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Results have been coming in all night and our live maps and charts are continuing to update, showing the progress of both races.

When we started it seemed like the Democrats were likely to lose both the Senate and the House. Now, it looks like they could end up losing neither.

The latest estimate from NBC News has the Republicans winning 219 House seats compared with the Democrats’ 216, meaning they would still take control but with much less authority than the 40+ gains anticipated by some pollsters.

A margin for error is attached to that estimate as well, so what it truly means is that either party could still win.

And after the Democrats gained Pennsylvania’s Senate seat that race is also very much in the balance, with just a handful of states left to declare.

There has been the odd notable gain for the Republicans in certain seats, for example Jen Kiggans defeating January 6 investigator Elaine Luria in Virginia’s battleground 2nd district.

But much of the picture is muddied by the redistricting that has taken place since the 2020 election. Many of the seats listed as ‘gains’ are new districts entirely or representing geographies almost unrecognisable to ones they’ve replaced.

These gains, for both parties although benefiting the Republicans overall, don’t necessarily reflect the shifting of Americans’ political preferences but the adjustment of the American political map.

What is the House of Representatives and how are seats allocated?

Although the map above looks fairly well soaked-through in Republican red, that too can be misleading.

Each seat has a similar population to each other, but some are much smaller than others geographically. Usually that’s in city areas where there’s a denser population.

This map shows each district as the same size as each other, which can give a better sense of the balance of power across the country.

The race for the Senate

The balance of power in the Senate was always expected to be poised more delicately than the House, and with just five seats left to declare we’re not much closer to working out who will come out on top.

The Democrats made a potentially crucial gain in Pennsylvania, but are still battling tight defences in Nevada and Georgia which could turn the Senate to the Republicans. They only needed to make one gain in this election overall to take control.

The Democrat challenge in Wisconsin, a state won by Mr Biden in 2020, also appears to be closer than expected.

Including those seats which weren’t up for election this year, this is how the balance of the Senate will look until the 2024 election.

Why aren’t all states having elections?

What does this mean for Donald Trump?

The former president is yet to officially announce his intention to run for election again but is still the bookies’ favourite to win in 2024.

Although he is less prominent on social media these days he certainly hasn’t shied away from politics. Over the course of the campaign for these midterm elections he has issued endorsements to 174 of the 430 Republican candidates in the House, and tens more for would-be Republican Senators, Governors and Secretaries-of-State.

But initial results suggest that may have backfired. Republican House candidates backed by Mr Trump have actually performed worse than those who weren’t.

The Republican vote share in areas with a Trump-backed candidate has increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the 2020 election.

That’s far less than the 6.9 percentage point increase in areas where the local Republican candidate had no such endorsement.

Those endorsements, prized weapons in Republican primaries of recent months, appear to have proven less helpful in winning over Democrats and independent voters.

The difference is most striking in Democrat-held seats, but even in Republican areas Trump-endorsed candidates have fared relatively poorly.

This analysis is based on early results from fewer than half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least give us a glimpse of how things are going.

What does this election mean for America?

After the 2020 election it was the first time since Barack Obama’s first term that both chambers of Congress and the presidency had been in Democratic hands.

It is much easier for a president or a party to enact their policies if all three are held by the same party.

If Joe Biden’s Democrats lose control of one or both chambers they will lose the ability to set the agenda on the big issues dividing the country, things like gun control, the economy, abortion, immigration, and climate change.

The president’s parties do typically lose seats at the midterms – 28 on average – although the Democrats will of course be hoping to buck that trend as George W Bush last did in 2002, a year on from 9/11.

President Biden’s approval ratings have been at a historic low however, which made that look unlikely.

The Republicans needed to gain five seats from the 2020 result to take the House, and just one for the Senate.


Credits:

Reporters – Daniel Dunford and Ben van der Merwe
Lead data engineer – Przemyslaw Pluta

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What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal – and what challenges could lie ahead?

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What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal - and what challenges could lie ahead?

An Israeli delegation is heading to Qatar for indirect talks with Hamas on a possible hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza.

The development comes ahead of a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in Washington DC on Monday aimed at pushing forward peace efforts.

The US leader has been increasing pressure on the Israeli government and Hamas to secure a permanent ceasefire and an end to the 21-month-long war in Gaza.

Smoke rises in Gaza following an explosion. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Smoke rises in Gaza following an explosion. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump said on Tuesday on social media that Israel had agreed “to the necessary conditions to finalise” a deal on a truce.

And Hamas, which runs the coastal Palestinian territory, said on Friday it has responded to the US-backed proposal in a “positive spirit”.

More on Gaza

So what is in the plan?

The plan is for an initial 60-day ceasefire that would include a partial release of hostages held by the militant group in exchange for more humanitarian supplies being allowed into Gaza.

The proposed truce calls for talks on ending the war altogether.

The war in Gaza began after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage. Dozens of hostages have since been released or rescued by Israeli forces, while 50 remain in captivity, including about 30 who Israel believes are dead.

