We were sitting on the back of his Trump-branded pick-up truck earlier this week when he made the prediction.
“I think that’s the only thing that’s going to bring America back together after this election if we lose.”
Civil war? When I moved to America a year ago, I recall people raising this fear. I remember thinking they were mad. How could anyone possibly believe the ‘world’s greatest democracy’, as it’s sometimes fondly described, could be heading for civil war?
I’ve reported from numerous failed or failing states over the years. It seemed nonsensical to suggest that the United States of America could be among them.
Well, a year on, my view is shifting and I am profoundly concerned.
The armies and frontlines are not formed in the traditional sense. But make no mistake, there are armies and there are frontlines. The fault lines are alarmingly deep. It would be wrong to think America can just muddle its way through this inflection point in its history.
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Recent polling suggests that a growing number of Americans believe political violence is acceptable. Just last week the husband of the nation’s third most senior politician, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was attacked in their home. Police say she was the target.
On the same day as the attack, authorities warned that threats of violence against politicians nationwide had massively increased.
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The nation is bitterly divided and there is one thing causing this agitation – about a third of voting-age people in this country believe the 2020 election was stolen. They believe Donald Trump won.
Doubt sown into fabric of US society
If you spent the past two years thinking this was a fringe view peddled by a former president; a con which can now be dismissed as background noise, well think again.
Doubt has been sown into the fabric of American society. People have been duped. They are dismissing the institutions on which American democracy was built. They have been told not to trust their electoral process.
Back on the pick-up truck, Mr Scherer’s friend Corey Check was angry. These two young disciples of Mr Trump firmly believe the election was stolen by Joe Biden and the ‘woke radical left’.
“Everything. Everything is at stake. America is at stake. If we lose it, our country’s going to hell…” Mr Check said.
Loyalists still believe Trump won
Rattled by their stark predictions, I sought out a different generation of Republicans hoping for a more measured, nuanced perspective.
Local campaigner Cindy Hilderbrand had invited me to meet a group of six friends and activists at the local Republican party headquarters.
My first question – how many of them thought that Mr Trump was the rightful winner in 2020? All their hands went up.
“Absolutely did win,” retired US Marine Paul Garcia said.
He was interrupted by another in the group, Cheryl Guenther: “… and it wasn’t just the election day shenanigans. It was everything leading up to that. The suppression of the news, the suppression of everything that happened, brought on by media. The media is nothing more than a Democrat arm that is helping suppress all of this information.”
To be clear, there is no evidence at all that the 2020 election was fraudulent. Audits, recounts and court cases in states across the land concluded that nothing had occurred which would have changed the result of the election. Mr Biden won by a wide margin.
Even Mr Trump’s closest aides and his own family have said he lost. Yet he persists and his loyalists believe him.
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Golfer Trump mocks White House successor Biden
Conspiracy theories spread faster than facts
Our conversation turns to the policy issues. On abortion, on crime, on drugs, on guns, on the economy, they all have perfectly legitimate conservative views. Broadly – abortion is wrong, crime and drugs are out of control, gun control is unconstitutional and the struggling economy is Mr Biden’s fault.
But here’s the problem. They believe they are failing to get their way on those policy issues not because a majority disagrees with them but because a minority stole the last election from them.
American society is siloed in echo chambers. They consume wildly partisan cable news, they believe nonsense on social media and dismiss factual reporting. Conspiracy theories spread faster than facts.
Threat to democracy ‘understated’
Not far away, at a rally for the local democratic party candidate, I got talking to a young Democratic Party voter, a man of similar age to Mr Scherer and Mr Check but poles apart in perspective.
Was this idea of a threat to democracy overstated, I asked.
“I think it might be understated. I think there’s a genuine threat to democracy in this country and it really scares the hell out of me,” Ryan told me.
“I don’t want to end up like what we’ve seen in Europe in the past. If we don’t learn from history, we’re doomed to repeat it and we need to uphold democracy to keep going, otherwise we are going to falter as well. I am worried.”
As America heads to the polls for this midterm take on the country’s direction, the anger and the division cannot be overstated.
Reflecting on all the conversations I have had, it’s jolting and bewildering.
There is so much going on; so many issues and there is absolutely no trust for the other side. There is anger and a sense of betrayal but I felt fear too. There is a real sense that Americans on all sides don’t know what comes next or how they will react to it.
A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?
What caused the California wildfires?
There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.
The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.
But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.
However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.
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LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’
What are Santa Ana winds?
So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.
Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.
It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.
These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.
They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.
The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.
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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared
The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect
The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
What role has climate change played?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.
But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.
But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.
Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.
“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.
“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”
The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.
A billowing cloud of black smoke loomed over the main shopping street with its fancy restaurants and designer shops, threatening to destroy what many here consider to be their slice of paradise.
It is a reminder of the destructive power of this sort of weather.
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Martha Kelner reports from Pacific Palisades
Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.
“This is surreal, this is unbelievable,” he said.
“I’ve lived here all my life but this is like nothing I’ve ever seen before. This is the worst of the worst.
“I’ve never seen it with these winds, we just keep praying that the direction changes. But if the direction changes it’s to the detriment of somebody else, that’s the horrible part about it all.”
January is not normally wildfire season, but these are not ordinary circumstances, the blazes being propelled by the strongest winds in southern California for more than a decade, fuelled by drought conditions.
Authorities are warning that the winds will grow stronger overnight, meaning that conditions will likely worsen before they get better.
Police and the fire department went door to door, urging people to evacuate or risk losing their lives.
On the main road out of town, there was gridlock traffic, with some abandoning their cars to flee on foot.
On Mount Holyoake Avenue, Liz Lerner, an 84-year-old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked.
“I don’t drive, and I’m by myself,” she said.
“I have no relatives, I’m 100% alone and I don’t know what to do. My father built this house in 1949, this is my family home and this is the end. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
Around the corner, another man was hosing down his multi-million dollar home in a bid to save his property from the fire bounding towards it from a nearby canyon.
“I can’t decide whether to evacuate or stay and carry on hosing down my house,” he said.
“It’s hard to know which way the flames are heading.”
Other blazes were breaking out across LA with firefighting planes grounded because of winds which are growing stronger by the hour.
More homes, neighbourhoods and lives are under threat from this perfect and petrifying storm.
Since winning re-election, president-elect Donald Trump has expressed an interest in acquiring Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, Mr Trump said he could not assure reporters that military or economic coercion would not be used to try and gain control of both areas.
“I can say this, we need them for economic security,” he said.
The two locations, which are nowhere near each other geographically, pose different interests to the incoming president.
But his desire to seize them both has caused immense backlash.
Why does Trump want Greenland?
Greenland is the world’s largest island and a semiautonomous territory of Denmark. With a population of 57,000, it has been part of Denmark for 600 years.
It is also a founding member of NATO and is home to a large US military base.
Straddling the Arctic circle between the US, Russia and Europe, the island offers a unique geopolitical advantage, that America has eyed for more than 150 years.
It’s even more valuable as the Arctic opens up more to shipping and trade.
The idea of purchasing Greenland is not a new idea for Mr Trump, as it came up during his first term in office. But he has since reiterated the benefit it could have for America’s national security.
“We need greater national security purposes,” Mr Trump said. “I’ve been told that for a long time, long before I even ran.
“People really don’t even know that Denmark has any legal right to it, but if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security.”
Mr Trump’s claim to the island coincided with a visit by his son, Donald Trump Jr, who was in Greenland filming for a documentary, Sky News US partner network, NBC News said.
As well as its location, Greenland holds rich deposits of various natural resources.
Locked inside the island are valuable rare earth minerals needed for telecommunications, as well as uranium, billions of untapped barrels of oil and a vast supply of natural gas that used to be inaccessible but is becoming less so.
Many of the same minerals are currently mostly supplied by China, so other countries such as the US are interested in tapping into available resources closer to home.
A front-row seat to the climate crisis
More than the oil, gas or minerals, Greenland has a lot of ice – and provides a front-row seat to the globe’s climate crisis.
If that ice melts, it would reshape coastlines across the globe and has the potential to dramatically shift weather patterns.
In fact, Greenland holds enough ice that if it all melts, the world’s seas would rise by 24ft (7.4m).
Greenland also influences hurricane and winter storm activity. Because of its mountains of ice, it has the power to change patterns in the jet stream, which brings storms across the globe and dictates daily weather.
Often, especially in winter, a blocking system of high pressure off Greenland causes Arctic air to plunge to the west and east, sweeping across North America and Europe, winter weather expert Judah Cohen told the Associated Press.
What effect could this have on the UK?
British politician and security expert, Mike Martin, explained on X that the seas between Greenland and the UK – which has Iceland in the middle – are “utterly vital” for NATO.
He explained that during the Cold War, the UK would often have 50 ships stationed in the area to look after the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap – which is the “only sensible route” that the Russian northern fleet has to get into the Atlantic Ocean.
Both the UK and Denmark continue to have a shared security interest in the gap.
The UK government website states that as part of the UK’s Arctic Policy Framework, it will continue to develop military capability in collaboration with Denmark, to allow it to operate in the region and in order to safeguard UK interests and those of its allies.
However, if overtaken by the US, this collaboration could be affected.
‘Greenland is not for sale’
Addressing Mr Trump’s comments in an interview with Danish broadcaster TV2, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she did not believe the US would use military or economic power to secure control over Greenland.
“Greenland is not for sale,” Ms Frederiksen said, adding: “We need to stay calm and stick to our principles.”
Referring to the US as Denmark’s “most important and closest ally” she said she welcomed the US taking a greater interest in the Arctic region, but said it would have to be done in a way that is “respectful of the Greenlandic people”.
In the past, Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede has called for independence from Denmark, but said he has no interest in the island nation becoming part of the US.
While Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic member of the Danish parliament, added: “Most people don’t want it.
“I think some people find it quite disrespectful. And the way it has been done, and just the fact that you’re saying that you can buy another country.”
French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot also weighed in on the matter, saying on Wednesday that the European Union would not let “other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders, whoever they are”.
“If you’re asking me whether I think the United States will invade Greenland, my answer is no. But have we entered into a period of time when it is survival of the fittest? Then my answer is yes,” Mr Barrot said.
Why does Trump want the Panama Canal?
The Panama Canal is a waterway that connects the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean. It acts as a shortcut route, saving time and costs for transporting goods, according to the Embassy of Panama website.
Under the Jimmy Carter administration, control of the canal was handed from the US to Panama in 1979, with the US ending its joint partnership in controlling the strategic waterway in 1999.
It is now administered by the Panama Canal Authority, an autonomous government entity, although a Hong Kong-based contractor operates two ports connected to it, NBC reported.
Mr Trump has claimed that the US is being treated unfairly when it is “overcharged” higher rates for its ships to sail the canal than those of other countries.
He claimed that Panama is in “violation” of a deal with the US and that “China is basically taking it over”.
“We gave the Panama Canal to Panama. We didn’t give it to China,” Mr Trump said on Tuesday. “They’ve abused that gift.”
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Trump takes dig at Jimmy Carter on Panama Canal
Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino denied in a video statement last month that China has influence over the canal and shot down the idea of the US taking back authority over it.
“Every square meter of the canal belongs to Panama and will continue to be so,” he said.
Could Trump actually do it?
The incoming president has offered few details on how he might carry out his plans to grow the US footprint, even as he promised throughout the news conference to return the country to a “golden age” of improved national security and “common sense”.
If Greenland becomes independent, it could choose to become associated with the US.
One option could be to form a so-called “free association” pact with America, similar to the status of Pacific island nations Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.
Mr Trump has also suggested he would impose tariffs on Denmark if it resists his offer to purchase the island.
This could make things difficult for Danish companies, particularly drugmakers like Novo Nordisk, which sells the weight loss drug Wegovy and the type 2 diabetes medicine Ozempic, according to investment magazine Barron’s.
Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, told the magazine that the Trump administration could tailor specific tariffs to target products made by Danish companies regardless of where they are manufactured.