How real are the Rays? Inside Tampa Bay’s historic unbeaten start
Yes, it’s only 10 games into the 2023 MLB season but what the Tampa Bay Rays have done so far is mind-boggling: A 10-0 record. A plus-58 run differential. And their 1-0 win against the Boston Red Sox on Monday was the first time they’ve won by fewer than four runs.
To make sense of it all, we asked ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle to answer one of these three questions: Why do the Rays believe this team is special? What do the numbers show us so far? How real are the Rays?
The undefeated Rays! Are they as surprised as we are?
During the Rays’ postgame victory celebrations, when they toast the heroes of the game, players get together and decide who will drink the tequila shot given to the best pitcher that day. Among those who have yet to receive the honor this season: closer Pete Fairbanks. The Rays have won so convincingly that before Fairbanks registered a save to lock down Tampa Bay’s 10th consecutive win Monday, his teammates had saddled him with a new nickname fitting for someone who throws so infrequently: Rarebanks.
Chances are the Rays will level off, Rarebanks will morph back to Fairbanks and the excitement surrounding the most dominant start in nearly a century and a half will give way to a dogfight in the American League East. For now, though, the Rays are a vibe, a team embracing all the things that make it good and running roughshod through an easy early schedule in historic ways.
Everything is working — and lest you believe that’s an exaggeration, chew on these numbers going into Monday night’s 1-0 victory over Boston, the Rays’ third consecutive shutout:
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Runs scored: 76 (1st in MLB)
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Runs allowed: 18 (1st)
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OPS: .967 (1st)
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ERA: 1.89 (1st)
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Barrel %, batters: 14.2% (1st)
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Hard hit %, pitchers: 32.1% (1st)
Category after category, the Rays find themselves at the top. (Which, as we’ll get to below, is in part a function of a schedule that has included series against the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals and Oakland Athletics.) And while Tampa Bay’s sprint to an undefeated start has surprised outsiders, it aligns with the Rays’ internal expectations entering the season. From the front office to the clubhouse, they believed they were a very good baseball team. They simply needed to show the world how good.
During an Opening Day players-only meeting, the Rays emphasized that even though they were coming off their fourth consecutive postseason appearance, this was a new year, a new opportunity to play like the team they believed they could be. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena could be stars. Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen could take leaps. The bullpen could be the island of misfit toys. They just needed to do it together.
Winning 10 games — the first nine by at least four runs, something that hadn’t been done during a nine-or-more-game winning streak since 1884, when the pitcher’s mound was 50 feet from home plate — reinforced that notion of camaraderie, fellowship, fun. This isn’t a team that started in the depths of the minor leagues together and worked its way up; only seven of the players on the Rays’ 26-man roster are homegrown. They’ve nonetheless figured out how to coalesce, with each player filling a necessary role, something the Rays preach and achieve better than anyone.
Franco and Arozarena are playing like stars — and the next eight hitters with the most plate appearances on the team (Luke Raley, Harold Ramirez, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Brandon Lowe, Manuel Margot, Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz) all are slugging .467 or better. Springs and Rasmussen have thrown a combined 26 scoreless innings, and Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin aren’t far behind, with six runs allowed over 23 innings. The bullpen ERA of 1.50 is best in the AL.
Long lauded for its relief depth, Tampa Bay entered the season looking for something new. Even with Tyler Glasnow out because of a strained oblique, the Rays wanted their starting pitchers to work deeper into games and avoid overtaxing their bullpen. It has mostly worked: Before using an opener against Boston, Tampa Bay’s 29 innings from relievers this year were the third fewest in baseball.
The Rays’ schedule grew more meddlesome starting Monday against Boston, and it really accelerates starting May 5: New York Yankees, at Baltimore Orioles, at Yankees, at New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers — 23 games in 24 days. By that point, they’ll presumably have come back to earth, but until then, they’re happy to keep hoisting those shots of tequila, knowing what they are doing, regardless of who they’ve done it against, is indeed rare. — Passan
So how much of this is the Rays — and how much is the competition they are facing?
It’s been 20 years since the 2003 Kansas City Royals started 9-0 — the last team before the Rays to do that. Those Royals finished 83-79, and if they’re remembered for anything, it’s for posting the franchise’s only winning season between 1995 and 2012.
