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It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.

The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.

The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.

Three names emerge in Tory leadership contest – politics latest

Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.

After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.

As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.

How will Tories pick the new PM?

Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak
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Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest

The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.

Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.

How the Tory Party changes its leader

Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.

But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.

The expected timeline of events in electing a new PM

If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.

If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .

Read more:
Resignations, reversals and rebellion – the 44 days of Liz Truss’s premiership
It’s hard to see how new PM will stop the rot – Beth Rigby analysis

Will Johnson derail the smooth transition?

Boris Johnson outside Number 10 on 6 September, the day he handed over power to Liz Truss Pic: AP

Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.

All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.

His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.

But, but, but.

Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.

There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.

Could an unlikely outsider emerge?

Attorney General Suella Braverman during a regional cabinet meeting at Middleport Pottery in Stoke on Trent. Picture date: Thursday May 12, 2022.

If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.

Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.

Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.

Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.

In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.

Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.

MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.

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Funeral delays: Bereaved family faces ‘stressful’ time after eight-week wait

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Funeral delays: Bereaved family faces 'stressful' time after eight-week wait

Changes to how death certificates are issued in England and Wales have made the grieving process more “stressful”, according to bereaved families.

Anne Short died on New Year’s Eve, only a few months after she was diagnosed with cancer.

Her son Elliot, 30, from Newport, South Wales, says the grieving process was made harder after having to wait eight weeks to hold her funeral.

“Quite frankly, it’s ridiculous, when you’re already going through all this pain and suffering as a family,” he told Sky News.

“You can’t move on, you can’t do anything, you can’t arrange anything, you can’t feel that they’re at peace, you can’t put yourself at peace, because of a process that’s been put in that nobody seems to know anything about at the moment.”

That process has been introduced by the government to address “concerns” about how causes of death were previously scrutinised, following high-profile criminal cases such as those of Harold Shipman and Lucy Letby.

Up until last September, causes of death could be signed off by a GP, but now they have to be independently scrutinised by a medical examiner, before a death certificate can be issued.

Anne Short
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Anne Short

‘I felt helpless’

Mr Short said he was ringing “twice a day” for a progress update, but that it was “going through too many sets of hands”.

Until the death certificate was issued, Ms Short’s body could not be released into the care of the funeral director.

“The main stress for me was knowing that she was up there [at the hospital] and I couldn’t move her, so I felt helpless, powerless,” he said.

“I felt like I’d let her down in a lot of ways. I know now, looking back, that there’s nothing that we could have done, but at the time it was adding a lot of stress. I just wanted her out of there.”

Anne Short
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Elliot Short had to wait eight weeks to hold his mother’s funeral

‘Something has to be done’

Mr Short fears there’s a risk the new process might defeat its purpose.

“There’s other people that I know that have lost since, where it’s been in a care home or something like that, where they haven’t been happy with the care they’ve had, but they haven’t raised that because you’re in this bubble of grief and you just want to get it done,” he said.

“Something has to be done about that because I think it just drags on the grief and there’s obviously a danger then of it being against the reasons why they’re trying to do it.”

Arrangements after the death of his father less than two years ago was a “much easier process”, according to Mr Short.

“I lost my father as well 15 months before, so we went through the process prior to this coming in and we had the death certificate, he died at home, but we had it within three days,” he added.

Elliot Short, 30
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Elliot Short

‘State of limbo’

James Tovey is the sixth generation of his family running Tovey Bros, a funeral director in Newport.

He told Sky News that the delays were having a “huge impact” on the business and that the families they serve were being “left in a state of limbo” for weeks after their bereavement.

“I would say that most funerals will take place perhaps two to four weeks after the person’s passed away, whereas now it’s much more like four to six weeks, so it is quite a significant difference,” he said.

“It’s one thing on top of an already distressing time for them and we’re frustrated and upset for [the families] as much as anybody else and it’s just annoying that we can’t do anything about it.”

James Tovey is the sixth generation of his family to run Tovey Bros funeral directors in Newport, South Wales
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James Tovey

Mr Tovey said that the reform was “very useful” and he remained supportive of it.

“It’s just the delays. I’m sure they can do something about that over time, but it’s just waiting for that to happen, and I wish that could be addressed sooner rather than later,” he added.

“It does put pressure on other people, it’s not just ourselves, it’s pressure on the hospitals, on crematoria, on the registrar service and everyone else involved in our profession.

“But of course all of us we’re there to serve the families, and we’re just upset for them and wish we could do more to help.”

James Tovey
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The organisation representing funeral directors has called for “urgent action”

The National Association of Funeral Directors said some areas of England and Wales are experiencing much shorter delays than others, but has called for “urgent action”.

Rachel Bradburne, its director of external affairs, said the system was “introduced for all the right reasons” but that it was “not working as well as we need it to”.

“Funeral directors are relaying stories of delays, frustration, and bottlenecks on a daily basis, and urgent action is required to review and recalibrate the new system,” she added.

‘Unintended consequences’

Dr Roger Greene is the deputy chief executive of bereavement charity AtALoss.

He told Sky News that the delays were “one of the unintended consequences of what’s a well-intended reform of a system”.

“What has actually happened is that the number of deaths now requiring independent scrutiny has trebled,” he said.

“So in England and Wales in 2023, the last full year of data, there were nearly 200,000 deaths reported to a coroner, whereas there were 600,000 deaths.

