It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.
The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.
The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.
Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.
After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.
As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.
How will Tories pick the new PM?
Image: Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest
The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.
Advertisement
Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.
Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.
But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.
If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.
If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .
Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.
All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.
His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.
But, but, but.
Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.
There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.
Could an unlikely outsider emerge?
If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.
Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.
Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.
Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.
In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.
Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.
MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.
England’s 2003 Rugby World Cup winner Lewis Moody has been diagnosed with motor neurone disease.
The 47-year-old former England captain said it had been “incredibly hard to process and a huge shock to me and my family”.
In a social media post, he wrote: “I’m writing to share some tough news. I have recently been diagnosed with ALS, also known as Motor Neurone Disease (MND).”
He said: “I feel fit and well in myself and I’m focused on staying positive, living life and dealing with the changes I will experience as they come.
“I am being well supported by my family, friends and medical professionals and I’m truly grateful to those who, in their time, helped progress research to support others, like me, living with this disease.
Image: England’s Lewis Moody (R) tackles Robert Sidoli from Wales during a Rugby World Cup quarter-final in 2003. Pic: Reuters
Image: Lewis Moody, fourth from right in the middle row, poses with Queen Elizabeth II after winning the 2003 World Cup. Pic: Reuters
Since retiring from the sport in 2012, Moody and his wife, Annie, have dedicated much of their time to fundraising for The Lewis Moody Foundation, which supports those affected by brain tumours.
“My plan is to continue with this, but to also create an opportunity to support a charity closer to my current situation,” said Moody, who was awarded an MBE for services to rugby in 2004.
“I would be so grateful for your help with this and look forward to sharing more, once I am clear on what this looks like.”
Rugby players could be prone to motor neurone disease – but causes still unknown
Fellow rugby players Doddie Weir and Rob Burrow have died from the disease in recent years.
The sport – and in particular England skills coach Kevin Sinfield – have worked on high-profile fundraising campaigns to tackle it.
Athletes appear to be disproportionately likely to contract MND, which causes muscle weakness to the point it can eventually be hard to eat or breathe.
Image: Credit: Action Images / Paul Harding Livepic via Reuters
Research from Durham University found rugby players could be especially prone, as those who have suffered multiple concussions have higher levels of certain proteins in their blood that are linked to the disease.
“For now, please know I feel your love and support,” Moody added.
“All I ask is that I am given some space to navigate this with my wife and sons, and those closest to us – but without doubt, I will continue to embrace life and grasp opportunities in the same way I always have.”
What is motor neurone disease?
Motor neurone disease (MND) causes muscle weakness that gets worse over the course of months or years.
It’s usually life-shortening and there’s currently no cure, but treatments have been developmed to help manage the symptoms.
Initial symptoms can be: stiff or weak hands, weak legs and feet and twitches, spasms or muscle cramps.
They can worsen into problems breathing, swallowing and speaking, changes to personality and mood and being unable to walk or move.
It affects around one in 300 people.
A handful of studies have shown a correlation between professional sports to MND, but do not prove a cause.
A ‘glittering career’
Moody won 71 caps for England and also five for the British and Irish Lions, and was a seven-time title winner with Leicester.
He is perhaps best known for winning the final lineout during the 2003 World Cup final, which led to Jonny Wilkinson’s historic match-winning drop goal.
Lions Rugby Chair Ieuan Evans MBE said: “We are all greatly saddened to hear the news of Lewis Moody’s diagnosis.”
He added: “As a player, Lewis inspired so many fans during a glittering career.”
Moody joined Leicester Tigers from Oakham School and made 223 appearances between 1996 and 2010.
The club said everyone there was “deeply saddened to learn that one of our greatest players” had been diagnosed with MND.
“The figures, trophies and awards tell you what an incredible player Lewis was, but that is only half the story,” said Tigers chief executive Andrea Pinchen.
“As an individual, his commitment to his club along with his warmth and passion shone through, which endeared him to teammates, staff and supporters alike.”
A shake-up to the house-buying system which could cut a month off the time it takes – and slash around £700 from the moving bill – is on the table.
Changes could include requiring property sellers and estate agents to provide more information when a home is listed for sale, reducing the need for buyers to carry out searches and surveys.
Binding contracts could also be introduced at an earlier stage, reducing the risk of a chain collapsing.
The proposals could also deliver clearer information to consumers about estate agents and conveyancers, including their track record and expertise, along with new mandatory qualifications and a code of practice to drive up standards.
Housing Secretary Steve Reed said the proposals, which are the subject of a consultation, would help make “a simple dream, a simple reality”.
The government says it will set out a full roadmap in the new year after consulting on its proposals.
Image: Housing Secretary Steve Reed. Pic: PA
Mr Reed said: “Buying a home should be a dream, not a nightmare.
More on Housing
Related Topics:
“Our reforms will fix the broken system so hardworking people can focus on the next chapter of their lives.”
Officials believe the proposed package of reforms could cut around a month off the time it takes to buy a new home and save first-time buyers an average of £710.
People selling a home could face increased costs of around £310 due to the inclusion of upfront assessments and surveys.
Those in the middle of a chain would potentially gain a net saving of £400 as a result of the increased costs from selling being outweighed by lower buying expenses.
Wider use of online processes, including digital ID, could help make transactions smoother, the government argued, pointing to the Finnish digital real estate system which can see the process completed in around two weeks.
