Nick Saban, Lane Kiffin and the year that changed Alabama football forever
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Chris Low
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ESPN Senior Writer- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
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Alex Scarborough
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Former Alabama quarterback Blake Sims can still remember the feeling of that November night back in 2014, when he and the offense were standing on the field in overtime at LSU. With his mind and heart racing, and the roar of the Tiger Stadium crowd ringing in his ears, he shot a glance toward the sideline and Coach Nick Saban.
Less than 24 hours earlier, first-year offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin had come up with the play Sims was about to run — a daring empty set formation in which the offensive tackle, Cam Robinson, would split out wide as a receiver and a 305-pound reserve tight end, Brandon Greene, would masquerade as an offensive lineman.
The play’s name doubled as a sort of warning: Oh S—.
“Oh s—,” Kiffin had warned Sims and the rest of the offense in their team meeting the night before, “if this doesn’t work guys, Coach Saban is going to kill me on national TV.”
No blood was shed. LSU didn’t pick up on the fact that Greene was actually an eligible receiver as he took off down the middle of the field after the snap and hauled in a 24-yard reception on the first play of overtime, leading to a 20-13 Alabama victory.
“We all would have gotten our asses ripped if that play would have gone bad, not just Coach Kiffin,” said Sims. “But that’s the way Coach Kiffin rolls. He wasn’t afraid to take chances, and Coach Saban wasn’t afraid to take a chance on him … and you see what that’s led to.”
Much like that play, the pairing of Saban and Kiffin was high-risk at the time and genius in hindsight. And it has now come full circle, as Kiffin returns to Bryant-Denny Stadium to lead his No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels against Saban’s No. 1 Crimson Tide on Saturday.
But for the full story of how Alabama transitioned from ground-and-pound, game-manager-QB Alabama to high-flying, first-round-QBs-and-Heisman-winning-receiver Alabama, you have to start at the beginning, when the sport’s most accomplished head coach took a chance on the game’s most controversial.
“I remember him saying, ‘I feel like our offense is a Lamborghini, but it’s headed off a cliff,’ meaning we’ve got these great players, but are behind the times in what we’re doing,” said Kiffin, recalling their first meeting after he was hired. “So we needed to change directions.”
When Auburn‘s Chris Davis caught a missed field goal and returned it more than 100 yards for a game-winning score against Alabama in the 2013 Iron Bowl, it did more than dash any hope the Crimson Tide had of winning a third straight national title. It was the final signal to Saban that his program, despite its massive success, was beginning to grow outdated offensively.
While Auburn, Ole Miss and Texas A&M were using tempo and spreading the field with multiple receivers, Alabama was still putting the quarterback under center and still utilizing a mostly pro-style playbook.
Saban, after years of complaining about how the rules were tilted in favor of spread and hurry-up offenses, was eager to play catch-up with what he called the “fastball guys.”
So two weeks after losing to Auburn, an unlikely visitor started popping up at the Alabama practice field.
Center Ryan Kelly barely noticed Kiffin hanging around those few days in mid-December. Former coaches were always coming and going, Kelly explained.
Speaking to reporters, Saban brushed off the importance of Kiffin’s visit. Never mind that Kiffin was one of the most eccentric and divisive figures in college football. The 38-year-old had recently been fired by USC and was only four years removed from bailing on Tennessee after just one season.
Saban said hosting Kiffin was an opportunity for “professional development.”
“Obviously,” Kelly said, “that was the precursor to what was coming.”
Sims, who was a backup at the time but knew Kiffin from his recruitment by Tennessee, was one of the few players who put two and two together.
“I said, ‘We’re about to be deadly, so cold, because I knew what he would do with our offense,” Sims said. “It was the perfect combination, Coach Saban’s structure and Coach Kiffin’s creative mind.”
In the ensuing days, everything came together. Offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier told Sims and the rest of the offense that the Sugar Bowl would be his last game at Alabama. He would eventually land the same job at Michigan.
During a recruiting visit, Saban pulled linebackers coach Lance Thompson into a bathroom for a private conversation. Thompson said Saban told him he had three candidates in mind to replace Nussmeier. One of them was Kiffin, whom Thompson had worked for at Tennessee.
Saban asked Thompson, now the inside linebackers coach at Florida Atlantic, what he thought.
“I’d hire Lane, Coach,” he said. “He’s a special playcaller.”
Thompson then paused for a moment. “But I’m going to tell you,” he said, “he’s different.”
Saban didn’t miss a beat.
“I ain’t never had a problem handling an assistant coach,” he said.
Saban would ultimately hire Kiffin and test his confidence about wrangling wayward assistants. Their personalities were so far apart, Thompson said, “It was like Earth and Neptune.”
