The 2025 MLB division series started with a bang on a four-game Saturday.

The Milwaukee Brewers rode a six-run first inning to a dominant win over the Chicago Cubs in the first game of the day. A second pair of division rivalries faced off as the Toronto Blue Jays slugged their way to an almost double-digit thumping of the New York Yankees. Then, in a highly anticipated NLDS showdown, Shohei Ohtani started his first career postseason game as the Los Angeles Dodgers took a late lead to secure a win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

In the final matchup of the night, the Detroit Tigers took the lead in the 11th inning to secure a thrilling Game 1 victory against the Seattle Mariners.

We’ve got you covered with all the action from Day 1, from the top moments to postgame takeaways from every matchup.

Key links: Mega-preview | Series outlooks | Bracket | Schedule

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Takeaways | Top Moments

Takeaways

Detroit leads series 1-0

The Tigers nearly collapsed at the end of the end of regular season, barely hung on to a playoff spot and then took two of three in Cleveland. Now, they’ve won Game 1 of the ALDS against Seattle — on the night before their ace, Tarik Skubal, takes the mound. On Saturday, Troy Melton, the rookie right-hander coming off a brutal showing in the wild-card round, provided four quality innings. Kerry Carpenter came up with a big two-run homer against an electric George Kirby. Zach McKinstry provided a two-out, run-scoring single in the 11th inning. And, in the end, Keider Montero retired the top of the Mariners’ order to secure the victory, continuing a dominant effort from basically the entire Detroit bullpen. Keep counting out the Tigers all you want; they keep finding a way. — Alden Gonzalez

Los Angeles leads series 1-0

The Dodgers were reeling. Down 3-0, facing Cristopher Sanchez, at the house of horrors that is Citizens Bank Park, they were at risk of dropping Game 1 against Philadelphia. Then, Enrique Hernández whacked a two-run double that helped chase Sanchez. And Teoscar Hernandez followed with a three-run, opposite-field home run off reliever Matt Strahm. And with Tyler Glasnow, Alex Vesia and Roki Sasaki throwing three scoreless innings, the Dodgers took Game 1 on the strength of their depth more than their stars showing out. Los Angeles showed last October that its depth is as much a hallmark as its stars. As this series continues with the Dodgers having home-field advantage after securing a win on the road, the Phillies know the challenge ahead: There is no such thing as a safe lead against Los Angeles. — Jeff Passan

Toronto leads series 1-0

Add Saturday’s sixth inning to the vault of Aaron Judge‘s October troubles. Toronto’s Kevin Gausman cruised through five scoreless innings, needing just 50 pitches to secure 15 outs, before finding trouble. Anthony Volpe drove a leadoff double, Austin Wells smacked a single, and Trent Grisham walked to load the bases for Judge. The Yankees’ superstar had singled off Gausman in the first inning for his fifth hit (all singles until that point) of this postseason, and Judge has more career home runs off Gausman than any other pitcher in his career. It was a prime opportunity to supply his first major moment in these playoffs. But Judge fell short, striking out on a 3-2 slider down and away that would’ve been ball four. Cody Bellinger followed with a walk to score a run, but that’s all the Yankees scored in the frame — and in the game — after Ben Rice popped out and Giancarlo Stanton struck out.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, didn’t waste their opportunities. They went 5-for-10 with runners in scoring position as they chased Luis Gil in the third inning and forced the Yankees to use five relievers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered. Alejandro Kirk homered twice. Rogers Centre, hosting its first postseason game since 2016, roared with each of the 10 runs scored. — Jorge Castillo

Milwaukee leads series 1-0

The decision to start Matthew Boyd on three days’ rest backfired on the Cubs so quickly that it’s impossible not to point to that choice as the turning point in Game 1.

