The biggest regular-season series in a decade? Why Mets-Braves showdown could shake up October
The fact that there is a division title hanging in the balance as the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves meet this weekend might come as a surprise for anyone who was watching the National League East standings earlier this season. What was once a 10.5-game lead for New York in early June and still as large as seven games on Aug. 10 has turned into a down-to-the-wire battle, with both teams chasing 100 wins in one of the best division races of the wild-card era.
But while Mets fans are likely a tad stressed by this stretch run, their star first baseman begs to differ.
“This is fun — this is really, really fun, being in a race like this,” Pete Alonso said Tuesday after a Mets loss and Braves win briefly tied the teams for first place.
Luckily for baseball fans, the two teams square off for one final series this weekend in Atlanta that will start with New York a game up in the standings. Due to the unknown aftereffects of Hurricane Ian, the exact schedule could change, but an improved forecast makes it seem more likely they’ll play all three games this weekend.
Rain delayed or not, the series sets up as the biggest of the 2022 regular season, about as big as you can get in this new 12-team postseason world — and, arguably, the most important regular-season series since at least 2012 (more on that in a minute).
Watch: Mets-Braves on Sunday Night Baseball, 7 ET
Yes, both teams have clinched playoff spots, but given the ramifications of winning the division and receiving a first-round bye compared to having to use your best starters out of the gate in a best-of-three wild-card series — where anything can happen — both teams desperately want to win the division, and which one does will shape the shape the entire MLB postseason.
“The hope is to have a good series against New York this weekend,” Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. said Tuesday. “The division is on the line.”
One advantage for the Mets: They lead the season series 9-7, so they need to win only one of the three games to clinch the season series, which would give them the tiebreaker edge and the division title if the two teams finish with the same record (tiebreaker games have sadly been eliminated). Both teams have their rotations lined up, with Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer scheduled to face Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton, although the Braves will be without Rookie of the Year candidate Spencer Strider, who is on the injured list with a strained oblique. The Mets have also are calling up their top prospect, catcher Francisco Alvarez for the series.
Outside of eliminating the risk of having your season end three days into the playoffs, the biggest key in avoiding the wild-card series is what it does to your rotation for the next round — especially since there are fewer off days in this year’s postseason after the schedule was condensed because of the lockout. The best-of-five division series, for example, will be played over a potential six days rather than seven.
Here’s how the Braves playoff rotation lines up if they don’t win the division:
Friday, Oct. 7, WC Game 1: Max Fried
Saturday, Oct. 8, WC Game 2: Kyle Wright
Sunday, Oct. 9, WC Game 3: Charlie Morton
Then if they advance, in the division series:
Tuesday, Oct. 11, NLDS Game 1: Bryce Elder/Jake Odorizzi or Morton
Wednesday, Oct. 12, NLDS Game 2: Fried
Friday, Oct: 14, NLDS Game 3: Wright
Saturday, Oct. 15, NLDS Game 4: Morton or Elder/Odorizzi
Sunday, Oct. 16, NLDS Game 5: Game 1 starter
Now, the Braves are holding out hope that Strider can return in the postseason, although given the nature of oblique injuries, that feels a little ambitious for at least the first couple of rounds. But you can see the impact: If you have to play in the wild-card series, and are fortunate enough to move on, you’re going to end up using your No. 3 or 4 starter twice in the division series if it goes the distance. That’s an even bigger deal for Atlanta if Strider is sidelined and it’s the rookie Elder or the struggling veteran Odorizzi making that extra start instead of Fried.
The Mets have a deep rotation as well, but they would certainly prefer deGrom lined up to start twice in the division series:
Friday, Oct. 7, WC Game 1: Jacob deGrom
Saturday, Oct. 8, WC Game 2: Max Scherzer
Sunday, Oct. 9, WC Game 3: Chris Bassitt
Then in the division series:
Tuesday, Oct. 11, NLDS Game 1: Taijuan Walker/Carlos Carrasco or Bassitt
Wednesday, Oct. 12, NLDS Game 2: deGrom
Friday, Oct: 14, NLDS Game 3: Scherzer
Saturday, Oct. 15, NLDS Game 4: Bassitt or Walker/Carrasco
Sunday, Oct. 16, NLDS Game 5: Game 1 starter
The one caveat here is it’s possible the Game 2 starter could come back and start Game 5 on three days of rest. That’s rarely done these days, however, and even last postseason when Morton broke his leg in Game 1 of the World Series the Braves elected to give starts to Tucker Davidson and Dylan Lee rather than pitch anybody on short rest.
