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The Bank of England has raised the base rate of interest by 0.75 percentage points to 3% – the single biggest increase in more than three decades – and said that the UK is already in recession.

The Bank warned that the UK could face a protracted contraction in the coming years, with high inflation and the unemployment rate climbing to 6.5% – the highest since the financial crisis.

The length of its forecasted recession – eight successive quarters in which gross domestic product shrinks – would make it the most protracted since comparable records began – albeit less deep than most previous downturns, including those in 2008/2009 and the 1980s.

The economy would still be well below its 2022 size at the end of 2025.

Enormous uncertainty hangs over these forecasts, however: on the one hand they are based on market expectations for interest rates that were unusually high, which makes the economic outlook seem gloomier than it might be in practice.

On the other hand, they do not incorporate any of the expected spending cuts and tax rises the Treasury is considering imposing at its autumn statement on 17 November, which would worsen the outlook.

Rates may rise further

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Andrew Bailey, the Bank governor, told a news conference: “From where we stand now, we think inflation will begin to fall back from the middle of next year, probably quite sharply.

“To make sure that happens, Bank rate may have to go up further in the coming months… but by less than currently priced in financial markets.

“That’s important, because it means the rates on new fixed-term mortgages should not need to rise as they have done.”

Markets reacted to the gloomy update through further pressure on the pound.

It had slumped against a surging dollar earlier in the day but later fell further to $1.11 – a decline of more than two cents.

The recession forecast by the Bank is partly a consequence of higher energy prices, after the chancellor’s decision to curtail the length of the energy price guarantee (which limits the amount households can be charged per unit), and partly a consequence of the rising cost of borrowing.

According to Bank calculations, higher rates will mean the average household has a £3,000 annual increase in their mortgage costs, more than outweighing any government help with energy bills.

Biggest hike ever voted for

The Bank’s decision to lift borrowing costs by three-quarters of a percentage point is the single biggest increase since 1989, save for a brief two percentage point increase in 1992 that lasted less than 24 hours.

It is the biggest increase ever voted for by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Seven of the nine members voted for it. One member, Swati Dhingra, voted for a 0.5 percentage point increase and another, Silvana Tenreyro, voted for a 0.25 percentage point hike.

The minutes to the MPC’s meeting inserted a note of caution to money markets which, at the time of the Bank’s forecasting round, were expecting a peak of 5.25%, saying: “The majority of the Committee judged that should the economy evolve broadly in line with the latest Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank rate might be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets.”

The upshot is that notwithstanding the big increase in interest rates, back to their highest level since late 2008, the Bank is implying that they may not rise quite as far as many had expected.

Reacting to the rise the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he recognised this will be a worrying and difficult time for people families and businesses across UK, and made clear that economic stability and confidence are at heart of agenda. His number one priority is bringing down inflation, he added.

When asked did he agree with the Bank’s assessment that a long recession may be on the way he said the best thing the government can do it to show it is bringing down debt. There are no easy options and difficult choices on taxes and spending will need to be made.

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BP raises prospect of more job losses as AI drives efficiency

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BP raises prospect of more job losses as AI drives efficiency

BP has signalled an accelerated effort to bring down costs ahead, refusing to rule out further job losses as artificial intelligence (AI) technology helps drive efficiencies.

The company, which revealed in January that it was to axe almost 8,000 workers and contractors globally as part of a cost-cutting plan, said alongside its second quarter results that it was to review its portfolio of businesses and examine its cost base again.

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BP is under pressure to grow profitability and investor value through a shareholder-driven refocus on oil and gas revenues.

Just 24 hours earlier, the company revealed progress through its largest oil and gas discovery, off Brazil’s east coast, this century.

BP said it was exploring the creation of production facilities at the site.

It has made nine other exploration discoveries this year.

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BP’s share price has lagged those of rivals for many years – a trend that investors have blamed on the now-abandoned shift to renewable energy that began under former boss Bernard Looney.

BP interim CEO Murray Auchincloss, takes part in a panel during the ADIPEC, Oil and Energy exhibition and conference in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Monday Oct. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)
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BP boss Murray Auchincloss is facing shareholder pressure to grow profitability

His replacement, Murray Auchincloss, has reportedly come under shareholder pressure to slash costs further, with the Financial Times reporting on Monday that activist investor Elliott was leading that charge based on concerns over high contractor numbers.

Mr Auchincloss said on Tuesday that AI was playing a leading role in bolstering efficiency across the business.

In an interview with Sky’s US partner CNBC, he said: “We need to keep driving safely to be the very best in the sector we can be, and that’s why we’re focused on another review to try to drive us towards best in class… inside the sector, and technology plays a huge part in that.