Their collision caused fireworks at times, but more importantly, it led to the total re-imagining of Alabama’s offense and the resurrection of Kiffin’s career.
“People think you go there because it’s coaching rehab and you get a head job somewhere else,” Kiffin told ESPN earlier this week. “I guess that’s one way to approach it, and some people do. But for me, I look back at all of the things I learned under [Saban] that made me a better coach despite everything that’s been said about our time together and any differences we might have had.”
There were plenty of skeptics when Saban brought Kiffin on board.
“A lot of people might have been surprised when I brought Lane in as coordinator, probably even here in the building,” Saban told ESPN. “But I wanted to grow on offense. We needed to grow, and I felt like he was the best guy at that time to help us do that.”
But this wouldn’t be a simple course correction. Because while Saban wanted to implement the spread and use more tempo, Kiffin had very little history of doing either. At Tennessee and USC, he had run a similar pro-style attack as Alabama.
“He researched all that stuff and we’d go over it,” Saban said. “… So I was kinda learning it from him, and he was learning it from other people.”
For much of the next two years, Kiffin did his homework on those coaches and teams running up-tempo offenses with run-pass elements (RPOs). He paid careful attention to what his former USC brethren Steve Sarkisian was doing as head coach at Washington, racking up more than 600 total yards of offense in a game five times during the 2013 season.
There were also talks with Tom Herman when he was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State and Doug Meacham at TCU. Kiffin said he remained in touch with Chip Kelly, who was then in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles after coaching against Kiffin while at Oregon.
That April, during Kiffin’s first spring at Alabama, the Crimson Tide hosted their annual coaching clinic. There were a few usual suspects, such as former Alabama coaches Gene Stallings and Sylvester Croom, but among the headliners was someone with no ties to the school or Saban: Baylor coach and hurry-up offensive guru Art Briles, who was later fired in response to a review of the school’s handling of sexual assault allegations against students, including several football players.
Thompson said Briles’ attendance was no coincidence.
“There’s not a coach that comes to a clinic that Nick doesn’t sit down with individually and talk to and the coaches on the offensive and defensive side of the ball talk to those guys, too,” Thompson said. “Every coach from another program, every coach that’s brought in for an interview, is brought in for a purpose.”
That purpose: “To gain new information.”
Saban and Kiffin left no stone unturned. In their second year together, no-huddle guru Eric Kiesau was brought in on staff as an offensive analyst. Kiesau, now the receivers coach at Auburn, worked under Sarkisian at Washington and was previously the offensive coordinator at Colorado and passing game coordinator at Cal. He was a valuable sounding board for Kiffin on such things as using the sideline boards that help teams go faster on offense.
Alabama ran what was then a school-record 1,088 offensive plays in 2015 after running 1,018 the year before. The Tide had not run more than 898 plays in a season the previous four years.
“Everybody says that I go through so many guys on offense,” Saban said. “Look, I learn from all of them. We went through a transformation when Lane was here … intentionally. It was intentional. I wanted to, and he wanted to, too, and we’ve continued to build.”
The transition wasn’t seamless, though.
For instance: Kelly remembers how frustrated he was when he found out Kiffin wanted to scrap the traditional way quarterbacks signaled for the snap with a voice command like “hike” in favor of clapping. Kelly said he let it be known to his coaches, “How does this make sense? Like, anybody could be clapping, right?”
“There was give and take,” explained Kelly, who’s in his sixth season with the Indianapolis Colts.
That applied to the staff’s interaction with Kiffin, too.
One time, Kelly recalled, he thought offensive line coach Mario Cristobal was going to lose it on Kiffin.
“He was so close to walking into Lane’s office and strangling him,” Kelly said. “Because they were going out to practice and there were five new plays we hadn’t installed and no one could find Lane.”
Over time, Saban grew increasingly frustrated with what he said was a lack of organization on Kiffin’s part.
“I wanted things done a certain way,” Saban said. “I wanted the coaches to meet. I wanted everybody to have input, and that was not his style. Some of the other coaches complained to me about it, and I always said that Lane would be a much better head coach than an assistant because when you’re a head coach and you know what you want to do and you’ve got organized people around you, you really don’t need to be that organized.”
One assistant on that staff joked: “Lane Kiffin and Nick Saban were a match. It just wasn’t a match made in heaven.”
When Kiffin arrived in Tuscaloosa, Blake Sims was no one’s idea of a record-setting SEC quarterback.
AJ McCarron had just left for the NFL and former Florida State quarterback Jake Coker had transferred in, becoming the odds-on favorite to start.
