Nick Saban, Lane Kiffin and the year that changed Alabama football forever
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Chris Low
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ESPN Senior Writer- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
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Alex Scarborough
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Former Alabama quarterback Blake Sims can still remember the feeling of that November night back in 2014, when he and the offense were standing on the field in overtime at LSU. With his mind and heart racing, and the roar of the Tiger Stadium crowd ringing in his ears, he shot a glance toward the sideline and Coach Nick Saban.
Less than 24 hours earlier, first-year offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin had come up with the play Sims was about to run — a daring empty set formation in which the offensive tackle, Cam Robinson, would split out wide as a receiver and a 305-pound reserve tight end, Brandon Greene, would masquerade as an offensive lineman.
The play’s name doubled as a sort of warning: Oh S—.
“Oh s—,” Kiffin had warned Sims and the rest of the offense in their team meeting the night before, “if this doesn’t work guys, Coach Saban is going to kill me on national TV.”
No blood was shed. LSU didn’t pick up on the fact that Greene was actually an eligible receiver as he took off down the middle of the field after the snap and hauled in a 24-yard reception on the first play of overtime, leading to a 20-13 Alabama victory.
“We all would have gotten our asses ripped if that play would have gone bad, not just Coach Kiffin,” said Sims. “But that’s the way Coach Kiffin rolls. He wasn’t afraid to take chances, and Coach Saban wasn’t afraid to take a chance on him … and you see what that’s led to.”
Much like that play, the pairing of Saban and Kiffin was high-risk at the time and genius in hindsight. And it has now come full circle, as Kiffin returns to Bryant-Denny Stadium to lead his No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels against Saban’s No. 1 Crimson Tide on Saturday.
But for the full story of how Alabama transitioned from ground-and-pound, game-manager-QB Alabama to high-flying, first-round-QBs-and-Heisman-winning-receiver Alabama, you have to start at the beginning, when the sport’s most accomplished head coach took a chance on the game’s most controversial.
“I remember him saying, ‘I feel like our offense is a Lamborghini, but it’s headed off a cliff,’ meaning we’ve got these great players, but are behind the times in what we’re doing,” said Kiffin, recalling their first meeting after he was hired. “So we needed to change directions.”
When Auburn‘s Chris Davis caught a missed field goal and returned it more than 100 yards for a game-winning score against Alabama in the 2013 Iron Bowl, it did more than dash any hope the Crimson Tide had of winning a third straight national title. It was the final signal to Saban that his program, despite its massive success, was beginning to grow outdated offensively.
While Auburn, Ole Miss and Texas A&M were using tempo and spreading the field with multiple receivers, Alabama was still putting the quarterback under center and still utilizing a mostly pro-style playbook.
Saban, after years of complaining about how the rules were tilted in favor of spread and hurry-up offenses, was eager to play catch-up with what he called the “fastball guys.”
So two weeks after losing to Auburn, an unlikely visitor started popping up at the Alabama practice field.
Center Ryan Kelly barely noticed Kiffin hanging around those few days in mid-December. Former coaches were always coming and going, Kelly explained.
Speaking to reporters, Saban brushed off the importance of Kiffin’s visit. Never mind that Kiffin was one of the most eccentric and divisive figures in college football. The 38-year-old had recently been fired by USC and was only four years removed from bailing on Tennessee after just one season.
Saban said hosting Kiffin was an opportunity for “professional development.”
“Obviously,” Kelly said, “that was the precursor to what was coming.”
Sims, who was a backup at the time but knew Kiffin from his recruitment by Tennessee, was one of the few players who put two and two together.
“I said, ‘We’re about to be deadly, so cold, because I knew what he would do with our offense,” Sims said. “It was the perfect combination, Coach Saban’s structure and Coach Kiffin’s creative mind.”
In the ensuing days, everything came together. Offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier told Sims and the rest of the offense that the Sugar Bowl would be his last game at Alabama. He would eventually land the same job at Michigan.
During a recruiting visit, Saban pulled linebackers coach Lance Thompson into a bathroom for a private conversation. Thompson said Saban told him he had three candidates in mind to replace Nussmeier. One of them was Kiffin, whom Thompson had worked for at Tennessee.
Saban asked Thompson, now the inside linebackers coach at Florida Atlantic, what he thought.
“I’d hire Lane, Coach,” he said. “He’s a special playcaller.”
Thompson then paused for a moment. “But I’m going to tell you,” he said, “he’s different.”
Saban didn’t miss a beat.
“I ain’t never had a problem handling an assistant coach,” he said.
Saban would ultimately hire Kiffin and test his confidence about wrangling wayward assistants. Their personalities were so far apart, Thompson said, “It was like Earth and Neptune.”
Their collision caused fireworks at times, but more importantly, it led to the total re-imagining of Alabama’s offense and the resurrection of Kiffin’s career.
“People think you go there because it’s coaching rehab and you get a head job somewhere else,” Kiffin told ESPN earlier this week. “I guess that’s one way to approach it, and some people do. But for me, I look back at all of the things I learned under [Saban] that made me a better coach despite everything that’s been said about our time together and any differences we might have had.”
There were plenty of skeptics when Saban brought Kiffin on board.
“A lot of people might have been surprised when I brought Lane in as coordinator, probably even here in the building,” Saban told ESPN. “But I wanted to grow on offense. We needed to grow, and I felt like he was the best guy at that time to help us do that.”
But this wouldn’t be a simple course correction. Because while Saban wanted to implement the spread and use more tempo, Kiffin had very little history of doing either. At Tennessee and USC, he had run a similar pro-style attack as Alabama.
“He researched all that stuff and we’d go over it,” Saban said. “… So I was kinda learning it from him, and he was learning it from other people.”
For much of the next two years, Kiffin did his homework on those coaches and teams running up-tempo offenses with run-pass elements (RPOs). He paid careful attention to what his former USC brethren Steve Sarkisian was doing as head coach at Washington, racking up more than 600 total yards of offense in a game five times during the 2013 season.
