How real are the Rays? Inside Tampa Bay’s historic unbeaten start
Yes, it’s only 10 games into the 2023 MLB season but what the Tampa Bay Rays have done so far is mind-boggling: A 10-0 record. A plus-58 run differential. And their 1-0 win against the Boston Red Sox on Monday was the first time they’ve won by fewer than four runs.
To make sense of it all, we asked ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle to answer one of these three questions: Why do the Rays believe this team is special? What do the numbers show us so far? How real are the Rays?
The undefeated Rays! Are they as surprised as we are?
During the Rays’ postgame victory celebrations, when they toast the heroes of the game, players get together and decide who will drink the tequila shot given to the best pitcher that day. Among those who have yet to receive the honor this season: closer Pete Fairbanks. The Rays have won so convincingly that before Fairbanks registered a save to lock down Tampa Bay’s 10th consecutive win Monday, his teammates had saddled him with a new nickname fitting for someone who throws so infrequently: Rarebanks.
Chances are the Rays will level off, Rarebanks will morph back to Fairbanks and the excitement surrounding the most dominant start in nearly a century and a half will give way to a dogfight in the American League East. For now, though, the Rays are a vibe, a team embracing all the things that make it good and running roughshod through an easy early schedule in historic ways.
Everything is working — and lest you believe that’s an exaggeration, chew on these numbers going into Monday night’s 1-0 victory over Boston, the Rays’ third consecutive shutout:
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Runs scored: 76 (1st in MLB)
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Runs allowed: 18 (1st)
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OPS: .967 (1st)
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ERA: 1.89 (1st)
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Barrel %, batters: 14.2% (1st)
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Hard hit %, pitchers: 32.1% (1st)
Category after category, the Rays find themselves at the top. (Which, as we’ll get to below, is in part a function of a schedule that has included series against the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals and Oakland Athletics.) And while Tampa Bay’s sprint to an undefeated start has surprised outsiders, it aligns with the Rays’ internal expectations entering the season. From the front office to the clubhouse, they believed they were a very good baseball team. They simply needed to show the world how good.
During an Opening Day players-only meeting, the Rays emphasized that even though they were coming off their fourth consecutive postseason appearance, this was a new year, a new opportunity to play like the team they believed they could be. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena could be stars. Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen could take leaps. The bullpen could be the island of misfit toys. They just needed to do it together.
Winning 10 games — the first nine by at least four runs, something that hadn’t been done during a nine-or-more-game winning streak since 1884, when the pitcher’s mound was 50 feet from home plate — reinforced that notion of camaraderie, fellowship, fun. This isn’t a team that started in the depths of the minor leagues together and worked its way up; only seven of the players on the Rays’ 26-man roster are homegrown. They’ve nonetheless figured out how to coalesce, with each player filling a necessary role, something the Rays preach and achieve better than anyone.
Franco and Arozarena are playing like stars — and the next eight hitters with the most plate appearances on the team (Luke Raley, Harold Ramirez, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Brandon Lowe, Manuel Margot, Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz) all are slugging .467 or better. Springs and Rasmussen have thrown a combined 26 scoreless innings, and Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin aren’t far behind, with six runs allowed over 23 innings. The bullpen ERA of 1.50 is best in the AL.
Long lauded for its relief depth, Tampa Bay entered the season looking for something new. Even with Tyler Glasnow out because of a strained oblique, the Rays wanted their starting pitchers to work deeper into games and avoid overtaxing their bullpen. It has mostly worked: Before using an opener against Boston, Tampa Bay’s 29 innings from relievers this year were the third fewest in baseball.
The Rays’ schedule grew more meddlesome starting Monday against Boston, and it really accelerates starting May 5: New York Yankees, at Baltimore Orioles, at Yankees, at New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers — 23 games in 24 days. By that point, they’ll presumably have come back to earth, but until then, they’re happy to keep hoisting those shots of tequila, knowing what they are doing, regardless of who they’ve done it against, is indeed rare. — Passan
So how much of this is the Rays — and how much is the competition they are facing?
