
Everything you need for the 2022 MLB playoffs: Odds, strengths (and weaknesses) and how far all 12 teams will go
More Videos
Published
3 years agoon
By
adminThe 2022 MLB playoffs are here — and for the first time there are 12 teams battling for World Series glory.
With an extra round to begin the postseason and the possibility that this year’s Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it will be a very short October stay for some — and quite possibly the latest championship celebration in MLB history for the last squad standing.
Will the favored Los Angeles Dodgers rule the National League or will the repeat-minded Braves make another deep run? Can anyone in the American League keep the New York Yankees and Houston Astros from squaring off in the ALCS? And which teams are most likely to see their runs end this weekend?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with everything from odds for every matchup and a predicted date of each team’s last game to the best- and worst-case scenario for all 12 World Series hopefuls. World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Watch: Wild-card round, Friday-Sunday on ESPN & ABC | Bracket
Jump to a team:
TB | SEA | TOR | CLE | NYY | HOU
PHI | SD | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD
American League
Most likely to go home this weekend
No. 6 seed | 86-75 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Guardians (45.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Yes, the Rays have a deep bullpen as always (check out the numbers for Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks), but the starting pitching is much better than you might realize. Shane McClanahan was a Cy Young candidate for three-fourths of the season, Drew Rasmussen has been consistent all season and Jeffrey Springs turned overnight from a mediocre reliever into a very good starter. All three finished with sub-3.00 ERAs. Then there’s Tyler Glasnow, who finally returned from Tommy John surgery in late September. If they need a fifth starter, there’s playoff-tested veteran Corey Kluber. The Rays have the pitching depth to withstand the rigors of a long October. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: They fail to score runs. Only Cleveland hit fewer home runs among the playoff teams as the lineup simply lacks any star power. Wander Franco failed to ignite while battling injuries in his sophomore season. Brandon Lowe, a 39-homer slugger last season, is out for the season with a back injury. David Peralta hasn’t homered since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Yandy Diaz does get on base and Randy Arozarena has been a doubles machine — and we all remember his heroics in the 2020 postseason — but you have to wonder where the firepower will come from. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Rays were swept by the Astros at home from Sept. 19 to 21, then dropped two of three against them on the road in the final weekend of the regular season. But it’s hard to glean much from that, especially in the latter series, when the Rays were resting key players to gear up for the postseason. The Rays can pitch with anyone, including the Astros. But their outfield defense could be a separator in a potential matchup. The Rays had the second-best defensive outfield in the majors this season, according to outs above average. And the Astros, unsurprisingly, hit a lot of fly balls. Jose Siri, one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, could play a big role — especially at Minute Maid Park. — Gonzalez
No. 5 seed | 89-72 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (42.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.2% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Refuse to Lose. Anything Can Happen. True to the Blue. Believe. Hey, after Cal Raleigh clinched Seattle’s playoff spot and ended the franchise’s 21-year-old playoff drought with a dramatic pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run — maybe destiny is on the Mariners’ side. If you want a baseball reason, the bullpen is deep and built for October. But they’ll need to score some runs and to do that, how about a dream scenario: Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez returns from the sore back that sidelined him at the end of September and has a postseason for the ages. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The pitching will need to carry them, but it also looked a little fatigued at times down the stretch. Luis Castillo had three rough September starts when he suddenly lost it in the middle innings. Rookie George Kirby had been a model of consistency until a recent bad outing (and is well beyond his innings total from 2021). Robbie Ray had two scoreless starts in September mixed in with three mediocre ones. The bullpen was pushed hard throughout the season and closer Paul Sewald has been homer-prone of late. The Mariners don’t score enough runs to leave much margin for error, so the entire staff will need to bring it. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros won 12 of 19 games against the Mariners, but they outscored Seattle by only eight runs. In the six games started by Justin Verlander, however, the Astros outscored their division rivals 30-11. Houston won five of those starts. In his past three outings against Seattle, Verlander allowed three runs in 21⅔ innings. In other words — it’s going to be crucial for Seattle to take advantage on the days Verlander doesn’t pitch. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have a 5.40 ERA in 48⅓ innings against the M’s this year. — Gonzalez
They should be around next week, but after that …