There were also talks with Tom Herman when he was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State and Doug Meacham at TCU. Kiffin said he remained in touch with Chip Kelly, who was then in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles after coaching against Kiffin while at Oregon.
That April, during Kiffin’s first spring at Alabama, the Crimson Tide hosted their annual coaching clinic. There were a few usual suspects, such as former Alabama coaches Gene Stallings and Sylvester Croom, but among the headliners was someone with no ties to the school or Saban: Baylor coach and hurry-up offensive guru Art Briles, who was later fired in response to a review of the school’s handling of sexual assault allegations against students, including several football players.
Thompson said Briles’ attendance was no coincidence.
“There’s not a coach that comes to a clinic that Nick doesn’t sit down with individually and talk to and the coaches on the offensive and defensive side of the ball talk to those guys, too,” Thompson said. “Every coach from another program, every coach that’s brought in for an interview, is brought in for a purpose.”
That purpose: “To gain new information.”
Saban and Kiffin left no stone unturned. In their second year together, no-huddle guru Eric Kiesau was brought in on staff as an offensive analyst. Kiesau, now the receivers coach at Auburn, worked under Sarkisian at Washington and was previously the offensive coordinator at Colorado and passing game coordinator at Cal. He was a valuable sounding board for Kiffin on such things as using the sideline boards that help teams go faster on offense.
Alabama ran what was then a school-record 1,088 offensive plays in 2015 after running 1,018 the year before. The Tide had not run more than 898 plays in a season the previous four years.
“Everybody says that I go through so many guys on offense,” Saban said. “Look, I learn from all of them. We went through a transformation when Lane was here … intentionally. It was intentional. I wanted to, and he wanted to, too, and we’ve continued to build.”
The transition wasn’t seamless, though.
For instance: Kelly remembers how frustrated he was when he found out Kiffin wanted to scrap the traditional way quarterbacks signaled for the snap with a voice command like “hike” in favor of clapping. Kelly said he let it be known to his coaches, “How does this make sense? Like, anybody could be clapping, right?”
“There was give and take,” explained Kelly, who’s in his sixth season with the Indianapolis Colts.
That applied to the staff’s interaction with Kiffin, too.
One time, Kelly recalled, he thought offensive line coach Mario Cristobal was going to lose it on Kiffin.
“He was so close to walking into Lane’s office and strangling him,” Kelly said. “Because they were going out to practice and there were five new plays we hadn’t installed and no one could find Lane.”
Over time, Saban grew increasingly frustrated with what he said was a lack of organization on Kiffin’s part.
“I wanted things done a certain way,” Saban said. “I wanted the coaches to meet. I wanted everybody to have input, and that was not his style. Some of the other coaches complained to me about it, and I always said that Lane would be a much better head coach than an assistant because when you’re a head coach and you know what you want to do and you’ve got organized people around you, you really don’t need to be that organized.”
One assistant on that staff joked: “Lane Kiffin and Nick Saban were a match. It just wasn’t a match made in heaven.”
When Kiffin arrived in Tuscaloosa, Blake Sims was no one’s idea of a record-setting SEC quarterback.
AJ McCarron had just left for the NFL and former Florida State quarterback Jake Coker had transferred in, becoming the odds-on favorite to start.
The coaching staff loved Sims, but if they’re being honest, Thompson said, they were surprised he beat out Coker and started a single game. Even Sims admits he was recruited to Alabama by Kirby Smart to play free safety.
“He’d been Scout Team Player of the Week more than anybody in the history of Alabama football,” Thompson said. “He had played running back, safety, quarterback, wide receiver, fullback, tight end. The kid had played everything. He was such a wonderful kid. And then Lane comes and does a great job giving him stuff that he can do.”
Overnight, Sims transformed into a deft distributor of the football, making the kind of quick decisions that allowed All-America receiver Amari Cooper and others to shine.
That was no accident. Thompson said that during the lead up to the season, Kiffin shortened the terminology of plays, cutting 10-word calls in half in order to make things easier for everyone to understand, and Sims responded by passing for more yards (3,487) than anybody in the history of Alabama football had passed for to that point.
Whereas the year before the playbook was the size of a novel, Kelly said, it was suddenly condensed into a single chapter.
“To see a guy who really before that played kind of a utility role turn into that,” Kelly said of Sims, “that was obviously a lot of Lane’s doing. He figured out, ‘What’s this guy’s strengths and weaknesses? And let’s play those advantages.’ And that’s ultimately what he did the entire time I was there my last two years.”
Sims, who’s now playing for the Spokane Shock in the Indoor Football League, would watch tape with Cooper and running back Kenyan Drake of those Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush USC teams when Kiffin was the Trojans’ offensive coordinator.
“It was always amazing to me how he could see one play on film and know immediately how to attack the defense,” Sims said. “He could be standing on the field and see things nobody else could.”
In the Florida game that 2014 season, Kiffin pulled Sims and Drake aside before the game and devised a play for Drake to split out wide as a receiver and Sims to line up in the shotgun in an empty backfield. On the first play from scrimmage, Drake found himself matched against a linebacker and ran a slant-and-go route for an easy 75-yard touchdown reception.
Kiffin said they had never practiced that “sluggo” route with Drake, but that he had this “weird feeling” that Florida would be in man coverage.
“I thought about it at the last minute and we put it in in the locker room,” said Kiffin, adding that Bush ran that similar play for a long touchdown against Notre Dame in 2004.
Sims said: “You just didn’t see Alabama doing that kind of stuff before, but Coach Kiffin was great at getting those matchups and finding ways to get his best players the ball.”
As a playcaller, Saban said Kiffin is the best he’s ever been around.
“He sees how the defense is playing something and immediately knows,” Saban said, snapping his fingers for emphasis, “what he wants to run against it.”
Saban said it’s overblown how much he and Kiffin sparred that first season when it came to football, and even Kiffin said his former boss is a much better listener than people give him credit for, at least in certain areas.
