Five reasons the Astros will repeat as champions — and five teams that can stop them
A Google search for “Houston Astros” and “evil empire” generates more than 1 million results, with headlines such as: “Are the Houston Astros the new evil empire of baseball?” and “Jose Abreu signing helps Astros approach evil empire status” and “The new evil empire: Houston Astros look to erase stain of cheating scandal.”
Back in December 2002, then-Boston Red Sox president Larry Lucchino tagged the New York Yankees with that moniker because of their run of championships in the late 1990s and early 2000s. New York embraced the idea, playing “Star Wars” music at Yankee Stadium and even staging a legal battle to protect use of the “evil empire” term when used in a baseball context.
Like those Yankees, the description is applied to the Astros for more than just their success on the field — and there has been plenty of that, with a record six consecutive ALCS appearances since 2017, plus four World Series trips and two titles. The one thing these Astros haven’t accomplished, however, is back-to-back World Series titles. Indeed, no team has done it since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas made the Astros the preseason World Series favorite. While they lost Justin Verlander in free agency, they brought back all the other key players and added Abreu. Can they end the back-to-back World Series drought?
ESPN MLB expert Dave Schoenfield considers what worked for the Yankees and gives five reasons why the Astros will repeat, followed by Jeff Passan, Brad Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Joon Lee and Jesse Rogers naming five other teams that can knock off the reigning champs.
Why Houston can repeat
1. Star power in the lineup
The Yankees had Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada and Chuck Knoblauch anchoring the offense. The Astros counter with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena and now Abreu. Which group would you take?
Over their three championship seasons, the Yankees averaged 22.6 bWAR, peaking at 27.5 in 1998 and falling to 17.2 in 2000. The Astros’ top five had 26.6 WAR in 2022, nearly matching what the Yankees did in 1998. Even with Altuve missing the first couple of months in 2023 with a thumb injury, FanGraphs projects these six at 24.9 WAR.
Indeed, if there’s one difference between the Yankees and Astros, it’s that the Yankees didn’t have a hitter of Alvarez’s level. In those three aforementioned seasons, their highest single-season OPS+ was Williams’ 160 in 1998. Alvarez hit .306/.406/.613 last season, good for a 187 OPS+. He followed with 14 RBIs in 13 postseason games, including three clutch home runs. He can carry an offense in October.
2. A dominant bullpen
No, Ryan Pressly won’t be confused for Mariano Rivera, but he has been one of the best closers in the game. Consider that from 1998 to 2000, Rivera converted 89% of his save opportunities in the regular season. Pressly has converted 91% of his chances the past two seasons. The Yankees had more than Rivera, however, with Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza pitching key innings in the postseason. From ’98 to 2000, that trio went 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in the playoffs.
The Astros’ bullpen goes even deeper — as modern bullpens must do. With Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu and Ryne Stanek leading the way in front of Pressly, the Astros led the majors last season with a 2.80 bullpen ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate. All those guys are back, and there’s also depth in Phil Maton and Seth Martinez. The Astros’ starters led the majors in innings last season, but without Verlander and perhaps with the intent of conserving innings early in the season, manager Dusty Baker has the depth to rely on the pen — and then turn it loose in October. In case you forgot: Houston’s pen had a 0.83 ERA last postseason, allowing just six runs in 54⅓ innings.
3. One big addition
After winning it all in 1998, the Yankees added Roger Clemens in 1999 (trading away David Wells). In 2000, they added David Justice in late June and he was a monster, hitting .305/.391/.585 with 20 home runs and 60 RBIs in 78 games. He then dominated Seattle in the American League Championship Series. Abreu replaces Yuli Gurriel at first base for the Astros — and that projects as a big improvement given Gurriel’s struggles last season.