It’s been 20 years since the 2003 Kansas City Royals started 9-0 — the last team before the Rays to do that. Those Royals finished 83-79, and if they’re remembered for anything, it’s for posting the franchise’s only winning season between 1995 and 2012.
Now after getting to 10-0, the Rays are aiming for the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers and 1982 Atlanta Braves, who both started with 13 straight wins, the longest winning streaks to begin a season. The Braves held on to win the NL West that season (that’s right, they were in the West), but the after slugging outfielder Rob Deer made the cover of Sports Illustrated, the Brewers soon squandered their hot start with a 12-game losing streak in May.
While winning 10 straight to start the season is unusual, winning nine in a row isn’t: There were six separate winning streaks of at least nine games last season, including the Seattle Mariners and Braves both winning 14 in a row. But what we haven’t seen in a long time is a nine-game stretch of dominance like this one by Tampa Bay. The Rays won all nine games by at least four runs, the first team to do that at any point in a season since the 1939 Yankees — a team many consider the greatest of all time.
The Rays have trailed in just two of their 10 games — they trailed the Nationals for five innings in their fifth game before scoring five runs in the top of the ninth on three home runs for a 10-6 victory and they trailed the A’s 1-0 in the top of the second inning in their seventh game before exploding for six runs in the bottom of that inning. The Rays’ run differential of plus-58 is the best through the first 10 games of a season since the 1884 St. Louis Maroons of the dubiously professional Union Association and the 1884 New York Gothams of the National League. Those comparisons to teams from 1884 are a little silly, so let’s compare that run differential to last season’s top winning streaks:
Mariners (14): +36
Braves (14): +60
Dodgers (12): +61
Astros (11): +43
Yankees (11): +48
Orioles (10): +22
The Rays’ run differential per game still beats any of those streaks. This is where we now mention who the Rays have played: the Tigers, Nationals, A’s and now one game against the Red Sox. There’s a strong likelihood that three of those clubs might be the three worst teams in the majors at the end of the season. So, yes, the Rays took advantage of a soft schedule. But that’s usually the case with winning streaks. The Braves beat the Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s, Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks in their 14-game streak, all teams that would finish with losing records, while the Mariners also played the Nationals and A’s (although they did win six in a row against the Blue Jays and San Diego Padres).
That’s not to diminish what the Rays have done — they’re succeeding in every aspect of the game. Perhaps the biggest key is they’re hitting a lot of home runs — 25 so far, in all 10 games this season. The Rays were third in the AL in home runs in 2021 when they finished second in runs scored, but they fell all the way to 11th in both categories last season. If they keep hitting home runs — Franco leads the way with four — they’re going to be tough to beat. — Schoenfield
Bottom line: Are the Rays for real?
After the Rays’ back-to-back 11-0 drubbings of the rebuilding Athletics over the weekend, their start made the leap from absurd to sublime. At that point, the Rays were on pace to outscore their opponents 1,350 to 324 this season. Those numbers are stunning, eye-popping, spine-tingling, or whatever hyperbolic adjective you want to conjure. They are also, if we’re being realistic, all but fictional.
No MLB team is that good. If you identified the best possible 40-man roster made up of all the best-right-now professional baseball players in the world and put them on the same team, that club would not outscore its opponents by 1,026 runs over the course of a season. It would not do anything close to that. So from that standpoint, as amazing as the Rays have been, this start is more unreal than real.
Still, there are lots of reasons to think that this unprecedented start offers some real evidence of a special team, quality of opposition aside. It’s way, way too early to start talking about things like 116 wins or a 1939 Yankees-level run differential, which was a modern era record plus-411. However, it’s not too early to suggest that the Rays might have already surpassed the Yankees as the favorites in the AL East. Some of the betting outlets have flipped, others have the Rays closing in fast. Either way, the bottom line is that the Rays’ early surge is creating a lot of believers.