Now after getting to 10-0, the Rays are aiming for the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers and 1982 Atlanta Braves, who both started with 13 straight wins, the longest winning streaks to begin a season. The Braves held on to win the NL West that season (that’s right, they were in the West), but the after slugging outfielder Rob Deer made the cover of Sports Illustrated, the Brewers soon squandered their hot start with a 12-game losing streak in May.
While winning 10 straight to start the season is unusual, winning nine in a row isn’t: There were six separate winning streaks of at least nine games last season, including the Seattle Mariners and Braves both winning 14 in a row. But what we haven’t seen in a long time is a nine-game stretch of dominance like this one by Tampa Bay. The Rays won all nine games by at least four runs, the first team to do that at any point in a season since the 1939 Yankees — a team many consider the greatest of all time.
The Rays have trailed in just two of their 10 games — they trailed the Nationals for five innings in their fifth game before scoring five runs in the top of the ninth on three home runs for a 10-6 victory and they trailed the A’s 1-0 in the top of the second inning in their seventh game before exploding for six runs in the bottom of that inning. The Rays’ run differential of plus-58 is the best through the first 10 games of a season since the 1884 St. Louis Maroons of the dubiously professional Union Association and the 1884 New York Gothams of the National League. Those comparisons to teams from 1884 are a little silly, so let’s compare that run differential to last season’s top winning streaks:
Mariners (14): +36
Braves (14): +60
Dodgers (12): +61
Astros (11): +43
Yankees (11): +48
Orioles (10): +22
The Rays’ run differential per game still beats any of those streaks. This is where we now mention who the Rays have played: the Tigers, Nationals, A’s and now one game against the Red Sox. There’s a strong likelihood that three of those clubs might be the three worst teams in the majors at the end of the season. So, yes, the Rays took advantage of a soft schedule. But that’s usually the case with winning streaks. The Braves beat the Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s, Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks in their 14-game streak, all teams that would finish with losing records, while the Mariners also played the Nationals and A’s (although they did win six in a row against the Blue Jays and San Diego Padres).
That’s not to diminish what the Rays have done — they’re succeeding in every aspect of the game. Perhaps the biggest key is they’re hitting a lot of home runs — 25 so far, in all 10 games this season. The Rays were third in the AL in home runs in 2021 when they finished second in runs scored, but they fell all the way to 11th in both categories last season. If they keep hitting home runs — Franco leads the way with four — they’re going to be tough to beat. — Schoenfield
Bottom line: Are the Rays for real?
After the Rays’ back-to-back 11-0 drubbings of the rebuilding Athletics over the weekend, their start made the leap from absurd to sublime. At that point, the Rays were on pace to outscore their opponents 1,350 to 324 this season. Those numbers are stunning, eye-popping, spine-tingling, or whatever hyperbolic adjective you want to conjure. They are also, if we’re being realistic, all but fictional.
No MLB team is that good. If you identified the best possible 40-man roster made up of all the best-right-now professional baseball players in the world and put them on the same team, that club would not outscore its opponents by 1,026 runs over the course of a season. It would not do anything close to that. So from that standpoint, as amazing as the Rays have been, this start is more unreal than real.
Still, there are lots of reasons to think that this unprecedented start offers some real evidence of a special team, quality of opposition aside. It’s way, way too early to start talking about things like 116 wins or a 1939 Yankees-level run differential, which was a modern era record plus-411. However, it’s not too early to suggest that the Rays might have already surpassed the Yankees as the favorites in the AL East. Some of the betting outlets have flipped, others have the Rays closing in fast. Either way, the bottom line is that the Rays’ early surge is creating a lot of believers.
This is not because the Yankees have floundered, either. New York has been very good in the early going and has plenty of reasons to stake a claim to the title as the best team in the majors. My own power rankings have the Rays and Yankees as the top two clubs in baseball, in that order. The Rays won the AL East in 58% of my most recent run of simulations, up from 19% when the season began. That surge has happened even though the Yankees’ strong power rating hasn’t changed much. The Bombers have played to expectations, but the Rays have exceeded their forecast to a degree that has changed their outlook, even though the season is less than two weeks old and even though they opened the season against baseball’s lesser lights.