The coaching staff loved Sims, but if they’re being honest, Thompson said, they were surprised he beat out Coker and started a single game. Even Sims admits he was recruited to Alabama by Kirby Smart to play free safety.
“He’d been Scout Team Player of the Week more than anybody in the history of Alabama football,” Thompson said. “He had played running back, safety, quarterback, wide receiver, fullback, tight end. The kid had played everything. He was such a wonderful kid. And then Lane comes and does a great job giving him stuff that he can do.”
Overnight, Sims transformed into a deft distributor of the football, making the kind of quick decisions that allowed All-America receiver Amari Cooper and others to shine.
That was no accident. Thompson said that during the lead up to the season, Kiffin shortened the terminology of plays, cutting 10-word calls in half in order to make things easier for everyone to understand, and Sims responded by passing for more yards (3,487) than anybody in the history of Alabama football had passed for to that point.
Whereas the year before the playbook was the size of a novel, Kelly said, it was suddenly condensed into a single chapter.
“To see a guy who really before that played kind of a utility role turn into that,” Kelly said of Sims, “that was obviously a lot of Lane’s doing. He figured out, ‘What’s this guy’s strengths and weaknesses? And let’s play those advantages.’ And that’s ultimately what he did the entire time I was there my last two years.”
Sims, who’s now playing for the Spokane Shock in the Indoor Football League, would watch tape with Cooper and running back Kenyan Drake of those Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush USC teams when Kiffin was the Trojans’ offensive coordinator.
“It was always amazing to me how he could see one play on film and know immediately how to attack the defense,” Sims said. “He could be standing on the field and see things nobody else could.”
In the Florida game that 2014 season, Kiffin pulled Sims and Drake aside before the game and devised a play for Drake to split out wide as a receiver and Sims to line up in the shotgun in an empty backfield. On the first play from scrimmage, Drake found himself matched against a linebacker and ran a slant-and-go route for an easy 75-yard touchdown reception.
Kiffin said they had never practiced that “sluggo” route with Drake, but that he had this “weird feeling” that Florida would be in man coverage.
“I thought about it at the last minute and we put it in in the locker room,” said Kiffin, adding that Bush ran that similar play for a long touchdown against Notre Dame in 2004.
Sims said: “You just didn’t see Alabama doing that kind of stuff before, but Coach Kiffin was great at getting those matchups and finding ways to get his best players the ball.”
As a playcaller, Saban said Kiffin is the best he’s ever been around.
“He sees how the defense is playing something and immediately knows,” Saban said, snapping his fingers for emphasis, “what he wants to run against it.”
Saban said it’s overblown how much he and Kiffin sparred that first season when it came to football, and even Kiffin said his former boss is a much better listener than people give him credit for, at least in certain areas.
“On scheme, yes. But not when it comes to the structure of his program,” Kiffin said. “It’s hard to argue that, though. Look at his success.”
Much like the “Oh S—” play against LSU, Kiffin was renowned for coming up with plays, even on the day of the game, which made it seem like sandlot football at times. And yes, he felt the wrath of Saban, but it usually was worth it.
“Some people when you get into a very structured environment like that, and you’re a little bit more of a color-outside-the-lines guy, just sort of conform because they can’t handle the pressure if it doesn’t work,” said one former assistant coach. “But Lane would color outside the lines, and if two things worked and two things didn’t work, it wouldn’t faze him mentally.”
One of the areas where Kiffin and Saban clashed most often that first season came on resting players, especially during practice, and cutting down on their reps later in the season.
“I didn’t win many of those battles,” Kiffin said. “Maybe the only one was with Amari Cooper. He was like a running back that year. He caught 124 passes [a school record]. I just wanted to make sure he still had his legs at the end of the season.”
Saban admits that he’s old-school, but not to the point of being stubborn.
“I’m old-school when it comes to doing things right and being disciplined, all that,” Saban said. “I’m not old-school in the technical aspects of playing the game. There are differences, and I don’t think people get that sometimes.
“So I do listen. I listen a lot, listened to Lane [on Cooper]. That’s how you learn. Now, there are some things I’m just not willing to compromise.”
While there might have been some concession on Cooper and his reps that season, a coach on that staff said Saban is unwavering when it comes to practice.
“That wasn’t going to change, and it hasn’t changed,” the coach said. “And anybody who tells you it has changed is lying. The process is the process, and the way [Saban] develops his football team with practice reps is not changing. It wasn’t Lane’s call. It wasn’t my call. It was Coach Saban’s call.
“Now, do you have the ability to get him to expand what his intent is? Yes. Lane got him to expand his thinking on certain things. But change? No.”
In retrospect, Kiffin admits he might have pressed too hard, too fast, on some things.