Boyd wasn’t sharp down the stretch of the regular season, and after throwing 58 pitches on Tuesday, there were questions around whehter he could return to the mound so quickly and be effective. It was a head-scratching decision considering the team had a more-than-capable starter in Javier Assad ready to pitch after he was left off the wild-card roster. But Assad didn’t make the NLDS roster either — Cubs manager Craig Counsell called that a tough call — making the whole situation confusing. The Cubs blew this game long before Boyd lasted just two-thirds of an inning in Saturday’s opener. — Jesse Rogers

Top moments from Day 1

Tigers at Mariners

Detroit breaks 2-2 tie in the 11th to take the lead and win Game 1

ZACH MCKINSTRY GIVES THE @TIGERS THE LEAD IN THE 11TH! #ALDS pic.twitter.com/6OSA01Kngq

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025

“Julio” chants are loud in Seattle as J-Rod RBI ties the game

The “JULIO” chants are LOUD in Seattle 🫶#ALDS pic.twitter.com/okyudDvMNL

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025

One swing flips the game — and Tigers take the lead

THAT’S #POSTSEASON KERRY BONDS ‼️ pic.twitter.com/6XqWY3Wgiq

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) October 5, 2025

J-Rod gives Seattle crowd its first home playoff home run in 24 years

JULIOOOOOOOOO! 🔱#ALDS pic.twitter.com/WHIZhzk4nW

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025

What a special moment at T-Mobile Park

Sweet Lou!

Lou Piniella, who managed the @Mariners‘ 116-win 2001 campaign, tossed the ceremonial first pitch tonight at T-Mobile Park! pic.twitter.com/a4iu10KqHD

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025

Dodgers at Phillies

Roki Sasaki earns his first MLB save in Dodgers win

Roki Sasaki earns his first Major League save in #NLDS Game 1! pic.twitter.com/IXZlh5FHqU

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025

Teoscar Hernandez hits three-run blast to give L.A. its first lead

TEOSCAR HERNÁNDEZ!@DODGERS LEAD! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/XeygIPFj4t

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025

Dodgers get on the board thanks to a double from Enrique Hernandez

#Postseason Kiké has arrived 👀

The @Dodgers pull within a run! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/sOl62jaS35

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2025

J.T. Realmuto triples to give the Phillies an early lead

REAL-LY CLUTCH! pic.twitter.com/MNrSWIPfo6

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 4, 2025

Cristopher Sanchez strikes out the side to begin Game 1 — starting with Shohei Ohtani

Cristopher Sánchez strikes out Shohei Ohtani on 3 pitches!

We’re off and running in Philly 😤 #NLDS pic.twitter.com/X1icrRm6Zb

— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025

Yankees at Blue Jays

Jays players hyped after Game 1 win

GAME ONE = GAME WON! #WANTITALL pic.twitter.com/aQ6sK3px0I

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 5, 2025

Toronto piles on with four-run inning

Vladdy tacks on another!

FOUR-run inning for the @BlueJays! #ALDS pic.twitter.com/xTYYr0fKhW

— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025

Jays get out of zero-out, bases-loaded jam with just one run given up

The @BlueJays escape the jam with the lead intact! pic.twitter.com/N6j375R6BQ

— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025

Alejandro Kirk joins in on the HR fun

VAMOS, CAPI 🫡

Kirky’s first Postseason blast! #WANTITALL pic.twitter.com/Y2G19r5hvu

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 4, 2025

Jays bust out new postseason home run jacket

THE NEW POSTSEASON HOME RUN JACKET! #WANTITALL pic.twitter.com/VfJTDCoFkQ

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 4, 2025

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gives the Jays an early lead against Yankees

VLADDY GETS US STARTED 💥

His FIRST Postseason #PLAKATA! pic.twitter.com/3cEC3WCeE0

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 4, 2025

Cubs at Brewers

Milwaukee finishes off a dominant Game 1

The @Brewers take Game 1 in convincing fashion! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/Ta8mbNwqKL

— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025

Brewers bat around, put up six runs in first inning

JACKSON HAS TWO HITS IN THE FIRST INNING AND IT IS 6-1 https://t.co/6bayexVfob pic.twitter.com/uMZ98AspUX

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 4, 2025

Brewers answer in a hurry

THREE straight doubles and the @Brewers are in front! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/a7seA05Lj1

— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2025

Cubs come out swinging in Milwaukee

START US UP, MICHAEL. pic.twitter.com/gSBFRJBTRE

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) October 4, 2025

SEATTLE — Zach McKinstry came to bat against Seattle Mariners right-hander Carlos Vargas with two outs, the score tied and the winning run on second base in Saturday’s 11th inning. A right-handed hitter, the free-swinging Javier Baez, loomed on deck, a much better matchup for Vargas than the left-handed-hitting McKinstry. The Mariners could have elected to intentionally walk him with first base open.

“We talked about it,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “Obviously, Vargy gets the ball on the ground, and that’s what he does best, righty or lefty and, you know, he got the ball on the ground.”

