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Population growth could grind to a halt by 2050, before decreasing to as little as 6 billion humans on Earth in 2100, a new analysis of birth trends has revealed.

The study, commissioned by the nonprofit organization The Club of Rome, predicts that if current trends continue, the world’s population, which is currently 7.96 billion (opens in new tab) , will peak at 8.6 billion in the middle of the century before declining by nearly 2 billion before the century’s end. 

The forecast is both good and bad news for humanity: A plummeting human population will slightly alleviate Earth’s environmental problems, but it is far from being the most important factor in solving them. 

And falling populations will make humanity older as a whole and lower the proportion of working-age people, placing an even greater burden on the young to finance health care and pensions. The researchers — members of the Earth4All collective (opens in new tab) , which is made up of environmental scientists and economists — published their findings March 27 in a working paper (opens in new tab) .

Related: Why global population growth will grind to a halt by 2100

“We know rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” Per Espen Stoknes (opens in new tab) , director of the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School and the project lead of Earth4All, said in a statement (opens in new tab) . “Fertility rates fall as girls get access to education and women are economically empowered and have access to better healthcare.” 

The study is a follow-up to The Club of Rome’s 1972 Limits to Growth study, which warned the world of an imminent “population bomb.” The new result diverges from other recent population forecasts. For instance, in 2022, the United Nations estimated (opens in new tab) that the world population would reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and rise to 10.4 billion by 2100. U.N. estimates from a decade ago suggested the population would reach 11 billion (opens in new tab) .RELATED STORIES—How many people are in the world?

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Other models forecast population growth based on factors that affect women’s social independence and bodily autonomy, such as access to education and contraception. Earth4All’s model is slightly more complex, integrating variables connected to the environment and the economy. These include energy abundance, inequality, food production, income levels and the impacts of future global warming.

The model predicted two possible outcomes for the future human population. The first, “business-as-usual” case — in which governments continue on their current trajectories of inaction, creating ecologically fragile communities vulnerable to regional collapses — would see populations rise to 9 billion people by 2050 and decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. The second, more optimistic scenario — in which governments invest in education, improved equality and green transitions — would result in 8.5 billion people on the planet by the century’s halfway point and 6 billion by 2100.

The team also investigated the connection between population sizes and the planet’s ability to sustain human populations. They found that, contrary to popular Malthusian narratives, population size is not the key factor driving climate change. Instead, they pinned the blame on high levels of consumption by the world’s richest individuals, which they say must be reduced.

“Humanity’s main problem is luxury carbon and biosphere consumption, not population,” Jorgen Randers (opens in new tab) , one of the modelers at the Norwegian School of Business and a member of Earth4All, said in the statement. “The places where population is rising fastest have extremely small environmental footprints per person compared with the places that reached peak population many decades ago.”

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NHL coaching carousel: Tiers of candidates for the five open jobs

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NHL coaching carousel: Tiers of candidates for the five open jobs

This NHL season might have been the greatest example of, “Well, you can’t fire the players.”

Going back to Sept. 2023, there were 13 coaching changes made in the NHL. Stretch it back to Jan. 2023, and 19 of the league’s 32 teams have changed coaches.

After Travis Green signed on with the Ottawa Senators this week, that left five current coaching vacancies in the NHL: The New Jersey Devils, San Jose Sharks, Seattle Kraken, Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets. The Leafs joined the list on Thursday when they fired Sheldon Keefe.

One wild card this cycle is Joel Quenneville, who resigned in 2021 as Florida Panthers coach. His resignation came after an independent investigation into how the Chicago Blackhawks handled a sexual assault allegation in 2010 against video coach Brad Aldrich that implicated Quenneville and other then-Blackhawks leaders for their inaction in the case. One NHL source tells me they wouldn’t be surprised to see him return next season if a team petitioned the NHL to allow it.

To say there are other options would be an understatement. Here’s a look at the other head-coaching options inside and outside the NHL, from the new stars to the trusty veterans to the out-of-the-box choices.

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Fight night flicks: Bruins, Panthers square off multiple times in Game 2

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Fight night flicks: Bruins, Panthers square off multiple times in Game 2

As evidenced by Game 2 of their Eastern Conference second-round series, there’s no love lost between the Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins.

With Florida’s dominant 6-1 win on Wednesday, the series is even at one game apiece. The Panthers scored six straight goals after the Bruins took a 1-0 lead, the most unanswered goals scored in a playoff game in franchise history.

A whopping 136 penalty minutes were handed out in the third period. It was the first playoff game in which both teams accumulated over 70 penalty minutes since 2015.

The Bruins had 87 penalty minutes, their most in a playoff game since 1988 — 79 came in the third period. Meanwhile, 67 of the Panthers’ 71 penalty minutes came in the third period.

Both teams combined for 17 penalties in the final frame, highlighted by a multiplayer brawl that included a fight between the Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk and Bruins’ David Pastrnak.

While the numbers certainly jump off the score sheet, these photos tell the tale of the intense third period.


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Leafs fire coach Keefe after first-round exit

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Leafs fire coach Keefe after first-round exit

The Toronto Maple Leafs relieved Sheldon Keefe of head-coaching duties on Thursday.

According to a statement from the club, a search for Keefe’s replacement will begin immediately.

“Today’s decision was difficult,” said Leafs’ general manager Brad Treliving. “Sheldon is an excellent coach and a great man; however, we determined a new voice is needed to help the team push through to reach our ultimate goal. We thank Sheldon for his hard work and dedication to the organization over the last nine years, and wish him and his family all the very best.”

No determination has been made about the rest of Toronto’s coaching staff, which includes assistants Manny Malhotra, Dean Chynoweth and Guy Boucher.

Keefe has two years remaining on a contract extension Treliving signed him to in August, which doesn’t officially kick in until the 2024-25 season.

Treliving is scheduled to meet with the media alongside president Brendan Shanahan and Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment CEO Keith Pelley on Friday.

Keefe was promoted to Toronto’s head-coaching role in November 2019 to replace the fired Mike Babcock. Keefe had previously been coach of the Leafs American Hockey League affiliate Toronto Marlies since 2015 and guided them to a Calder Cup championship in 2018.

Through 4½ NHL seasons, Keefe led the Leafs to a 212-97-40 record — with consecutive seasons of 50 or more wins — and playoff appearances in each full campaign. Toronto never found postseason success under Keefe though, bowing out of the first round in three of the past four seasons, including in this year’s first-round loss to Boston in Game 7 overtime.

That defeat in particular appeared to seal Keefe’s fate. The Leafs were down 3-1 in the series and battled back to force a decisive final contest, but Toronto’s perennial underachievement forced management into making a change.

This is the first major adjustment for Treliving since he joined Toronto’s staff last May. Shanahan had parted ways with former GM Kyle Dubas — who originally hired Keefe to replace Babcock after also bringing Keefe to the organization when he was GM of the Marlies’ prior to that — and introduced Treliving in the role shortly after. Treliving opted to extend Keefe before last season began, touting Keefe’s “clear vision and direction for where the team needs to go.”

Now the hunt for Keefe’s successor will get underway in what could be a busy offseason for the Leafs. Toronto has key skaters including Auston Matthews and William Nylander signed to long-term contracts. They want to capitalize on that core with success right now, particularly in the playoffs. The other pieces of the Leafs’ designated Core Four — Mitch Marner and John Tavares — will be entering the final year of their current deals this season. Both would be eligible to sign extensions in Toronto on July 1.

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