Inside the Devils’ breakout: The factors that have led to 11 straight wins
Lindy Ruff had reason to smile. Not just because the New Jersey Devils were in the midst of a winning streak that would reach 11 games, but because the same fans who had called for his dismissal at the start of the season had audible apologized:
“Fire Lindy!” had become “Sorry, Lindy!”
That happens when your team is suddenly leading the Metropolitan Division, has the second-best record in the NHL and is dominating at both ends of the ice.
“I accept the apology,” Ruff said. “Someday, us and the fans are going to sit down and have a beer and laugh about that one.”
It’s been a while since the Devils and their fans had a reason to smile. Their last playoff appearance was in 2018, their only trip to the postseason since making the Stanley Cup Final in 2012. Last season was a disaster: a .384 points percentage, the team’s lowest since 1985-86, in a campaign defined by significant lineup absences.
“We had a lot of pain last year. We’re back to how we want to play the game,” Ruff said. “On different nights, we’ve got everybody that’s contributing to the win. On most nights, we’re giving ourselves a chance to win a hockey game.”
Through all the pain, Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald knew the potential for something special was there.
“I think if you look back to last year, you saw where we were trending. The underlying numbers told us we were definitely heading in the right direction,” he said.
How did the NHL’s hottest team find its stride? Can the Devils continue to dominate? Here are six reasons why New Jersey is the breakout team of the 2022-23 NHL season.
Creating off the rush
After 16 games, the Devils were third in the NHL in goals per game (3.75). Players like winger Jesper Bratt, star center Jack Hughes and team captain Nico Hischier were playing at better than a point per game pace. Forwards such as Miles Wood, Dawson Mercer, Yegor Sharangovich, Fabian Zetterlund and veteran Tomas Tatar were contributing goals. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton, a huge free agent signing in 2021, was in the top 10 in scoring for defensemen.
Speed and creativity are at their best when New Jersey creates chances off the rush.
“The Devils are all about high event hockey this season,” said Meghan Chayka, co-founder of Stathletes. “This team is operating like an offensive juggernaut.”
Chayka notes that the Devils are the best team in the NHL at generating shots off the rush through 16 games, averaging 14.9 shots per game at event strength. The league average is 11.8 shots.
The quality of chances has contributed to the Devils leading the NHL in expected goals (3.46 per 60 minutes) and high danger shot attempts (15.72 per 60 minutes) at even strength.
Their speed, puck possession and offensive flow can be downright overwhelming. There was a 7-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets where the Devils had a 24-1 advantage in high danger shot attempts. They had a 19-3 shot attempt advantage in the first period of a victory over the New York Islanders. One of their signature wins was a comeback victory at the Edmonton Oilers, when the Devils held a 31-14 shot attempt advantage.
The catalyst for many of the Devils’ chances off the rush is Hughes, whose velocity and creativity have already made him a highlight-reel mainstay this season. According to Chayka, Hughes is fourth in expected goals off the rush (0.15) and seventh in shots off the rush (2.12) per game. He’s first in scoring chances off the rush (17) in all situations.
“The wins are coming but we like our game. We like our style of play. Fast. The forward group works hard,” Hughes said. “When we’re skating, we’re a pretty good team.”
“We can roll four lines and dominate on the rush. When your four lines are clicking like that, we can be relentless at times,” Ruff said.
But Dimitri Filipovic, who hosts The Hockey PDOcast for Sportsnet, believes it’s the totality of the Devils’ offense that makes them special.
“They’re passing all the checkpoints for me honestly. Offensively, they’re finding different ways to score beyond just the rush,” he said. “Last year, I think only the Panthers and Avs were better off the rush, but the Devils were like 21st in scoring off the forecheck and the cycle. This year, they’ve balanced that out. The rush is still overwhelming when they get going, but it’s hardly just a one-trick pony.”
Goaltending
If you asked around the Devils last season about the status of Ruff’s continued employment, there was a common response: Anything good that his coaching produced was undercut by disastrous goaltending. Because of injury and ineffectiveness, the Devils had seven different goalies start games in 2021-22 that produced a .881 team save percentage. Only the expansion Seattle Kraken were below them in that category.
The mantra, internally: “If we could only get a save …”
The Devils have tried to remedy their goaltending problems for the past three seasons, seeking a veteran complement to now 25-year-old Mackenzie Blackwood. They signed Chicago Blackhawks Stanley Cup winner Corey Crawford in October 2020, who never played for them and retired the following January. They signed former Detroit Red Wings goalie Jonathan Bernier in July 2021, who played 10 games before undergoing surgery on his right hip. His return remains uncertain.
Enter Vitek Vanecek. The 26-year-old played two average seasons in Washington before the Capitals traded both of their goalies in favor of signing Darcy Kuemper last summer. The Devils sent two draft picks to Washington to acquire Vanecek in July, placing their chips on the offseason’s goalie roulette table.
Their number might have hit. Vanecek had a .915 save percentage, a 2.17 save percentage and 0.6 goals saved above expected in 10 appearances. Not dominant, but not detrimental, and that’s where the bar is for the Devils.
“He’s a very competitive goalie,” Fitzgerald said. “He’ll throw his leg or blocker out to make a save. He’s on every puck. He fights through traffic. He’s a battler.”
Blackwood played seven games before being shelved with an MCL injury until around Christmas. While his overall play was below replacement — minus-2.9 goals saved above expected — he benefited from the team’s improved defense. Blackwood faced an average of 20.5 shots on goal in his four wins, which is a Martin Brodeur-level of defensive insulation. Like a young quarterback that’s suddenly playing behind an improved offensive line, the conditions are right for Blackwood to regain his form when he returns.
Fitzgerald sees a symbiotic relationship between his defense and goaltender that wasn’t there in the team’s previous seasons of struggles. Vanecek isn’t stealing games, but he’s giving them the baseline saves that they need to allow the Devils to attack with confidence. Vanecek, meanwhile, is benefitting from renewed defensive commitment.
Through 16 games, the Devils are generating 15.72 high danger shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play and giving up just 8.54 shot attempts on average. Only five teams averaged less than 10 high-danger shot attempts against per game last season. One of them was the Devils (9.88).
“Our guys are playing very confident in front of him,” Fitzgerald said. “If we don’t give these [goalies] a s— sandwich defensively, then all we’re asking for them to do is just make the save. I think that’s all that goalies care about. Don’t expose us.”
Preventing odd-man rushes
Jack Fraser, who runs the popular analytics account @JFreshHockey on Twitter, believes the Devils have preserved the best aspects of what they did well last season while addressing their biggest concerns. Namely, preventing opponents’ chances off the rush.
“Last season, they were a dynamic offensive team, playing with a similarly high tempo to what we’re seeing now,” Fraser said. “But they were also one of the worst rush defense teams in the league, worst [in the NHL] at preventing entries with possession and bottom five in rush chances against. All of a sudden they’re allowing the least chances, and specifically least rush chances in the league.”
Filipovic noted that New Jersey has been tremendous in its own zone, allowing the lowest shots on goal per 60 minutes at even strength (23.46) and expected goals (2.05) in the NHL through 16 games. Part of that has been terrific defensive play from Jonas Siegenthaler and especially John Marino, whom the Devils acquired in a trade from the Pittsburgh Penguins in the offseason.
Wrote about John Marino @EPRinkside
On his incredible start to the year, the huge impact he’s already had on the Devils defense, and exactly what he’s been doing in all 3 zones so farhttps://t.co/ME7I5oDo5I pic.twitter.com/eIhduXcGlP
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) November 10, 2022
“He’s been so good as the last man back, that he’s either entirely erasing odd-man rushes himself or slowing down opponents enough for all of his teammates to get back and provide support,” Filipovic said of Marino. “They were such a rush-heavy team last season, which was great, but every time they didn’t score themselves, the team took the puck back the other way and countered with a rush goal of their own. This year that’s not really happening.”
Striking the balance between their rushing offensive attack and defensive responsibility has been the secret sauce for the Devils.
“Your offense starts in front of your goalie and your defense starts in front of theirs,” Fitzgerald said.
The Devils GM is all for being aggressive in the offensive zone, with defensemen joining the play and forwards cycling deep to keep zone time going. “But once in a while, the puck gets by you. Once in a while, they get caught,” he said.
The key for the Devils has been making sure their F3 forward is getting back defensively. That’s the designation for the third forward that enters the attacking zone on the rush.
“A lot of times in the past the F3 would drive down [into the zone] because they were so [excited] to get an offensive chance. We weren’t supporting each other,” Fitzgerald said.
Where the Devils have improved, according to Fitzgerald, is on the “track back” on transition plays. “Get back quick. Understand your assignment. End plays quick and start our transition,” he said. “Knowing who’s got the puck down there and when you should release to take a leap forward.”
Fitzgerald said that during his playing days — he played 17 seasons in the NHL from 1988 to 2006 — he always wanted to play on teams that made the opponent feel like “they had seven guys out there” defending. He’s seen that level of commitment from the Devils this season, using the word “connected” to best describe their efforts.
Fitzgerald would add another word: committed.
“We’re having success because we’re following instructions. Because if we can follow instructions, we got ourselves a chance to win,” he said. “I just think the team is maturing. Our younger players are maturing, understanding really what’s winning hockey.”
Improved special teams
Fitzgerald is more than happy to talk about “Bruno.”
Andrew Brunette was the interim coach of the Florida Panthers last season who earned a Jack Adams nomination for guiding them to a 122-point season. But after being outcoached in a sweep by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the playoffs, the Panthers moved on from Brunette and hired Paul Maurice as their new head coach. Brunette was a free agent. The Devils signed him as an associate coach, replacing assistant coach Mark Recchi as their power play architect.
“He’s like a walking encyclopedia when it comes to hockey,” Fitzgerald said. “He’s just so passionate about it. He had different ideas. I watch in practice at some of the habits he’s creating with our players.”
Much like with their goaltending, the Devils’ power play had a rather low bar to clear this season to be successful. They were 28th in the league (15.6%) in 2021-22 with a man advantage. Through 16 games, they’re at a 20.8% conversion rate.
“Now, I’d like to click a little higher on the PP. But at the end of the day, it’s about the players’ connection and understanding what Bruno’s trying to explain to them,” Fitzgerald said. “We’re moving in the right direction, that’s for sure.”
What’s interesting about the Devils’ special teams is participation. Every player that’s appeared in at least 15 games this season has seen at least 40 seconds of ice time per game on either the power play or the penalty kill, the latter of which is 11th in the NHL at 80.8%.
“Every single forward on this team plays a role on one of the special teams,” Fitzgerald said. “It’s part of something they have to take ownership on. We’re giving it to these guys because they earned it. They feel like they’re part of the team. Not every team does that. But for us, 12 out of 12 forwards have a role.”
Health of Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton
Along with improved goaltending and special teams, the other vital change from previous seasons the Devils needed was to keep their most important players in the lineup.
They haven’t been completely healthy. Free agent coup Ondrej Palat underwent groin surgery and is on injured reserve. Blackwood is on the shelf with an MCL injury. But the holy trinity has been healthy: Hughes, Hischier and Hamilton.
The Devils signed Hamilton to a seven-year free agent contract in 2021, seeing him as an essential puck-moving part of their scheme. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Devils’ “Triple H” of stars played in only 27 games together last season. New Jersey had a .444 points percentage in those games and a .355 points percentage when one or more of them was out of the lineup. Their goal differential was minus-14 in those 27 games; without them together, it was minus-45.
“When we were healthy last year, I think those numbers looked really good,” Fitzgerald said. “And we’ve been healthy this year, right? Knock on wood.”
As noted earlier, Hughes has been an offensive engine for the Devils, especially off the rush. His breakout offensive season was in 2021-22, when he scored 56 points in 49 games … but the operative phrase was “in 49 games.” Two of his three NHL seasons have been limited, as he missed eight games as a rookie and then 33 games last season. The timing of last season’s injury crushed the Devils’ momentum, as he didn’t play a game from Oct. 20 through Nov. 29.
Hamilton was limited to 62 games in his first season in New Jersey, missing nearly two months at the start of 2022. He would notch just three points in his last 18 games in a lost season. He had 14 points in his first 16 games this season.
Hischier has also struggled to stay in the lineup, missing a dozen games last season and playing just 21 games in 2020-21. Fitzgerald noted that he’s grown as a player — with there already being Selke Trophy talk for his defensive play — and as a leader.
“Having another year of Nico as a captain and understanding that role is big,” Fitzgerald said. “And having support around him.”
Mindset
Fitzgerald could see it in training camp. His players, especially the young ones, had a strong summer of working out. Their level of enthusiasm and commitment in camp was obvious, too.
“There was a different vibe,” he said. “There’s excitement from the players who have been here on the additions that we made and the care of ownership and the understanding of management about building a team. Not just a collection of talent. But a team. Each guy brings something to the table.”
What motivated them was, for lack of a better word, disgust. As a group, the Jack Hughes era had yet to produce a team that came close to meeting expectations.
“They had a bad taste in their mouth from last year,” Fitzgerald said. “So we had to answer this: ‘What’s our why? Why are we doing this? What do we want to get out of this?’ It’s just been a different vibe.”
Their mindset has a produced a solid start and, more importantly, a proof of concept for Ruff and Fitzgerald.
“It’s not a ‘Jack and Nico carry the team’ situation — the whole group is clicking,” Fraser said. “I don’t think it’s crazy to say that this might be their 2020-21 Panthers moment where everything comes together and they don’t look back from here.”
That is, if they can keep it rolling. There are unforeseen factors, like injuries, the Devils can’t account for. But believing their own hype or failing to execute with the proficiency they have so far? Those are controllable. Those are part of the mindset.
“I’m a big believer in just staying in the now. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s not put the cart before the horse,” Fitzgerald said. “Let’s remember how we did it. Let’s remember how we got to this point. Let’s remember how we came out of training camp and we didn’t get the results, but we didn’t abandon the processes that we put in place. Just take ownership of your own game.”
Because of these six factors, there’s a belief that it’s time to give the Devils their due.
“They remind of the Panthers and Flames from last year and the Avalanche the year before,” Fraser said. “They’re dominating at both ends of the ice. Every one of their players is solidly above breakeven in every single on-ice stat at even strength, most of them by huge margins.”
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — After Francisco Lindor began the season 0-for-11 and his slow starts of the past continued to haunt him, the Mets shortstop was asked what he needed to do to avoid another one.
“That’s a fantastic question,” Lindor said. “I’m sure everyone’s asking that and I’m sure everyone’s trying to figure it out, and I’m right there with everyone. I don’t know.”
Lindor soon got his answer — from Jeremy Barnes, one of the Mets’ two hitting coaches. The gist: Don’t chase hits, Barnes told him. Don’t chase anything. Stick to the plan and execute it. You’re one of the best in the world. Don’t make it more than it is. Trust the work and trust yourself.
“And he’s been awesome,” Barnes said. “He’s been awesome since then.”
Since that forgettable three-game series in Houston, then missing the Mets’ fourth game of the season for the birth of his third child, the Mets’ leadoff man is batting .349 with five home runs and a .972 OPS to help propel New York to the best record in the majors at 18-7. He has resembled the National League MVP runner-up from 2024 and is playing like one of the sport’s most dynamic stars — much earlier on the calendar than he usually does.
“The conversation helped me have a clearer mind on what I needed to do during the process,” Lindor said in Spanish. “Just try not to do much. Look for pitches I need to look for and pass the baton because we have a lot of batters who are horses and I don’t have to do much. It all comes in the preparation. I prepare, and once I get in the batter’s box, I’m not thinking. My athletic ability kicks in. That’s what happened.”
Even while his new superstar teammate, Juan Soto, has stumbled out of the gate, Lindor was otherworldly during the Mets’ recent 7-0 homestand at Citi Field, which ended with a walk-off win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday to clinch a three-game sweep of the division rivals. Lindor became the first player in the majors this season to reach base three times in four straight games.
He crushed a walk-off home run in last Friday’s win over the St. Louis Cardinals. He clubbed a leadoff home run Sunday and another Monday — plus a three-run shot in the seventh inning to give the Mets the insurance needed for a 5-4 win over Philadelphia.
He finished the seven-game winning streak 14-for-30 with four home runs, a 1.367 OPS and a splash of elite defense. In particular, Lindor is mashing fastballs this season. He’s batting .344 with four home runs, four doubles and a .607 slugging percentage against them — perhaps the result of hitting in front of Soto or just a small sample size from an elite, locked-in performer.
“He’s free in a way where it’s like, ‘You know what? I’m just going to be myself,'” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “And that’s what he’s doing right now. And he’s getting results.”
Over his career, Lindor has made a habit of slow starts. In his first four seasons with the Mets, he batted a cumulative .218 over the first month of the season. Last year, he slashed .190/.265/.352 through May 18. He was booed at home. His wife, Katia, shared threatening messages from fans on social media. Owner Steve Cohen called for more positivity toward Lindor from the fan base. The Mets, in turn, began the season 22-33.
Good vibes were fundamental in the Mets’ subsequent turnaround, but good vibes require consistent winning. Lindor was foundational in that. It was Lindor who called the team meeting in late May that the Mets credited with putting them on track for a wildly captivating summer that ended in the fall just two wins shy of the World Series. And it was Lindor who became the best player in the National League not named Shohei Ohtani after his turbulent start, hitting .304 with a .928 OPS in 108 games after moving to the leadoff spot on May 18 — all while using a torpedo bat (sans the uproar).
It was also around that time that Lindor switched his walk-up song to the Temptations’ “My Girl,” a choice he dedicated to his wife and daughters. It has since become a Citi Field staple, with the crowd singing along to the tune before each of Lindor’s plate appearances — a stark difference from the reception he received a year ago.
“Last year we weren’t playing well,” Lindor said. “Now we have vibes. The music is louder. The chemistry from the guys is a lot better than what we had at the beginning of last year. The organization feels more stable. The culture is beautiful. It feels a lot better and that’s very important. It takes years of that growing.”
The Mets acquired Lindor before the 2021 season and immediately signed him to a 10-year, $341 million extension to serve as that culture setter and franchise cornerstone. He isn’t the only leader on a veteran roster with Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, but he is the front man, whose voice resonates because of his consistent performance.
Lindor’s 8.8 fWAR over the past calendar year is the highest in the National League, trailing only Aaron Judge‘s and Bobby Witt Jr.’s across all of baseball. His hot start this season could finally produce his first All-Star nod as a Met.
“He can impact the game in so many different ways,” Mets designated hitter Jesse Winker said. “He looks amazing at the plate. It’s really fun to watch. And, yeah, man, it’s like, day in and day out, he does something special so it’s cool to see.”
Lindor was special on Wednesday afternoon. His smooth backhanded play in the hole for the third out of the first inning saved some of starting pitcher David Peterson‘s bullets. He walked in the third, singled in the fifth and singled again in the seventh.
At the end, after Starling Marte, a veteran struggling in his first experience in a part-time role, delivered the game-winning single in the 10th, Lindor was the first person to sprint out to give the day’s hero a hug. He was everywhere. He’s keeping it simple. He’s clear-minded. He’s trusting himself. And the Mets are winning because of it.
“I think you come into the season and you’re trying to get your feet wet and you’re thinking of all these things,” Barnes said. “As opposed to just like, no, it’s just execute the plan. Execute the plan in April. Execute the plan in May. Execute the plan in June. Just execute the plan. And he’s one of the best in the world at being able to go out and execute that plan.
“I know that sounds super simplistic, but for him I really think it’s that.”
ST. LOUIS — Pavel Buchnevich scored three goals for his first career playoff hat trick and added an assist as the St. Louis Blues beat the Winnipeg Jets 7-2 in Game 3 of their first-round series on Thursday night.
Cam Fowler had a goal and four assists, and Jordan Kyrou, Alexey Toropchenko and Colton Parayko also scored, and Robert Thomas had three assists to help the Blues cut the Jets’ series lead to 2-1. Jordan Binnington made 17 saves.
David Gustafsson and Neal Pionk scored for the Jets, who won the first two games in Winnipeg. Connor Hellebuyck gave up six goals on 25 shots before being pulled midway through the third period. Eric Comrie stopped two of the three shots he faced.
Game 4 is in St. Louis on Sunday, with Game 5 in Winnipeg on Wednesday.
Buchnevich, who had just one goal in 22 previous postseason games, gave the Blues an early lead with two goals in the game’s opening minutes. He got it going just 48 seconds in by kicking the puck off his stick and into the net, and then he tipped Thomas’ shot for a power-play goal at 3:11.
Fowler, who assisted on the first two goals, made it 3-0 with 4:09 left in the opening period.
Buchnevich and Fowler became the first Blues teammates with three points in a period of a playoff game since Al MacInnis and Chris Pronger in Game 3 of the 1998 West quarterfinals against the Kings.
Binnington robbed Cole Perfetti of a power-play goal midway through the second that would have gotten Winnipeg back in it. Perfetti and the Jets thought the puck crossed the goal line in Binnington’s glove, but after a lengthy league-initiated review, the save stood.
Buchnevich’s third goal, at 5:24 of the third period, came less than a minute after Gustafsson gave the Jets some momentum with his first of the playoffs.
Kyrou had a power-play goal at 7:56 and Toropchenko scored with 9:28 left to make it 6-1 and chase Hellebuyck.
Pionk had a power-play goal for the Jets 2 1/2 minutes later, but Parayko got the Blues’ third goal with the man-advantage with 3:43 remaining to close the scoring.
We’re just about at the one-month mark of the 2025 MLB season — meaning, yes, it’s still too early to give much credence to the standings, but there are quite a few surprises nonetheless.
Just 2.5 games separate four teams — three of which have winning percentages above .600 — in the NL West, as the National League is shaping up to be packed with many powerful playoff-contending squads. And in the NL East, the current basement dweller, in a division that includes the Marlins and Nationals … is still the Braves?!
Meanwhile, in the American League, while the Yankees are playing as well as projected, a number of teams are hovering around .500, the Orioles are scuffling and the Twins have the second-worst record in the league.
What will the month of May bring for these clubs? Will they be able to carry — or change — their momentum?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and Bradford Doolittle to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 2
The Dodgers spent the offseason loading up their roster in hopes that they would become almost immune to the attrition that plagues teams throughout the season. Their pitching depth has been compromised nonetheless. Tony Gonsolin (back), Blake Snell (shoulder), Blake Treinen (forearm) and Michael Kopech (forearm) were added to the injured list before the end of the season’s first full month. And though none of their aforementioned injuries are considered serious — for now, at least — they offer yet another reminder of how delicate pitching depth can be. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have won in spite of that. Not at the rate many expected them to, perhaps, but enough to keep them among the sport’s elite. — Gonzalez
Record: 17-8
Previous ranking: 1
Any thought that the Padres’ deflating NL Division Series loss and the underwhelming offseason that followed it would weaken their resolve in 2025 has been grossly misplaced. They’ve stormed out of the gate with the second-best record in baseball, winning each of their first seven games and claiming five of their first six series. Nick Pivetta has been a revelation. Fernando Tatis Jr. is displaying a newfound patience that has made him look like the best player in the sport. The bullpen has been dominant. But what has stood out most is the energy of the Padres’ home environment and how their players continue to feed off it. They are 12-1 at Petco Park this season, a place that has seen their pitching staff post a 1.30 ERA. — Gonzalez
Record: 18-7
Previous ranking: 3
Don’t look now but the Mets are on fire — and the fans at Citi Field are getting very excited. The raucous atmosphere at the ballpark during the Mets’ extra-inning game against the Phillies on Wednesday came through even on the broadcast. That’s not surprising for a team that entered the season with high expectations and, so far, has more than met them. A starting rotation that seemed to lack star power when the season began has been one of the best units in the majors. The rotation’s average game score (56) ranks just behind MLB-leading Texas and its ERA (a sparkling 2.29) is easily the best in the majors. — Doolittle
Record: 15-10
Previous ranking: 7
If it wasn’t obvious last year, Aaron Judge is still proving he’s the best hitter on the planet — and it’s not particularly close. The two-time AL MVP has been Bondsian (should it just be Judgian at this point?) again to start the season. He leads the majors in batting average (.415), OBP (.513), slugging (.734) and OPS (1.247), and is tied for second in RBIs (26), to name a few categories.
Remember: Last season, he slashed .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs — and won MVP — after a middling start through the beginning of May. In 150 games since May 3 last year, he’s batting .367 with 59 home runs, 152 RBIs and a 1.273 OPS. It has been an unreal stretch — going back, really, to his 62-homer season in 2022 — that we haven’t seen since Barry Bonds was splashing balls into McCovey Cove. — Castillo
Record: 16-9
Previous ranking: 4
When franchise icon Buster Posey assumed the role of president of baseball operations, he set out to build the Giants into a team that would win on the strength of pitching and defense. That, Posey said he believed, was key to thriving at a place like Oracle Park, which traditionally saps offense. But while that develops, the Giants have enjoyed a much-needed spark of offense from Jung Hoo Lee, who’s slashing .333/.388/.581 with 10 doubles. Lee’s rookie season of 2024 was plagued by a torn labrum. The Giants couldn’t truly catch a glimpse for how his elite bat-to-ball skills would translate within Oracle Park’s spacious outfield. They have now. — Gonzalez
Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 8
When it comes to Arizona’s lineup, Corbin Carroll is the spark plug, Josh Naylor was brought in to provide punch in the middle of it and Geraldo Perdomo is one of its most crucial — yet unheralded — contributors. Their production was to be expected. But Pavin Smith‘s has been a welcomed sight. The 29-year-old left-handed hitter put together a really solid 60-game sample last season and has taken that to a new level in the first month, batting almost .400 while boasting the second-highest slugging percentage among those with at least 70 plate appearances. The D-backs never really replaced Joc Pederson‘s production at designated hitter with any outside acquisitions. Smith has shown they didn’t need to. — Gonzalez
Record: 16-10
Previous ranking: 6
On two occasions in five days, both teams scored at least 10 runs in a game at Wrigley Field. On Friday, the Cubs beat the D-backs 13-11 by scoring five runs in the seventh inning and six runs in the eighth. On Tuesday, they trailed the Dodgers by three runs heading into the bottom of the eighth and wound up beating them 11-10 in the 10th. It spoke to the early identity of this Cubs team. With Justin Steele out for the season and their bullpen a mess, the Cubs might have to slug their way to the top of the NL Central. And with the likes of Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch and Carson Kelly off to strong starts, they just might. — Gonzalez
Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 5
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been able to cobble together contention-worthy bullpens for the most part during his time with the Phillies, but his wizardry in that area has been tested early. The Phillies have gotten solid enough work from the trio of Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks, but pretty much every other reliever has struggled. Of particular concern is veteran right-hander Jordan Romano, who inked a one-year, $8.5 million free agent deal with Philadelphia over the winter. Romano’s early-season ERA is an unsightly 13.50 and he has given up two or more runs in four of his 10 outings. — Doolittle
Record: 15-10
Previous ranking: 9
It took longer than projected, but right-hander Casey Mize and first baseman Spencer Torkelson are finally realizing their potential together as former No. 1 overall picks in consecutive years. The 28-year-old Mize, the top pick in 2017, has been the best starter in a rotation featuring Tarik Skubal with a 2.22 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in four starts despite just a 18.9% strikeout rate after posting a 4.49 ERA last season. Torkelson, meanwhile, is slashing .264/.373/.571 with seven home runs in 25 games. The 2018 No. 1 pick has already accumulated 1.1 fWAR (his career high is 1.5, which he set in 2023 when he slugged a career-high 31 homers). — Castillo
Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 10
The Rangers’ solid early pitching has helped them establish an early lead in the AL West despite a negative run differential. They will be hard-pressed to remain on that perch if their aggressive offense doesn’t start producing when it’s not hitting home runs. Texas is in the bottom five of the majors in swinging at first pitches, walks and scoring runs, and only four teams have relied more on homers to score. The ambush approach has worked for their attack in the past, but so far this year, it has not. — Doolittle
Record: 14-12
Previous ranking: 9
The Rafael Devers predicament is no longer an issue. The third baseman-turned-DH reverted to his usual self since that historically dreadful start (0-for-19 with 15 strikeouts), batting .253 with 13 RBIs and seven doubles since April 2. And yet, strangely, the Red Sox have struggled to consistently produce high-scoring outputs. Boston has scored four or fewer runs in 13 of 21 games this month. It’s baffling for a lineup with that much firepower — especially considering four regulars have an OPS of at least .820. — Castillo
Record: 14-10
Previous ranking: 11
It’s shaping up to be another year of the so-called experts (Who, me?) overlooking the Guardians and another year of the Guardians stomping on low expectations. At least so far. They’re 14-10 despite a minus-five run differential and closer Emmanuel Clase‘s 7.84 ERA. Steven Kwan is batting .337. Kyle Manzardo has seven home runs. Jose Ramirez has an .824 OPS with five homers and four steals. Logan Allen has a 2.11 ERA through four starts. Clase’s struggles after a historically great season are alarming, but Hunter Gaddis (no runs over 9⅔ innings), Cade Smith (1.38 ERA), Jakob Junis (1.64 ERA), Joey Cantillo (1.35 ERA) and Tim Herrin (2.00 ERA) have sparkled out of the bullpen. The Guardians just keep humming along in a very winnable AL Central. — Castillo
Record: 13-12
Previous ranking: 19
Things looked quite bleak for the Brewers early. They lost their first four games, during which their staff gave up a combined 47 runs. It looked like the start of a long year in Milwaukee. Then the Brewers did what they’re best known for — win, regardless of who’s gone or who’s hurt. Since the first day of April, they have won 13 of 21 games to keep pace with the Cubs in the NL Central. During that stretch, their rotation has put together a 2.34 ERA, second only to the Mets for the major league lead — even though seven starting pitchers currently make up Milwaukee’s IL. — Gonzalez
Record: 13-11
Previous ranking: 21
The Astros appear to have a new ace in Hunter Brown, who has been one of baseball’s best pitchers during the opening month. Brown has strung together three straight scoreless outings, lowering his season ERA to 1.16. The early-season star of Brown’s arsenal has been a four-seamer that has picked up 1.3 mph in average velocity over last season, per Statcast. Opponents are 2-for-35 against Brown’s heater in 2025 and the assigned run value of the four-seamer (plus-7) puts it in a tie with the slider of Miami’s Max Meyer as the most valuable pitch in all of baseball so far. — Doolittle
Record: 10-14
Previous ranking: 18
The Braves have more or less bounced back from their winless season-opening trip, a skid that dropped them from ESPN’s preseason No. 2 team to the middle of the pack. Yet all is not well in Cobb County. Good news: Spencer Strider made a triumphant return to the majors last week. Bad news: He made a frustrating return to the IL not long after. Luckily, his hamstring strain was classified as Grade 1 and if all goes well, his IL stint won’t be a long one. Still, his one-start return is apropos for an elite team that has struggled to build momentum. — Doolittle
Record: 13-11
Previous ranking: 15
The disconnect between the home and road versions of Seattle’s offense is reaching absurd levels. At T-Mobile Park, the Mariners remain punchless, hitting .226 as a team while scoring at a rate (3.6 runs) better than only three other teams in their respective home venues. On the road, they are the punchers, hitting .267 with a top five road scoring average in baseball.
An avatar in that is third baseman Dylan Moore, fresh off winning AL Player of the Week honors, boosted by the fact that the M’s are on a road trip. For the season, Moore is hitting .200/.333/.350 in Seattle with one homer. On the road, he’s at .311/.340/.600 with four homers. Maybe the Mariners’ hitters could petition to play all their games on the road? — Doolittle
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 13
The Blue Jays have enjoyed a solid first month, which registers as a success after last year’s last-place debacle. But the first month of the season will be remembered for their decision to give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500-million contract. Whether that investment pans out will make or break the franchise’s future. Stringing together a few solid months to remain within striking distance at the trade deadline would be a good start. — Castillo
Record: 12-13
Previous ranking: 17
The Reds’ offense has mostly underperformed — minus a 24-run onslaught against the Orioles on Easter Sunday — but their pitching has been mostly solid. And the most encouraging signs have come from their two young frontline starters, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who have clearly taken big steps forward. The two have combined for a 2.56 ERA through their first 10 starts. Greene, whose fastball is averaging 99 mph, has struck out 35 batters and issued only six walks in 30⅔ innings. Andrew Abbott, meanwhile, was activated off the IL around mid-April and has given up only two runs in 11 innings. — Gonzalez
Record: 10-14
Previous ranking: 12
For all the work done to make Steinbrenner Field feel like home, the fact is that the Rays are still without one. That was obvious over the weekend when the Yankees traveled to Tampa to take three of four games as the visiting team in their spring training ballpark. The Rays have played all but five games at their temporary residence, going 9-10 after having their schedule changed to frontload home games to avoid the summer heat and rain. They’ll need to be better than that to make noise in the AL East. — Castillo
Record: 9-14
Previous ranking: 20
The Orioles’ chief concern entering the season was their starting pitching, and it’s proved to be a very real problem — one without an obvious solution. They have the highest starters’ ERA in baseball by nearly a half-run. Charlie Morton, their $15 million free agent addition, has a league-worst 10.89 ERA in 20⅔ innings through five starts. Dean Kremer has a 6.84 ERA after yielding eight extra-base hits to the Nationals on Tuesday. Cade Povich has a 6.38 ERA. Zach Eflin, their Opening Day starter, was put on the IL because of a lat strain after three starts. Grayson Rodriguez and Albert Suarez began the season on the IL because of shoulder injuries and their returns aren’t imminent. This is a weakness that could bury Baltimore in the standings before long. — Castillo
Record: 10-14
Previous ranking: 16
Kansas City ranks last in baseball in runs scored per game, averaging fewer than three. Bobby Witt Jr. is raking again and Maikel Garcia has been a pleasant surprise, but other than that, it has been ugly. Vinnie Pasquantino has a .186/.260/.314 slash line. Salvador Perez also has struggled with a .185 batting average and .528 OPS. This has all amplified the fan base’s cries for the club to call up top prospect Jac Caglianone as soon as possible.
Caglianone was the team’s first-round pick at No. 6 last year. He possesses perhaps the best raw power across the minors, but the first baseman has played only 16 games above Double-A. As an elite two-way player in college, he could be capable of playing the outfield, but he has played only first base as a pro, so there isn’t an obvious positional fit. But his bat could force its way to Kansas City soon enough. — Castillo
Record: 10-15
Previous ranking: 23
The Cardinals turned some heads with a season-opening sweep of the Twins, but now they’re right about where we expected — five games below .500 in the wake of a brutal 1-6 trip and battling the typical inconsistency of a mediocre-to-bad team. Brendan Donovan has been red hot; the likes of Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar and Victor Scott II have provided encouraging signs; and key members of their staff, most notably Sonny Gray and Steven Matz, have pitched well. But there has been at least as much bad to counteract the good.
Case in point: Miles Mikolas took the mound with a 7.64 ERA on Wednesday afternoon and proceeded to throw six scoreless innings against the Braves. The Cardinals lost anyway. They scored only once. — Gonzalez
Record: 11-12
Previous ranking: 22
After a hot — and surprising — start, the Angels have started to level off, dropping back to .500 with a run differential well below break even. The bullpen has been a problem area despite a near-perfect start to the season from veteran closer Kenley Jansen. One glimmer of hope from that group is 27-year-old right-hander Ryan Zeferjahn, who, despite logging only 6⅔ innings this season, ranks fourth on the Halos with 14 strikeouts. He’s whiffing batters at a rate of 18.9 per nine innings — or more than two per frame. He also has given up a couple of homers, but the raw talent certainly seems to be there for Zeferjahn to work a high-leverage role. — Doolittle
Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 26
For all the early talk about Sutter Health Park being a new hitter’s paradise in MLB, the Athletics’ immediate problem is that their opponents have done a much better job of playing to its conditions. The A’s lost eight of their first 10 home games in Sacramento, and while the ugly home/road splits of the pitching staff might be expected, the much bigger surprise is that their hitters have also been better on the road. The difference has primarily been homers: 13 long balls in 11 games at home; 22 in 13 games on the road. — Doolittle
Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 25
The Marlins have held their own in the win column over the first month, though they hold one of the NL’s worst run differentials. Still, as long as Miami is hovering around .500, it’s probably not fair to turn the focus to what so many see as the inevitability of a Sandy Alcantara trade. Nevertheless, whether you’re tracking Alcantara for trade value purposes or you’re holding out hope that the Marlins can be a surprise contender, the better he pitches, the better off you’ll be. Alas, Alcantara is not yet back to his pre-injury, Cy Young form. A quality start against Cincinnati on Wednesday lowered his ERA to 6.56 but his K/9 (6.56, matching the ERA) and BB/9 (4.63) are both well off his presurgery standard. — Doolittle
Record: 9-15
Previous ranking: 24
The Twins couldn’t overcome injuries in 2024, collapsing down the stretch to fall out of postseason contention, and it looks as if they won’t be able to overcome injuries in 2025 either. Royce Lewis, the talented but oft-injured infielder, sustained a hamstring injury during spring training and hasn’t played in a game yet. Right-hander Pablo Lopez, the club’s Opening Day starter, landed on the IL because of his own hamstring injury after three starts. An oblique strain has kept utilityman Willi Castro, an All-Star last season, off the field since April 16. The Twins, meanwhile, have sunk to fourth place in the competitive AL Central, ahead of only the White Sox. — Castillo
Record: 11-13
Previous ranking: 27
Is it too soon to be on record watch? Probably, but the Nationals have lots of reasons to be excited about MacKenzie Gore, who is on pace to make a run at 300 strikeouts this season. He already has produced a pair of 13-strikeout starts and was leading the NL in whiffs after his last start against Colorado. The Nationals’ single-season mark is 300 on the nose, established by Max Scherzer in 2018. The champ from the Expos portion of the franchise’s history is Pedro Martinez, who struck out 305 in 1997. It’s heady company for Gore, long touted as an elite prospect who is on the verge of establishing himself as an elite big league pitcher. — Doolittle
Record: 10-15
Previous ranking: 28
The Pirates’ first month has been marked by controversy. The opening homestand was tainted by the removal of Roberto Clemente signage in the right-field portion of PNC Park. Then there were the personalized fan bricks that were extracted from outside the ballpark without an initial explanation. Then came this past Saturday — a day when fans lined the Clemente Bridge to receive a Paul Skenes bobblehead, then crammed into the ballpark and filled the air with “sell the team” chants for Pirates’ frugal owner Bob Nutting. Skenes, who will start at Dodger Stadium on Friday, continues to look dominant, posting a 2.87 ERA through his first five starts. But everything around him continues to be a mess. — Gonzalez
Record: 5-19
Previous ranking: 29
The White Sox are losing far more than they’re winning. That’s expected and won’t alter their long-term plans. But Luis Robert Jr. not being good could have a significant impact. Ideally, the veteran center fielder would have dashed to a fast start and had contenders throwing trade offers with top-end prospects at the White Sox to sort through before the trade deadline. But Robert is slashing .145/.267/.250 with 27 strikeouts in 22 games. That won’t attract the kind of haul the White Sox seek as they continue their painfully thorough rebuild. — Castillo
Record: 4-18
Previous ranking: 30
It was a mere three weeks into the season when the Rockies determined that a drastic change was necessary. On the afternoon of April 17, they announced the firing of hitting coach Hensley Meulens and replaced him with longtime manager Clint Hurdle, who had taken on an advisory role with the organization. The Rockies were in the midst of a six-game losing streak then, during which they had accumulated only 12 runs — seven of which had come the night before. Things have not gotten much better since. Hurdle, of course, is no wizard. The Rockies hold the third-lowest OPS in the majors and its worst record, all while playing in the sport’s most difficult division. It will be another long season in Colorado. — Gonzalez
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