The Abreu addition does more than add an RBI machine in the middle of the order, making it more difficult to pitch around Alvarez. Once Altuve returns, the top five should go: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Abreu, Tucker. They hope to get Michael Brantley back at the end of April. If he’s healthy, the lineup looks deeper than last year’s. Plus, Abreu was known as a good clubhouse leader with the Chicago White Sox, and he’s the perfect guy to make sure the Astros don’t suffer any World Series hangover. He wants a ring, too, after all.
4. They still have an ace — or two
That was what made the Yankees so tough: It didn’t matter where the rotation fell and who started the first game of a series — whether it be Clemens or David Cone or Andy Pettitte or the underrated Orlando Hernandez (who went 8-1 with a 2.20 ERA in the postseason from 1998 to 2000, making him the true ace of that run).
Verlander is gone, but the Astros still have Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as a lethal 1-2 punch. Javier had a breakout season of sorts in 2022, going 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and holding batters to a .170 batting average. Batters struggle to make contact with that four-seamer he throws up in the zone. Then we saw what he did in the postseason: 5⅓ scoreless innings against the Yankees and six hitless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. With more innings added to his workload, Javier should be a Cy Young contender in 2023.
Then add in Lance McCullers Jr., no stranger to big games in the postseason. He’s out now with an elbow strain but is expected back at some point. In October, Baker will feel comfortable lining up any of Valdez, Javier or McCullers to start the first game of a series and that’s something few teams can match.
5. Just get in
The Astros won 100-plus games in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 — including 106 wins last season. They will be hard-pressed to match that mark again and maybe don’t even reach 100 with a tougher AL West. But they don’t have to. All they have to do is get into the postseason and anything can happen, especially with their bullpen. Just look at the 2000 Yankees. After the Yankees won 114 games in 1998 and 98 in 1999, they stumbled to an 87-74 record in 2000, including losing 15 of their final 18 games. Luckily for them, the AL East was bad that year and they won the division, while 90-win Cleveland missed the playoffs. They turned it on in the playoffs — and caught a lucky break when Seattle’s Jamie Moyer fractured a kneecap in a simulated game and missed the ALCS.
Like then-Yankees manager Joe Torre, Baker isn’t going to panic if the Astros get off to a slow start or if the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels push them for a division title. In fact, now that Baker finally has his ring, the Astros should be more relaxed and confident than ever in October. If they can just get there, they’ll be tough to beat. — Schoenfield
Who can stop the Astros?
Perhaps it’s a cop-out to go with the last non-Astros team to win a championship, but give me the Braves. Compared to their 2021 championship team, this year’s incarnation boasts far more talent. The additions: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider, plus Kyle Wright in a prominent role and Ronald Acuña Jr. healthy. Gone are Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson — no doubt two vital players, but, sized up against the half-dozen who weren’t there, not even close in terms of impact.
Losing Max Fried for an unknown period because of an Opening Day hamstring tweak doesn’t help matters, but it’s not thought to be serious. A playoff rotation of Fried, Strider, Wright and Charlie Morton, backed by a deep bullpen and manager Brian Snitker’s canny use of it, will give Atlanta the pitching advantage in most series. And that’s to say nothing of a lineup with Olson, Harris, Murphy, Acuña, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud and more. Talent is great. Talent with experience is dangerous. — Passan
We came within a whisker of an Astros-Padres World Series last year. I’m not sure San Diego was as ready for that matchup as it would figure to be if the teams face off this October, though of course anything could have happened in the seven-game series. The teams look even across the board in 2023, and if they do both survive what will be challenging league playoff brackets and clash in the Fall Classic, there are dozens of small things that could be a tipping point for one team or the other.
If the Padres make it that far, you have to assume their biggest stars will be on point. Not even the Astros can match the lineup foursome of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. The rotation battle probably favors the Astros, but it’s a slight edge at best. As for the bullpen, the Padres will have to solidify it over the course of the season to reach the World Series, but once there, they would have Josh Hader to lock down late leads.
