Five reasons the Astros will repeat as champions — and five teams that can stop them
A Google search for “Houston Astros” and “evil empire” generates more than 1 million results, with headlines such as: “Are the Houston Astros the new evil empire of baseball?” and “Jose Abreu signing helps Astros approach evil empire status” and “The new evil empire: Houston Astros look to erase stain of cheating scandal.”
Back in December 2002, then-Boston Red Sox president Larry Lucchino tagged the New York Yankees with that moniker because of their run of championships in the late 1990s and early 2000s. New York embraced the idea, playing “Star Wars” music at Yankee Stadium and even staging a legal battle to protect use of the “evil empire” term when used in a baseball context.
Like those Yankees, the description is applied to the Astros for more than just their success on the field — and there has been plenty of that, with a record six consecutive ALCS appearances since 2017, plus four World Series trips and two titles. The one thing these Astros haven’t accomplished, however, is back-to-back World Series titles. Indeed, no team has done it since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas made the Astros the preseason World Series favorite. While they lost Justin Verlander in free agency, they brought back all the other key players and added Abreu. Can they end the back-to-back World Series drought?
ESPN MLB expert Dave Schoenfield considers what worked for the Yankees and gives five reasons why the Astros will repeat, followed by Jeff Passan, Brad Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Joon Lee and Jesse Rogers naming five other teams that can knock off the reigning champs.
Why Houston can repeat
1. Star power in the lineup
The Yankees had Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada and Chuck Knoblauch anchoring the offense. The Astros counter with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena and now Abreu. Which group would you take?
Over their three championship seasons, the Yankees averaged 22.6 bWAR, peaking at 27.5 in 1998 and falling to 17.2 in 2000. The Astros’ top five had 26.6 WAR in 2022, nearly matching what the Yankees did in 1998. Even with Altuve missing the first couple of months in 2023 with a thumb injury, FanGraphs projects these six at 24.9 WAR.
Indeed, if there’s one difference between the Yankees and Astros, it’s that the Yankees didn’t have a hitter of Alvarez’s level. In those three aforementioned seasons, their highest single-season OPS+ was Williams’ 160 in 1998. Alvarez hit .306/.406/.613 last season, good for a 187 OPS+. He followed with 14 RBIs in 13 postseason games, including three clutch home runs. He can carry an offense in October.
2. A dominant bullpen
No, Ryan Pressly won’t be confused for Mariano Rivera, but he has been one of the best closers in the game. Consider that from 1998 to 2000, Rivera converted 89% of his save opportunities in the regular season. Pressly has converted 91% of his chances the past two seasons. The Yankees had more than Rivera, however, with Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza pitching key innings in the postseason. From ’98 to 2000, that trio went 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in the playoffs.
The Astros’ bullpen goes even deeper — as modern bullpens must do. With Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu and Ryne Stanek leading the way in front of Pressly, the Astros led the majors last season with a 2.80 bullpen ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate. All those guys are back, and there’s also depth in Phil Maton and Seth Martinez. The Astros’ starters led the majors in innings last season, but without Verlander and perhaps with the intent of conserving innings early in the season, manager Dusty Baker has the depth to rely on the pen — and then turn it loose in October. In case you forgot: Houston’s pen had a 0.83 ERA last postseason, allowing just six runs in 54⅓ innings.
3. One big addition
After winning it all in 1998, the Yankees added Roger Clemens in 1999 (trading away David Wells). In 2000, they added David Justice in late June and he was a monster, hitting .305/.391/.585 with 20 home runs and 60 RBIs in 78 games. He then dominated Seattle in the American League Championship Series. Abreu replaces Yuli Gurriel at first base for the Astros — and that projects as a big improvement given Gurriel’s struggles last season.
The Abreu addition does more than add an RBI machine in the middle of the order, making it more difficult to pitch around Alvarez. Once Altuve returns, the top five should go: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Abreu, Tucker. They hope to get Michael Brantley back at the end of April. If he’s healthy, the lineup looks deeper than last year’s. Plus, Abreu was known as a good clubhouse leader with the Chicago White Sox, and he’s the perfect guy to make sure the Astros don’t suffer any World Series hangover. He wants a ring, too, after all.
