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The 2022 MLB playoffs are here — and for the first time there are 12 teams battling for World Series glory.

With an extra round to begin the postseason and the possibility that this year’s Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it will be a very short October stay for some — and quite possibly the latest championship celebration in MLB history for the last squad standing.

Will the favored Los Angeles Dodgers rule the National League or will the repeat-minded Braves make another deep run? Can anyone in the American League keep the New York Yankees and Houston Astros from squaring off in the ALCS? And which teams are most likely to see their runs end this weekend?

MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with everything from odds for every matchup and a predicted date of each team’s last game to the best- and worst-case scenario for all 12 World Series hopefuls. World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.

Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.

Watch: Wild-card round, Friday-Sunday on ESPN & ABC | Bracket

Jump to a team:
TB | SEA | TOR | CLE | NYY | HOU
PHI | SD | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD

American League

Most likely to go home this weekend

Tampa Bay Rays

No. 6 seed | 86-75 | AL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Guardians (45.5% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3000

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9

How they could stay around longer: Yes, the Rays have a deep bullpen as always (check out the numbers for Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks), but the starting pitching is much better than you might realize. Shane McClanahan was a Cy Young candidate for three-fourths of the season, Drew Rasmussen has been consistent all season and Jeffrey Springs turned overnight from a mediocre reliever into a very good starter. All three finished with sub-3.00 ERAs. Then there’s Tyler Glasnow, who finally returned from Tommy John surgery in late September. If they need a fifth starter, there’s playoff-tested veteran Corey Kluber. The Rays have the pitching depth to withstand the rigors of a long October. — Schoenfield

What could send them home before you finish reading this: They fail to score runs. Only Cleveland hit fewer home runs among the playoff teams as the lineup simply lacks any star power. Wander Franco failed to ignite while battling injuries in his sophomore season. Brandon Lowe, a 39-homer slugger last season, is out for the season with a back injury. David Peralta hasn’t homered since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Yandy Diaz does get on base and Randy Arozarena has been a doubles machine — and we all remember his heroics in the 2020 postseason — but you have to wonder where the firepower will come from. — Schoenfield

One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Rays were swept by the Astros at home from Sept. 19 to 21, then dropped two of three against them on the road in the final weekend of the regular season. But it’s hard to glean much from that, especially in the latter series, when the Rays were resting key players to gear up for the postseason. The Rays can pitch with anyone, including the Astros. But their outfield defense could be a separator in a potential matchup. The Rays had the second-best defensive outfield in the majors this season, according to outs above average. And the Astros, unsurprisingly, hit a lot of fly balls. Jose Siri, one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, could play a big role — especially at Minute Maid Park. — Gonzalez


Seattle Mariners

No. 5 seed | 89-72 | AL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (42.4% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 2.2% | Caesars odds: +2000

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9

How they could stay around longer: Refuse to Lose. Anything Can Happen. True to the Blue. Believe. Hey, after Cal Raleigh clinched Seattle’s playoff spot and ended the franchise’s 21-year-old playoff drought with a dramatic pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run — maybe destiny is on the Mariners’ side. If you want a baseball reason, the bullpen is deep and built for October. But they’ll need to score some runs and to do that, how about a dream scenario: Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez returns from the sore back that sidelined him at the end of September and has a postseason for the ages. — Schoenfield

What could send them home before you finish reading this: The pitching will need to carry them, but it also looked a little fatigued at times down the stretch. Luis Castillo had three rough September starts when he suddenly lost it in the middle innings. Rookie George Kirby had been a model of consistency until a recent bad outing (and is well beyond his innings total from 2021). Robbie Ray had two scoreless starts in September mixed in with three mediocre ones. The bullpen was pushed hard throughout the season and closer Paul Sewald has been homer-prone of late. The Mariners don’t score enough runs to leave much margin for error, so the entire staff will need to bring it. — Schoenfield

One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros won 12 of 19 games against the Mariners, but they outscored Seattle by only eight runs. In the six games started by Justin Verlander, however, the Astros outscored their division rivals 30-11. Houston won five of those starts. In his past three outings against Seattle, Verlander allowed three runs in 21⅔ innings. In other words — it’s going to be crucial for Seattle to take advantage on the days Verlander doesn’t pitch. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have a 5.40 ERA in 48⅓ innings against the M’s this year. — Gonzalez


They should be around next week, but after that …

Cleveland Guardians

No. 3 seed | 91-70 | AL Central champs

Wild-card opponent: Rays (55.5% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15

How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense … and a dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges — have all been outstanding. They’re hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team. — Schoenfield

What could send them home before you finish reading this: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don’t buy that? In last year’s postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 — that’s 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn’t hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they’ll have to power up. — Schoenfield

One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only American League team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians — by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians’ recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run — and just hope the series doesn’t turn into a slugfest. — Gonzalez


Toronto Blue Jays

No. 4 seed | 92-70 | AL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Mariners (57.6% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 3.7% | Caesars odds: +1800

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16

How they could stay around longer: The offense goes off. The Blue Jays haven’t produced quite the same gaudy offensive numbers as they did in 2021, but that’s because offense is down across the league. When this offense is clicking it’s still as good as any in the game, with a mix of power and high-average hitters. A big key down the stretch was Bo Bichette, who hit .403 in September. Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are two of the better contact hitters in the game (and Vladdy obviously provides upper-deck power as well). And don’t forget that George Springer has been a great postseason performer in his career, hitting .269/.349/.546 with 19 home runs in 63 games. — Schoenfield

What could send them home before you finish reading this: The bullpen. Jordan Romano has been pretty good as the closer, although not exactly lights out with six blown saves (he did finish strong with 19 scoreless appearances in his final 20 outings). It’s getting to Romano that has been a little tricky. The bullpen was 16th in the majors in FanGraphs WAR, but ahead of only St. Louis and Milwaukee among playoff teams. Thanks to Romano, they were a little better in win probability added, but the lack of depth is an issue and, really, more than any of the other playoff teams, the Jays will need their starters to pitch deeper into games. — Schoenfield

