World Baseball Classic Power Rankings: Is USA or Dominican Republic on top?
It’s World Baseball Classic time! The international baseball tournament is back for the first time since 2017 and features some of baseball’s most stacked lineups maybe … ever.
In its fifth edition, the World Baseball Classic will start on March 8, with pool play spanning Japan, Taiwan, Florida and Arizona and featuring 20 teams. Two will advance out of each pool to compete in the quarterfinals in Tokyo and Miami. From then on, games will be played in Miami, with the semifinals on March 19 and 20 and the championship game on March 21 to conclude the tournament.
Which of the top teams will prevail?
Will Mike Trout help the United States defend its 2017 title? Can Japan win its third championship with Shohei Ohtani at the helm? Or will a stacked Dominican Republic team headlined by Manny Machado and Juan Soto secure a second title?
We ranked all 20 competitors — from those with the best chance at winning to those that are just happy to be there. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle explain the rankings, identify a player to know for every team and give us an MLB equivalent for each of the top squads.
Let’s dive in.
Best chance to win
1. Dominican Republic
Why it could win it all: I mean, just look at that lineup. The position-player portion of the Dominican roster boasts 34 trips to the All-Star Game, 20 Silver Sluggers and six Gold Gloves. The likes of Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano, now in the late stages of their respective careers, absorbed a sizable chunk of those accolades. But this team is decorated with numerous superstars in the thick of their prime — Machado, Soto, Rafael Devers, Julio Rodriguez, Wander Franco, Jeremy Pena. It’s exhausting.
The only question here is how Dominican manager Rodney Linares will divvy up playing time, especially at second base, third base and shortstop, all of which are incredibly crowded. The pitching staff is almost as lethal, led by reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara and featuring a plethora of legitimate, late-inning bullpen arms (Rafael Montero, Gregory Soto and Camilo Doval, just to name a few).
Player to know: Cristian Javier burst onto the scene in Game 4 of the World Series, throwing the first six innings of a combined no-hitter. It was the lasting image to what had already been a brilliant season for the 25-year-old right-hander with a devastating fastball. Javier, originally obtained for $10,000, has since signed a five-year, $64 million extension with the Houston Astros and is poised to take the next step as one of the most dominant arms in the sport during the 2023 regular season. First, he’ll serve as a key member of the Dominican Republic’s starting rotation, which also includes Johnny Cueto and Roansy Contreras. It’s still March, so Alcantara can’t carry this staff the way he did the Miami Marlins’ last season. If the Dominican Republic is going to live up to lofty expectations, Javier will probably have to dominate too.
MLB team they remind us of: The 2023 New York Mets — if they had signed Carlos Correa. The presence of Correa would have given the Mets a ridiculous — and borderline unfair — amount of talent throughout their lineup, to go along with a devastating top of the rotation and an intimidating back end of the bullpen. That’s this year’s Dominican Republic squad. It’s loaded with premium defenders, dangerous base stealers, prodigious sluggers and some of the best pure hitters in the world, all backed by a deep cast of proven power arms. There’s a reason the DR is the prohibitive favorite.
— Gonzalez
2. United States
Why it could win it all: The U.S. is the defending champ and rolls out a lineup that is the strongest it has ever assembled in the World Baseball Classic and includes Trout for the first time. Indeed, while social media has initiated a love affair with the Dominican team and the Dominicans rank No. 1 here, based on 2022 numbers, the U.S. lineup is stronger. Using wRC+, the U.S. team features the No. 3 hitter from 2022 (Paul Goldschmidt), No. 4 (Trout), No. 8 (Nolan Arenado), No. 12 (Mookie Betts), No. 14 (Pete Alonso) and No. 16 (Jeff McNeil). Oh, plus it has the best catcher in the game in J.T. Realmuto, NL home run leader Kyle Schwarber and two of the best all-around players in Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker. This lineup is absolutely stacked and has to rank as one of the best in the sport’s history, whether in the WBC or even All-Star competition.
Player to know: Brady Singer. There is no clear ace on the U.S. team, and manager Mark DeRosa might rely on St. Louis Cardinals veterans Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas in the biggest games, but keep an eye on Singer. He arguably had the best 2022 of any of the U.S. starters — it just came with the Kansas City Royals, so nobody noticed. The U.S. has a deep bullpen led by Devin Williams, Ryan Pressly, Jason Adam, Daniel Bard and Adam Ottavino, but the starters will need to deliver as well.
MLB team it reminds us of: The 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers, who led the majors in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed. Other teams can match or top the U.S. in starting pitching, but no team has the overall pitching depth of the U.S. from one through 15. Of course, we all know what happened to the Dodgers in the postseason.