“On scheme, yes. But not when it comes to the structure of his program,” Kiffin said. “It’s hard to argue that, though. Look at his success.”
Much like the “Oh S—” play against LSU, Kiffin was renowned for coming up with plays, even on the day of the game, which made it seem like sandlot football at times. And yes, he felt the wrath of Saban, but it usually was worth it.
“Some people when you get into a very structured environment like that, and you’re a little bit more of a color-outside-the-lines guy, just sort of conform because they can’t handle the pressure if it doesn’t work,” said one former assistant coach. “But Lane would color outside the lines, and if two things worked and two things didn’t work, it wouldn’t faze him mentally.”
One of the areas where Kiffin and Saban clashed most often that first season came on resting players, especially during practice, and cutting down on their reps later in the season.
“I didn’t win many of those battles,” Kiffin said. “Maybe the only one was with Amari Cooper. He was like a running back that year. He caught 124 passes [a school record]. I just wanted to make sure he still had his legs at the end of the season.”
Saban admits that he’s old-school, but not to the point of being stubborn.
“I’m old-school when it comes to doing things right and being disciplined, all that,” Saban said. “I’m not old-school in the technical aspects of playing the game. There are differences, and I don’t think people get that sometimes.
“So I do listen. I listen a lot, listened to Lane [on Cooper]. That’s how you learn. Now, there are some things I’m just not willing to compromise.”
While there might have been some concession on Cooper and his reps that season, a coach on that staff said Saban is unwavering when it comes to practice.
“That wasn’t going to change, and it hasn’t changed,” the coach said. “And anybody who tells you it has changed is lying. The process is the process, and the way [Saban] develops his football team with practice reps is not changing. It wasn’t Lane’s call. It wasn’t my call. It was Coach Saban’s call.
“Now, do you have the ability to get him to expand what his intent is? Yes. Lane got him to expand his thinking on certain things. But change? No.”
In retrospect, Kiffin admits he might have pressed too hard, too fast, on some things.
“Like a lot of people do with a previous marriage, I look back on my time now with Coach Saban differently,” Kiffin said. “I could have done much better with just, ‘Yes sir,’ no matter what he said. That’s the majority of that building. They say, ‘Yes sir,’ no matter what. I guess my issue was that I wasn’t trained that way. I’d been a head coach and an assistant coach to Pete Carroll for six years. Pete Carroll was not a ‘yes sir’ environment at all. It was more, ‘Bring up whatever ideas you want.'”
The two coaches stood at midfield inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium after one of the most exciting games last season, Kiffin wearing an Ole Miss powder blue face covering and shaking hands with his former boss, Saban, who was decked out in head-to-toe Alabama gear.
For three-and-a-half quarters, they’d gone back and forth in an old fashioned shootout. The final score: Alabama 63, Ole Miss 48.
“That damn Lane, he said it after they played us last year: ‘Everything I told him for three years, he wrote it down,'” Saban would later say. “He said after the game, ‘I did every one of those things in the game.’
“He had a whole notepad of s— that I said was a problem to defend when we were together, and he said, ‘I did every one of them.'”
The two teams combined for an SEC-record 1,370 yards, and the 647 yards the Rebels churned out were the most ever against the Tide.
It was a brand of football that would have been unrecognizable to Saban and Kiffin when they first joined up.
“We used to recruit against Alabama at USC and Tennessee and would say, ‘You’re a great quarterback. Don’t go there. You’ll be a game manager. You’ll never put up big numbers,'” Kiffin said. “If you were a receiver, we would tell them not to go there. Here’s Julio Jones, one of the greatest of all time, and he never had more than 78 catches, but yet, Amari Cooper had 124.”
In Kiffin’s three years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide went 40-4 with three College Football Playoff appearances and one national title.
Of course, Kiffin didn’t make it to Alabama’s national title game that third year, having been dismissed by Saban earlier in the week. Kiffin had taken the head job with Florida Atlantic, and Saban felt he wasn’t paying enough attention to his Alabama job after the Tide scored just two offensive touchdowns and freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for just 57 yards in a 24-7 national semifinal win over Washington.
“You look back and see where you were at fault and what I could have done better,” Kiffin said. “Now I find myself, which is like a kid saying and doing the same things his parents did, sounding a lot like Coach Saban.”
When Kiffin left, Alabama’s offense only got scarier under future offensive coordinators Mike Locksley and Sarkisian. The program produced first-round quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, who put up record-setting numbers when throwing to game-breaking, first-round receivers like Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Jaylen Waddle and last year’s Heisman winner, DeVonta Smith.
As one longtime staffer said, “There’s a narrative out there that the Alabama offense exploded under Lane, and he was a big part of where it is now. But the explosion came under Locks and Sark. Just look at the numbers over the last few years.”
Alabama has finished in the top three in scoring offense each of the past three years and sixth or better in both total offense and passing offense the past three years. Of course, it has done it with three straight quarterbacks drafted in the first round and nine running backs, receivers or tight ends selected in the first three rounds of the past four drafts.
Most in and around the program at that time also agree that Kiffin’s offenses helped to attract more elite skill people.
“I do feel like the numbers we put up and what we started to do on offense made it more attractive for offensive skill players to come from all over the country because they always got great defensive players,” Kiffin said.
Just look at Alabama’s current quarterback: Bryce Young, a former five-star prospect from California. Young’s father said they didn’t take Alabama seriously as a destination until they saw the offense begin to open up with Tagovailoa at quarterback. Young’s top receivers are John Metchie III, who is from Canada, and Jameson Williams, a Missouri native who transferred from Ohio State.
Kiffin enters Saturday’s matchup with another another California quarterback, Matt Corral, who is lighting up the scoreboards with 14 touchdowns in three games and is the new Heisman front-runner.
Ole Miss leads the country in scoring offense (52.7 points per game) and total offense (638.3 yards per game), while Alabama isn’t far behind with 46.5 points per game.
