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It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.

The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.

The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.

Three names emerge in Tory leadership contest – politics latest

Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.

After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.

As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.

How will Tories pick the new PM?

Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak
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Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest

The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.

Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.

How the Tory Party changes its leader

Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.

But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.

The expected timeline of events in electing a new PM

If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.

If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .

Read more:
Resignations, reversals and rebellion – the 44 days of Liz Truss’s premiership
It’s hard to see how new PM will stop the rot – Beth Rigby analysis

Will Johnson derail the smooth transition?

Boris Johnson outside Number 10 on 6 September, the day he handed over power to Liz Truss Pic: AP

Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.

All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.

His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.

But, but, but.

Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.

There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.

Could an unlikely outsider emerge?

Attorney General Suella Braverman during a regional cabinet meeting at Middleport Pottery in Stoke on Trent. Picture date: Thursday May 12, 2022.

If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.

Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.

Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.

Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.

In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.

Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.

MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.

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Martin Lewis reveals who is due for car finance compensation – and how much they’ll get

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Martin Lewis reveals who is due for car finance compensation - and how much they'll get

Martin Lewis says motorists who were mis-sold car finance are likely to receive “hundreds, not thousands of pounds” – with regulators launching a consultation on a new compensation scheme.

The founder of MoneySavingExpert.com believes it is “very likely” that about 40% of Britons who entered personal contact purchase or hire purchase agreements between 2007 and 2021 will be eligible for payouts.

“Discretionary commission arrangements” saw brokers and dealers charge higher levels of interest so they could receive more commission, without telling consumers.

Pics: PA
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Pics: PA

Speaking to Sky News Radio’s Faye Rowlands, Lewis said: “Very rarely will it be thousands of pounds unless you have more than one car finance deal.

“So up to about a maximum of £950 per car finance deal where you are due compensation.”

Lewis explained that consumers who believe they may have been affected should check whether they had a discretionary commission arrangement by writing to their car finance company.

However, the personal finance guru warned against using a claims firm.

More on Money

“They’re hardly going to do anything for you and you might get the money paid to you automatically anyway, in which case you’re giving them 30% for nothing,” he added.

Read more: How to tell if you’ve been mis-sold car finance

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Who’s eligible for payout after car finance scandal?

Yesterday, the Financial Conduct Authority said its review of the past use of motor finance “has shown that many firms were not complying with the law or our disclosure rules that were in force when they sold loans to consumers”.

The FCA’s statement added that those affected “should be appropriately compensated in an orderly, consistent and efficient way”.

Lewis told Sky News that the consultation will launch in October – and will take six weeks.

“We expect payouts to come in 2026, assuming this will happen and it’s very likely to happen,” he said.

“As for exactly how will work, it hasn’t decided yet. Firms will have to contact people, although there is an issue about them having destroyed some of the data for older claims.”

He believes claims will either be paid automatically – or affected consumers will need to opt in and apply to get compensation back.

Read more from Sky News:
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What motorists should do next

The FCA says you may be affected if you bought a car under a finance scheme, including hire purchase agreements, before 28 January 2021.

Anyone who has already complained does not need to do anything.

The authority added: “Consumers concerned that they were not told about commission, and who think they may have paid too much for the finance, should complain now”.

Its website advises drivers to complain to their finance provider first.

If you’re unhappy with the response, you can then contact the Financial Ombudsman.

Any compensation scheme will be easy to participate in, without drivers needing to use a claims management company or law firm.

The FCA has warned motorists that doing so could end up costing you 30% of any compensation in fees.

The FCA estimates the cost of any scheme – including compensation and administrative costs – to be no lower than £9bn.

But in a video on X, Lewis said that millions of people are likely to be due a share of up to £18bn.

The regulator’s announcement comes after the Supreme Court ruled on a separate, but similar, case on Friday.

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UK weather: Storm Floris sparks amber warning – with trains cancelled

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UK weather: Storm Floris sparks amber warning - with trains cancelled

Storm Floris is nearing the UK – with train companies in the hardest-hit areas urging passengers not to travel today.

The Met Office has issued an amber “danger to life” warning for wind in parts of Scotland, with gusts of up to 90mph possible.

That alert is in force from 10am until 10pm, with forecasters warning “unusually strong” winds could close roads and damage buildings.

Check the latest weather forecast here

Waves break on the sea front in Blackpool. File pic: PA
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Waves break on the sea front in Blackpool. File pic: PA

A wider yellow warning – covering the North of England and Northern Ireland – is also active between 6am this morning and 11.59pm tonight.

Train operator LNER has warned passengers not to travel north of Newcastle, while Avanti West Coast has advised its customers not to travel north of Preston as it will be “heavily affected” by the weather.

“We’re expecting heavy rain and high winds to result in disruption of services,” LNER said in a statement.

More on Uk Weather

Some trains have already been cancelled in Scotland, with Network Rail saying several lines will be closed from 12pm. Other routes will run with a reduced timetable and longer journey times.

Among the routes set to close at midday are Edinburgh to Fife, Perth to Dundee, and Aberdeen to Inverness, as well as the West Highland Line.

The storm could also lead to road closures – and several ferry services have already been cancelled by Scottish operator CalMac.

The Met Office said that much of Scotland, particularly western coastal areas, will be battered by heavy rain and windy conditions.

Pic: Met Office
Image:
Pic: Met Office

The strongest gusts are expected this afternoon and into the evening – but a Met Office spokesperson warned “there remains some uncertainty in the depth and track of Floris”.

Sky News’ weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: “Storm Floris is likely to bring a spell of weather not usually associated with the height of summer.

“Travelling across the Atlantic, this otherwise unremarkable, low-pressure system will cross a powerful jet stream, exiting on the cold side, renowned for storm formation.”