This is not because the Yankees have floundered, either. New York has been very good in the early going and has plenty of reasons to stake a claim to the title as the best team in the majors. My own power rankings have the Rays and Yankees as the top two clubs in baseball, in that order. The Rays won the AL East in 58% of my most recent run of simulations, up from 19% when the season began. That surge has happened even though the Yankees’ strong power rating hasn’t changed much. The Bombers have played to expectations, but the Rays have exceeded their forecast to a degree that has changed their outlook, even though the season is less than two weeks old and even though they opened the season against baseball’s lesser lights.
All this being said, I do think the scale of the Rays’ early run differential overwhelms systems like mine and, I assume, others. Sure, we adjust for schedule but those adjustments are conservative, especially this early in the season. The Rays will fall back, relatively speaking. The only question is how far. We’ll know a lot more about six weeks from now, as the Rays have already completed one of the softest stretches of schedule any team will have this season. In the weeks ahead, matchups with the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Red Sox and Brewers all loom.
For now, what we can do is look at some of the early metrics that have led to this run, the ones that are somewhat opponent agnostic and meaningful in short samples.
On offense, the Rays lead the majors in barrel rate and near the top in average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. This has led to an off-the-charts isolated power percentage (.299) that laps the field. For context: The big-league record for isolated power at the team level in a season in a non-shortened season is .224, by the 2019 Minnesota Twins. So that’s not sustainable and there is probably a strong element in that figure that reflects the pitching the Rays have faced.
Still, stylistically this is who the Rays are. Only the Athletics and Pirates have a higher average launch angle. Elevating the ball is what this collection of Rays seeks to do. They won’t keep hitting homers at this rate, but they’ll keep trying.
As their homer rates drop, however, the Rays’ offense could still maintain much of its early scoring rate by a corresponding climb in offensive BABIP. So far, Tampa Bay’s BABIP is just .283, 16 points below the big league average, and that’s despite all of those hard-hit balls. The sky-high flyball rate has something to do with that (fly balls that don’t leave the yard tend to be caught) but the Rays do have a line-drive rate around league average. Yet their average on line drives is about 40 points below league average. This, too, will level out and in this category, it’ll be to the Rays’ favor.
On the pitching side, one quick observation we can make is the Rays have been baseball’s stingiest run prevention team even though Glasnow has been on the IL with an oblique injury. Also: The Rays’ team defensive metrics have been more middling than elite, but Tampa Bay projected to land somewhere in the six-to-eight range in team defense going into the season.
As those things find their levels, it should be a mild boost for the Rays on the run-prevention side. Their early sub-2.00 ERA isn’t sustainable, of course. In fact, the Rays have been merely good (as opposed to off the charts) in things like FIP and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Per Statcast, their WOBA allowed (.240) is a whopping 28 points better than their expected WOBA (.268). Those numbers will move closer together as the season goes along.
Here’s the thing: That expected WOBA figure is the second-best in the majors. That’s really the theme of the Rays across the board. Their key indicators aren’t going to remain this far ahead of the majors over the full season. But that doesn’t mean that they won’t remain strong.
For now, all we can say is that the Rays were a strong on-paper team before the season started and what they’ve done against lesser opposition to date is remarkable. But all of those wins and runs and runs prevented have given Tampa Bay a sprinting start to the campaign. Surely the Rays will be challenged as the months pass, but the onus is now on the competition to chase them down.
Maybe the Rays haven’t yet broken baseball. Still, this is a team we expected to be good, really good, and this amazing start suggests that despite our high hopes for the 2023 Rays, we may have actually underrated them. — Doolittle
Was something in the air in Week 12? We are now down to three undefeated FBS teams following No. 6 BYU’s loss to Kansas on Saturday night, and in total, five AP Top 25 teams lost to unranked opponents.
