Results have been coming in all night and our live maps and charts are continuing to update, showing the progress of both races.
When we started it seemed like the Democrats were likely to lose both the Senate and the House. Now, it looks like they could end up losing neither.
The latest estimate from NBC News has the Republicans winning 219 House seats compared with the Democrats’ 216, meaning they would still take control but with much less authority than the 40+ gains anticipated by some pollsters.
A margin for error is attached to that estimate as well, so what it truly means is that either party could still win.
And after the Democrats gained Pennsylvania’s Senate seat that race is also very much in the balance, with just a handful of states left to declare.
There has been the odd notable gain for the Republicans in certain seats, for example Jen Kiggans defeating January 6 investigator Elaine Luria in Virginia’s battleground 2nd district.
But much of the picture is muddied by the redistricting that has taken place since the 2020 election. Many of the seats listed as ‘gains’ are new districts entirely or representing geographies almost unrecognisable to ones they’ve replaced.
These gains, for both parties although benefiting the Republicans overall, don’t necessarily reflect the shifting of Americans’ political preferences but the adjustment of the American political map.
What is the House of Representatives and how are seats allocated?
Although the map above looks fairly well soaked-through in Republican red, that too can be misleading.
Each seat has a similar population to each other, but some are much smaller than others geographically. Usually that’s in city areas where there’s a denser population.
This map shows each district as the same size as each other, which can give a better sense of the balance of power across the country.
The race for the Senate
The balance of power in the Senate was always expected to be poised more delicately than the House, and with just five seats left to declare we’re not much closer to working out who will come out on top.
The Democrats made a potentially crucial gain in Pennsylvania, but are still battling tight defences in Nevada and Georgia which could turn the Senate to the Republicans. They only needed to make one gain in this election overall to take control.
The Democrat challenge in Wisconsin, a state won by Mr Biden in 2020, also appears to be closer than expected.
Including those seats which weren’t up for election this year, this is how the balance of the Senate will look until the 2024 election.
Why aren’t all states having elections?
What does this mean for Donald Trump?
The former president is yet to officially announce his intention to run for election again but is still the bookies’ favourite to win in 2024.
Although he is less prominent on social media these days he certainly hasn’t shied away from politics. Over the course of the campaign for these midterm elections he has issued endorsements to 174 of the 430 Republican candidates in the House, and tens more for would-be Republican Senators, Governors and Secretaries-of-State.
But initial results suggest that may have backfired. Republican House candidates backed by Mr Trump have actually performed worse than those who weren’t.
The Republican vote share in areas with a Trump-backed candidate has increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the 2020 election.
That’s far less than the 6.9 percentage point increase in areas where the local Republican candidate had no such endorsement.
Those endorsements, prized weapons in Republican primaries of recent months, appear to have proven less helpful in winning over Democrats and independent voters.
The difference is most striking in Democrat-held seats, but even in Republican areas Trump-endorsed candidates have fared relatively poorly.
This analysis is based on early results from fewer than half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least give us a glimpse of how things are going.
What does this election mean for America?
After the 2020 election it was the first time since Barack Obama’s first term that both chambers of Congress and the presidency had been in Democratic hands.
It is much easier for a president or a party to enact their policies if all three are held by the same party.
If Joe Biden’s Democrats lose control of one or both chambers they will lose the ability to set the agenda on the big issues dividing the country, things like gun control, the economy, abortion, immigration, and climate change.
The president’s parties do typically lose seats at the midterms – 28 on average – although the Democrats will of course be hoping to buck that trend as George W Bush last did in 2002, a year on from 9/11.
President Biden’s approval ratings have been at a historic low however, which made that look unlikely.
The Republicans needed to gain five seats from the 2020 result to take the House, and just one for the Senate.
Credits:
Reporters – Daniel Dunford and Ben van der Merwe Lead data engineer – Przemyslaw Pluta
Pope Francis, 88, had spent five weeks in Rome’s Gemelli hospital as he was treated by doctors for a life-threatening bout of double pneumonia.
The Pope, in what was a previously unannounced move, entered St Peter’s Square in a wheelchair shortly before noon local time at the end of the celebration of a mass for the Catholic Church’s Jubilee year.
Image: The pontiff arrives at the end of a mass. Pic: AP
In front of the main altar for the service, Francis waved to applauding crowds, before briefly talking.
Speaking in a frail voice while receiving oxygen via a small hose under his nose, he said: “Happy Sunday to everyone. Thank you so much.”
A message prepared by the Pope and released by the Vatican said he felt the “caring touch” of God.
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“On the day of the jubilee of the sick and the world of healthcare, I ask the Lord that this touch of his love may reach those who suffer and encourage those who care for them,” said the message.
“And I pray for doctors, nurses and health workers, who are not always helped to work in adequate conditions and are sometimes even victims of aggression.”
The IDF says it mistakenly identified a convoy of aid workers as a threat – following the emergence of a video which proved their ambulances were clearly marked when Israeli troops opened fire on them.
The bodies of 15 aid workers – including eight medics working for the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) – were found in a “mass grave” after the incident, according to the head of the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Jonathan Whittall.
The Israeli military originally claimed an investigation found the vehicles did not have any headlights or emergency signals and were therefore targeted as they looked “suspicious”.
But video footage obtained by the PRCS, and verified by Sky News, showed the ambulances and a fire vehicle clearly marked with flashing red lights.
In a briefing from the IDF, it said the ambulances arrived in the Tel Sultan neighbourhood in Rafah shortly after a Hamas police vehicle drove through.
Image: Palestinians mourning the medics after their bodies were recovered. Pic: Reuters
An IDF surveillance aircraft was watching the movement of the ambulances and notified troops on the ground. The IDF said it will not be releasing that footage.
When the ambulances arrived, the soldiers opened fire, thinking the medics were a threat, according to the IDF.
The soldiers were surprised by the convoy stopping on the road and several people getting out quickly and running, the IDF claimed, adding the soldiers were unaware the suspects were in fact unarmed medics.
An Israeli military official would not say how far away troops were when they fired on the vehicles.
The IDF acknowledged that its statement claiming that the ambulances had their lights off was incorrect, and was based on the testimony from the soldiers in the incident.
The newly emerged video footage showed that the ambulances were clearly identifiable and had their lights on, the IDF said.
The IDF added that there will be a re-investigation to look into this discrepancy.
Image: The clip is filmed through a vehicle windscreen – with three red light vehicles visible in front
Addressing the fact the aid workers’ bodies were buried in a mass grave, the IDF said in its briefing this is an approved and regular practice to prevent wild dogs and other animals from eating the corpses.
The IDF could not explain why the ambulances were also buried.
The IDF said six of the 15 people killed were linked to Hamas, but revealed no detail to support the claim.
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1:22
Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza
The newly emerged footage of the incident was discovered on a phone belonging to one of the workers who was killed, PRCS president Dr Younis Al Khatib said.
“His phone was found with his body and he recorded the whole event,” he said. “His last words before being shot, ‘Forgive me, mom. I just wanted to help people. I wanted to save lives’.”
Sky News used an aftermath video and satellite imagery to verify the location and timing of the newly emerged footage of the incident.
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2:43
Aid worker attacks increasing
It was filmed on 23 March north of Rafah and shows a convoy of marked ambulances and a fire-fighting vehicle travelling south along a road towards the city centre. All the vehicles visible in the convoy have their flashing lights on.
The footage was filmed early in the morning, with a satellite image seen by Sky News taken at 9.48am local time on the same day showing a group of vehicles bunched together off the road.
Contemplating the turmoil sown by the return of President Trump, nobody could deny that the results of leadership elections in major nations matter to the rest of the world.
Take just the members of the G7 – so-called rich, industrialised democracies. Italy elected Giorgia Meloni in 2022, confirming the rise of the far-right. She was not only Italy’s first female leader, she was also the first from a neo-fascist party since Mussolini.
Barring accidents, the next potentially transformative election in what used to be called the “Western alliance” will not be for two years.
France is due to elect a new president to succeed Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2027. The contest is already plagued by undercurrents of disruption, conflict between politicians and the law, and populism – similar to the fires burning elsewhere in the US and Europe.
This week French judges banned the frontrunner to win the presidency from running for office for the next five years. It looked as though they have knocked Marine Le Pen out of the race.
Nobody, least of all her, the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), knows what is going to happen next in French politics.
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In opinion polls just over half of the French population, between 54% and 57%, agreed that justice had run its course. “The law is the same for everyone,” President Macron declared.
After lengthy consideration by a tribunal of three judges, Le Pen and nine other former RN MEPs were found guilty of illegally siphoning off some €4.4m (£3.7m) of funds from the European Parliament for political operations in France, not for personal gain.
Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban and four years in prison, not to begin before the appeals process had been concluded. Even then that sentence in France would normally amount to two years’ house arrest wearing an ankle alarm.