That grounder bounced four times before finding the outfield grass at T-Mobile Park, hit just hard enough to evade a diving J.P. Crawford, plate Spencer Torkelson and send the Detroit Tigers — marked for dead with their season unraveling in epic fashion near the end of September — to a 3-2, extra-inning victory. After winning two of three in Cleveland to overcome the wild-card round, a Tigers team that has spent the last two weeks on the road has taken a 1-0 lead in the best-of-five American League Division Series.

A.J. Hinch, the fifth-year-manager, called these Tigers the “sum-of-the-parts team,” and it showed once again.

It began with Troy Melton, a rookie right-hander used mostly in relief this season, providing four quality innings. Seven relievers — including Keider Montero, a starting pitcher who was called on for a save — followed by holding the Mariners to one run in seven innings. In between, Kerry Carpenter hit a two-run homer and McKinstry provided the clutch single. Now, with ace Tarik Skubal lined up for Game 2, the Tigers have a chance to take a commanding lead in a series few saw them winning.

“It’s huge,” Carpenter said. “To get a win before the best pitcher in the world pitches is pretty special, and I feel like Skubal is made for these moments.”

The last time Melton took the ball, he recorded one out and was charged with four earned runs in the eighth inning of the second wild-card game on Wednesday. Hinch informed him via text on the plane ride to Seattle on Thursday night that he would start Game 1. He described the decision as a reflection of Melton’s stuff and poise, but really, with Skubal, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty already used this week, Hinch had few other options.

Melton responded with four innings of one-run ball in what amounted to his fifth major league start all year, allowing only a Julio Rodriguez solo homer.

“It was kind of normal for me,” Melton, 24, said. “My parents were here. I got dinner with them last night, breakfast with them today. It was like the same routine as when I pitched in college. That kind of made it a little bit more normal. Obviously this environment is a little bit different, and it means a little bit more than my college games did, but I tried to make it as normal as possible. Once I got out there, it was just about executing pitches.”

Mariners starter George Kirby didn’t just execute early; he dialed up his fastball, using the adrenaline of a home playoff start to throw his fastball consistently in the upper 90s early on, roughly two ticks faster than his season average. Kirby navigated some trouble but kept the Tigers scoreless through the first four innings while striking out eight.

In the fifth, he allowed a one-out single to Parker Meadows and got Gleyber Torres to ground out, bring up Meadows, the left-handed-hitting outfielder who was 4-for-10 with four home runs lifetime against him. Wilson had lefty Gabe Speier warming up in the bullpen, a move that would have prompted Hinch to pinch-hit with the right-handed-hitting Jahmai Jones. But Wilson decided to let Kirby face Carpenter a third time.

“It’s a tough one,” Wilson said, “and you do the best you can and try to take the information that you have and what you’re seeing. And we thought George continued to throw the ball pretty well there and still had pretty good stuff and a lot left in the tank.”

Kirby just missed inside with an 0-2 sinker. He then went to the sinker for a third straight time, but it traveled middle-up, about chest high, and Carpenter sent it 409 feet to give the Tigers a lead.

“I was seeing him well tonight, especially after that first at-bat,” Carpenter said. “I feel like I got my timing back a little bit. And I just wanted to make sure to get a good pitch to hit that at-bat, because they had a base open, and I didn’t know how they were going to pitch me. And so I felt like I was on time and had a good approach there.”

Rodriguez tied the game with an opposite-field single in the sixth, but the Mariners couldn’t do further damage in a half-inning that saw each of their first three hitters reach. Tyler Holton relieved a struggling Rafael Montero and recorded three quick outs. Tommy Kahnle, Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest followed by allowing one baserunner in four innings, setting up the game-winning sequence in the top of the 11th.

Spencer Torkelson drew a leadoff walk against Vargas, a lanky right-hander who can reach triple-digits. Wenceel Perez and Dillon Dingler struck out, but McKinstry turned on a first-pitch, 99.6-mph sinker near the middle of the zone and came up with a base-hit up the middle, deflating a sold-out crowd that has waited 24 years for the Mariners to win a home playoff game.

In the bottom half, Montero faced the top of the Mariners’ lineup and navigated it without much issue, allowing a two-out single to Rodriguez and then coming back to strike out Josh Naylor to record the first save of his pro career.

It was the realization of a dream.

“When I was in little league, they would use me like that,” Montero, a 25-year-old from Venezuela, said in Spanish, “and I always told my teammates in the minor leagues that my dream was to close out a game.”

Following his second touchdown of the night, Miami receiver CJ Daniels looked directly into the ESPN camera and sang the FSU war chant.

The U isn’t just back — so is its swagger.

Miami owns the state of Florida, having knocked down South Florida, Florida and Florida State, further cementing its case for the top team in the country. Penn State’s stunning loss at UCLA doesn’t help Oregon. Texas losing in The Swamp doesn’t help Ohio State.

Miami earning its first road win — against an FSU team that beat a now-surging Alabama — helped the Canes further legitimize what could be their first No. 1 ranking in the CFP era. The 13-member selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but this is the latest projection of what the group’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Canes have the best combination of eye test and résumé, with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida and now Florida State. The Canes earned their first road win of the season, and they did it against their in-state rival, officially claiming the unofficial state title. Miami also entered Week 6 ranked No. 10 in the country in total efficiency and No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric. The Canes are checking all of the boxes for the committee’s No. 1 team, including star power with quarterback Carson Beck and defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr.

Why they could be lower: Undefeated Ohio State won at Minnesota, but it’s hard to imagine the committee members giving the Buckeyes the nod for the top spot given Miami’s résumé — unless they truly believed Ohio State is more talented.

Need to know: That was likely Miami’s last chance to impress the selection committee against a ranked opponent. It won’t matter if the Canes continue to play like this. Miami can clinch a spot in the playoff if it wins the ACC — which it’s on track to do — but even a runner-up finish should cement a spot.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. Miami should win this game — it’s the more talented team — but it’s not an easy trip. And it will be the first time all season that Miami leaves its home state.

Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas is good — but not great — after Texas lost at Florida on Saturday. The Buckeyes’ place in the pecking order is less about one standout win and more about the steady consistency expected from a national title contender. They’ve won on the road against a decent Washington team that just rallied for a road win at Maryland, and at home against Texas and Minnesota. The committee doesn’t look just for wins against top-25 teams; it also values wins against opponents over .500, and Ohio State now has three Power 4 wins against such teams.

Why they could be higher: Miami hasn’t left its home state yet, and Ohio State entered this week No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency, No. 12 in offensive efficiency and No. 3 overall — ahead of the Canes in each category.

Need to know: Saturday’s game at Illinois suddenly looks more daunting than the Nov. 1 home game against Penn State. The reality is that Ohio State should win both, but Illinois is coming off back-to-back Big Ten wins against USC and Purdue, whereas the Nittany Lions were stunned at UCLA.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. Sound familiar? Ohio State has lost to its rival four straight times, and the Wolverines are starting to find their identity with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. Michigan beat Wisconsin on Saturday for its third straight win since losing in Week 2 at Oklahoma.

Why they could be here: The Ducks had a bye week to recover following their double-overtime road win at Penn State, and both teams above them won. Oregon’s win against the Nittany Lions was diminished following Penn State’s loss at winless UCLA, and it was also the Ducks’ first win against an FBS opponent above .500.

Why they could be higher: Oregon has been dominant against the weaker teams and found a way to beat Penn State on the road in a hostile whiteout environment. The committee could be more impressed with Oregon’s cross-country win against two-loss PSU than Ohio State’s home win against Texas now that both have two losses. The Ducks have two road wins compared with Miami’s one.

Need to know: If Oregon doesn’t beat Indiana next week, and it finishes 11-1, it would still be in the playoff, but it might not be in the Big Ten title game. Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season. If Ohio State is undefeated, and Indiana and Oregon are the league’s only other one-loss teams, IU would have the head-to-head tiebreaker (Penn State would have two losses, to Oregon and Ohio State). Because of the change in seeding this year, Oregon can still earn one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye even if it doesn’t win the Big Ten. This year, the top four seeds go to the committee’s top four teams — regardless of if they are conference champs.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This might be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face during the regular season following USC’s loss to Illinois last week.

Why they could be here: The Aggies have won three straight games against strong opponents, further proving that the Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame wasn’t an anomaly. Saturday’s win was against a Mississippi State team that has looked much improved from a year ago, and the Sept. 27 home win against Auburn is still against an SEC team above .500. The nonconference road win against the Irish, though, remains one of the best in the country and will continue to separate the Aggies as long as the Irish keep winning, which they did again on Saturday against Boise State.

Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has a case to be ranked above the Aggies because of its impressive performance in the win against LSU and its overall body of work, which includes three SEC wins and a win against Tulane.

Need to know: The Aggies entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top 25 opponent would have just a 20.1% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. This is the middle game in three straight road trips, and although LSU’s offense has been average, its defense will be one of the best the Aggies face this season.

Why they could be here: The Rebels had a bye week but earned their first statement win on Sept. 27 against LSU. They have now won four straight games against respectable opponents, including three SEC teams (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). The Sept. 20 win against Tulane will also be valued by the committee, as the Green Wave remain in contention for a playoff spot if they can win the American Conference. Overall, this is one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, but Ole Miss is also passing the eye test as a complete team.

Why they could be lower: Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 4-6, and Georgia State is 1-4 in the Sun Belt.

Need to know: The Rebels have one of the more winnable remaining SEC schedules among the contenders, with back-to-back trips to Georgia and Oklahoma their biggest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels also have something key to impressing the selection committee: two quarterbacks capable of starting. The play of backup quarterbacks is critical to the selection process (it kept undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023 but helped Ohio State in during the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is more than capable of leading a team toward an SEC title run.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels also have an Oct. 25 trip to Oklahoma, but it’s unclear if the Sooners will have injured starting quarterback John Mateer back by then (unlikely).

Why they could be here: The Tide beat Vanderbilt and continued to show measurable improvement since a season-opening loss at Florida State. Alabama has now earned back-to-back wins against ranked opponents, including on the road against Georgia. Because Florida State lost to Miami and now has two losses, the Noles’ season-opening win against Alabama will be less of a factor in the committee meeting room. Their records are no longer comparable, which opens the door for the committee members to disregard that tiebreaker in their protocol.

Why they could be higher: Every team ranked ahead of Alabama is undefeated, so if the committee is going to push the Tide ahead of one of them, it would be because it values wins against Georgia and Vandy more than it does some of the contenders above Alabama — which is possible. But FSU losing to Miami on Saturday doesn’t help the Tide’s case. A lot of it would depend on where the committee had Georgia, Vandy and FSU ranked.

Need to know: Heading into Saturday, Alabama had the best chance of any team in the SEC to reach the conference title game (53.4%) and win it (34.5%).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Missouri. The undefeated Tigers had a bye week to prepare, they’ll have home-field advantage, and they will be the third straight ranked opponent Alabama faces. The Tide at least get Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma at home.

Why they could be here: The undefeated Sooners beat Kent State with backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who was playing for injured starter John Mateer. Beating a 1-4 Mid-American team isn’t going to earn the Sooners any points with committee members, but the group will respect the play of OU’s backup quarterback and the fact the Sooners still left no doubt they were the better team. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan remains one of the better nonconference wins, as the Wolverines beat Wisconsin and have won three straight.

Why they could be higher: The Sooners are undefeated, and Alabama’s loss to Florida State took another hit on Saturday night when the Noles lost to the Canes. The win against Michigan is a nonconference boost Alabama doesn’t have. This will settle itself on the field on Nov. 15 in Tuscaloosa if it doesn’t before then.

Need to know: Six of Oklahoma’s next seven opponents are ranked, and it’s still unclear if Mateer will be cleared to play in time for Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game. The committee’s protocol requires consideration of factors such as injuries to key players. As long as Mateer is out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based on if they look like a top-12 team with Hawkins in the lineup. OU has some margin for error, and it has plenty of opportunities to compensate for a loss or two.

Toughest remaining game: Take your pick. The Sooners could be facing rival Texas on Saturday without Mateer, but the best team they’ll face right now looks like Ole Miss on Oct. 25. OU will have home-field advantage, but the Rebels might be the most complete and consistent team in the SEC.

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs did what they were expected to do: They beat an unranked Kentucky team that remains winless in SEC play. The Sept. 13 overtime win at Tennessee is the highlight of Georgia’s playoff résumé so far. The close loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 will keep the Dawgs behind the Tide in the ranking because of the head-to-head result as long as the records are comparable, which they still are after Alabama beat Vanderbilt on Saturday. That same tiebreaker will keep Georgia ahead of the Vols.

Why they could be lower: The committee could have the Hoosiers ranked higher because they’re undefeated. Wins against Austin Peay and Marshall also aren’t doing anything to help Georgia’s résumé.

Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games. The regular-season finale against rival Georgia Tech could impact seeding because the Yellow Jackets are in position to play for the ACC championship. If Georgia gets a win against the ACC champs or runner-up, Georgia could earn the higher seed at the Jackets’ expense because of the head-to-head result. That could mean the difference between a home game and a first-round bye.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels, who had a bye week before hosting Washington State on Oct. 11, should be undefeated heading into Athens.

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers had a bye week before a tricky trip to Oregon, and they’re coming off back-to-back Big Ten wins against Illinois and Iowa. The jaw-dropping performance in the 63-10 beatdown of the Illini is the most impressive win on IU’s résumé, but most of the teams ranked higher have defeated a more elite opponent. The committee members would know, though, that it’s notoriously difficult to win at Iowa.

Why they could be higher: Unlike several teams listed above, Indiana hasn’t lost — and for the most part, it has looked good in the process. The committee would also note that the Hoosiers entered Saturday No. 5 in defensive efficiency and No. 17 in offensive efficiency.

Need to know: Indiana doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, but it has a more difficult path to the playoff with trips to Oregon and Penn State. If the Hoosiers finish 10-2, they will be in a precarious playoff position because of their nonconference schedule (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Hoosiers could earn one of the best wins in the country, and the program could reach a new level with an upset on Saturday.

Why they could be here: The undefeated Red Raiders earned a road win against previously undefeated Houston, and they also have a convincing 34-10 road win against Utah. The committee would consider that Texas Tech asserted itself against two respectable conference opponents and did it on the road. The Red Raiders also got starting quarterback Behren Morton back on Saturday from injury. Texas Tech got a boost in the ranking this week at the expense of Penn State, which fell out entirely after its road loss to UCLA.

Why they could be lower: Kent State is 1-4, Oregon State is 0-6 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff is an FCS team. The committee also tracks opponents’ opponents — and Houston doesn’t have any impressive wins. Even though the Vols have one loss, the committee could deem them the better team and give them the edge for beating Syracuse and Mississippi State.

Need to know: Heading into Week 6, Texas Tech had the best chance of reaching the Big 12 title game (52.3%) and the best chance to win it (31.5%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. With Friday night’s win against West Virginia, BYU remains undefeated, leaving Texas Tech and BYU as the only Big 12 teams still undefeated overall.

Why they could be here: The Vols had a bye week, but the overtime road win at Mississippi State and the season-opening win against Syracuse are keeping them in contention right now. The 45-26 win against the Orange is better than some other contenders’ nonconference wins — and the committee will know it came against a healthy starting quarterback, Steve Angeli. With Angeli out and injured, though, Syracuse has fallen to 3-3. The overtime loss to Georgia is hardly a “bad loss,” but the Vols could use some true statement wins in the second half of the season to move into a safer spot.

Why they could be higher: The committee has ranked one-loss teams ahead of undefeated teams before, and it could simply be a matter of the group believing Tennessee has a better combination of wins and talent.

Need to know: Entering Week 6, ESPN’s FPI projected the Vols will win each of their remaining games except the Oct. 18 trip to Alabama. If that were to hold true, the Vols would have a strong case to return to the playoff at 10-2 but wouldn’t be a lock. What if Notre Dame finishes 10-2? They’d both have good losses, but the Vols might win the résumé battle. Eye test will matter, too.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide are getting better each week, but they will be coming home from a tough road trip to Mizzou. If Alabama loses that game, it will be under tremendous pressure against the Vols to avoid a third loss. If the Tide win, they will be bringing some major playoff momentum home.

Why they could be here: The committee would also probably consider undefeated Georgia Tech for this spot, but its protocol also asks it to compare common opponents without incentivizing margin of victory. Georgia Tech beat Clemson at home by three points, and LSU beat the Tigers at Clemson by a touchdown. The fact that LSU had to go on the road would give it a slight edge, but the committee would also know that Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, and the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.

Why they could be lower: LSU didn’t look much like a playoff team in its 24-19 loss at Ole Miss on Sept. 27. The offense struggled, and the defense gave up too many big plays. The committee could favor Georgia Tech more because it hasn’t lost and quarterback Haynes King has been one of the toughest in the country.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, LSU would get bumped out of the CFP during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the field.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. LSU is entering a season-defining stretch, with three of its next four games against ranked opponents. The Oct. 18 trip to Vandy won’t be easy, but Bama just wrote the blueprint to beat the Commodores. LSU gets Texas A&M at home.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami