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Results have been coming in all night and our live maps and charts are continuing to update, showing the progress of both races.

When we started it seemed like the Democrats were likely to lose both the Senate and the House. Now, it looks like they could end up losing neither.

The latest estimate from NBC News has the Republicans winning 219 House seats compared with the Democrats’ 216, meaning they would still take control but with much less authority than the 40+ gains anticipated by some pollsters.

A margin for error is attached to that estimate as well, so what it truly means is that either party could still win.

And after the Democrats gained Pennsylvania’s Senate seat that race is also very much in the balance, with just a handful of states left to declare.

There has been the odd notable gain for the Republicans in certain seats, for example Jen Kiggans defeating January 6 investigator Elaine Luria in Virginia’s battleground 2nd district.

But much of the picture is muddied by the redistricting that has taken place since the 2020 election. Many of the seats listed as ‘gains’ are new districts entirely or representing geographies almost unrecognisable to ones they’ve replaced.

These gains, for both parties although benefiting the Republicans overall, don’t necessarily reflect the shifting of Americans’ political preferences but the adjustment of the American political map.

What is the House of Representatives and how are seats allocated?

Although the map above looks fairly well soaked-through in Republican red, that too can be misleading.

Each seat has a similar population to each other, but some are much smaller than others geographically. Usually that’s in city areas where there’s a denser population.

This map shows each district as the same size as each other, which can give a better sense of the balance of power across the country.

The race for the Senate

The balance of power in the Senate was always expected to be poised more delicately than the House, and with just five seats left to declare we’re not much closer to working out who will come out on top.

The Democrats made a potentially crucial gain in Pennsylvania, but are still battling tight defences in Nevada and Georgia which could turn the Senate to the Republicans. They only needed to make one gain in this election overall to take control.

The Democrat challenge in Wisconsin, a state won by Mr Biden in 2020, also appears to be closer than expected.

Including those seats which weren’t up for election this year, this is how the balance of the Senate will look until the 2024 election.

Why aren’t all states having elections?

What does this mean for Donald Trump?

The former president is yet to officially announce his intention to run for election again but is still the bookies’ favourite to win in 2024.

Although he is less prominent on social media these days he certainly hasn’t shied away from politics. Over the course of the campaign for these midterm elections he has issued endorsements to 174 of the 430 Republican candidates in the House, and tens more for would-be Republican Senators, Governors and Secretaries-of-State.

But initial results suggest that may have backfired. Republican House candidates backed by Mr Trump have actually performed worse than those who weren’t.

The Republican vote share in areas with a Trump-backed candidate has increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the 2020 election.

That’s far less than the 6.9 percentage point increase in areas where the local Republican candidate had no such endorsement.

Those endorsements, prized weapons in Republican primaries of recent months, appear to have proven less helpful in winning over Democrats and independent voters.

The difference is most striking in Democrat-held seats, but even in Republican areas Trump-endorsed candidates have fared relatively poorly.

This analysis is based on early results from fewer than half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least give us a glimpse of how things are going.

What does this election mean for America?

After the 2020 election it was the first time since Barack Obama’s first term that both chambers of Congress and the presidency had been in Democratic hands.

It is much easier for a president or a party to enact their policies if all three are held by the same party.

If Joe Biden’s Democrats lose control of one or both chambers they will lose the ability to set the agenda on the big issues dividing the country, things like gun control, the economy, abortion, immigration, and climate change.

The president’s parties do typically lose seats at the midterms – 28 on average – although the Democrats will of course be hoping to buck that trend as George W Bush last did in 2002, a year on from 9/11.

President Biden’s approval ratings have been at a historic low however, which made that look unlikely.

The Republicans needed to gain five seats from the 2020 result to take the House, and just one for the Senate.


Credits:

Reporters – Daniel Dunford and Ben van der Merwe
Lead data engineer – Przemyslaw Pluta

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China’s premier air show wows spectators – but the West won’t have liked seeing Russia’s jets

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China's premier air show wows spectators - but the West won't have liked seeing Russia's jets

Outgoing US President Joe Biden is set to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping today for what is likely to be his last time as US president.

The two leaders are expected to hold talks on the sidelines of a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in the Peruvian capital, Lima.

It comes against the backdrop of increasing tension in the US-China relationship with a potential trade war looming under a Trump presidency, several China hawks tapped for US cabinet positions and China’s growing status among global south countries as an emerging leader of an alternative world order.

This week China was focused on events in the southern city of Zhuhai.

