Everything you need for the 2022 MLB playoffs: Odds, strengths (and weaknesses) and how far all 12 teams will go
The 2022 MLB playoffs are here — and for the first time there are 12 teams battling for World Series glory.
With an extra round to begin the postseason and the possibility that this year’s Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it will be a very short October stay for some — and quite possibly the latest championship celebration in MLB history for the last squad standing.
Will the favored Los Angeles Dodgers rule the National League or will the repeat-minded Braves make another deep run? Can anyone in the American League keep the New York Yankees and Houston Astros from squaring off in the ALCS? And which teams are most likely to see their runs end this weekend?
MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with everything from odds for every matchup and a predicted date of each team’s last game to the best- and worst-case scenario for all 12 World Series hopefuls. World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Watch: Wild-card round, Friday-Sunday on ESPN & ABC | Bracket
Jump to a team:
TB | SEA | TOR | CLE | NYY | HOU
PHI | SD | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD
American League
Most likely to go home this weekend
No. 6 seed | 86-75 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Guardians (45.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Yes, the Rays have a deep bullpen as always (check out the numbers for Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks), but the starting pitching is much better than you might realize. Shane McClanahan was a Cy Young candidate for three-fourths of the season, Drew Rasmussen has been consistent all season and Jeffrey Springs turned overnight from a mediocre reliever into a very good starter. All three finished with sub-3.00 ERAs. Then there’s Tyler Glasnow, who finally returned from Tommy John surgery in late September. If they need a fifth starter, there’s playoff-tested veteran Corey Kluber. The Rays have the pitching depth to withstand the rigors of a long October. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: They fail to score runs. Only Cleveland hit fewer home runs among the playoff teams as the lineup simply lacks any star power. Wander Franco failed to ignite while battling injuries in his sophomore season. Brandon Lowe, a 39-homer slugger last season, is out for the season with a back injury. David Peralta hasn’t homered since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Yandy Diaz does get on base and Randy Arozarena has been a doubles machine — and we all remember his heroics in the 2020 postseason — but you have to wonder where the firepower will come from. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Rays were swept by the Astros at home from Sept. 19 to 21, then dropped two of three against them on the road in the final weekend of the regular season. But it’s hard to glean much from that, especially in the latter series, when the Rays were resting key players to gear up for the postseason. The Rays can pitch with anyone, including the Astros. But their outfield defense could be a separator in a potential matchup. The Rays had the second-best defensive outfield in the majors this season, according to outs above average. And the Astros, unsurprisingly, hit a lot of fly balls. Jose Siri, one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, could play a big role — especially at Minute Maid Park. — Gonzalez
No. 5 seed | 89-72 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (42.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.2% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Refuse to Lose. Anything Can Happen. True to the Blue. Believe. Hey, after Cal Raleigh clinched Seattle’s playoff spot and ended the franchise’s 21-year-old playoff drought with a dramatic pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run — maybe destiny is on the Mariners’ side. If you want a baseball reason, the bullpen is deep and built for October. But they’ll need to score some runs and to do that, how about a dream scenario: Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez returns from the sore back that sidelined him at the end of September and has a postseason for the ages. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The pitching will need to carry them, but it also looked a little fatigued at times down the stretch. Luis Castillo had three rough September starts when he suddenly lost it in the middle innings. Rookie George Kirby had been a model of consistency until a recent bad outing (and is well beyond his innings total from 2021). Robbie Ray had two scoreless starts in September mixed in with three mediocre ones. The bullpen was pushed hard throughout the season and closer Paul Sewald has been homer-prone of late. The Mariners don’t score enough runs to leave much margin for error, so the entire staff will need to bring it. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros won 12 of 19 games against the Mariners, but they outscored Seattle by only eight runs. In the six games started by Justin Verlander, however, the Astros outscored their division rivals 30-11. Houston won five of those starts. In his past three outings against Seattle, Verlander allowed three runs in 21⅔ innings. In other words — it’s going to be crucial for Seattle to take advantage on the days Verlander doesn’t pitch. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have a 5.40 ERA in 48⅓ innings against the M’s this year. — Gonzalez
They should be around next week, but after that …
No. 3 seed | 91-70 | AL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Rays (55.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: The Guardians have drawn comparisons to the 2014-15 Royals for their style of play: Contact hitting, speed, defense … and a dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase is as good as any closer this side of Edwin Diaz and the top three setup relievers in front of him — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and lefty Sam Hentges — have all been outstanding. They’re hard to hit, they strike batters out and all four are stingy with the home run. The pen has been even better since the beginning of July, with the second-best ERA in the majors behind the Dodgers. Get a lead through five or six and the Guardians almost always hold it. October baseball has become more and more about the bullpens and Cleveland can match up with any team. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: Lack of power. The Guardians have the fewest home runs of the playoff teams and you win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. Don’t buy that? In last year’s postseason, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2-10 — that’s 25 wins, two losses and 10 games where the teams hit the same number. No, the Royals didn’t hit a lot of home runs in 2014 or 2015, but they did hit them in the playoffs (and that was an era with fewer home runs in general). It certainly would be fun to see the Guardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they’ll have to power up. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The only American League team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was the Guardians — by a pretty sizable margin. Cleveland also stole the third-most bases in the majors and led the sport in going first to third on a single. Putting the ball in play and running the bases both effectively and aggressively is the Guardians’ recipe for success in October, not just against the Astros but against everyone. The Astros are the second-best defensive team in the postseason field, according to outs above average. But Martin Maldonado was below league average in caught-stealing percentage this season. The Guardians need to get on base and they need to run — and just hope the series doesn’t turn into a slugfest. — Gonzalez
No. 4 seed | 92-70 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Mariners (57.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.7% | Caesars odds: +1800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 16
How they could stay around longer: The offense goes off. The Blue Jays haven’t produced quite the same gaudy offensive numbers as they did in 2021, but that’s because offense is down across the league. When this offense is clicking it’s still as good as any in the game, with a mix of power and high-average hitters. A big key down the stretch was Bo Bichette, who hit .403 in September. Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are two of the better contact hitters in the game (and Vladdy obviously provides upper-deck power as well). And don’t forget that George Springer has been a great postseason performer in his career, hitting .269/.349/.546 with 19 home runs in 63 games. — Schoenfield
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The bullpen. Jordan Romano has been pretty good as the closer, although not exactly lights out with six blown saves (he did finish strong with 19 scoreless appearances in his final 20 outings). It’s getting to Romano that has been a little tricky. The bullpen was 16th in the majors in FanGraphs WAR, but ahead of only St. Louis and Milwaukee among playoff teams. Thanks to Romano, they were a little better in win probability added, but the lack of depth is an issue and, really, more than any of the other playoff teams, the Jays will need their starters to pitch deeper into games. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Blue Jays’ three best starters pitched well against the Astros this season, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios combining to give up just five runs — and walk two batters — in 18⅔ innings over the course of three starts, all victories. None of those outings occurred beyond May 1, but it’s a positive sign nonetheless. The key here is Berrios, who has struggled mightily ever since. If he can get on track and be the elite starter the Blue Jays expect him to be, they’ll have a chance. The Blue Jays can hang with the Astros offensively. But they’ll probably need three bona fide, top-of-the-rotation arms to shut them down, not two. — Gonzalez
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 99-63 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Rays/Guardians (63.4% chance vs. TB, 64% vs. CLE)
World Series odds: 15.5% | Caesars odds: +500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 25
How they could stay around longer: Maybe it’s unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole’s performance, especially since Frankie Montas wasn’t the big rotation addition the Yankees expected. When Cole bombed out early in the wild-card game against the Red Sox last season, the Yankees went home. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but he also led the American League with 32 home runs allowed — 16 of them off his four-seam fastball. Cole was especially homer-prone in September with nine in 30 innings and in his four career postseason starts with the Yankees he has allowed six in just 20⅓ innings. He has to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: Opponents pitch around Aaron Judge and the rest of the lineup fails to knock him in. When the Yankees struggled with a 10-18 record in August, they averaged just 3.61 runs per game — even as Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs. But as he continued mashing throughout the season, teams started walking him more often: 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees led the AL in runs, but they can’t expect one man to carry them for an entire postseason. It’s worth noting that in seven games against the Astros they hit just .151. — Schoenfield