No. 3 seed | 91-70 | AL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Rays (55.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense … and a dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges — have all been outstanding. They’re hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don’t buy that? In last year’s postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 — that’s 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn’t hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they’ll have to power up. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only American League team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians — by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians’ recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run — and just hope the series doesn’t turn into a slugfest. — Gonzalez
No. 4 seed | 92-70 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Mariners (57.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.7% | Caesars odds: +1800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16
How they could stay around longer: The offense goes off. The Blue Jays haven’t produced quite the same gaudy offensive numbers as they did in 2021, but that’s because offense is down across the league. When this offense is clicking it’s still as good as any in the game, with a mix of power and high-average hitters. A big key down the stretch was Bo Bichette, who hit .403 in September. Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are two of the better contact hitters in the game (and Vladdy obviously provides upper-deck power as well). And don’t forget that George Springer has been a great postseason performer in his career, hitting .269/.349/.546 with 19 home runs in 63 games. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The bullpen. Jordan Romano has been pretty good as the closer, although not exactly lights out with six blown saves (he did finish strong with 19 scoreless appearances in his final 20 outings). It’s getting to Romano that has been a little tricky. The bullpen was 16th in the majors in FanGraphs WAR, but ahead of only St. Louis and Milwaukee among playoff teams. Thanks to Romano, they were a little better in win probability added, but the lack of depth is an issue and, really, more than any of the other playoff teams, the Jays will need their starters to pitch deeper into games. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Blue Jays’ three best starters pitched well against the Astros this season, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios combining to give up just five runs — and walk two batters — in 18⅔ innings over the course of three starts, all victories. None of those outings occurred beyond May 1, but it’s a positive sign nonetheless. The key here is Berrios, who has struggled mightily ever since. If he can get on track and be the elite starter the Blue Jays expect him to be, they’ll have a chance. The Blue Jays can hang with the Astros offensively. But they’ll probably need three bona fide, top-of-the-rotation arms to shut them down, not two. — Gonzalez
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 99-63 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Rays/Guardians (63.4% chance vs. TB, 64% vs. CLE)
World Series odds: 15.5% | Caesars odds: +500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 25
How they could stay around longer: Maybe it’s unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole’s performance, especially since Frankie Montas wasn’t the big rotation addition the Yankees expected. When Cole bombed out early in the wild-card game against the Red Sox last season, the Yankees went home. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but he also led the American League with 32 home runs allowed — 16 of them off his four-seam fastball. Cole was especially homer-prone in September with nine in 30 innings and in his four career postseason starts with the Yankees he has allowed six in just 20⅓ innings. He has to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: Opponents pitch around Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup fails to knock him in. When the Yankees struggled with a 10-18 record in August, they averaged just 3.61 runs per game — even as Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs. But as he continued mashing throughout the season, teams started walking him more often: 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees led the AL in runs, but they can’t expect one man to carry them for an entire postseason. It’s worth noting that in seven games against the Astros they hit just .151. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros famously got the best of the Yankees during the regular season, winning five of seven. The encouraging news if you’re a Yankees fan: All seven games were decided by three runs or fewer. The not-so-encouraging news: The Yankees didn’t throw a single pitch with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies followed by walk-off hits from Judge. But the Astros were one of few teams that were actually able to keep Judge mostly in check, holding him to a .148/.258/.370 slash line. Needless to say, Judge’s bat needs to come alive in this potential heavyweight matchup. And the Yankees will have to play a clean, mistake-free brand of baseball. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 106-56 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Mariners/Blue Jays (64% chance vs. SEA, 62.7% vs. TOR)
World Series odds: 18.0% | Caesars odds: +380