“Like a lot of people do with a previous marriage, I look back on my time now with Coach Saban differently,” Kiffin said. “I could have done much better with just, ‘Yes sir,’ no matter what he said. That’s the majority of that building. They say, ‘Yes sir,’ no matter what. I guess my issue was that I wasn’t trained that way. I’d been a head coach and an assistant coach to Pete Carroll for six years. Pete Carroll was not a ‘yes sir’ environment at all. It was more, ‘Bring up whatever ideas you want.'”
The two coaches stood at midfield inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium after one of the most exciting games last season, Kiffin wearing an Ole Miss powder blue face covering and shaking hands with his former boss, Saban, who was decked out in head-to-toe Alabama gear.
For three-and-a-half quarters, they’d gone back and forth in an old fashioned shootout. The final score: Alabama 63, Ole Miss 48.
“That damn Lane, he said it after they played us last year: ‘Everything I told him for three years, he wrote it down,'” Saban would later say. “He said after the game, ‘I did every one of those things in the game.’
“He had a whole notepad of s— that I said was a problem to defend when we were together, and he said, ‘I did every one of them.'”
The two teams combined for an SEC-record 1,370 yards, and the 647 yards the Rebels churned out were the most ever against the Tide.
It was a brand of football that would have been unrecognizable to Saban and Kiffin when they first joined up.
“We used to recruit against Alabama at USC and Tennessee and would say, ‘You’re a great quarterback. Don’t go there. You’ll be a game manager. You’ll never put up big numbers,'” Kiffin said. “If you were a receiver, we would tell them not to go there. Here’s Julio Jones, one of the greatest of all time, and he never had more than 78 catches, but yet, Amari Cooper had 124.”
In Kiffin’s three years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide went 40-4 with three College Football Playoff appearances and one national title.
Of course, Kiffin didn’t make it to Alabama’s national title game that third year, having been dismissed by Saban earlier in the week. Kiffin had taken the head job with Florida Atlantic, and Saban felt he wasn’t paying enough attention to his Alabama job after the Tide scored just two offensive touchdowns and freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for just 57 yards in a 24-7 national semifinal win over Washington.
“You look back and see where you were at fault and what I could have done better,” Kiffin said. “Now I find myself, which is like a kid saying and doing the same things his parents did, sounding a lot like Coach Saban.”
When Kiffin left, Alabama’s offense only got scarier under future offensive coordinators Mike Locksley and Sarkisian. The program produced first-round quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, who put up record-setting numbers when throwing to game-breaking, first-round receivers like Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Jaylen Waddle and last year’s Heisman winner, DeVonta Smith.
As one longtime staffer said, “There’s a narrative out there that the Alabama offense exploded under Lane, and he was a big part of where it is now. But the explosion came under Locks and Sark. Just look at the numbers over the last few years.”
Alabama has finished in the top three in scoring offense each of the past three years and sixth or better in both total offense and passing offense the past three years. Of course, it has done it with three straight quarterbacks drafted in the first round and nine running backs, receivers or tight ends selected in the first three rounds of the past four drafts.
Most in and around the program at that time also agree that Kiffin’s offenses helped to attract more elite skill people.
“I do feel like the numbers we put up and what we started to do on offense made it more attractive for offensive skill players to come from all over the country because they always got great defensive players,” Kiffin said.
Just look at Alabama’s current quarterback: Bryce Young, a former five-star prospect from California. Young’s father said they didn’t take Alabama seriously as a destination until they saw the offense begin to open up with Tagovailoa at quarterback. Young’s top receivers are John Metchie III, who is from Canada, and Jameson Williams, a Missouri native who transferred from Ohio State.
Kiffin enters Saturday’s matchup with another another California quarterback, Matt Corral, who is lighting up the scoreboards with 14 touchdowns in three games and is the new Heisman front-runner.
Ole Miss leads the country in scoring offense (52.7 points per game) and total offense (638.3 yards per game), while Alabama isn’t far behind with 46.5 points per game.
And now Kiffin has a chance to make good on an old promise when he returns to Tuscaloosa for the first time as an opposing head coach since 2009, his lone year at Tennessee. After the Vols pushed the Tide to the brink before losing, 12-10, the cocky young Kiffin met Saban at midfield.
“Good game, but we’ll get you the next time.”
Baseball’s winter meetings are just around the corner, and we’re ready for some blockbuster deals.
We’ve already seen some intriguing trades this offseason with the New York Mets acquiring Marcus Semien from the Texas Rangers for Brandon Nimmo and the Boston Red Sox adding Sonny Gray to their pitching staff — but there are even bigger stars who could move in the weeks ahead.
