The diesel market is in a perfect storm as prices surge, supply dwindles ahead of winter
An aerial view of Phillips 66 oil refinery is seen in Linden, New Jersey, United States on May 11, 2022.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
A perfect storm is taking place in the diesel market, with dwindling diesel reserves, a drought on the Mississippi River pushing more product to rail and truck, and a possible rail strike leading to a surge in prices that is expected to continue.
Diesel prices have increased by 33% for November deliveries.
“The national average price for diesel today is $5.30 per gallon and is expected to go up 15 to 20 cents in the next few weeks,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, LLC.
Reserves for diesel this time of year have not been this low since 1951, with the greatest shortfall in the Northeast region including New York and New England.
“This is not only constricting the ability of farmers to export the soybeans and grain they grow but also to receive the fuel and fertilizer they need to operate,” said Mike Steenhoek executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition of the low water conditions that have turned the Mississippi River from a multi-lane interstate to a two-lane highway.
“Now adding insult to injury is the increased uncertainty that railroads will be able to provide an effective lifeline during this critical time. It’s a vivid reminder that it is not enough to produce a crop or have demand for that crop. Having a reliable supply chain that connects supply with demand is also essential for farmers to be successful,” Steenhoek said.
Two rail unions recently voted down a labor deal needed to avert a national strike in the coming months.
East Coast refineries operating at max capacity
Diesel inventories in the New York/New England markets are facing an acute crisis, down over 50% since last year and at the lowest level since 1990, according to Lipow.
Lipow said East Coast refineries are making as much diesel as they can and dependent on tankers and barges for supply, any weather delay causes a terminal to run out of product..
According to the EIA, East Coast refineries operated at 100% capacity in June and July.
“Last week, they operated at 102% of capacity,” Lipow said. “No more supply is forthcoming from the four East Coast refineries.”
New England’s diesel supply issues were made worse when a Canadian refinery in Newfoundland shut down in 2020 as the pandemic impacted on demand.
The Midwest is also seeing supply constraints, pushing up costs for farmers.
“In visiting with a number of farmers, the consensus, of course, is that diesel costs are one more incursion into profitability,” Steenhoek said. “As far as getting supplies, it looks like those areas most dependent upon the river are experiencing the biggest challenge. A couple of farmers told me diesel supply via their local vendor is day to day.”
Jones Act restrictions on foreign vessels
In order for the Northeast to receive more diesel, the fuel needs to be imported from another country or a tanker from the Gulf Coast, but that is not allowed because of the Jones Act, also known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, which prohibits a foreign vessel from transporting all goods between two U.S. ports.
“The Jones Act requires all cargo transported between U.S. ports be carried on ships that are U.S. flagged and built, and mostly owned and crewed by Americans,” said Captain Adil Ashiq, United States Western region executive for MarineTraffic.
According to MarineTraffic, the 56 Jones Act tankers are being used. One way to add more supply quickly is for the Department of Homeland Security to temporarily waive the act for foreign vessels to move the fuel. The Jones Act was last waived for a tanker filled with diesel from the Gulf to go to hurricane-stricken Puerto Rico where the energy was needed for power generators.
As a result of the small quantity of U.S.-owned and operated tankers available for energy transport, the price to book a Jones Act tanker is about double that of a foreign-flagged tanker. For example, a Jones Act tanker carrying 300,000 barrels of diesel from Houston to Boston costs approximately 16 cents per gallon. If the Jones Act was waived, a foreign flag tanker carrying the same amount of fuel and heading to the identical location is estimated to cost half, 8 cents per gallon. This 8-cent per gallon difference translates into a $1 million savings per tanker. This is one of the reasons why energy traders favor using foreign flag tankers versus Jones Act tankers.
“If the [Biden] administration wants to replenish New England gasoline or distillate inventories at the expense of exports, they need to waive the Jones Act for refined products loading on the Gulf Coast for delivery to New York, New Jersey, and New England,” Lipow said. “Unfortunately, I don’t think they will do it until it is too late.”
Traders profit, Russia ban looms
Traders are diverting tankers away from Europe to the U.S. because the price of U.S. diesel is now higher than in Europe so they can make a larger profit. So far, two tankers have arrived and unloaded.
According to MarineTraffic, the tanker Thundercat was originally destined for the Netherlands after being loaded in the Middle East with about 650,000 barrels (the equivalent of 27 million gallons) of diesel. It went to New York. Another tanker, Proteus Jessica, loaded in the Singapore area with a similar diesel supply also headed to New York.
For regions including New England, competition with Europe for diesel supplies will intensify next year when an EU ban on Russian refined product purchases is implemented, Lipow said. Diesel exports are of particular interest with the date of February 5, 2023, when the EU sanctions on Russian refined oil products begin, said BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen, adding that 90% of the EU’s import volumes are diesel.
“The EU must replace on average 2 million tons of diesel imports from Russia,” Rasmussen said. “In addition, the International Energy Agency has estimated that the EU’s demand for refined products will increase by 300,000-500,000 barrels per day during winter to meet heating demands.”
On today’s budget-conscious episode of Quick Charge, we’re building up to the reveal of a new, more affordable Tesla Model Y tomorrow that will almost definitely not be a cheap pile of misaligned plastic body parts with inconsistent panel gaps that’s utterly incapable of turning the tide on Tesla’s global decline.
Plus, we’ve got news that Tesla is in hot water with California over its alleged mishandling of its insurance business, revisit the lies told about Cybertrucks drag racing Teslas, and look at the incredible 110% increase in EV sales over at GM that’s driving Cadillac’s renaissance.
Today’s episode is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. The nonprofit just kicked off its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream model. Visit the site at CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek to learn more.
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Waev Inc. has just unveiled the GEM eX, a new electric utility vehicle designed to bridge the gap between street-legal low-speed vehicles (LSVs) and true off-road work machines. The company calls it the most versatile electric work UTV yet.
Unlike most golf cart–based UTVs or high-speed recreational rigs, the GEM eX is purpose-built for commercial, industrial, and government fleets that need to move between city streets, job sites, and rough terrain, all while staying emissions-free.
The vehicle features a top speed of 25 mph (40 km/h) and is said to be DOT street-legal as an LSV on roads up to 35 mph (56 km/h), giving it a clear advantage over most off-road-only competitors.
Power is provided by a 6.5 kW motor in a rear-wheel drive setup with a limited-slip rear differential. An 8 kWh battery provides enough juice for a claimed maximum range of 85 miles (137 km).
The eX comes with several fleet-focused safety and utility upgrades, including 3-point seat belts, roof crush protection, backup camera, mirrors, pedestrian noise emitter, and a robust bumper system. It rolls on street, winter, or all-terrain tires, and the chassis features 9.5 inches (24 cm) of ground clearance, 6.5 inches (16.5 cm) of suspension travel, and a 50-degree approach angle for climbing curbs or crossing uneven work terrain.
Hill-hold assist and single-pedal descent control make it easy to handle on slopes, while a limited-slip differential helps maintain traction without chewing up turf.
In the back, a 1,250 lb (567 kg) composite dump box can fit a full-sized pallet and comes with gas-assist or electric lift options, while towing capacity matches that at 1,250 lb (567 kg). Optional hard doors, roll-down windows, and HVAC with heat and A/C turn it into a true all-weather workhorse.
The lithium iron phosphate battery pack is said to provide a long lifespan for extra durability in extreme climates from –20°F to 140°F (–29°C to 60°C). Charging is flexible via 120V, 240V, or J1772 public stations, and Waev backs the battery with a 7-year warranty – on par with many passenger EVs.
“We field-tested the GEM eX everywhere from Arizona deserts to Minnesota winters,” said Sven Etzelsberger, Waev’s Director of Engineering. “Every piece of customer feedback went back into this vehicle. The result is a work UTV that’s refined, reliable, and ready to go.”
The GEM platform has expanded significantly over the years, from its humble beginnings as a simple people mover to more recent adaptations into everything from ambulances and emergency vehicles to the new GEM eX electric UTV.
Priced at $24,955, the higher purchase price may be one of the few downsides to the quieter, cleaner, and easier to maintain alternative to traditional gasoline-powered UTVs.
Electrek’s Take
Waev’s new GEM eX seems to hit a sweet spot that’s been missing – a street-legal, electric work UTV tough enough for real jobs yet affordable and easy to maintain. For fleet managers juggling both paved and off-road environments, this could be a serious game-changer.
While the price is high, it comes in at significantly less than other well-known models like Polaris’ Zero-powered electric RANGER UTV.
At the same time, there are still more affordable options like those from KANDI that offer more power for a lower price. However, without GEM’s storied brand legacy and increased national support, cheaper options may not have the staying power to compete.
So sure, it’s expensive, but at least I’m glad to see more options coming to the market, especially from brands that have been around for years. Here’s to hoping for more affordable options in the future.
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Solar and wind power aren’t just keeping up with global electricity demand anymore – they’re pulling ahead. According to a new analysis from energy think tank Ember, solar and wind combined outpaced global electricity demand growth in the first half of 2025. That shift led to a drop in both coal and gas generation compared to the same period last year. For the first time ever, renewables generated more power than coal globally.
“We’re seeing the first signs of a crucial turning point,” said Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior electricity analyst at Ember. “Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet the world’s growing appetite for electricity. This marks the beginning of a shift where clean power is keeping pace with demand growth.”
Solar leads the charge
Global electricity demand rose 2.6% in the first half of 2025 – an additional 369 terawatt-hours (TWh) year-over-year. Solar met a stunning 83% of that increase, growing by 306 TWh, or 31% year-over-year. Combined with steady wind expansion, renewables were able to meet rising demand and start displacing fossil fuels.
Coal generation fell 0.6% (-31 TWh), gas dropped 0.2% (-6 TWh), and overall fossil generation declined 0.3% (-27 TWh). As a result, global power sector emissions fell by 0.2%.
Renewables supplied 5,072 TWh of electricity in the first half of 2025 – up from 4,709 TWh a year earlier. Coal, by comparison, generated 4,896 TWh, down 31 TWh year-over-year. It’s the first time on record that clean energy has overtaken coal.
A global turning point
Ember’s analysis shows this is more than a blip. Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet new demand and begin cutting into fossil generation. As deployment accelerates, Ember expects clean power to outstrip demand growth for longer stretches, pushing fossil fuels into permanent decline.
But progress isn’t uniform across the globe. Among the world’s four biggest power markets – China, India, the US, and the EU – two saw fossil generation fall, while two saw it rise.
China remains the global clean energy powerhouse, adding more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined. Its fossil generation fell 2% (-58.7 TWh) in the first half of 2025.
In India, clean power growth outpaced demand threefold. With electricity demand rising just 1.3% (+12 TWh) – far below the 9% surge seen last year – fossil generation dropped sharply: coal fell 3.1% (-22 TWh) and gas plunged 34% (-7.1 TWh).
In contrast, fossil generation rose in the US and EU. In the US, demand grew faster than renewables could keep up, leading to higher fossil fuel output. In the EU, weaker wind and hydro performance meant more gas and coal were needed to fill the gap.
What comes next
With half the world already past the peak of fossil fuel generation, Ember says the trend is clear: Clean power can keep up with rising electricity demand. But to lock in progress, deployment of solar, wind, and batteries needs to accelerate.
“Solar and wind are no longer marginal technologies – they’re driving the global power system forward,” said Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council. “The fact that renewables have overtaken coal for the first time marks a historic shift. But to secure it, governments and industry must step up investment in clean energy and storage so affordable, reliable power reaches everyone.”
Ember’s Wiatros-Motyka added, “With technology costs continuing to fall, now is the perfect moment to embrace the economic, social, and health benefits that come with increased solar, wind, and batteries.”
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 90% of new US power generating capacity to July 2025
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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