4. They still have an ace — or two
That was what made the Yankees so tough: It didn’t matter where the rotation fell and who started the first game of a series — whether it be Clemens or David Cone or Andy Pettitte or the underrated Orlando Hernandez (who went 8-1 with a 2.20 ERA in the postseason from 1998 to 2000, making him the true ace of that run).
Verlander is gone, but the Astros still have Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as a lethal 1-2 punch. Javier had a breakout season of sorts in 2022, going 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and holding batters to a .170 batting average. Batters struggle to make contact with that four-seamer he throws up in the zone. Then we saw what he did in the postseason: 5⅓ scoreless innings against the Yankees and six hitless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. With more innings added to his workload, Javier should be a Cy Young contender in 2023.
Then add in Lance McCullers Jr., no stranger to big games in the postseason. He’s out now with an elbow strain but is expected back at some point. In October, Baker will feel comfortable lining up any of Valdez, Javier or McCullers to start the first game of a series and that’s something few teams can match.
5. Just get in
The Astros won 100-plus games in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 — including 106 wins last season. They will be hard-pressed to match that mark again and maybe don’t even reach 100 with a tougher AL West. But they don’t have to. All they have to do is get into the postseason and anything can happen, especially with their bullpen. Just look at the 2000 Yankees. After the Yankees won 114 games in 1998 and 98 in 1999, they stumbled to an 87-74 record in 2000, including losing 15 of their final 18 games. Luckily for them, the AL East was bad that year and they won the division, while 90-win Cleveland missed the playoffs. They turned it on in the playoffs — and caught a lucky break when Seattle’s Jamie Moyer fractured a kneecap in a simulated game and missed the ALCS.
Like then-Yankees manager Joe Torre, Baker isn’t going to panic if the Astros get off to a slow start or if the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels push them for a division title. In fact, now that Baker finally has his ring, the Astros should be more relaxed and confident than ever in October. If they can just get there, they’ll be tough to beat. — Schoenfield
Who can stop the Astros?
Perhaps it’s a cop-out to go with the last non-Astros team to win a championship, but give me the Braves. Compared to their 2021 championship team, this year’s incarnation boasts far more talent. The additions: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider, plus Kyle Wright in a prominent role and Ronald Acuña Jr. healthy. Gone are Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson — no doubt two vital players, but, sized up against the half-dozen who weren’t there, not even close in terms of impact.
Losing Max Fried for an unknown period because of an Opening Day hamstring tweak doesn’t help matters, but it’s not thought to be serious. A playoff rotation of Fried, Strider, Wright and Charlie Morton, backed by a deep bullpen and manager Brian Snitker’s canny use of it, will give Atlanta the pitching advantage in most series. And that’s to say nothing of a lineup with Olson, Harris, Murphy, Acuña, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud and more. Talent is great. Talent with experience is dangerous. — Passan
We came within a whisker of an Astros-Padres World Series last year. I’m not sure San Diego was as ready for that matchup as it would figure to be if the teams face off this October, though of course anything could have happened in the seven-game series. The teams look even across the board in 2023, and if they do both survive what will be challenging league playoff brackets and clash in the Fall Classic, there are dozens of small things that could be a tipping point for one team or the other.
If the Padres make it that far, you have to assume their biggest stars will be on point. Not even the Astros can match the lineup foursome of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. The rotation battle probably favors the Astros, but it’s a slight edge at best. As for the bullpen, the Padres will have to solidify it over the course of the season to reach the World Series, but once there, they would have Josh Hader to lock down late leads.
San Diego has spent big to reach its current status as a leading contender, and when you build a roster like this, each current season is going to be the best chance you have to win for the foreseeable future. The Padres have been building for this season for, well, over five decades. If their star power is rolling in October and gets them to the World Series, no one will be able to stop them once they get there. — Doolittle
The Blue Jays’ lineup is one of very few that can rival that of the Astros. Combine that with a starting rotation that might have a higher ceiling, a defense that significantly improved over the offseason, a bullpen that looks better — and can definitely be bolstered further in the summer months — and what do you get? A title contender.