One thing they do that could take down the Astros: The Astros famously got the best of the Yankees during the regular season, winning five of seven. The encouraging news if you’re a Yankees fan: All seven games were decided by three runs or fewer. The not-so-encouraging news: The Yankees didn’t throw a single pitch with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies followed by walk-off hits from Judge. But the Astros were one of few teams that were actually able to keep Judge mostly in check, holding him to a .148/.258/.370 slash line. Needless to say, Judge’s bat needs to come alive in this potential heavyweight matchup. And the Yankees will have to play a clean, mistake-free brand of baseball. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 106-56 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Mariners/Blue Jays (64% chance vs. SEA, 62.7% vs. TOR)
World Series odds: 18.0% | Caesars odds: +380
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the AL’s team to beat: Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veteran holdovers from the 2017 World Series champions who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. Altuve quietly had one of his best seasons, with an OPS+ that matched his MVP season in 2017. Bregman, meanwhile, had a big second half, the best he’s hit since 2019. Altuve has been outstanding in his postseason career (.286/.361/.567, 23 home runs in 79 games) while Bregman less so (.226/.339/.400, 12 home runs in 73 games), but if they’re getting on base in front of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, good things can happen. — Schoenfield
What could send them home early: The bottom of the lineup fails to contribute. The Astros don’t get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez (who hasn’t homered for Houston since coming over from Boston at the trade deadline). Yuli Gurriel had a rough season. Trey Mancini, the other trade acquisition, has hit under .200 for the Astros. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has seen his numbers drop in the second half. This lineup simply lacks the depth of some other Houston teams of recent vintage. If the big four don’t click, it could be a quick exit — no matter how dominant Justin Verlander and the rest of the rotation is. — Schoenfield
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: Most of the Dodgers’ postseason pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson will make up three-fourths of their postseason rotation. What do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. And the Astros — with a right-handed-heavy lineup headlined by Bregman and Altuve — feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Their best hitter, the left-handed-hitting Alvarez, was elite against lefties, too. In a matchup of two teams that are pretty closely matched, it could make the difference. If the Astros can make a habit out of scoring early, they could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers — and their first without a cheating scandal. — Gonzalez
National League
Most likely to go home this weekend …
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | NL third wild card
Wild-card opponent: Cardinals (39.7% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.9% | Caesars odds: +3500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: The bullpen falls into place. Philadelphia has a 5.04 bullpen ERA since the beginning of September, a big contributor to Philly’s near-collapse down the stretch. Injuries have included Corey Knebel (done for the season) and Brad Hand (question mark for the playoffs). David Robertson will be a part of the high-leverage mix. Other solutions have emerged: converted starter Zach Eflin has flourished out of the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado has been as hot as any reliever. Struggling Seranthony Dominguez regaining the dominant form he flashed before an August injury might be enough to push the Phillies over the hump. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Cardinals’ staff keeps the Phillies in the yard. St. Louis is a low-strikeout pitching staff by contemporary standards. But Busch Stadium is stingy with homers and even on the road, the Cardinals don’t yield a high homer rate. Also, those contact-heavy pitchers are backed by baseball’s best defense. The Phillies own MLB’s third-highest homer rate and while they aren’t the most longball-dependent offense in the postseason, they aren’t far off. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins & Co. need to combine for two or three bombs per game or the Phillies will have a hard time turning the scoreboard. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The 2019 Washington Nationals proved you don’t need to be incredibly deep or even well-rounded to defeat the Dodgers in a short series. Sometimes, if the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to perform to their capabilities. Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS in 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 17⅔ innings. In those four — and catcher J.T. Realmuto — the Phillies boast upper-echelon talent. They’ll need them to do most of the heavy lifting to defeat L.A. — Gonzalez
No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL second wild card
Wild-card opponent: Mets (36.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.3% | Caesars odds: +2800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
