2022 MLB playoffs: Our predictions from the wild-card games through the World Series
The 2022 MLB playoffs begin Friday afternoon, debuting a new format with 12 teams hoping to raise this year’s World Series trophy.
The Dodgers — who enter October with MLB’s best record and a franchise record number of wins — look to add another title to prove their 2020 championship was no fluke. Meanwhile, the Braves have hopes of becoming baseball’s first repeat champions since the Yankees won three straight from 1998 to 2000. The Yankees, on the other hand, will try to return to their early-season form and make a run at the Fall Classic from the No. 2 seed in the American League.
Who will win each round? And which squad will be the last standing at the end of the postseason? We asked more than 30 of our MLB experts — from ESPN.com, TV, Stats & Information and more — to give us their predictions.
Below are their picks for wild-card winners (two teams will make it out of each league), division series winners, league championship series winners and World Series champion.
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American League Wild Card Series
ALWC: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 19
Tampa Bay Rays 12
While the Guardians are the favorite, you picked the Rays. How do they come out of wild-card weekend triumphant? The Rays might be the best organization at perennially outpunching its weight in terms of regular-season record and playoff runs, with execs spread all over the league to prove I’m not the only one who believes this. I normally give then the benefit of the doubt in a toss-up, but I think the Rays are a better team because of the superior depth of their rotation and lineup. That said, I see these risks in this pick: Guardians relievers James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase scare me if the Rays fall behind, and Rays ace Shane McClanahan hasn’t been that great of late. — Kiley McDaniel
ALWC: Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 18
Seattle Mariners 13
Our voters are almost split between the Mariners and Blue Jays. Why do you think Toronto will prevail? The Mariners-Blue Jays series is a jump ball. I’ll take the Blue Jays partly because they are at home. Rogers Centre is a loud place. “It will be crazy,” Blue Jays center fielder George Springer said. Only the Yankees scored more runs in the American League this year than the Jays. They are swinging it really well these days, especially Bo Bichette, who had 48 hits in September. Plus, the Jays have Alek Manoah going in Game 1. He has been one of the best pitchers in the league, totally fearless, totally oblivious to the pressure. The Mariners are really good, have won seven of 10 and can win this series, but home-field advantage means the Jays win in three. — Tim Kurkjian
National League Wild Card Series
NLWC: Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 19
Philadelphia Phillies 12
A fair number of our voters went with the Phillies. Why did you choose the Cardinals? In a short series, I’m going to trust their defense — especially in a park as spacious as Busch Stadium — and the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Albert Pujols to do what’s necessary to advance. The Phillies certainly seem to have a major advantage with their starting pitching, but I think the Cardinals have it, perhaps to a lesser extent, in the bullpen. And I think having all three games at home will be a major advantage. — Alden Gonzalez
NLWC: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
New York Mets 27
San Diego Padres 4
Why do you think San Diego can pull of the wild-card upset against the 100-plus-win Mets? When it comes to the Mets, the conversation rightfully almost always starts with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. But when the Mets were really rolling this year, it seemed Starling Marte was in the middle of everything good going on in their lineup. Now that there is a very real chance New York will have to start the postseason without their dynamic outfielder — and that could be enough of a difference to tip the scales in a best-of-three series. On the other hand, if the Mets do get through the opening weekend and Marte comes back playing like the star he is at any point this month, this is a Mets team that could still make a lot of noise this October. — Dan Mullen
American League Division Series
ALDS: Winner of Rays-Guardians vs. New York Yankees
New York Yankees 21
Cleveland Guardians 9
Tampa Bay Rays 1
A majority of our voters picked the Yankees. Why do you think the Guardians can win? There’s no doubt it would be an upset for the $68 million Guardians to knock off the $246 million Yankees. But upsets happen in October, and I like the way Cleveland’s pitching staff stacks up against the Yankees. Since around the first week of August, this has been arguably the best staff in baseball. Both the rotation and the bullpen have contributed to that, but the relievers in particular have gone to another level.
