The Bank of England has raised the base rate of interest by 0.75 percentage points to 3% – the single biggest increase in more than three decades – and said that the UK is already in recession.
The Bank warned that the UK could face a protracted contraction in the coming years, with high inflation and the unemployment rate climbing to 6.5% – the highest since the financial crisis.
The length of its forecasted recession – eight successive quarters in which gross domestic product shrinks – would make it the most protracted since comparable records began – albeit less deep than most previous downturns, including those in 2008/2009 and the 1980s.
The economy would still be well below its 2022 size at the end of 2025.
Enormous uncertainty hangs over these forecasts, however: on the one hand they are based on market expectations for interest rates that were unusually high, which makes the economic outlook seem gloomier than it might be in practice.
On the other hand, they do not incorporate any of the expected spending cuts and tax rises the Treasury is considering imposing at its autumn statement on 17 November, which would worsen the outlook.
Rates may rise further
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Andrew Bailey, the Bank governor, told a news conference: “From where we stand now, we think inflation will begin to fall back from the middle of next year, probably quite sharply.
“To make sure that happens, Bank rate may have to go up further in the coming months… but by less than currently priced in financial markets.
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“That’s important, because it means the rates on new fixed-term mortgages should not need to rise as they have done.”
Markets reacted to the gloomy update through further pressure on the pound.
It had slumped against a surging dollar earlier in the day but later fell further to $1.11 – a decline of more than two cents.
The recession forecast by the Bank is partly a consequence of higher energy prices, after the chancellor’s decision to curtail the length of the energy price guarantee (which limits the amount households can be charged per unit), and partly a consequence of the rising cost of borrowing.
According to Bank calculations, higher rates will mean the average household has a £3,000 annual increase in their mortgage costs, more than outweighing any government help with energy bills.
Biggest hike ever voted for
The Bank’s decision to lift borrowing costs by three-quarters of a percentage point is the single biggest increase since 1989, save for a brief two percentage point increase in 1992 that lasted less than 24 hours.
It is the biggest increase ever voted for by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Seven of the nine members voted for it. One member, Swati Dhingra, voted for a 0.5 percentage point increase and another, Silvana Tenreyro, voted for a 0.25 percentage point hike.
The minutes to the MPC’s meeting inserted a note of caution to money markets which, at the time of the Bank’s forecasting round, were expecting a peak of 5.25%, saying: “The majority of the Committee judged that should the economy evolve broadly in line with the latest Monetary Policy Report projections, further increases in Bank rate might be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets.”
The upshot is that notwithstanding the big increase in interest rates, back to their highest level since late 2008, the Bank is implying that they may not rise quite as far as many had expected.
Reacting to the rise the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he recognised this will be a worrying and difficult time for people families and businesses across UK, and made clear that economic stability and confidence are at heart of agenda. His number one priority is bringing down inflation, he added.
When asked did he agree with the Bank’s assessment that a long recession may be on the way he said the best thing the government can do it to show it is bringing down debt. There are no easy options and difficult choices on taxes and spending will need to be made.
The daughter of a Post Office victim has told Sky News she suffered “dark thoughts of suicide” in the years after her mother was accused of stealing.
Kate Burrows was 14 years old when her mother, Elaine Hood, was prosecuted and subsequently convicted in 2003.
The first public inquiry report on the Post Office – examining redress and the “human impact” of the scandal – is due to be published today.
“I’ve suffered with panic attacks from about 14, 15 years old, and I still have them to this day,” Kate said.
“I’ve been in and out of therapy for what feels like most of my adult life and it absolutely categorically goes back to [what happened].”
Image: Kate and Rebecca with their mother, Elaine
Kate, along with others, helped set up the charity Lost Chances, supporting the children of Post Office victims. She hopes the inquiry will recognise their suffering.
“It’s important that our voices are heard,” she said. “Not only within the report, but in law actually.
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“And then maybe that would be a deterrent for any future cover-ups, that it’s not just the one person it’s the whole family [affected].”
Her sister, Rebecca Richards, who was 18 when their mother was accused, described how an eating disorder “escalated” after what happened.
“When my mum was going through everything, my only control of that situation was what food I put in my body,” she said.
Image: Elaine with her husband
She also said that seeing her mother at court when she was convicted, would “stay with me forever”.
“The two investigators were sat in front of my dad and I, sniggering and saying ‘we’ve got this one’.
“To watch my mum in the docks handcuffed to a guard… not knowing if she was going to be coming home… that is the most standout memory for me.”
The sisters are hoping the inquiry findings will push Fujitsu into fulfilling a promise they made nearly a year ago – to try and help the children of victims.
Image: The siblings were teenagers when their mum was unfairly prosecuted
Last summer, Kate met with the European boss of the company, Paul Patterson, who said he would look at ways they could support Lost Chances.
Despite appearing at the inquiry in November last year and saying he would not “stay silent” on the issue, Kate said there has been little movement in terms of support.
“It’s very much a line of ‘we’re going to wait until the end of the inquiry report to decide’,” she said.
“But Mr Patterson met us in person, looked us in the eye, and we shared the most deeply personal stories and he said we will do something… they need to make a difference.”
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2024: Paula Vennells breaks down in tears
Fujitsu, who developed the faulty Horizon software, has said it is in discussions with the government regarding a contribution to compensation.
The inquiry will delve in detail into redress schemes, of which four exist, three controlled by the government and one by the Post Office.
Victims of the scandal say they are hoping Sir Wyn Williams, chair of the inquiry, will recommend that the government and the Post Office are removed from the redress schemes as thousands still wait for full and fair redress.
A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said they were “grateful” for the inquiry’s work, describing “the immeasurable suffering” victims endured and saying the government has “quadrupled the total amount paid to affected postmasters”, with more than £1bn having now been paid to thousands of claimants.
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
Donald Trump has warned that all goods from Japan and South Korea will face tariffs of 25% from 1 August.
The announcement, via his Truth Social platform, marks the restart of the threatened “liberation day” escalation that was paused in April, for 90 days, to allow for negotiations to take place with all US trading partners.
The president showed off copies of letters to the leaders of both Japan and South Korea informing them of the tariff rates. Those duties will come on top of sector-specific tariffs – such as 50% rates covering steel – already in force.
He warned the rates could be adjusted “upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your country”.
Country-specific tariffs had been due to take effect from Wednesday this week but Mr Trump had earlier revealed that nations would start to get letters instead, setting out the US position.
The letters sent to Japan and South Korea cited persistent trade imbalances for the rates and included the sentence: “We invite you to participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World, by far.”
He ended both letters by saying, “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The European Union – the biggest single US trading partner – is among those set to get a letter in the coming days.
Mr Trump has also threatened an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning itself with the “anti-American policies” of BRICS nations – those are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and whose members also include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
The UK, bar a massive shock U-turn, should be exempt.
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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?
The country was the first to be granted a trade deal, of sorts, in May and the Trump administration has claimed many others had been offering concessions since the clock ticked down to 9 July.
The UK is not expected to face any changes to its current 10% rate due to the trade truce, which came into effect last week.
While UK-made cars aerospace products face no duties under a new quota arrangement, it still remains to be seen whether 25% tariffs on UK-produced steel and aluminium will be cancelled.
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Can the UK avoid steel tariffs?
They could, conceivably, even be raised to 50%, as is currently the case for America’s other trading partners, because no agreement on eliminating the rate was reached when the government struck its deal in May.
It all amounts to more uncertainty for the UK steel sector.
A No 10 spokesman said on Monday: “Our work with the US continues to get this deal implemented as soon as possible.
“That will remove the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminium, making us the only country in the world to have tariffs removed on these products.
“The US agreed to remove tariffs on these products as part of our agreement on 8 May. It reiterated that again at the G7 last month. The discussions continue, and will continue to do so.”
China and Vietnam have also secured some US concessions.
The dollar strengthened but US stock markets lost ground in the wake of the letters to Japan and South Korea being made public, with the broad-based S&P 500 down by 1%.
Stock markets in both Japan and South Korea were closed for the day but US-traded shares of SK Telecom and LG Display were down 7.5% and 5.8% respectively.
Shares in Elon Musk’s Tesla have reversed sharply over renewed concerns about his focus on the company’s recovery as he plots against Donald Trump.
Shares in the electric car firm plunged by more than 7% at the start of trading on Wall Street – taking about $71bn (£52bn) off its market value.
The stock has often come under pressure since Musk started his association with the president, latterly helping bring down federal government costs through a new department known as DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency).
But it is now suffering as their political relationship has soured.
Musk has publicly opposed the so-called “big, beautiful bill” – Mr Trump’s flagship tax cut and spending plans that received Congressional approval last week – since he left his DOGE role.
Musk wrote in a post on his X platform on 30 June: “It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!”
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Once the bill was passed, he created a poll on X, asking people if they would want him to launch the America Party.
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Musk v Trump: ‘The Big, Beautiful Breakup’
He wrote on 4 July: “Independence Day is the perfect time to ask if you want independence from the two-party (some would say uniparty) system!”
The vote ended with 65.4% in favour of creating the party.
The formation of the America Party was announced the following day.
“By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it! When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.”
“Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom,” Musk posted.
Trump responded on his Truth Social account: “I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely ‘off the rails,’ essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks.
“He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States – The System seems not designed for them.”
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Trump threatens to ‘put DOGE’ on Musk
Trump has previously threatened to go after Tesla‘s government subsidies and contracts through the DOGE department to save “big” as their relationship deteriorated.
Such threats have also pressured the share price at Tesla.
It has suffered throughout Trump 2.0 and, in fact, has trended lower since last December – shortly after Mr Trump’s election win was confirmed.
The possibility of tariff hits to the business, followed by actual tariff disruption, along with a consumer and investor backlash against Musk’s previous DOGE role have contributed to a 35% decline on the December peak.
The very absence of Tesla’s CEO dragged on the shares.
Tesla sales suffered globally as the trade war ramped up due to the imposition of tariffs by a government he supported, until the public row between him and the president began in early June.
Musk had only just renewed his 100% focus on Tesla and his other business interests by that time.
Tesla sales were down during the presidential election campaign last year and continued to decline, on a quarterly basis, during the first half of 2025.
Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said of the company’s share price woes: “Investors are worried about two things – one is more Trump ire affecting subsidies and the other more importantly is a distracted Musk.
“Investors had cheered Musk stepping back from frontline politics but are now worried he’s going to sucked back in and take his eye off Tesla.”