A Google search for “Houston Astros” and “evil empire” generates more than 1 million results, with headlines such as: “Are the Houston Astros the new evil empire of baseball?” and “Jose Abreu signing helps Astros approach evil empire status” and “The new evil empire: Houston Astros look to erase stain of cheating scandal.”
Back in December 2002, then-Boston Red Sox president Larry Lucchino tagged the New York Yankees with that moniker because of their run of championships in the late 1990s and early 2000s. New York embraced the idea, playing “Star Wars” music at Yankee Stadium and even staging a legal battle to protect use of the “evil empire” term when used in a baseball context.
Like those Yankees, the description is applied to the Astros for more than just their success on the field — and there has been plenty of that, with a record six consecutive ALCS appearances since 2017, plus four World Series trips and two titles. The one thing these Astros haven’t accomplished, however, is back-to-back World Series titles. Indeed, no team has done it since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas made the Astros the preseason World Series favorite. While they lost Justin Verlander in free agency, they brought back all the other key players and added Abreu. Can they end the back-to-back World Series drought?
ESPN MLB expert Dave Schoenfield considers what worked for the Yankees and gives five reasons why the Astros will repeat, followed by Jeff Passan, Brad Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Joon Lee and Jesse Rogers naming five other teams that can knock off the reigning champs.
Why Houston can repeat
1. Star power in the lineup
The Yankees had Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada and Chuck Knoblauch anchoring the offense. The Astros counter with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena and now Abreu. Which group would you take?
Over their three championship seasons, the Yankees averaged 22.6 bWAR, peaking at 27.5 in 1998 and falling to 17.2 in 2000. The Astros’ top five had 26.6 WAR in 2022, nearly matching what the Yankees did in 1998. Even with Altuve missing the first couple of months in 2023 with a thumb injury, FanGraphs projects these six at 24.9 WAR.
Indeed, if there’s one difference between the Yankees and Astros, it’s that the Yankees didn’t have a hitter of Alvarez’s level. In those three aforementioned seasons, their highest single-season OPS+ was Williams’ 160 in 1998. Alvarez hit .306/.406/.613 last season, good for a 187 OPS+. He followed with 14 RBIs in 13 postseason games, including three clutch home runs. He can carry an offense in October.
2. A dominant bullpen
No, Ryan Pressly won’t be confused for Mariano Rivera, but he has been one of the best closers in the game. Consider that from 1998 to 2000, Rivera converted 89% of his save opportunities in the regular season. Pressly has converted 91% of his chances the past two seasons. The Yankees had more than Rivera, however, with Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza pitching key innings in the postseason. From ’98 to 2000, that trio went 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in the playoffs.
The Astros’ bullpen goes even deeper — as modern bullpens must do. With Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu and Ryne Stanek leading the way in front of Pressly, the Astros led the majors last season with a 2.80 bullpen ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate. All those guys are back, and there’s also depth in Phil Maton and Seth Martinez. The Astros’ starters led the majors in innings last season, but without Verlander and perhaps with the intent of conserving innings early in the season, manager Dusty Baker has the depth to rely on the pen — and then turn it loose in October. In case you forgot: Houston’s pen had a 0.83 ERA last postseason, allowing just six runs in 54⅓ innings.
3. One big addition
After winning it all in 1998, the Yankees added Roger Clemens in 1999 (trading away David Wells). In 2000, they added David Justice in late June and he was a monster, hitting .305/.391/.585 with 20 home runs and 60 RBIs in 78 games. He then dominated Seattle in the American League Championship Series. Abreu replaces Yuli Gurriel at first base for the Astros — and that projects as a big improvement given Gurriel’s struggles last season.
The Abreu addition does more than add an RBI machine in the middle of the order, making it more difficult to pitch around Alvarez. Once Altuve returns, the top five should go: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Abreu, Tucker. They hope to get Michael Brantley back at the end of April. If he’s healthy, the lineup looks deeper than last year’s. Plus, Abreu was known as a good clubhouse leader with the Chicago White Sox, and he’s the perfect guy to make sure the Astros don’t suffer any World Series hangover. He wants a ring, too, after all.
