The biggest regular-season series in a decade? Why Mets-Braves showdown could shake up October
The fact that there is a division title hanging in the balance as the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves meet this weekend might come as a surprise for anyone who was watching the National League East standings earlier this season. What was once a 10.5-game lead for New York in early June and still as large as seven games on Aug. 10 has turned into a down-to-the-wire battle, with both teams chasing 100 wins in one of the best division races of the wild-card era.
But while Mets fans are likely a tad stressed by this stretch run, their star first baseman begs to differ.
“This is fun — this is really, really fun, being in a race like this,” Pete Alonso said Tuesday after a Mets loss and Braves win briefly tied the teams for first place.
Luckily for baseball fans, the two teams square off for one final series this weekend in Atlanta that will start with New York a game up in the standings. Due to the unknown aftereffects of Hurricane Ian, the exact schedule could change, but an improved forecast makes it seem more likely they’ll play all three games this weekend.
Rain delayed or not, the series sets up as the biggest of the 2022 regular season, about as big as you can get in this new 12-team postseason world — and, arguably, the most important regular-season series since at least 2012 (more on that in a minute).
Watch: Mets-Braves on Sunday Night Baseball, 7 ET
Yes, both teams have clinched playoff spots, but given the ramifications of winning the division and receiving a first-round bye compared to having to use your best starters out of the gate in a best-of-three wild-card series — where anything can happen — both teams desperately want to win the division, and which one does will shape the shape the entire MLB postseason.
“The hope is to have a good series against New York this weekend,” Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. said Tuesday. “The division is on the line.”
One advantage for the Mets: They lead the season series 9-7, so they need to win only one of the three games to clinch the season series, which would give them the tiebreaker edge and the division title if the two teams finish with the same record (tiebreaker games have sadly been eliminated). Both teams have their rotations lined up, with Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer scheduled to face Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton, although the Braves will be without Rookie of the Year candidate Spencer Strider, who is on the injured list with a strained oblique. The Mets have also are calling up their top prospect, catcher Francisco Alvarez for the series.
Outside of eliminating the risk of having your season end three days into the playoffs, the biggest key in avoiding the wild-card series is what it does to your rotation for the next round — especially since there are fewer off days in this year’s postseason after the schedule was condensed because of the lockout. The best-of-five division series, for example, will be played over a potential six days rather than seven.
Here’s how the Braves playoff rotation lines up if they don’t win the division:
Friday, Oct. 7, WC Game 1: Max Fried
Saturday, Oct. 8, WC Game 2: Kyle Wright
Sunday, Oct. 9, WC Game 3: Charlie Morton
Then if they advance, in the division series:
Tuesday, Oct. 11, NLDS Game 1: Bryce Elder/Jake Odorizzi or Morton
Wednesday, Oct. 12, NLDS Game 2: Fried
Friday, Oct: 14, NLDS Game 3: Wright
Saturday, Oct. 15, NLDS Game 4: Morton or Elder/Odorizzi
Sunday, Oct. 16, NLDS Game 5: Game 1 starter
Now, the Braves are holding out hope that Strider can return in the postseason, although given the nature of oblique injuries, that feels a little ambitious for at least the first couple of rounds. But you can see the impact: If you have to play in the wild-card series, and are fortunate enough to move on, you’re going to end up using your No. 3 or 4 starter twice in the division series if it goes the distance. That’s an even bigger deal for Atlanta if Strider is sidelined and it’s the rookie Elder or the struggling veteran Odorizzi making that extra start instead of Fried.
The Mets have a deep rotation as well, but they would certainly prefer deGrom lined up to start twice in the division series:
Friday, Oct. 7, WC Game 1: Jacob deGrom
Saturday, Oct. 8, WC Game 2: Max Scherzer
Sunday, Oct. 9, WC Game 3: Chris Bassitt
Then in the division series:
Tuesday, Oct. 11, NLDS Game 1: Taijuan Walker/Carlos Carrasco or Bassitt
Wednesday, Oct. 12, NLDS Game 2: deGrom
Friday, Oct: 14, NLDS Game 3: Scherzer
Saturday, Oct. 15, NLDS Game 4: Bassitt or Walker/Carrasco
Sunday, Oct. 16, NLDS Game 5: Game 1 starter
The one caveat here is it’s possible the Game 2 starter could come back and start Game 5 on three days of rest. That’s rarely done these days, however, and even last postseason when Morton broke his leg in Game 1 of the World Series the Braves elected to give starts to Tucker Davidson and Dylan Lee rather than pitch anybody on short rest.
Playing in the Wild Card Series isn’t necessarily a sentence to an early exit. The Nationals won when it was a single game in 2019 — in which they used both Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg — and ended up going all the way. (It did help that the NLCS was a four-game sweep, giving their staff a few extra days of rest heading into the World Series.)