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2:52
Marine Le Pen hits out at ban
French presidents, such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, have been convicted before. Controversy is flaring because Le Pen was given an extra punishment: the immediate ban on running for political office, starting this week.
Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, her second in command at RN, likened the ban to a “nuclear bomb” and a “political death penalty”. Speaking in L’Assemblee Nationale, of which she is still a member, Le Pen identified herself with Alexei Navalny, the dissident leader murdered in Russia, and Ekrem Imamoglu, the recently imprisoned Turkish opposition leader and mayor of Istanbul.
The ban was imposed at the discretion of the chief judge Benedicte de Perthuis, a former business consultant, Francois Bayrou, France’s Macronist prime minister admitted he was “troubled” by the verdict. Not surprisingly perhaps from him, since the prosecution is appealing against verdicts in a similar case of political embezzlement, in which Bayrou’s party was found guilty but he was acquitted, escaping any possibility of a ban.
Bayrou is expected to be a candidate for the presidency. Meanwhile, RN has the power to bring down his government since it is the largest party in the Assembly, with 37%, but was kept out of power by a coalition.
Image: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. File pic: AP
Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic rushed to support Marine Le Pen. Matteo Salvini in Italy, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Vladimir Putin‘s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov all denounced what they saw as a “violation of democratic norms”. Hungary’s Viktor Orban said on X “Je suis Marine Le Pen”. Orban’s post came on the same platform Donald Trump Jr posted that “JD Vance was right about everything”, a reference to the US vice president’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he claimed Europe was silencing populist opposition.
President Trump weighed in: “The Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech… it is the same ‘playbook’ that was used against me.”
Le Pen has called for bans and tough sentences for corrupt politicians from other parties. In France, mainstream commentators are accusing her of hypocrisy and “Trumpisme” for attacking the courts now.
They also allege, or rather hope, that RN’s anger is endangering Marine Le Pen’s drive to make her party respectable with her so-called “wear a neck-tie strategy”, designed to dispel the loutish, racist image of her father’s Front National.
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0:26
Le Pen leaves court after guilty verdict
For all the protests, justice and politics are now inextricably mixed in France. A ban from political campaigning would be pointless for most convicts, who have no political ambitions.
Any suggestion that Le Pen was just being treated like any other citizen was dispelled when it was announced that her appeal would be speeded up to take place next summer. The president of the court de cassation conceded: “Justice knows how to adjust to circumstances… an election deadline in this case.”
The ban could be lifted in time to give Le Pen a year to stand for the presidency. At this stage, a full acquittal seems unlikely, given the weight of evidence against RN. That is awkward for her and her party because, presumably, she would be campaigning while under house arrest.
The best course of action for 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s apparent successor, or “Dauphin”, would be to stick with her now. He would gain little if he split RN by insisting she is fatally wounded.
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If she loses her appeal in a year’s time, his loyalty and indignation would be likely to boost his candidacy. Conventional wisdom is that without a lift he may be slick, but is too callow and too square to stand a chance of becoming president in 2027.
The far right in France is no different from the far right elsewhere – prone to internal rivalries and in-fighting.
The craggy intellectual Eric Zemmour came fourth in the first round in the last presidential contest in 2022. Back then he had the support of Marion Marechal-Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s flighty niece. The two have since fallen out and may separately bid to carry the far-right torch.
Macron is riding high as an international statesman but he is unpopular at home. Even if he wanted to, he cannot stand again because of term limits.
His attempts to spawn an heir apparent have failed. The 34-year-old prime minister Gabriel Attal led Ensemble to crushing defeat in last year’s parliamentary elections.
Current prime minister Bayrou, and former prime minister Edouard Philippe, will probably make a bid for the centre-right vote. Bruno Retailleau, the trenchantly hardline interior minister, looks a stronger candidate for the Gaullist Les Republicains.
In the last presidential contest, Jean-Luc Melenchon of the hard-left La France Insoumise came third. He may fancy his chances of getting into the final two in 2027 against a right-wing candidate, unless the Socialists get it together. Or perhaps he may let through two finalists from the right and the extreme right.
It is a mess.
France and Europe need effective leadership from a French president. The unnecessary judicial suspension of Marine Le Pen’s candidacy has simply generated uncertainty. Her supporters are outraged and her foes no longer know who they are fighting against.
The French establishment thinks it will all blow over. Just as likely the controversy in France will strengthen the populist winds blowing across the continent and the US.