First there was a car ramming attack at Zhuhai’s sports stadium which left 25 people dead. A shocking event that was heavily censored in China.

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What happened at Zhuhai sports centre?

Less than an hour’s drive away the country was holding its premier air show.

It was a military enthusiast’s dream, and not even intermittent rain could keep the crowds of tens of thousands of people away from relishing in the roar of jets in the skies above Zhuhai.

China’s fighter jet fleet

One of the main drawcards was China’s newest stealth fighter the J-35A. It will join the country’s J-20 in service for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).

A J-35A stealth aircraft flies during the exhibition. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A J-35A stealth aircraft flies during the exhibition. Pic: Reuters

The J-10C was China’s aerobatics star of the show. There were daily displays of its prowess in sky-high manoeuvres and formations that impressed onlookers, leaving a streak of colours across the cloudy rain-clogged sky.

Pic from Nicole Johnston and team
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China’s aerobatic team

China’s military modernsiation programme is continuing apace

It boasts the largest navy in the world and the largest armed forces by active-duty personnel.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Airforce is developing fast too.

Dr Nicole Leveringhaus, a China security expert from King’s College London, says: “China started with very little. It was devastated by wars on many fronts in the 30s and 40s. Its defence industry was depleted. In 70-plus years it’s built itself up and now we’re seeing the results.

“It’s an impressive feat to go from a bloated land-based peasant guerrilla army to what it has to today.”

Chinese pride and nationalism on display

Enjoying the air show spectacle, military fan Liu Liansong said: “I think the air show is great. It is a firm manifestation of the air force’s development from scratch. We as Chinese people feel very proud.”

Defence exhibition near Beijing
Image:
Inside the air show


Defence exhibition near Beijing

The air show included massive exhibition halls of military hardware, from drones to robotics, firearms and mock missiles. Merely getting from one end of the venue to the other through densely packed crowds was a mission.

Russia in the air

The other crowd puller this week was Russia’s aerobatic air force unit, performing daily theatrics at dizzying speeds.

It is another sign of the deepening ties between China and Russia.

Defence exhibition
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Russia’s aerobatic team shows off for the crowd

One Russian tourist and recreational pilot, Yulia, told Sky News: “Both sides are looking for good communication in business, aviation and in many spheres including tourism.”

The secretary of Russia’s security council and former defence minister Sergei Shoigu also visited the air show, viewing both Chinese and Russian-made jets.

In Beijing, secretary Shoigu was quoted by Russian state media as saying: “I see the most important task as countering the policy of ‘dual containment’ of Russia and China pursued by the United States and its satellites.”

Defence exhibition near Beijing
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One of Russia’s jets up close

Defence exhibition near Beijing

The West is increasingly frustrated by China’s support of Russia. The US has sanctioned two Chinese companies, accusing them of being involved in the production of Russian aerial drones used on the battlefield.

China insists it is not supplying weapons to Russia.

One of the companies, Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co, had a small stand in one of the exhibition halls. Its representatives declined Sky News’ request for an interview.

Tariff war brewing

Despite the raw military might on display in Zhuhai, in China there is uncertainty and unease about what an impending Donald Trump presidency will mean for global trade.

Defence exhibition near Beijing.

President-elect Trump has threatened blanket tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products exported to the US.

This would be a serious blow to China’s target GDP growth and comes at a time when the country’s economy faces deep-set challenges.

Read more:
Pictures show moment Israeli bomb exploded at Beirut apartment block
Scholz’s phone call with Putin opens ‘Pandora’s box’, says Zelenskyy

At the other end of the country, in Beijing analysts are weighing up the impact of possible tariffs and the Chinese government’s options to respond.

Senior Asia analyst Chim Lee, from The Economist Intelligence Unit, is not optimistic that a US-China agreement to minimise the damage can be reached.

Senior Asia Analyst Chim Lee
Image:
Senior Asia analyst Chim Lee

“I think both sides have recognised that the era of making deals is passed,” Mr Lee said.

“We’re going to see China starting with some targeted measures, tariffs it feels more comfortable to impose,” he explained. “But there are also areas where China is starting to be a bit more aggressive.”

This action could include export controls on China’s production of critical minerals and retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture exports.

Trade competition, military posturing and complicated geo-political alliances have set the stage for a challenging next phase in US-China relations.

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Pictures show moment Israeli bomb exploded at Beirut apartment block

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Pictures show moment Israeli bomb exploded at Beirut apartment block

New pictures show the moment of impact as an Israeli missile hit a Beirut apartment block and exploded.

The block was one of five buildings destroyed by airstrikes on Friday alone.