But there’s another incentive to avoiding the wild-card series: which side of the bracket the division runner-up will end up in. The division winner will be the No. 2 seed in the National League and play the St. Louis Cardinals or the third wild-card team (most likely the Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewers) in the NLDS. The division runner-up gets the No. 4 seed, would have to play the San Diego Padres (the likely No. 5 seed) in the wild-card round — and then the 107-win (and counting) Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, having just used their top two starters to get there in the first place.
Winning the division also delays starting the clock on the fatigue factor for your pitching staff. While you will hear some mention that the days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the division series can hurt a team — this year, that would be five days — there is no evidence that’s the case. But giving at least your top two starters one fewer start and some extra days off? That sounds like a very good thing in today’s max-effort pitching world.
Look at what happened to the Dodgers last season: They lost that epic NL West race to the San Francisco Giants and started Scherzer in the wild-card game, which meant he couldn’t start again until Game 3 of the NLDS against San Francisco. With the Dodgers down 2-1 in the series, Walker Buehler started Game 4 on short rest and then they used Julio Urias and Scherzer in relief in Game 5.
You can debate some of Dave Roberts’ choices there, but after starting Game 2 of the NLCS against the Braves (two days after his relief appearance) and lasting just 4⅓ innings in a game the Dodgers lost, Scherzer came up with a dead arm and was unable to start Game 6 of the series — which Buehler started again on short rest and pitched poorly as the Dodgers lost and went home.
Bottom line: The less scrambling you have to do with your staff, the better — and, again, this year’s schedule makes it more difficult to do what the Dodgers tried to do last year anyway, which was use their three healthy starters and bullpen their way through the fourth spot in the rotation (or use somebody on short rest).
Which team would benefit more from the bye week, allowing some extra rest for their pitchers? I’d probably say the Mets, given the health issues deGrom and Scherzer have had this season. Plus, deGrom is coming off his worst start since 2019 with the lowly A’s tagging him for five runs in four innings. This is an extremely small sample, but note his ERAs this season:
4 days of rest: 4.15 (three starts)
5 days of rest: 3.52 (four starts)
6+ days of rest: 1.00 (three starts)
Scherzer has good ERAs at all three levels, but check out his OPS and strikeout-to-walk ratio:
4 days of rest: .602 OPS, 4.36 SO-to-BB
5 days of rest: .533 OPS, 8.33 SO-to-BB
6+ days of rest: .460 OPS, 33.0 SO-to-BB
Seems like getting them a little extra rest could be a big deal in how far the Mets go.
So we’re set up for a big series. Now back to my statement of the biggest regular-season series in a decade. I went back to the start of the wild-card game era in 2012 and checked out the tightest division races each full season (no, wild-card races don’t count) and the records heading into the final series those teams played against each other. Here are the closest comparisons.
2022 NL East
New York: 98-58
Atlanta: 97-59
Date: Sept. 30-Oct. 2
2021 NL West
San Francisco: 85-49
Los Angeles: 85-49
Date: Sept. 3-5
An epic race, but the final matchup came early in September — the two didn’t play each other in their final 25 games.
2018 NL Central
Chicago: 83-59
Milwaukee: 82-62
Date: Sept. 10-12
This was the season we ended with two division ties, as the Dodgers and Rockies both finished 91-71 in the NL West. The Brewers won their final eight games (including the tiebreaker) to finally catch the Cubs, but the two clubs last played Sept. 10-12.
2016 AL East
Boston: 85-64
Baltimore: 82-67
Date: Sept. 19-22
The Red Sox were three up on the Orioles when they started a four-game series on Sept. 19. The Red Sox took all four to essentially wrap up the division.
2015 NL Central
St. Louis: 98-58
Pittsburgh: 95-61
Date: Sept. 28-30
St. Louis and Pittsburgh did meet in the next-to-last series of the season. The Cardinals won the first game and then after a rainout they split a doubleheader, clinching the division for St. Louis.
2014 AL Central
Detroit: 84-68
Kansas City: 83-69
Date: Sept. 19-21
The Tigers took the first two games of a three-game series and held on to win the division by one game.
2013 NL Central
Pittsburgh: 81-58
St. Louis: 80-60
Date: Sept. 6-8
The Cardinals swept a three-game series and never relinquished the lead, winning the division by three games.
2012 AL West
Texas: 93-66
Oakland: 91-68
Date: Oct. 1-3
Finally, a series to rival this Mets-Braves matchup — although the two clubs weren’t quite as strong. They met in Oakland for the final series of the season and the A’s took all three games to capture the division.
So there you have it. This Mets-Braves series tracks as the important regular-season series since at least 2012 — and since these teams are better than the A’s and Rangers, it feels even bigger than that one, even if both teams have another series to finish the season.
There are big names and big stars slated to pitch. It involves two of the top franchises in the sport. The implications also go beyond just New York and Atlanta — like, to Los Angeles, where the Dodgers probably aren’t too anxious to face deGrom and Scherzer in a best-of-five series. Alonso is ready. I can’t wait to see how Acuna and Austin Riley and Michael Harris II perform in these big moments. This is baseball at its regular-season best.