Don’t believe it? Let’s go step by step. The Blue Jays boasted the highest adjusted OPS in the majors last season, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24 years old) and Bo Bichette (25) will probably keep getting better. The rotation saw Alek Manoah emerge as an ace, but Kevin Gausman was a stellar No. 2 who pitched even better than his 3.35 ERA would indicate — and now they’ve added Chris Bassitt to form a formidable trio.
The bullpen is a concern, but Jordan Romano is one of the game’s best closers and newcomer Erik Swanson stands as a respectable back-end complement. And an outfield defense that was subpar last season, with minus-three outs above average, has received a major boost from the additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, two players who should help a fly ball-heavy starting pitcher like Jose Berrios bounce back from a rough 2022. If he does, the Blue Jays might become the best team in the world. — Gonzalez
New York Yankees
The Yankees might not be the trendy, young Jays oozing with potential or the analytically savvy Tampa Bay Rays that seem to pull stars out of thin air year after year, but they still have one of the most talented rosters in the entire sport. Aaron Judge continues to anchor this lineup and the hope is that top prospect Anthony Volpe cements his place as a long-term shortstop for years to come.
While New York still has issues with pitching depth, it signed Carlos Rodon to a massive contract during the offseason to take some weight off of Gerrit Cole’s shoulders. Rodon starts the season on the injured list, highlighting the Yankees’ biggest concern this season: health. If their core contributors manage to stay on the field, this team will be a threat to make a deep run into the postseason and topple the Astros. Much of that weight will lie on the shoulders of Rodon and Volpe, the roster’s two most noteworthy additions this season. If Volpe can meet expectations and provide more offensive production at shortstop, and if Rodon can stay healthy, the Yankees will be tough to beat in October. — Lee
Seattle Mariners
Maybe this is the Mariners’ year, or maybe it’s next year, but at some point, they will overtake Houston as the best team in the AL West — or, at the very least, upset the Astros to advance in the playoffs. First off, no team has repeated since the Yankees won three consecutive years from 1998 to 2000, so picking against the Astros is already a good idea.
Secondly, why not go with the team that knows them best? People may have forgotten about the Mariners’ offseason, but they added All-Star Teoscar Hernandez, defensive master Kolten Wong and veteran hitters AJ Pollock and Tommy La Stella. While those additions may not have been the biggest headline-worthy moves, Seattle doesn’t need to be splashy — it just needs to take another step with what it has. Julio Rodriguez is a true star and the Mariners have a solid starting staff — including a full season of Luis Castillo. They can do this. — Rogers
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s MLB trade season!
From the early deals to get things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity on Thursday, July 31, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for every trade as they go down.
Follow along as ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top. This story will continue to be updated, so turn back for the freshest deadline analysis.
Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor
Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi
Mariners grade: B+
This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.
While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.
Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.
In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.
Diamondbacks grade: B
While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.
Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.
Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.
Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents.
We have a new team atop our power rankings after the first week of the second half. Make way for Milwaukee!
The Brewers were the biggest riser in Week 17, going from No. 9 in our final rankings before the All-Star break to No. 1 as we approach the end of July. The No. 2 team this week? A familiar foe of the Brewers: the division-rival Cubs, who are now one game behind Milwaukee for second place in the National League Central.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers have been overtaken by the Astros and Blue Jays for best record in the league. The Yankees are now four games behind Toronto in the East and sit at No. 9 on our list, their lowest ranking of the season. New York will look to add ahead of next week’s trade deadline (July 31) to make a push down the stretch run.
Where does every team stand in our first power rankings since the All-Star break?
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with analysis on the biggest priority of the second half for all 30 teams.
Second-half preview | Week 15 | Preseason rankings
Record: 61-41
Previous ranking: 9
The Brewers’ biggest strength is self-awareness. They know what they do best and never stray from it. What they do now is pitch well (3.34 starters’ ERA, second lowest in the majors), play great defense (23 outs above average, second most in baseball), run the bases better than any other team (12 base running outs above average) and do the little things right offensively (take walks, put the ball in play, advance runners). The Brewers have won 30 of 43 games since the start of June, and that is no accident. If there’s one thing they would love, though, it’s for William Contreras to revert back to his prior offensive form. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 3
There might not be a bigger need among contenders than the Cubs’ desire to add a starting pitcher. Chicago’s offense has performed like one of the best in the sport, and the Cubs bullpen was good enough throughout May and June to ease concerns about its struggles in July. But if the Cubs want to hold off Milwaukee in the NL Central and make a deep run in October, they’ll need to add another arm alongside Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. Jameson Taillon should return from a calf strain around the middle of August, but Chicago is going to need another impact arm for its rotation. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-43
Previous ranking: 1
In some respects, Detroit’s recent swoon is a blessing in disguise. The Tigers’ lead in the AL Central is still double-digit sturdy — according to Fangraphs, the chances of them winning the division stand at 93.3% — and soon, they’ll get Kerry Carpenter back for their lineup. But the recent losses have fully highlighted the team’s need for one or even two power arms at the back end of their bullpen since the Tigers seem to have a real opportunity to reach the World Series. If the Cardinals decide to trade Ryan Helsley, the Tigers will almost certainly be among the bidders. — Olney
Record: 60-43
Previous ranking: 2
Four Dodgers relievers who were far from expected to pitch high leverage when the season began — Ben Casparius, Alexis Diaz, Will Klein and Edgardo Henriquez — allowed six runs in a span of two innings against the Twins on Tuesday night, turning a tight game into a rout. The Dodgers eventually lost for the 11th time in a stretch of 14 games, by which point their bullpen ranked 24th in the majors in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ OPS. They have been playing all-around bad baseball of late — offensively, defensively, on the mound — but the bullpen is the focus with the trade deadline approaching. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 6
It’s nearly August and the Blue Jays are in first place, atop the only division in the majors with four teams over .500 despite a run differential that suggests they’re six games worse. It’s beyond time to take them seriously. To continue surpassing expectations, they’ll need to continue their brand of ball, which centers around not striking out. Toronto’s 17.4% strikeout rate is the lowest in the majors by more than a percentage point and would be the lowest by a team for a season since the 2017 Astros. The Jays put pressure on teams by putting the ball in play, and it’s working. — Castillo
Record: 58-44
Previous ranking: 5
The Phillies have the starting pitching for a World Series run. They could use an upgrade to their outfield at the trade deadline, but the lineup is battle-tested with star power. The bullpen, however, is another matter. Left-hander Jose Alvarado is eligible to return from his PED suspension in mid-August. While he should bolster the bullpen for the stretch run, he isn’t eligible to pitch in the postseason, so solidifying the relief corps for October — should the Phillies reach the playoffs — is the top priority.
They began addressing the concern this week by signing 40-year-old David Robertson for a third stint with the organization. Expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to scour the trade market for more knowing that starters left out of the rotation in October could instead become contributors out of the bullpen. — Castillo
Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 4
Some team executives don’t place a high value on club culture and chemistry, not trusting something that can’t really be quantified. But those front office-types should at least consider what’s happened in Houston this season: In a year after Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker moved on, the Astros have continued to win even while seeing their biggest stars (Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and now Isaac Paredes) go down with injuries. Moving forward, the 2025 Astros just need to keep surviving — and winning — while they wait for their stars to return. — Olney
Record: 59-44
Previous ranking: 7
Oh, look, another contender with pitching concerns. While there are questions about the Mets’ rotation — from the lack of a true No. 1 starter to Clay Holmes‘ drastically increased workload to whether Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea can rediscover their previous form upon recent reinstatement from the injured list — David Stearns told reporters this week that his top objective before the trade deadline is acquiring help for a bullpen that is operating on fumes. If that doesn’t happen, the president of baseball operations said he will explore calling up top starting pitching prospects to serve as relievers in the majors for the balance of this season. However it’s done, upgrading the bullpen is atop the list of priorities. — Castillo
Record: 56-46
Previous ranking: 8
As general manager Brian Cashman has plainly outlined, the Yankees have holes in their pitching staff that he wants to fill before the trade deadline. But the best pitcher the Yankees add in the coming weeks may already be on their payroll. Luis Gil is slated to come off the IL to make his season debut by early August. If all goes right, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year should provide a boost to the Yankees’ starting rotation for their playoff push. They also could use him out of the bullpen in October should they decide he’s a better fit there. Whatever the role, he’s an important piece for their championship hopes. — Castillo
Record: 54-48
Previous ranking: 12
If you’re looking for the sleeper team in the AL, there are a lot of signs that Seattle could emerge into a dangerous team by September. The talented rotation, hammered by injuries this season, could finally be intact when Bryce Miller returns sometime in early August. Since June 29, the Mariners have had one of the most productive offenses, hitting more homers than every team except the Yankees and averaging about five runs per game. And Seattle’s not done yet — president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is expected to add corner infield production before the deadline. — Olney
Record: 55-47
Previous ranking: 13
The Padres have practically labeled themselves a second-half team, a nod to the 2024 group that won 34 of 52 games in August and September. To accomplish that this year, though, general manager A.J. Preller will have to give them a boost offensively. The Padres have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball this season. The Nos. 7, 8 and 9 hitters of their lineup have combined for a .580 OPS, lowest in the majors. Yu Darvish remaining healthy and Michael King rejoining the rotation are paramount to a team that has seen a lot of its depth get traded away in recent years. Most of all, though, they need a bat — or two. — Gonzalez
Record: 55-49
Previous ranking: 14
Walker Buehler‘s 5.72 ERA is the sixth highest in the majors among the 105 pitchers with at least 80 innings thrown this season, and his strikeout-to-walk rate ranks 95th. He has the fourth-highest home run rate. It’s been a frustrating year for the right-hander. But Buehler posted one of his best starts of the season Monday when he held the Phillies to two runs (one earned) across seven innings. It’s still not quite the high-octane vintage Buehler — his fastball is average 94 mph, nearly three mph slower than his peak years in Los Angeles, in his first full season after his second Tommy John surgery — but his getting on track could make a substantial impact on Boston’s postseason hopes. — Castillo
Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 10
Major League Baseball has decided that Tampa Bay will play postseason home games at Steinbrenner Field if it qualifies. Now, it’s all about the Rays not letting their road-heavy second-half schedule — created to avoid the miserable heat and relentless rain without a roof in Tampa — hijack their chances. Beginning Friday in Cincinnati, they will play 37 of their remaining 59 games away from Steinbrenner Field. That split includes a two-week, four-city, 12-game West Coast road trip in August. That trek could very well decide their season. — Castillo
Record: 54-49
Previous ranking: 11
The Rafael Devers trade was widely hailed as the type of move that could put the Giants over the top, but the opposite has occurred. Since the shocking move to acquire Devers (and the entirety of his contract) on June 15, the Giants are just 13-18 and their offense sports the sixth-lowest OPS in the sport at .685. Willy Adames has turned his season around, but practically everybody else — Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and, notably, Devers — has slumped. The Giants might be able to make additional lineup additions on the margins, but their big move has been made. They just need their hitters to step up. — Gonzalez
Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 18
Manager Bruce Bochy said over the weekend that he sensed a turnaround for the club’s sluggish offense shortly before the All-Star break, with the team doing a better job of putting the ball in play. The Rangers have played better of late, making the question of whether to trade for or away talent easier for president of baseball operations Chris Young. With Jake Burger and Joc Pederson on the IL, executives with other teams speculate that Texas will add a first baseman before the deadline, whether it’s someone like the D-Backs’ Josh Naylor or maybe the Nationals’ Nathaniel Lowe. — Olney
Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 16
The Reds have the makings of a really good team, with a standout group of starters, a dynamic offense and a Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona. But they have yet to find their footing, and at this point, it’s fair to wonder if they ever will. One thing they can do to help that cause, perhaps, is add an outfielder. Reds outfielders have combined to slash only .242/.326/.376 this season. Bringing in someone like Luis Robert Jr., Jarren Duran or Adolis Garcia is the type of move that might finally get this team going, especially with Hunter Greene (groin injury) nearing a rehab assignment. But adding an impact bat seems unlikely. — Gonzalez
Record: 52-51
Previous ranking: 15
The Cardinals finished the month of May eight games over .500 and tied with the Padres for the final wild-card spot. They then split 28 games in June and followed it with 12 losses through their first 17 games in July. With the trade deadline a week away, they find themselves among a bevy of teams occupying an uncomfortable middle space — open to trading away rental players but not willing to fully give up on 2025 just yet, especially with John Mozeliak, their longtime president of baseball operations, stepping away at season’s end. St. Louis will part with some of its best relievers, but its focus should be on doing what it can to find some controllable starting pitching help. — Gonzalez
Record: 50-53
Previous ranking: 17
The D-backs’ biggest priority over this next week is clarity, though it won’t be fully realized. The playoff field is still too muddled. The trade deadline, thus, is too early. And they only convoluted matters with a weekend sweep of the Cardinals. Still, though, the D-backs find themselves far enough out of the race — not to mention injured enough throughout their pitching staff — to make punting on 2025 the prudent choice. A bevy of their pending free agents are expected to be available. General manager Mike Hazen will be tasked with making long-term moves at the trade deadline without compromising the current team. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-50
Previous ranking: 22
With the Guardians in a very different place in the standings this year compared to last season, they are expected to weigh opportunities to maximize the possible trade return for some of their veterans. The player drawing the most inquiries is Steven Kwan, whose skill set would fit a number of contenders, with his high rate of contact, good speed and strong defense. But Kwan will be arbitration eligible for a couple of more winters, which gives the Guardians time to wait — probably into 2026 — for a team to meet their asking price. — Olney
Record: 50-53
Previous ranking: 19
This is the specific time of year when a small sample size matters — when one good outing can make all the difference — and that’s why a small cadre of rival evaluators closely watched Seth Lugo‘s start against the Cubs on Wednesday. But whether Lugo is traded before the deadline or not, the Royals’ primary focus seems to be — not surprisingly — on upgrading their brutal outfield production. That means continuing to give Jac Caglianone the reps he needs as he adjusts to major league pitching. That means looking for opportunities, as the Marlins did with Kyle Stowers, to land hitters under team control through 2026 and beyond. — Olney
Record: 49-53
Previous ranking: 20
Other teams expect Minnesota will deal before the deadline. But no matter who goes — some rival execs are skeptical that the team would seriously consider dealing Joe Ryan — the Twins need to get major league ready players or prospects who help set them up for the future. The front office is stuck in something of a waiting game, with the franchise’s sale still being shaped. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff presumably can’t grow the payroll and take on debt in this period. Resolution of the ownership situation needs to happen before Minnesota can fully build a roster. — Olney
Record: 49-53
Previous ranking: 21
The Angels are among the teams sitting on the fence as the deadline approaches, but they’ve dropped four of six games coming out of the All-Star break at a time when a small sample size matters. No matter what happens between now and July 31, however, what remains paramount for the Angels is the development of their young players. First baseman Nolan Schanuel — still only 23 years old — is having a good season, and Zach Neto has accumulated a more than respectable 3.4 WAR. Jo Adell has 21 homers. But more is needed. — Olney
Record: 44-57
Previous ranking: 24
It’s been another nightmare season for the Braves, riddled with terrible injury luck and unexpected poor performances from key players. Michael Harris II‘s struggles are perhaps the most alarming. The center fielder is batting .214. His .559 OPS and 50 wRC+ rank 159th out of baseball’s 159 qualified hitters, while his 2.8% walk rate is tied for 159th.
It’s been a stunning downturn for a player in his age-24 season who’s only three years removed from posting 4.8 fWAR with a .853 OPS as a rookie — a first year so encouraging that the Braves signed him to an eight-year, $72 million extension that August. Harris’ glove and speed are still valuable — maybe valuable enough to absorb his offensive regression — but a turnaround at the plate in the second half will ease Atlanta’s concerns. — Castillo
Record: 48-53
Previous ranking: 23
The Marlins have turned a corner this season. Since June 10, they’re 23-13 — good for the second-best record in the NL. Zoom out further and they’ve been 35-35 since May 1. Outfielder Kyle Stowers is a legitimate All-Star and franchise player. Eury Perez has looked sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery. Otto Lopez has compiled 3 bWAR. The franchise is trending in the right direction. The final two-plus months is about continuing development, unearthing other future contributors and finishing the year with positive momentum. — Castillo
Record: 44-57
Previous ranking: 25
Besides unloading impending free agents for young talent at the deadline, the Orioles’ other significant second-half move with an eye toward 2026 could be promoting top prospect Samuel Basallo to the majors. The towering catcher (6-foot-4) will likely primarily play first base and DH in the majors with Adley Rutschman expected to return from injury soon, but Basallo’s bat is the priority. He has gigantic power that has clicked this season at Triple-A Norfolk, where he’s hitting .264 with 19 home runs and a .974 OPS in 62 games at just 20 years old. It shouldn’t be long before he’s in Baltimore. — Castillo
Record: 42-61
Previous ranking: 26
Paul Skenes boasts a 1.91 ERA, the lowest among qualified starters. His record: 5-8. Any hopes of building around the game’s best young pitcher will hinge around the Pirates’ ability to add offense, a painstaking process that will continue with this year’s trade deadline. The front office will be fielding a lot of calls about Mitch Keller, David Bednar, Dennis Santana and potentially Bryan Reynolds, among others, over the next week. It is crucial that they leverage them for the types of hitters they’ve struggled to find. — Gonzalez
Record: 42-62
Previous ranking: 27
The A’s have established a formidable group of position players in Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom. But if the franchise is going to take a serious step forward before the move to Las Vegas, it will need to build a pitching staff, and it’s unclear whether the A’s will do that over the next couple of years. Their investment in Luis Severino has been a bust. Other teams say 32-year-old Jeffrey Springs might be available for the right offer. And let’s be real, the ballpark in Sacramento doesn’t foster pitching. The A’s have the second-worst home ERA in the majors at 5.36. — Olney
Record: 41-61
Previous ranking: 28
The Nationals have an exciting core of young position players, led by 22-year-old All-Star James Wood. Now it’s about figuring out which pitchers are part of the future. All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore figures to continue as the staff ace with two years of team control remaining after this season, though a trade for a substantial haul isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Relievers Brad Lord and Cole Henry, both 25, have posted strong campaigns. Cade Cavalli, a 2020 first-round draft pick, is nearing a return from a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of the 2023 season and most of 2024.
However, Gore is the only Nationals starter with an ERA under 4.80 this season, and the bullpen ranks last in the majors in ERA. Discovering and developing the next wave of pitching talent is paramount. — Castillo
Record: 37-66
Previous ranking: 29
Sometime in the next couple of weeks, the White Sox will likely surpass their 2024 win total of 41. While another 100-loss season seems likely, there is clear growth happening with the roster, and this will continue to be the focus for the team. Pitchers such as Sean Burke and Shane Smith and position players such as Kyle Teel are gaining experience. There are teams interested in acquiring the talented Luis Robert Jr. (hello, Padres), and for the right return, the White Sox will trade him before the deadline. — Olney
Record: 26-76
Previous ranking: 30
The Rockies have quietly played better baseball of late, going from winning an abysmal 16% of their games in March, April and May to a more respectable — though obviously still not good — 39% of their games in June and July. The record for most losses in modern baseball history is still within reach, and here’s the thing: The Rockies should not care. They need to approach this trade deadline with a mindset that they haven’t carried into enough of them — of unloading accomplished veterans to acquire as much young talent as possible. Early indications are that they’re wide-open to that, regardless of what it might mean for the final two months of this season. That’s a good thing. — Gonzalez
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