With BYU suffering its first loss of the season and now tied with Colorado in the Big 12 standings, what do the Cougars need to do in the last few weeks to reach the conference title game?
Georgia gained a much-needed win over Tennessee at home Saturday. The Bulldogs are well positioned to make a College Football Playoff appearance, but injuries have taken a toll on their roster depth. How can Georgia prepare for the playoff over the next few weeks, should it gain one of the 12 spots?
How did Saturday’s action affect our Power Rankings?
Here’s the latest top 25 from our college football experts, who provide their insight on each team following Week 12.
Previous ranking: 1
The 11-0 Ducks escaped Wisconsin with a 16-13 comeback victory in the fourth quarter. But again, Oregon couldn’t stifle the opposing team’s running game, as Badgers running back Tawee Walker kept the Ducks offense off the field with 97 yards on 20 carries. Oregon now ranks 71st nationally in EPA (expected points added) on run defense (minus-8.99), and 12th in the Big Ten. The league’s other playoff contenders — Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State — all rank in the top 11 nationally in EPA run defense. Oregon is sure to face prolific rushing attacks in the playoff. Getting key stops against the run — and getting its high-powered offense back on the field — will be paramount, if the Ducks are going to make a run to their first national championship. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 2
The Buckeyes’ defense has responded very well from its loss to Oregon, holding its past four opponents to under 20 points and fewer than 275 yards per game. But the Buckeyes (9-1) will need to be a bit sharper on third down this coming week against Indiana, which entered Week 12 ranked 10th nationally in third-down conversions (49.1%). Northwestern converted five of its first 11 third-down chances against Ohio State on Saturday at Wrigley Field, and could have made the game more competitive if it had finished drives in Buckeyes territory.
Coach Ryan Day noted the early third-down struggles and the defense’s improvement as the game went along, saying, “We settled down a little bit.” Ohio State will need its veteran defensive line to pressure Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has been sacked only 10 times this season, and fluster a Hoosiers offensive line that struggled against Michigan. — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 3
The 9-1 Longhorns avoided a major pothole on their road to a showdown with Texas A&M that could have SEC championship game implications, fending off a pesky Arkansas team. Texas still couldn’t get its vertical passing game on track due to the Hogs’ three-safety approach on defense, and Texas players admitted it was frustrating. But in a road game against old rivals who anxiously awaited a chance to break Texas’ hearts the way the Longhorns had done to them for years, Steve Sarkisian’s team adjusted and was able to grind out the 20-10 win. The star was the defense, which was smothering all day, holding an offense that averaged 484 yards per game to just 231. Texas has Kentucky on Saturday before the Aggies on Nov. 30. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 5
Areas of improvement are tough to find for an Indiana team that leads the nation in scoring margin (301) and is 10-0 for the first time. But the Hoosiers’ offensive struggles in the second half on Nov. 9 against Michigan sounded some alarm bells, especially since they will face an Ohio State team with a lot more talent this week. IU had only 17 net yards on 24 plays in the second half against the Wolverines, as reliable quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw an interception near the goal line and a banged-up offensive line showed cracks for the first time.
The second open week came at a good time, as Rourke is still recovering from surgery on the thumb on his throwing hand, while wide receiver Myles Price and others had a chance to rest up. Indiana’s line-of-scrimmage play has been overlooked with all the other highlights, but the Hoosiers must hold up there against Ohio State to have a chance in Columbus. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 6
Penn State thrashed Purdue 49-10, as expected. But if the Nittany Lions are going to make a playoff run, they’re going to need to be sharper in the red zone. Coming into the weekend, Penn State (9-1) ranked just 48th in red zone scoring percentage (87.2%). Missed opportunities in the red zone doomed the Nittany Lions in their Nov. 2 loss to Ohio State.
Twice, Penn State had first-and-goal at the Buckeyes’ 3-yard line, but both times it came up empty. Ohio State’s Davison Igbinosun wrestled the ball away for an interception just before halftime. Then, with a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, Penn State couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone. Had the Nittany Lions converted both of those opportunities, they’d still be undefeated. Penn State can’t afford to come up empty on deep drives if it wants to advance in the playoff. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 8
It wasn’t supposed to be close, and it wasn’t Saturday in Alabama’s 52-7 rout of outmanned FCS foe Mercer. It was a scrimmage of sorts for the Crimson Tide (8-2, 4-2) before diving into their final two games of the season and what would almost certainly be a berth in the SEC championship game if they can win out against Oklahoma on the road this coming weekend and then Auburn at home on Nov. 30.
Turnovers will be key for Alabama the rest of the way. The Crimson Tide hurt themselves with turnovers in their two losses, so taking care of the ball will be critical. Quarterback Jalen Milroe was done midway through the third quarter after piling up 229 total yards of total offense and accounting for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). He has also been better at limiting his turnovers. Alabama’s defense forced three turnovers in what was the Tide’s third straight dominant performance. Since the 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 5, Alabama has not given up more than 25 points in a game. — Chris Low
Previous ranking: 10
After what might end up being a season-defining win over Georgia, Ole Miss (8-2) enjoyed a bye in Week 12 in anticipation of a manageable but anxious home stretch. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels will wrap the season with a trip to Florida and an Egg Bowl visit from Mississippi State. They will be comfortably favored in both games, and at 11th in the CFP rankings, they’ll have a solid shot at ending up in the playoff if they win out. But it’s not a guarantee, and Florida, who just beat LSU on Saturday, is a pretty dangerous underdog at the moment. The Gators will test Ole Miss’ big-play prevention capabilities: On six of 43 snaps against LSU, Florida gained at least 20 yards. MSU can bite off chunk plays as well, and if Ole Miss is to win out, discipline in the back will be a must. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 13
Now that the sky is no longer falling in Athens, Georgia, after the Bulldogs took down Tennessee 31-17 on Saturday night, they need to focus on trying to get healthy for the stretch run. Tailback Trevor Etienne missed the game with a rib injury, leaving freshmen Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens to carry the load against the Volunteers. Receiver Dillon Bell went down with an ankle injury; coach Kirby Smart didn’t know the severity of the injury. Georgia’s depleted receiver corps, which was missing suspended Colbie Young, was already razor thin in terms of depth.
The Bulldogs (8-2) were forced to play only five offensive linemen the entire game because starting tackle Earnest Greene III is battling a shoulder injury. The starting unit of left tackle Monroe Freeling, left guard Dylan Fairchild, center Jared Wilson, right guard Tate Ratledge and right tackle Xavier Truss didn’t allow a sack and gave quarterback Carson Beck plenty of time to work. He completed 25 of 40 passes for 347 yards with three total touchdowns. Georgia had four scoring drives of 75 yards or more. With non-SEC games remaining against UMass and Georgia Tech at home, Georgia is well-positioned to make the CFP. — Mark Schlabach
Previous ranking: 11
The Irish (9-1) continued their dominance of the ACC, walloping Virginia 35-14 and finishing 5-0 against their part-time conference for the year. Since beginning a scheduling agreement with the ACC that guarantees five games against the conference each season in 2014, Notre Dame has finished without a regular-season loss six times and is 50-11 overall against the ACC. In the win over Virginia, Riley Leonard threw for three touchdowns, and Jeremiyah Love ran for two more. Notre Dame’s playoff hopes likely come down to next week’s game against undefeated Army. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 9
The 9-1 Hurricanes had an open date to prepare for their final two regular-season games, with an ACC championship game berth on the line. There is little doubt Miami spent that time focusing on its defense, and ways to ensure the breakdowns we have seen in recent weeks — especially in a loss to Georgia Tech — are fixed. While the Miami secondary had shown inconsistency throughout the season, what was particularly galling in the loss to the Yellow Jackets was a run defense that simply was out of position and unable to adjust — allowing 271 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Up next is Wake Forest and running back Demond Claiborne, one of the better rushers in the league. The matchup will provide a good test to see whether Miami has fixed one of its bigger issues. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 12