How they could stay around longer: Juan Soto goes off. Soto went into a funk not long after the monumental midseason trade that sent him to San Diego. While his overall San Diego numbers are down even from his subpar pre-trade numbers in Washington, Soto has quietly been trending up over the past couple of weeks. And let’s not forget that when the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, Soto’s huge postseason as a 20-year-old had a lot to do with it. All the hand-wringing over Soto’s post-trade play would be forgotten if he has a big October. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: The Padres’ rotation, especially Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, carried them into the playoffs down the stretch. That success needs to continue, but it wouldn’t have mattered had closer Josh Hader not straightened himself out. After a catastrophic start to his Padres career, Hader finished strong — making his midseason slump all the more bewildering. What happens if the bizarro Hader returns? San Diego will be done, that’s what will happen. Sure, you can say the same thing about every team that leans on a primary closer — but not every team saw its relief ace pitch like Hader did in August. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Padres struggled mightily against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and getting outscored by a combined 62 runs. To beat L.A., they’ll need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn’t pitch against the Dodgers at all. They’ll need Soto and Manny Machado to be at their best. They’ll need Hader to be the lockdown closer they thought they were getting at the start of August. And they’ll need contributions from several others. Most of all, perhaps, they’ll need to summon some confidence. — Gonzalez
2:59
Tim Kurkjian and Eduardo Perrez preview all of the postseason Wild Card matchups.
They should be around next week, but after that …
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Phillies (60.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.1% | Caesars odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: Stars of the past and stars of the present. Few players have had as many big October moments as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. This is their last shot at it and after what we’ve seen Pujols do since the All-Star break, the next chapter in this fairy tale would be a stirring playoff run. But for all the attention Pujols has rightly deserved, the Cardinals have featured a pair of NL MVP candidates in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Offense is hard to come by in the playoffs and one or two hot players can carry a team. If Arenado and Goldschmidt go off, it might not even matter what Pujols and Molina do. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: Picking the wrong playoff rotation. Ollie Marmol and his staff have tended to push the right buttons during their first go-around running the Redbirds, but piecing together a playoff rotation will be tough. St. Louis deepened its rotation with the midseason acquisitions of Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, while Jack Flaherty has been trending up. Adam Wainwright has been struggling but he’s Adam Wainwright. Then you’ve got Miles Mikolas, the club’s most consistent regular-season performer. St. Louis has at least five decent options but differentiating among them for the best possible matchups in a short series is quite a puzzle. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Dodgers are the kings of velocity. Their offense was by far the most productive in the sport against 95-plus mph fastballs this season. But that is not how this Cardinals rotation profiles. Wainwright relies mostly on a big curveball and throws his fastballs in the 80s. Montgomery relies heavily on curveballs and changeups. The same can be said for Quintana, whose fastball hardly ventures beyond the low 90s. Flaherty and Mikolas throw harder, but not by a whole lot. These are the types of arms that might stand the best chance of keeping the Dodgers’ hitters off balance. — Gonzalez
No. 4 seed | 101-61 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Padres (63.6% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 5.4% | Caesars odds: +800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 15
How they could stay around longer: Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer return to peak form in both excellence and duration. That is to say, any game in which deGrom and Scherzer are able to dominate into the late innings and come close to handing the ball straight to dominant closer Edwin Diaz is a game that the Mets will be heavily favored to win — no matter who the opponent is. Scherzer has been Scherzer for most of the season but hasn’t often gone past the sixth inning of late. DeGrom enters the playoffs in a rough stretch by his standards. But if they go to another level when the October lights shine, would anyone be surprised? — Doolittle
What could send them home early: A Pete Alonso/Francisco Lindor power outage. The Mets built a potent offense all season with a balance of skill sets. They are the least homer-reliant club in the NL bracket. This is a good thing but base hits become harder to string together during the playoffs. The most consistent sources of power have been Alonso and Lindor. It’s not all about homers, but also plugging the gaps with runners on base: The pair have combined to drive in nearly a third of the runs the Mets have scored. New York can’t afford for them to go cold at the same time. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Mets are imperfect, but they possess what might be the best formula to take down the Dodgers — pitchers who can single-handedly dominate an entire series. Scherzer and deGrom can do that out of the rotation, and Diaz can do that out of the bullpen. It’ll require Scherzer to pitch on short rest — perhaps deGrom as well, though that is unlikely given his injury history and lingering free agency — and Diaz to contribute more than three outs. It won’t be easy, but no one said it would be. — Gonzalez
1:44
Eduardo Perrez and Tim Kurkjian talk about the New York Mets and their chances to advance this postseason.