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the AL’s team to beat: Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veteran holdovers from the 2017 World Series champions who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. Altuve quietly had one of his best seasons, with an OPS+ that matched his MVP season in 2017. Bregman, meanwhile, had a big second half, the best he’s hit since 2019. Altuve has been outstanding in his postseason career (.286/.361/.567, 23 home runs in 79 games) while Bregman less so (.226/.339/.400, 12 home runs in 73 games), but if they’re getting on base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, good things can happen. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: The bottom of the lineup fails to contribute. The Astros don’t get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez (who hasn’t homered for Houston since coming over from Boston at the trade deadline). Yuli Gurriel had a rough season. Trey Mancini, the other trade acquisition, has hit under .200 for the Astros. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has seen his numbers drop in the second half. This lineup simply lacks the depth of some other Houston teams of recent vintage. If the big four don’t click, it could be a quick exit — no matter how dominant Justin Verlander and the rest of the rotation is. — Schoenfield
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: Most of the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson will make up three-fourths of their postseason rotation. What do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. And the Astros — with a right-handed-heavy lineup headlined by Bregman and Altuve — feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter, the left-handed-hitting Alvarez, was elite against lefties, too. In a matchup of two teams that are pretty closely matched, it could make the difference. If the Astros can make a habit out of scoring early, they could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers — and their first without a cheating scandal. — Gonzalez
National League
Most likely to go home this weekend …
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | NL third wild card
Wild-card opponent: Cardinals (39.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: The bullpen falls into place. Philadelphia has a 5.04 bullpen ERA since the beginning of September, a big contributor to Philly’s near-collapse down the stretch. Injuries have included Corey Knebel (done for the season) and Brad Hand (question mark for the playoffs). David Robertson will be a part of the high-leverage mix. Other solutions have emerged: converted starter Zach Eflin has flourished out of the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado has been as hot as any reliever. Struggling Seranthony Dominguez regaining the dominant form he flashed before an August injury might be enough to push the Phillies over the hump. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Cardinals’ staff keeps the Phillies in the yard. St. Louis is a low-strikeout pitching staff by contemporary standards. But Busch Stadium is stingy with homers and even on the road, the Cardinals don’t yield a high homer rate. Also, those contact-heavy pitchers are backed by baseball’s best defense. The Phillies own MLB’s third-highest homer rate and while they aren’t the most longball-dependent offense in the postseason, they aren’t far off. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins & Co. need to combine for two or three bombs per game or the Phillies will have a hard time turning the scoreboard. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The 2019 Washington Nationals proved you don’t need to be incredibly deep or even well-rounded to defeat the Dodgers in a short series. Sometimes, if the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to perform to their capabilities. Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS in 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 17⅔ innings. In those four — and catcher J.T. Realmuto — the Phillies boast upper-echelon talent. They’ll need them to do most of the heavy lifting to defeat L.A. — Gonzalez
No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL second wild card
Wild-card opponent: Mets (36.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.3% | Caesars odds: +2800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Juan Soto goes off. Soto went into a funk not long after the monumental midseason trade that sent him to San Diego. While his overall San Diego numbers are down even from his subpar pre-trade numbers in Washington, Soto has quietly been trending up over the past couple of weeks. And let’s not forget that when the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, Soto’s huge postseason as a 20-year-old had a lot to do with it. All the hand-wringing over Soto’s post-trade play would be forgotten if he has a big October. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Padres’ rotation, especially Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, carried them into the playoffs down the stretch. That success needs to continue, but it wouldn’t have mattered had closer Josh Hader not straightened himself out. After a catastrophic start to his Padres career, Hader finished strong — making his midseason slump all the more bewildering. What happens if the bizarro Hader returns? San Diego will be done, that’s what will happen. Sure, you can say the same thing about every team that leans on a primary closer — but not every team saw its relief ace pitch like Hader did in August. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Padres struggled mightily against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and getting outscored by a combined 62 runs. To beat L.A., they’ll need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn’t pitch against the Dodgers at all. They’ll need Soto and Manny Machado to be at their best. They’ll need Hader to be the lockdown closer they thought they were getting at the start of August. And they’ll need contributions from several others. Most of all, perhaps, they’ll need to summon some confidence. — Gonzalez
2:59
Tim Kurkjian and Eduardo Perrez preview all of the postseason Wild Card matchups.