With that in mind, we asked our MLB insiders to give us their preferred destination for some of the biggest names in our ranking of the top 25 MLB offseason trade candidates.
Where did we send All-Stars Ketel Marte and Byron Buxton? Which Red Sox outfielder is on the move in our deals? And which contenders get starting pitching help? Let’s find out.
The Arizona Diamondbacks should trade Ketel Marte to the …
The Mariners plucked from the D-backs to jolt their offense just five months ago, acquiring corner infielders Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. They should do so again, this time for Marte, the star second baseman who can be had for the right return. The Mariners have a need for another bat, and Marte would represent a massive upgrade over merely re-signing Suarez or Jorge Polanco.
Marte would slide in perfectly ahead of fellow All-Stars Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, allowing Randy Arozarena to join Naylor in the middle of the lineup and giving Seattle arguably the best offense in the American League — to pair with what is likely the best pitching staff.
Coming off a gut-wrenching loss in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, it’s the perfect move to push the M’s toward the first World Series berth in franchise history. And whether it’s Cole Young, Michael Arroyo or Felnin Celesten, the Mariners might have enough young, promising middle infielders to satisfy the D-backs’ likely desire for a Marte replacement without parting with Colt Emerson. — Alden Gonzalez
Boston Red Sox for Jarren Duran and Kyson Witherspoon
Roman Anthony‘s 2025 breakout rendered Duran expendable in an outfield already staffed by Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, both of whom offer more remaining team control. And with presumed second-baseman-of-the-future Kristian Campbell struggling as a rookie (86 OPS+, -1.0 WAR), the door swung open for a move of this magnitude.
Duran’s proclivity for doubles and triples will play beautifully in Arizona (just ask Corbin Carroll), and Witherspoon, the No. 15 pick in the 2025 MLB draft, instantly becomes the club’s best pitching prospect. — Paul Hembekides
The Red Sox should trade Duran to the Philadelphia Phillies for a package including Alec Bohm
These lightning-rod players certainly are not coming off their best seasons and perhaps each needs the proverbial change of scenery. The Red Sox may need someone to play third base, and Bohm, while no match for Alex Bregman, is a capable hitter and defender. The Phillies could then get a more consistent third baseman who enjoys playing in Philadelphia. Duran would fill Philadelphia’s center-field need, and it would create some opportunity in a crowded Boston outfield. See, trades can work out for both teams! — Eric Karabell
The Cleveland Guardians should trade Steven Kwan to the Mariners
I love this idea so much. Kwan would return to the West Coast, about a four-hour drive from Corvallis, where he starred for Oregon State. He would give the Mariners a needed upgrade at a corner outfield spot, teaming with Julio Rodriguez to improve Seattle’s outfield defense. Most importantly, he could slide into the leadoff spot, offering contact and OBP as a poor man’s Ichiro, hitting in front of Cal Raleigh, Rodriguez and his old Cleveland teammate, Josh Naylor. Let’s get this done. — Bradford Doolittle
The Chicago White Sox should trade Luis Robert to the …
Rumor mill whispering has connected the Royals with Boston’s Jarren Duran for the hefty price of Cole Ragans, a swap I can’t abide. The Royals have starting pitching depth, but they don’t have ace depth and Ragans must stay. Duran isn’t an ideal defensive fit for Kauffman Stadium if you view him as a center fielder, and the Royals need to upgrade at that spot badly.
Enter Robert, whose work on strike zone judgment seemed to be paying off in the latter stages of last season. He’s younger than Duran and has more power upside without sacrificing speed and defense. The Royals’ new hitting staff is hyper-focused on improving pitch recognition, and I’d love for them to be new voices in Robert’s ear. The Royals could keep Ragans and modulate their rotation/prospect return based on Chicago’s willingness to pay down some of Robert’s $20 million for next season. Alas, this would be more palatable from a payroll perspective if the Royals had not already committed $8 million to run it back with Jonathan India. — Doolittle
Philadelphia Phillies
It’s time. Time for Robert to find a new home and time for the Phillies to mix up the vibe a little. It’s possible that last season proved to be Robert’s current floor — good defense and 33 stolen bases will help teams win games. But it’s also just as possible the ceiling is still within reach after years of underachieving. First off, getting away from the Sox did wonders for Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn. The same could be true of Robert if he moves on, especially since he’s finally cutting his chase rate down.
