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The downturn in the economy has worsened this month as the service sector recorded the fastest decline in activity since January 2021, according to the closely-watched S&P Global / CIPS Flash UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

The survey of 650 manufacturers and 650 service providers showed that growth was lower than expected and was at a level not seen since the financial crash, if the months of the pandemic are excluded.

Scores below 50 on the index indicate economic contraction.

While a score of 48 was expected, a score of 45 was recorded for UK manufacturing output, a 29-month low.

Economic contraction was recorded across multiple categories. A 21-month low on the index was recorded for both the PMI business activity index and the composite output index.

The data showed the pace of economic decline gained pace due to “recent political and financial market upheavals”, according to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P global market intelligence.

“The heightened political and economic uncertainty has caused business activity to fall at a rate not seen since the global financial crisis in 2009 if pandemic lockdown months are excluded.”

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As a result, recession is likely, he said. “GDP therefore looks certain to fall in the fourth quarter after a likely third quarter contraction, meaning the UK is in recession.”

The survey showed business confidence had fallen to a level “rarely seen before in 25 years of survey history”, he added.

“As night follows day, investment and employment will suffer in the months ahead as companies adjust to the increasingly challenging environment. Hiring is already slowing sharply, with manufacturing now even shedding workers.”

Inflation remained higher than at any time in the survey’s history prior to the pandemic. Despite reduced consumer demand the weak pound and high energy costs the inflationary pressure “look set to drive the Bank of England into further aggressive interest rate hikes”, Mr Williamson said, which will increase borrowing costs.

“On top of the collapse in political stability, financial market stress and slump in confidence, these higher borrowing costs will add to speculation of a worryingly deep UK recession.”

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Applied Nutrition to unveil retail offer alongside £500m float

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Ordinary investors will be given the chance to participate in a £500m flotation of Applied Nutrition, the fast-growing sports supplements maker, when it unveils plans for an initial public offering in London this week.

Sky News has learnt that Liverpool-based Applied Nutrition will issue an announcement signalling its expected intention to float on Monday morning, paving the way for one of the City’s most prominent floats of 2024.

City sources said that a retail offering to private investors would be coordinated by RetailBook, enabling them to acquire millions of pounds of stock at the IPO price.

Issuing its EITF document will enable shares in Applied Nutrition to begin trading before the Budget in late October, when chancellor Rachel Reeves is forecast to substantially increase capital gains tax.

The Sunday Times recently reported that the timing of the company’s float had been brought forward to enable existing shareholders – including founder and chief executive Thomas Ryder – to offload parts of their holding without incurring CGT at a higher level.

Applied Nutrition has already attracted pre-IPO investments from prominent businesspeople including Peter Cowgill, the former JD Sports Fashion boss who authorised its purchase of a large stake in the company.

Mr Cowgill previously sat on the board of Applied Nutrition as a non-executive, but stepped down when he left JD Sports in 2022.

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It has also appointed Andy Bell, founder of the London-listed investment platform AJ Bell, as its chairman, further bolstering its credentials for an initial public offering (IPO).

Bankers at Deutsche Numis are handling the float.

Founded by Mr Ryder, Applied Nutrition formulates and makes premium nutrition supplements for professional athletes and gym enthusiasts.

It is the official nutrition partner of a range of English football clubs, including Premier League side Fulham, and the Scottish Premiership side Glasgow Rangers.

The company, which sells its products in over 60 countries, also has partnerships with professional boxers, MMA stars and in sports including basketball, cycling and rugby league.

Applied Nutrition’s largest brands include ABE – All Black Everything – which is a pre-workout range now stocked by Walmart, the world’s biggest physical retailer and former owner of Asda.

Other products in its portfolio include BodyFuel, a hydration drink.

A successful listing for the company would boost the London Stock Exchange’s broader efforts to attract fast-growing companies to list their shares in the UK.

Decisions by a growing number of companies to shift their listings to the US – with Paddy Power-owner Flutter Entertainment becoming the latest example – have cast a pall over the City.

Last year saw the number of companies going public in London halving, with proceeds raised from initial public offerings (IPOs) falling by 40% year-on-year.

A spokesperson for Applied Nutrition declined to comment.

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Carlyle joins list of possible Thames Water rescue backers

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Carlyle joins list of possible Thames Water rescue backers

Carlyle, the American investment giant, has become the latest global fund to weigh an investment in Thames Water as the stricken utility races to avoid being nationalised.

Sky News has learnt that Carlyle, which has roughly $435bn in assets under management, is at the very preliminary stages of assessing whether an investment in Thames Water Utilities Limited (TWUL) would be viable.