They should be around next week, but after that …
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Phillies (60.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.1% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: Stars of the past and stars of the present. Few players have had as many big October moments as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. This is their last shot at it and after what we’ve seen Pujols do since the All-Star break, the next chapter in this fairy tale would be a stirring playoff run. But for all the attention Pujols has rightly deserved, the Cardinals have featured a pair of NL MVP candidates in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Offense is hard to come by in the playoffs and one or two hot players can carry a team. If Arenado and Goldschmidt go off, it might not even matter what Pujols and Molina do. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: Picking the wrong playoff rotation. Ollie Marmol and his staff have tended to push the right buttons during their first go-around running the Redbirds, but piecing together a playoff rotation will be tough. St. Louis deepened its rotation with the midseason acquisitions of Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, while Jack Flaherty has been trending up. Adam Wainwright has been struggling but he’s Adam Wainwright. Then you’ve got Miles Mikolas, the club’s most consistent regular-season performer. St. Louis has at least five decent options but differentiating among them for the best possible matchups in a short series is quite a puzzle. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Dodgers are the kings of velocity. Their offense was by far the most productive in the sport against 95-plus mph fastballs this season. But that is not how this Cardinals rotation profiles. Wainwright relies mostly on a big curveball and throws his fastballs in the 80s. Montgomery relies heavily on curveballs and changeups. The same can be said for Quintana, whose fastball hardly ventures beyond the low 90s. Flaherty and Mikolas throw harder, but not by a whole lot. These are the types of arms that might stand the best chance of keeping the Dodgers’ hitters off balance. — Gonzalez
No. 4 seed | 101-61 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Padres (63.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 5.4% | Caesars odds: +800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer return to peak form in both excellence and duration. That is to say, any game in which deGrom and Scherzer are able to dominate into the late innings and come close to handing the ball straight to dominant closer Edwin Diaz is a game that the Mets will be heavily favored to win — no matter who the opponent is. Scherzer has been Scherzer for most of the season but hasn’t often gone past the sixth inning of late. DeGrom enters the playoffs in a rough stretch by his standards. But if they go to another level when the October lights shine, would anyone be surprised? — Doolittle
What could send them home early: A Pete Alonso/Francisco Lindor power outage. The Mets built a potent offense all season with a balance of skill sets. They are the least homer-reliant club in the NL bracket. This is a good thing but base hits become harder to string together during the playoffs. The most consistent sources of power have been Alonso and Lindor. It’s not all about homers, but also plugging the gaps with runners on base: The pair have combined to drive in nearly a third of the runs the Mets have scored. New York can’t afford for them to go cold at the same time. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Mets are imperfect, but they possess what might be the best formula to take down the Dodgers — pitchers who can single-handedly dominate an entire series. Scherzer and deGrom can do that out of the rotation, and Diaz can do that out of the bullpen. It’ll require Scherzer to pitch on short rest — perhaps deGrom as well, though that is unlikely given his injury history and lingering free agency — and Diaz to contribute more than three outs. It won’t be easy, but no one said it would be. — Gonzalez
1:44
Eduardo Perrez and Tim Kurkjian talk about the New York Mets and their chances to advance this postseason.
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 101-61 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Phillies/Cardinals (61.5% chance vs. PHI, 55.8% vs. STL)
World Series odds: 12.5% | Caesars odds: +600
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 24
How they could stay around longer: If the bullpen falls into place like it did last October, look out. The Braves’ are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn’t need to lean quite as heavily on his fireman as he did en route to the 2021 title. But even if he does, the Atlanta bullpen as a group has been smoking hot of late — led by trade acquisition Raisel Iglesias, who has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves. Kenley Jansen has been very good, as have Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. If Tyler Matzek can find last season’s consistency, there might not be a bad lever for Snitker to pull. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: A couple of lifeless cutters in the wrong situation by Jansen. This isn’t to pick on Jansen. He’s had an excellent first season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a pretty good roll entering the playoffs. But he still isn’t the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn’t much else that might be a glaring issue. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS, splitting the two series, and they seem poised square off again. Outside of the Astros, the Braves might be the closest to matching the Dodgers’ depth and balance. Their separator could be in the bullpen. The three guys who entered this season as the Dodgers’ most important back-end relievers are either lost for the year (Daniel Hudson), pitching in low-leverage situations because of ineffectiveness (Craig Kimbrel) or recovering from injury (Blake Treinen). The Braves are as deep as ever in the back end of their bullpen, and this is a clear advantage for them. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 111-51 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Padres/Mets (75.2% chance vs. SD, 65.4% vs. NYM)
World Series odds: 30.6% | Caesars odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the team to beat in all of MLB: During the regular season, depth is what jumps to mind. L.A. has a roster and system of processes with so much quality redundancy built in that it’s hard to remember a time when we didn’t simply pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before a season began. Depth isn’t irrelevant in the playoffs, but it’s clearly not as big a factor with the possible exception of the back of the bullpen. The thing is, the Dodgers aren’t just about depth. They are about all of the things, and a team with star power like this has a talent edge on everyone. And, oh yeah, they just won 110** games with the run differential that suggests they were actually a little unlucky. — Doolittle
What could send them home early: The term “Achilles’ heel” has become such a sports cliche. If the Dodgers falter, maybe we’ll have to update it to “L.A. closer.” Like in the NFL, you might say, “They have an airtight defense but their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner.” The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors all season and have such a depth of impact talent in the organization that it’s dizzying. And yet they enter the playoffs with an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It’s hard to fathom. — Doolittle
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: First, a tangible one: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ dynamic top-of-the-lineup trio is what separates them from everyone, even the most elite. No team can boast the combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and baserunning that those three possess in abundance. –
Now, an intangible one: Revenge. Betts, Turner and Freeman were not with the Dodgers when they lost the 2017 World Series to an Astros team that was later found to have illegally stolen signs. But a few others — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes — were. And beating the Astros on this stage would qualify as the ultimate payback, no matter how much these rosters have changed over the last five years. — Gonzalez
You may like
Sports
Remembering Ruffian 50 years after her breakdown at Belmont
Published
5 hours agoon
July 6, 2025By
admin
Thoroughbred racing suffered its most ignominious, industry-deflating moment 50 years ago today with the breakdown of Ruffian, an undefeated filly running against Foolish Pleasure in a highly promoted match race at Belmont Park. Her tragic end on July 6, 1975, was a catastrophe for the sport, and observers say racing has never truly recovered.
Two years earlier, during the rise of second-wave feminism, the nation had been mesmerized by a “Battle of the Sexes” tennis match between Billie Jean King and Bobby Riggs. King’s win became a rallying cry for women everywhere. The New York Racing Association, eager to boost daily racing crowds in the mid-1970s, proposed a competition similar to that of King and Riggs. They created a match race between Kentucky Derby winner Foolish Pleasure and Ruffian, the undefeated filly who had dominated all 10 of her starts, leading gate to wire.
“In any sport, human or equine, it’s really impossible to say who was the greatest,” said outgoing Jockey Club chairman Stuart Janney III, whose parents, Stuart and Barbara, owned Ruffian. “But I’m always comfortable thinking of Ruffian as being among the four to five greatest horses of all time.”
Ruffian, nearly jet black in color and massive, was the equine version of a Greek goddess. At the age of 2, her girth — the measurement of the strap that secures the saddle — was just over 75 inches. Comparatively, racing legend Secretariat, a male, had a 76-inch girth when he was fully developed at the age of 4.
Her name also added to the aura. “‘Ruffian’ was a little bit of a stretch because it tended to be what you’d name a colt, but it turned out to be an appropriate name,” Janney said.
On May 22, 1974, Ruffian equaled a Belmont Park track record, set by a male, in her debut at age 2, winning by 15 lengths. She set a stakes record later that summer at Saratoga in the Spinaway, the most prestigious race of the year for 2-year-old fillies. The next spring, she blew through races at longer distances, including the three races that made up the so-called Filly Triple Crown.
Some in the media speculated that she had run out of female competition.
Foolish Pleasure had meanwhile ripped through an undefeated 2-year-old season with championship year-end honors. However, after starting his sophomore campaign with a win, he finished third in the Florida Derby. He also had recovered from injuries to his front feet to win the Wood Memorial and then the Kentucky Derby.
Second-place finishes in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes left most observers with the idea that Foolish Pleasure was the best 3-year-old male in the business.
Following the Belmont Stakes, New York officials wanted to test the best filly against the best colt.
The original thought was to include the Preakness winner, Master Derby, in the Great Match Race, but the team of Foolish Pleasure’s owner, trainer and rider didn’t want a three-horse race. Since New York racing had guaranteed $50,000 to the last-place horse, they paid Master Derby’s connections $50,000 not to race. Thus, the stage was set for an equine morality play.
“[Ruffian’s] abilities gave her the advantage in the match race,” Janney said. “If she could do what she did in full fields [by getting the early lead], then it was probably going to be even more effective in a match.”
Several ballyhooed match races in sports history had captured the world’s attention without incident — Seabiscuit vs. Triple Crown winner War Admiral in 1938, Alsab vs. Triple Crown winner Whirlaway in 1942, and Nashua vs. Swaps in 1955. None of those races, though, had the gender divide “it” factor.
The Great Match Race attracted 50,000 live attendees and more than 18 million TV viewers on CBS, comparable to the Grammy Awards and a pair of NFL “Sunday Night Football” games in 2024.
Prominent New York sportswriter Dick Young wrote at the time that, for women, “Ruffian was a way of getting even.”
“I can remember driving up the New Jersey Turnpike, and the lady that took the toll in one of those booths was wearing a button that said, ‘I’m for her,’ meaning Ruffian,” Janney said.
As the day approached, Ruffian’s rider, Jacinto Vasquez, who also was the regular rider of Foolish Pleasure including at the Kentucky Derby, had to choose whom to ride for the match race.
“I had ridden Foolish Pleasure, and I knew what he could do,” Vasquez told ESPN. “But I didn’t think he could beat the filly. He didn’t have the speed or stamina.”
Braulio Baeza, who had ridden Foolish Pleasure to victory in the previous year’s premier 2-year-old race, Hopeful Stakes, was chosen to ride Foolish Pleasure.
“I had ridden Foolish Pleasure and ridden against Ruffian,” Baeza said, with language assistance from his wife, Janice Blake. “I thought Foolish Pleasure was better than Ruffian. She just needed [early race] pressure because no one had ever pressured her.”
The 1⅛ mile race began at the start of the Belmont Park backstretch in the chute. In an ESPN documentary from 2000, Jack Whitaker, who hosted the race telecast for CBS, noted that the atmosphere turned eerie with dark thunderclouds approaching before the race.
Ruffian hit the side of the gate when the doors opened but straightened herself out quickly and assumed the lead. “The whole world, including me, thought that Ruffian was going to run off the screen and add to her legacy,” said longtime New York trainer Gary Contessa, who was a teenager when Ruffian ruled the racing world.
However, about ⅛ of a mile into the race, the force of Ruffian’s mighty strides snapped two bones in her front right leg.
“When she broke her leg, it sounded like a broken stick,” Vasquez said. “She broke her leg between her foot and her ankle. When I pulled up, the bone was shattered above the ankle. She couldn’t use that leg at all.”
It took Ruffian a few moments to realize what had happened to her, so she continued to run. Vasquez eventually hopped off and kept his shoulder leaning against her for support.
“You see it, but you don’t want to believe it,” Janney said.
Baeza had no choice but to have Foolish Pleasure finish the race in what became a macabre paid workout. The TV cameras followed him, but the eyes of everyone at the track were on the filly, who looked frightened as she was taken back to the barn area.
“When Ruffian broke down, time stood still that day,” Contessa said. Yet time was of the essence in an attempt to save her life.
Janney said that Dr. Frank Stinchfield — who was the doctor for the New York Yankees then and was “ahead of his time in fixing people’s bones” — called racing officials to see whether there was anything he could do to help with Ruffian.
New York veterinarian Dr. Manny Gilman managed to sedate Ruffian, performed surgery on her leg and, with Stinchfield’s help, secured her leg in an inflatable cast. When Ruffian woke up in the middle of the night, though, she started fighting and shattered her bones irreparably. Her team had no choice but to euthanize her at approximately 2:20 a.m. on July 7.
“She was going full bore trying to get in front of [Foolish Pleasure] out of the gate,” Baeza said. “She gave everything there. She gave her life.”
Contessa described the time after as a “stilled hush over the world.”
“When we got the word that she had rebroken her leg, the whole world was crying,” Contessa said. “I can’t reproduce the feeling that I had the day after.”
The Janneys soon flew to Maine for the summer, and they received a round of applause when the pilot announced their presence. At the cottage, they were met by thousands of well-wishing letters.
“We all sat there, after dinner every night, and we wrote every one of them back,” Janney said. “It was pretty overwhelming, and that didn’t stop for a long time. I still get letters.”
Equine fatalities have been part of the business since its inception, like the Triple Crown races and Breeders’ Cup. Some have generated headlines by coming in clusters, such as Santa Anita in 2019 and Churchill Downs in 2023. However, breakdowns are not the only factor, and likely not the most influential one, in the gradual decline of horse racing’s popularity in this country.
But the impact from the day of Ruffian’s death, and that moment, has been ongoing for horse racing.
“There are people who witnessed the breakdown and never came back,” Contessa said.
Said Janney: “At about that time, racing started to disappear from the national consciousness. The average person knows about the Kentucky Derby, and that’s about it.”
Equine racing today is a safer sport now than it was 50 years ago. The Equine Injury Database, launched by the Jockey Club in 2008, says the fatality rate nationally in 2024 was just over half of what it was at its launch.
“We finally have protocols that probably should have been in effect far sooner than this,” Contessa said. “But the protocols have made this a safer game.”
Said Vasquez: “There are a lot of nice horses today, but to have a horse like Ruffian, it’s unbelievable. Nobody could compare to Ruffian.”
Sports
Volpe toss hits Judge as sloppy Yanks fall again
Published
14 hours agoon
July 6, 2025By
admin
-
Jorge CastilloJul 5, 2025, 09:42 PM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — A blunder that typifies the current state of the New York Yankees, who find themselves in the midst of their second six-game losing streak in three weeks, happened in front of 41,401 fans at Citi Field on Saturday, and almost nobody noticed.
The Yankees were jogging off the field after securing the third out of the fourth inning of their 12-6 loss to the Mets when shortstop Anthony Volpe, as is standard for teams across baseball at the end of innings, threw the ball to right fielder Aaron Judge as he crossed into the infield from right field.
Only Judge wasn’t looking, and the ball nailed him in the head, knocking his sunglasses off and leaving a small cut near his right eye. The wound required a bandage to stop the bleeding, but Judge stayed in the game.
“Confusion,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “I didn’t know what happened initially. [It just] felt like something happened. Of course I was a little concerned.”
Avoiding an injury to the best player in baseball was on the Yankees’ very short list of positives in another sloppy, draining defeat to their crosstown rivals. With the loss, the Yankees, who held a three-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East standings entering June 30, find themselves tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for second place three games behind the Blue Jays heading into Sunday’s Subway Series finale.
The nosedive has been fueled by messy defense and a depleted pitching staff that has encountered a wall.
“It’s been a terrible week,” said Boone, who before the game announced starter Clarke Schmidt will likely undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.
For the second straight day, the Mets capitalized on mistakes and cracked timely home runs. After slugging three homers in Friday’s series opener, the Mets hit three more Saturday — a grand slam in the first inning from Brandon Nimmo to take a 4-0 lead and two home runs from Pete Alonso to widen the gap.
Nimmo’s blast — his second grand slam in four days — came after Yankees left fielder Jasson Dominguez misplayed a ball hit by the Mets’ leadoff hitter in the first inning. On Friday, he misread Nimmo’s line drive and watched it sail over his head for a double. On Saturday, he was slow to react to Starling Marte’s flyball in the left-center field gap and braked without catching or stopping it, allowing Marte to advance to second for a double. Yankees starter Carlos Rodon then walked two batters to load the bases for Nimmo, who yanked a mistake, a 1-2 slider over the wall.
“That slider probably needs to be down,” said Rodon, who allowed seven runs (six earned) over five innings. “A lot of misses today and they punished them.”
Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s throwing woes at third base — a position the Yankees have asked him to play to accommodate DJ LeMahieu at second base — continued in the second inning when he fielded Tyrone Taylor’s groundball and sailed a toss over first baseman Cody Bellinger’s head. Taylor was given second base and scored moments later on Marte’s RBI single.
