Has Rishi Sunak’s baptism of fire showed opposition leaders make the best PMs?
Is Rishi Sunak’s baptism of fire as prime minister evidence that politicians who’ve been Leader of the Opposition make the best PMs?
Some MPs claim Mr Sunak’s early blunders – the disastrous appointment of Sir Gavin Williamson to the cabinet table and his COP27 U-turn, for example – reveal not only a lack of experience but a political naivety.
And at this week’s bruising Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons, the novice PM appeared to be so nervous that at one point he failed to stand up when it was his turn to respond to Sir Keir Starmer.
Let’s not forget, Mr Sunak is by a long way the most inexperienced politician to become PM in modern times. He succeeded William Hague as MP for Richmond in North Yorkshire in 2015, just seven years ago.
Although he was quickly tipped as a rising star, his ministerial CV was limited – a junior housing minister, then Treasury chief secretary – until he succeeded Sajid Javid as chancellor in February 2020.
His Tory critics would claim that all the slick videos and the fancy branding are pretty worthless if a PM makes a hash of party management, including making bad choices in key ministerial jobs, and lacks political nous and guile.
Earlier this year, many of Mr Sunak’s own supporters on the Tory benches were alarmed by how badly he handled the tax row over his wife’s non-dom status – an issue Labour MPs are still seeking to exploit now.
For his part, Sir Keir was ridiculed earlier this year when he told Labour’s shadow cabinet to stop briefing the press that he was boring and declared: “What’s boring is being in opposition.”
Maybe. But being an opposition leader is a good apprenticeship for being prime minister.
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PMQs analysed
Opposition leaders have the luxury of making their mistakes, bad appointments and U-turns when it doesn’t much matter and before they enter 10 Downing Street.
In modern times, Tony Blair had three years as Leader of the Opposition, from 1994 when John Smith died until 1997, before his decade in Number 10.
David Cameron had five years as opposition leader, from his election as Tory leader in 2005 until he formed his coalition government in 2010.
Arguably, both were more successful as PM than their successors. Gordon Brown, who had only held one cabinet post, chancellor, before becoming PM, and Theresa May, who’d been home secretary for six years.
In opposition, Mr Blair junked Labour’s Clause 4 and cleared out the shadow cabinet he largely inherited from Neil Kinnock. Mr Cameron used his time as Leader of the Opposition to modernise the Tories and drag them into the 21st century.
Before stepping down in 2007, Mr Blair warned Mr Cameron at PMQs to beware of Mr Brown’s “big clunking fist”. Yet by the end of that year, Mr Brown was being mocked by the Lib Dems’ Vince Cable for going “from Stalin to Mr Bean”.
From left: Keir Starmer, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson, David Cameron, Theresa May and John Major
Theresa May, who succeeded Mr Cameron after the 2016 EU referendum, couldn’t cope with Brexit and called a disastrous general election in 2017 in which the low point was her plaintive “Nothing has changed!” cry over a dementia tax U-turn.
Provided he survives the COVID inquiry that has just got underway, history may well judge that Boris Johnson handled the pandemic well. But he was brought down by sleaze and the three Ps: Paterson, partygate and Pincher.
Liz Truss may have been an experienced cabinet minister when she defeated Mr Sunak for the Tory leadership in the summer. But clearly, she lacked the guile and political skills to implement her tax-cutting agenda without bringing the country to the brink of financial collapse.
Further back, Margaret Thatcher succeeded Edward Heath in 1975 and spent four years in opposition plotting her crusade of spending cuts, trade union reforms and privatisation with her guru Sir Keith Joseph before becoming PM in 1979.
Most Tory MPs would agree that John Major, who succeeded her as PM in 1990, was a flop in comparison, because of Black Wednesday in 1992 and years of Tory civil war over Europe before the Conservatives were crushed by Labour in 1997.
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Rishi Sunak’s first speech as PM
Prior to Mrs Thatcher, James Callaghan had succeeded Harold Wilson in 1976 and presided over financial turmoil, with chancellor Denis Healey going cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund, and then the ‘winter of discontent’ – when the country was crippled by strikes.
Wilson, by contrast, had the luxury of a year as opposition leader after Hugh Gaitskell died in 1963 before his 1964 election victory and then – in a luxury a party leader wouldn’t be afforded now – led the opposition again during Edward Heath’s 1970-74 government.
It has to be said, of course, that Heath, who had been opposition leader from 1965 until his 1970 victory, disproves the theory that opposition leaders make the best PMs, presiding over strikes, three-day weeks and blackouts.
In his new biography of Wilson, who won four general election victories and is often viewed as the consummate political tactician and party manager, Labour MP Nick Thomas-Symonds argues that he had two objectives.
They were to keep his party together and to stay in Europe – and he achieved both, the shadow international trade secretary claims. Compare that with Cameron’s attempts to do the same, which ended in disaster!
Rishi Sunak holding his first cabinet meeting
Thomas-Symonds also argues that while Roy Jenkins got the credit for Labour’s social reforms of the 1960s – on issues like abortion, homosexuality and race – it was Wilson who made sure there was parliamentary time for them to become law.
In a famous quote, another politician of the 1960s and 70s, Enoch Powell, remarked: “All political careers end in failure.”
And that’s true even of PMs like Blair and Cameron, who are perceived as being relatively successful.
Labour MPs will tell you Blair should have said a resounding no to US president George W Bush on Iraq in 2003, just as Wilson did to Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s over Vietnam.
And Cameron’s Brexit gamble blew up in his face, though it served Boris Johnson well in the 2019 general election, when he won the Tories’ biggest Commons majority since Margaret Thatcher’s in 1987.
But no one could ever accuse any of the UK’s leading prime ministers of naivety and inexperience, which is what some critics claim Rishi Sunak is suffering from at the moment.
US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.
The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.
The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.
In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.
File pic: AP
But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.
Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
There are “American lives at stake,” she added.
Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.
A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.
Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.
Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters
On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.
“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.
“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”
Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters
The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.
The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.
Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
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Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.
Fighting in Gaza has been halted since 19 January.
Hamas has exchanged 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.
The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.
Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.
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Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP
Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.
Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.
Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.
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A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.
A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.
The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
China imposes retaliatory tariffs
The president, however, said he was “just getting started” after 43 days into his second term.
China and Canada have retaliated with their own tariffs against the US.
From next week China will add its own 15% levy on a range of agricultural products such as chicken, wheat, corn and cotton.
An extra 10% will be added to soya beans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables and dairy products imports.
The country has also raised additional complaints against the US with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
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Speaking to Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim the US former deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger said Chinese president Xi Jinping was turning the Chinese economy “into a wartime economy”
“He’s preparing his economy for war so that it can withstand the shocks of war,” he said on The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim podcast
“That means he’s willing to undergo massive inefficiencies in the economy. He’s willing to stockpile food that otherwise would flow easily and more cheaply in from foreign vessels.”
“He’s stockpiling copper and all kinds of inputs into the economy. He is making sure that the private sector is wholly aligned with his broad goals, which are about increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the economy and creating a bigger, better defence industrial base,” Mr Pottinger said.
“He’s preparing for war.”
👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈
Compromise ‘as early as Wednesday’?
Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.
He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.
Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”
Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).
But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.
China’s premier has warned “changes unseen in a century are unfolding across the world” as a trade war with the US intensifies.
Li Qiang was speaking in parliament – a day after Washington slapped another 10% tariff on Chinese goods.
Beijing has responded with 10% to 15% tariffs on US food and agricultural products.
“Global economic growth lacks steam, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise… the multilateral trading system is experiencing disruptions and tariff barriers continue to increase,” Premier Li added.
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‘Whatever they tariff us, we will tariff them’
The Chinese Embassy in the US has also dialled up the pressure, writing on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
This statement was first made by China’s ministry of foreign affairs on Tuesday. The fact that China has repeated it two days in a row is significant.
It is a pointed message to the US that China’s patience is running out – and its rhetoric about the tit-for-tat tariffs is growing harsher. It has called the tariff war “pressure”, “blackmail”, a “smear campaign” and “shifting the blame”.
But Mr Trump loves imposing tariffs on China and appears convinced the pressure will work. He blames China for exporting the chemical precursors used to make fentanyl, which has fuelled the US opioid epidemic.
Meanwhile, China is facing severe economic challenges at home, with the country setting a growth target of “about 5%” for this year.
The government’s work report said a major task this year is to boost consumption and domestic demand.
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Why are tariffs such a big deal?
The problem in China is people aren’t spending enough money, instead they are cautiously saving. One reason for this is the weakness of China’s social welfare system. People save their money in case they lose their job, or to pay for health and elderly care.
The government says it wants to make domestic demand the engine of growth by turning several cities into “international consumption centres” – and expanding its trade-in system to encourage people to buy new products for the home.
Shopping aside, thousands of delegates from provinces across China attended including high-profile figures like former basketball star Yao Ming, and Lei Jun, who co-founded the electric vehicle manufacturing company Xiaomi.
After the session, delegates streamed into the square outside the Great Hall of the People. It is a chance to get their thoughts on the country’s future.
Congress delegate Liu Hui said: “I think tariffs will have little impact on China because we treat others the way they treat us.”
Another delegate from Shaanxi province, Song Yaping, is proud of China’s hi-tech prowess and said: “Our technology develops so fast, just look at DeepSeek, look at how fast our AI develops.”
Read more:
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Peace in Europe, war with China?
Despite the confidence, the trade war is deepening.
In the factory heartland of Guangzhou in southern China, a glassware exporter is bracing for the impact of the latest Trump tariffs.
Marketing manager Anna said: “I think the people will discuss these tariffs and of course 10% is a huge number. Some companies can’t make a profit from this.
“But we can’t change it. We just have to get used to it and let it be.”
Still, letting it be is not easy in a world where it feels like everything is changing fast.
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