Better pack for the whole month
No. 2 seed | 101-61 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Phillies/Cardinals (61.5% chance vs. PHI, 55.8% vs. STL)
World Series odds: 12.5% | Caesars odds: +600
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 24
How they could stay around longer: If the bullpen falls into place like it did last October, look out. The Braves’ are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn’t need to lean quite as heavily on his fireman as he did en route to the 2021 title. But even if he does, the Atlanta bullpen as a group has been smoking hot of late — led by trade acquisition Raisel Iglesias, who has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves. Kenley Jansen has been very good, as have Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. If Tyler Matzek can find last season’s consistency, there might not be a bad lever for Snitker to pull. — Doolittle
What could send them home before you finish reading this: A couple of lifeless cutters in the wrong situation by Jansen. This isn’t to pick on Jansen. He’s had an excellent first season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a pretty good roll entering the playoffs. But he still isn’t the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn’t much else that might be a glaring issue. — Doolittle
One thing they do that could take down the Dodgers: The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS, splitting the two series, and they seem poised square off again. Outside of the Astros, the Braves might be the closest to matching the Dodgers’ depth and balance. Their separator could be in the bullpen. The three guys who entered this season as the Dodgers’ most important back-end relievers are either lost for the year (Daniel Hudson), pitching in low-leverage situations because of ineffectiveness (Craig Kimbrel) or recovering from injury (Blake Treinen). The Braves are as deep as ever in the back end of their bullpen, and this is a clear advantage for them. — Gonzalez
Most likely to be playing in November
No. 1 seed | 111-51 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Padres/Mets (75.2% chance vs. SD, 65.4% vs. NYM)
World Series odds: 30.6% | Caesars odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
Why they are the team to beat in all of MLB: During the regular season, depth is what jumps to mind. L.A. has a roster and system of processes with so much quality redundancy built in that it’s hard to remember a time when we didn’t simply pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before a season began. Depth isn’t irrelevant in the playoffs, but it’s clearly not as big a factor with the possible exception of the back of the bullpen. The thing is, the Dodgers aren’t just about depth. They are about all of the things, and a team with star power like this has a talent edge on everyone. And, oh yeah, they just won 110** games with the run differential that suggests they were actually a little unlucky. — Doolittle
What could send them home early: The term “Achilles’ heel” has become such a sports cliche. If the Dodgers falter, maybe we’ll have to update it to “L.A. closer.” Like in the NFL, you might say, “They have an airtight defense but their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner.” The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors all season and have such a depth of impact talent in the organization that it’s dizzying. And yet they enter the playoffs with an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It’s hard to fathom. — Doolittle
Their biggest advantage if MLB’s two best teams meet in November: First, a tangible one: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ dynamic top-of-the-lineup trio is what separates them from everyone, even the most elite. No team can boast the combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and baserunning that those three possess in abundance. –
Now, an intangible one: Revenge. Betts, Turner and Freeman were not with the Dodgers when they lost the 2017 World Series to an Astros team that was later found to have illegally stolen signs. But a few others — Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and Austin Barnes — were. And beating the Astros on this stage would qualify as the ultimate payback, no matter how much these rosters have changed over the last five years. — Gonzalez
It’s win-or-go-home Thursday in the MLB wild-card round!
After losing their series openers, the Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees all rebounded with Game 2 wins on Wednesday — setting up a dramatic day with three winner-take-all Game 3s. It’s only the second time in baseball history to host three winner-takes-all playoff games in one day.
Who has the edge with division series berths on the line? We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups, sights and sounds from the ballparks and postgame takeaways as each matchup ends.
Key links: Megapreview | Passan’s take | Bracket | Schedule
Jump to a matchup:
DET-CLE | SD-CHC | BOS-NYY
3 p.m. ET on ESPN
Game 3 starters: Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi
One thing that will decide Game 3: Perhaps it’s a wide brush, but Detroit’s ability to get the ball in play and convert scoring opportunities into actual runs — or not — is likely to decide Thursday’s game. The Tigers have managed to get quality at-bats early in innings and generate plenty of traffic on the bags, but they’ve been completely unable to turn those scoring chances into runs. Their 15 runners left on base in Game 2 was a record for a franchise whose postseason history dates back to 1907. Over three potential elimination games going back to last year’s ALDS matchup, the Tigers are a combined 3-for-38 (.079) with runners in scoring position. That must change or Detroit will be done. — Bradford Doolittle
Lineups
Tigers
TBD
Guardians
TBD
5 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 3 starters: Yu Darvish vs. Jameson Taillon
One thing that will decide Game 3: Look, this is going to be a battle of the bullpens. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are both going to be on a very quick hook, even if they’re pitching well. But the difference might be which of those starters can get 14 or 15 outs instead of 10 or 11, especially for the Padres given that Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller both pitched in Games 1 and 2 and might have limited availability.
Darvish had a reputation early in his career as someone who couldn’t handle the pressure of a big game, but he has turned that around and has a 2.56 ERA in his six postseason starts with the Padres. Taillon, meanwhile, was terrific down the stretch with the Cubs, with a 1.57 ERA in six starts after coming off the IL in August. This looks like another low-scoring game in which the team that hits a home run will have the edge. — Schoenfield
Lineups
Padres
TBD
Cubs
TBD
8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Game 3 starters: Connelly Early vs. Cam Schlittler
One thing that will decide Game 3: Whether Connelly Early can give the Red Sox some length. Alex Cora’s aggressive decision to pull the plug on Brayan Bello’s start after just 28 pitches in Game 2 led to him using six Red Sox relievers. Garrett Whitlock, Boston’s best reliever not named Aroldis Chapman, threw 48 pitches. Chapman didn’t enter the game but warmed up for the possibility. Left-hander Kyle Harrison, a starter during the regular season, and right-hander Greg Weissert were the only pitchers in Boston’s bullpen not used in the first two games. Early doesn’t need to last seven innings. Harrison, who hasn’t pitched since last Friday, could cover multiple innings. But a quick departure would make the night very difficult for the Red Sox’s bullpen against a potent Yankees lineup. — Jorge Castillo
Lineups
Red Sox
TBD
Yankees
TBD
-
Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — Back in the starting lineup one night after he was benched for matchup purposes, Jazz Chisholm Jr. put together a season-saving performance for the New York Yankees on Wednesday night with dynamic displays of athleticism on both sides of the ball that fueled a 4-3 win over the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series.
Chisholm made a crucial run-saving play with his glove in the seventh inning and hustled all the way from first base on Austin Wells‘ single to score the tiebreaking run in the eighth inning to help the Red Sox force a decisive Game 3 on Thursday.
It will be the fourth winner-take-all postseason game between the Yankees and Red Sox, and the first since the 2021 AL wild card, a one-game format won by Boston.
“Anything to help us win,” Chisholm said. “All that was clear before I came to the field today. After I left the field yesterday, it is win the next game. It is win or go home for us. It is all about winning.”
A mainstay in the lineup all season at second base, Chisholm was left off their starting nine in Game 1 against left-hander Garrett Crochet before entering the loss late as a defensive replacement.
Afterward, Chisholm took questions about manager Aaron Boone’s decision to bench him with his back turned to reporters. It was a poor attempt to conceal his disdain, one that Boone was asked about before Wednesday’s do-or-die Game 2.
