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Results have been coming in all night and our live maps and charts are continuing to update, showing the progress of both races.

When we started it seemed like the Democrats were likely to lose both the Senate and the House. Now, it looks like they could end up losing neither.

The latest estimate from NBC News has the Republicans winning 219 House seats compared with the Democrats’ 216, meaning they would still take control but with much less authority than the 40+ gains anticipated by some pollsters.

A margin for error is attached to that estimate as well, so what it truly means is that either party could still win.

And after the Democrats gained Pennsylvania’s Senate seat that race is also very much in the balance, with just a handful of states left to declare.

There has been the odd notable gain for the Republicans in certain seats, for example Jen Kiggans defeating January 6 investigator Elaine Luria in Virginia’s battleground 2nd district.

But much of the picture is muddied by the redistricting that has taken place since the 2020 election. Many of the seats listed as ‘gains’ are new districts entirely or representing geographies almost unrecognisable to ones they’ve replaced.

These gains, for both parties although benefiting the Republicans overall, don’t necessarily reflect the shifting of Americans’ political preferences but the adjustment of the American political map.

What is the House of Representatives and how are seats allocated?

Although the map above looks fairly well soaked-through in Republican red, that too can be misleading.

Each seat has a similar population to each other, but some are much smaller than others geographically. Usually that’s in city areas where there’s a denser population.

This map shows each district as the same size as each other, which can give a better sense of the balance of power across the country.

The race for the Senate

The balance of power in the Senate was always expected to be poised more delicately than the House, and with just five seats left to declare we’re not much closer to working out who will come out on top.

The Democrats made a potentially crucial gain in Pennsylvania, but are still battling tight defences in Nevada and Georgia which could turn the Senate to the Republicans. They only needed to make one gain in this election overall to take control.

The Democrat challenge in Wisconsin, a state won by Mr Biden in 2020, also appears to be closer than expected.

Including those seats which weren’t up for election this year, this is how the balance of the Senate will look until the 2024 election.

Why aren’t all states having elections?

What does this mean for Donald Trump?

The former president is yet to officially announce his intention to run for election again but is still the bookies’ favourite to win in 2024.

Although he is less prominent on social media these days he certainly hasn’t shied away from politics. Over the course of the campaign for these midterm elections he has issued endorsements to 174 of the 430 Republican candidates in the House, and tens more for would-be Republican Senators, Governors and Secretaries-of-State.

But initial results suggest that may have backfired. Republican House candidates backed by Mr Trump have actually performed worse than those who weren’t.

The Republican vote share in areas with a Trump-backed candidate has increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the 2020 election.

That’s far less than the 6.9 percentage point increase in areas where the local Republican candidate had no such endorsement.

Those endorsements, prized weapons in Republican primaries of recent months, appear to have proven less helpful in winning over Democrats and independent voters.

The difference is most striking in Democrat-held seats, but even in Republican areas Trump-endorsed candidates have fared relatively poorly.

This analysis is based on early results from fewer than half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least give us a glimpse of how things are going.

What does this election mean for America?

After the 2020 election it was the first time since Barack Obama’s first term that both chambers of Congress and the presidency had been in Democratic hands.

It is much easier for a president or a party to enact their policies if all three are held by the same party.

If Joe Biden’s Democrats lose control of one or both chambers they will lose the ability to set the agenda on the big issues dividing the country, things like gun control, the economy, abortion, immigration, and climate change.

The president’s parties do typically lose seats at the midterms – 28 on average – although the Democrats will of course be hoping to buck that trend as George W Bush last did in 2002, a year on from 9/11.

President Biden’s approval ratings have been at a historic low however, which made that look unlikely.

The Republicans needed to gain five seats from the 2020 result to take the House, and just one for the Senate.


Credits:

Reporters – Daniel Dunford and Ben van der Merwe
Lead data engineer – Przemyslaw Pluta

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Donald Trump refuses to rule out military force over Panama Canal and Greenland – as he warns NATO to spend more

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Donald Trump refuses to rule out military force over Panama Canal and Greenland - as he warns NATO to spend more

US president-elect Donald Trump has refused to rule out military or economic action to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland – as he said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state.

Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Mr Trump made a series of sweeping claims on what his policies could look like when he takes office on 20 January.

He said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state, while he also declared US control of Greenland and the Panama Canal as vital to American national security.

The 78-year-old Republican also spoke of relations with Canada, as well as addressing his position on the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

Sky News takes a look at some of the key claims brought up during the conference.

NATO

Mr Trump claimed “nobody knows more about NATO than I do”, before adding: “If it weren’t for me, NATO wouldn’t exist right now.

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“I raised from countries that weren’t paying their bills, over $680bn. I saved NATO, but NATO is taking advantage of us.”

The president-elect also said members of NATO should be contributing 5% of their GDPs (gross domestic product) to defence spending – the previous target has been 2%.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump makes remarks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. January 7, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
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Donald Trump speaking at Mar-a-Lago. Pic: Reuters

Greenland and Panama Canal

Asked if he can reassure the world he won’t resort to military action or economic coercion in trying to get control of the areas, he said: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.”

“But, I can say this, we need them for economic security.”

He didn’t add any further detail around Greenland – which he has recently suggested the US should own or control – but he said the Panama Canal “was built for our military”.

He said the canal was “vital” to the country and China was “operating” it.

Mr Trump criticised the late Jimmy Carter for his role in signing over the Panama Canal to Panama during his presidency, saying it’s “a disgrace what took place” and “Jimmy Carter gave it to them for one dollar.”

Canada

A day after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, Mr Trump said he believed the US’ northern neighbour should become the 51st US state.

He mocked Mr Trudeau by calling him “governor” rather than prime minister.

He argued the US and Canada combined would amount to an “economic force” that would “really be something”.

“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Mr Trudeau responded.

Israel-Hamas war

Israel has been waging a 15-month war on the militant group ruling Gaza, Hamas, since they launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October which saw 1,200 people massacred and about 250 taken hostage, many of whom remain in captivity.

Mr Trump said: “If those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.”

Nearly 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza, according to Hamas-run health officials in the enclave.

Analysis: Trump’s warning risks becoming less threatening

Ukraine war

Referring to Russia’s ongoing full-scale war against its smaller neighbour, Mr Trump said a “big part of the problem” was Russian President Vladimir Putin had said for many years he did not want Ukraine involved with NATO.

“Somewhere along the line [outgoing President Joe] Biden said you can join NATO,” he said.

“Well, then Russia has NATO right on their doorstep.

“When I heard the way Biden was negotiating I said ‘you are going to end up in a war’ and it turned out to be a war.”

Asked if he would commit to keep supporting Ukraine during negotiations with Moscow, Mr Trump quipped: “Well, I wouldn’t tell you if that were the case.”

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Mr Trump win’s certified by rival Kamala Harris

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Offshore drilling

Mr Trump repeated one of his favourite phrases from the campaign trail, “drill, baby, drill”.

On Monday, outgoing President Biden moved to ban new offshore oil and gas developments along most US coastlines.

But Mr Trump, who has vowed to boost domestic energy production, said he will undo it.

“We’re going to be drilling a lot of other locations,” he said.

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Donald Trump’s threats could be a make-or-break test for NATO

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Donald Trump's threats could be a make-or-break test for NATO

The public articulation by Donald Trump of a new desired target for NATO allies to spend 5% of national income on defence will surely plunge governments across Europe into crisis mode – not least here in the UK.

Britain presents itself to the world and in particular to the United States as the biggest defence spender in Europe and NATO’s most powerful European military.

Yet Sir Keir Starmer has not even managed to set out a timeline for what he describes as a “path to 2.5%” of GDP being invested in his armed forces, up from just over 2% today.

If the prime minister merely sticks to this pledge, he risks being viewed by the new administration as woefully unambitious and not credible on defence.

Then there is the extraordinary threat by Mr Trump to seize Greenland by force if necessary, even though this valuable piece of territory belongs to a fellow NATO ally in the form of Denmark.

The move – were it to happen – would demonstrate the limitations of the alliance’s Article 5 founding principle.

It is supposed to guarantee that all allies would come to the defence of any member state which is under armed attack.

But what about if the aggressor is also meant to be an ally?

The president-elect also appeared to dash any hope of Ukraine being offered membership to the alliance anytime soon – a core request of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Instead, Mr Trump sounded sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s absolute opposition to such a move.

He said he would meet the Russian president after taking office – reiterating a promise to end the war in Ukraine, though again without spelling out how.

The outbursts came in a lengthy press conference on Tuesday that marked the starting shot in what could be a make-or-break test for NATO – an alliance of transatlantic friends that rose from the ashes of the Second World War.

Read more:
Trump speaks on Canada, Gaza and reversing Biden ban
A guide to everything about Trump’s inauguration

European members of NATO, as well as Canada, already took a battering the last time Mr Trump was in the White House – and rightly so.

The US had for far too long largely bankrolled the security of Europe, while the majority of its allies – including the UK – reaped the so-called “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, swapping expenditure on defence for peacetime priorities such as economic growth, healthcare and education.

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From 2019: Was this the most awkward NATO summit ever?

Mr Trump made clear during his first term his displeasure about what he saw as Washington being ripped off and vowed to make Europe take its fair share of the burden.

He even warned member states that the US would not come to the aid of an ally that was not hitting at the very least a minimum NATO spending targeting of 2% of GDP – something they had previously pledged to do by 2024 but were slow to deliver on.

Such language electrified allies in a way that even Putin’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea and attacks in the east of the country, had not.

Yet, with the threat from Russia growing in the wake of its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with conflict in the Middle East and the challenge posed by China, it has become clear that this heightened level of expenditure by allies was still far short of what is required to rebuild militaries across Europe that have been hollowed out over decades.

Read more from Sky News:
Trump’s Gaza warning risks becoming less threatening
Trump asks court to dismiss hush money conviction

Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, set the stage for what is expected to be another push to ramp up investment when he delivered a landmark speech last month in which he called on allies to return to a “war mindset” and “turbocharge” defence spending.

He said this was to counter growing threats, but observers said it was also a pre-emptive response to the anticipated demands of the next Trump administration.

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‘Ukraine needs more arms, less talking’

Either way, it poses a huge challenge for all allies, in particular for Sir Keir Starmer.

He and Rachel Reeves face a choice: change course when it comes to their top priorities of economic growth, hospital waiting lists and new housing and instead invest more in defence or defy what will doubtless be growing demands from the United States to spend billions of pounds more on the UK armed forces – and maybe even leave the country in a position whereby the US would not come to its aid if attacked.

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Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused by US of committing genocide in Sudan war

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Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused by US of committing genocide in Sudan war

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allied militias are committing genocide in Sudan while waging war against the army for control of the country, Joe Biden’s US administration has determined – two weeks before leaving office.

In a statement sharing the designation on Tuesday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the RSF and its aligned militias had “systematically murdered men and boys – even infants – on an ethnic basis” and “deliberately targeted women and girls from certain ethnic groups for rape and other forms of brutal sexual violence”.

He announced that Washington would impose sanctions on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and seven RSF-owned companies located in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo
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Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo. File pic: AP

The UAE is credibly accused of backing and arming the RSF – something it has strenuously denied.

When reached for comment by Reuters, the RSF rejected these measures and said: “America previously punished the great African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela, which was wrong.

“Today, it is rewarding those who started the war by punishing (RSF leader) general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, which is also wrong.”

The RSF has been fighting Sudan’s army for territorial control of the country since war erupted in the capital, Khartoum, in April 2023.

The ensuing devastation has been described as the worst humanitarian crisis ever recorded – with over 11 million people forced out of their homes, tens of thousands dead, and 30 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

Sudan, Africa
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Sudan, Africa

In December 2023, Mr Blinken announced that both warring parties had committed war crimes, but that the RSF in particular had committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing.

He mentioned this precedent in this latest announcement, adding: “Today’s action is part of our continued efforts to promote accountability for all warring parties whose actions fuel this conflict.

“The United States does not support either side of this war, and these actions against Hemedti and the RSF do not signify support or favour for the SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces).

“Both belligerents bear responsibility for the violence and suffering in Sudan and lack the legitimacy to govern a future peaceful Sudan.”

Read more from Sky News:
Sudan’s history faces erasure
Farmers in Sudan on verge of mass starvation

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From November: RSF attacks farming villages leaving dozens dead

This comes twenty years after then US secretary of state Colin Powell described the conflict in Darfur, western Sudan, as a genocide in 2004.

Back then, RSF leader Hemedti was heading up a lesser-known Janjaweed militia that was carrying out state-sanctioned atrocities against civilians.

He was not held accountable then, and many wonder if this latest designation will have any impact on the actions of forces on the ground.

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