Population growth could grind to a halt by 2050, before decreasing to as little as 6 billion humans on Earth in 2100, a new analysis of birth trends has revealed.
The study, commissioned by the nonprofit organization The Club of Rome, predicts that if current trends continue, the world’s population, which is currently 7.96 billion (opens in new tab) , will peak at 8.6 billion in the middle of the century before declining by nearly 2 billion before the century’s end.
The forecast is both good and bad news for humanity: A plummeting human population will slightly alleviate Earth’s environmental problems, but it is far from being the most important factor in solving them.
And falling populations will make humanity older as a whole and lower the proportion of working-age people, placing an even greater burden on the young to finance health care and pensions. The researchers — members of the Earth4All collective (opens in new tab) , which is made up of environmental scientists and economists — published their findings March 27 in a working paper (opens in new tab) .
Related: Why global population growth will grind to a halt by 2100
“We know rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” Per Espen Stoknes (opens in new tab) , director of the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School and the project lead of Earth4All, said in a statement (opens in new tab) . “Fertility rates fall as girls get access to education and women are economically empowered and have access to better healthcare.”
The study is a follow-up to The Club of Rome’s 1972 Limits to Growth study, which warned the world of an imminent “population bomb.” The new result diverges from other recent population forecasts. For instance, in 2022, the United Nations estimated (opens in new tab) that the world population would reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and rise to 10.4 billion by 2100. U.N. estimates from a decade ago suggested the population would reach 11 billion (opens in new tab) .RELATED STORIES—How many people are in the world?
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Other models forecast population growth based on factors that affect women’s social independence and bodily autonomy, such as access to education and contraception. Earth4All’s model is slightly more complex, integrating variables connected to the environment and the economy. These include energy abundance, inequality, food production, income levels and the impacts of future global warming.
The model predicted two possible outcomes for the future human population. The first, “business-as-usual” case — in which governments continue on their current trajectories of inaction, creating ecologically fragile communities vulnerable to regional collapses — would see populations rise to 9 billion people by 2050 and decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. The second, more optimistic scenario — in which governments invest in education, improved equality and green transitions — would result in 8.5 billion people on the planet by the century’s halfway point and 6 billion by 2100.
The team also investigated the connection between population sizes and the planet’s ability to sustain human populations. They found that, contrary to popular Malthusian narratives, population size is not the key factor driving climate change. Instead, they pinned the blame on high levels of consumption by the world’s richest individuals, which they say must be reduced.
“Humanity’s main problem is luxury carbon and biosphere consumption, not population,” Jorgen Randers (opens in new tab) , one of the modelers at the Norwegian School of Business and a member of Earth4All, said in the statement. “The places where population is rising fastest have extremely small environmental footprints per person compared with the places that reached peak population many decades ago.”
“Return hubs” that would see Britain send failed asylum seekers to another country have been endorsed by the UN’s refugee agency.
There have been reports that Sir Keir Starmer’s government is looking into deporting illegal migrants to the Balkans.
According to The Times, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper met the UN’s high commissioner for refugees last month to discuss the idea.
It would see the government pay countries in the Balkans to take failed asylum seekers – a prospect ministers hope might discourage people from crossing the Channel in small boats.
A total of 9,099 migrants have made that journey so far this year, including more than 700 on Tuesday this week – the highest number on a single day in 2025.
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One dead in Channel crossing
The UN’s refugee agency has set out how such hubs could work while meeting its legal standards in a document published earlier this week.
It recommended monitoring the hubs to make sure human rights standards are “reliably met”.
The country hosting the return hub would need to grant temporary legal status for migrants, and the country sending the failed asylum seekers would need to support it to make sure there are “adequate accommodation and reception arrangements”.
A UK government source said it was a helpful intervention that could make the legal pathway to some form of return hub model smoother.
It comes after the EU Commission proposed allowing EU members to set up so-called “return hubs” abroad, with member state Italy having already started sending illegal migrants abroad.
It sends people with no right to remain to Italian-run detention centres in Albania, something Sir Keir has taken an interest in since coming to power.