All this being said, I do think the scale of the Rays’ early run differential overwhelms systems like mine and, I assume, others. Sure, we adjust for schedule but those adjustments are conservative, especially this early in the season. The Rays will fall back, relatively speaking. The only question is how far. We’ll know a lot more about six weeks from now, as the Rays have already completed one of the softest stretches of schedule any team will have this season. In the weeks ahead, matchups with the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Red Sox and Brewers all loom.
For now, what we can do is look at some of the early metrics that have led to this run, the ones that are somewhat opponent agnostic and meaningful in short samples.
On offense, the Rays lead the majors in barrel rate and near the top in average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. This has led to an off-the-charts isolated power percentage (.299) that laps the field. For context: The big-league record for isolated power at the team level in a season in a non-shortened season is .224, by the 2019 Minnesota Twins. So that’s not sustainable and there is probably a strong element in that figure that reflects the pitching the Rays have faced.
Still, stylistically this is who the Rays are. Only the Athletics and Pirates have a higher average launch angle. Elevating the ball is what this collection of Rays seeks to do. They won’t keep hitting homers at this rate, but they’ll keep trying.
As their homer rates drop, however, the Rays’ offense could still maintain much of its early scoring rate by a corresponding climb in offensive BABIP. So far, Tampa Bay’s BABIP is just .283, 16 points below the big league average, and that’s despite all of those hard-hit balls. The sky-high flyball rate has something to do with that (fly balls that don’t leave the yard tend to be caught) but the Rays do have a line-drive rate around league average. Yet their average on line drives is about 40 points below league average. This, too, will level out and in this category, it’ll be to the Rays’ favor.
On the pitching side, one quick observation we can make is the Rays have been baseball’s stingiest run prevention team even though Glasnow has been on the IL with an oblique injury. Also: The Rays’ team defensive metrics have been more middling than elite, but Tampa Bay projected to land somewhere in the six-to-eight range in team defense going into the season.
As those things find their levels, it should be a mild boost for the Rays on the run-prevention side. Their early sub-2.00 ERA isn’t sustainable, of course. In fact, the Rays have been merely good (as opposed to off the charts) in things like FIP and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Per Statcast, their WOBA allowed (.240) is a whopping 28 points better than their expected WOBA (.268). Those numbers will move closer together as the season goes along.
Here’s the thing: That expected WOBA figure is the second-best in the majors. That’s really the theme of the Rays across the board. Their key indicators aren’t going to remain this far ahead of the majors over the full season. But that doesn’t mean that they won’t remain strong.
For now, all we can say is that the Rays were a strong on-paper team before the season started and what they’ve done against lesser opposition to date is remarkable. But all of those wins and runs and runs prevented have given Tampa Bay a sprinting start to the campaign. Surely the Rays will be challenged as the months pass, but the onus is now on the competition to chase them down.
Maybe the Rays haven’t yet broken baseball. Still, this is a team we expected to be good, really good, and this amazing start suggests that despite our high hopes for the 2023 Rays, we may have actually underrated them. — Doolittle
LONDON — A severe respiratory infection is likely to have contributed to the death of Grand National runner Celebre d’Allen, according to the findings of the postmortem released Thursday.
The postmortem also acknowledged that the 13-year-old horse’s immune system was “severely compromised” after running the grueling jumps race Saturday.
Celebre d’Allen, a 125-1 shot for the National, was pulled up by jockey Micheal Nolan after the last of the 30 fences. The horse then collapsed on the racecourse.
After receiving treatment on the course, he walked into the horse ambulance and was taken to the racecourse stables for further assessment. Although his owners were positive regarding his recovery on Sunday, his condition deteriorated and he died on Monday.
Celebre d’Allen was sent for a postmortem, which found that the bacterial infection — pleuropneumonia — developed after the race and led to the horse’s deterioration. The subsequent onset of sepsis or endotoxaemia — described as the release of harmful substances into the bloodstream from bacteria — is “likely to have been a key factor in the cause of death,” said the British Horseracing Authority, which said it was granted permission by Celebre d’Allen’s trainer and owner to publish the key findings.
The “exercise-associated episode” experienced by the horse after the race had concluded by the time of his death, according to the post-mortem, the BHA said.