Playing in the Wild Card Series isn’t necessarily a sentence to an early exit. The Nationals won when it was a single game in 2019 — in which they used both Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg — and ended up going all the way. (It did help that the NLCS was a four-game sweep, giving their staff a few extra days of rest heading into the World Series.)
But there’s another incentive to avoiding the wild-card series: which side of the bracket the division runner-up will end up in. The division winner will be the No. 2 seed in the National League and play the St. Louis Cardinals or the third wild-card team (most likely the Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewers) in the NLDS. The division runner-up gets the No. 4 seed, would have to play the San Diego Padres (the likely No. 5 seed) in the wild-card round — and then the 107-win (and counting) Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, having just used their top two starters to get there in the first place.
Winning the division also delays starting the clock on the fatigue factor for your pitching staff. While you will hear some mention that the days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the division series can hurt a team — this year, that would be five days — there is no evidence that’s the case. But giving at least your top two starters one fewer start and some extra days off? That sounds like a very good thing in today’s max-effort pitching world.
Look at what happened to the Dodgers last season: They lost that epic NL West race to the San Francisco Giants and started Scherzer in the wild-card game, which meant he couldn’t start again until Game 3 of the NLDS against San Francisco. With the Dodgers down 2-1 in the series, Walker Buehler started Game 4 on short rest and then they used Julio Urias and Scherzer in relief in Game 5.
You can debate some of Dave Roberts’ choices there, but after starting Game 2 of the NLCS against the Braves (two days after his relief appearance) and lasting just 4⅓ innings in a game the Dodgers lost, Scherzer came up with a dead arm and was unable to start Game 6 of the series — which Buehler started again on short rest and pitched poorly as the Dodgers lost and went home.
Bottom line: The less scrambling you have to do with your staff, the better — and, again, this year’s schedule makes it more difficult to do what the Dodgers tried to do last year anyway, which was use their three healthy starters and bullpen their way through the fourth spot in the rotation (or use somebody on short rest).
Which team would benefit more from the bye week, allowing some extra rest for their pitchers? I’d probably say the Mets, given the health issues deGrom and Scherzer have had this season. Plus, deGrom is coming off his worst start since 2019 with the lowly A’s tagging him for five runs in four innings. This is an extremely small sample, but note his ERAs this season:
4 days of rest: 4.15 (three starts)
5 days of rest: 3.52 (four starts)
6+ days of rest: 1.00 (three starts)
Scherzer has good ERAs at all three levels, but check out his OPS and strikeout-to-walk ratio:
4 days of rest: .602 OPS, 4.36 SO-to-BB
5 days of rest: .533 OPS, 8.33 SO-to-BB
6+ days of rest: .460 OPS, 33.0 SO-to-BB
Seems like getting them a little extra rest could be a big deal in how far the Mets go.
So we’re set up for a big series. Now back to my statement of the biggest regular-season series in a decade. I went back to the start of the wild-card game era in 2012 and checked out the tightest division races each full season (no, wild-card races don’t count) and the records heading into the final series those teams played against each other. Here are the closest comparisons.
2022 NL East
New York: 98-58
Atlanta: 97-59
Date: Sept. 30-Oct. 2
2021 NL West
San Francisco: 85-49
Los Angeles: 85-49
Date: Sept. 3-5
An epic race, but the final matchup came early in September — the two didn’t play each other in their final 25 games.
2018 NL Central
Chicago: 83-59
Milwaukee: 82-62
Date: Sept. 10-12
This was the season we ended with two division ties, as the Dodgers and Rockies both finished 91-71 in the NL West. The Brewers won their final eight games (including the tiebreaker) to finally catch the Cubs, but the two clubs last played Sept. 10-12.
2016 AL East
Boston: 85-64
Baltimore: 82-67
Date: Sept. 19-22
The Red Sox were three up on the Orioles when they started a four-game series on Sept. 19. The Red Sox took all four to essentially wrap up the division.
2015 NL Central
St. Louis: 98-58
Pittsburgh: 95-61
Date: Sept. 28-30
St. Louis and Pittsburgh did meet in the next-to-last series of the season. The Cardinals won the first game and then after a rainout they split a doubleheader, clinching the division for St. Louis.
2014 AL Central
Detroit: 84-68
Kansas City: 83-69
Date: Sept. 19-21
The Tigers took the first two games of a three-game series and held on to win the division by one game.
2013 NL Central
Pittsburgh: 81-58
St. Louis: 80-60
Date: Sept. 6-8
The Cardinals swept a three-game series and never relinquished the lead, winning the division by three games.
