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You can’t win a fantasy baseball championship without taking some chances.

Whether it’s a player’s injury history, inexperience, year-over-year inconsistency or a skill set or advanced metrics that don’t match his raw statistics, many factors can attract us to certain players, as well as scare us away from them entirely. Deciphering these, in order to make our best estimates on their seasonal expectations, can be critical to our draft preparation. After all, known commodities can provide a strong base from which to build our fantasy teams, but it’s the players with the widest ranges of potential outcomes who can provide us the most profit potential.

Fortunately, this column is to help you on this risk/reward research quest. Listed below are 10 of the players I see as having some of the widest ranges of potential 2023 outcomes. What might be in store for each? Let’s take a look.

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers

The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has averaged 21 quality starts, a 2.05 ERA and 291 strikeouts per 162 team games while on the active roster. In the history of baseball, only six pitchers have had a season in which they met or exceeded all three of those numbers, and not one of them had a WHIP as low as deGrom’s 0.73 in his 162-game, prorated time span.

The bad: He has been on the active roster for only 51% of his team’s games during that time.

Take the chance? Well, deGrom’s 2023 spring training has followed this same peaks-and-valleys pattern, as he experienced side soreness in its opening days then was absolutely brilliant in his first Cactus League appearance this past Sunday. This seems an inescapable pattern, and there’s always the chance the forearm issues he battled throughout 2021 might resurface. He is so good when healthy, though, that I default to “yes, absolutely.” He also has reasonable ADPs of 27th overall in National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues over the past 10 days and 22nd overall in ESPN standard points-based leagues.

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

The good: From 2020 to ’22, he has slugged .576 while averaging 51 home runs, 93 RBIs and 110 runs scored per 162 games played. Aaron Judge (2017, 2022) and Giancarlo Stanton (2017) are the only players who have met or exceeded all of those thresholds in any of the past 15 seasons.

The bad: He has played in exactly 50% of Twins games over that time.

Take the chance? No, but that’s also because it’s tough to trust a player whose team has kept him in metaphorical bubble wrap all spring, and presumably will limit him to DH duty to begin the regular season (while also probably hampering his freedom on the base paths). Buxton’s answer here hinges entirely on his asking price in your specific league, as I have shares in some places where it was reasonable. One sign that it generally won’t be reasonable is that he’s going roughly 40 spots earlier than my ranking in ESPN standard points-based leagues.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

The good: Through his four-year, big league career to date, he has batted .292/.369/.596 while averaging 48 home runs, 116 RBIs, 31 stolen bases and 125 runs scored per 162 games played. The only player in history to reach all of those thresholds in a single season was Larry Walker (1997), who did it as a member of the Colorado Rockies.

The bad: Tatis has played in exactly 50% of Padres games since the date of his big league debut in 2019.

Take the chance? He wouldn’t even be on here if not for his 80-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy, a penalty that ended his 2022 before it began, will cost him an additional 20 games at the start of 2023, and has cast some doubt among fantasy managers about the legitimacy of his above numbers. Nevertheless, Tatis is a dynamic talent — a five-category standout — who has looked outstanding in recent spring action. He has that deGrom-esque, so-good-when-healthy skill set that warrants an easy “yes.”

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

The good: Statcast had Cruz with a 15.5% barrel rate and 29.9 feet-per-second sprint speed last season, which placed him in the 96th and 98th percentiles across the league. He joined Buxton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with at least as many batted balls in play last season who also finished in the 90th percentile or better in both departments.

The bad: His 35.8% miss rate on swings ranked in the fifth percentile and 35.1% strikeout rate ranked in the second percentile among players who came to the plate at least as many times as he did in 2021-22 combined.

Take the chance? Yes! Cruz might be the least experienced name on this list, and his fantasy managers must remember to be patient through his cold spells, such as his 1-for-14, six-strikeout stretch since I published that linked sleepers column. The only reason to hesitate is the asking price, currently a generous 59th overall in NFBC and 88th overall in ESPN points-based leagues, both of which are a tad high for my tastes. Still, Cruz is one of the very few players in the game with the natural skills to join the 30/30 club, one that has added only five new members over the past 10 seasons after there were 49 instances of a 30/30 campaign in the previous 26 years.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees

The good: He’s the king of Statcast hard contact, as in the system’s eight seasons, his 93.9 mph average exit velocity ranks second best, his 17.6% barrel rate ranks fifth best and his 50.9% hard-hit rate ranks fifth best. Stanton has averaged 40 home runs per 162 games played in his five years with the Yankees.

The bad: He has made six trips to the injured list across the past four seasons alone, totaling 223 missed Yankees games.

Take the chance? The Yankees’ lack of outfield depth, coupled with an overcrowded infield that demands the flexibility of the DH role, probably will press Stanton into a repeat (or more) of his 38 outfield appearances in 2022. That will put him at increased risk of future IL stints, and then there’s that career-worst .211 batting average with which to contend. He’ll be the cheapest of these first five, but not enough so to be worth the chance.

Other risk/reward quick takes

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: An oblique strain that threatens to sideline him into May is just the latest of a litany of injuries, and bear in mind that he hasn’t exceeded 111⅔ innings in any of his past five seasons. I’m not a big believer in players fitting that description who are beginning the new season hurt, and Glasnow’s No. 153 overall NFBC ADP represents a pretty hefty price tag.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: A 2021 breakthrough performer, he struggled with injuries on three separate occasions last season, and yet, he’s still going within the top 100 overall in NFBC leagues. O’Neill is one of the more underrated speedsters in the game, with exceptional power metrics in 2021, but he’s a player who would be much more attractive a pick if he slid two to three rounds beyond his current ADP.

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: He’s having a stellar spring training, will serve as the cleanup man behind a loaded top three of the Angels’ lineup and, perhaps most importantly, is going outside the top 180 overall picks in both roto and points-based leagues. Rendon, now 32 years old, is at a stage of his career when injuries are a mounting concern, but he’s looking like a good rebound candidate for the price.

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox: My biggest concern with him is his precipitous drop in Statcast sprint speed, which explains his zero stolen bases from last June 13 forward. Robert needs to recapture some of those lost steals, but what appeals to me are his underrated contact metrics. He’s the player on this list for whom I could most go in either direction, but his current ADP is leaning slightly too generous.

Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: He has had two good spring outings and one mediocre one, with the key takeaway that he’s seemingly healthy and throwing with decent velocity. The level of caution with which the Red Sox treated him last season casts concerns that he might not be afforded more than 140 innings in 2023, but for the current price — 122nd overall in NFBC and 134th in ESPN points-based leagues — he looks like a potentially profitable pitcher.

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Dump bump: Raleigh’s Derby victory lifts ratings

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Dump bump: Raleigh's Derby victory lifts ratings

ATLANTA — Big Dumper helped drive a big boost to ratings for Monday night’s Home Run Derby.

ESPN said Tuesday that viewership for Cal Raleigh‘s Home Run Derby victory was up 5% from 2024, according to Nielsen ratings. Raleigh’s win over fellow finalist Junior Caminero of Tampa Bay drew an average audience of 5,729,000 viewers, up from 5,451,000 viewers in 2024 when Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernández topped Bobby Witt Jr. in the finals.

ESPN says the combined audience on ESPN and ESPN2 peaked with 6,307,000 viewers at 9:30 p.m. ET. That made the Home Run Derby one of the most-watched programs of the day, including all broadcast and cable choices.

Raleigh’s father, Todd, was his personal pitcher for the event. The Seattle catcher’s 15-year-old brother, Todd Jr., was his catcher. The elder Raleigh is a former coach of Tennessee and Western Carolina.

Raleigh, 28, leads the majors with 38 homers and 82 RBIs and is the American League’s starting catcher in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game.

Raleigh became the second Mariners player to win the Derby, following three-time winner Ken Griffey Jr., who was on the field, snapping photos.

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MLB All-Star Game: Predictions, live updates and takeaways

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MLB All-Star Game: Predictions, live updates and takeaways

The 2025 MLB All-Star Game has arrived!

Will the American League continue its dominance over the National League with its 11th victory in 12 years?

All-Star newcomers, such as Pete Crow-Armstrong, and veterans, such as Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, will join the rest of baseball’s best and descend on Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves, for this year’s Midsummer Classic — and we’ll have live updates and analysis from Atlanta throughout the game (8 p.m. ET on Fox).

After the final pitch is thrown, ESPN’s MLB experts will share their biggest takeaways right here as well. Let’s kick off the day with some predictions for Tuesday night’s game.


All-Star Game live updates


The starting lineups


Who will win the All-Star Game and by what score?

Jorge Castillo: The National League 5-2. The NL has the better lineup and will win the game for just the second time since 2012, when Melky Cabrera won MVP honors in Kansas City.

Jeff Passan: The National League will win 3-1. The NL has a far superior lineup to the AL, and in an All-Star Game where pitchers are unlikely to throw more than one inning each, the ability to pile up baserunners seeing a pitcher for the first time is paramount. The NL is more equipped to do that than the AL.


Who is your All-Star Game MVP pick?

Jesse Rogers: Cal Raleigh. I mean, he’s going to homer … that’s a given. He might even hit two. The “Big Dumper” is going to dump a blast into the right-field stands, putting another exclamation mark on an already incredible season. He won the HR Derby, and he’ll win All-Star Game MVP.

Alden Gonzalez: Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’ll have the most productive offensive night among the NL starters and, at some point, make an incredible catch in center field. Crow-Armstrong is 95 games into his age-23 season and has already accumulated 4.9 FanGraphs wins above replacement. He has become a star right before our eyes — and he seems to love the lights more than most.


What’s the matchup you are most excited to see?

Rogers: Let’s start the bottom of the first inning off with a bang, as Tarik Skubal, the starting pitcher for the AL, will face Shohei Ohtani, who is just 1-for-9 off the left-hander. Does the reigning AL Cy Young winner get an early strikeout of the reigning NL MVP, or does Ohtani finally get to Skubal? Not many matchups are guaranteed in the All-Star Game, but this one is — and it’s about as good as it gets.

Castillo: Jacob Misiorowski against anybody. The rookie right-hander’s inclusion after just five career starts produced a stir across the majors, and all eyes will be on him once he takes the mound. When he does, his 103 mph fastball should certainly play in his one inning. He’s as tough of a matchup as any pitcher in this game.


Who is the one All-Star fans will know much better after Tuesday night’s game?

Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres ended up sending three relievers to the All-Star Game, but there was one clear bullpen representative from the outset: Adrian Morejon. The 26-year-old left-hander doesn’t get much notoriety, but he has been utterly dominant, posting a 1.85 ERA and an expected slugging percentage of .263. He doesn’t strike hitters out at the absurd rates of some of today’s most dominant pitchers, but he gets outs. And he’ll probably get three big ones toward the end of the night.

Passan: Perhaps they already know Misiorowski because his fastball sits at 100 mph and his slider is in the mid-90s, but this is the sort of showcase built for him. One inning, let it eat and show that even though his career is only five starts deep, this will be the first of many All-Star appearances for the 23-year-old.

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Rays, if in, get OK for playoffs in 10K-seat stadium

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Rays, if in, get OK for playoffs in 10K-seat stadium

The Tampa Bay Rays will play potential postseason games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, setting up the possibility of a World Series staged in a minor league stadium with a capacity of 10,046.

The move came after discussion of potentially shifting postseason games to an alternate major league stadium, with Miami‘s LoanDepot Park among the sites considered. The Rays are playing their regular-season games this year at Steinbrenner Field, home of the Low-A Tampa Tarpons, after hurricane damage tore the roof off Tropicana Field and rendered it unfit for play in 2025.

The Rays occupy fourth place in the American League East at 50-47 but are just 1½ games behind the Seattle Mariners for the third wild-card spot in the AL.

Commissioner Rob Manfred said Tuesday he anticipates the Rays will return to Tropicana Field, which is being refurbished, for the 2026 season.

By then, the Rays could be under new ownership. While an agreement has yet to be signed, the sale of the team for $1.7 billion to an ownership group led by real estate developer Patrick Zalupski continues to progress, sources told ESPN. The change of team control would not happen until after the postseason, sources said, though there could be a signed agreement in place prior to that.

The Rays would likely stay in the Tampa Bay area after being sold by Stu Sternberg, who bought the team in 2004 for $200 million.

Sternberg pursued a sale of the Rays in the wake of the team pulling out of a deal with St. Petersburg, where Tropicana Field is located, for a $1.3 billion stadium. The sides had agreed to the deal prior to Hurricanes Helene and Milton causing more than $50 million worth of damage to Tropicana Field.

The Pinellas County board of commissioners in October 2024 delayed a vote to fund its portion of the stadium. Less than a month later, the Rays said the delay would cause a one-year delay in the stadium’s opening and cause cost overruns that would make the deal untenable without further government funding. In mid-March, Sternberg told St. Petersburg mayor Ken Welch the team would back away from the stadium deal.

Where Zalupski and his partners — mortgage broker Bill Cosgrove and Ken Babby, an owner of two minor league teams — ultimately take the Rays remains a question central to MLB’s future. Manfred has said he wants the stadium situations of the Rays and Athletics — who plan to play in a minor league stadium in West Sacramento, California, until moving to Las Vegas before the 2028 season — settled before MLB expands to 32 teams.

“If I had a brand new gleaming stadium to move [the Athletics] into, we would have done that,” Manfred said. “Right now, it is my expectation that they will play in Sacramento until they move to Las Vegas.”

Potential Twins sale: Manfred also addressed a potential sale of the Minnesota Twins, which had a “leader in the clubhouse” until earlier this summer. Billionaire Justin Ishbia turned away from the Twins, striking a deal to purchase the Chicago White Sox as early as 2029.

That left the Twins to look elsewhere.

“When it becomes clear there is a leader, everyone else backs away,” Manfred said. “A big part of the delay was associated with them deciding to do something else.”

The commissioner wouldn’t give specifics but believes a deal to sell the Twins is moving in the right direction.

“I’m not prepared to tell you today,” Manfred said. “There will be a transaction there and it will be consistent with the kind of pricing that has been taken [lately]. Just need to be patient there.”

Television contracts: Manfred says the sport is in better position to reach national broadcasting agreements for 2026-28 following the Allen & Co. Conference of media and finance leaders in Idaho.

In February, ESPN said it was ending its agreement to broadcast Sunday night games, the All-Star Home Run Derby and the Wild Card Series after this season. MLB’s other agreements, with Fox and TBS, run through the 2028 season, and MLB wants all its contracts to end at the same time.

“I had lot of conversations [in Idaho] that moved us significantly closer to a deal and I don’t believe it’s going to be long,” Manfred said Tuesday.

Gambling integrity: Though another MLB player — Guardians pitcher Luis Ortiz — is being investigated for issues related to gambling, the commissioner insists the system is working and that legalization has actually helped protect the sport.

“We constantly take a look at the integrity protections we have in place,” Manfred said. “I believe the transparency and monitoring we have in place now is a result of the legalizations and the partnerships that we’ve made. [It] puts us in a better position to protect baseball than we were in before legalization.”

Manfred is referencing gambling monitoring companies and the league’s agreements with gambling entities that inform MLB if they find suspicious activity surrounding their players. That is what happened to Ortiz, sources close to the situation told ESPN.

ABS implementation: Though not all players have outwardly expressed a desire for the ABS challenge system to be implemented full time, Manfred believes he has taken their input on the subject.

On Monday, All-Star starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes were lukewarm on the idea — at least for it being used in the All-Star Game.

“I don’t plan on using them [challenges],” Skubal said. “I probably am not going to use them in the future.”

Added Skenes: “I really do like the human element of the game. I think this is one of those things that you kind of think umpires are great until they’re not. And so I could kind of care less, either way, to be honest.”

Manfred insists the challenge system idea came via a compromise after talking to players.

“Where we are on ABS has been fundamentally influenced by player input,” he said. “If two years ago, you asked me what do the owners want to do? They would have called every pitch with ABS as soon as possible.

“The players expressed a strong interest in the challenge system.”

All-Star return to Atlanta: After pulling the All-Star Game from Atlanta in 2021 due to new voting laws, Manfred was asked why the return to the city and state.

“The reason to come back here is self-revealing,” Manfred said. “You walk around here, the level of interest and excitement with a great facility, the support this market has given baseball, those are really good reasons to come back here.”

Diversity Pipeline Program: Manfred was also asked about his decision to change wording on the league’s website in relation to its Diversity Pipeline Program. He cited the changing times for the decision but stated the spirit of the programs still exist.

“Sometimes you have to look at how the world is changing around you and readjust to where you are,” Manfred said. “There were certain aspects to some of our programs that were very explicitly race and/or gender based. We know people in Washington were aware of that. We felt it was important recast our programs in a way to make sure we could continue on with our programs and continue to pursue the values we’ve always adhered to without tripping what could be legal problems that could interfere with that process.”

Immigration protections for players: As for new immigration enforcement policies since President Donald Trump’s administration took over in Washington, Manfred said the government has lived up to its promises.

“We did have conversations with the administration,” Manfred said. “They assured us there would be protections for our players. They told us that was going to happen and that’s what’s happened.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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