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As the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins get set for Saturday night’s game (8 ET, ABC and ESPN+), they are both in great shape to qualify for the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rangers have a greater than 99% chance of making the postseason, while the Penguins’ chances are 73%. But what happens when they get there? And could they meet again for another epic showdown like last year’s?

The Rangers are on track for a first-round matchup against their Hudson River rival New Jersey Devils. The Devils won the first tilt between the teams 5-3 on Nov. 28. Each has won a 4-3 overtime decision in the time since, and they’ll play again on March 30.

Money Puck gives the Rangers a 26.1% chance of making the second round of the playoffs (where they’d potentially meet the Penguins again), 15.8% chance of making the conference final, 2.0% chance of making the Stanley Cup Final, and 0.7% chance of winning it all.

As for the Penguins, they appear poised to take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. The Pens have lost two games cleanly to the Canes and two other games in OT; however, all of those were during the “we have Andrei Svechnikov in the lineup” era of Canes 2022-23 hockey. A lineup without Svechnikov would theoretically be less powerful.

Despite Svechnikov’s absence, Money Puck doesn’t love the Pens’ chances of winning the series, but it does offer a slightly rosier picture than the Rangers’ if they do get past the Metro Division: It’s a 25.2% chance for a trip to the second round, 10.6% chance of making the conference final, 4.4% chance of making the Stanley Cup Final, and 1.9% chance of winning the Cup.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Pittsburgh Penguins
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers


Saturday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings, 1 p.m. (NHLN)
Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild, 2 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, 2 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, 4 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, 5 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers, 6 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, 10 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes, 10:30 p.m.
New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m. (NHLN)


Friday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
St. Louis Blues 5, Washington Capitals 2
Anaheim Ducks 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 4


Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 131
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 55%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 8%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84
Next game: vs. TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 71
Next game: @ TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 8


Metropolitan Division

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 118
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 115
Next game: @ FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 73%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 50%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 6%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 11

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ VGK (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Central Division

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ CGY (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ DET (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 58%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. WPG (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 27%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 78
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 75
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 65
Next game: @ ARI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3


Pacific Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. CBJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 100
Next game: @ SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 93%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. DAL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 26%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 77
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 67
Next game: vs. VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 62
Next game: vs. NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E


Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25

Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16:

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Isles goalie change backfires as Canes go up 3-0

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Isles goalie change backfires as Canes go up 3-0

ELMONT, N.Y. — The New York IslandersIlya Sorokin got the start in Game 3 as a rested goalie seeking to give his team a fresh start after trailing the Carolina Hurricanes 2-0 in their opening-round series.

But things turned rotten quickly for Sorokin. He gave up three goals on 14 shots before he was pulled 7:14 into the second period. Semyon Varlamov, who started the first two games of the series, stopped all eight shots he faced in relief, but it wasn’t enough: The Hurricanes defeated the Islanders 3-2 on Thursday, and New York now faces elimination Saturday afternoon at UBS Arena.

Coach Patrick Roy, who made the decision to start Sorokin, refused to directly address his goalie’s performance in Game 3.

“I’m going to say this: We win and we lose as a team. So I’m not going to go there. But what I’m going to say is sometimes we make changes as a coach because we feel we just want to change the momentum in the game. I’ll leave it at that,” said Roy, who had a Hall of Fame career as an NHL goaltender.

When asked how getting pulled could impact Sorokin’s confidence, Roy deflected again.

“Right now I’m focusing more on the team than focusing on our goalie,” he said.

Varlamov started the Islanders’ first two playoff games in Raleigh, posting a .905 save percentage and a 3.03 goals-against average. He gave up six goals on 63 shots. That included two goals in the span of nine seconds in Game 2, as the Hurricanes tied it and took the lead in shocking fashion during the third period.

Roy justified making the goalie change Thursday because Varlamov had faced 39 shots in Game 2 and the Islanders intended to use both goalies in the postseason.

Varlamov said he respected Roy’s decision to bench him for Game 3, even after he was called back into action following Sorokin’s removal.

“I trust Patrick on the decisions he makes,” Varlamov said. “He’s a head coach. We have to respect any decisions they make as a coaching staff.”

Sorokin, 28, got the majority of starts this season, appearing in 56 games to Varlamov’s 28. But Varlamov, 35, won seven of his last eight starts to lead the Islanders to a playoff berth in April, and earned the crease to begin the playoffs.

Carolina scored against Sorokin just 4:46 into Game 3 as a Brent Burns shot deflected off an Islanders defender’s stick. Defenseman Dmitry Orlov made it 2-0 at 10:25 on a shot that Sorokin couldn’t get over to fast enough to stop.

After Peter Engvall cut the lead to 2-1 at 2:48 of the second period, Carolina’s Sebastian Aho beat Sorokin on another stoppable shot to make it 3-1 at 7:14 of the second period. Roy signaled to Varlamov that he was replacing Sorokin.

After being pulled, Sorokin stood in the hallway to the dressing room, hunched over with his mask still on, looking devastated.

“It’s the game. Anything could happen. It’s not the first time,” Varlamov said of his friend and teammate. “I mean, what are you going to do? You have to move on and then forget about it and then just get ready for the next game.”

After finishing second in the Vezina Trophy voting for the NHL’s best goaltender last season, Sorokin posted his worst save percentage (.908) and goals-against average (3.01) of his four-season career. He begins an eight year, $66 million contract extension next season for the Islanders, who did not make him available for postgame comments.

Before Game 3, Roy recalled how his goaltending coach with the Montreal Canadiens described him and backup goalie Brian Hayward as different kinds of automobiles.

“Hayward was a Cadillac. He was comfortable. I was the Ferrari. I could be a little more bumpy,” said Roy, who then applied the analogy to the Islanders. “We had the Cadillac in the first two games, and now we’re going with the Ferrari.”

Unfortunately for the Islanders, they experienced engine failure in Game 3 and the Hurricanes took control of the series.

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Ovechkin won’t press to get self, Caps on track

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Ovechkin won't press to get self, Caps on track

ARLINGTON, Va. — Alex Ovechkin has just one shot on goal through the first two games of the Washington Capitals‘ first-round playoff series against the New York Rangers, which they trail 2-0.

Coach Spencer Carbery said after the Game 2 loss Tuesday that Ovechkin is “struggling” and looks a bit off. The Capitals need production out of the No. 2 goal-scorer in NHL history, among other things, to get back in the series against the league’s best team from the regular season. Game 3 is at home Friday night.

“I think it’s just settle down a little bit,” Ovechkin said Thursday. “Not good, but sometimes you just have to do what you can do out there: play physical, try to create open space for your linemates. But we’re all in the same boat. We all have to play better if we want to get success.”

Ovechkin’s lowest shot totals through the first two games of a series before now was four (2012 vs. Boston) and five in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final against Vegas. Washington went on to win each series.

The 38-year-old longtime captain and face of the franchise said patience is the key to getting more pucks on net against fellow Russian Igor Shesterkin, who has stopped 42 of the 46 shots he has faced in the series.

“Try to find the lane,” Ovechkin said. “We play against a good hockey team. They’re going to sacrifice their body. They’re going to play hard against our top lines, blocking shots, [be] physical, and we just have to play simple, and if we have the puck on our stick, don’t throw it right away.”

Carbery said he and Ovechkin have had some good discussions about how to get through defenders and be closer to the net for higher-quality opportunities and “attacking as much as he can.”

“That’s not necessarily from the perimeter — getting to the inside, taking a couple extra steps, threaten, change your shot angle,” Carbery said. “And now you’ve changed your shot angle, and now there’s no longer shin pads and a stick in your lane.”

Getting Ovechkin the puck in better positions to shoot is also on the Capitals’ to-do list. It can pay dividends, after he scored just eight goals in his first 43 games this season and finished with 31 after a torrid second half.