— Schoenfield
3. Japan
Why it could win it all: Japan has won the World Baseball Classic twice already and returns with what might be its best, most balanced roster yet, featuring a compelling blend of proven major league talent, young NPB stars and veteran Japanese players who know what it’s like to navigate tournaments like these. We know the likes of Ohtani, Yu Darvish and Lars Nootbaar. But Masataka Yoshida signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Boston Red Sox this offseason and is a great pure hitter. Munetaka Murakami has won back-to-back Central League MVPs and is still only 23 years old. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is considered the best pitcher in Japan, coming off back-to-back Sawamura Awards (the NPB equivalent of a Cy Young). And Roki Sasaki might be even better.
Player to know: Major league scouts and executives are already salivating at the prospect of someday getting their arms around Sasaki, a 21-year-old right-hander who throws his fastball in the triple digits and nearly threw back-to-back perfect games last season. Sasaki finished the year with a 2.02 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 129⅓ innings. Murakami, meanwhile, posted a .318/.458/.711 slash line and accumulated a record 56 home runs. Late last season, while talking about the prospect of facing one another in the WBC, Ohtani told Trout he probably wasn’t the best pitcher nor the best hitter on Team Japan. Trout didn’t believe him. Soon, after getting an up-close look at Sasaki and Murakami, he just might.
MLB team it reminds us of: The 2001 Seattle Mariners. Led by a Japanese rookie named Ichiro Suzuki, those Mariners didn’t boast the sexiest of rosters, but they did everything well. They slugged, hit for average, stole bases, played sound defense and pitched extraordinarily well. By the end of the season, they won a whopping 116 games, establishing themselves as one of the most dominant teams in recent memory. That could be Samurai Japan.
— Gonzalez
4. Venezuela
Why it could win it all: Venezuela probably has the third-best lineup in the tournament and is especially loaded in the middle infield with Jose Altuve, Andres Gimenez, Luis Arraez and Gleyber Torres. If it wants to get all those bats in the lineup, it can slide Gimenez to shortstop, Arraez to first and let Altuve DH (with Eugenio Suarez or Eduardo Escobar at third base). Ronald Acuna Jr., Salvador Perez and Anthony Santander add power. Venezuela has had talented teams in the past but has reached the semifinals just once in four WBCs (back in 2009). The team has never had this kind of starting pitching depth, however, with the likes of Martin Perez, Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Luis Garcia and Ranger Suarez — deep enough that some of that group can be used in relief.
Player to know: Acuna’s power was down last season as he returned from ACL surgery in 2021. This will be an opportunity to show everyone he’s back at full strength and still one of the best players in the game — and he certainly has the firepower to carry the offense if he gets hot.
MLB team it reminds us of: The 2017 Houston Astros, who had a deep and balanced lineup, including a stellar middle infield duo of Altuve and Correa. When the bullpen faltered early in the playoffs, they still had so much starting pitching depth that manager A.J. Hinch was able to use them out of the bullpen as the Astros won the World Series. Let’s just hope Venezuela leaves the garbage can out of this comparison.
— Schoenfield
5. Puerto Rico
Why it could win it all: After finishing second in the past WBC, Puerto Rico will try to channel some of the swagger of the 2021 Mets, with a flashy middle infield of Javy Baez and Francisco Lindor, as well as Edwin Diaz lurking at the back of the bullpen. Speaking of swagger: Manager Yadier Molina will channel his unique mix of bravado and intensity in a new role. While a number of key hitters for Puerto Rico are coming off subpar performances — Baez, Eddie Rosario, Kike Hernandez — that also means they have a lot to prove. And Molina has a filthy bullpen to work with in Diaz, his brother Alexis, Jorge Lopez, Alex Claudio and Emilio Pagan.
Player to know: MJ Melendez is looking to build on his solid MLB debut from last season, and he can mash. While he isn’t likely to see a ton of time behind the plate on a roster that includes Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez and is overseen by Molina — one of the great defensive backstops in history — Melendez should figure into the corner outfield/DH mix as one of the few lefty swingers on the Puerto Rico roster.
MLB team it reminds us of: The 2015 Royals. Lots of aggressive hitters, flashy defense and athleticism and a bullpen that can close things out if you get a lead into the middle innings. And, also, a group of starters — led by Jose Berrios and Marcus Stroman — that you just hope can get the ball to that bullpen with the game on the line.
— Doolittle
They’ll be competitive
6. Korea
How it stays competitive with the top teams: Like Japan, Korea has the advantage of being placed in Pool B, where it figures to outclass Australia, China and the Czech Republic to advance out of pool play. Once in the quarterfinals, Korea can attack opposing staffs with a contact-heavy lineup that has surprising pop. Tommy Edman and Ha-Seong Kim will be among the key table-setters, and if Korea can get runners on base, we’ll all see how dynamic this overlooked lineup is when Jung Hoo Lee, Baek-ho Kang and Jeong Choi get their hacks.
Player to know: Lee is the reigning KBO MVP. He’s similar to Wade Boggs, having hit .342 so far in his career as a lefty with ridiculous bat control and contact skills. And his power has been developing as well. Rumors are we could see him in MLB before too long, so get to know him now.