The proposal would reportedly see about half of the living hostages and about half of the dead hostages returned to Israel over 60 days, in five separate releases.

Eight living hostages would be freed on the first day and two released on the 50th day, according to an Arab diplomat from one of the mediating countries, it is reported.

Five dead hostages would be returned on the seventh day, five more on the 30th day and eight more on the 60th day.

That would leave 22 hostages still held in Gaza, 10 of them believed to be alive. It is not clear whether Israel or Hamas would determine who is to be released.

Hamas has sought guarantees that the initial truce would lead to a total end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

A Hamas official has said Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.

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Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’

Possible challenges ahead

And in a sign of the potential challenges still facing the two sides, a Palestinian official from a militant group allied with Hamas said concerns remained.

The concerns were over humanitarian aid, passage through the Rafah crossing in southern Israel to Egypt and clarity over a timetable for Israeli troop withdrawals.

Hamas’s “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.

But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”

The Times of Israel reported Hamas has proposed three amendments to the proposed framework.

According to a source, Hamas wants the agreement to say that talks on a permanent ceasefire will continue until an agreement is reached; that aid will fully resume through mechanisms backed by the United Nations and other international aid organisations; and that the IDF withdraws to positions it maintained before the collapse of the previous ceasefire in March.

Mr Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that changes sought by Hamas to the ceasefire proposal were “not acceptable to Israel”.

However, his office said the delegation would still fly to Qatar to “continue efforts to secure the return of our hostages based on the Qatari proposal that Israel agreed to”.

Read more:
‘Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site’
The man in the room acting as backchannel for Hamas in negotiations with US

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Another potential challenge is that Mr Netanyahu has repeatedly said Hamas must be disarmed, which is a demand the militant group has so far refused to discuss.

Hamas has said it is willing to free all the hostages in exchange for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops and an end to the war in Gaza.

Israel rejects that offer, saying it will agree to end the war if Hamas surrenders, disarms and goes into exile – something that the group refuses.

Previous negotiations have stalled over Hamas demands of guarantees that further negotiations would lead to the war’s end, while Mr Netanyahu has insisted Israel would resume fighting to ensure the group’s destruction.

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Defiance in Tehran as Khamenei makes appearance

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Defiance in Tehran as Khamenei makes appearance

They rose to their feet in ecstatic surprise, shouting “heydar, heydar” – a Shia victory chant.

This was the first public appearance of their supreme leader since Israel began attacking their country.

He emerged during evening prayers in his private compound. He said nothing but looked stern and resolute as he waved to the crowd.

He has spent the last weeks sequestered in a bunker, it is assumed, for his safety following numerous death threats from Israel and the US.

His re-emergence suggests a return to normality and a sense of defiance that we have witnessed here on the streets of Tehran too.

Earlier, we had filmed as men in black marched through the streets of the capital to the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, whipping their backs with metal flails.

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Defiance on streets of Tehran

This weekend they mark the Shia festival of Ashura as they have for 14 centuries. But this year has poignant significance for Iranians far more than most.

The devout remember the betrayal and death of Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday. We filmed men and women weeping as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.

The armies of the Caliph Yazid killed the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh-century Battle of Karbala.

Shiite Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates, of resistance against oppression and injustice.

But more so than ever in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.

The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here among people and officials.

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Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.

Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.

Death to Israel chants resounded outside the mosque in skies which were filled for 12 days with the sounds of Israeli jets. There is a renewed sense of defiance here.

One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”

A woman was dismissive about the US president. “I don’t think about Trump, nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”

Pictures on billboards nearby draw a line between Imam Hussein’s story and current events. The seventh-century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.

Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.

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Officially Iran is projecting defiance but not closing the door to diplomacy.

Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.

“We are very strong in defence and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times,” she said.

“We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”

But there is also a hint of conciliation: Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News that back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.

Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. That proved unfounded, the government is in control here.

For many Iranians, it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.

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‘Nobody likes Trump’: Sky News finds defiance on the streets of Tehran

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'Nobody likes Trump': Sky News finds defiance on the streets of Tehran

To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.

It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.

But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.

The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.

The Shia commemoration of Ashura in Tehran, 2025
Image:
Iranians gather ahead of Ashura

The Shia commemoration of Ashura in Tehran, 2025

We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.

The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.

More on Iran

Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.

The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.

The Shia commemoration of Ashura in Tehran, 2025
Image:
Men and women weeped as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine

Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.

Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.

“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.

There is a renewed sense of defiance here.

One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”

I don't think about Trump. Nobody likes him," one woman tells Sky News
Image:
‘I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him,’ one woman tells Sky News

A woman was dismissive about the US president.

“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”

Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.

The Shia commemoration of Ashura
The billboard illustrates the 7th century imam on horseback alongside missiles and drones from the present day

Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.

Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.

Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.

“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”

Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again
Image:
Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani said it would be a mistake for Israel to attack again

But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.

Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.

For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.

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