2012 AL West
Texas: 93-66
Oakland: 91-68
Date: Oct. 1-3
Finally, a series to rival this Mets-Braves matchup — although the two clubs weren’t quite as strong. They met in Oakland for the final series of the season and the A’s took all three games to capture the division.
So there you have it. This Mets-Braves series tracks as the important regular-season series since at least 2012 — and since these teams are better than the A’s and Rangers, it feels even bigger than that one, even if both teams have another series to finish the season.
There are big names and big stars slated to pitch. It involves two of the top franchises in the sport. The implications also go beyond just New York and Atlanta — like, to Los Angeles, where the Dodgers probably aren’t too anxious to face deGrom and Scherzer in a best-of-five series. Alonso is ready. I can’t wait to see how Acuna and Austin Riley and Michael Harris II perform in these big moments. This is baseball at its regular-season best.
-
Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
After their Game 5 victory, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brady Skjei noted the key difference between his team and the New York Islanders, the team it eliminated Tuesday night.
“Those lucky bounces went our way,” he said after the Hurricanes’ 6-3 win in Raleigh.
The Hurricanes’ Jack Drury and Stefan Noesen scored eight seconds apart in the third period, the fastest two goals in a playoff game in franchise history. That broke their previous record of nine seconds between goals, which was set in the third period of Game 2 against the Islanders.
Drury’s goal came on a deflected puck that the Islanders couldn’t clear from their zone. Noesen scored eight seconds later on a bounce off the side boards that sailed directly to the Islanders’ net.
“It sucks that we’re done playing. It’s just a tough way to lose a game like that,” Islanders captain Anders Lee said. “We were grinding back. Stayed in the fight all night. We believed we were going to win this hockey game. And then two bounces like that. … It’s tough to swallow.”
The five-game series was a tough, competitive matchup between the second and third seeds in the Metro Division. But after the Islanders won Game 4 in double-overtime to avoid elimination, the Hurricanes came out strong back at home to try to finish them off.
The Hurricanes built a 2-0 lead in the first 3:13 of the game on goals by Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov, whose power-play tally deflected off the stick of Islanders defenseman Robert Bortuzzo.
Mike Reilly‘s power-play goal just 41 seconds after Svechnikov’s tally made it 2-1, but Carolina increased its lead again on a Evgeny Kuznetsov penalty shot goal that the Hurricanes earned when Islanders defenseman Alexander Romanov covered the puck in the crease with his glove. Acquired at the trade deadline from the Capitals, Kuznetsov used his trademark slow-skating approach — clocking in at 4 mph when he shot the puck — to outlast goalie Semyon Varlamov.
“The closer he gets to the net, the more comfortable we feel,” Hurricanes forward Seth Jarvis said. “We know how nasty he is. He’s done it to us a few times. To see it work for us in a moment like that is absolutely massive.”
But the Islanders rallied in the second period. Brock Nelson scored at 3:47 when his shot deflected off the stick of Carolina defender Jalen Chatfield. They tied the game with 22 seconds left in the period as Casey Cizikas scored his first of the playoffs on a play that saw goalie Frederik Andersen lose his balance and fall near his right goalpost.
“We knew we let them crawl back into it in the second. You never want to do that, especially against a team like that. But we have so many good veterans that kept us calm. We didn’t get flustered,” said Jarvis, who would add an empty netter before the buzzer.
Then disaster struck for the Islanders in an eight-second span. Drury scored at 4:36 on a broken play in the offensive zone. Noesen scored eight seconds later on a terrible bounce for New York. Off the faceoff, defenseman Skjei fired the puck into the offensive zone. Varlamov went behind the net, anticipating the puck would reach him. Instead, it ricocheted off the side boards and slid toward the crease, where an alert Noesen tucked it home.
“The first one was just a bouncing puck that settled down for their guy on the weak side. The second goal, it’s just a s—ty bounce. Not a whole lot you can do,” Islanders winger Kyle Palmieri said. “It stings to get put down by two like that. But we battled back from down two earlier in the game. We knew we had our backs against the wall and we battles our asses off to try and find a way to try and win it.”
Lee said he’s proud of the fight the Islanders showed this season.
“At no point in this season or in this series did anyone take their foot off the gas and stop believing what we’re doing,” he said. “It’s a tight series. We didn’t get what we needed. Didn’t get that extra bounce. They got two tonight.”
The Hurricanes advance to face the New York Rangers in the second round. Coach Rod Brind’Amour said his team will have to improve its game after dispatching the Islanders.
“The Rangers are the best team in the league, right? We know what they’re all about: just immense talent, coached really well, good goaltending. What don’t they have?” he said. “We’re going to have to play better if we expect to win.”
A little more good puck luck wouldn’t hurt, either.