Britain’s biggest water and wastewater company, which has about 16 million customers, is edging towards the brink of collapse after warning in recent days that its financial liquidity is set to expire months earlier than previously anticipated.

It has also seen its credit rating downgraded further into junk territory by two leading rating agencies.

Carlyle is one of a long list of prospective investors approached by Rothschild, the investment bank advising Thames Water’s board, as the utility scrambles to raise more than £3bn in the coming months.

This weekend, people close to the process confirmed that Carlyle had been approached but said it was “too early” to judge whether the firm might participate in a rescue deal through one or more of its funds.

Among the others sounded out by Rothschild are Brookfield, the Canadian investment giant, and Global Infrastructure Partners, which is now owned by BlackRock.

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Many investors and industry analysts believe, however, that the Rothschild-led process is destined to fail given the massive financial restructuring which faces Thames Water.

The company has about £16bn in debt, with approximately £10bn of that accounted for by a group of 90 funds which have appointed Jefferies and Akin Gump to represent them.

That syndicate is now preparing its own rescue plan in the coming weeks, which is likely to include an enormous debt-for-equity swap that would wipe out the existing shareholders.

Thames Water’s future remains so shrouded in uncertainty because the industry watchdog, Ofwat, has rejected the company’s initial spending plans for the next five-year regulatory period.

The company is now engaged in discussions with Ofwat ahead of its final determination in December.

A bridging loan of about £1bn is being contemplated by some of Thames Water’s creditors, but some stakeholders remain sceptical that any new financing will be forthcoming without greater regulatory certainty.

“Until the lenders know what they are bridging to, the concern deepens that they risk throwing good money after bad,” said one fund.

TWUL’s board is said to have met in the last 48 hours to discuss the implications of its latest rating downgrades and impending liquidity shortfall.

One creditor said that Ofwat was expected to appoint an independent monitor next week to scrutinise the company’s progress against its turnaround plan.

Ofwat, which signalled in August that it would make such an appointment, declined to comment.

If new investment into Thames Water is not forthcoming before it runs out of cash, the government will have little choice but to sanction the temporary nationalisation of the company.

This would be done through a Special Administration Regime (SAR), a procedure tested only once before when Bulb Energy collapsed in 2021.

As part of its contingency planning for implementing a far-reaching restructuring, Thames Water has booked court dates in November to progress a rescue deal.

A source close to the company said that Thames Water “continues to look at all options for extending its liquidity and raising new equity”.

“Reserving court dates is sensible forward planning and a part of keeping all options open.”

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Former Missguided owner Alteri in talks to buy Kurt Geiger

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Former Missguided owner Alteri in talks to buy Kurt Geiger

A former owner of Missguided, the youth fashion brand, is in talks to buy Kurt Geiger, the upmarket shoe and accessories retailer.

Sky News has learnt that Alteri Investors, which was backed by the global private equity giant Apollo Management when it launched a decade ago, is among a number of parties in discussions about a takeover of the 61-year-old footwear brand.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were at an early stage and were not being held on an exclusive basis.

Several other parties are also considering bids for Kurt Geiger, which has been owned by Cinven, the private equity firm, since 2015.

The brand’s celebrity customers reportedly include Kylie Jenner, Jennifer Lopez and Paris Hilton.

Last October, Sky News revealed that Cinven had appointed Bank of America to oversee an auction of the retailer.

At the time, banking sources said they expected the company to fetch a price in the region of £400m.

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It was unclear what valuation a deal under discussion with Alteri would command.

Luxury goods groups and other buyout firms are understood to have been examining offers for Kurt Geiger in recent months.

Kurt Geiger, which was founded in 1963, is run by Neil Clifford, its long-serving chief executive.

Previously backed by Sycamore Partners, another private equity group, the brand is targeting significant expansion in the US through a chain of standalone stores.

To mark its 60th anniversary last year, Mr Clifford announced plans to establish a design academy for young people to embark on careers in the fashion industry.

Mr Clifford has run the business for the last two decades.

Last year, it announced a £150m debt deal to fund its international expansion and refinance existing borrowings.

In the UK, Kurt Geiger’s shoes have been sold at department stores including Harrods and Selfridges for years.

Alteri has owned a number of retailers in Europe since it was established, and is the current owner of the Bensons for Beds chain.

It specialises in distressed or turnaround situations, and has been linked with chains including BHS, the now-defunct department store group, and Poundworld, the discounter.

Kurt Geiger recently published results showing a 10% rise in sales in the year to the end of January.

Earnings of £40.4m on revenue of £360m put the business back in line with its pre-Covid performance, Mr Clifford said last month.

Alteri and Cinven both declined to comment this weekend.

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