One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Blue Jays’ three best starters pitched well against the Astros this season, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios combining to give up just five runs — and walk two batters — in 18⅔ innings over the course of three starts, all victories. None of those outings occurred beyond May 1, but it’s a positive sign nonetheless. The key here is Berrios, who has struggled mightily ever since. If he can get on track and be the elite starter the Blue Jays expect him to be, they’ll have a chance. The Blue Jays can hang with the Astros offensively. But they’ll probably need three bona fide, top-of-the-rotation arms to shut them down, not two. — Gonzalez


Better pack for the whole month

New York Yankees

No. 2 seed | 99-63 | AL East champs

ALDS opponent: Rays/Guardians (63.4% chance vs. TB, 64% vs. CLE)

World Series odds: 15.5% | Caesars odds: +500

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 25

How they could stay around longer: Maybe it’s unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole’s performance, especially since Frankie Montas wasn’t the big rotation addition the Yankees expected. When Cole bombed out early in the wild-card game against the Red Sox last season, the Yankees went home. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but he also led the American League with 32 home runs allowed — 16 of them off his four-seam fastball. Cole was especially homer-prone in September with nine in 30 innings and in his four career postseason starts with the Yankees he has allowed six in just 20⅓ innings. He has to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. — Schoenfield

What could send them home early: Opponents pitch around Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup fails to knock him in. When the Yankees struggled with a 10-18 record in August, they averaged just 3.61 runs per game — even as Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs. But as he continued mashing throughout the season, teams started walking him more often: 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees led the AL in runs, but they can’t expect one man to carry them for an entire postseason. It’s worth noting that in seven games against the Astros they hit just .151. — Schoenfield

One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros famously got the best of the Yankees during the regular season, winning five of seven. The encouraging news if you’re a Yankees fan: All seven games were decided by three runs or fewer. The not-so-encouraging news: The Yankees didn’t throw a single pitch with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies followed by walk-off hits from Judge. But the Astros were one of few teams that were actually able to keep Judge mostly in check, holding him to a .148/.258/.370 slash line. Needless to say, Judge’s bat needs to come alive in this potential heavyweight matchup. And the Yankees will have to play a clean, mistake-free brand of baseball. — Gonzalez


Most likely to be playing in November

Houston Astros

No. 1 seed | 106-56 | AL West champs

ALDS opponent: Mariners/Blue Jays (64% chance vs. SEA, 62.7% vs. TOR)

World Series odds: 18.0% | Caesars odds: +380

Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2

Why they are the AL’s team to beat: Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veteran holdovers from the 2017 World Series champions who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. Altuve quietly had one of his best seasons, with an OPS+ that matched his MVP season in 2017. Bregman, meanwhile, had a big second half, the best he’s hit since 2019. Altuve has been outstanding in his postseason career (.286/.361/.567, 23 home runs in 79 games) while Bregman less so (.226/.339/.400, 12 home runs in 73 games), but if they’re getting on base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, good things can happen. — Schoenfield

What could send them home early: The bottom of the lineup fails to contribute. The Astros don’t get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez (who hasn’t homered for Houston since coming over from Boston at the trade deadline). Yuli Gurriel had a rough season. Trey Mancini, the other trade acquisition, has hit under .200 for the Astros. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has seen his numbers drop in the second half. This lineup simply lacks the depth of some other Houston teams of recent vintage. If the big four don’t click, it could be a quick exit — no matter how dominant Justin Verlander and the rest of the rotation is. — Schoenfield

Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: Most of the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson will make up three-fourths of their postseason rotation. What do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. And the Astros — with a right-handed-heavy lineup headlined by Bregman and Altuve — feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter, the left-handed-hitting Alvarez, was elite against lefties, too. In a matchup of two teams that are pretty closely matched, it could make the difference. If the Astros can make a habit out of scoring early, they could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers — and their first without a cheating scandal. — Gonzalez

National League

Most likely to go home this weekend …

Philadelphia Phillies

No. 6 seed | 87-75 | NL third wild card

Wild-card opponent: Cardinals (39.7% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3500

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9

How they could stay around longer: The bullpen falls into place. Philadelphia has a 5.04 bullpen ERA since the beginning of September, a big contributor to Philly’s near-collapse down the stretch. Injuries have included Corey Knebel (done for the season) and Brad Hand (question mark for the playoffs). David Robertson will be a part of the high-leverage mix. Other solutions have emerged: converted starter Zach Eflin has flourished out of the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado has been as hot as any reliever. Struggling Seranthony Dominguez regaining the dominant form he flashed before an August injury might be enough to push the Phillies over the hump. — Doolittle

What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Cardinals’ staff keeps the Phillies in the yard. St. Louis is a low-strikeout pitching staff by contemporary standards. But Busch Stadium is stingy with homers and even on the road, the Cardinals don’t yield a high homer rate. Also, those contact-heavy pitchers are backed by baseball’s best defense. The Phillies own MLB’s third-highest homer rate and while they aren’t the most longball-dependent offense in the postseason, they aren’t far off. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins & Co. need to combine for two or three bombs per game or the Phillies will have a hard time turning the scoreboard. — Doolittle

One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The 2019 Washington Nationals proved you don’t need to be incredibly deep or even well-rounded to defeat the Dodgers in a short series. Sometimes, if the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to perform to their capabilities. Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS in 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 17⅔ innings. In those four — and catcher J.T. Realmuto — the Phillies boast upper-echelon talent. They’ll need them to do most of the heavy lifting to defeat L.A. — Gonzalez


San Diego Padres

No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL second wild card

Wild-card opponent: Mets (36.4% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 1.3% | Caesars odds: +2800

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9

How they could stay around longer: Juan Soto goes off. Soto went into a funk not long after the monumental midseason trade that sent him to San Diego. While his overall San Diego numbers are down even from his subpar pre-trade numbers in Washington, Soto has quietly been trending up over the past couple of weeks. And let’s not forget that when the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, Soto’s huge postseason as a 20-year-old had a lot to do with it. All the hand-wringing over Soto’s post-trade play would be forgotten if he has a big October. — Doolittle

What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Padres’ rotation, especially Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, carried them into the playoffs down the stretch. That success needs to continue, but it wouldn’t have mattered had closer Josh Hader not straightened himself out. After a catastrophic start to his Padres career, Hader finished strong — making his midseason slump all the more bewildering. What happens if the bizarro Hader returns? San Diego will be done, that’s what will happen. Sure, you can say the same thing about every team that leans on a primary closer — but not every team saw its relief ace pitch like Hader did in August. — Doolittle

One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Padres struggled mightily against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and getting outscored by a combined 62 runs. To beat L.A., they’ll need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn’t pitch against the Dodgers at all. They’ll need Soto and Manny Machado to be at their best. They’ll need Hader to be the lockdown closer they thought they were getting at the start of August. And they’ll need contributions from several others. Most of all, perhaps, they’ll need to summon some confidence. — Gonzalez

play

2:59

Tim Kurkjian and Eduardo Perrez preview all of the postseason Wild Card matchups.