“It’s the playoffs. It’s one play here or there that makes the difference in the game,” Brind’Amour said. “Tonight we were the fortunate ones to get that bounce.”
RALEIGH, N.C. — This time, the Carolina Hurricanes didn’t miss their chance to close out the New York Islanders on home ice.
Jack Drury scored the go-ahead goal early in the third period and Stefan Noesen cleaned up a fluky puck bounce off the boards for another one 8 seconds later as the Hurricanes beat the Islanders 6-3 on Tuesday night, clinching their first-round Stanley Cup playoffs series in five games.
The Hurricanes missed a chance to sweep the Islanders in a double-overtime loss over the weekend, then twice blew two-goal leads and entered the final 20 minutes in a 3-all tie.
“They just kept coming,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “We had to play really well to win this series.”
And that earned the Hurricanes a date with the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers in the second round.
Drury scored his first career postseason goal by controlling a dribbling puck that bounced by Jean-Gabriel Pageau then zipping it past Semyon Varlamov to his blocker side at 4:36 of the third. Then, after a faceoff win, the Hurricanes dumped the puck ahead toward the corner. But as Varlamov went behind the net to play the puck, it took an unexpected bounce and caromed straight into the left post, then popped forward into the crease.
Noesen charged in to bury it as Varlamov tried desperately to get back to the netfront, pushing Carolina to a 5-3 lead at 4:44.
That was ultimately enough to help the Hurricanes finally push past the determined Islanders, becoming the first team to win at least one playoff series in six straight postseasons since Detroit did it from 1995 to 2000.
“They play the right way, they play hard, but we got the job done,” said Drury, who centered the third line in this one after starting this series as a fourth-line winger. “I think we stayed resilient, too, and it was a good bounce-back in the third.”
Carolina jumped to a 3-0 lead in this best-of-seven series before missing out on a chance to clinch in Saturday’s double-overtime road loss. That set up a familiar scenario from last year, when the Islanders won Game 5 here to extend that first-round series before falling in six games.
This time, Carolina closed it out even after a tense vibe entering those final 20 minutes. By the end, though, Seth Jarvis had added an empty-net clincher at the 18:21 mark to let Hurricanes fans stay in a celebratory roar to close this one out.
“We knew we — I don’t want to say, let off the gas — but we let them kind of crawl back into it in the second. … We have so many good veterans,” Jarvis said. “They kept us calm, we never really got flustered. They made sure we knew what was at stake and just came out in the third and executed.”
Noesen’s bizarre goal captured some of the wild action, which included New York’s Casey Cizikas scoring in the final seconds of the second on an unguarded net. Carolina goaltender Frederik Andersen stumbled as he scrambled to his right after a stop and fell untouched out of the crease.
Carolina scored twice and rang the post in the opening 3½ minutes and twice led by two goals while coach Patrick Roy said his team “got dominated” in an opening period that included being outshot 21-4. But the Islanders climbed all the way back to tie it at 3 on Cizikas’ score to enter the final period.
“I really thought that was the turning point in the game,” Roy said. “And then a couple of bad bounces … And we had our chances.”
Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov scored in that opening blitz from Carolina, while Evgeny Kuznetsov scored on a penalty shot — a wait-wait-wait move as he skated in slowly before snapping it past Varlamov when he went for the pokecheck — for the 3-1 lead in the first.
Mike Reilly and Brock Nelson also scored for the Islanders, who won eight of their past nine games to clinch a playoff bid in the waning days of the regular season. That came after a January coaching change with the firing of Lane Lambert to hire Roy.
Carolina entered the playoffs as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup, but the Islanders gave the Hurricanes fits the entire way. That included outplaying Carolina for much of the Game 1 loss, then blowing a 3-0 lead by giving up the tying and go-ahead goals 9 seconds apart in the final three minutes of Game 2.
Ultimately, another improbably quick burst helped finish off the Islanders.
“I’m not saying we should have won the series,” Roy said. “I’m saying we could go home right now and play Game No. 6 easily. Instead, it’s over. So it feels empty in the way that I thought we did a lot better than what we got in return.”
Carolina defenseman Tony DeAngelo, pressed into duty due to a lower-body injury to Brett Pesce from Game 2, exited late in this one with an upper-body injury after an uncalled slash. Brind’Amour said DeAngelo was having X-rays but had no other update.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Environment11 months agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports6 months agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Environment1 year agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Technology3 years ago
Game consoles were once banned in China. Now Chinese developers want a slice of the $49 billion pie
-
Politics2 years ago
Have the last few wobbly weeks seen a turning point for Johnson as PM?