“Now, what is the change in the process is that all deaths now need to be reported for independent scrutiny.”

Dr Roger Greene
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Dr Roger Greene

Dr Greene said there may be ways the system could be “tweaked a little bit”, such as giving medical examiners the ability to issue an interim death certificate.

“We believe that people can process grief well if they’re given the opportunity and they’ve got a proper understanding,” he added.

“But the systems that we have in the country need to be able to work as well with that diversity of faith and culture.”

‘Vital improvements’

Jason Shannon, lead medical examiner for Wales, told Sky News he recognised “the importance of a seamless, accurate and timely death certification process”.

“Medical examiners are one part of the wider death certification process and were introduced to give additional independent safeguards as well as to give bereaved people a voice, which they hadn’t had before,” he added.

“Medical examiners have no role in determining where the body of a family’s relative is cared for and except in a minority of deaths where a coroner needs to be involved, that decision should be one that a family is fully empowered to make in a way that is best for them.”

A Welsh government spokesperson said they “would like to apologise to any families who have experienced delays in receiving death certificates”.

The government said it was working with the lead medical examiner and the NHS in Wales “to understand where the delays are” and how to provide bereaved families with “additional support”.

Read more from Sky News:
Families feel impact of spiralling funeral costs
Calls for funeral sector to be regulated

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said it recognised there were “some regional variations in how long it takes to register a death”.

They added that the changes to the death certification process “support vital improvements to patient safety and aim to provide comfort and clarity to the bereaved”.

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‘Andrew Tate phenomena’ surges in schools – with boys refusing to talk to female teacher

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'Andrew Tate phenomena' surges in schools - with boys refusing to talk to female teacher

Social media influencers are fuelling a rise in misogyny and sexism in the UK’s classrooms, according to teachers.

More than 5,800 teachers were polled as part of the survey by the NASUWT teaching union, and nearly three in five (59%) of teachers said they believe social media use has contributed to a deterioration in pupils’ behaviour.

The findings have been published during the union’s annual conference, which is taking place in Liverpool this weekend.

One motion that is set to be debated at the conference calls on the union’s executive to work with teachers “to assess the risk that far-right and populist movements pose to young people”.

Andrew Tate was referenced by a number of teachers who took part in the survey, who said he had negative influence on male pupils.

One teacher said she’d had 10-year-old boys “refuse to speak to [her]…because [she is] a woman”.

Another teacher said “the Andrew Tate phenomena had a huge impact on how [pupils at an all-boys school] interacted with females and males they did not see as ‘masculine'”.

While another respondent to the survey said their school had experienced some incidents of “derogatory language towards female staff…as a direct result of Andrew Tate videos”.

Last month, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosted a discussion in Downing Street on how to prevent young boys from being dragged into a “whirlpool of hatred and misogyny”.

The talks were with the creators of Netflix drama Adolescence, which explored so-called incel culture.

Read more from Sky News:
Former Rochdale footballer dies aged 36
Two Britons among four killed in cable car crash

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Starmer meets Adolescence creators

‘An urgent need for action’

Patrick Roach, the union’s general secretary, said “misogyny, racism and other forms of prejudice and hatred…are not a recent phenomenon”.

He said teachers “cannot be left alone to deal with these problems” and that a “multi-agency response” was needed.

“There is an urgent need for concerted action involving schools, colleges and other agencies to safeguard all children and young people from the dangerous influence of far-right populists and extremists,” Mr Roach added.

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A spokesperson for the Department for Education (DfE) said: “Education can be the antidote to hate, and the classroom should be a safe environment for sensitive topics to be discussed and where critical thinking is encouraged.

“That’s why we provide a range of resources to support teachers to navigate these challenging issues, and why our curriculum review will look at the skills children need to thrive in a fast-changing online world.”

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Joe Thompson: Former Rochdale footballer dies aged 36 after third cancer diagnosis

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Joe Thompson: Former Rochdale footballer dies aged 36 after third cancer diagnosis

Former Rochdale player Joe Thompson has died aged 36.

His former club said it was “devastated” to learn of his death.

Thompson, who retired in 2019, was diagnosed with cancer for a third time last year.

In its statement, Rochdale FC said he died “peacefully at home on Thursday, with his family by his side”.

He made over 200 appearances for Rochdale, who he joined from Manchester United‘s academy in 2005.

The club posted a tribute on X, describing the former midfielder as “a warm personality who had a deep connection with our club from a young age”.

In her tribute on Instagram, Thompson’s wife Chantelle said he had “made such an impact on so many people” and he was “the most incredible husband, son, brother, friend and father”.

During his career, he played for Tranmere Rovers, Bury and Carlisle United, with spells on loan at Wrexham and Southport.

He was first diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in 2013, while playing for Tranmere.

When Thompson rejoined Rochdale from Carlisle in 2016 the disease soon returned, but he confirmed he was cancer free in June 2017.

Two years later, he announced his retirement at the age of 29, saying his body had been pushed “to the limit” having twice undergone treatment for cancer.

Last year, he revealed he had been diagnosed with stage four lymphoma which had spread to his lungs.

Read more from Sky News:
Man hijacks plane and stabs passengers
Two Britons among four killed in cable car crash

Hodgkin lymphoma is a relatively aggressive type of cancer that can spread quickly through the body, according to the NHS.

Rochdale, who face Altrincham on Friday, have confirmed that players will wear black armbands during the National League match.

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