They should be around next week, but after that …

St. Louis Cardinals

No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL Central champs

Wild-card opponent: Phillies (60.3% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 4.1% | Caesars odds: +2000

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15

How they could stay around longer: Stars of the past and stars of the present. Few players have had as many big October moments as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. This is their last shot at it and after what we’ve seen Pujols do since the All-Star break, the next chapter in this fairy tale would be a stirring playoff run. But for all the attention Pujols has rightly deserved, the Cardinals have featured a pair of NL MVP candidates in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Offense is hard to come by in the playoffs and one or two hot players can carry a team. If Arenado and Goldschmidt go off, it might not even matter what Pujols and Molina do. — Doolittle

What could send them home before you finish reading this: Picking the wrong playoff rotation. Ollie Marmol and his staff have tended to push the right buttons during their first go-around running the Redbirds, but piecing together a playoff rotation will be tough. St. Louis deepened its rotation with the midseason acquisitions of Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, while Jack Flaherty has been trending up. Adam Wainwright has been struggling but he’s Adam Wainwright. Then you’ve got Miles Mikolas, the club’s most consistent regular-season performer. St. Louis has at least five decent options but differentiating among them for the best possible matchups in a short series is quite a puzzle. — Doolittle

One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Dodgers are the kings of velocity. Their offense was by far the most productive in the sport against 95-plus mph fastballs this season. But that is not how this Cardinals rotation profiles. Wainwright relies mostly on a big curveball and throws his fastballs in the 80s. Montgomery relies heavily on curveballs and changeups. The same can be said for Quintana, whose fastball hardly ventures beyond the low 90s. Flaherty and Mikolas throw harder, but not by a whole lot. These are the types of arms that might stand the best chance of keeping the Dodgers’ hitters off balance. — Gonzalez


New York Mets

No. 4 seed | 101-61 | NL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Padres (63.6% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 5.4% | Caesars odds: +800

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15

How they could stay around longer: Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer return to peak form in both excellence and duration. That is to say, any game in which deGrom and Scherzer are able to dominate into the late innings and come close to handing the ball straight to dominant closer Edwin Diaz is a game that the Mets will be heavily favored to win — no matter who the opponent is. Scherzer has been Scherzer for most of the season but hasn’t often gone past the sixth inning of late. DeGrom enters the playoffs in a rough stretch by his standards. But if they go to another level when the October lights shine, would anyone be surprised? — Doolittle

What could send them home early: A Pete Alonso/Francisco Lindor power outage. The Mets built a potent offense all season with a balance of skill sets. They are the least homer-reliant club in the NL bracket. This is a good thing but base hits become harder to string together during the playoffs. The most consistent sources of power have been Alonso and Lindor. It’s not all about homers, but also plugging the gaps with runners on base: The pair have combined to drive in nearly a third of the runs the Mets have scored. New York can’t afford for them to go cold at the same time. — Doolittle

One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Mets are imperfect, but they possess what might be the best formula to take down the Dodgers — pitchers who can single-handedly dominate an entire series. Scherzer and deGrom can do that out of the rotation, and Diaz can do that out of the bullpen. It’ll require Scherzer to pitch on short rest — perhaps deGrom as well, though that is unlikely given his injury history and lingering free agency — and Diaz to contribute more than three outs. It won’t be easy, but no one said it would be. — Gonzalez

play

1:44

Eduardo Perrez and Tim Kurkjian talk about the New York Mets and their chances to advance this postseason.


Better pack for the whole month

Atlanta Braves

No. 2 seed | 101-61 | NL East champs

NLDS opponent: Phillies/Cardinals (61.5% chance vs. PHI, 55.8% vs. STL)

World Series odds: 12.5% | Caesars odds: +600

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 24

How they could stay around longer: If the bullpen falls into place like it did last October, look out. The Braves’ are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn’t need to lean quite as heavily on his fireman as he did en route to the 2021 title. But even if he does, the Atlanta bullpen as a group has been smoking hot of late — led by trade acquisition Raisel Iglesias, who has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves. Kenley Jansen has been very good, as have Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. If Tyler Matzek can find last season’s consistency, there might not be a bad lever for Snitker to pull. — Doolittle

What could send them home before you finish reading this: A couple of lifeless cutters in the wrong situation by Jansen. This isn’t to pick on Jansen. He’s had an excellent first season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a pretty good roll entering the playoffs. But he still isn’t the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn’t much else that might be a glaring issue. — Doolittle

One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS, splitting the two series, and they seem poised square off again. Outside of the Astros, the Braves might be the closest to matching the Dodgers’ depth and balance. Their separator could be in the bullpen. The three guys who entered this season as the Dodgers’ most important back-end relievers are either lost for the year (Daniel Hudson), pitching in low-leverage situations because of ineffectiveness (Craig Kimbrel) or recovering from injury (Blake Treinen). The Braves are as deep as ever in the back end of their bullpen, and this is a clear advantage for them. — Gonzalez


Most likely to be playing in November

Los Angeles Dodgers

No. 1 seed | 111-51 | NL West champs

NLDS opponent: Padres/Mets (75.2% chance vs. SD, 65.4% vs. NYM)

World Series odds: 30.6% | Caesars odds: +300

Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2

Why they are the team to beat in all of MLB: During the regular season, depth is what jumps to mind. L.A. has a roster and system of processes with so much quality redundancy built in that it’s hard to remember a time when we didn’t simply pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before a season began. Depth isn’t irrelevant in the playoffs, but it’s clearly not as big a factor with the possible exception of the back of the bullpen. The thing is, the Dodgers aren’t just about depth. They are about all of the things, and a team with star power like this has a talent edge on everyone. And, oh yeah, they just won 110** games with the run differential that suggests they were actually a little unlucky. — Doolittle

