Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we’re still awaiting the first big splash.
While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.
Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?
We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who’s likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.
Here’s how they voted — and what they had to say about their picks.
Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?
Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he’ll get. Either way, he’ll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.
“He gambled and showed up, but I’m going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast,” one voter said of the California native. “Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me.”
Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?
There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.
“I think his [Turner’s] skill set ages the best,” one voter said. “Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn’t slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner’s athleticism any day.”
Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?
Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco’s public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there’s no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason’s shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.
“Dave Dombrowski isn’t going to sit on his hands,” said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. “His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don’t get one of them.”
“I just think if the Giants don’t get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?,” another voter responded.” If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one.”
Yes: 4 No: 8
The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn’t do something else soon after losing him.
“I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they’ll move to quickly replace him,” a voter said.
Yes: 9 No: 3
On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.
“Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu],” one executive said.
The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt’s ERA has been higher than Rodon’s in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.
“I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value,” one voter said.
“It’s really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet,” another voter said.
Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?
The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series — and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.
“I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season,” one voter opined, “but I don’t see why they won’t again. Bruce Bochy didn’t unretire to sit at home in October. This year they’ll add pitching. You can count on that.”
Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?
Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn’t explain his choice — but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.
“Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board,” one evaluator said. “With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul.”
How much do MLB’s 2023 rule changes impact your offseason’s decision-making:a lot, some or not at all?
Not at all: 6 Some: 4 A lot: 0
Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager’s meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don’t have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.
“Obviously, you can’t hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don’t know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes — both behind the plate and on the bases,” one voter said. “I don’t think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term.”
Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is a National League All-Star replacement, giving the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander a chance to break Paul Skenes‘ record for the fewest big league appearances before playing in the Midsummer Classic.
Misiorowski was named Friday night to replace Chicago Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, who will be unavailable for the All-Star Game on Tuesday night in Atlanta because he is scheduled to start Saturday at the New York Yankees.
The 23-year-old Misiorowski has made just five starts for the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA while averaging 99.3 mph on his fastball, with 89 pitches that have reached 100 mph.
If he pitches at Truist Park, Misiorowski will make it consecutive years for a player to set the mark for fewest big league games before an All-Star showing.
Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander getting ready for his second All-Star appearance, had made 11 starts in the majors when he was chosen as the NL starter for last year’s All-Star Game at Texas. He pitched a scoreless inning.
“I’m speechless,” said a teary-eyed Misiorowski, who said he was given the news a few minutes before the Brewers’ 8-3 victory over Washington. “It’s awesome. It’s very unexpected and it’s an honor.”
Misiorowski is the 30th first-time All-Star and 16th replacement this year. There are now 80 total All-Stars.
“He’s impressive. He’s got some of the best stuff in the game right now, even though he’s a young pitcher,” said Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is a starting AL outfielder for his seventh All-Star nod. “He’s going to be a special pitcher in this game for a long time so I think he deserved it and it’s going be pretty cool for him and his family.”
The New York Yankees‘ Rodón, an All-Star for the third time in five seasons, will replace teammate Max Fried for Tuesday’s game in Atlanta. Fried will be unavailable because he is scheduled to start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs.
In his final start before the All-Star game, Rodón allowed four hits and struck out eight in eight innings in an 11-0 victory over the Cubs.
“This one’s a little special for me,” said Rodón, an All-Star in 2021 and ’22 who was 3-8 in his first season with the Yankees two years ago before rebounding. “I wasn’t good when I first got here, and I just wanted to prove that I wasn’t to going to give up and just put my best foot forward and try to win as many games as I can.”
Mize takes the spot held by Boston‘s Garrett Crochet, who is scheduled to start Saturday against Tampa Bay. Mize gives the Tigers six All-Stars, most of any team and tied for the franchise record.
Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia will replace Tampa Bay‘s Brandon Lowe, who went on the injured list with left oblique tightness. The additions of Estévez and Garcia give the Royals four All-Stars, matching their 2024 total.
The Seattle Mariners announced center fielder Julio Rodríguez will not participate, and he was replaced by teammate Randy Arozarena. Rodríguez had been voted onto the AL roster via the players’ ballot. The Mariners, who have five All-Stars, said Rodríguez will use the break to “recuperate, rest and prepare for the second half.”
Arozarena is an All-Star for the second time. He started in left field for the AL two years ago, when he was with Tampa Bay. Arozarena was the runner-up to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the 2023 Home Run Derby.
Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen, a first-time All-Star, is replacing Angels left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is scheduled to start Saturday night at Arizona. Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts.
San Diego added a third NL All-Star reliever in lefty Adrián Morejón, who replaces Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler. The Phillies’ right-hander is scheduled to start at San Diego on Saturday night. Morejón entered the weekend with a 1.71 ERA in 45 appearances.
NEW YORK — Robbed an inning earlier, Cody Bellinger wasn’t sure his first three-homer game had been swiped away again.
“I didn’t know at first,” he said. “For that third one to finally get over feels pretty good.”
Bellinger hit three two-run homers against his former team and was denied a fourth by a spectacular catch, leading the Yankees to an 11-0 rout of the Chicago Cubs on Friday night.
Aaron Judge made a trio of outstanding grabs in right field for the Yankees, who have won five straight games following a a six-game losing streak.
Bellinger, whose dad Clay played for the Yankees from 1999 to 2001, is a two-time All-Star and 2019 NL MVP.
He spent 2023 and 2024 with the Cubs, hitting .266 with 18 homers and 78 RBIs in 130 games last year while missing time because of a broken right rib. The Cubs traded him to New York in December with $52.5 million remaining on his contract and agreed to pay the Yankees $5 million.
He homered in a three-run third off Chris Flexen and in the fifth against Caleb Thielbar for this 18th multihomer game. Bellinger nearly went deep in the seventh but was robbed by Kyle Tucker on a drive above the right-field wall.
“I was watching it. He timed it up perfect, so I was a little sick about it, honestly,” Bellinger said. “But it was a good catch.”
“Boys were giving me a hard time after he robbed it. Boonie was giving me hard time,” Bellinger added.
A four-time All-Star and a Gold Glove winner, Tucker snatched the ball as a fan tried for it, the spectator clasping both sides of the outfielder’s glove.
“I caught the ball and he caught my glove, so I figured even if I dropped it they’d probably look at it and get it overturned,” Tucker said. “I’ve probably had some encounters with me trying to go into the stands and catching a ball and me hitting someone’s hand or whatever but I don’t know if anyone’s ever actually kind of caught my glove while doing it.”
Bellinger homered in the eighth off Jordan Wicks, just above the red glove of leaping center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and into the dark glove of a kid in the front row.
“The fan just beat to the spot,” Crow-Armstrong said. “He just had a better chance of catching it higher than I did.”
Bellinger, who had rounded first, watched and then smiled when he saw he had hit No. 3.
“Glad the fan caught it before PCA could grab it,” said Bellinger, who met the boy after and got the ball back. “I’ve seen PCA rob so many homers. He’s a freak athlete out there.”
Bellinger is batting .406 over a career-high 16-game hitting streak, raising his average to .285 with 16 homers and 54 RBIs.
He had spoken with his Cubs ex-teammates during batting practice.
“No, no, no revenge,” he said. “Honestly, ultimately it was just fun to be out there. I saw a bunch of guys I hadn’t seen in a while and I shared a bunch of good memories with them for these past two years.”
Jazz Chisholm Jr. and manager Aaron Boone encouraged Bellinger to emerge from the dugout for a curtain call.
“He was a little reluctant, but then the Bell-lin-ger” over the dugout got pretty loud. So I think he succumbed to it,” Boone said. “Belly’s loved being here and loved playing here in a meaningful place to him, going back to his childhood.”
Bellinger turns 30 on Sunday and can opt out of the final season of his contract this fall. With long balls and wide smiles, he seems to have found a home in the Yankees clubhouse.
He tried not to make much of getting the three homers against the Cubs, but Bellinger’s teammates could sense the significance.
“It’s always good to go against your old teammates that you spend a lot of time with, you know, you respect,” Boone said. “To perform right away against them I’m sure probably is a little cherry on top for him.”
DETROIT — Cal Raleigh hit his 37th and 38th home runs in Seattle‘s 12-3 victory over Detroit on Friday night to move within one of Barry Bonds’ 2001 major league record for homers before the All-Star break.
Raleigh hit a solo homer off former teammate Tyler Holton in the eighth to tie the American League record of 37 before the All-Star break set by Reggie Jackson in 1969 and matched by Chris Davis in 2013.
“[Holton] and I are really good friends, and I’ve caught a lot of his pitches,” said Raleigh, who was in the lineup as the designated hitter instead of at catcher. “I don’t think that helped much, but I’m sure he’s not very happy with me.”
Raleigh hit a grand slam off Brant Hurter in the ninth.
“I didn’t even know it was a record until just now,” Raleigh said. “I don’t have words for it, I guess. I’m just very grateful and thankful.”
It was Raleigh’s eighth multihomer game this season, tying Jackson (also in 1969) for the most such games before the All-Star break in MLB history, according to ESPN Research. He also tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the most multihomer games in Mariners franchise history.
Seattle has two games left in Detroit before the break.
“Cal Raleigh … this is just unbelievable,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “He’s already set the AL record and now he’s only one short of Barry. There are two games, so who knows?”
Raleigh hit 10 homers in March and April, 12 in May, 11 in June and has five in July.
“This is a very boring comment, but baseball is all about consistency,” Wilson said. “This hasn’t been one hot streak, he’s doing this month after month. That says everything.”