San Diego has spent big to reach its current status as a leading contender, and when you build a roster like this, each current season is going to be the best chance you have to win for the foreseeable future. The Padres have been building for this season for, well, over five decades. If their star power is rolling in October and gets them to the World Series, no one will be able to stop them once they get there. — Doolittle
The Blue Jays’ lineup is one of very few that can rival that of the Astros. Combine that with a starting rotation that might have a higher ceiling, a defense that significantly improved over the offseason, a bullpen that looks better — and can definitely be bolstered further in the summer months — and what do you get? A title contender.
Don’t believe it? Let’s go step by step. The Blue Jays boasted the highest adjusted OPS in the majors last season, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24 years old) and Bo Bichette (25) will probably keep getting better. The rotation saw Alek Manoah emerge as an ace, but Kevin Gausman was a stellar No. 2 who pitched even better than his 3.35 ERA would indicate — and now they’ve added Chris Bassitt to form a formidable trio.
The bullpen is a concern, but Jordan Romano is one of the game’s best closers and newcomer Erik Swanson stands as a respectable back-end complement. And an outfield defense that was subpar last season, with minus-three outs above average, has received a major boost from the additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, two players who should help a fly ball-heavy starting pitcher like Jose Berrios bounce back from a rough 2022. If he does, the Blue Jays might become the best team in the world. — Gonzalez
New York Yankees
The Yankees might not be the trendy, young Jays oozing with potential or the analytically savvy Tampa Bay Rays that seem to pull stars out of thin air year after year, but they still have one of the most talented rosters in the entire sport. Aaron Judge continues to anchor this lineup and the hope is that top prospect Anthony Volpe cements his place as a long-term shortstop for years to come.
While New York still has issues with pitching depth, it signed Carlos Rodon to a massive contract during the offseason to take some weight off of Gerrit Cole’s shoulders. Rodon starts the season on the injured list, highlighting the Yankees’ biggest concern this season: health. If their core contributors manage to stay on the field, this team will be a threat to make a deep run into the postseason and topple the Astros. Much of that weight will lie on the shoulders of Rodon and Volpe, the roster’s two most noteworthy additions this season. If Volpe can meet expectations and provide more offensive production at shortstop, and if Rodon can stay healthy, the Yankees will be tough to beat in October. — Lee
Seattle Mariners
Maybe this is the Mariners’ year, or maybe it’s next year, but at some point, they will overtake Houston as the best team in the AL West — or, at the very least, upset the Astros to advance in the playoffs. First off, no team has repeated since the Yankees won three consecutive years from 1998 to 2000, so picking against the Astros is already a good idea.
Secondly, why not go with the team that knows them best? People may have forgotten about the Mariners’ offseason, but they added All-Star Teoscar Hernandez, defensive master Kolten Wong and veteran hitters AJ Pollock and Tommy La Stella. While those additions may not have been the biggest headline-worthy moves, Seattle doesn’t need to be splashy — it just needs to take another step with what it has. Julio Rodriguez is a true star and the Mariners have a solid starting staff — including a full season of Luis Castillo. They can do this. — Rogers
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
With one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are coming into sharper focus — except where they aren’t.
Things are pretty settled at the top of the field, as a relatively upset-free Week 13 left a half-dozen or so teams that are virtual locks for the CFP. But the ACC in particular has numerous moving parts in terms of who will play for the conference championship and likely make the playoff, and league title-game matchups are unsettled pretty much everywhere.
Meanwhile, teams sitting at five wins are sweating things out, with one more chance to become bowl eligible.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech
Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: The ACC doomsday scenario of its conference champion being left out of the playoff in favor of a team from the American — Tulane or North Texas — and the Sun Belt’s James Madison is still alive, but it feels like a we’ll-believe-it-when-we-see-it thing.
For now, I still don’t think the ACC champ would end up behind two Group of 5 teams, regardless of who it is. That would be a lot easier to feel good about if Miami had a straightforward path to the ACC title game, but that is not the case. Instead, the Hurricanes need to beat Pitt and would need Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and Cal to beat SMU. It’s possible. It’s not likely. The title game will be SMU and Virginia if they both win next week, which is why SMU gets the ACC nod for the time being; the Ponies have been the better team of late.