What could send them home early: The term “Achilles’ heel” has become such a sports cliche. If the Dodgers falter, maybe we’ll have to update it to “L.A. closer.” Like in the NFL, you might say, “They have an airtight defense but their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner.” The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors all season and have such a depth of impact talent in the organization that it’s dizzying. And yet they enter the playoffs with an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It’s hard to fathom. — Doolittle

Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: First, a tangible one: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ dynamic top-of-the-lineup trio is what separates them from everyone, even the most elite. No team can boast the combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and baserunning that those three possess in abundance. –

Now, an intangible one: Revenge. Betts, Turner and Freeman were not with the Dodgers when they lost the 2017 World Series to an Astros team that was later found to have illegally stolen signs. But a few others — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes — were. And beating the Astros on this stage would qualify as the ultimate payback, no matter how much these rosters have changed over the last five years. — Gonzalez

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A 40-year-old throwing 94.5 mph? A .696 batting average!? Spring training numbers we do (and don’t) believe in

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A 40-year-old throwing 94.5 mph? A .696 batting average!? Spring training numbers we do (and don't) believe in

Three weeks into spring training, the Athletics and Colorado Rockies have better Cactus League records than the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers. The Toronto Blue Jays, coming off a last-place finish, are atop the Grapefruit League while the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, considered top contenders for a National League pennant, sit near the bottom of the standings. Boston Red Sox journeyman Trayce Thompson leads the majors with six spring home runs.

It’s hard to know what to believe regarding spring training numbers, but every year some spring stats foretell a breakout season or the emergence of an unexpected contender — if you know where to look.

With that in mind, we asked our MLB experts to identify the most fascinating number of the spring so far and break down what it tells us about the regular season.


Jorge Castillo: 9⅔. That’s how many scoreless innings Clay Holmes has thrown over three starts this spring. The converted closer has surrendered two hits, struck out 13 and walked four. On Sunday, he compiled eight strikeouts and three walks in 67 pitches across 3⅔ innings — the most pitches he has thrown in a major league game since 2018.

That was also the last time Holmes started a game before this spring. He made four starts that season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting a 7.80 ERA in 15 innings. He became a full-time reliever the following season, was traded to the Yankees during summer 2021 and spent three-plus seasons as the club’s closer, making two All-Star teams in the role. So, it came as a surprise when rumblings surfaced that he could sign in the offseason as a starter entering his age-32 season.

The biggest challenge is obvious: figuring out how to maintain his stuff for longer durations while navigating lineups multiple times. Besides building up his pitch count, the sinker specialist has added a changeup for his return to starting. He threw the pitch seven times Sunday and induced five swing-and-misses. He was throwing 95 to 96 mph late in the outing. It’s just spring training. It’s super early. The sample size is small. But Holmes’ dominance is a promising development for a Mets rotation that will be without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas to begin the season.


Bradford Doolittle: 110.7 mph, which is the average exit velocity of Kris Bryant‘s first two extra-base hits this spring. Is it right? I don’t know! Does it mean anything? Beats me! What I do know is that Bryant’s career with the Rockies has been painful to witness and with each season, he’s looking increasingly feeble.

Those hits included a homer at 111.8 mph and a double at 109.6. If those numbers are correct, both balls were hit harder than any regular-season exit velocity reading he has recorded since joining Colorado. It’s great to see Bryant air out a swing again that once produced such jaw-dropping power. I hope it translates to a big and healthy season for him.


Alden Gonzalez: 1.444. That’s Corbin Carroll‘s OPS this spring. Before this year, he had played in 47 Cactus League games in his career and had never produced a home run. Through six games in 2025 — a stint briefly interrupted by what was described as a mild case of lower back tightness — he has three.

And though it’s easy to dismiss star players’ spring training stats, keep in mind that Carroll spent four months last season searching for answers before finally working out of a dreadful slump. With that version of Carroll, the Arizona Diamondbacks won 89 games in 2024 — five more than in 2023, when they advanced to the World Series — but still not enough to get into the playoffs.

D-backs officials watched Carroll recover after struggling for the first time, and they believe he’ll be much better for it. A big year is anticipated. If Carroll is unlocked, the D-backs’ offense will be a force. If that happens, and they pair it with what looks like a dominant starting rotation … well, maybe the Dodgers might have something to worry about.


Kiley McDaniel: 518 rpm, which was the average spin rate of Roki Sasaki’s 18 splitters in his debut outing. Those splitters averaged an induced vertical break (IVB) of -4.3 and an average velocity of 85.8 mph. For context, no splitter in the big leagues last year averaged a spin rate that low or had that much sink.

Due to the low spin, there’s an unpredictable knuckleball-like quality to Sasaki’s splitter, with a wide variance of vertical and horizontal movement from pitch to pitch. Some have five inches of glove-side cut, with the velocity and shape of a slider, and some have seven inches or arm-side run, like roughly an average splitter; the vertical break also ranged from +1 to -10. Sasaki threw 10 of 18 splitters for strikes and seven of eight swings against the pitch were misses, with the other swing producing a flyout from Jake Fraley that had an expected batting average of .000.

Sasaki’s splitter averaged over 90 mph and about 1,100 rpm in the World Baseball Classic in 2023. Scouts I spoke with this winter either put a 70- or 80-grade on the pitch (with 80 being the highest on the scouting scale) and now I’m leaning more toward the latter.


Buster Olney: 9-to-1. That’s the ratio of walks-to-strikeouts this spring for 30-year-old outfielder Alex Call, and these are numbers I’ve never seen. Nine walks and one strikeout in his first 27 plate appearances this spring. And he has an OPS of 1.056. We don’t think of plate discipline as a skill that improves significantly over a career, but it seems like that’s what has happened with Call, a third-round pick of the White Sox in 2016. He has bounced around the minor leagues for a while, accumulating 22 walks and 93 strikeouts over 81 games in Double-A in 2019. And in 30 games for the Nationals last year, he had a slash line of .343/.425/.525. He has figured out something.

“He’s always given us good at-bats,” Nationals GM Mike Rizzo wrote in a text. “He’s got a grinder-type approach at the plate that has served him well, and I think that with consistent at-bats, he’s seeing it well. Great guy to have.”


Jeff Passan: .696. The list of single-season spring training batting average leaders over the past half-decade is mostly a who’s who of “Who?” The top three: Max Schrock, Kevin Newman and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. So this is not to suggest that Curtis Mead — he of that otherworldly batting average above — is about to be a world-beater. But Mead gained 20 pounds of muscle and leaned up this winter, and the results have thrust the 24-year-old, once a top prospect, into contention for real at-bats on a Tampa Bay team teeming with talented young position players.

Mead started the spring 10-for-12, went into an 0-for-2 slump, uncorked a 4-for-4 afternoon and has tallied a hit in each of his last two games since. In total, he is 16-for-23. Only two of those hits are for extra bases, but who cares? Mead’s 1.611 OPS ranks sixth among players with at least 20 plate appearances this spring, and if he keeps hitting like this, the Rays will find those ABs one way or another.


Jesse Rogers: .309. It’s what the Chicago Cubs are hitting, 28 points higher than the next-best offense in either Arizona or Florida.

What’s behind the hot spring for so many Chicago hitters? An early start to the regular season, for one. The Cubs and Dodgers face off in Japan on March 18 so everyone is a little ahead of schedule. The team also turned over all its backups from last year’s roster so there’s fierce competition for playing time behind the regulars.

For example, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is hitting .438 with three home runs while OF Greg Allen is 9-for-16. Meanwhile, young players such as Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya have picked up where they left off last season. Crow-Armstong looks like a star in the making. And the Cubs are doing this with newcomer Kyle Tucker struggling so far. Tucker was 0-for-20 before finally hitting a home run Sunday — yet the Cubs are the lone team hitting .300 this spring. It feels like the floor and ceiling have been raised at the plate for Chicago this year. Just how much remains to be seen.


David Schoenfield: 94.5 mph. That’s what Max Scherzer‘s fastball hit during Saturday’s dominant 10-out start against the Tigers, in which the new Blue Jays starter allowed just one hit and struck out six. His numbers through three spring appearances look like vintage Scherzer: 9 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 14 SO. Scherzer missed time last season after offseason back surgery followed by shoulder and hamstring injuries that limited him to nine starts and 43 innings while his fastball averaged just 92.5 mph.

He’s 40 years old and looks healthy. The Blue Jays’ one-year, $15.5 million deal could be one of the offseason’s biggest bargains.

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The biggest spring questions for college football’s Way-Too-Early Top 25

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The biggest spring questions for college football's Way-Too-Early Top 25

Last week, we touched on key players who did not enter the transfer portal from each Way-Too-Early Top 25 team. This week, we take a look at the biggest questions that loom for each team that made the list ahead of next season. Will the portal pick-ups for these teams pay off? How will big-name recruits play out in the spotlight? Will offseason changes hold back certain teams?

Here are our writers discuss the biggest spring questions for each team.

Who will earn the starting quarterback position?

Quarterback Will Howard exceeded all expectations when he transferred from Kansas State for his final season. In the College Football Playoff, Howard posted a QBR of 97.2 while completing 75.2% of his passes, as Ohio State won its first national championship in a decade. Freshman Julian Sayin enters the spring as the favorite to replace Howard. Sayin, who transferred to Ohio State from Alabama after coach Nick Saban’s retirement, was a top 10 overall recruit last year. He has the talent — and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith to throw to — to keep the Ohio State offense rolling. But Sayin will have to fend off another talented passer, true freshman Tavien St. Clair, who was a top 10 overall recruit in this class, to ultimately win the job. — Jake Trotter


Will the new defensive tackles be able to fill the shoes of former players at the position?

For the past two years, Texas has had a luxury at defensive tackle, a rarity in the portal era. In the 2024 NFL draft, Byron Murphy II went No. 16 to the Seattle Seahawks and T’Vondre Sweat was picked No. 38 by the Tennessee Titans while Vernon Broughton (6-foot-4, 305 pounds) and Alfred Collins (6-5, 320 pounds) slid right into their places. But those two are gone, along with four other defensive linemen who departed via the portal. The Longhorns backfilled by adding 6-3, 333-pound Cole Brevard from Purdue, 6-5, 330-pound Travis Shaw from North Carolina and Ohio State transfer Hero Kanu, at 6-5, 305 pounds. They’ve also added one of the nation’s best recruits in Justus Terry, the No. 2 defensive tackle in the 2025 ESPN 300 and No. 8 overall prospect. Texas has veteran edge rushers in breakout star Colin Simmons, Trey Moore and Ethan Burke, but the big D-tackles have made Texas one of the toughest teams to run against, and has allowed linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. to roam free as a playmaker. A restocked middle of the line will keep the Longhorns dangerous up front. — Dave Wilson


How will new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles fare in his first season at Penn State?

Penn State’s defense has had good coordinator transitions under coach James Franklin, most recently from Brent Pry to Manny Diaz to Tom Allen. The switch from Allen to Jim Knowles, whom Penn State swiped from Big Ten rival and reigning national champion Ohio State, is expected to be just as smooth but remains a notable question entering the spring. Knowles showed at Ohio State that he could not only craft strong schemes, but can maximize the talents of elite players. He must do the same for a Penn State defense losing Abdul Carter, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and other standouts such as safety Jaylen Reed. But Penn State returns Dani Dennis-Sutton, linebacker Dominic DeLuca, safety Zakee Wheatley and others. If Knowles can maintain or elevate the defense’s trajectory, Penn State should be a legitimate national title contender. — Adam Rittenberg


Who will start at quarterback for the Fighting Irish?

In each of the past two seasons, Notre Dame has gone into the portal for a veteran QB. So far, the Irish look more than happy to ride with the players they have returning, which makes for a particularly intriguing storyline this spring. Steve Angeli is the veteran, with 80 pass attempts and one start under his belt, but he’s hardly the clear-cut favorite. In fact, the name getting the most buzz is redshirt freshman CJ Carr, who has a world of talent and is seen as the option with the most upside. Then there’s third-year QB Kenny Minchey and true freshman Blake Hebert, who’ll at least get a shot to make an impression. In the past decade, Notre Dame has had a handful of seasons in which multiple QBs had playing time (2015, 2018) but 2022 was the last true spring QB competition without an incumbent on the roster. Perhaps not coincidentally, it was also the only year since 2017 in which the Irish didn’t win 10 games. — David Hale


Can the new Bulldogs’ pass catchers solve their dropped passes issue?

From struggling to run the ball to games with multiple interceptions to failing on third-down conversions, Georgia’s offense had myriad problems in 2024. But no issue received as much attention as dropped passes — the Bulldogs had more than any other team in a Power 4 conference. It put Georgia behind the chains too many times and killed promising drives. The Bulldogs addressed the problem by adding two proven receivers from the transfer portal: USC‘s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas. Thomas, 6-6 and 210 pounds, gives Georgia a red-zone target. Colbie Young, another big target, is expected to be available after pleading no contest to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct on Jan. 29 to resolve a domestic violence case. The Bulldogs also need Dillon Bell to reach his full potential, and Nitro Tuggle and Sacovie White to continue to develop as reliable pass catchers. Freshman C.J. Wiley, a Georgia native, has also turned heads in his first couple of months on campus after enrolling in January. — Mark Schlabach


Can Dante Moore begin to live up to the success of the Ducks’ previous two quarterbacks?

Under Dan Lanning, Oregon has found success in becoming a final stop for transfer quarterbacks and turning them into Heisman contenders. First, it was Bo Nix, then it was Dillon Gabriel; now it’s hoping it can do the same with Moore. But his case is a little different. Moore is younger and has spent only one season at a different program (freshman year at UCLA) while also spending last year under the tutelage of Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein. With Gabriel gone, it’s now Moore’s time to shine. With the Bruins, the former five-star recruit struggled but showed enough flashes to prove his talent could translate to the next level. A year spent watching Gabriel and learning the Ducks’ offense should have done wonders for his development and Stein has been adamant that his offensive philosophy is malleable depending on the kind of quarterback he has. On paper, Moore should have a breakout season, but just how the Ducks utilize and build the unit around him to maximize success remains to be seen. — Paolo Uggetti


How does running back shape up?

Clemson might rank No. 1 in the country in returning offensive production with Cade Klubnik and all of his top receivers coming back, but running back is a key area that needs some answers this spring. Starter Phil Mafah and his 1,115 yards are gone to the NFL. His backup Jay Haynes remains out indefinitely after injuring his knee in the ACC championship game. That leaves Keith Adams Jr — with 30 carries for 122 yards last season — as the most productive running back returning. To address this, Clemson is trying out 6-2, 225-pound receiver Adam Randall at running back this spring after he contributed there in the College Football Playoff loss to Texas. Clemson also has true freshman Gideon Davidson, the player of the year in Virginia who enrolled early and is practicing, and will continue to take a look at Jarvis Green and David Eziomume. — Andrea Adelson


What changes will be made to LSU’s offensive line?

The Tigers are faced with replacing four of their five starters on the offensive line, including tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., who won’t have to wait long to hear their names called in the NFL draft next month. DJ Chester returns at center, but he’s likely to end up shifting to another position up front, probably guard. In other words, the spring will be a time for LSU to look at a couple of different combinations in what will be a retooled offensive line in 2025. Tyree Adams earned some key experience in the bowl game after stepping in at left tackle when Campbell opted out, and an integral part of the Tigers’ talented transfer portal class were the additions of Northwestern’s Josh Thompson, who can play tackle or guard, and Virginia Tech’s Braelin Moore, who can play guard or center. It’s also a big spring for sophomore tackle Weston Davis, who was a five-star recruit a year ago but played only 20 snaps. He’s probably the favorite to earn the starting right tackle spot. — Chris Low


Where is the depth?

With several key players back from a team that went 11-2 in 2024, BYU finds itself in an enviable spot this spring. It has quarterback Jake Retzlaff coming back with one of the best defenses in the country and a solid group of skill players on offense. The Cougars will head into 2025 with some of their highest expectations in years. The key now is development. If they can elevate some roles or reserve players from last year to be key contributors, then there is every reason to believe this is a team that will compete for a playoff spot. — Kyle Bonagura


Can LaNorris Sellers hit another level and lift the Gamecocks to true SEC and playoff contention?

Sellers earned the nickname “Superman” while he emerged as one of college football’s breakout stars last fall, charging South Carolina to only its sixth nine-win season since 1984 and vaulting the Gamecocks within spitting distance of the 12-team CFP field. He closed his first season as a starter with 3,208 total yards and 25 touchdowns, and Sellers played his best football when the Gamecocks did in 2024, shining across a six-game win streak to close the regular season. South Carolina will look for Sellers to improve his downfield accuracy and cut down on turnovers as a second-year starter. And the next steps in his development might also hinge on the players around him, too, as the Gamecocks work to replace running back Rocket Sanders with a handful of new starters on the offensive line. But if Sellers returns as a more refined version of the player he was in 2024, South Carolina will enter the fall with a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender and a quarterback capable of potentially carrying the program to its first playoff appearance. — Eli Lederman


How can the Cyclones replace Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel?

We’re talking about a pair of receivers that both had at least 80 catches and went for over 1,100 yards last season. They brought in Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF) to help shore up production, but it’s probably unrealistic to expect receiver play to be at the level it was with Higgins and Noel paired up last season. Still, this is a team that has had a winning record in seven of coach Matt Campbell’s eight seasons. He has shown he can turn over a roster and continue to win games. — Bonagura


Who can step up at running back next season?

Alabama finished sixth in the SEC in rushing offense last season, but quarterback Jalen Milroe was easily the most dynamic component of the Crimson Tide’s running game. With Milroe off to the NFL and Justice Haynes transferring to Michigan, one of the priorities will be figuring out the pecking order at running back and identifying at least two or three backs new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb can be comfortable with in returning the position to a more traditional role. Jam Miller is Alabama’s leading returning rusher and perhaps this is his season to break out, but it was tough sledding for him down the stretch a year ago. He averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and didn’t rush for any touchdowns in his final five games. Behind him, there is very little SEC experience. This will be Richard Young‘s third year on campus. He was hampered by injuries last season. Louisiana transfer Dre’lyn Washington is another player to watch, along with 6-foot, 205-pound freshman Akylin Dear, ranked by ESPN as the nation’s No. 2 running back prospect in the 2025 class. — Low


Who will be quarterback Luke Altmyer‘s primary passing targets this fall?