Israel launched airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut in a fourth consecutive day of intense attacks.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

An Associated Press photographer captured a sequence of images showing an Israeli bomb approaching and hitting a multi-storey apartment building in Beirut’s Tayouneh area.

A bomb dropped from an Israeli jet prepares to hit a building in Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
A bomb dropped from an Israeli jet prepares to hit a building in Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Richard Weir, a senior crisis, conflict and arms researcher at Human Rights Watch, reviewed the close-up photos to determine what type of weapon was used.

“The bomb and components visible in the photographs, including the strake, wire harness cover, and tail fin section, are consistent with a Mk-84 series 2,000-pound class general purpose bomb equipped with Boeing’s joint directed attack munition tail kit,” he told AP.

A bomb dropped from an Israeli jet hits a building in Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
Thick smoke and flames erupt from an Israeli airstrike on Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
Image:
Pics: AP

Smoke covers a building that collapses following an Israeli airstrike in Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
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Smoke covers a building that collapses following the strike. Pic: AP

Deadly strikes as bombardment stepped up

Israel stepped up its bombardment this week – an escalation that has coincided with signs of movement in US-led diplomacy towards a ceasefire.

The Israeli military said its fighter jets attacked munitions warehouses, a headquarters and other Hezbollah infrastructure. It issued a warning on social media identifying buildings ahead of the strikes.

Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed five members of the same family in a home in Ain Qana in the southern province of Nabatiyeh, Lebanon’s state media said.

The report said a mother, father and their three children were killed but didn’t provide their ages.

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Three other Israeli strikes killed six people and wounded 32 in different parts of Tyre province on Friday, also in south Lebanon, the report said.

Video footage also showed a building being struck and turning into a cloud of rubble and debris that billowed into Horsh Beirut, the city’s main park.

Civil defense workers extinguish a fire as smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
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Residents check the site of the airstrike in Tayouneh, Beirut. Pic: AP

Residents check the site of an Israeli airstrike in Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
Residents check the site of an Israeli airstrike in Tayouneh, Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

More than 3,200 people have been killed in Lebanon during 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah – most of them since mid-September.

About 27% of those killed were women and children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

Israel dramatically escalated its bombardment of Lebanon from September, vowing to cripple Hezbollah and end its barrages in Israel.

Friday’s strikes come as Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister has asked Iran to help secure a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The prime minister appeared to urge Ali Larijani, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to convince the militant group to agree to a deal that could require it to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border.

Iran is a main backer of Hezbollah and for decades has been funding and arming the Lebanese militant group.

On Thursday, Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister and a member of its security cabinet, said that prospects for a ceasefire with Lebanon were the most promising since the conflict began.

The Washington Post reported Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was rushing to advance a Lebanon ceasefire to deliver an early foreign policy win to his ally, US President-elect Donald Trump.

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Elon Musk hints 80-hour-a-week DOGE job for ‘high-IQ revolutionaries’ will be unpaid

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Elon Musk hints 80-hour-a-week DOGE job for 'high-IQ revolutionaries' will be unpaid

“Super high-IQ revolutionaries” who are willing to work 80+ hours a week are being urged to join Elon Musk’s new cost-cutting department in Donald Trump’s incoming US government.

The X and Tesla owner will co-lead the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

And in a post on X, the official DOGE account put out a call to arms for people to sign up and help “dismantle government bureaucracy”.

The post said: “We are very grateful to the thousands of Americans who have expressed interest in helping us at DOGE.

“We don’t need more part-time idea generators.

“We need super high-IQ small-government revolutionaries willing to work 80+ hours per week on unglamorous cost-cutting.

“If that’s you, DM this account with your CV. Elon & Vivek will review the top 1% of applicants.”

Read more:
Who is in Trump’s top team?
Trump’s cabinet signals tough stance on China

Elon Musk speaks after President-elect Donald Trump spoke during an America First Policy Institute gala at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Pic: AP Photo/Alex Brandon
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Elon Musk speaking at an event held at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Pic: AP Photo/Alex Brandon

In a reply to an interested party, Mr Musk suggested the lucky applicants would be working for free.

“Indeed, this will be tedious work, make lost of enemies & compensation is zero,” the world’s richest man wrote.

“What a great deal!”

When announcing the new department, President-elect Donald Trump said Mr Musk and Mr Ramaswamy “will pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies”.

Mr Musk has previously made clear his desire to see cuts to “government waste” and in a post on his X platform suggested he could axe as many as three-quarters of the more than 400 federal departments in the US, writing: “99 is enough.”

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