The Yankees were charged with their second error in the Mets’ four-run seventh inning when center fielder Trent Grisham charged Francisco Lindor’s single up the middle and had it bounce off the heel of his glove.
The mistake allowed a run to score from second base without a throw, extending the Mets lead back to three runs after the Yankees had chipped their deficit, and allowed a heads-up Lindor to advance to second base. Lindor later scored on Alonso’s second home run, a three-run blast off left-hander Jayvien Sandridge in the pitcher’s major league debut.
“Just got to play better,” Judge said. “That’s what it comes down to. It’s fundamentals. Making a routine play, routine. It’s just the little things. That’s what it kind of comes down to. But every good team goes through a couple bumps in the road.”
This six-game losing skid has looked very different from the Yankees’ first. That rough patch, consisting of losses to the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels, was propelled by offensive troubles. The Yankees scored six runs in the six games and gave up just 16. This time, run prevention is the issue; the Yankees have scored 34 runs and surrendered 54 in four games against the Blue Jays in Toronto and two in Queens.
“The offense is starting to swing the bat, put some runs on the board,” Boone said. “The pitching, which has kind of carried us a lot this season, has really, really struggled this week. We haven’t caught the ball as well as I think we should.
“So, look, when you live it and you’re going through it, it sucks, it hurts. But you got to be able to handle it. You got to be able to deal with it. You got to be able to weather it and come out of this and grow.”
Sports
Former White Sox pitcher, world champ Jenks dies
Published
17 hours agoon
July 6, 2025By
admin
-
ESPN News Services
Jul 5, 2025, 05:48 PM ET
Bobby Jenks, a two-time All-Star pitcher for the Chicago White Sox who was on the roster when the franchise won the 2005 World Series, died Friday in Sintra, Portugal, the team announced.
Jenks, 44, who had been diagnosed with adenocarcinoma, a form of stomach cancer, this year, spent six seasons with the White Sox from 2005 to 2010 and also played for the Boston Red Sox in 2011. The reliever finished his major league career with a 16-20 record, 3.53 ERA and 173 saves.
“We have lost an iconic member of the White Sox family today,” White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said in a statement. “None of us will ever forget that ninth inning of Game 4 in Houston, all that Bobby did for the 2005 World Series champions and for the entire Sox organization during his time in Chicago. He and his family knew cancer would be his toughest battle, and he will be missed as a husband, father, friend and teammate. He will forever hold a special place in all our hearts.”
After Jenks moved to Portugal last year, he was diagnosed with a deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. That eventually spread into blood clots in his lungs, prompting further testing. He was later diagnosed with adenocarcinoma and began undergoing radiation.
In February, as Jenks was being treated for the illness, the White Sox posted “We stand with you, Bobby” on Instagram, adding in the post that the club was “thinking of Bobby as he is being treated.”
In 2005, as the White Sox ended an 88-year drought en route to the World Series title, Jenks appeared in six postseason games. Chicago went 11-1 in the playoffs, and he earned saves in series-clinching wins in Game 3 of the ALDS at Boston, and Game 4 of the World Series against the Houston Astros.
Bobby will forever hold a special place in all our hearts 🤍 pic.twitter.com/CLNi7g0Tzh
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) July 5, 2025
In 2006, Jenks saved 41 games, and the following year, he posted 40 saves. He also retired 41 consecutive batters in 2007, matching a record for a reliever.
“You play for the love of the game, the joy of it,” Jenks said in his last interview with SoxTV last year. “It’s what I love to do. I [was] playing to be a world champion, and that’s what I wanted to do from the time I picked up a baseball.”
A native of Mission Hills, California, Jenks appeared in 19 games for the Red Sox and was originally drafted by the then-Anaheim Angels in the fifth round of the 2000 draft.
Jenks is survived by his wife, Eleni Tzitzivacos, their two children, Zeno and Kate, and his four children from a prior marriage, Cuma, Nolan, Rylan and Jackson.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Trending
-
Sports3 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years ago
Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years ago
Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike