Wheat and other wholesale food costs have risen sharply after Russia withdraws from an export deal designed to ensure crucial supplies flow from war-torn Ukraine.
Wheat futures jumped almost 6% on Monday while corn rose more than 2% – reflecting renewed concerns around shortages that have dogged markets since Moscow’s decision to invade its neighbour in February.
Ukraine and Russia account for 30% of global wheat supplies.
A deal with Vladimir Putin’s government had been struck, via the United Nations, in July to allow shipments from Ukraine.
But Russia announced on Saturday that it would indefinitely suspend its participation in the export agreement, citing what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Crimea.
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Unmanned ships appear to attack Russian warships
Traders suggested that the decision would place at risk the delivery of hundreds of thousands of tonnes of wheat to Africa and the Middle East.
Ukrainian corn exports to Europe would also be hit, they said.
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A surge in commodity costs, partly due to economies getting back in gear following COVID disruption, intensified following Russia’s invasion.
Image: The Sierra Leone-flagged cargo ship Razoni, carrying Ukrainian grain, is seen in the Black Sea off Kilyos, near Istanbul
They have fed in to the global inflation problem as the cost of staple goods have risen to reflect higher wholesale prices.
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Record animal feed costs, for example, have forced up the prices for meat, eggs and dairy products.
The loss of Russian energy supplies to Europe, reflected in record bills for households and businesses, have also made the cost of producing goods more expensive.
The contract for December wheat delivery was up at $8.77 a bushel – a two-week-high, but still well down on the $13 peak in March.
Ukraine accused Russia of making an excuse for a prepared exit from the accord, which has seen almost 10 million tonnes of corn, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed and soy exported since the July accord.
Ukraine said that plans remained in place for the departure of 16 ships through the Black Sea on Monday.
France responded to Moscow’s move by suggesting other export options were explored.
It suggested shifting supplies via land through Poland or other friendly nations.
AJ Bell investment director, Russ Mould, said of the market moves: “Wheat prices are soaring off the back of the move on fears the breadbasket of Europe might be squeezed and this only adds to an existing set of inflationary pressures.
“Commodity prices, which had receded in relevance somewhat since the summer, are now back at the top of the agenda.
“It all adds up to an increasingly difficult tightrope for monetary policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic to walk as they look to bring inflation under control without doing too much economic damage in the process.”
Tesla’s board has signed off a $29bn (£21.8bn) share award to Elon Musk after a court blocked an earlier package worth almost double that sum.
The new award, which amounts to 96 million new shares, is not just about keeping the electric vehicle (EV) firm’s founder in the driving seat as chief executive.
The new stock will also bolster his voting power from a current level of 13%.
He and other shareholders have long argued that boosting his interest in the company is key to maintaining his focus after a foray into the trappings of political power at Donald Trump‘s side – a relationship that has now turned sour.
Musk is angry at the president’s tax cut and spending plans, known as the big beautiful bill. Tesla has also suffered a sales backlash as a result of Musk’s past association with Mr Trump and role in cutting federal government spending.
Image: Tesla’s Elon Musk is seen on stage during an event in Shanghai Pic: Reuters
The company is currently focused on the roll out of a new cheaper model in a bid to boost flagging sales and challenge steep competition, particularly from China.
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The headwinds have been made stronger as the Trump administration has cut support for EVs, with Musk admitting last month that it could lead to a “few rough quarters” for the company.
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Tesla is currently running trials of its self-driving software and revenues are not set to reflect the anticipated rollout until late next year.
Musk had been in line for a share award worth over $50bn back in 2018 – the biggest compensation package ever seen globally.
But the board’s decision was voided by a judge in Delaware following a protracted legal fight. There is still a continuing appeal process.
Earlier this year, Tesla said its board had formed a special committee to consider some compensation matters involving Musk, without disclosing details.
The special committee said in the filing on Monday: “While we recognize Elon’s business ventures, interests and other potential demands on his time and attention are extensive and wide-ranging… we are confident that this award will incentivize Elon to remain at Tesla”.
It added that if the Delaware courts fully reinstate the 2018 “performance award”, the new interim grant would either be forfeited or offset to ensure no “double dip”.
The new compensation package is subject to shareholder approval.
Banks will still most likely have to fork out over discretionary commissions – a type of commission for dealers that was linked to how high an interest rate they could get from customers.
The FCA, which banned the practice in 2021, is currently consulting on a redress scheme but the final bill is unlikely to exceed £18bn. Overall, the result has been better than expected for the banks.
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Car finance ruling explained
Lloyds, which owns the country’s largest car finance provider Black Horse, had set aside £1.2bn to cover compensation payouts.
Following the judgment, the bank said it “currently believes that if there is any change to the provision, it is unlikely to be material in the context of the group”.
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‘Don’t use a claims management firm’
The judgment released some of the anxiety that has been weighing over the Bank’s share price.
Jonathan Pierce, banking analyst at Jefferies, said the FCA’s prediction was “consistent with our estimates, and most importantly, we think it largely de-risks Lloyds’ shares from the ‘motor issue'”.
Bank stocks have responded robustly to each twist and turn in this tale, sinking after the Court of Appeal turned against them and jumping (as much as 8% in the case of Close Brothers) when the Supreme Court allowed the appeal hearing.
Concerns about this volatility motivated the Supreme Court to deliver its judgment late in the afternoon so that traders would have time to absorb the news.
Thousands of motorists who bought cars on finance before 2021 could be set for payouts as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has said it will consult on a compensation scheme.
In a statement released on Sunday, the FCA said its review of the past use of motor finance “has shown that many firms were not complying with the law or our disclosure rules that were in force when they sold loans to consumers”.
“Where consumers have lost out, they should be appropriately compensated in an orderly, consistent and efficient way,” the statement continued.
The FCA said it estimates the cost of any scheme, including compensation and administrative costs, to be no lower than £9bn – adding that a total cost of £13.5bn is “more plausible”.
It is unclear how many people could be eligible for a pay-out. The authority estimates most individuals will probably receive less than £950 in compensation.
The consultation will be published by early October and any scheme will be finalised in time for people to start receiving compensation next year.
What motorists should do next
The FCA says you may be affected if you bought a car under a finance scheme, including hire purchase agreements, before 28 January 2021.
Anyone who has already complained does not need to do anything.
The authority added: “Consumers concerned that they were not told about commission, and who think they may have paid too much for the finance, should complain now.”
Its website advises drivers to complain to their finance provider first.
If you’re unhappy with the response, you can then contact the Financial Ombudsman.
The FCA has said any compensation scheme will be easy to participate in, without drivers needing to use a claims management company or law firm.
It has warned motorists that doing so could end up costing you 30% of any compensation in fees.
The announcement comes after the Supreme Court ruled on a separate, but similar, case on Friday.
The court overturned a ruling that would have meant millions of motorists could have been due compensation over “secret” commission payments made to car dealers as part of finance arrangements.
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Car finance scandal explained
The FCA’s case concerns discretionary commission arrangements (DCAs) – a practice banned in 2021.
Under these arrangements, brokers and dealers increased the amount of interest they earned without telling buyers and received more commission for it. This is said to have then incentivised sellers to maximise interest rates.
In light of the Supreme Court’s judgment, any compensation scheme could also cover non-discretionary commission arrangements, the FCA has said. These arrangements are ones where the buyer’s interest rate did not impact the dealer’s commission.
This is because part of the court’s ruling “makes clear that non-disclosure of other facts relating to the commission can make the relationship [between a salesperson and buyer] unfair,” it said.
It was previously estimated that about 40% of car finance deals included DCAs while 99% involved a commission payment to a broker.
Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the FCA, said: “It is clear that some firms have broken the law and our rules. It’s fair for their customers to be compensated.
“We also want to ensure that the market, relied on by millions each year, can continue to work well and consumers can get a fair deal.”