We were sitting on the back of his Trump-branded pick-up truck earlier this week when he made the prediction.
“I think that’s the only thing that’s going to bring America back together after this election if we lose.”
Civil war? When I moved to America a year ago, I recall people raising this fear. I remember thinking they were mad. How could anyone possibly believe the ‘world’s greatest democracy’, as it’s sometimes fondly described, could be heading for civil war?
Image: Mark Stone talks to Zach Scherer and Corey Check
I’ve reported from numerous failed or failing states over the years. It seemed nonsensical to suggest that the United States of America could be among them.
Well, a year on, my view is shifting and I am profoundly concerned.
The armies and frontlines are not formed in the traditional sense. But make no mistake, there are armies and there are frontlines. The fault lines are alarmingly deep. It would be wrong to think America can just muddle its way through this inflection point in its history.
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Recent polling suggests that a growing number of Americans believe political violence is acceptable. Just last week the husband of the nation’s third most senior politician, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was attacked in their home. Police say she was the target.
On the same day as the attack, authorities warned that threats of violence against politicians nationwide had massively increased.
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The nation is bitterly divided and there is one thing causing this agitation – about a third of voting-age people in this country believe the 2020 election was stolen. They believe Donald Trump won.
Doubt sown into fabric of US society
If you spent the past two years thinking this was a fringe view peddled by a former president; a con which can now be dismissed as background noise, well think again.
Doubt has been sown into the fabric of American society. People have been duped. They are dismissing the institutions on which American democracy was built. They have been told not to trust their electoral process.
Back on the pick-up truck, Mr Scherer’s friend Corey Check was angry. These two young disciples of Mr Trump firmly believe the election was stolen by Joe Biden and the ‘woke radical left’.
“Everything. Everything is at stake. America is at stake. If we lose it, our country’s going to hell…” Mr Check said.
Image: This group of Republicans all thought Donald Trump was the rightful winner in 2020
Loyalists still believe Trump won
Rattled by their stark predictions, I sought out a different generation of Republicans hoping for a more measured, nuanced perspective.
Local campaigner Cindy Hilderbrand had invited me to meet a group of six friends and activists at the local Republican party headquarters.
My first question – how many of them thought that Mr Trump was the rightful winner in 2020? All their hands went up.
“Absolutely did win,” retired US Marine Paul Garcia said.
He was interrupted by another in the group, Cheryl Guenther: “… and it wasn’t just the election day shenanigans. It was everything leading up to that. The suppression of the news, the suppression of everything that happened, brought on by media. The media is nothing more than a Democrat arm that is helping suppress all of this information.”
To be clear, there is no evidence at all that the 2020 election was fraudulent. Audits, recounts and court cases in states across the land concluded that nothing had occurred which would have changed the result of the election. Mr Biden won by a wide margin.
Even Mr Trump’s closest aides and his own family have said he lost. Yet he persists and his loyalists believe him.
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Golfer Trump mocks White House successor Biden
Conspiracy theories spread faster than facts
Our conversation turns to the policy issues. On abortion, on crime, on drugs, on guns, on the economy, they all have perfectly legitimate conservative views. Broadly – abortion is wrong, crime and drugs are out of control, gun control is unconstitutional and the struggling economy is Mr Biden’s fault.
But here’s the problem. They believe they are failing to get their way on those policy issues not because a majority disagrees with them but because a minority stole the last election from them.
American society is siloed in echo chambers. They consume wildly partisan cable news, they believe nonsense on social media and dismiss factual reporting. Conspiracy theories spread faster than facts.
Image: ‘I think there’s a genuine threat to democracy,’ Ryan says
Threat to democracy ‘understated’
Not far away, at a rally for the local democratic party candidate, I got talking to a young Democratic Party voter, a man of similar age to Mr Scherer and Mr Check but poles apart in perspective.
Was this idea of a threat to democracy overstated, I asked.
“I think it might be understated. I think there’s a genuine threat to democracy in this country and it really scares the hell out of me,” Ryan told me.
“I don’t want to end up like what we’ve seen in Europe in the past. If we don’t learn from history, we’re doomed to repeat it and we need to uphold democracy to keep going, otherwise we are going to falter as well. I am worried.”
As America heads to the polls for this midterm take on the country’s direction, the anger and the division cannot be overstated.
Reflecting on all the conversations I have had, it’s jolting and bewildering.
There is so much going on; so many issues and there is absolutely no trust for the other side. There is anger and a sense of betrayal but I felt fear too. There is a real sense that Americans on all sides don’t know what comes next or how they will react to it.