And now Kiffin has a chance to make good on an old promise when he returns to Tuscaloosa for the first time as an opposing head coach since 2009, his lone year at Tennessee. After the Vols pushed the Tide to the brink before losing, 12-10, the cocky young Kiffin met Saban at midfield.
“Good game, but we’ll get you the next time.”
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Jake Trotter
James Franklin says he “can’t wait” to coach again on the heels of Penn State firing him last weekend.
“I don’t know anything else,” Franklin said Saturday during ESPN’s “College GameDay.” “I’ve been doing this for 30 years. I don’t have hobbies. I don’t golf. I don’t fish. This has been such a big part of my identity, such a big part of my family. We love it.”
On Sunday, Penn State let Franklin go after the Nittany Lions’ 0-3 start in Big Ten play.
Off last year’s appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals, the team began the year ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. But it lost in double overtime at home to Oregon on Sept. 27, dropping Franklin to 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents, including 1-18 against top-10 Big Ten teams in conference games.
Then, with losses to UCLA and Northwestern, Penn State became the first team since the FBS and FCS split in 1978 to lose consecutive games while favored by 20 or more points in each game, according to ESPN Research.
Before a team meeting Sunday afternoon, Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft told Franklin he was being fired.
“I was in shock,” Franklin admitted. “I’m still working through it myself. It feels surreal.”
Franklin won 104 games and reached double-digit wins six times in 11 seasons at Penn State, including the previous three.
“I had a great run there,” he said. “Penn State was good to me and my family.”
Franklin noted that Penn State’s expectations skyrocketed during his tenure, especially this past offseason. That, in turn, led to his firing when it became clear the Nittany Lions wouldn’t meet them this season.
“We created that pressure,” he said. “That’s the thing that I’m most proud of.”
Franklin, 53, is still owed $49 million from his buyout, the second largest in college football history. He said now that he is looking forward to achieving what he couldn’t at Penn State.
“I thought we were going to win a national championship there,” he said. “We were close. That goal hasn’t changed. We’re just going to go win a national championship somewhere else now.”
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David Hale
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Carson Beck‘s last throw — his fourth interception of the night — came on a hot route after Louisville brought the blitz. The play should have worked, Beck said, but there was “a miscommunication” and his receiver ran the wrong route. Instead, the pass found Louisville’s T.J. Capers with 32 seconds to play, and Miami‘s undefeated season came to an end.
That was the story of Miami’s night — one mistake on top of another, until it was finally too much for the No. 2 team in the country to overcome.
“That’s a really poor job of execution and discipline,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said after the Hurricanes fell 24-21 to the unranked Cardinals. “That’s all of us — every player and every coach. After having some really good performances and working really hard in practice, that’s really disappointing. We’re all disappointed. We’re all pissed.”
Louisville schemed a nearly flawless game to torment the Hurricanes.
The Cardinals scored on their first two drives, showing Miami’s defense looks it hadn’t seen all season, safety Zechariah Poyser said.
“They had a great plan,” Poyser said. “They came up with stuff we hadn’t seen and we had to adjust to. We weren’t prepared for it.”
The early 14-0 deficit combined with a Louisville defensive game plan aimed at stuffing the run and forcing Beck to make quick throws frustrated the Miami offense too.
Beck’s first pick came on a deep shot over the middle in which Antonio Watts made a nifty catch for the interception. Beck went deep again on the next drive and was again picked off. He threw his third interception on a fourth-down heave in the fourth quarter that appeared to be a dagger for the Hurricanes, but Keionte Scott‘s forced fumble on the Cardinals’ ensuing drive set up a touchdown that gave Miami life.
Trailing by three with all three timeouts left, Miami drove to the Louisville 31, but coming off a timeout, Beck dodged pressure and tossed toward the sideline, where tight end Elija Lofton was out of position and the ball was intercepted, sealing the Louisville win.
It has become a familiar theme for Miami, which lost for the 10th time as a favorite under Cristobal.
Despite the ugly performance, however, Beck insisted this loss wasn’t going to define Miami.
“It’s a good thing we play 12 games and not just one,” Beck said. “That’s the biggest thing we have to realize is there’s more opportunities. We’ve been very successful this season, and shoot, we laid an egg tonight. I have to prepare better, I have to play better, and I’m going to do that and come back with fire.”
Cristobal lamented a bevy of missed opportunities, from costly penalties to the four turnovers, but insisted his team is built to withstand the loss.
“You better go out and do something about it,” Cristobal said. “That’s got to be the complete commitment of everybody. There’s no B.S., and there’s no excuse making. There’s no time to sit around and do anything but go back to work and go get better. That’s what it takes. That’s what real men do, and that’s what we have to do.”
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Bill Connelly
How do you take a typical big October Saturday and make it even better? By making every big game a toss-up.
Week 8 of the college football season gives us four ranked-versus-ranked battles — an enormous SEC tripleheader and Notre Dame-USC. My SP+ ratings project all four games to finish within 3.1 points. Then, there’s the Holy War (BYU-Utah), too. All in all, there are 60 FBS games this weekend, and 32 are projected within one score. We should get at least a couple of classics among the big games, and the thing that separates college football Saturdays from anything else — sheer depth of action — should be on overwhelming display.
There are stakes, too! The SEC race is a giant, puddly mess and should achieve only so much clarity Saturday. Notre Dame-USC could be a College Football Playoff eliminator of sorts (and, oh yeah, it might be the last Notre Dame-USC game for a while). The Big 12 and ACC each have a couple of huge, title-related games, and we’ve got hierarchy-establishing battles in the Sun Belt and Mountain West.
It’s a lot! Let’s make some sense of it! Here’s everything you need to follow in a blood pressure-unfriendly Week 8.
All times are ET and are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
The SEC tripleheader of Greg Sankey’s dreams
The SEC has no team in the current SP+ top four, but it has eight of the next nine and 10 of the top 19. The conference title race and the race for playoff spots are up for grabs, especially if Alabama stops producing loads of close-game magic.