The exciting thing for Illinois is that its roster and coaching staff don’t change dramatically after a season that resulted in 10 wins and a No. 16 AP poll finish. As coach Bret Bielema told me, “The best thing for us is our best players are back.” But one position Illinois must replenish is wide receiver, as All-Big Ten standout Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin both depart after combining for 1,636 receiving yards and 109 receptions in 2024. Illinois returns Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon, who finished third and fourth on the team in receptions last fall, and also added transfers Hudson Clement (West Virginia) and Justin Bowick (Ball State). Illinois’ overall offensive numbers last fall weren’t eye-popping, but Altmyer’s return under coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. could lead to a spike. — Rittenberg


Without Cam Skattebo, where does the offensive production come from?

It’s hard to overstate how important Skattebo was to the Sun Devils during their surprising run to the College Football Playoff. The guy did it all. He ran for over 1,700 yards with another 605 receiving. There isn’t a like-for-like replacement who can make up for his loss. So, this spring, ASU will set out to make up for his departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt‘s return gives ASU an established winner at quarterback and running back Kyson Brown showed flashes last season that he can be a dangerous player. — Bonagura


Who will be Kevin Jennings primary passing target next season?

Perhaps SMU fans would like a little reassurance on Jennings at quarterback after a disastrous playoff performance (and five turnovers in his final two games), but the Mustangs still have one of the best QBs in the conference, regardless of how 2024 ended. The bigger question is just who Jennings will be distributing the ball to in 2025. Gone are three of his top four wide receivers, his most productive tight end and star tailback Brashard Smith. But that doesn’t mean there’s a lack of talent. Tight end RJ Maryland returns from injury, along with blue-chip recruits Daylon Singleton and Jalen Cooper at receiver, and a handful of last year’s backups — former Texas A&M back LJ Johnson Jr., former Miami wide receiver Romello Brinson — who’ll have a chance to make a bigger impact. It took SMU a few games last season to really find its stride offensively, but identifying the foundation of the upcoming season’s unit needs to be a priority coming out of spring. — Hale


How can the offensive line keep steady following a lot of change?

Kansas State’s consistency is enviable in the topsy-turvy Big 12 and a big part of that has been because of its offensive line. Last season, the Wildcats lost four of their five starters and still gave up the 10th-fewest sacks nationally at one per game, while ranking 11th nationally in rushing offense at 215.5 yards per game. But the Wildcats lost offensive line coach Conor Riley to the Dallas Cowboys, and lost both tackles to graduation and the portal. They added one of the best tackles in the portal, Ohio State’s George Fitzpatrick, along with Brandon Sneh of Wagner and guard Amos Talalele of USC. The Wildcats’ offensive machine doesn’t lack star power with Avery Johnson at QB and Dylan Edwards, who was last seen running for a school bowl record 196 yards and two TDs in a win against Rutgers, in his first game as the featured back. But it’ll need the big guys up front to keep it humming. — Wilson


How can Indiana improve its line-of-scrimmage play?

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza‘s arrival from Cal to replace NFL-bound Kurtis Rourke will generate attention, but the performance change there doesn’t figure to be dramatic one way or the other. Indiana’s line-of-scrimmage play propelled the team to a 10-0 start and a historic 2024 season, but it also showed cracks in losses to Ohio State and Notre Dame. Both the offensive and defensive lines will be replacing key players such as Mike Katic and CJ West, but both groups also return key players, including All-Big Ten defensive lineman Mikail Kamara and left tackle Carter Smith. The offensive line also added notable transfers Pat Coogan, who started for Notre Dame during its CFP run, as well as Zen Michalski (Ohio State) and Kahlil Benson (Colorado). Indiana’s staying power as a good to very good program under coach Curt Cignetti hinges on avoiding line drop-offs. The new-look offensive line, in particular, must come together this spring. — Rittenberg


Can Florida convert its late-season surge into contention among the upper half of the SEC in 2025?

The Gators reshaped the arch of Billy Napier’s third season — and his broader tenure in Gainesville — with four consecutive victories to close 2024, including ranked wins over LSU and Ole Miss. The Gators’ win streak coincided with the emergence of former five-star passer DJ Lagway, who returns in 2025 as one of the nation’s most promising young quarterbacks. Lagway will operate this fall alongside 2024 breakout running back Jadan Baugh and behind an experienced offensive line, while Florida’s talented and young defense is tasked with replacing leading tacklers Shemar James, Trikweze Bridges and Jack Pyburn under the new leadership of co-coordinators Ron Roberts and Vinnie Sunseri. The departures of top pass catchers Chimere Dike and Elijah Badger leave the Gators also searching for new production at wide receiver in 2025. Whether Florida can get similar output from Eugene Wilson III (returning from hip surgery) or freshmen Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson and Naeshuan Montgomery, stands as one of the central questions as the Gators attempt to build on last season’s finish as it faces the nation’s second-toughest schedule in 2025, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. — Lederman


What does Nico Iamaleava and the Vols’ wide receivers need to work on ahead of the fall?

There will be a lot of eyes on Iamaleava at quarterback as he enters his third year on campus, in particular whether he can put up more impressive numbers in the passing game. In Tennessee’s three losses last season, Iamaleava never threw for more than 170 yards and was held without a touchdown pass. In the final two losses of the season to Ohio State and Georgia, he didn’t have a completion longer than 21 yards. But it’s not all on Iamaleava. He’s going to need more help in 2025 from his receivers, and four of his top five pass catchers from last season are gone. Former five-star signee Mike Matthews, after initially entering the transfer portal in the winter, is back and a popular choice to be one of college football’s top breakout players next season. The Vols will need him to be after he caught only seven passes as a freshman. Chris Brazzell II, who transferred last year from Tulane, is the only returning wide receiver on the roster who had more than 100 receiving yards last season. Braylon Staley, now in his second year on campus, will get a big opportunity to move up the depth chart this spring along with Alabama transfer Amari Jefferson and incoming freshmen Radarius Jackson and Travis Smith Jr. — Low


What’s the status of the secondary?