“Wasn’t necessarily how I [would’ve] handled it, but I don’t need him to put a happy face on,” Boone said before the game. “I need him to go out and play his butt off for us tonight. That’s what I expect to happen.”
What happened was a clutch effort that kept the Yankees’ season alive.
In the seventh inning, with the score tied and runners on first and second for the Red Sox, Masataka Yoshida hit a ground ball to Chisholm’s right side off Yankees reliever Fernando Cruz that appeared headed to right field to give Boston the lead. Instead, Chisholm made a diving stop. His throw to first base was late and bounced away from first baseman Ben Rice, but Red Sox third base coach Kyle Hudson held Nate Eaton and Chisholm’s effort prevented the run from scoring.
“That was the game right there,” Cruz said. “I think that was the play of the game. There’s some stuff that goes unnoticed sometimes, but I want to make sure it’s mentioned. Jazz saved us the game. Completely.”
An inning later, after Cruz escaped the bases-loaded jam and erupted with a rousing display of emotions, Chisholm worked a seven-pitch, two-out walk against Garrett Whitlock. The plate appearance changed the game.
Wells followed by getting to another full count to give Chisholm the green light at first base. With Chisholm running on the pitch, Wells lined a changeup from Whitlock that landed just inside the right-field line. Chisholm, boosted with his running start, darted around the bases to score with a headfirst slide, just beating the throw to incite a previously anxious crowd.
“Any ball that an outfielder moves to his left or right, I have to score, in my head,” Chisholm said. “That’s all I was thinking.”
The Yankees’ first two runs required less exertion. Ben Rice, another left-handed hitter not included in the starting lineup in Game 1, crushed the first pitch he saw in his postseason debut for a two-run home run off Brayan Bello in the first inning.
The Red Sox matched the blast with a two-run single from Trevor Story in the third inning before manager Alex Cora made a surprising decision in the bottom half of the frame to pull Bello with one out after throwing just 28 pitches. To win, Boston’s bullpen would need to cover at least 20 outs. The aggressive tactic proved effective until Whitlock, the fifth reliever Cora summoned, surrendered Wells’ single on his season-high 48th and final pitch, unleashing Chisholm around the bases.
“What do you expect?” Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge said. “He’s a game changer. But it just shows you the maturity of not taking what happened before and bringing it into today’s game. He showed up ready to play today and ended up having the plays for us throughout the night.”
With a win Thursday, the Yankees could become the first team to take a wild-card series after losing Game 1 since the best-of-three format was implemented for the 2022 season. The Toronto Blue Jays, the AL’s top seed, await in the Division Series. Game 1 is scheduled for Saturday.
If the Yankees get there, they could have a video game to thank. Chisholm credited a late-night video game session after Game 1 in helping turn the page from his disappointment. Playing “MLB The Show” as the New York Aliens — a team he created that features himself, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jimmy Rollins — he drubbed an online opponent by a score of 12-1 and reported for work on Wednesday ready.
“I mercy-ruled someone,” Chisholm said. “That’s how I get my stress off.”
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Alden Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers felt they addressed any concerns about the state of their team over the final three weeks of the regular season, reeling off 15 wins in 20 games. But in case there was any doubt, they displayed their full might in two wild-card matchups against the Cincinnati Reds, the last of which, an 8-4 victory Wednesday night, advanced them into the National League Division Series.
Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, half of a four-man rotation the Dodgers will ride in their pursuit of another title, combined to give up two earned runs in 13⅔ innings. Ten batters, meanwhile, accumulated 28 hits, 15 of which came courtesy of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, the top half of what is still widely considered the sport’s deepest lineup. In the end, even a weary bullpen — a hindrance throughout the summer and a potential obstacle in the fall — received a much-needed boost.
Roki Sasaki, the prized rookie Japanese starting pitcher who became a reliever after finally recapturing his velocity last month, checked in for the top of the ninth inning and flummoxed the Reds with triple-digit fastballs and mind-bending splitters.
In the dugout, teammates howled.
Later, in the midst of a champagne-soaked celebration, many of them were still in awe.
“That guy is gross,” Dodgers reliever Tanner Scott said.