On Saturday, the league gets the tripleheader of its dreams: Three ranked-versus-ranked battles, all relative toss-ups. The results could establish a bit of a hierarchy within the conference, or they could make things even messier. (As always, I root for the latter.)
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Last year, Georgia muscled its way to the SEC title, boasting less upside than we’re used to seeing but grinding out victories. But the Dawgs’ high floor was no match for Ole Miss’ high ceiling: The Rebels dominated the line of scrimmage and posted a shockingly easy 28-10 win; it was Georgia’s worst loss since 2019.
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Highlight: No. 16 Rebels keep playoff hopes alive with win vs. No. 3 Georgia
Ole Miss wins the turnover battle, highlighted by stripping the ball from the Bulldogs in the final minutes to solidify a 28-10 win and stay relevant for the College Football Playoff.
If Georgia starts slowly again, Ole Miss might lay down the hammer again. UGA trailed Auburn by 10 points in the first quarter, Alabama by 14 in the second and Tennessee by 14 in the first. That Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs fought back to win two of those three is another reminder that Kirby Smart teams will always be tough as hell. But they lost to Bama, and they might not be able to afford more than one additional defeat. At some point, they have to play well.
Ole Miss messed around last week, stumbling through early miscues and needing a late stop to beat Washington State 24-21. Maybe the Rebels were looking ahead to UGA? This is a pretty big game, and not only because the Rebels haven’t won in Athens since 1996. They’re one of only two remaining unbeatens in the parity-soaked SEC, and a win here would put them in excellent position to reach their first SEC championship game.
Georgia holds the advantages on the ground, while Ole Miss controls the air.
When Georgia has the ball
Yards per carry (not inc. sacks): Georgia offense 79th, Ole Miss defense 106th
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss defense 36th, Georgia offense 59th
When Ole Miss has the ball
Yards per carry: Georgia defense sixth, Ole Miss offense 63rd
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss offense fifth, Georgia defense 64th
Georgia should exploit Ole Miss’ shoddy run defense, but the Rebels could counter that with a big passing advantage. Trinidad Chambliss distributes the ball well to five or six receivers, and even after playing against Auburn’s destitute passing game, Georgia still ranks 117th in sack rate. Chambliss will likely have time to find open guys.
Current line: UGA -7.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 1.8 | FPI projection: UGA by 5.3
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
One of my go-to measures is postgame win expectancy. It takes a look at the predictive stats a game produces — the stuff that feeds into SP+ — and says, “With these stats, Team A would have won this game X% of the time.” It’s a good way of measuring if a team is winning in a sustainable way or if good fortune is involved.
In wins over both Georgia and Missouri, Alabama’s postgame win expectancy was under 30%. The Crimson Tide handily lost the explosiveness battle against UGA and was both less efficient and less explosive than Mizzou, but won both games with the right combination of clutch-play success. That’s tough to sustain over a long season, though Kalen DeBoer’s 2023 Washington team did just that while reaching the national title game. If you have the right quarterback play and close-game execution, you can pull one over on the stat gods for a little while. The stat gods always get their comeuppance — as in 2024, when DeBoer’s Bama looked like an 11-win team on paper but went 9-4 — but you can ride it out for a bit.
The close games probably aren’t going to stop. Of Bama’s next six games, five are projected within 8.1 points. The Tide will require a lot more of what we saw against Missouri, when Ty Simpson didn’t produce dazzling stats (23 completions for 200 yards with four sacks) but completed some brilliant passes on third- and fourth-and-long.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers: Full Highlights
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers: Full Highlights
Simpson has gotten help from running back Jam Miller of late, though he is questionable for Saturday (concussion protocol). The defense got carved up on a couple of drives but controlled Mizzou for a large run in the middle of the game.
Tennessee is in pretty good shape, playoff-wise; the 5-1 Vols are projected favorites in each game after this. But their defense, so excellent last year, ranks just 78th in points allowed per drive. Luckily for the Vols, they’re 12th on offense. They are efficient via run and pass, and RB DeSean Bishop and WRs Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews are big-play machines. But if Simpson made key passes against Georgia’s and Mizzou’s defenses, it’s pretty hard to see Tennessee stopping the Tide when it counts.
Current line: Bama -7.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.1
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (noon, ABC)
LSU’s defense, problematic for years, has allowed more than 10 points just once, combining great pass coverage with great ball pursuit and allowing the 5-1 Tigers to mostly overcome their worst offense of the Brian Kelly era. Vandy, meanwhile, won its first five games by an average of 32 points before red zone turnovers spoiled an upset bid against Bama. The Commodores’ defense is unexceptional, but the offense ranks second nationally in success rate. Quarterback Diego Pavia keeps the offense moving (and grinds out some hard rushing yards), while running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young are averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
Close games will determine the SEC’s CFP bids; five of Vandy’s last six games are projected within 6.5 points, per SP+, and four of LSU’s last six are within 4.5. The loser of this one will likely have spent its final mulligan and will have to win a lot of coin-flip games to stay in the hunt.
Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.4 | FPI projection: Vandy by 2.7
For the Jeweled Shillelagh (and playoff hopes)
No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC)
I’m struggling to get past the idea that we might lose Notre Dame-USC, at least for a little while, for embarrassingly silly reasons. Just in case sanity doesn’t prevail, we deserve a barn burner Saturday night.
In a rivalry based on long-term momentum swings, Notre Dame has held the advantage for most of the past 15 years, but this one appears relatively even on paper. Since losing its first two games by a combined four points — both to current top-five teams (Miami and Texas A&M) — Notre Dame has won four games by an average of 30. The defense had big-play issues early on but has allowed 27 total points in the past three weeks and should keep improving now that corner Leonard Moore is healthy again.
Quarterback CJ Carr has been absolutely dynamite. Despite being a redshirt freshman, and despite substandard performance from the offensive line — which has allowed quite a few negative run plays and merely average pressure numbers — he’s 11th in Total QBR. On third-and-7 or more, Notre Dame ranks second nationally with a 44% conversion rate. Carr’s ceiling is spectacularly high.
Of course, USC’s Jayden Maiava ranks first in Total QBR. He’s completing 72% of his passes at 15.1 yards per completion. That’s quite the high-end combination.
Maiava has done plenty of damage against bad defenses, but the Trojans topped 30 points against Illinois and Michigan, too. It helps to have a run game you can lean on, and USC’s might be the most underrated in the country. Backs Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders and King Miller have combined to average 191.7 yards per game and 7.0 per carry. Jordan and Sanders got hurt against Michigan — they’re both likely out Saturday — so Miller, a walk-on redshirt freshman, went for 158 yards. That says great things about the O-line, especially considering it has been battling some injuries.
That leaves the USC defense. A consistent liability in Lincoln Riley’s nine years as a head coach, the Trojans have been mostly solid this year, but they got beat for some long passes against Michigan State and Illinois. That will probably happen Saturday, too, but if they can hold the Irish to 31 points or so, Maiava & Co. could top that.
Current line: Irish -9.5 (up from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 3.1 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.1
This week in the Big 12
There’s nothing I enjoy more than a nice, silly Big 12 title race, and Texas Tech’s current dominance levels suggest at least half of the Big 12 championship game matchup is as good as settled. That could change, obviously, but when you lose your quarterback to injury twice in three games and extend your lead by 20-plus points in both games, you’re proving something. We’ll see if the Red Raiders can keep proving something against the defending conference champs.
Regardless of Tech’s dominance, there are two spots available in Jerry World, and the fight for the other spot (at least) is up for grabs. The winner of Saturday night’s Holy War in Provo, Utah, will become the favorite to land that one.
No. 7 Texas Tech at Arizona State (4 p.m., Fox)
Arizona State was hit-and-miss early last season, then lost a game with quarterback Sam Leavitt injured. That summarizes this season as well. Leavitt should return after missing last week’s loss to Utah, and if the Sun Devils hit the gas like last year, everything’s still on the table.
Last week was pretty demoralizing, though. Leavitt’s presence wouldn’t have done much to stop Utah from scoring touchdowns on six of seven possessions. The Sun Devils rank 71st in points per drive and 94th in points allowed; they simply might not have enough to offer.
A few weeks ago, Texas Tech pushed around Utah just like the Utes did to ASU. Even if quarterback Behren Morton (questionable) can’t go, Will Hammond has played well — he isn’t as consistent a passer, but he offers far more with his legs. And either way, ASU still has to score on a defense ranked fifth in points allowed per drive and featuring two of the best defenders in college football (linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey).
Current line: Tech -7.5 (down from -10.5) | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.3
No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU (8 p.m., Fox)
Utah has responded as well as possible to the blowout loss to Tech. Outmuscled at the line of scrimmage by the Red Raiders, the Utes have done all the pushing since, walloping West Virginia and Arizona State by a combined 90-24. They aren’t creating many big plays — an issue for years — but quarterback Devon Dampier & Co. are second in rushing success rate and eighth in passing success rate. BYU’s defense also is pretty efficient, though the Cougars have allowed an increasing point total in every game this season. At some point, that becomes an obvious problem, but this is the second-best defense Utah has faced.
Of course, Utah’s defense is by far the best Bear Bachmeier has faced. The unbeaten BYU freshman quarterback came through with his legs in last week’s comeback win over Arizona, but he also went 12-for-29 passing with two interceptions. Utah’s defense is awesome at the front (where end John Henry Daley is a breakout star) and back (where the Utes rank sixth in completion rate allowed).
Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 0.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 0.3
The ACC title race takes shape, too
As with Texas Tech in the Big 12, Miami’s fast start has established a clear front-runner in the ACC title race. But two teams will make the ACC championship game, and five are unbeaten early in ACC play (Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia and SMU). They’re among six teams, along with Louisville, who have at least a 7% chance at the conference title, per SP+.
Conveniently, four of those six teams are playing head-to-head this weekend.
Louisville at No. 2 Miami (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
Louisville is 4-1 and a projected favorite in six of its last seven games. The Cardinals appear likely to post at least nine wins for the third straight time under Jeff Brohm. The defense has been excellent, and running back Isaac Brown remains one of the most explosive in college football.
The Cardinals still feel pretty disappointing this season, though, at least on offense. Brown and Duke Watson have been slowed because of injuries, and quarterback Miller Moss struggled on several dropbacks in their loss to Virginia. The offensive line is allowing loads of negative plays. All’s forgiven if they win Friday night, but they’ll have to raise their game.
This is about where things went awry for a fast-starting Miami team in 2024, but with Rueben Bain Jr. and Mohamed Toure anchoring a far more stable defense and the offensive line living up to hype, the Hurricanes don’t seem interested in allowing that to happen again. Granted, the offense hasn’t been quite as effective as it has gotten credit for, mainly due to a lack of explosiveness — they’re 13th in success rate but just 126th in yards per successful play. Carson Beck hasn’t been amazing on third downs either, and if Louisville can knock the Hurricanes off schedule, the Cardinals’ dynamite pass rush could impact the game. But Louisville will still need to steer out of the mud and start scoring points.
Current line: Miami -13.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 7.9 | FPI projection: Miami by 12.4
No. 12 Georgia Tech at Duke (noon, ESPN)
In Duke’s first big home game of 2025, the Blue Devils suffered five turnovers against Illinois in a 45-19 loss. They won a majority of the game’s plays but were on the wrong end of all the catastrophes. (They seemed to let that loss beat them the next week, too, falling behind 24-3 to Tulane before losing by seven.)
Now comes another big home game. The Blue Devils have won their first three conference games by an average of 43-19, and Darian Mensah, responsible for three of those five Illinois turnovers, has been increasingly dominant.
Georgia Tech has drifted a bit in the other direction. The Yellow Jackets remain unbeaten, but after early wins over Colorado and Clemson, they’ve underachieved against SP+ projections for three straight games. They can still run the heck out of the ball with QB Haynes King and RBs Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley, but they are struggling to knock opponents off schedule and rush the passer. Duke can defend the run and stay on schedule beautifully.