Too often last year, Louisville’s talented defensive backs got burned. This year, the unit will feature a plethora of new faces, with three-quarters of last year’s starters out the door (along with top backups at corner). Louisville went heavy in the portal, identifying what the Cardinals hope are diamonds from lower levels, including Jacksonville State’s Jabari Mack, Florida International‘s JoJo Evans, Louisiana’s Justin Agu and Southern’s Rodney Johnson Jr. Are those additions ready for the step up in class? A spring against an explosive offense led by Miller Moss, Caullin Lacy & Co. ought to be a good first test. — Hale


Will Bryce Underwood be ready to start right away?

Underwood is the most hyped incoming freshman in the country following his high-profile (and high-dollar) commitment flip from LSU to Michigan. The No. 1 overall recruit of the 2024 class, Underwood gives the Wolverines a tantalizing talent at quarterback a year after Michigan cycled through three quarterbacks (Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle), who posted a combined QBR (48.5) that ranked 15th in the Big Ten. Underwood will have every opportunity to win the starting job. But the Wolverines also added Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene, who has thrown for 8,245 yards and 65 touchdowns in his career, to bridge the gap if Underwood isn’t ready yet. — Trotter


What exactly will Collin Klein’s offense look like?

In his first season in College Station, Klein navigated an offensive line that had struggled previously but improved. Conner Weigman returned from injury, then struggled, was benched and transferred to Houston as Marcel Reed took over at quarterback, and running back Le’Veon Moss was leading the SEC in rushing yards before he sustained a season-ending injury, with Rueben Owens missing all but two games last season. They both return along with Amari Daniels. But Noah Thomas, the Aggies’ leading receiver with 39 catches for 574 yards, departed for Georgia, a blow to a passing attack that ranked 87th last season nationally. The Aggies brought in transfers Kevin “KC” Concepcion (NC State), Micah Hudson (Texas Tech), Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and Jonah Wilson (Houston) for a makeover at the position, and also added tight end transfers Amari Niblack (Texas), Micah Riley (Auburn) and Nate Boerkircher (Nebraska). — Wilson


How will the revamped defense look?

It is no secret the Miami defense let the team down after a stellar season from quarterback Cam Ward. Look no further than the regular-season finale against Syracuse, in which Miami gave up 42 points and lost its chance to play for an ACC championship. Coach Mario Cristobal fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and hired Corey Hetherman from Minnesota to lead the defense. The Hurricanes also hit the transfer portal hard to help their beleaguered secondary, adding three highly rated players in Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State). The three combined for 12 interceptions last season. Brantley was a three-year starter and will be counted on to lead. Miami also signed Emmanuel Karnley (Arizona) to help add depth. — Adelson


How will Boise State begin to replace Ashton Jeanty‘s production?

There is no easy or simple way to plug and play any one running back to replace Jeanty and the historic season he had last season. Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines probably will share the load at running back, but the Broncos’ offense might need to rely more on returning quarterback Maddux Madsen. With Jeanty as the focal point of the offense, Madsen game-managed his way through the season well and showed flashes of his potential toward the back end of Boise’s dream season. He finished with over 3,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns, but now that Jeanty’s gone, it’s likely that Madsen will need to make an even bigger leap and become the offensive leader for the Broncos, whose new offensive coordinator, Matt Miller, was also previously the team’s passing game coordinator. Spring ball will be the first tell on whether Boise starts to shift more to a pass-first offense. — Uggetti


Will Lane Kiffin’s portal pick-ups pay off?

Kiffin has brandished his reputation as college football’s “Portal King,” and his ability to build through the transfer portal will be put to the test again. Ole Miss furnished a 2024 playoff contender with 25 transfers, led by eventual first-team All-SEC defenders Walter Nolen, Princely Umanmielen and Trey Amos. All three are gone, but Ole Miss still holds the foundation of a dominant defensive line between returners Suntarine Perkins and Zxavian Harris. Alongside them, the Rebels turned to the portal again to reinforce their defense, bringing in edge rushers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU), linebacker Jaden Yates (Marshall) and a collection of defensive backs in Antonio Kite (Auburn), Sage Ryan (LSU), Jaylon Braxton (Arkansas) and Kapena Gushiken (Washington State). Wide receivers Harrison Wallace III (Penn State) and De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State) and tight end Luke Hasz (Arkansas) lead a cast of seven new pass catchers around quarterback Austin Simmons, a redshirt sophomore who is set to fill the shoes of three-year starter Jaxson Dart. Transfer offensive linemen Patrick Kutas (Arkansas) and Delano Townsend (UAB) should both slot into starting roles for Ole Miss, where offseason transfer turnover has become the norm. — Lederman

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No. 2 pick Levshunov makes Blackhawks debut

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No. 2 pick Levshunov makes Blackhawks debut

DENVER — The nerves, Chicago defenseman Artyom Levshunov insisted, were nonexistent ahead of his NHL debut Monday night against Colorado.

Excitement, sure, but no pregame jitters hours before the opening faceoff.

“Why?” the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft casually said of nerves. “It’s a hockey game. I’ve got to go and do my job, play hard.”

The 19-year-old from Belarus held up quite well, too. He skated for almost 21 minutes in a 3-0 loss to Nathan MacKinnon and the high-flying Avalanche. The game was scoreless before the last-place Blackhawks faltered in the third period.

“They’re a really good team. They have a lot of good players,” Levshunov before the loss. “I have to play better.”

Attempting to stop Colorado, with all its scoring and speed, can only build confidence.

“That is almost better, getting thrown into the wolves here with (Cale Makar) and Nate just flying at you,” second-year forward Connor Bedard said. “Every team you play has great players, but those two guys are flying. Every night you’re playing against great players so I think there’s going to be challenges every game.”

The 6-foot-2, 208-pound Levshunov missed the start of the season because of a fractured right foot. He was recalled by Chicago on Sunday from Rockford of the American Hockey League, where he had five goals and 17 assists in 50 games.

“Of course, I was dreaming about this all my hockey life,” said Levshunov, who signed an entry-level contract with Chicago in July after spending one season at Michigan State, where he was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. “I was waiting for this a long time.”

Bedard offered a piece of advice: Soak in the moment.

“We’re not putting any pressure on him or anything,” Bedard said. “Just play his game. There’s always learning curves with anyone. We know he’s going to be great, and we’re just excited for him.”

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