Helpful hint: Don’t call it the Chase. And don’t dare call it the Playoff, singular. That’s what they do over in college football, where only four teams are in the College Football Playoff field. Here in stock car country, there are 16 teams in the title fight, but like CFP and bowl season, those 16 teams share their postseason stage with a bunch of other teams that are competing for wins, but not for the championship.
Confused? You aren’t alone. But that’s why we’re here. To answer your stock car queries, no matter if you’ve been watching NASCAR since Richard Petty was battling Bobby Allison or if you don’t know the difference between Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe.
How does NASCAR’s postseason work? Who is in? Who is out (but also still out on the track)? How did we get here? Where are we going? Who is most likely to be standing in Victory Lane hoisting that very large Cup Series trophy 10 weeks from now? Grab a grease pencil and read ahead.
How’d we get here?
At the conclusion of what was easily the wackiest 26-race “regular season” since NASCAR’s so-called “Elimination Era” began in 2014, a whopping 15 of the 16 drivers who made the cut also won a race, and it would have been all 16 had Kansas Speedway winner Kurt Busch not been sidelined in late July by an ongoing bout with concussion-like symptoms.
The final open spot went to winless Ryan Blaney, who edged former Cup Series champ Martin Truex Jr. by a scant three points, but only because Austin Dillon was able to snake his way through a gigantic Big One crash at Daytona and went on to win the race by all of .128 seconds over a pair of guys who had already won a race this season. Had they won, Truex would be in the Playoff, too; or if Truex, who finished eighth, had managed to get by a couple of cars ahead of him, he would be and Blaney would be out. That’s how close it was.
This season is only the third in NASCAR’s nearly 75-year history that there were 16 different winners over the year’s first 26 races. The gold standard for competitive seasons in the modern era is still 2001, when 19 drivers won over 36 races. Considering that we’ve already had five first-time winners this year, Blaney and Truex are still winless, and another handful of drivers have had close calls but came up short (Bubba Wallace, second in Daytona 500; Chris Buescher, second at Sonoma; Corey Lajoie‘s battle with Elliott at Atlanta, etc.) there is still a chance to match or perhaps smash that mark.
Who is in?
The new, reset NASCAR playoff standings:
If you’re scoring at home — and we are — that’s five former Cup Series champions, only one former multiple-time champ, along with four playoffs rookies and one true rookie in Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric. As for the car manufacturers, Chevy leads the way with eight entries, followed by Ford (5) and Toyota (3).
What happens now?
The next 10 races will eliminate four racers every three weeks. If a driver wins one of those three, he automatically moves on to the next round. The remaining spots are determined by the points standings.
That’s 16 drivers contending in the first three races, 12 remaining in the next three, nine maintaining title hopes in the next three, and four drivers contesting the championship at the season finale at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 6. The top finisher of those four is your NASCAR Cup Series champion. Easy-peasy, right? Unless you’re one of those four.
“You think it’s going to be the same, just take care of your business and race and move on, right?” said Joey Logano, who has made it into that final quartet four times. “But there is a definite sense of increasing pressure. We have made it into the finale feeling like the favorites and we’ve made it feeling like the underdog. All I know is that, however you got there, when that green flag comes out and there is 300-something laps to race for everything, for the entire season, it’s like, ‘Holy cow, this is real right now!'”
The round of 16 begins this weekend with NASCAR’s oldest and most grueling speedway event, the venerable Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, a race and place that has been on the Cup Series calendar since its second-ever season in 1950. The elimination races for each Playoffs round are equally challenging. The Bristol night race marks the end of the round of 16, the Charlotte Roval closes out the round of 12, and the flat half-mile bullring Martinsville Speedway, the last track remaining from NASCAR’s first season of 1949, will determine which four will compete for the Cup the following weekend.
Round of 16 Darlington Raceway Kansas Speedway Bristol Motor Speedway
Round of 12 Texas Motor Speedway Talladega Superspeedway Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval
Round of 9 Las Vegas Motor Speedway Homestead-Miami Speedway Martinsville Speedway
Championship Race (Round of 4) Phoenix Raceway
Who are the favorites and who is doomed?
The good news for Dillon is that his dramatic dash into the playoffs was the stuff of movie scripts. Same for Cindric and his fellow first-time winners. The bad news is that since the Elimination Era began in 2014, those who barely make the field also typically make early exits, and even if they hold off elimination for a while, they don’t make the last four at season’s end. In the eight previous editions of this format, the deepest a driver has started the playoffs and gone on to win the title is seventh, accomplished by Kevin Harvick in 2014 and Logano four years later. Meanwhile, four of the eight champs started the postseason right where they ended it, in the top spot.
With that in mind, it’s hard to bet against Elliott, who has somehow managed to turn this 2022 of near-historic parity and unpredictability into a bit of a rout, winning the regular season title by a Snake River Canyon-like margin of 130 points over Logano.
The wise guys agree with that assessment. Headed into the playoffs, BetMGM has Elliott listed as the title favorite at 3-1, exactly where it had him when the green flag waved over the Daytona 500. It has Kyle Larson at 7-1 and Denny Hamlin 8-1. Not surprisingly, those behind the desk in the desert value age and experience, as future hall of famers who have struggled through big stretches of this season, like Kyle Busch, Logano and Harvick, are all among the top eight favorites at 12-1 and better.
There is one playoffs crasher whom the sportsbooks love now, even if they didn’t back in February. Congrats to anyone who put a paycheck down on Ross Chastain in February. Back then, the Watermelon Man was listed at 150-1 to hold the Cup this fall. Now he’s 8-1, fourth best among those in the playoffs.
“I think experience matters, heck, I know so,” explains 2021 champ Larson. “To me, the first time you are in a playoffs situation, it’s like the first time you go to a racetrack you’ve never been before. You need time to get your bearings. Once you do, once you know what to expect, the next time you come back you are more comfortable. You think it’s going to just be, ‘Hey, let’s race and don’t worry about it.’ But it is different. It’s also fun. I’m ready to go.”
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
CINCINNATI — Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jake Fraley was activated from the 10-day injured list on Saturday.
He had injured his right shoulder while trying to make a diving catch June 23 against the New York Yankees.
An MRI revealed a partially torn labrum that will eventually require surgery. Fraley received a cortisone shot and will try to play through it for the rest of the season.