Style of play: A lot of Americans were exposed to the KBO in 2020, when MLB was shut down during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. What we saw was a circuit where home runs matter, of course, but there was also a premium on getting the ball into play and moving baserunners. If Korea goes on a deep run, we should see that firsthand.
— Doolittle
7. Mexico
How it stays competitive with the top teams: Mexico doesn’t feature a lineup as deep as the favorites in the WBC, but there is plenty of punch in a group led by outfielders Randy Arozarena, Alek Thomas, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran. There is also the potential for one of the top rotations in the WBC with Julio Urias, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Urquidy and Taijuan Walker. However, with strict usage limits on WBC starters, Mexico might have to hang on for dear life with an uncertain bullpen, especially once it hits the quarterfinals. Getting sizable early leads will be key.
Player to know: Thomas has been one of the better outfield prospects in the game for a couple of years, and in 2022, he got his first taste of big league ball with 113 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. An agile, pure hitter in the minors, Thomas will have a chance to boost his confidence level heading into his sophomore campaign.
Style of play: Maybe it’s because of Fernando Valenzuela, but the first thing that springs to mind is starting pitching, and that will certainly be key to this year’s run for Mexico in the WBC. But is it also too reductive to say that the baseball itself is just … fun? Last week, according to MLB.com, Red Sox teammates Duran and Verdugo were asked to give a presentation about Mexican baseball at Boston’s spring camp. They brought in a mariachi band for the occasion. You gotta love it.
— Doolittle
8. Cuba
How it stays competitive with the top teams: It’s very simple for Team Cuba: Its stars — Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada and Yoenis Cespedes, the latter of whom has not played in the major leagues since 2020 — will have to get hot and carry the team. Cuba was once among the global standards for baseball excellence, but an exodus of top-shelf talent over the past decade or so — coupled with economic hardships throughout the island and an insular governance that often shelters Cuba from the rest of the world — has brought with it a massive drop-off in the overall quality of play. Cuba, though, will be helped by playing in a pool that also includes Italy, the Netherlands, Chinese Taipei and Panama. Cuba should survive that part of the tournament. After that, it’ll get really difficult.
Player to know: Robert isn’t just the best player on Team Cuba; by the end of the year, we might be wondering if he’s one of the best players in the world. Robert — like Cespedes a dozen years ago — is strong and agile in ways few baseball players ever are. And now, his age-25 season, could be the time when he taps into his true potential. Chicago White Sox manager Pedro Grifol lent his voice to that earlier in spring training, saying: “This guy has an opportunity to win an MVP, in my opinion. If he puts it all together, it’s special.” The World Baseball Classic might be our first glimpse at that.
MLB team it reminds us of: This might seem random, but it’s the 2018 Oakland Athletics, who slugged only .286 against pitches 95 mph and above, one of the worst marks since the new millennium. And if there’s one major weakness for Team Cuba in this tournament, it could be that; the decrease in baseball talent on the island has meant its hitters are simply not used to seeing much velocity. That A’s team, however, was fundamentally sound, ranking among the best defensive teams in the sport that year. The Cuban players won’t hurt themselves. There’s still a lot of good coaching instruction on the island.
— Gonzalez
9. Canada
How it stays competitive with the top teams: If the tournament is moved to Saskatchewan and played on ice? OK, there are a few familiar names here including Freddie Freeman and Tyler O’Neill — and a team of mostly Canadian minor leaguers did beat the United States in a memorable contest back in 2006 — but simply advancing out of pool play and into the quarterfinals would be a huge accomplishment. Cal Quantrill, coming off an excellent season with Cleveland, is the staff ace, but Nick Pivetta had to withdraw, a severe blow to the pitching staff. There are some interesting prospects in catcher Bo Naylor (Cleveland Guardians), infielder Edouard Julien (Minnesota Twins) and outfielder Owen Caissie (Chicago Cubs). Adam Loewen, then a top prospect with the Baltimore Orioles, was the winning pitcher in that 2006 victory over the U.S., and he’s back at age 38, having last played professionally in 2018.
Player to know: Julien came in at No. 100 on Kiley McDaniel’s top 100 prospects. He’s a left-handed batter who played at Auburn and hit .300 with 98 walks and 17 home runs at Double-A. His defense at second base is a question, but his bat will get him to the majors.
MLB team it reminds us of: The 1982 Toronto Blue Jays. Canada has never advanced out of the first round and was outscored 21-3 in three games in 2017. Freeman and O’Neill will have to carry the offense, but the lineup is a little better with prospects and fringe major leaguers like Abraham Toro and Otto Lopez. As much as I’d like to compare Canada to the 1993 Blue Jays, it’s probably more like the ’82 team — interesting but not yet good enough.
— Schoenfield
10. Netherlands
How it stays competitive with the top teams: Teams that eke out low-scoring, close games have often gone far in the WBC. That feels like the formula that the Netherlands will need to stick to if it is going to once again reach the semifinals. There doesn’t figure to be a ton of strikeouts on this pitching staff, but if the team can collectively limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground, an infield stocked with big names — Didi Gregorius, Jonathan Schoop, Andrelton Simmons and the newly enriched Xander Bogaerts — can take care of matters.
Player to know: Brothers! We all know about Jurickson Profar, but what about his brother, Juremi? They’re both on the Netherlands roster. Likewise, Jonathan Schoop is a well-established big leaguer, but have you watched his brother, Sharlon? You can see them together for the Netherlands in the WBC. Finally, the Palacios brothers — Josh and Richie — are both on the squad.
Style of play: We’ll see, but if the squad takes on the traits of its coaching staff, we’ll be in for a treat. Manager Hensley Muelens has Bert Blyleven and Andruw Jones on his staff. So maybe we can expect plenty of unhittable curveballs and off-the-charts defense in center field.
— Doolittle
You never know …
11. Chinese Taipei
What needs to go right: Long known for its success in the Little League World Series, Chinese Taipei has its own professional league that was established in 1989 and has had success in other international tournaments, including a win in the 2019 Asia Baseball Championship. Chinese Taipei has the added benefit of hosting Pool A, which includes Cuba, the Netherlands, Italy and Panama. It’s the most wide open (and weakest) group, so home-field advantage could help Chinese Taipei advance out of the first round for the second time. And if that happens … who knows.
Player to know: Infielder Yu Chang — now with the Red Sox after playing with the Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays last season — is the only current major leaguer from Taiwan, but watch out for third baseman Li Lin, the 2022 Chinese Professional Baseball League MVP who won the Triple Crown. He led the league with a .335 average and 83 RBIs and tied with catcher Kungkuan Giljegiljaw for the lead with 14 home runs. Giljegiljaw reached Triple-A with Cleveland in 2018.
Fun fact: The CPBL plays a 120-game season — divided into two halves. Food for thought if MLB wants to perhaps make the second half of its season more interesting, reduce tanking and rethink a new playoff structure.
— Schoenfield
12. Colombia
What needs to go right: Colombia will need to take care of business against Canada and Great Britain during pool play and hope it gets an outstanding start when it takes on Mexico to open up WBC play on March 11. The top candidate to do that is probably Jose Quintana, but keep an eye on Julio Teheran, who is looking to reestablish himself after some injury woes.
Player to watch: Tayron Guerrero, still a 6-foot-8 hard thrower, is now 32 years old, though he has never been quite able to stick in the majors. That’s probably because he has seldom looked like he has much idea where his pitches are going. He’s in Cincinnati Reds camp this spring, and while things haven’t been great over his first couple of appearances, the WBC might be a chance for him to show that the intimidating reliever he once seemed to be may yet emerge.
Fun fact: Colombia is a little over a year removed from winning its first Caribbean Series, when Caimanes de Barranquilla knocked off Gigantes del Cibao of the Dominican Republic in the final. The star of that win was righty Elkin Alcala, who is on Colombia’s WBC roster.
— Doolittle
13. Italy
What needs to go right: The offense will probably have to carry Team Italy in this tournament. Outside of Matt Harvey, who spent all of last year in the minor leagues and posted a 6.83 ERA from 2019 to 2021, the pitching staff is composed largely of journeymen. That offense, though, could be solid, with Vinnie Pasquantino, David Fletcher and Nicky Lopez providing established major league talent on the infield. Outfielder Sal Frelick, meanwhile, was ESPN’s 45th-ranked prospect heading into the season.
Player to know: Pasquantino, the Royals first baseman, might already be one of the sport’s best hitters, showcasing an elite combination of power and bat-to-ball skills. In 72 games as a rookie last season, Pasquantino batted .295/.383/.450 with 10 home runs and more walks than strikeouts.
Fun fact: Team Italy will feature two brothers in David and Dominic Fletcher. David, an infielder for the Los Angeles Angels, and Dominic, an outfielder in the Diamondbacks system, were born in Southern California but picked up Italian from their mother. They visited Italy for the first time this offseason.
— Gonzalez
14. Israel
What needs to go right: Joc Pederson is the headliner of this roster, but he’ll need some help. Specifically, he’ll need some of the young, relatively unproven hitters to step up. The ones who stick out are Matt Mervis, a 24-year-old first baseman who OPS’d .984 in the Cubs system last year, and Zack Gelof, a 23-year-old second baseman who batted .270/.352/.463 in the upper levels of the A’s system.
Player to know: Dean Kremer is the first big league pitcher with Israeli citizenship. He’s also the unquestioned ace on this staff, after establishing himself with the Orioles last season. Kremer, 27, accumulated 125⅓ innings in 2022 and posted a 3.23 ERA in 2022. Team Israel will need some big outings from him in this tournament.
Fun fact: You might not remember, but Team Israel created quite the stir in 2017, winning four consecutive games to advance into the second round before being eliminated by Japan. And this year, Team Israel has more current major league talent on its roster than ever.
