One of the biggest talking points of this year’s campaign was how the army of Republican candidates backed by Trump would do, how influential the former president still is and whether his seal of approval carries weight with the electorate at large as well as with his base.
Mr Trump officially endorsed 174 of the 430 Republican House candidates, and analysis of results from just over half of counties suggests he didn’t help them very much.
In counties with candidates backed by Trump, the Republican vote share increased by 2.1 percentage points compared to the 2020 presidential election. That’s well short of the 8 percentage point increase for the party in counties without Trump-endorsed Republicans.
The difference was largest in areas defended by the Democrats, but was still clear in districts that were held by Republicans before polling day.
Trump-backed candidates have fared even worse in Senate races, with the Republican vote share falling. In areas where they were challenging an incumbent Democrat, the decrease was 1.2 percentage points.
But when the Republican challenger to a sitting Democrat wasn’t backed by Trump, the Republican vote share increased by 7 percentage points.
Similar patterns were seen in the races to unseat Democratic Governors and Secretaries-of-State. Here the Republican vote share fell in areas where candidates had a Trump endorsement and rose where they didn’t.
Election deniers
While Trump’s endorsement may not have helped Republican candidates, those who doubted or denied the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election in 2020 did well.
Of the 430 Republican candidates for the House, 224 had previously either denied or cast doubt on the legitimacy of that election. Those candidates performed relatively well, increasing the Republican vote in their areas by 6.7 percentage points (compared to 4.9 percentage points for other Republican candidates).
But it didn’t seem to help the Republicans gain seats. Election-deniers were relatively successful when defending Republican seats, but didn’t do any better than other Republicans when taking on sitting Democrats.
Nevertheless, many election-deniers won their races. Of the 33 new Republicans in Congress, 21 have cast doubt on the 2020 presidential result. That includes seven of the 12 Republicans who gained House seats from the Democrats.
Two of those 12 are not entirely new to the building they will now call their office. George Santos (NY-3) and Derrick Van Orden (WI-3) were both present outside the Capitol on 6th January last year, attending a pro-Trump election-denial rally which culminated in the violent storming of the US legislature.
For Republican Senate candidates, denying the 2020 presidential election may have done them more harm than good. Their vote share fell by 2.4 percentage points, while candidates who haven’t denied Joe Biden’s legitimacy as president saw an increase of 6.2 percentage points.
This analysis is based on results from just over half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least gives us a glimpse of how things are going as we look ahead to the next election in 2024.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Donald Trump has paused his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on most of America’s trading partners for 90 days – while increasing those on China to 125%.
However, the S&P 500 stock index jumped 9.5% and global markets bounced back following Mr Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that the increased tariffs on nearly all trading partners would now be paused.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said the “90-day pause” was for the “more than 75 countries” who had not retaliated against his tariffs “in any way”.
He added that during this period they would still have to pay a “substantially lowered” 10% tariff, which is “effective immediately”.
It is lower than the 20% tariff that Mr Trump had set for goods from the European Union, 24% on imports from Japan and 25% on products from South Korea.
The UK was already going to face a blanket 10% tariff under the new system.
Mr Trump said the increased 125% tariff on imported goods from China was “effective immediately”.
He added: “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realise that the days of ripping off the USA, and other countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”
What’s in Trump’s tariff pause?
Here’s what Donald Trump’s tariff pause entails:
‘Reciprocal’ tariffs on hold
• Higher tariffs that took effect today on 57 trading partners will be paused for 90 days
• These include the EU, Japan and South Korea, all of which will face a baseline 10% duty instead
• Countries that already had a 10% levy imposed since last week – such as the UK – aren’t affected by the pause
China tariffs increased
• Trump imposed a higher 125% tariff on China
• That’s in addition to levies he imposed during his first term
• China had hit the US with 84% tariff earlier today, following tit-for-tat escalations
No change for Canada or Mexico
• Canadian and Mexican goods will remain subject to 25% fentanyl-related tariffs if they don’t comply with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement’s rules of origin
• Compliant goods are exempt
Car and metal tariffs remain
• Trump’s pause doesn’t apply to the 25% tariffs he levied on steel and aluminium in March and on cars (autos) on 3 April
• This 25% tariff on car parts does not come into effect until 3 May
Sectors at risk
• Copper, lumber, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals are expected to be subject to separate tariffs, in the same way autos are
Hours after Mr Trump announced the pause on tariffs for most countries, a White House official clarified that this did not apply to the 25% duties imposed on some US imports from Mexico and Canada.
The tariffs were first announced in February and Mexico and Canada were not included in the “Liberation Day” announcements.
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It meant tariffs of 84% would be enforced on US goods – up from the 34% China had previously planned.
Image: Mr Trump spoke to reporters in the Oval Office. Pic: Reuters
China ‘want to make a deal’
Asked why he posted “BE COOL” on Truth Social hours before announcing his tariff pause, Mr Trump told reporters at the White House: “I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line.”
“They were getting yippy, you know, were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid,” he added.
Mr Trump continued: “China wants to make a deal, they just don’t know how to go about it.
“[They’re] quite the proud people, and President Xi is a proud man. I know him very well, and they don’t know quite how to go about it, but they’ll figure it out.
“They’re in the process of figuring out, but they want to make a deal.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the walk back was part of a grand negotiating strategy by Mr Trump.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” she said, adding that the news media “clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also insisted Mr Trump had strengthened his hand through his tariffs.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” he said.
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Mr Bessent said Mr Trump decided to raise tariffs on China because Beijing hadn’t reached out to the US and instead increased its own levies on US goods.
Downing Street said that the UK will “coolly and calmly” continue its negotiations with the US.
A Number 10 spokeswoman said: “A trade war is in nobody’s interests. We don’t want any tariffs at all, so for jobs and livelihoods across the UK, we will coolly and calmly continue to negotiate in Britain’s interests.”
Photos in Australian media on Wednesday are said to show Ms Giuffre being driven in a vehicle north of Perth.
The 41-year-old appeared with a bruised face last week when she posted an Instagram video saying her car had been hit by a speeding school bus as she slowed for a turn.
She said: “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure, they’ve given me four days to live, transferring me to a specialist hospital in urology.
“I’m ready to go, just not until I see my babies one last time…”
Police said they had received a report of a “minor crash” between a school bus and a car in Neergabby, about 12 miles from Perth, on 24 March.
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“The collision was reported by the bus driver the following day,” said a spokeswoman. “There were no reported injuries as a result of the crash.”
Ms Giuffre is reported to have separated from her husband.
The case was due back in court today (9 April).
Image: Ms Giuffre reached a settlement with the duke in 2022. File pic: AP
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.
Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.
In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.
It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.
China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.
While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.
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6:50
Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump
The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?
There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.
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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.
Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.
The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.
It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.
Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.
In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.
This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.
Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.
Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.
There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.