The consultation also draws on other jurisdictions, including the Scottish system where there is more upfront information and earlier binding contracts.
‘Process the same as for our grandparents’
The planned shake-up was welcomed by property websites and lenders.
Rightmove chief executive Johan Svanstrom said: “The home-moving process involves many fragmented parts, and there’s simply too much uncertainty and costs along the way.
Image: Looking for the perfect home on Rightmove. File pic: PA
“Speed, connected data and stakeholder simplicity should be key goals. We believe it’s important to listen to agents as the experts for what practical changes will be most effective, and we look forward to working with the government on this effort to improve the buying and selling process.”
Santander’s head of homes David Morris said: “At a time when technology has changed many processes in our lives, it is incredible that the process of buying a home – an activity that is a cornerstone of our economy – remains much the same for today’s buyers as it did for their grandparents.”
Conservative shadow housing minister Paul Holmes said that while Labour welcomed steps to digitise and speed up the process, the party risked “reinventing the last Labour government’s failed Home Information Packs – which reduced the number of homes put on sale, and duplicated costs across buyers and sellers”.
The Tories will pledge to make even further cuts to the foreign aid budget, as the party attempts to regain its reputation for fiscal responsibility in the wake of the Truss mini-budget.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride will unveil plans to cut overseas development aid to 0.1% of Gross National Income (GNI), down from the current 0.3%, cementing a sea change in the Conservative Party’s position on international aid.
In his keynote speech to the party conference in Manchester, Sir Mel will claim that his plans can save £47bn over the next parliament, which include cuts to welfare, the civil service, and green subsidies.
In the wake of the Truss mini-budget that saw the pound fall and interest rates soar, the senior MP will say that his party will “never, ever make fiscal commitments without spelling out exactly how they will be paid for”, and commit to fiscal responsibility.
A key part of Sir Mel’s plans to demonstrate that is to reduce foreign aid to 0.1% of GNI, or around £3bn per year – down from spending of an estimated £9.4bn in 2028-29.
The Boris Johnson government reduced aid spending to 0.5% of GNI in 2021, in order to pay for the vast public spending during the pandemic. Sir Keir Starmer announced a further cut to 0.3% of GNI earlier this year to pay for the increase in defence spending.
Bond, the network for organisations working in international development and humanitarian assistance, has hit out at the announcement, describing it as “reckless, short-sighted, and morally indefensible”.
More on Conservatives
Related Topics:
Its chief executive, Romilly Greenhill, told Conservatives at a fringe event at the Tory Party conference on Sunday: “Let’s just be really clear, such a policy would negatively impact millions of people around the world.
“It would harm deeply vital programmes being made in reducing, eradicating, killer diseases, and it would also severely undermine our ability to respond to devastating global crises.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:55
Does it matter that foreign aid has been cut in the UK?
But the Tories say they “cannot justify taxing people in this country to pay for billions of spending abroad”, and it marks the death-knell of Tory former prime minister David Cameron’s target of spending 0.7% of GNI on aid, announced in 2011.
Welfare, green subsidies, and asylum hotels to face the chop
Another key area where Sir Mel will pledge to make savings will be the welfare system, where they claim £23bn can be cut.
He will say that narrowing the eligibility for sickness benefits, stopping claims from people with “low-level mental health problems” who could be treated instead, limiting the VAT subsidy for Motability, and reforming job-seeking obligations are key areas where savings can be made.
But a major change will be restricting welfare to British citizens – bringing Tory party policy in line with Reform UK.
But he will vow to reverse any decision from the current Labour government to lift the two-child benefit cap, which stands in contrast with Nigel Farage’s party that wants to lift it.
Sir Mel is expected to say the reforms are essential not just for balancing the books, but for tackling the deeper social damage caused by long-term dependency.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:03
Tories would quit European Convention on Human Rights
Another key target of the shadow chancellor is the civil service, where he will argue that £8bn in savings can be made by reducing the headcount from 517,000 down to 2016 levels of 384,000.
Scrapping the Climate Change Act and “costly and ineffective green subsidies being pushed by Ed Miliband” is also on Sir Mel’s agenda. The Tories say there are savings of £1.6bn a year to be made in this area.
And closing all asylum hotels will save at least £3.5bn, the Tories say – at least £1.6bn of which they have already allocated to their new ICE-style “removals force”, to detain and remove 150,000 illegal migrants per year.
In his speech, Sir Mel Stride MP is expected to say: “The Conservative Party will never, ever make fiscal commitments without spelling out exactly how they will be paid for.
“We’re the only party that gets it. The only party that will stand up for fiscal responsibility. We must get on top of government spending.
“We cannot deliver stability unless we live within our means. No more pretending we can keep spending money we simply do not have.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
But Labour Party chair Anna Turley said: “The Tories let welfare bills, civil service numbers and asylum hotel use skyrocket on their watch – and they’ve never apologised. Now they want to rehash failed promises from their failed manifesto to try to solve the problems they caused.
“This is the same old Tories, with the same old policies. They didn’t work then and you can’t trust them now.”
And Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Daisy Cooper said it was “clear the Conservative Party learnt absolutely nothing from their disastrous handling of the economy, which left families struggling with a cost-of-living crisis and public services on their knees”.
She added: “Cutting vital support to bring household bills down, trying to balance the books on the backs of people with mental health conditions and slashing the UK’s soft power abroad through aid budget cuts shows Trussonomics is still in full swing.”