Donald Trump has ordered the deployment of 300 National Guard members to Chicago, the latest in a string of cities where US troops have been sent.
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson confirmed the US president authorised the move, citing what she called “ongoing violent riots and lawlessness” that local leaders have not quelled.
“President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities,” Ms Jackson said.
Chicago is the latest city in the US where Mr Trump has authorised the deployment of US troops, as it follows similar orders for Los Angeles, Washington and Portland.
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What’s it like having the army on DC’s streets?
Democratic governor JB Pritzker branded the move unnecessary and “a manufactured performance – not a serious effort to protect public safety”.
The Illinois governor said in a statement: “This morning, the Trump administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will.
“It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.”
It comes as an attempt by the Trump administration to deploy the National Guard in Portland, Oregon, was temporarily blocked by a federal judge in a lawsuit brought by the state and city.
The plaintiffs said a deployment would violate the US constitution as well as a federal law that generally prohibits the military from being used to enforce domestic laws.
Mr Trump ordered the deployment of troops to “war-ravaged Portland” last week, authorising the use of “full force” if needed.
Donald Trump has said a ceasefire in Gaza will begin “immediately” after Hamas agrees to a new US plan to end the war.
The US president said Israel had “agreed to the initial withdrawal line” and “when Hamas confirms”, the ceasefire will start, Israeli hostages will be released and a prisoner exchange will begin.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said it would “create the conditions for the next phase of withdrawal, which will bring us close to the end of this 3,000-year catastrophe”.
Image: Pic: Reuters
It came as Hamas accused the Israeli government of lying about reducing its military operations, accusing it of continuing to “commit its horrific crimes and massacres” against Palestinians in Gaza, claiming 70 people had been killed by strikes since Saturday morning.
The group said it “exposes the false claims of the war criminal Netanyahu’s government regarding scaling back military operations against defenceless civilians”.
It comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he hopes to announce the release of all hostages from Gaza “in the coming days”.
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Hostage release could happen ‘in coming days’
Mr Netanyahu made the remarks as indirect talks with Hamas continue in Egypt on a new US plan to end the war.
Speaking after Hamas said it had accepted some elements of the plan, Mr Netanyahu said he had sent the delegation to Egypt “to finalise technical details”, adding that “our goal is to contain these negotiations to a timeframe of a few days”.
Donald Trump has welcomed Hamas’s statement, but on Saturday warned the group “must move quickly, or else all bets will be off”.
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Sky News witnesses Israeli offensive in Gaza City
Trump orders Israel to stop bombing Gaza
Earlier in the day, Israel’s army said the country’s leaders had instructed it to prepare for the first phase of the US plan to end the war in Gaza.
Israel has moved to a defensive-only position in Gaza and will not actively strike, one official said, adding that no forces have been removed from the territory.
It came hours after Mr Trump ordered Israel to stop bombing Gaza after Hamas said it accepted some elements of his plan.
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Are we at the ‘end game’ of the Gaza war?
What’s in the peace plan?
Mr Trump’s proposed plan to end the war has widespread international support and on Friday, Mr Netanyahu’s office said Israel was committed to bringing the conflict to an end.
Under the plan, Hamas would release the remaining 48 hostages, of which around 20 are believed to still be alive, within three days. It would also give up power in Gaza and disarm.
In return, Israel would end its offensive and withdraw from much of Gaza, as well as release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and allow an influx of humanitarian aid and eventual reconstruction.
Hamas has said it is willing to release the hostages and hand over power to other Palestinians, but argued other aspects of the plan require further consultations among Palestinians. Its statement did not address the issue of Hamas demilitarising, which is a key part of the deal.
Warning ‘extremists on both sides’ could sabotage peace plan
A group representing some families of hostages said the prospect of seeing their loved ones return “has never been closer” and they appealed to Mr Trump to keep pushing “with full force”.
They warned “extremists on both sides” would try to sabotage the plan.
The war began when Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.
Since then, at least 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count, but says women and children make up around half of the dead.
Donald Trump has said Hamas is ready for a “lasting peace” after the Palestinian militants agreed to release all remaining hostages, as he called on Israel to stop bombing Gaza.
The US leader was responding to a statement by Hamas on Friday in which the group committed to returning all remaining hostages in Gaza, dead and alive.
Hamas also said it wants to engage in negotiations to discuss further details of the president’s peace plan, including handing over “administration of the enclave to a Palestinian body of independent technocrats”.
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1:10
‘This is a very special day’
However, other aspects of the 20-point document, it warned, would require further consultation among Palestinians.
The Hamas statement came after Mr Trump warned he would unleash “all hell” if they did not respond to his peace plan, announced earlier this week, by Sunday.
Following the group’s response, the president said there was now a real chance of peace.
“I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE,” Mr Trump posted on Truth Social. “Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly!
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“Right now, it’s far too dangerous to do that. We are already in discussions on details to be worked out. This is not about Gaza alone, this is about long sought PEACE in the Middle East.”
In a video later posted on his social media platform, Mr Trump called it a “very special day” and said the end of the war was “very close”.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was prepared for the implementation of the “first stage” of Mr Trump’s plan, apparently in reference to the release of hostages.
Moshe Emilio Lavi, brother-in-law of Israeli hostage Omri Miran, told Sky News he “can’t wait” to see his family reunited.
“We’ve received necessary guarantees from President Trump and the wider international community and now we have to keep pressuring Hamas to ensure that they abide by the Trump framework, that they disarm and release all the hostages within the 72 hours the framework outlines.
“There should be no buts and no delays, there should be only a yes to President Trump’s vision to end the conflict and bring home all the remaining hostages.”
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2:36
Trump’s Sunday deadline threat
Starmer calls for ‘agreement without delay’
Sir Keir Starmer said Hamas’s partial acceptance of the peace plan was a “significant step forwards” and called for an “agreement without delay”.
The prime minister said Mr Trump’s efforts “have brought us closer to peace than ever before” and added: “There is now an opportunity to end the fighting, for the hostages to return home, and for humanitarian aid to reach those who so desperately need it.
“We call on all sides to implement the agreement without delay.”
He went on to say the UK was ready to support further negotiations and work “towards sustainable peace for Israelis and Palestinians alike”.
French President Emmanuel Macron said “the release of all hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza are within reach”, while a spokesperson for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged “all parties to seize the opportunity”.
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The breakthrough came just hours after Mr Trump had set the Sunday deadline to respond to his proposals, backed by the Arab nations.
The US president and the Israeli prime minister unveiled the peace plan at the White House on Monday.
Israel agreed to the terms, which include an immediate ceasefire; the release of all hostages; Hamas disarming; a guarantee no one will be forced to leave Gaza and a governing “peace panel” including Sir Tony Blair.
And on Friday, a statement from Hamas confirmed “its approval to release all prisoners of the occupation – whether alive or the remains of the deceased – according to the exchange framework included in President Trump’s proposal”.
Israel estimates 48 hostages remain in Gaza, 20 of whom are alive.
Hamas official says group will not disarm ‘before Israeli occupation ends’
The group also said it was ready to engage in negotiations through mediators and it appreciated “Arab, Islamic and international efforts, as well as the efforts of US President Donald Trump”.
But, Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera news the group would not disarm “before the Israeli occupation ends”.
Hamas acceptance – but with major caveats
By Celine Alkhaldi, Middle East producer
Hamas has issued a carefully worded response to Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal.
The group welcomed international efforts to end the fighting, agreed in principle to the release of all Israeli hostages, and said it is prepared to begin negotiations on the details of an agreement.
It also renewed its commitment to handing over administration of Gaza to a committee of Palestinian technocrats formed by national consensus and backed by Arab and Islamic states.
That position has been consistent for months and was not part of Mr Trump’s plan.
On wider questions, Hamas said decisions must be taken within a comprehensive Palestinian framework, leaving the most sensitive issues for future discussion.
The statement appears to accept parts of Mr Trump’s proposal, but in some areas it does not match its terms.
Hamas made no mention of disarmament, avoided any pledge to withdraw permanently from governing, and linked any hostage deal to a complete Israeli withdrawal.
Taken together, the response shows a willingness to engage on humanitarian and political steps already familiar from past proposals, while deferring the core disputes to a broader Palestinian process.
Hamas does not know where all hostages are
Sky News Middle East correspondent Adam Parsons said the “most important part” of the Hamas response was that it showed a willingness to do a deal.
“The peace plan could have died – Hamas could have rejected it – but it is still alive.”
He said there were still “huge obstacles” which would prevent outright acceptance though.
In spite of a pledge to release hostages, he said Hamas did not entirely know where all of them were – some were even being held by other groups.
Hamas’s support for a new government for Palestine was positive, he said, but the specification in the Hamas response that it should be purely Palestinian and not, as Mr Trump had proposed, a “panel” that included external representatives, would be problematic.