Now put him in a good lineup with even better pitches to see — and perhaps a little more pressure to perform — and the Philles could just get the best version of him. He has hit 28 homers in a season. He hit .338 in another (partial year). Put it all together and he might turn into a steal. — Jesse Rogers
The Minnesota Twins should trade …
Byron Buxton to the Los Angeles Dodgers
This falls into the “Why? Because they can, that’s why” category. Enough is never enough for the Dodgers, so this offseason’s installment of making sure they have too much is the acquisition of the best available player at the position they may actually believe they need to upgrade. Move Andy Pages to left, slot Buxton into the top half of the lineup and go for three in a row. — Tim Keown
Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers to the New York Yankees
Ryan was a popular name at the trade deadline, and he’s popular again coming off an All-Star season with a rebuilding team and two years of team control remaining. The Yankees don’t need another front-line starter, but Ryan would give them some rotation stability early in the season with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon (and Clarke Schmidt) on the injured list, and he would supply insurance should Cole or Rodón return later than usual or struggle upon return. And as these front offices like to say: You can never have enough starting pitching.
Jeffers would quench the Yankees’ need for a right-handed-hitting catcher after carrying three left-handed-hitting catchers for most of the 2025 season. He would platoon with Austin Wells and allow the Yankees to move Ben Rice, also a left-handed hitter, to first base full time. — Jorge Castillo
The Miami Marlins should trade Edward Cabrera to the New York Yankees for Jasson Dominguez If the Yankees are truly focused on keeping their payroll in check, they’ll need to be creative in how they address their roster shortcomings. Presuming that the team re-signs Cody Bellinger, the Yankees will already have spent a majority of their available free agent budget, and have rendered Dominguez excess with top prospect Spencer Jones also an in-season debut candidate. Dominguez is the kind of high-ceiling youngster the Marlins should be targeting.
Cabrera is a talented, albeit injury-prone, starter who can provide critical rotation depth while the team waits for the healthy returns of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt. Dominguez’s two additional years of team control might make this a slight overpay for the Yankees, but Cabrera’s projected $3.7 million salary via arbitration could make him an ideal, budget-conscious acquisition. — Tristan Cockcroft
The Miami Marlins should trade Sandy Alcantara to the Athletics
Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery was a disaster in the first half of the season, as he entered the All-Star break with an ERA over 7.00. That made him untradeable; it made no sense for the Marlins to deal him at the trade deadline with his value at a low point. Alcantara found his groove over his final 12 starts, however, posting a 3.13 ERA with 69 strikeouts versus 18 walks over 77 innings. That is a pitcher you can trade.
The A’s finished 26th in rotation ERA in 2025. The rotation did struggle at home with a 5.52 ERA in Sacramento, so that led to inflated ERAs, but their only two returning starters with more than 100 innings are Jeffrey Springs (4.11 ERA) and Luis Severino (4.54 ERA). It will be difficult for the A’s to lure a decent free agent starter to Sacramento — they had to overpay to sign Severino — so a trade makes sense. Alcantara is signed to a reasonable $17.3 million for 2026 with a $21 million club option for 2027, which even the A’s can afford.
With the Nick Kurtz-led offense, the A’s will score runs. If they can build out the rotation and bullpen, they have the look of 2026’s sleeper playoff team. Their farm system is improved and they have low-salaried pitching depth with guys like Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins to throw back Miami’s way. — David Schoenfield
The Washington Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore to the Baltimore Orioles
Gore hasn’t quite made the jump to front-line starter. But he has some qualities in common with higher slot lefties who are front-line types, like Blake Snell and Max Fried, so there could be another gear to be teased out. He also comes with two years of control and his arbitration number this year should land around $5 million.
In return, the Orioles can send a prospect package featuring OFs Slater de Brun and Austin Overn and RHPs Esteban Mejia and J.T. Quinn to the Nationals. Baltimore doesn’t have to include C Samuel Basallo and can probably hang onto OF Dylan Beavers, as well. I have the Nats opting for a larger package of players that includes what I think will be the sorts of prospects we’ll see new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni target. It helps new execs coming from the draft side of evaluation to target recent draftees, with de Brun and Quinn from the 2025 draft and Overn from the 2024 draft. — Kiley McDaniel
The Pittsburgh Pirates should trade Mitch Keller to the San Francisco Giants
The Giants churned through 15 starting pitchers in 2025 and return only three who made more than 10 starts (Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp), leaving two slots to fill aside from the depth that is required in this era. Hayden Birdsong and Carson Whisenhunt are the top internal candidates, but adding a veteran starter for stability looks like an offseason necessity.
Keller is signed for three more years at an AAV of about $18.5 million. His biggest strength has been durability and consistency, making at least 29 starts four seasons in a row and averaging 183 innings and 2.1 WAR the past three seasons. His strikeout rate has declined from 25.5% to 20.0% since 2023, so that’s a minor cause for concern, but moving to the Giants, with better defense behind him and a stellar catcher in Patrick Bailey should help lower his batting average allowed.