“Wow,” third baseman Max Muncy added. “All I can say is wow.”
The Dodgers, forced to play in the best-of-three wild-card series for the first time, have advanced to the division series for the 13th consecutive year, tied with the 1995-2007 New York Yankees for the longest streak since the round was introduced. They will now travel to face the Philadelphia Phillies, who beat them in two of three games at Dodger Stadium in the middle of September.
Taking the ball in Game 1 on Saturday, with game time still undetermined, will be Ohtani.
“I know that Sho will revel being in that environment and pitching in Game 1,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “I think we have a really talented rotation. I think it’s going to be a strength for us if we go forward.”
It was obvious Tuesday, when Snell varied the velocity on his changeups while allowing two baserunners through the first six innings. And it was obvious Wednesday, when Yamamoto pitched into the seventh inning without giving up an earned run.
The Reds took an early 2-0 lead when Hernandez dropped a fly ball with two outs in the first and 21-year-old rookie Sal Stewart followed with a two-run single. From there, Yamamoto retired 13 consecutive batters, five via strikeout. The Reds loaded the bases against him with no outs in the sixth while trailing by a run, but Yamamoto somehow wiggled free, getting Austin Hays to ground into a force at home and striking out Stewart and Elly De La Cruz, both on curveballs.
Twenty-two months ago, the Dodgers lavished Yamamoto with the largest contract ever awarded to a starting pitcher. He languished through most of the 2024 regular season, finally rounded into form in the playoffs and followed by putting together a Cy Young-caliber season in 2025. Over his last five regular-season starts, he gave up three runs in 34 innings. That dominance has carried over into October.
“He’s shown why he got the contract that he got,” Muncy said. “It’s really impressive to be behind him. You feed off it.”
The Dodgers offense took off for four runs immediately after Yamamoto stranded the bases loaded, stringing together four hits and cycling through 10 hitters. Just like in Game 1, it seemed as if the team would cruise to victory. And just like in Game 1, the bullpen made it far more interesting than it should have been.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts sent Yamamoto back out for the seventh and watched him throw a career-high 113 pitches in hopes of putting less of a burden on his relievers. It bought him two extra outs before Roberts turned to Blake Treinen to end the inning.
But the eighth was once again a struggle. Twenty-four hours after watching the Reds score three runs off Alex Vesia, Edgardo Henriquez and Jack Dreyer in Tuesday’s eighth inning, Roberts turned to Emmet Sheehan, the young starting pitcher who has made a case as the Dodgers’ best bullpen weapon in these playoffs, and hoped for a smoother ride.
Sheehan allowed the first four batters to reach. He gave up a sacrifice fly to Tyler Stephenson then got ahead in the count 0-2 against Will Benson and threw a slider that nearly hit him.
Roberts had seen enough. With two on, one out, the count 1-2 and two runs already across, he approached the mound, shared a word with Sheehan then called on Vesia. Sheehan became the first pitcher to be pulled from a postseason game in the middle of an at-bat with two strikes since Game 5 of the 2021 NL Championship Series, when Roberts replaced an injured Joe Kelly with Evan Phillips.
“I trust him,” Roberts said of Sheehan. “It was his first real crack at kind of late leverage. He wasn’t sharp, but I believe in him.”
Vesia, a left-hander, struck out right-handed pinch hitter Miguel Andujar with a first-pitch fastball then walked Matt McLain and retired TJ Friedl with a slider low and away to end the threat. An inning later, Sasaki came out of the bullpen, befuddled the Reds’ hitters, recorded three quick outs and, depending on what happens in the ensuing weeks, might have changed the complexion of the pitching staff.
A month ago, the Dodgers were languishing. Their offense was inconsistent, their rotation was only beginning to round into form, and their bullpen was a mess.
Now, it seems, they’re bullish.
“I think we can win it all,” Roberts said when asked how far he believes his team can go. “I think we’re equipped to do that. We certainly have the pedigree. We certainly have the hunger. We’re playing great baseball. And in all honesty, I don’t care who we play. I just want to be the last team standing.”
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