“Further bloods taken on the Monday indicated a severely compromised immune system,” the BHA added. “These indications had not been present in the bloods taken on the day of the race. This indicates that this issue emerged subsequent to the race and the exercise-associated episode.”
Raceday stewards suspended Nolan for 10 days after concluding he “had continued in the race when the horse appeared to have no more to give and was clearly losing ground after the second-last fence.”
Iain Green, director of animal-welfare activist Animal Aid, described the length of the suspension as “pitiful.”
The Grand National has long been regarded as one of the most dangerous horse races in the world because of the size of the fences. A number of new measures — including reducing the field from 40 to 34 runners and bringing forward the race’s start time — were introduced last year in an attempt to make it safer.
NEW YORK — After Alex Ovechkin scored his NHL record-breaking 895th goal — in vintage Ovechkin fashion, from his “office,” on an old-school wrist shot — he skated to center ice and belly flopped.
The celebration, the Washington Capitals captain said, was unplanned.
“Ice was bad today,” he explained. “I fell.”
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After the iconic moment, Ovechkin’s teammates swarmed him. The late-season game between the Capitals and New York Islanders paused for 25 minutes for an on-ice ceremony. Wayne Gretzky, the legend whom Ovechkin passed, made his way down; the Hall of Famer graciously followed the 39-year-old from one arena to the next as he closed in on his record, fulfilling a promise to be the first person to shake Ovechkin’s hand afterward — just as Gordie Howe, the previous record holder, had done for Gretzky in 1994.
As the league set up carpet on the ice, Ovechkin was focused on hugging each of his teammates. Ovechkin then fixated on finding his family, including his mother, wife and their two young sons. “Without them, it’s basically, I don’t know if I can reach this milestone,” he said.
All the while, a video tribute played on the videoboard at UBS Arena on Long Island.
Those congratulating Ovechkin included a who’s who of sports GOATs: Roger Federer, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Sidney Crosby, Derek Jeter, Simone Biles, Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky.
“To be honest with you, I didn’t see it,” Ovechkin said. “But the boys told me that lots of great people, great athletes support me and congratulate me. It’s huge.”
As teammate Tom Wilson said earlier in the week, the attention on Ovechkin was unparalleled for their sport. “To try to think about what he’s going through, the pressure, the entire game of hockey is on his shoulders right now. It’s bigger than hockey,” Wilson said. “And for him to handle that, to perform, to lead the top team in the league and still be such a fun teammate, it’s really remarkable.”
It’s what makes Ovechkin, the NHL’s new all-time leader in goals, a true original — and perhaps the last man who will ever hold the title.
“They say records were meant to be broken,” Gretzky told the crowd. “But I’m not sure who’s going to get more goals than that.”
WHEN GRETZKY ECLIPSED Howe’s mark 31 years ago, many around the sport believed that was it. Nobody would surpass The Great One, whose stat line was so outlandish over a 1,487-game career, that you could take away his final goal total (894) and he’d still be the league’s all-time leader in points.
Gretzky, over the years, was known to say he was sure “somebody, somewhere will come along and break it.” But few people believed it, especially as the game evolved. The average goals per NHL game during Gretzky’s career was 6.93. Since Ovechkin’s rookie season, the average is 5.72. But something was always different about Ovechkin, who was a surefire talent when the Capitals selected him No. 1 in 2004. Ovechkin scored two goals in his first NHL game and finished with 52 in his rookie season.
The “Alex Ovechkin Effect” in Washington, D.C., is undeniable. Since Ovechkin’s rookie season (2005-06), hockey players in the Potomac Valley region have increased by 71%, according to USA Hockey statistics. To help meet the growing demand for access, the Caps have helped build or refurbish 14 outdoor inline rinks. Ovechkin used his platform for charity; in March he pledged a dollar amount equal to his career goal total to pediatric cancer for every goal he scored for the rest of his career.
His reach expands well past Caps fandom. Utah Hockey Club center Logan Cooley, who was born in Pittsburgh a year before Crosby’s and Ovechkin’s debut seasons, cites Ovechkin as his favorite player growing up. Canadiens winger Patrik Laine grew up in Finland idolizing the Russian winger. Even Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber admits he owned Ovechkin jerseys growing up.
“Ever since I was a young kid playing hockey,” Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews said, “he was always one of my favorite players to watch.”
Perhaps the most remarkable part of Ovechkin closing in on the record was how players around the league universally cheered for him. After nearly every game this season, players have asked Ovechkin for a stick swap. Ovechkin obliges, in large part because he is a collector himself; it’s believed he hopes to open a sports museum in Russia post-retirement. Ovechkin recently exchanged sticks with Sharks rookie Macklin Celebrini, who signed his stick for Ovechkin with the message: “Thanks for being a role model.”
Crosby has long been pitted as Ovechkin’s biggest rival; neither has won a Stanley Cup without eliminating the other. But the Penguins’ captain gets emotional when talking about Ovechkin.
“That was a record probably everybody thought wouldn’t be touched,” Crosby said. “It’s awesome for the game of hockey, and I’m loving the fact that I’m playing at this time and get to see it firsthand.”
OVECHKIN WAS OFF to a torrid start this season, in which the Capitals surprisingly emerged as the top team in the league after successfully undergoing a retool on the fly. He scored 15 goals through his first 18 games before things came to a screeching halt just before Thanksgiving. The Capitals’ captain had already scored twice against Utah in a Nov. 18 road game when Utah’s Jack McBain cut through Washington’s zone and got tangled with Ovechkin, who immediately fell to the ice.
The result: a broken left fibula. It was the first time in Ovechkin’s 20-year career that he broke a bone.
“When that happened,” goaltender Charlie Lindgren said, “everyone was kind of thinking to themselves whether or not it was going to be possible.”
But Ovechkin is built differently. As he famously declared after avoiding injury from an errant puck in 2006: “I’m OK, Russian machine never breaks.”
Within two days of the injury, Ovechkin rid himself of the walking boot. (The fibula doesn’t take on a substantial weight-bearing load.) Soon after, he was skating. Ovechkin remained around the team, getting electric stimulation to help with blood flow, and just had to wait it out until the bone healed enough to sustain contact. Ovechkin returned just after Christmas, scoring in each of his first two games back, naturally. Ovechkin’s unorthodox habits — in an age when many elite athletes view their body as a temple — have become legendary. Before arriving at the team plane for a road trip, Ovechkin always stops at the same Subway where he orders a spicy Italian footlong and Flaming Hot Cheetos. When the Capitals arrive at road arenas, there’s a request that the No. 8 water bottles on the bench be filled with Coke or Pepsi, whichever the arena has a deal with. His home pregame meal is a heavy one: a chicken parm and pasta Alfredo combination from a local joint, Mamma Lucia’s. Ovechkin won’t be the first or last player in the gym, and he’s judicious about how much time he spends on the ice. “At this point in his career, he knows exactly what he needs to do to get himself ready,” said his locker mate, Nic Dowd, who explained the two keep opposite hours. “A lot of it is mental. And it’s hard to argue against the results.” ANYONE WHO FOLLOWS the NHL has been keenly aware of Ovechkin’s chase for Gretzky’s record. What many fans don’t know: the details that allow Ovechkin to thrive. He’s a gear nerd. It’s not a secret that Ovechkin is an equipment free agent right now. Most players have deals with CCM, Bauer, Sherwood or True hockey. Last season, Ovechkin toyed with a few different sticks until he found a custom model around All-Star Weekend. Since switching to the new stick — which is wrapped in black, with no logos — Ovechkin has scored 64 goals in 96 games. Capitals coach Spencer Carbery has made an intentional effort to put Ovechkin in better positions to thrive. Ovechkin’s ice time was reduced to under 18 minutes per game this season for the first time in his career. He cut his 4-on-4 play, has sometimes swapped him from left to right wing, and gives him more shifts in the offensive zone. “It’s about quality shifts, not quantity,” Carbery said. “And with O, if you present him the information, if you explain here’s why we’re doing this and here’s how it will help you and the team, he always buys in. That’s never an issue.” The one nonnegotiable: Ovechkin isn’t missing any ice time during the two minutes the Caps are on the power play. Ovechkin has been on the ice for 97.3% of the Caps’ power-play time this season. Only four other players are in the 80% range or higher: Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl and Quinn Hughes. Ovechkin is not resented in the locker room because he is emphatic about being a good teammate. “It really feels like he gets more excited, or just as excited for our goals than his goals,” said Dylan Strome, who assisted on No. 895. “He’s always keeping the mood light, with all of his pregame routines, handshakes with guys in the tunnel, screaming in the locker room. He’s very consistent like that.” When rookie Aliaksei Protas was first called up, he needed to return to the farm club in Hershey, Pennsylvania, to retrieve some personal items on an off day. And he needed to borrow one of his teammates’ cars. “The big man come up to me, and first he is mad because I asked [Evgeny Kuznetsov], and he said, ‘Why didn’t [you] come to me straight?'” Protas recalled. Ovechkin loaned Protas his car. “He told me to keep it for a few months,” Protas said. Washington signed its top prospect, Ryan Leonard, on March 31, the day before the Caps played in Boston. Ovechkin texted Leonard, the Boston College star who was already in town, and invited him to a sushi dinner that night with a few teammates. Afterward, Leonard told Ovechkin a few of his buddies would love to meet him, and they knew just the spot. So the night before Ovechkin scored No. 891, he was drinking a beer at Circle Tavern, a bar near the BC campus. “Everywhere we go lately, it’s been rock-star stuff the second he walks into a room, people grab their phones,” Wilson said. “And he doesn’t get fazed by it at all. He’ll go out walking in a Canadian city, doesn’t care who recognizes him. Will stop for fans. Most guys aren’t like that. But that’s just Ovi.” ON THE DAY Ovechkin tied Gretzky’s record, there was an aura surrounding him. He was smiling and laughing as he came off the ice. He was most excited to see his former Stanley Cup-winning teammates, such as Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and Braden Holtby, who were being honored later that night as part of the Capitals’ 50th anniversary celebration. Backstrom and Ovechkin have always been instinctively linked, with the Swedish center assisting on more of his goals (279) than any other player. Backstrom (hip) and Oshie (back) have not had the same injury luck as Ovechkin. Both are still under contract but sidelined on long-term injured reserve, probably for the remainder of their careers. Ovechkin acknowledged both players in his on-ice speech. “There’s not many instances where someone has openly, in one instance or another, kind of thanked me in front of the world,” Oshie said. “So in that moment, I kind of assumed and knew that ‘Backy’ was going to get a shoutout. They go hand in hand and their bond is like no other of two teammates that I’ve seen. But for him to call my name in that moment was incredibly special and, honestly, very emotional for me inside to have him mention and give me a little shoutout during the biggest accomplishment that the world of hockey has seen in a very long time.” Now, everyone wonders whether there could be another moment like this. As for Ovechkin’s personal goals, he has been very coy. Though he once famously told ESPN’s Linda Cohn he’d retire as soon as he broke Gretzky’s record, that’s not a foregone conclusion. Ovechkin is under contract for one more season for $9.5 million. He’d love to win another Stanley Cup, and this Washington team has proved capable. The next question is: Will anyone come for Ovi’s record? Should Ovechkin play next season then retire, ESPN Research projects he will finish with 937 career goals. At his current goals pace (0.64 per game), it would take Matthews 848 games to surpass it; that puts him 11 seasons away. For Draisaitl (0.51), the projection is 1,066 games (13 seasons). David Pastrnak (0.52) and Connor McDavid (0.51) are each projected to get there in 14 seasons. Perhaps, they — or someone else — will get there one day. But for the foreseeable future, that record belongs to Ovechkin. “This is something crazy. I’m probably going to need a couple more days. Maybe a couple weeks to realize what it means to be No. 1,” Ovechkin said Sunday. “All I can say, I’m very proud. I’m very proud for myself. I’m really proud for my family, for all my teammates, that helped me to reach that milestone, and for all my coaches. It’s huge. It’s an unbelievable moment.”
Who will be the best receiver in college football in 2025? It seems that’s not a very hard question.
We asked a group of our reporters that question and the answer was unanimous: Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith. In fact of the five polls we conducted concerning the top players and coaches for the coming season, this is the only one that came back with an undisputed winner.
Our panel was asked to vote for their top 10 pass catchers for the 2025 season (tight ends included), and we distributed points based on their selections (10 points for a first-place vote, 9 points for second place and so on).
Besides Smith, only one other player appeared on all 10 ballots: Alabama’s Ryan Williams, another freshman who made an instant impact. But after that, the voting was wide open. The list includes players who bounced back from injuries, transfers from last season who hit it big with their new teams and some looking for similar breakthroughs after visiting the portal this offseason.
Here’s a look at our picks for the top 10 receivers in college football:
Points: 100 (10 of 10 first-place votes)
2024 stats: 76 receptions, 1,315 yards, 17.3-yard average, 16 TDs (1 rushing)
Rarely do incoming freshmen generate as much hype as Smith did, and then actually exceed it. He didn’t win the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top wide receiver, but good luck finding a coach who would prefer anyone over the Buckeyes star. He had three or more receptions in all but one game and reached the end zone in 12 of Ohio State’s 16 contests.
After earning Big Ten freshman and receiver of the year honors, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound Smith will enter his second season as a bona fide Heisman Trophy contender, and could be by far the best player at his position for two more years before he’s eligible for the NFL draft. It’s a rare spot for such a young player to occupy, but Smith is a rare talent. — Adam Rittenberg
Points: 82
2024 stats: 48 receptions, 865 yards, 18-yard average, 10 TDs (2 rushing)
Williams didn’t finish his freshman season the way he started it, but still proved to be one of the most explosive players in the nation. He had five touchdown catches in his first four games, including the game winner against Georgia, and finished the season with 10 touchdowns (8 receiving, 2 rushing).
Williams averaged 18 yards per catch and tied for fourth nationally with five receptions of 50-plus yards. Look for even more big plays in 2025, especially with Ryan Grubb coming in as Alabama’s new offensive coordinator. — Chris Low
Points: 68
2024 stats: 75 receptions, 1,101 yards, 14.7-yard average, 10 TDs
The former Colorado transfer returned from the knee injury that sidelined him for nearly all of the 2023 season and instantly became a key figure for the Sun Devils, emerging as the lead downfield target in an offense powered by 1,711-yard rusher Cam Skattebo. Tyson’s production earned him Big 12 offensive newcomer of the year honors. An upper-body injury kept him sidelined for the Sun Devils’ postseason run.
Tyson’s dependability was huge for ASU. He eclipsed 100 yards receiving five times, logged 12 third-down receptions (17th nationally) and had more red zone targets (16) than all but 22 wide receivers across the country. With Arizona State expected to shift its offensive balance without Skattebo in the backfield, Tyson should see even more of the ball as the go-to weapon for Heisman Trophy contender Sam Leavitt in 2025. — Eli Lederman
Points: 46
2024 stats: 53 receptions, 957 yards, 18.1-yard average, 8 TDs
Sarratt is a success story for the portal era. Overlooked out of high school, the 6-foot-2, 209-pounder became an immediate star for Saint Francis (Pa.) in FCS, catching 42 passes for 700 yards and 13 touchdowns. He parlayed that into success at James Madison in 2023 (82 catches, 1,191 yards, 8 TDs), then followed Curt Cignetti to Indiana, where he became the leading receiver on a playoff team.
He enjoyed four 100-yard performances last season, and among players with at least 80 targets he ranked eighth in yards per reception (18.1) and 10th in success rate (59.1%). He’s efficient and explosive, and if Indiana again plays at a high level, he’ll be one of the primary reasons. — Bill Connelly
Points: 40
2024 stats (with Georgia Tech): 56 receptions, 754 yards, 13.5-yard average, 3 TDs; 21 carries, 131 yards, 1 TD
Singleton, the No. 4 overall player in ESPN’s transfer rankings in December, was extremely coveted upon entering the portal. The former freshman All-American finished second in ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 and has put up 1,849 all-purpose yards and 10 total scores over his first two college seasons.