4. They still have an ace — or two
That was what made the Yankees so tough: It didn’t matter where the rotation fell and who started the first game of a series — whether it be Clemens or David Cone or Andy Pettitte or the underrated Orlando Hernandez (who went 8-1 with a 2.20 ERA in the postseason from 1998 to 2000, making him the true ace of that run).
Verlander is gone, but the Astros still have Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as a lethal 1-2 punch. Javier had a breakout season of sorts in 2022, going 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and holding batters to a .170 batting average. Batters struggle to make contact with that four-seamer he throws up in the zone. Then we saw what he did in the postseason: 5⅓ scoreless innings against the Yankees and six hitless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. With more innings added to his workload, Javier should be a Cy Young contender in 2023.
Then add in Lance McCullers Jr., no stranger to big games in the postseason. He’s out now with an elbow strain but is expected back at some point. In October, Baker will feel comfortable lining up any of Valdez, Javier or McCullers to start the first game of a series and that’s something few teams can match.
5. Just get in
The Astros won 100-plus games in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 — including 106 wins last season. They will be hard-pressed to match that mark again and maybe don’t even reach 100 with a tougher AL West. But they don’t have to. All they have to do is get into the postseason and anything can happen, especially with their bullpen. Just look at the 2000 Yankees. After the Yankees won 114 games in 1998 and 98 in 1999, they stumbled to an 87-74 record in 2000, including losing 15 of their final 18 games. Luckily for them, the AL East was bad that year and they won the division, while 90-win Cleveland missed the playoffs. They turned it on in the playoffs — and caught a lucky break when Seattle’s Jamie Moyer fractured a kneecap in a simulated game and missed the ALCS.
Like then-Yankees manager Joe Torre, Baker isn’t going to panic if the Astros get off to a slow start or if the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels push them for a division title. In fact, now that Baker finally has his ring, the Astros should be more relaxed and confident than ever in October. If they can just get there, they’ll be tough to beat. — Schoenfield
Perhaps it’s a cop-out to go with the last non-Astros team to win a championship, but give me the Braves. Compared to their 2021 championship team, this year’s incarnation boasts far more talent. The additions: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider, plus Kyle Wright in a prominent role and Ronald Acuña Jr. healthy. Gone are Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson — no doubt two vital players, but, sized up against the half-dozen who weren’t there, not even close in terms of impact.
Losing Max Fried for an unknown period because of an Opening Day hamstring tweak doesn’t help matters, but it’s not thought to be serious. A playoff rotation of Fried, Strider, Wright and Charlie Morton, backed by a deep bullpen and manager Brian Snitker’s canny use of it, will give Atlanta the pitching advantage in most series. And that’s to say nothing of a lineup with Olson, Harris, Murphy, Acuña, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud and more. Talent is great. Talent with experience is dangerous. — Passan
We came within a whisker of an Astros-Padres World Series last year. I’m not sure San Diego was as ready for that matchup as it would figure to be if the teams face off this October, though of course anything could have happened in the seven-game series. The teams look even across the board in 2023, and if they do both survive what will be challenging league playoff brackets and clash in the Fall Classic, there are dozens of small things that could be a tipping point for one team or the other.
If the Padres make it that far, you have to assume their biggest stars will be on point. Not even the Astros can match the lineup foursome of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. The rotation battle probably favors the Astros, but it’s a slight edge at best. As for the bullpen, the Padres will have to solidify it over the course of the season to reach the World Series, but once there, they would have Josh Hader to lock down late leads.
San Diego has spent big to reach its current status as a leading contender, and when you build a roster like this, each current season is going to be the best chance you have to win for the foreseeable future. The Padres have been building for this season for, well, over five decades. If their star power is rolling in October and gets them to the World Series, no one will be able to stop them once they get there. — Doolittle
The Blue Jays’ lineup is one of very few that can rival that of the Astros. Combine that with a starting rotation that might have a higher ceiling, a defense that significantly improved over the offseason, a bullpen that looks better — and can definitely be bolstered further in the summer months — and what do you get? A title contender.
Don’t believe it? Let’s go step by step. The Blue Jays boasted the highest adjusted OPS in the majors last season, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24 years old) and Bo Bichette (25) will probably keep getting better. The rotation saw Alek Manoah emerge as an ace, but Kevin Gausman was a stellar No. 2 who pitched even better than his 3.35 ERA would indicate — and now they’ve added Chris Bassitt to form a formidable trio.
The bullpen is a concern, but Jordan Romano is one of the game’s best closers and newcomer Erik Swanson stands as a respectable back-end complement. And an outfield defense that was subpar last season, with minus-three outs above average, has received a major boost from the additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, two players who should help a fly ball-heavy starting pitcher like Jose Berrios bounce back from a rough 2022. If he does, the Blue Jays might become the best team in the world. — Gonzalez
New York Yankees
The Yankees might not be the trendy, young Jays oozing with potential or the analytically savvy Tampa Bay Rays that seem to pull stars out of thin air year after year, but they still have one of the most talented rosters in the entire sport. Aaron Judge continues to anchor this lineup and the hope is that top prospect Anthony Volpe cements his place as a long-term shortstop for years to come.
While New York still has issues with pitching depth, it signed Carlos Rodon to a massive contract during the offseason to take some weight off of Gerrit Cole’s shoulders. Rodon starts the season on the injured list, highlighting the Yankees’ biggest concern this season: health. If their core contributors manage to stay on the field, this team will be a threat to make a deep run into the postseason and topple the Astros. Much of that weight will lie on the shoulders of Rodon and Volpe, the roster’s two most noteworthy additions this season. If Volpe can meet expectations and provide more offensive production at shortstop, and if Rodon can stay healthy, the Yankees will be tough to beat in October. — Lee
Seattle Mariners
Maybe this is the Mariners’ year, or maybe it’s next year, but at some point, they will overtake Houston as the best team in the AL West — or, at the very least, upset the Astros to advance in the playoffs. First off, no team has repeated since the Yankees won three consecutive years from 1998 to 2000, so picking against the Astros is already a good idea.
Secondly, why not go with the team that knows them best? People may have forgotten about the Mariners’ offseason, but they added All-Star Teoscar Hernandez, defensive master Kolten Wong and veteran hitters AJ Pollock and Tommy La Stella. While those additions may not have been the biggest headline-worthy moves, Seattle doesn’t need to be splashy — it just needs to take another step with what it has. Julio Rodriguez is a true star and the Mariners have a solid starting staff — including a full season of Luis Castillo. They can do this. — Rogers
CINCINNATI — Christian Yelich had two homers among his four hits and drove in five runs as the Milwaukee Brewers overcame a seven-run deficit to beat the Cincinnati Reds 10-8 Friday night for their club record-tying 13th straight victory.
The Brewers became the first team in 94 years to extend a double-digit win streak with a comeback win of seven or more runs, according to ESPN Research.
The Reds chased Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski – making his first start since July 28 – with a seven-run seventh inning to take an 8-1 lead.
Yelich homered leading off the second against Nick Martinez for Milwaukee’s first run. He had an RBI double in the third before Andrew Vaughn hit his 14th homer – a three-run shot – and Brice Turang‘s RBI double to cut it to 8-6. Yelich had a two-run single in the fourth to tie it at 8-all and then hit his 26th homer – a one-out, solo shot off Scott Barlow (6-1) in the sixth to give the Brewers the lead.
Yelich did his damage with a bat honoring the late Bob Uecker. It had the home run call of the former catcher and longtime Brewers’ announcer written on it.
This was also Yelich’s third career game with four hits and two home runs, tying Ryan Braun and Willy Adames for most in franchise history, according to ESPN Research.
Brandon Lockridge went 3 for 5 and doubled off Sam Moll with two outs in the seventh before scoring on a wild pitch for an insurance run.
Misiorowski loaded the bases with one out in the second on a hit batter and two walks and left after walking Spencer Steer to force in a run. Elly De La Cruz had the first hit in the inning – a two-run double off DL Hall for a 4-1 lead. Four straight singles increased the lead to 8-1.
Misiorowski was charged with five runs on four hits and three walks in 1 1/3 innings hours after coming off the injured list. Nick Mears (4-3) pitched a scoreless fifth. Trevor Megill struck out two in the ninth for his 29th save. Six relievers combined to retire the final 23 Reds in order.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
LOS ANGELES — Third baseman Max Muncy was diagnosed with a Grade 1 oblique strain and landed on the injured list Friday, a major blow to a Los Angeles Dodgers team that finds itself fading in the standings.
Muncy was originally a late scratch from Wednesday’s lineup after feeling soreness in his right side during pregame batting practice. The Dodgers’ hope was that sitting out for the finale from Angel Stadium, then getting extra rest during the Thursday off day, would allow Muncy to return for a critical series against the division-rival San Diego Padres, who have taken a one-game lead in the National League West.
But Muncy will miss this weekend’s series from Dodger Stadium, as well as the following series from San Diego’s Petco Park next weekend.
“I don’t think anyone expects it to be season-ending,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, “but hopefully it’s sooner than later.”
Roberts doesn’t believe the current oblique injury is as bad as the one that forced Muncy to miss about two months last year, but even in a best-case scenario, the Dodgers might be without their third baseman and left-handed power hitter until around mid-September.
Muncy got off to a bad start this year before turning it on in the middle of May, slashing .312/.438/.616 with 11 home runs in a stretch of 41 games. Muncy then injured his left knee during a scary collision at third base and wound up missing most of July. He returned Aug. 4, went 8-for-23 with four home runs over the course of eight games, and now he’s out again — at a time when the reigning World Series champs could really use some reinforcements.
The Dodgers held a nine-game lead in the NL West as of July 3 and have since gone 12-21 to fall a game back of a surging Padres team that arrived in L.A. on the heels of a five-game winning streak. As many as six high-leverage relievers reside on the Dodgers’ IL, though three of them — Michael Kopech, Kirby Yates and Tanner Scott — are nearing returns. The offense, meanwhile, has been mostly unproductive over the past six weeks, posting an 0.708 OPS that ranks 22nd in the major leagues.
During Muncy’s absence, the Dodgers will use Alex Freeland, a switch-hitting rookie who’s batting .176 in his first 12 games, and Buddy Kennedy, a right-handed-hitting journeyman with a career .193 batting average. Other potential reinforcements like Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim and Enrique Hernandez remain on the IL and aren’t close enough to a return.
“It’s certainly a tough loss,” Roberts said. “I think it’s just guys got to continue to perform to their abilities. It’s hard to kind of backfill Max, what he means, as far as the plate discipline, the slug, the on-base, all that stuff. I feel good about our lineup, the guys that we have, and they just have to go out there and take good at-bats. That’s all we can do right now.”
The Phillies said that initial X-rays were negative and that Duran would be evaluated further Saturday.
Pitching in a non-save situation after four days off, Duran began the ninth by facing Paul DeJong, who hit a sharp grounder to the mound on his fourth pitch. The ball deflected off Duran’s foot and into foul territory for a single.
Duran ran toward the ball but began limping as he approached the foul line. After a lengthy visit by team trainers, he took a seat in the Nationals’ bullpen cart and was driven off the field.
“He ran like a shot to retrieve the ball, and once he got there, I think the adrenaline wore off and the pain set in,” Thomson said. “But before the cart came out, he said, ‘I actually feel better, I think I can walk over to the dugout.’ But we got all these steps up here, so we just wanted to use the cart and take him all the way around, so he didn’t have to go up the steps.”
Acquired from Minnesota at the trade deadline, Duran is 4-for-4 in save opportunities with the Phillies.