Do the Pirates have enough rotation depth to trade Keller? Probably not, but they do have Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Johan Oviedo and Bubba Chandler, plus Jared Jones returning from injury, so there at least is the makings of an exciting young rotation even without Keller. They need power, however, so the ask from the Giants would be their top prospect, first baseman Bryce Eldridge.
Too steep for the Giants? Perhaps. Eldridge has 35-homer potential and has produced while being very young for his levels, reaching Triple-A in 2025 at just 20 years old. He does have some holes in his game, with a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he struggled against breaking balls from left-handers, he has below-average speed and his defense at first base is fringy, so he might be a DH with Rafael Devers playing first. The power is real — enough for the Pirates to gamble on and also real enough that he’ll be difficult to pry away from the Giants. — Schoenfield
Inspirational thought of the week:
Hang on to your hopes, my friend
That’s an easy thing to say
But if your hopes should pass away
Simply pretend that you can build them again
Look around
The grass is high
The fields are ripe
It’s the springtime of my life
Seasons change with the scenery
Weavin’ time in a tapestry
Won’t you stop and remember me?
Look around
Leaves are brown
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter
— “Hazy Shade of Winter” by Simon & Garfunkel (or The Bangles, depending on how old you are)
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located behind the bank of telephones used to raise money for the “Free Marty Smith From Oxford” fund, we once again look at the calendar and realize that it is conference championship weekend, which means it’s time for the Bottom 10 to make like Lane Kiffin and run for the exit amid a shower of boos and middle fingers.
The #Bottom10 Selection Committee is currently in session to determine the final 2025 rankings, to be revealed Wednesday morning. pic.twitter.com/WdIvj25gNW
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) December 2, 2025
Due to an unprecedented coaching carousel that was so bonkers we’ve renamed it the Coaching Tilt-A-Whirl, the candidates list for this year’s Bottom 10 Selection Committee grew faster than Brian Kelly’s lawyers’ billable hours invoice. The final roster: me, my dad, Captain Morgan (aka my stepdad), Mike Gundy, current Northwest Oklahoma defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville and former Texas State Armadillos head coach Ed “Straight Arrow” Gennero. As our vote began, we were joined by Sam Pittman, who pulled up to our meeting spot, a truck stop behind the Gaylord Texan where the fancy-schmancy CFP committee was gathered, behind the wheel of a shoebox Winnebago blasting Skynyrd and towing a pontoon boat upon which the name “S.S. YESSIR” was airbrushed.
Once again, we leaned on our Bottom 10 FPI formula. No, not the ESPN Football Power Index, but rather the Faux Pas Index. Because everyone loves math.
Teams receive one point for each win, minus one point for each loss, minus one point for each loss of their longest losing streak of the year, plus a minus-10 bonus if that longest losing streak is currently active. We also subtract the number of points they have surrendered on the season from the number of points they scored, subtract or add points based on their season turnover margin and subtract their weakness of schedule (WoS) ranking. If a team fired its head coach, that earns a 50-point subtraction, aka the Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus.
Divide all of that by the number of games played, and there’s your Bottom 10 FPI score. Because it’s hard numbers, the results are indisputable. And by hard numbers we mean that we made the formula so badly complicated that it’s too hard to dispute because it’s not worth wasting the effort to do so.
With apologies to Tennessee wide receiver Deon Hardin, Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy, Rice running back D’Andre Hardeman Jr. and Steve Harvey, here’s the final 2025 Bottom 10 rankings.
Wins: +0
Losses: -12
Longest losing streak: -12 (current -10)
Point differential: -330 (133 for, 463 against)
Turnover margin: -7
WoS: -91
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -450
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -37.5
The Minuetmen had their wet hay in the barn a full week early, having played their final game of the season on the Tuesday afternoon prior to Thanksgiving. Once they got that hay into the barn, they remembered that the Salem witch trials took place in Massachusetts and they immediately burned that barn down in an effort to exorcise their Bottom 10 demons.
Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -8
Point differential: -241 (213 for, 454 against)
Turnover margin: +2
WoS: -104
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -359
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -29.9
The Bearkats kompiled a two-win kampaign, but still katapulted kompletely over kontenders who had only one win. How did they akkomplish that? Bekause of a krappy strength of skedule and a defense too frekwently skored upon.
Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -11 (current -10)
Point differential: -230 (170 for, 400 against)
Turnover margin: -5
WoS: -30
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
Total: -346
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -28.8
Many people in the greater Stillwater area had told me that I didn’t have the Kowboys, er, sorry, Cowboys ranked low enough. When we did the FPI math, it backed up those complainers with the same amount of force that it backed down their team.
Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -9 (current -10)
Point differential: -217 (237 for, 454 against)
Turnover margin: -11
WoS: -66
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -323
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -26.9
Just as the arithmetic hurt OSU, it helped GSU, which jumped/fell from No. 2 to No. 4. That might not seem like much, but for a team that last won a game more than 80 days ago, you’ll take whatever good news you can get.
5. The Lane Train
Marty said if I didn’t have Kiffin in the Coveted Fifth Spot again this week he would beat me over the head with the turkey leg he wasn’t able to eat with his family on Thanksgiving because he had to go to Oxford and hold a microphone instead.
Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -6 (current -10)
Point differential: -148 (222 for, 370 against)
Turnover margin: -4
WoS: -90
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
Total: -316
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -26.3
Easily, the most vocal “How can we not be ranked?!” #Bottom10Lobbying crowd of 2025 was Rams Nation. And when we did the math, they were proved right as Colorado State leapt like a ram from a rock formation off the Waiting List into the canyon of nearly the top/bottom five. Now they have hired professional Bottom 10 rehabilitation specialist Jim Mora, who totally ruined what used to be the Bottom 10’s version of Chiefs vs. Eagles, UMess vs. U-Can’t, by inexplicably turning the Huskies into winners.
Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -9 (current -10)
Point differential: -264 (172 for, 436 against)
Turnover margin: -8
WoS: -70
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -271
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -22.5833333
Niners officials reached out to the Bottom 10 committee to see if perhaps they might receive bonus cool points for the fact that their record was 1-9 when Georgia paid them $1.9 million to play “between the hedges.” We told them no, but only after reaching out to UNCC math professors, who assured us that the laws of natural numerical law would not allow us to add something called “cool points” to something called a “Faux Pas Index.” Speaking of math, Charlotte also is now part of a Bottom 10 FPI first, a numerical tie! With whom … ?
Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -7
Point differential: -135 (218 for, 353 against)
Turnover margin: -11
WoS: -60
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
Total: -271
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -22.5833333
It should be no surprise that the Beavers would be in some weird spot here after spending their entire season stuck in a bizarro Bottom 10 vortex. They won the tiebreaker with Charlotte via one common opponent, Appalachian State. The Niners lost at home to the Mountaineers 34-11, while the Beavs lost in Boone by only four points. One of only a pair of members of the 2Pac conference, Oregon State had already beaten its only league colleague, Warshington State, in Week 10, but then immediately lost to Sam Houston. Then all the Beavers had to do was beat Wazzu again to depart these rankings for good, but they lost 32-8. Now they will do like all beavers and spend the winter not hibernating, but packed into a mud lodge with other beavers, shivering and seeing who has to swim out under the ice to get food. In related news, that’s also how we on the Bottom 10 Selection Committee spent this week. We sent Mike Gundy out to get the food because his haircut totally looks like a beaver.
Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -5 (current -10)
Point differential: -85 (280 for, 365 against)
Turnover margin: -12
WoS: -109
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -229
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -19.1
Representatives of the Minors crashed our committee meeting to remind us that while they understood they would likely have to be ranked, no matter what the math said, they had to be ranked above/below Sam Houston because they beat the Bearkats head-to-head. But we didn’t hear any of that because when we say they crashed our meeting, they literally crashed our meeting. Paydirt Pete had to use his pickax to pry the UTEP conversion van free from where it ran into the trailer carrying Pittman’s pontoon boat.
Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -10
Point differential: -88 (305 for, 393 against)
Turnover margin: -9
WoS: -54
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -169
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -14.08
The Golden Beagles were in a Bottom 10 peloton to the finish line, which was more like that scene at Oklahoma a few weeks ago when the Sooners got lost in the smoke of their stadium entrance and fell over each other, piling up like firewood for winter. In the end, Arkansaw and Pur-don’t received too big of a Power 4 WoS boost, while Muddled Tennessee and No-vada both had the audacity to win two out of their final three games, hitting the Raise Hell Praise Dale 3-victory mark and moving out of the running. We started to do the FPI math on a few other teams, but when the batteries ran out in our Texas Instruments calculator, Coach Pittman, relieved his former Hogs missed the final cut, announced, “I’ll go to the store, but it won’t be to buy batteries. It’ll be to buy beer.” Meeting adjourned.
Waiting List: Arkansaw Fightin’ Former Petrinos, No-vada, San No-sé State, Pur-don’t, Muddled Tennessee State, Northern Ill-ugh-noise, ULM (pronounced “Uhlm”), conference tiebreakers that require slide rules.
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