The Yankees have the firepower to simply club the Guardians into submission. But if games stay tight and terse into the late innings, the pendulum swings in the direction of Cleveland. You might think the Guardians’ AL Central-heavy schedule accounts for some of their lofty numbers. But here’s a stat: After the All-Star break, if you remove games against any AL Central team from the numbers, only the Dodgers and Astros had a better team ERA than Cleveland, and the Guardians were just a tick behind the Astros for No. 2. — Bradford Doolittle
ALDS: Winner of Mariners-Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Houston Astros 28
Seattle Mariners 2
Toronto Blue Jays 1
What makes the Astros the overwhelming favorite? These Astros are a little different from recent Houston powerhouses in terms of lineup depth and the dynamism of an offense that is still very good. But what really sets this version of Houston apart is the depth and versatility of a pitching staff ideally situated for the October tournament. The Astros have a classic big rotation three in Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. They have excellent options when a fourth starter is needed in Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier.
Houston also has a quality group in the bullpen, including Ryan Pressly, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero, Will Smith and Bryan Abreu. Then they have the added layer of being able to use Urquidy, Garcia and, especially, Javier to fill in the gaps between as elite bridge guys. On top of all that, rookie Hunter Brown lurks as a huge possible X factor as a multi-inning bullpen option if they can make room for him on the playoff roster. It’s going to be hard to score on this group, especially as it’s backed by terrific defense. And with all that depth, no one has to be overworked during an unusually compressed playoff schedule. — Doolittle
National League Division Series
NLDS: Winner of Phillies-Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 26
St. Louis Cardinals 4
Philadelphia Phillies 1
What makes the Braves the favorite here? As much as I would like to see the Phillies extend their season, the Braves are simply too strong. Frankly, they might be the favorite regardless of foe, including the Dodgers and Astros. The Phillies have two starting pitchers and a questionable bullpen. The Braves have no such concerns. — Eric Karabell
NLDS: Winner of Padres-Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 27
New York Mets 4
How can the Mets upset the Dodgers to advance? Short playoff series aren’t about depth — they’re about starting pitching, offensive heroes and bullpens. The Mets have just enough of all three to beat the Dodgers, in a short series. The Dodgers’ depth simply doesn’t come into play like it did over 162. This is no sure thing — nothing in the playoffs is — but the Mets have the right combination of players to pull off the upset. — Jesse Rogers
American League Championship Series
Houston Astros 25
Seattle Mariners 2
New York Yankees 3
Toronto Blue Jays 1
Houston is the overwhelming favorite here. How can the Yankees pull this off? The Yankees picked things back up after a weak August and should be getting key players back on the roster, such as Matt Carpenter, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta. This is an experienced team that has a lot of depth on both offense and the pitching staff. If the lineup can get hot like it did in the first half, this will be a tough team to stop, regardless of how up and down the second half of the season was. I try not to factor in regular-season success too much into postseason predictions because, as the Braves proved last year, it’s often about hitting your stride at the right time. The Yankees have all the pieces to do just that. — Joon Lee
National League Championship Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 15
Atlanta Braves 13
St. Louis Cardinals 2
New York Mets 1
Why did you pick the Braves to win the NLCS over the Dodgers? Choosing against a 111-win juggernaut that scored the most runs in baseball and allowed the fewest would seem to be a galaxy-brained maneuver, and perhaps it will be. But consider: Over the final 112 games of the season, the Dodgers went 78-34. And over the final 112 games of the season, the Braves went … 78-34. Los Angeles outscored opponents 573-351. Atlanta outscored opponents … 582-386. These are incredibly evenly matched teams, each with a dynamic, star-filled offense, ample starting-pitching options and solid defense.
The Braves, however, separate themselves in a vital area for playoff baseball: the bullpen. Yes, the Dodgers have the best relief ERA in the National League at 2.87 and a cornucopia of options from both sides: right-handers Evan Phillips, Chris Martin, Yency Almonte, Brusdar Graterol and Tommy Kahnle, left-handers Alex Vesia and David Price – all of whom theoretically could close in lieu of the deposed-but-still-around Craig Kimbrel. And if Dustin May and especially Blake Treinen return from injuries, they could be game-changers. But Atlanta’s array of relief options – closer Kenley Jansen, longtime-closer-elsewhere Raisel Iglesias, right-hander Collin McHugh, left-handers A.J. Minter, Dylan Lee and Tyler Matzek – are all, with the exception of Lee, proven veterans or playoff-tested. This is the sort of series that could come down to one inning a game, a true toss-up between two truly elite teams. There is bound to be a loser if they face off, but really we’re all winners for the possibility. — Jeff Passan
World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 12
(Joon Lee, Brianna Williams, Tim Kurkjian, Ben Ward, Kyle Peterson, David Schoenfield, Dan Mullen, Bradford Doolittle, Alex Rodriguez, Enrique Rojas, Matt Marrone, Joe DeMartino)
Atlanta Braves 10
(Eduardo Perez, Phil Orlins, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Gregg Colli, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney, Clinton Yates, Rachel Ullrich)
Houston Astros 8
(Eric Karabell, Michael Kay, Jesse Rogers, Kiley McDaniel, Alden Gonzalez, Liz Finny, Tim Keown, David Flemming)
New York Yankees 1
(Jeremy Willis)
The Dodgers were our most popular pick. Why did you go with Los Angeles here? I’m actually a little surprised the Dodgers were the most popular pick because it seems like everyone has been trying to find reasons to pick against them. Foremost: the bullpen and the lack of a defined closer. Well, the Dodgers finished with the second-best bullpen ERA in the majors (2.87). Also: Cody Bellinger didn’t have a good season, and Joey Gallo hit .162 with the Dodgers. Well, the Dodgers scored the most runs in the majors. And: Walker Buehler is injured, and Tony Gonsolin has pitched just two innings since August. They still have Julio Urias (2.16 ERA), Clayton Kershaw (2.28 ERA) and Tyler Anderson (2.57 ERA). They outscored their opponents by a whopping 334 runs — the highest differential since the 1939 Yankees. I’m not going to overthink this: The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. — Schoenfield
A Braves repeat was right behind the Dodgers. Why do you think they’ll pull it off? Because home runs are baseball’s most valuable currency, and the Braves have that market cornered. Since June 1, they own the best record in MLB (78-34) behind a plus-72 home run differential (highest in majors). Teams are 156-26 (.857 win percentage) in the postseason when outhomering their opponent since 2016. — Hembekides
I consider the Braves the most well-rounded team, especially on the pitching side, where their relief depth should provide a substantial advantage in a postseason short on rest days. The two biggest threats to them in my estimation, the Dodgers and Mets, have dealt with rotation injuries, a shaky ninth-inning picture (Dodgers) and the extra round throwing their rotation out of whack due to losing the division (Mets). The Braves seem better set up to withstand the 12-games-across-15-days whirlwind that is the division and championship rounds, and they’ll be the ones with the extra rest heading into the World Series. No one is set up better to mix and match on the pitching side. — Cockcroft
Make your case for why you think the Astros will win: Houston can win in so many different ways. That will come in handy over the course of three rounds of the postseason. The Astros are balanced and have experienced pitching and a solid bullpen. And unlike a year ago, they have Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers healthy for a full postseason. Ranking fourth in home runs while striking out the second fewest times in MLB says it all about the Astros’ offense. It’s loaded. They’re just better than everyone. Sometimes it’s that simple. — Rogers
CLEVELAND — A full-fledged meet and greet was the first order of business for the Minnesota Twins upon their arrival at the ballpark Friday.
Making nine trades and jettisoning nearly 40% of their team before the deadline the previous day meant there were plenty of new faces in the visiting clubhouse when the Twins began their three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians.
Minnesota traded players including standout shortstop Carlos Correa, closer Jhoan Duran and four high-leverage relievers several years away from free agency, among them St. Paul native Louis Varland.
“It’s a hard pill to swallow, but maybe a reset was needed,” catcher Ryan Jeffers said. “We were curious to see how far the front office would go, and they decided to go really far.
“The dominos just kept falling. It just kept coming. It felt like it never ended.”
Just two years ago, the Twins won the American League Central title and advanced to the division series. It turned out to be the high point of their post-pandemic era as they missed the playoffs in 2024 and are currently six games out of the final AL wild-card position.
“A lot of guys who were on our ’23 run aren’t here anymore because of the trades, so that hurt,” pitcher Bailey Ober said. “The business side of baseball sometimes shows its ugly face sometimes. It was surreal watching what happened.”
Ober was one of 10 players who spent Thursday together in a room in the team’s downtown Cleveland hotel, keeping track of the leaguewide activity. The upbeat mood changed when several of them received phone calls from Twins president Derek Falvey telling them they were on the move.
Manager Rocco Baldelli and Ober said no one took the news worse than hometown product Varland, an emerging reliever who was under team control through 2030.
“It was hardest on Lou, and I don’t think it’s close,” Baldelli said. “He loves the organization, and he loves being close to his family. Yeah, he took it hard.”
To field a full roster against the Guardians, the Twins recalled six players from Triple-A St. Paul and selected the contracts of two more Saints. Baldelli held a team meeting as soon as everyone arrived at Progressive Field, then spoke individually with many of his remaining veterans.
All-Star center fielder and unquestioned team leader Byron Buxton, who is on the 10-day injured list with left ribcage inflammation, also joined the Twins in Cleveland.
“Just having him here is huge,” outfielder Matt Wallner said. “That gives us some sense of normal.”
Starting pitcher Chris Paddack, one of six impending free agents, was the first to go Monday to the Detroit Tigers.
Duran, who had a 2.47 ERA with 292 strikeouts over 233⅔ innings in four seasons, was dealt Wednesday to the Philadelphia Phillies in the first sign that the Twins were serious about trading veterans. Duran fetched Triple-A starting pitcher Mick Abel and High-A catcher Eduardo Tait.
“It’s hard, but it’s about making sure that you’re constantly trying to find a way to not just sit on your heels, hope that it all goes better and keep your fingers crossed,” Falvey said. “It’s a way to actually go invest in the future of the team, hopefully the short-term and the long-term.”
Outfielder Harrison Bader followed Duran to the Phillies, and reliever Brock Stewart was sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Reliever Danny Coulombe went to the Texas Rangers. First baseman Ty France and Varland were packaged to Toronto for Triple-A outfielder Alan Roden and Triple-A starting pitcher Kendry Rojas.
“I was in uniform, ready to play for the Buffalo Bisons when it happened,” Roden said, chuckling. “It was a pretty normal day until it wasn’t.”
Popular multiposition player Willi Castro went to the Chicago Cubs and reliever Griffin Jax was sent to the Tampa Bay Rays. Then came the headliner. Correa went back to his original team, the Houston Astros, in what amounted to a salary dump while also bringing back High-A starting pitcher Matt Mikulski.
“It was sad that Carlos left,” catcher Christian Vázquez said. “It was a hard day yesterday. We’re like a family in the clubhouse, so it was hard. It was a fun ride with all of them.”
Less than 22 months ago, the Twins were celebrating at a packed Target Field after Duran closed out a two-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the wild-card round for their first playoff series win in 21 years and the end of their record 18-game postseason losing streak.
Since then, they’ve been in ownership-ordered payroll purgatory in light of the hefty hit they took in regional television revenue after the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy that affected several other clubs from midsize and small markets.
Even the most aggressive scenarios the Twins envisioned prior to the deadline didn’t include Correa, who signed the richest contract in club history as a free agent after the 2022 season. But the Astros wanted him back and were willing to eat most of the roughly $103 million remaining on his deal through 2028, and Correa was willing to waive his no-trade clause to return to the team that drafted him. The Twins agreed to cover $33 million, due in four installments each Dec. 15.
Falvey was adamant that the Twins aren’t trying to bottom out with this rebuild as other clubs have done with varying degrees of success. The Twins kept both of their All-Stars: Buxton and starting pitcher Joe Ryan, who had plenty of suitors. They’re still confident in third baseman Royce Lewis, who has followed a series of injuries with inconsistency at the plate this season. Starting pitcher Pablo López, whose shoulder injury preceded a skid in June the Twins never corrected, will be back sooner rather than later.
“We’re here to win, let me be clear,” Baldelli said. “The locker room looks different, the team looks different, the lineup is different, but let’s go to work.”
PHILADELPHIA — Phillies slugger Bryce Harper was ejected in the seventh inning of Friday’s game against Detroit for arguing a called third strike on a check swing.
The Phillies scored three runs in the seventh to tie the score at 3-3 and had two runners on base with two outs when Harper faced Tigers reliever Will Vest.
Harper tried to check his swing on a full-count changeup from Vest, but third-base umpire Vic Carapazza rang up Harper, who ripped his helmet off his head in an outburst and shouted as he waved his arms at Carapazza.
Harper was promptly ejected and kept his helmet with him as he walked into the dugout.
“I left the batter’s box walking toward him, so I think it was warranted,” Harper said.
Harper said after the Phillies beat the Tigers 5-4 that he had yet to see the replay, which seemed to indicate he went around with his swing.
“Can’t get thrown out in that situation, especially with the ninth inning possibly coming around and my at-bat coming up,” Harper said.
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