The rest of the playoff field is mostly straightforward. Six teams from the SEC and Big Ten are locks (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon). So is Texas Tech of the Big 12. Notre Dame (Stanford), Alabama (Auburn) and Oklahoma (LSU) are probably in with wins, but one of those slots would go to BYU if the Cougars beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Schlabach: The appetizer to the final weekend of the regular season didn’t produce much drama, as every CFP contender — outside of the ACC at least — found a way to get things done, mostly against inferior competition.
With two weeks left before the CFP selection committee announces the 12-team bracket on Dec. 7, I’m betting that five teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech — have punched their tickets, regardless of what happens in their regular-season finales and respective conference championship games (if they make it there).
Three more teams — Oregon, Ole Miss and Oklahoma — can probably do the same if they win this week. The Ducks erased any doubts about their overall strength with an impressive 42-27 win against USC. They’ll close the regular season at Washington on Saturday.
The Rebels had the weekend off, and they might have needed the time to refocus as speculation continues to heat up about whether coach Lane Kiffin will leave for LSU or Florida. Ole Miss plays at rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday.
The surging Sooners picked up their third straight victory against a ranked opponent, taking down Missouri 17-6 at home. Oklahoma hosts LSU in its regular-season finale Saturday.
Notre Dame and Alabama would probably be in good shape for at-large bids with wins this coming weekend; the Irish play at struggling Stanford on Saturday, while the Crimson Tide travel to Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. However, they might still be at the mercy of the selection committee, depending on what happens in other leagues.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: No changes for me here from last week, but it should be noted that Oregon is back on track offensively after a couple of uninspiring showings in late October and early November.
Quarterback Dante Moore looks like he is capable of leading a team to the national title, but first the Ducks have a big rivalry game with Washington to navigate this week.
Schlabach: Three of the top four seeds continued to play well this weekend, as Ohio State crushed Rutgers 42-9 at home. Next the Buckeyes travel to Michigan, where they’ll attempt to exorcise some demons in “The Game.” The Buckeyes have dropped four games in a row to the Wolverines, including a stunning 13-10 loss at home last season. The Buckeyes were ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings and somehow fell to the 6-5 Wolverines. Emotions will surely be running high once again at the Big House.
Texas A&M walloped FCS program Samford 48-0 in its final warmup game. The Aggies will play at rival Texas for the first time in 15 years on Saturday. Texas A&M won 24-17 at Texas on Nov. 25, 2010. The Longhorns won the past two games in the series, both in College Station.
Georgia took care of business in a 35-3 win against Charlotte. The Bulldogs will play rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Last season, Georgia had to overcome a 17-point deficit and needed eight overtimes to put the Yellow Jackets away in a 44-42 victory.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Ohio State is the deserved No. 1 seed. Its defense has been historically good, and the Buckeyes haven’t been challenged since opening the season with Texas. But they also haven’t exactly seen the best the Big Ten has to offer without Indiana, Oregon, USC or Iowa on the schedule this year.
It would be a lot easier to be more confident about Ohio State with a couple of more ranked teams on its résumé, but that’s how things work out with schedules now that conferences are so big. It makes this week’s game against Michigan more interesting and potentially sets up a fascinating Big Ten title game.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal and semifinal matchups remain unchanged from a week ago. The Cotton Bowl contest would feature two of the best transfer quarterbacks in the FBS: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.
I have Georgia slipping past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, although the Red Raiders’ menacing defensive front would be quite the challenge for the Bulldogs’ much-improved offensive line. Georgia seems to be peaking at the right time, unlike last season, and few coaches know how to get things done in the postseason like Kirby Smart.
A Rose Bowl game between Notre Dame and Ohio State would be a TV ratings bonanza, and Texas A&M-Oregon in New Orleans would be another entertaining game. I have both favorites moving on to the semifinals.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Western Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. UNLV
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Army
Schlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
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