Current line: Duke -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.3 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.9
A pair of elimination games (of sorts) in the Group of 5
Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, five Group of 5 teams have at least a 5% chance of reaching the CFP: Memphis (43%), USF (30%), Tulane (11%), UNLV (8%) and Boise State (6%). Memphis and USF have easier games that were relegated to the Playlist below, but BSU and UNLV face off, and a maddening Tulane takes on an Army team capable of just about anything.
UNLV at Boise State (3:30 p.m., FS1)
Since the start of 2023, UNLV is 26-8 — 0-3 against Boise State and 26-5 against everyone else. Is this the year the Rebels finally clear the Boise hurdle?
BSU’s four wins and two losses have come by an average of 24 points. Either it has all worked or it all hasn’t — that’s how things go when your offense is inefficient but explosive and you make sure your opponents are the same. The Broncos make every game a big-play contest.
UNLV is all-or-nothing in a different way: all offense, no defense. The Rebels are averaging more than 38 points per game but allowing nearly 30. They seek turnovers to an almost self-destructive degree and give up 6.3 yards per play. But with quarterback Anthony Colandrea, running back Jai’Den Thomas and receiver Jaden Bradley, they can keep up with anyone in a big-play contest.
Current line: BSU -12.5 (up from -10.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 7.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 5.7
Army at Tulane (noon, ESPNU)
“We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games. And I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature. We’ve got to grow up fast.” That’s what Tulane’s Jon Sumrall said after last week’s narrow 26-19 win over East Carolina, and, well, that about summed it up. The Green Wave boast major upside and two power-conference wins, they’ve been inconsistent and have slipped to 64th in SP+. But they’re still 5-1! If they shift into gear, they could easily be in the CFP.
Army lost to Tarleton State and got blown out by ECU but also beat Kansas State and won its past two games by 35 combined points. The Black Knights can’t even slightly pass, but they don’t lose yards and the defense prevents big plays. Can Tulane summon maturity and move to 6-1?
Current line: Tulane -9.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 11.2
Week 8 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And we’re in a funk! The sport has had plenty of chaos, but the superfecta’s gone 0-3 since a 3-1 start.
It’s time to rectify that by taking down a Big Ten favorite. SP+ says there’s only a 32% chance that Maryland (72% win probability over UCLA), Nebraska (74% over Minnesota), Oregon (85% over Rutgers) and Indiana (95% over Michigan State) all win. It’s rally time!
Week 8 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. (Don’t worry, I’m not trying to convince you to watch Iowa-Penn State. Our relationship means too much to me to do that to you.)
Friday evening
No. 25 Nebraska at Minnesota (8 p.m., Fox). Two fun, young QBs — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola and Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey — have, with help from top-30 defenses, led their teams to a combined 9-3 record, but Nebraska is looking for more. The Huskers have a 30% chance at a 10-2 finish or better, per SP+; that would be their first such season in ages and would theoretically insert them into the playoff race.
Current line: Nebraska -8.5 (up from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 10.2 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 7.2
North Carolina at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). North Carolina got a bye week to read all those “How it’s all gone wrong for Bill Belichick” stories. This is one of only two remaining games in which they’re not projected as a double-digit underdog. If they can’t get past Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal — also coming off a bye week — they might not get past anyone.
Current line: Cal -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 8.7 | FPI projection: Cal by 7.5
Early Saturday
No. 14 Oklahoma at South Carolina (12:45 p.m., SECN). OU rushed John Mateer back to action, but he was rusty and overwhelmed against Texas. South Carolina’s defense has stabilized significantly and could offer resistance, but at some point, the Gamecocks’ offense, currently 123rd in points per drive, needs to show up. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers isn’t getting much help, but he’s not helping himself enough, either.
Current line: OU -5.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 8.8 | FPI projection: OU by 1.1
Washington at Michigan (noon, Fox). I’m still confused by the lack of pollster love for 5-1 Washington. The unranked Huskies got far fewer AP votes than either two-loss Illinois or two-loss Michigan, but they can theoretically rectify that with a win in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines’ offense has no-showed in both losses, but Washington games can turn into track meets pretty easily.
Current line: Michigan -6.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 2.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 4.5
Baylor at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Revivalry is a Last Chance Saloon situation for a TCU team just 1-2 in Big 12 play. It’s probably noteworthy that BU’s Sawyer Robertson and TCU’s Josh Hoover will be passing against defenses that rank 103rd and 101st, respectively, in yards allowed per dropback. This game better have at least 70 combined points. (It did last year.)
Current line: TCU -2.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.8 | FPI projection: TCU by 3.2
Saturday afternoon
No. 4 Texas A&M at Arkansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Texas A&M has mastered the art of simply sitting on games, leaning heavily on a dynamite offensive line and pass rush and waiting for opponents to fall over. Arkansas just lights every game on fire; the Razorbacks have scored at least 31 points in five games and allowed at least 32 in four straight. They’ve almost beaten three ranked teams now — they’re dangerous, if self-destructive, underdogs.
Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 9.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 5.4
SMU at Clemson (3:30 p.m., ACCN). After terribly disappointing September campaigns, both Clemson and SMU — last year’s ACC championship game competitors — have stabilized with a pair of comfortable ACC wins. Clemson has been a bit more demonstrative, but the Tigers, at 2-2 in the ACC, are playing from behind; with a slight upset, SMU would be 3-0 in ACC play and back in the title conversation.
Current line: Clemson -9.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 4.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 3.3
Mississippi State at Florida (4:15 p.m., SECN). Mississippi State got a bye week after its disappointing performance against Texas A&M. Florida acquitted itself slightly better against the Aggies last Saturday, but after that ultra-physical affair, the Gators will have to deal with the ultra-fast MSU attack. Can they get receiver Dallas Wilson, the hero of the Texas game, going again?
Current line: Florida -9.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 2.6 | FPI projection: Florida by 4.4
Old Dominion at James Madison (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). This one was looking like it might be the G5 game of the week, but JMU’s offense underachieved for a second straight game in a narrower-than-expected win over Louisiana, and ODU self-destructed with five turnovers and three turnovers on downs in a huge loss to Marshall. This is still huge for Sun Belt East title purposes, at least.
Current line: JMU -1.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 5.4 | FPI projection: ODU by 0.8
No. 22 Memphis at UAB (4 p.m., ESPN2). Granted, there could be some UCLA-style, nothing-to-lose vibes from a UAB team that just fired coach Trent Dilfer. But that’s the only reason to think this one will be close. Memphis is running the ball brilliantly, and the Tigers’ defense is playing its best ball in more than a decade.
Current line: Memphis -22.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 27.0 | FPI projection: Memphis by 25.7
Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Granted, UCLA went from winless and hopeless to genuinely exciting overnight, so anything’s possible, but the team UCLA smoked last week — Michigan State — is also looking awfully hopeless. The most interesting thing about this one might be how Indiana responds to its greatest week of news clippings ever. Can the Hoosiers remain focused?
Current line: IU -27.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 26.4 | FPI projection: IU 26.9
UTSA at North Texas (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). North Texas let a huge opportunity slip through its fingers last week thanks to a 3½-minute, 28-0 run by USF in a 63-36 loss to the Bulls. Can the Mean Green avoid a hangover and remain in the American Conference race by taking care of an all-or-nothing UTSA and its all-or-nothing run game (Robert Henry Jr. and Will Henderson III: 1,004 yards at 7.3 per carry)?
Current line: UNT -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: UNT by 4.3 | FPI projection: UNT by 2.0
No. 1 Ohio State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., CBS). I can’t believe Wisconsin is making Luke Fickell coach this game before firing him.
Current line: OSU -25.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 25.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 23.4
Saturday evening
No. 16 Missouri at Auburn (7:45 p.m., SECN). Missouri had a golden opportunity to beat Alabama but couldn’t get the job done. If the Tigers rebound well, the CFP is still in play, but they can’t fall victim to Auburn’s nonsense. Hugh Freeze’s Tigers defended well enough to play Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Georgia achingly close but didn’t have the offense to seal the deal. Will they ever?
Current line: Mizzou -1.5 (flipped from Auburn -2.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 0.7
No. 6 Oregon at Rutgers (6:30 p.m., BTN). Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is on pace for 3,500 passing yards, and the Scarlet Knights have scored at least 28 points in five of six games. This is an offense capable of leading an upset, but the RU defense is just about Greg Schiano’s worst ever. Think that might hinder them against Dante Moore and the ridiculously efficient Oregon offense?
Current line: Oregon -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Oregon by 16.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 11.6
No. 21 Texas at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN). Kentucky might be a lost cause at this point — per SP+, the Wildcats’ odds of losing out (4%) aren’t that much lower than their odds of bowling (11%). But they defend the run pretty well and pressure quarterbacks. Either Arch Manning makes good plays against a bad secondary, or Kentucky gets enough stops to make this interesting.
Current line: Texas -12.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 14.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 10.6
Washington State at No. 18 Virginia (6:30 p.m., The CW). The transfer-driven UVA offense, led by QB Chandler Morris and RB J’Mari Taylor, has scored 30-plus points every week. The Wazzu defense, meanwhile, is confusing: The Cougs have allowed 59 points twice but have allowed 12.5 points per game in their four other games. The Hoos should handle this one, but Wazzu nearly stunned Ole Miss last week.
Current line: UVA -17.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 13.8 | FPI projection: UVA by 18.9
Florida Atlantic at No. 19 USF (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). This should be the fastest game of the week. In terms of seconds per play, USF ranks first and FAU ranks third. USF is faster, but four FAU games have topped 66 combined points. Even if this is an easy win for the Bulls, it should be pretty prolific.
Current line: USF -21.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 17.4 | FPI projection: USF by 19.6
Late Saturday
Florida State at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Florida State’s defense has underachieved for a while now, and the offense has slipped just enough to make that costly. The Noles have lost three games in a row, but while playing at Stanford requires a cross-country trip, it should be a get-right opportunity. The Cardinal’s most likely record right now? 3-9, which was their record the past four seasons.
Current line: FSU -18.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 19.3 | FPI projection: FSU by 11.1
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. (Yes, I’m giving you a week off from the WIAC race in Division III, even though No. 4 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 14 Wisconsin-Platteville should be pretty fantastic. Actually, watch that one too.)
NAIA: No. 7 Lindsey Wilson at No. 9 Campbellsville (12:30 p.m., YouTube). Led by prolific rusher Davontaye Saunders, LWU holds the No. 1 ranking in NAIA SP+, but the Blue Raiders should face a stiff test in the Battle of Highway 55. Campbellsville is averaging 43 points per game, and quarterback Jett Engle is willing to go for broke, for better (14.3 yards per completion, 14 TDs) or worse (seven INTs).
SP+ projection: LWU by 9.4
FCS: No. 11 North Dakota at No. 12 Southern Illinois (3 p.m., ESPN+). It’s not exactly a playoff eliminator, but it’s close. UND and SIU are 4-2 with losses only to FBS opponents (Kansas State and Purdue, respectively) and FCS heavyweights (Montana and North Dakota State). SIU dual-threat quarterback DJ Williams has five 200-yard passing games and two 100-yard rushing games, and UND’s relentless run game grinds opponents into dust.
SP+ projection: UND by 2.2
Division II: No. 3 West Florida at No. 8 West Alabama (6 p.m., FloCollege). Unbeaten Gulf South rivals face off in Livingston. UWA has topped 50 points in two straight games and doesn’t mind going full-on track meet with big-play receivers Dearrius Nelson and TD Parker. UWF, however, plays a bit more defense: Linebacker Ja’Kobe Clinton and tackle Kevin Roberts have already combined for 20 TFLs.
SP+ projection: UWF by 8.9
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