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
For years, teammates have asked Devin Williams to teach them his changeup, a pitch so unusual and dominant it has its own nickname. Williams always helps. They just never get “The Airbender” right.
“I haven’t seen anyone replicate it,” Williams said.
Powered by The Airbender, Williams has established himself as one of the premier relievers in baseball since breaking into the majors in 2019. He has been so good that the Milwaukee Brewers, keeping with their frugal roster-building tactics, traded Williams to the New York Yankees last month for left-hander Nestor Cortes and prospect Caleb Durbin before he inevitably would become too expensive in free agency next winter.
So, for one season, at least, Williams will follow in the footsteps of another Yankees closer who perplexed hitters with one pitch: Mariano Rivera.
“Those are big shoes to fill,” Williams said of Rivera, whose signature cutter helped him become the first player voted unanimously to the Hall of Fame. “I feel he kind of ruined it for everybody else. I mean, after him, it’s hard to live up to those expectations. But at the end of the day, I can only be me.”
Being himself has been more than good enough for the 30-year-old Williams. The right-hander won the 2020 National League Rookie of the Year Award with a 0.33 ERA in 22 games as the Brewers’ primary setup man during the COVID-shortened campaign. He was an All-Star in 2022 and 2023, his first full season as a closer.
Last season, after missing the first four months with stress fractures in his back, he posted a 1.25 ERA with 14 saves in 15 opportunities across 22 appearances. His 40.8% strikeout rate since 2020 ranks second in the majors among relievers. His 1.70 ERA is also second. His .144 batting average against ranks first.
“Obviously, he’s one of the best in the league, if not the best,” Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake said.
For Williams, it all starts with The Airbender. Williams grips it like a changeup and its 84-mph average velocity plays off his fastball like a changeup. But it’s a changeup with an exceptionally high spin rate that breaks to his arm side — opposite from the typical changeup — making it resemble a screwball or a left-hander’s sweeping slider. It is without precedent.
“It’s not anything to do with the grip,” Williams said. “The grip is nothing special. That’s why I think it’s funny when people are like, ‘Oh, don’t give it away.’ This is the most basic changeup grip they teach you when you’re 8 years old.”
Williams said his changeup is so different for two reasons: His elite extension, which ranked in the 98th percentile in 2024, and a singular ability to pronate his wrist.
“It’s the way my wrist works, the way I’m able to manipulate the ball is something unique, uniquely me,” Williams said. “It allows me to throw my changeup the way I throw it. I’m a really good pronator, not supinator. That’s why my slider sucked. You need to get on the other side of the ball. I’m not good at that. I’m good at turning it over.”
Williams did, however, modify his changeup grip to unearth the weapon. Entering 2019, Williams was a struggling minor league starter with a solid changeup, two years removed from Tommy John surgery. He was one year from reaching free agency, from perhaps seeing his career come to an end and going to college to play soccer.
That spring, seeking more movement, he altered his changeup grip from a two-seam to a four-seam, circle change grip. He first threw it during a live batting practice session to Trent Grisham, then a Brewers prospect. Grisham, now with the Yankees, told Williams the spin difference was noticeable. Williams stuck with it.
A starter through spring training, Williams was sent to Double-A as a reliever to begin the season. The demotion sparked desperation, and Williams decided to throw harder than ever, reaching back to lift his fastball into the high 90s. He was in the majors by August. But it wasn’t until the COVID shutdown in 2020 — when he realized spinning the ball more and dropping the velocity from high-80s to mid-80s created more movement — that his changeup reached another level.
“I took that into the season and at summer camp I’m facing my own teammates,” Williams said. “And Jedd Gyorko, I threw him one, and he swung and missed and he was just like, What is that? I’ve never seen [anything] like that. That gave me confidence and we just ran with it. And I literally started throwing it all the time.”
Coincidentally, Williams said the closest changeup he’s seen to his belongs to Luke Weaver, whose emergence as a shutdown reliever in 2024 was crucial in the Yankees reaching the World Series. Williams happened to be in New York when the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers played in the Fall Classic. He was on his annual autumn vacation after the Brewers were eliminated from the postseason. Past trips have taken him all over Europe: London, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam, Munich, Dortmund, with a soccer game invariably on his itinerary.
This time, he was in New York. He explored the city for 10 days. Instead of soccer, he watched the World Series from a bar. He shopped. He ate good food. He absorbed the city’s energy.
“I’m a city guy,” Williams said. “I love to explore cities. I like to immerse myself in the culture. I want to be like a normal, everyday person. You guys like bacon, egg and cheese? All right, I’m getting a bacon, egg and cheese.”
Less than two months later, as part of a series of moves executed in their pivot from Juan Soto‘s decision to sign with the crosstown Mets, the Yankees added Williams. On Thursday, Williams settled for $8.6 million to avoid arbitration.
He’ll partner with Weaver to create one of the best bullpen back ends in baseball — in hopes of helping the Yankees win their first championship since Rivera was dominating hitters with his cutter.
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