Singleton also ran track at Georgia Tech, with a personal best of 10.32 seconds in the 100-meter dash. The speedster is hoping to play up to his early-round NFL draft pick potential in an Auburn offense that seriously reloaded with portal pickups this offseason. — Max Olson
Points: 30
2024 stats: 75 receptions, 904 yards, 12.1-yard average, 12 TDs (1 rushing)
There were growing concerns about what had happened to Clemson’s wide receiver room entering the 2024 season, but Williams helped put those to rest. A freshman All-America selection in 2022, he had injuries wipe out most of his 2023 season, but he returned last fall to record career highs in receptions (75), receiving yards (904), receiving touchdowns (11) and offensive snaps (727).
Williams was the first Clemson player to reach 75 or more receptions since Amari Rodgers in 2020, and the first with 10 or more touchdown receptions since Tee Higgins in 2019 (13). He also was a factor on punt returns, averaging 9.7 yards per runback. — Rittenberg
Points: 29
2024 stats: 48 receptions, 613 yards, 12.8-yard average, 5 TDs
Few returning wideouts bring more talent to the table than Stewart. The former five-star recruit went through ups and downs in two seasons at Texas A&M but really impressed Oregon’s coaching staff last season and is coming back for his senior year to prove he can become an elite playmaker.
Stewart has turned 139 career catches into 1,776 yards and 11 touchdowns with six 100-yard performances, including a career-best 149 yards in the Ducks’ regular-season win over Ohio State. Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden moving on to the NFL creates plenty of opportunity for Stewart to see a ton of targets this fall. — Olson
Points: 21
2024 stats: 41 receptions, 708 yards, 17.3-yard average, 5 TDs
A midseason ankle injury tamped down his full-season numbers, but Wesco lived up to his blue-chip status both early and late in his freshman season. In September, he caught passes of 51 and 76 yards against Appalachian State and 70 and 34 against Stanford; after his return from injury, he starred in Clemson’s ACC championship game victory, catching eight passes for 143 yards and two scores.
On a team hungry for big plays, nine of his 41 receptions gained at least 34 yards, and as he bulks up a bit (he was listed at 6-foot-2, 180 pounds last season) and improves his short-route game, he’ll only become more dangerous on the long balls. Clemson enters 2025 with top-10 billing, and both Wesco’s production and his potential for even greater heights are a major reason for that. — Connelly
Points: 19
2024 stats: 52 receptions, 733 yards, 14.1-yard average, 4 TDs
One of the nation’s top receiver prospects when he signed out of high school, Tate was the No. 3 option last season for the Buckeyes and still caught 52 passes for 733 yards and four touchdowns. The 6-2, 191-pound junior will pair with Jeremiah Smith to give Ohio State one of the top pass-catching combos in the country.
Tate averaged 14.1 yards per catch last season and had five catches of 30 yards or longer. There was some chatter after the season that Tate might transfer, but he said he never thought about leaving Ohio State. He’s a tough, physical matchup for opposing cornerbacks and has the speed to make big plays down the field. — Low
Points: 19
2024 stats (with NC State): 53 receptions, 460 yards, 8.7-yard average, 6 TDs; 19 carries, 36 yards, 2 TDs
The 5-foot-11 pass catcher broke NC State’s freshman reception record (71 catches) and became a freshman All-American with 1,159 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. The Wolfpack regressed last fall, and so did Concepcion’s production, but he should be a frequent target within an Aggies passing attack that finished 88th nationally and 12th in the SEC in completions of 20-plus yards a year ago.
Concepcion’s 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons are tied for 14th most nationally over that span. Stepping into a remade Texas A&M wide receiver unit alongside transfers Mario Craver and Jonah Wilson, Concepcion could be the key in turning around an offense that finished 87th in passing yards per game in 2024. — Lederman
Also receiving votes: Nic Anderson, LSU, 18 points; Cam Coleman, Auburn, 17; Eric Rivers, Georgia Tech, 14; Zachariah Branch, Georgia, 7; Makai Lemon, USC, 6; Barion Brown, LSU 5; Eugene Wilson III, Florida 5; Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon (TE), 5; Devonte Ross, Penn State, 4; Aaron Anderson, LSU, 3; Malachi Fields, Notre Dame, 3; Deion Burks, Oklahoma, 2; Oscar Delp, Georgia (TE), 2; Ryan Wingo, Texas, 2; Dakorien Moore, Oregon, 1; Max Klare, Ohio State (TE), 1; Nick Marsh, Michigan State, 1
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