With Reform UK leading Labour in several opinion polls this year, the prime minister has been talking tough on immigration – but the figures around Channel crossings have made for difficult reading.
CHICAGO — Kyle Tucker had the fans on their feet, roaring and pumping their fists as he rounded the bases after hitting the go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth inning. His screaming line drive cleared the right-field wall with plenty of room to spare.
The Chicago Cubs went from giving up 10 runs in the eighth to scoring six in the bottom half and beating the Arizona Diamondbacks 13-11 on Friday in one of the wildest games on record.
The two teams combined for 21 runs in the seventh and eighth innings, with the Cubs scoring 11 runs and the D-backs plating 10. It was the first nine-inning game in MLB history in which both teams scored 10 or more runs from the seventh inning on, and the third game overall, according to ESPN Research.
“That’s kind of baseball,” Tucker said. “There’s a lot of ups and downs in this game, especially with how many games we play.”
There haven’t been many games like this, though.
The Cubs are just the seventh team in at least the past 125 seasons to allow 10 or more runs in an inning and win. They are also the fifth team to give up 10 or more runs and score six or more in the same inning.
The 16 combined runs in the eighth were the most in an inning at Wrigley Field, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
“If you’ve seen that one, you’ve been around for a while,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said with a laugh. “It was crazy. You know, we gave up 10 runs in an inning and we won. So it was a wild game, but we kept going, and, you know, there’s 27 outs in a game and this kind of proves it, and you’re just happy to get out with a win.”
On a warm day with the ball carrying, Carson Kelly homered twice. Ian Happ belted a grand slam and Seiya Suzuki went deep, helping the Cubs open a weekend series on a winning note.
“You’ve seen it early — having some tough losses, coming back winning the next day,” Happ said. “Losing the first game of the series, winning the series. Little things like that. Today’s a great example of professional hitters going out there and continuing to have really good at-bats.”
The way things transpired in the final two innings was something to see.
Kelly hit a two-run homer in the second against Corbin Burnes, and Happ came through with his grand slam against Ryne Nelson as part of a five-run seventh. But just when it looked as if the Cubs were in control with a 7-1 lead, things took a wild turn in the eighth.
The crowd of more than 39,000 let the Cubs hear it, but their team regrouped in the bottom half. Bryce Jarvis hit Nico Hoerner leading off and walked Pete Crow-Armstrong before Kelly drove a three-run homer to center. Tucker, the Cubs’ prized offseason addition, came through after Happ singled with one out. Suzuki followed with his drive against Joe Mantiply to give the Cubs a 13-11 lead.
Arizona, which had won five straight, became just the third team over the past 50 seasons to lose a game in which it had a 10-run inning at any point, according to ESPN Research.
“You just got to stay locked in,” Kelly said. “Obviously, you don’t want to … give up 10 in an inning. Obviously, you don’t want to do that. I think the biggest thing is coming back, regrouping and continuing to fight.”
Major League Baseball suspended New York Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. for one game and fined him an undisclosed amount, the result of his actions during Thursday night’s win against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Chisholm was ejected in the seventh inning by plate umpire John Bacon for arguing after a called third strike on a full-count pitch from Mason Montgomery that appeared low.
Minutes later, he posted on his X account, “Not even f—ing close!!!!!” then deleted the post.
“I didn’t think before I had anything that I said was ejectable but after probably,” Chisholm said after the game. “I’m a competitor, so when I go out there and I feel like I’m right and you’re saying something to me that I think doesn’t make sense, I’m going to get fired up and be upset.
“I lost my emotions. I lost my cool. I got to be better than that. … I’m definitely mad at myself for losing my cool.”
Michael Hill, the league’s senior vice president for on-field operations, said Friday’s discipline was for Chisholm’s “conduct, including his violation of Major League Baseball’s Social Media Policy for Major League Players.”
MLB regulations ban the use of electronic devices during games. The social media policy prohibits “displaying or transmitting content that questions the impartiality of or otherwise denigrates a major league umpire.”
Chisholm did appeal the decision, allowing him to play in Friday night’s 1-0 win against the Rays. He started at second base and went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.