Read more from Sky News:
Martin Lewis: Who is due for car finance compensation
Two arrested on suspicion of murder over fatal London stabbing

She said inland gusts of 50mph to 60mph are widely possible, potentially reaching 80mph to 90mph over exposed coasts, hills and bridges.

“The rain associated with this storm will largely clear through early tomorrow, but it’s as the rain goes that the winds start to strengthen,” she warned.

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How Air India crash victim’s grieving family discovered remains mix-up

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How Air India crash victim's grieving family discovered remains mix-up

Almost two months after Air India Flight 171’s deadly crash, some of the 53 British nationals on board are only now being laid to rest.

Some 300 friends, families, and locals from the Gujarati community in and around London gathered in Wembley for a prayer and memorial service dedicated to remembering some of the victims.

Wearing his father’s emerald ring that was miraculously recovered from the wreckage, Miten Patel addresses the crowd.

Miten Patel, whose parents Ashok and Shobhana Patel died in the Air India plane crash, reading a eulogy
Ashok Patel's ring, recovered from the Air India flight, being worn by Miten Patel

His parents, Ashok and Shobhana Patel, were travelling back to their home in Orpington, Kent, after a spiritual trip to India, when they were killed in the crash on 12 June.

Their funeral was held only days ago, after being delayed following the discovery that the remains of other individuals were found in Miten’s mother’s casket.

A photo of Ashok and Shobhana Patel, who died in the Air India plane crash, on display at a vigil
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Ashok and Shobhana Patel were among 241 who died in the Air India plane crash

He credits Professor Fiona Wilcox, the senior coroner at Inner West London Coroner’s Court, for meeting with him and his family to break the news.

“My parents were the first ones repatriated in the UK,” Miten explains – he organised the repatriation of his parents before he flew out to Ahmedabad.

“When they were back home, the first thing that they did was a CT scan. And that’s when it came about, the CT scan showed that with mum’s remains, there were further remains there too.

“I don’t know what they were. I don’t know how many.”

Miten Patel, whose parents Ashok and Shobhana Patel died in the Air India plane crash
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The remains of other individuals were found in Miten’s mother’s casket

Miten’s parents’ funeral was attended by hundreds. His father, Ashok, was a financial adviser and his mother, Shobhana, was a retired microbiologist.

As the eldest son, organising much of his parents’ farewell fell to him. The concern around his mother’s remains delayed the family’s chance to grieve.

“I think there should be a level of responsibility taken. Why did that happen? Where was the flaw in that process? I mean I do understand that whole situation, people were rushing, people were very tired.

“You know, to get all the remains, then having to separate them by DNA, it’s a long process. But really, for us as loved ones, it is very upsetting.”

Indian government spokesman Randhir Jaiswal previously said the country was “working closely with the UK side from the moment these concerns and issues were brought to our attention”.

“In the wake of the tragic crash, the concerned authorities had carried out identification of victims as per established protocols and technical requirements,” he said. “All mortal remains were handled with utmost professionalism and with due regard for the dignity of the deceased.

“We are continuing to work with the UK authorities on addressing any concerns related to this issue.”

The flight crashed moments after take-off en route to Gatwick, killing 241 people on board. Horrifying images were beamed around the world within minutes.

Confusion and fear spread like wildfire among relatives back in the UK, who immediately tried to get hold of their loved ones.

Read more:
Plane suffered ‘no mechanical fault’ before crash – chief executive
Anger growing as Air India families wait for relatives’ remains

It was a family member of Komal Patel’s who called her after seeing the images on the news.

There was only one flight out of Ahmedabad back to London that day, and she had only just been texting her brother Sunny and his wife Monali, who’d been on holiday.

The events of the past few weeks have been unfathomable.

A photo of Sunny and Monali Patel, who died in the Air India plane crash, on display at a vigil
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Sunny and Monali Patel were about to celebrate their 10-year anniversary

In her first interview about her brother and her sister-in-law, Komal explains how she flew out to India with her cousin Jina to go and identify her little brother.

“Because we weren’t really allowed to see the body, I don’t think I’ve really come to terms with it. I still think I’m dreaming and it’s not really real,” Komal tells us.

Sunny and Monali Patel were in their 30s and about to celebrate their 10-year anniversary.

Jina and Komal Patel, whose relatives Sunny and Monali Patel died in the Air India plane crash
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Komal Patel flew to India with her cousin Jina to identify her little brother

The couple were the “light” and “soul” of their families.

They loved having fun, playing with their nieces and nephews and adored travelling. Komal says her brother loved barbecues and her sister-in-law worked with children and adored hers too.

“They’re just really fun, exciting, really lived life, just made memories, just made everyone really happy,” says big sister Komal.

“They were like the heart of my kids. Whenever they walked into a room, they just filled up the room with laughter and happiness.”

A photo of Sunny and Monali Patel, who died in the Air India plane crash, on display at a vigil
Image:
A photo of Sunny and Monali Patel, who died in the Air India plane crash, on display at a vigil

The couple had been due to fly back home to London a week beforehand but postponed their flight.

“It has just been very traumatic, very, very sad for us, losing Sunny and Monali at 39 years old,” says their cousin Jina.

“They were full of life and brought so much light into our family. As a family, we’re devastated at why two people so young, with so much energy, who brought so much into our families have just sort of gone in one day.”

Read more from Ashna Hurynag:
Attacker told man stabbed in sword rampage: ‘I’m going to kill you’
Daughter’s ‘painful’ last memory of mum stabbed at carnival

A joint funeral for the husband and wife was held a fortnight ago and like hundreds of families impacted by this tragedy, the family are now rebuilding a foundation that has been shattered.

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