“Just technology is moving so fast, we see tremendous opportunity in that space. So it’s good for all seasons to drive cost discipline and capital discipline into the business. And that’s what we’re focused on.”

When contacted by Sky News, a BP spokesperson suggested the company had no plans for further job losses this year and could not speculate beyond that ahead of the conclusions of the new cost review.

BP reported a second quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $2.4bn, down 14% on the same period last year but well ahead of analyst forecasts of $1.8bn. Much of the reduction was down to lower comparable oil and gas prices.

It moved to reward investors with a 4% dividend increase and maintained the pace of its share buyback programme at $750m for the quarter.

BP said it was making progress in driving shareholder value through both its operational return to oil and gas investment and cost reductions, which stood at $1.7bn over the six months.

Shares, up 3% over the year to date ahead of Tuesday’s open, were trading 2% higher in early dealing.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the company’s figures: “Production increases, strong results from trading activities, favourable tax rates, and better volumes and margins downstream all played their part.

“It’s also upping the ante when it comes to exploration and development, culminating in this week’s announcement of an oil find at the offshore Brazilian prospect Bumerangue.

“Its drilling rig intersected a staggering 500m of hydrocarbons. Taking into account the acreage of the block, it’s given BP the confidence to declare the largest discovery in 25 years.”

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British Land hires lawyers to scrutinise retail rescue deals

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British Land hires lawyers to scrutinise retail rescue deals

British Land, the FTSE 100 commercial property company, has hired lawyers to scrutinise rescue deals for the high street retailers Poundland and River Island.

Sky News has learnt that Hogan Lovells, the City law firm, has been instructed by British Land to seek further information on restructuring plans that the two chains say are necessary for their survival.

British Land owns 20 Poundland stores, 13 of which would see rents compromised under its restructuring plan, while it is River Island’s landlord at 22 shops – seven of which would be affected.

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Retail industry sources said that British Land had already struck deals to re-let some of the affected Poundland sites.

The company, which has a market capitalisation of ? and is one of Britain’s biggest commercial landlords, is understood to have abstained on the River Island restructuring plan vote.

The appointment of Hogan Lovells does not amount to a decision to formally challenge the restructurings, but that remains an option in both cases, according to industry sources.

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Hogan Lovells has been engaged on a string of previous challenges to retailers’ rescue deals on the basis that they unfairly compromised property-owners.

About 20,000 jobs would potentially be put at risk if Poundland and River Island were to collapse altogether.

Both face sanctions hearings in court this month which will determine whether their rescue deals can go ahead.

Even if the proposals are rubber-stamped, about 100 stores in aggregate across the two chains will be permanently closed.

British Land declined to comment.

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Former fund manager Woodford facing ban and £46m fine

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Former fund manager Woodford facing ban and £46m fine

The City watchdog has provisionally banned former star fund manager Neil Woodford and fined him and his former fund company almost £46m.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it planned to prevent Mr Woodford from holding senior manager roles and managing funds.

The watchdog also aimed to fine him £5.89m and Woodford Investment Management (WIM) £40m related to its collapse in 2019.

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Mr Woodford’s flagship fund, Woodford Equity Income (WEI), was wound down after investors tried to withdraw cash faster than the fund could pay out, amid concerns over its high exposure to illiquid and unquoted shares.

The FCA determined that Mr Woodford and the fund “made unreasonable and inappropriate investment decisions” between July 2018 and June 2019.

The fund’s sale of liquid assets and acquisition of illiquid ones meant WEI was unable to meet rules in place at the time, whereby investors should have been able to access their funds within four days.

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“WIM and Mr Woodford did not react appropriately as the fund’s value declined, its liquidity worsened and more investors withdrew their money,” the FCA said.

“The FCA has concluded that Mr Woodford held a defective and unreasonably narrow understanding of his responsibilities.”

Steve Smart, its joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight, added: “Being a leader in financial services comes with responsibilities as well as profile. Mr Woodford simply doesn’t accept he had any role in managing the liquidity of the fund.

“The very minimum investors should expect is those managing their money make sensible decisions and take their senior role seriously.

“Neither Neil Woodford nor Woodford Investment Management did so, putting at risk the money people had entrusted them with.”

Both Mr Woodford and WIM have referred the case to the Upper Tribunal for appeal.

He was yet to comment.

Mr Woodford was once considered the star stock picker of his generation.

He launched his own investment business after building up a reputation for delivering stellar returns while at Invesco Perpetual.

At its height in 2017, the Woodford Equity Income Fund had a value of over £10bn, but by the time of its suspension in June 2019, this had sunk to as low as £3.7bn.

While a redress scheme enabled investors to get some cash back, around 300,000 people lost money through the fund’s collapse.

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