Teammates and coaches aren’t worried about Ovechkin and expect him to be able to turn it on. He has 853 goals in the regular season, trailing just Wayne Gretzky, and 72 in the playoffs, one shy of Dallas Stars forward Joe Pavelski for the most among active players.

“He’ll be good,” Carbery said. “He’s been through so many situations like this. I expect him to step up big time in Game 3.”

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Bruins coach thinks Swayman in Leafs’ heads

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Bruins coach thinks Swayman in Leafs' heads

TORONTO — Boston Bruins coach Jim Montgomery thinks goaltender Jeremy Swayman‘s dominance against the Toronto Maple Leafs — before and during their current first-round Stanley Cup playoff series — has started to rattle some players.

Montgomery made that suggestion in reference to an incident late in Boston’s 4-2 victory over the Leafs in Game 3 on Wednesday, when Toronto forward Max Domi appeared to seek out Swayman — owner of a 5-0-0 record versus the Leafs this season — during a TV timeout.

“Normally, I don’t think that [a goalie has one team’s number],” Montgomery said Thursday. “But when Domi goes off the bench and bumps [Swayman] on purpose, makes me think that maybe he’s in their head a little bit.”

Boston forward Trent Frederic — who got the Bruins on the board with a first-period goal in Game 3 — saw the interaction between Domi and Swayman, too. He agreed with Montgomery it might have revealed some mounting exasperation from the Leafs over Swayman’s recent success.

“Maybe Sway is getting in their head; he’s making a lot of saves,” Frederic said. “So, bump our goalies. I don’t know, didn’t work [for them] last night.”

That was ultimately true. Despite any on-ice antics, Swayman downed Toronto once again with a 28-save performance in Game 3 to give Boston a 2-1 series lead. Swayman previously made 35 stops in the Bruins’ 5-1 victory in Game 1, and then was replaced by Linus Ullmark in Game 2 (a 3-2 Bruins loss).

Toronto had better results against Ullmark, but the Leafs still haven’t managed more than three goals in a game so far this postseason. It’s a troubling trend that pre-dates facing Swayman and the Bruins (Toronto’s actually gone 10 consecutive playoff games scoring three or fewer goals) and those struggles have been magnified this time around by their lifeless power play (1-for-11) failing to fire in this series either.

Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe refuted the Bruins’ narrative though that their goaltender was somehow throwing Toronto off its game. In Keefe’s mind, the Domi bump was just part and parcel of this time of year.

“It’s playoff hockey, and things are happening all over the ice,” said Keefe. “With that logic [from Montgomery] you would say every time they bump into one of our guys maybe we’re in their heads”

Keefe also said he sensed “zero frustration” from his team over the low scoring output. The Leafs have generated their chances against Boston, averaging the third-most shots on goal per game in the postseason (33), but they’re also tied for the fewest goals per game (two).

Toronto’s offensive prospects would be helped by the return of forward William Nylander. The Leafs’ 40-goal scorer in the regular season has missed the first three games of their series due to an undisclosed injury. Keefe was asked again on Thursday about Nylander’s mystery ailment and would not confirm reports that the winger is dealing with migraines. Keefe did say the extra day of rest before Game 4 on Saturday does benefit Nylander though, who’s been classified as a game-time decision twice already in the playoffs.

“We’ve been working with Willy to give him the time that he needs to be ready to play,” said Keefe. “And the medical team works with him on a daily basis to see where he’s at and continue to assess that.”

As for who Toronto can expect to see in Boston’s crease for Game 4, that’s another mind game of its own. The Bruins have religiously rotated Swayman and Ullmark for nearly 30 games, dating back to February. Swayman said after Wednesday’s win that for him, “I don’t want rest; I just want to keep playing.”

The final decision will fall to Montgomery, who wasn’t saying whether Boston would stick with Swayman.

“Both goalies have been so good for us,” said Montgomery. “It’s a hard decision.”

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