— Gonzalez
Just happy to be here
15. Panama
Player to know: The roster features several major leaguers, albeit no big stars. Pitcher Jaime Barria had a 2.63 ERA as a reliever with the Angels last year but might have to start in this tournament, and Colorado Rockies reliever Justin Lawrence will play a key role. Catchers Christian Bethancourt and Ivan Herrera will have to step up and Dodgers outfielder Jose Ramos hit 25 home runs last year in High-A.
Fun fact: Panama is Central America’s strongest team and has produced two Hall of Famers in Mariano Rivera and Rod Carew but returns to the WBC for the first time since 2009. It went 0-2 that year while failing to score a run and went 0-3 in 2006.
— Schoenfield
16. Australia
Player to know: Aaron Whitefield, a 26-year-old outfielder, got a brief call-up to the major leagues last year and can flat-out run, accumulating 179 stolen bases over his six full minor league seasons. Tim Atherton, a 33-year-old right-hander, is among the veterans of the staff and posted a 3.27 ERA in nine starts for the Australian Baseball League last season.
Fun fact: There’s having the flexibility to use your best pitchers in the highest-leverage situations, and then there’s Team Australia’s approach going into the World Baseball Classic. “Everybody needs to be ready to pitch in the first inning of the first game against Korea,” Australia’s pitching coach, Jim Bennett, said recently. “Literally.” Team Australia will roster 20 pitchers, and Bennett said he’ll use them all in Game 1 if he has to.
— Gonzalez
17. Nicaragua
Player to know: Jonathan Loaisiga has been a staple out of the New York Yankees’ bullpen over the past three years and could evolve into their closer if he’s right. Loaisiga was dominant for much of 2021, posting a 2.17 ERA in 57 appearances. He got off to a bad start in 2022 but bounced back down the stretch and into the postseason. His calling card is a devastating sinker that reaches triple digits and helps him induce a lot of soft contact.
Fun fact: Nicaragua is in an incredibly tough pool it probably won’t survive, headlined by the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Puerto Rico. But just getting there was a triumph. Nicaragua failed to qualify for the previous two World Baseball Classics, going a combined 2-4 in 2013 and 2017. This year, though, Team Nicaragua won three of four qualifying games, beating Pakistan, Argentina and Brazil.
— Gonzalez
18. Great Britain
Player to know: After falling into a career as a big league/Triple-A journeyman, Trayce Thompson broke out as a key performer for the powerful Dodgers in 2022. Before starring for the Minnesota Golden Gophers alongside Kevin McHale, teaming with Magic Johnson on the Showtime L.A. Lakers and becoming the father of Trayce and NBA sharpshooter Klay, Mychal Thompson grew up in the Bahamas. That makes Trayce eligible to represent King Charles III in the WBC.
Fun fact: According to Wikipedia, the British team won the first-ever Baseball World Cup in 1938. That club was managed by Chummy McNeil, a Canadian-born athlete who also played hockey, as one does. Now you know.
— Doolittle
19. China
Player to know: Shortstop Ray Chang, a Chinese American from Kansas City, had a 12-year minor league career and is returning for his fourth World Baseball Classic at age 39. He hit .324 in his previous three tournaments.
Fun fact: China has been outscored 102-18 in its WBC history, but it does have two victories, beating Chinese Taipei in 2009 and Brazil in 2013.
— Schoenfield
20. Czech Republic
Player to know: Former major leaguer Eric Sogard is the guy you will recognize, but most of the team is actually Czech-born and amateur in status — holding down day jobs like high school geography teacher and firefighter. Team manager Pavel Chadim is a neurologist.
Fun fact: The Czechs beat Spain 3-1 in the qualifying tournament to get here, defeating a Spanish team that included several former major leaguers and top-100 prospect Noelvi Marte of the Reds. Martin Schneider pitched 6⅓ innings to get the win — after Spain had posted 21 runs against the Czechs earlier in the qualifier. In its second game of pool play, the Czech Republic gets to face Japan. Imagine jumping from your local amateur league to playing against Ohtani.
— Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
The early returns from the MLB trade deadline are filtering in. The dog days of August are challenging pitching staffs. The Boston Red Sox are humming, the New York Yankees are stumbling and the New York Mets might be crumbling. Yes, it’s going to be a fun stretch drive.
How do the postseason races stand? Let’s break down the contenders into playoff tiers.
Tier I: The locks
Biggest surprise: Andrew Vaughn has been raking since coming over from the White Sox in a trade in which Chicago was clearing him off its roster. Rhys Hoskins might return from the injured list later this month, but Vaughn has hit so well that Hoskins has likely been Wally Pipp-ed and relegated to part-time DH duty (depending on how often Christian Yelich can play the outfield). Vaughn has — so far — provided some much-needed power, which had been the Brewers’ only weakness.
Injury to watch: Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is out because of a shin contusion but should be back soon, and the Brewers probably welcomed the break to limit his innings anyway. So keep an eye on Jackson Chourio, who is likely out a couple more weeks because of a strained hamstring. Chourio had been red-hot in July, with an OPS over 1.000 before hitting the IL.
Player to watch: Brandon Woodruff. The one-time Brewers ace hadn’t pitched since September 2023 before finally returning in July and has delivered six excellent starts with a 2.29 ERA, 45 strikeouts and just six walks.
His fastball velocity isn’t where it was before his shoulder injury, but Woodruff has been locating where he wants, as batters are hitting .111 against his four-seamer and .156 against his sinker. A playoff rotation with Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Quinn Priester, who has won 10 consecutive decisions, looks like one that could deliver the Brewers their first World Series title.
Biggest surprise: Well, there are two ways to look at this. The Dodgers are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto their only starter who has been in the rotation all season. Sitting in first place despite those injury issues can be viewed as a pleasant surprise. Or maybe it’s a bad surprise that a team that was a huge favorite to run away with the National West has to fight for the division title.
The Dodgers have essentially used a six-man rotation all season, with pitchers making just seven starts on four days of rest. Yamamoto hasn’t started on all four days of rest all season. With the Dodgers battling the Padres for the division crown, will manager Dave Roberts go to a five-man rotation? What about in the postseason, when four days of rest is generally the norm if you want to use just your top four starters?
Injury to watch: Just one? While the rotation is slowly getting healthier (Blake Snell is back), late-game relievers Tanner Scott (elbow) and Kirby Yates (back) are on the IL.
Player to watch: With Mookie Betts seemingly mired in seasonlong mediocrity, the Dodgers will need Freddie Freeman to heat up again. The first baseman was hitting .374 with a 1.078 OPS through May but then hit .226 with just two home runs in June and July. In late July, he said he fixed something in his swing, and he hit .400 with three home runs in his first 14 games after that proclamation. If Freeman is back, the offense might be the best in the majors again.
Biggest surprise: The Blue Jays were 26-28 on May 27 but have the second-best record in the majors since, and journeyman starter Eric Lauer has been a key reason. After not pitching in the majors in 2024 and finishing the season in Korea, he joined the rotation for good on June 11 and has gone 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA since then, with the Jays winning nine of his 11 starts.
Injury to watch: The Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract after a 44-homer season with the Orioles, but he has been out since May 29 because of a shoulder injury and hit just .179 before that. Getting back a productive Santander would help boost an outfield that has been mix-and-match all season.
Player to watch: The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber from Cleveland at the trade deadline, getting a pitcher still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He should have two more rehab starts before he’s ready to join the rotation — and the Blue Jays will be counting on him to be in the playoff rotation.
Depending on how Bieber performs, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to leapfrog Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter. Lauer and Max Scherzer will be in that mix, with Chris Bassitt hanging around as well. That rotation depth is why the Jays rate as the heavy favorite to win the division — and at the minimum look like a playoff lock.
Biggest surprise: Everyone knew about Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s defense, but certainly nobody expected him to hit for this kind of power and turn into an MVP candidate in his first full season. He’s doing it despite the highest swing rate in the majors, which gives him one of the worst chase rates. He would have the lowest OBP for an MVP winner. Still, he had his highest monthly batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.637) in July, although he’s slumping in August.
Injury to watch: The big one was Justin Steele going down for the season because of Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is still out because of a calf strain. The Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the deadline to help the rotation, but he lasted two innings in his first start before going down because of a sore shoulder, and his availability the rest of the season is unknown.
Player to watch: Rookie starter Cade Horton is emerging as a force. He joined the rotation in May and had a 4.80 ERA through his first two months but has allowed no runs in five of his past six starts, including his past four in a row. Coming off an injury-plagued 2024, the Cubs are being very conservative with the 23-year-old’s pitch counts (fewer than 90 pitches in his past four outings), but he has been efficient enough to give them five or six innings.
Some of Horton’s peripheral numbers — so-so strikeout rate, not a ton of swing-and-miss — don’t necessarily match up with all the zeros, but he’s limiting hard contact. With Soroka out, Horton is vital to the Cubs’ hopes of running down the Brewers in the NL Central.
Biggest surprise: Kyle Schwarber hitting a lot of home runs is hardly a surprise — he has reached 40 three times — but Schwarber as a potential MVP candidate? That wasn’t on anyone’s preseason scorecard. OK, maybe that’s still a long shot given that Crow-Armstrong’s all-around value gives the Cubs outfielder a big edge in WAR and Shohei Ohtani is now pitching to go with his Schwarber-like offensive numbers. Still, Schwarber looks unstoppable at the plate right now and leads the NL in home runs and RBIs as his OPS inches closer to 1.000.
Injury to watch: Aaron Nola has been on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib and has made a couple of rehab starts, so he should be returning to the rotation soon. The Phillies haven’t really missed him because of their pitching depth, but a healthy Nola will bump Taijuan Walker from the rotation, plus he could leap over Jesus Luzardo as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: Trea Turner hit well for three months to begin the season but went homerless in July, and his OBP dropped way off. At his best, he’s an offensive force who hits for average and some power while setting the table for Bryce Harper and Schwarber behind him. He can also have spells when he starts chasing too much and the offense dries up. The Phillies are a lock to get in, but they need the best version of Turner down the stretch to hold off the Mets in the NL East.
Tier II: Should get in
What they need to do to become a lock: The Tigers seemed like a lock when they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central before the All-Star break while playing like the best team in baseball. Then they lost 12 out of 13 games, and Cleveland got hot. The Guardians are at least close enough to put a little fear in the Tigers.
The lineup scuffled in July, but the bullpen still feels like the key here. The Tigers are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA and 28th in reliever strikeout rate. It’s not good when you’re ranked with the Nationals and Rockies. They added some reinforcements at the trade deadline, but Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero aren’t solutions.
Injury to watch: The Tigers signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract in the offseason, but the 37-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of hip inflammation. After his first rehab stint was cut short in June, he’s trying to get healthy enough to provide a boost to the rotation.
The Tigers traded for Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack, but Cobb could be in the same scenario he was with Cleveland last season, when he made just three regular-season starts but was in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: It has been an odd season for Riley Greene, whose strikeout rate is over 32% and whose walk rate has plummeted from last season (11% to 6%). The home run and RBI numbers are there, although he has been in a deep slump since the All-Star break. Can he be consistent enough to lead the Detroit offense and deliver in crunch time, or will the better pitchers in the postseason exploit his swing-and-miss tendencies?
What they need to do to become a lock: In 2022, the Padres made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader and eventually reaching the NLCS. This deadline, general manager A.J. Preller was again on a mission, trading top prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller to strengthen what was already perhaps the game’s best bullpen. Preller also filled some holes in the lineup with the additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin.
The Padres have the deepest bullpen and a deeper lineup. Will that be enough to cover their lack of power (next to last in the majors in home runs) and a middle-of-the-pack rotation (getting Dylan Cease on a roll would be nice)? Maybe. But it’s clear that to not just lock up that playoff spot but also chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, Padres manager Mike Shildt will have to ride those bullpen arms.
Injury to watch: On Saturday, Michael King made his first start since May 18 after being out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. If King is at full health, having him and Nick Pivetta lead the rotation would pair nicely with that loaded bullpen.
Player to watch: Second-year center fielder Jackson Merrill hasn’t replicated his rookie power numbers, and his OBP cratered in July, when he hit .196/.262/.304. The early returns are better this month, and though the Padres upgraded their offensive depth, they need Merrill to be a force.
New York Mets
What they need to do to become a lock: It’s not so easy to buy your way into the playoffs, is it? The Mets correctly upgraded a struggling bullpen by adding Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto, but now it’s the offense that is going through some rough times. Despite adding Juan Soto and getting a much better season from Pete Alonso (he has already surpassed last year’s RBI total), the Mets are scoring fewer runs per game than in 2024.
The Mets were 21-10 at the end of April with a plus-54 run differential. Since then, they’ve gone 42-45 with a minus-24 run differential. Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have scuffled of late, and Soto has been terrible all season with runners in scoring position (.190/.331/.360). There’s too much talent here for the Mets to miss the playoffs.
Injury to watch: Tylor Megill, out with an elbow sprain, is the one injured player who could return and help, whether in the rotation or the bullpen.
Player to watch: Soto. It’s time for him to put the team on his back.
Tier III: Have work to do
How they make the playoffs: Hit better with runners in scoring position. The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS — but they’re just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Injury to watch: Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) has made two rehab starts. He threw four scoreless innings in the first outing but served up three home runs in the second. His fastball velocity was sitting at 96. He could be in line for two more starts before potentially replacing Logan Evans in the rotation — and giving the Mariners their projected five-man group for the first time all season.
Player to watch: Naylor was acquired for his bat, not his legs, but he is running like Rickey Henderson since joining the M’s, swiping 10 bases in his first 13 games — pretty remarkable for a player who ranks in the third percentile of all players in running speed. He left Thursday’s game because of some discomfort after a swing, but the Mariners said it’s likely just a day-to-day situation.
Boston Red Sox
How they make the playoffs: Keep pitching like they have. While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA. Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.
Injury to watch: Though he’s not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness. He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.
Player to watch: Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (escalators could bring the total value up to $230 million). Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn’t shown up yet, in part because he’s still hitting a lot of balls on the ground. He’s already good, but maybe he’ll be great down the stretch.
How they make the playoffs: Have Carlos Correa turn back the clock. In a shocking trade deadline deal, the Astros reacquired their former shortstop to play third base with Isaac Paredes injured. Correa was having a poor season with the Twins, with the worst OPS of his career, although he has hit better in his first week with the Astros. With an offense that has been forced to play a lot of Triple-A fillers because of injuries, Correa could provide a huge boost.
Injury to watch: Will Yordan Alvarez make it back? The superstar DH has played just 29 games, none since May 2, because of a right hand fracture. He has been taking batting practice in Florida. Meanwhile, Paredes remains out because of a serious hamstring injury, choosing rehab with the hope of returning this season. Center fielder Jake Meyers is still rehabbing a calf strain.
Player to watch: The Astros have struggled to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez because of the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti just returned from the 60-day IL and allowed 11 hits and five runs in 3⅔ innings. He had a strong second half last season, so the Astros would love for him to step up as a strong No. 3 starter.
New York Yankees
How they make the playoffs: Hit better. Field better. Pitch better. Run the bases better. The Yankees are 20-31 since June 13, losing 10 games in the standings and dropping from first to third place.
It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added. Maybe David Bednar‘s five-out save the other day will at least settle down the closer situation, as he’s likely to take over that role from Devin Williams.
Injury to watch: Aaron Judge is back from the flexor strain in his elbow that sidelined him for 10 days, although still serving only as a DH. It shouldn’t affect his offense, but the Yankees would love to get him back on the field defensively so they can use Giancarlo Stanton, who had been hot, as the DH. Stanton is unplayable on defense, so he’s limited to pinch-hitting duties with Judge occupying the DH spot.
Player to watch: If Judge is producing, the Yankees will score. The bullpen has the talent to get hot down the stretch. But suddenly, the rotation has some concerns as well. Carlos Rodon has walked 15 over his past 20 innings across four starts. Even going back to June 8, his ERA is just 4.50 after a great first two months. Is he a reliable No. 2 starter behind Max Fried?
Tier IV: The long shots
How do they get in? Continue to ride Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, figure out the closer situation and have the offense keep hitting like it did in July, when it was better than it had been all season.
Journeyman Robert Garcia had been closing of late, but he gave up two critical home runs to the Mariners last weekend and now that role is once again in flux. The Rangers are done with the Mariners, but their six remaining games against the Astros loom large.
How do they get in? The Guardians looked out of it when they were 40-48 in early July, with the Tigers seemingly running away with the division. But Cleveland has gone 21-8 since then, and the upcoming schedule is pretty soft as they finish this series against the White Sox and then play the Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Six games against the Tigers in September means the AL Central might not be decided until then. The offense, hitting just .224 through July 6, has averaged more than five runs per game since then, with a lot more of the timely hitting we saw last season. It helps that Jose Ramirez got hot right at that time.
Tier V: The really long shots
How do they get in? They’re the seventh team in a race where only six teams get in, so they’ll need to get some help, which the Mets seem to be accommodating right now. But the Reds also need to get the rotation back in a groove.
After posting a 3.69 ERA in April and 3.17 in May, the rotation ERA rose to 4.52 in June and 4.16 in July, but there are some positive developments. Hunter Greene is about ready to return from his rehab, and Zack Littell had a terrific first start with the Reds after coming over in a deadline deal, allowing one run in seven innings with a season-high 15 swing-and-misses.
How do they get in? If the Reds need a little help, the Giants will need a lot of help. They blew up the bullpen, which had been the strength of the team, by trading Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, so we’ll see whether they have enough depth there. Same with the rotation. With Landen Roupp injured and Hayden Birdsong demoted to the minors, the rotation features recent call-ups Carson Whisenhunt and Kai-Wei Teng. Justin Verlander has reeled off three good starts in a row, although each was limited to five innings. They’ll need those three to pitch well behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
How do they get in? In the American League, anything still feels possible. Just look at last year, when the Tigers were already buried at this point, only to reel off an improbable run to the postseason. The Royals would need to leap past three teams to get a wild card, but if the Yankees keep fading, all it would take is a little hot streak to jump past Texas and Cleveland as well.
The Royals will have to score more runs, but the offense had its best month, and it has had a few big offensive games in August. Bobby Witt Jr. has had another strong season, but what if he really heats up like he did last July and August?
How do they get in? They’ve run hot and cold all season, going 16-12 in May and 17-10 in June before stumbling to 7-18 in July. The key will be the offense, which scored 151 runs in June but just 98 in July. Junior Caminero saw his OPS drop 150 points; Jonathan Aranda dropped over 100 points and then fractured his wrist; Brandon Lowe got injured and had just two RBIs in nine games (he’s back now); and Josh Lowe hit .186. The odds are slim, but we’ve learned to never count out the Rays.
How do they get in? The starting pitching will have to improve, as the Cardinals rank 25th in rotation ERA and 29th in strikeout rate. That suggests improvement — at least enough to produce a late surge — is unlikely. Oh, the offense also tanked in July.
It looks as if it will be a third straight season without making the playoffs. No wonder attendance has declined to its lowest per-game average since 1995 (not including 2021) and because that was the post-strike year, the lowest in a non-strike-affected year since 1984.
How do they get in? When the Marlins swept the Yankees last weekend to climb to .500, they momentarily offered a glimpse of hope, climbing six games out of a wild card. Then they lost three of four, so their playoff odds have dipped back to around 1%. You never know, of course, and maybe Sandy Alcantara will suddenly reel off eight Cy Young-caliber starts in a row.
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