With BYU’s loss to the Kansas Jayhawks, Boise State (9-1) is inching closer toward the possibility of receiving a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos got off to a slow start at San José State on Saturday, but after falling behind 14-0, they closed the game on a 42-7 run to win convincingly as Ashton Jeanty broke the single-season school rushing record. With 1,893 yards through 10 games, Jeanty is sure to be a Heisman Trophy finalist and could soon be within striking distance of Barry Sanders’ single-season FBS rushing record of 2,628 yards from 1988. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 4
The Volunteers’ eighth straight loss to Georgia didn’t necessarily knock them out of the CFP, but they’re going to face an uphill battle to get back into the top 12 unless there are some upsets in the final two weeks of the regular season. Tennessee (8-2) had a great win over Alabama at home, but victories over struggling NC State and Oklahoma won’t do much to help its chances. Against the Bulldogs, the Volunteers couldn’t protect quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who returned after suffering a concussion last week, and couldn’t get enough pressure on Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.
Iamaleava was sacked five times. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 167 yards. The UT defense didn’t have a sack and had only two tackles for loss, allowing Beck to throw for 347 yards with two scores. Georgia went 8-for-14 on third down and 5-for-5 in the red zone. If the Vols beat UTEP and Vanderbilt in their final two games, they’ll be in the CFP discussion. They’ll probably be wondering if they’ve done enough. — Schlabach
Previous ranking: 14
Certainly, there is plenty to clean up after a 38-28 win over Boston College in which the Eagles took the Mustangs (9-1) down to the wire. BC was able to run the ball for 180 yards and three touchdowns and held the ball for nearly 11 more minutes than the Mustangs — not a huge surprise, given the Eagles clearly planned to slow down SMU and limit its possessions. But SMU’s defense made the plays it needed to in the end, sacking Grayson James on consecutive plays late in the game to help secure the win.
SMU heads to Virginia next to keep its undefeated league mark intact and move one step closer to an ACC championship game appearance. Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith were spectacular once again, combining to score all four of the Mustangs’ touchdowns. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 7
Another late game-winning drive wasn’t in the cards for BYU, which dropped its first game of the season, 17-13 at home vs. Kansas. The Cougars (9-1) remain tied with Colorado atop the Big 12 standings at 6-1, but are in a position now where they will likely need to win at Arizona State (5-2) on Friday to reach the conference title game. Their 13 points against Kansas were the fewest they have scored in a game this season, as Jake Retzlaff completed 18 of 28 passes for 192 yards with a touchdown and an interception. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 17
The Aggies (8-2) needed a get-right game after getting shut out in the second half of a 44-20 loss at South Carolina on Nov. 2 that snapped their seven-game winning streak. They worked out some kinks against New Mexico State, including allowing just 50 yards to the other Aggies in the first half. Marcel Reed further solidified his place as A&M’s starter with two passing touchdowns and a rush for another.
In the first game without leading rusher Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels had five carries for 84 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown, and A&M was able to empty the bench and even get the all-walk-on 12th Man kickoff team some time. The Aggies will have to lock in for a dangerous night game at Auburn on Saturday before returning home to defend Kyle Field against the Longhorns on Nov. 30. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 15
Army (9-0) watched Tulane clinch the other spot in the AAC championship on Saturday; the Green Wave and Black Knights will face off for the title on Dec. 7. But first comes maybe the biggest (non-Navy) Army game in decades Saturday, when the Black Knights head to Yankee Stadium to face Notre Dame in a game that could determine their CFP viability. With a win, they would almost certainly rise into the teens in the CFP rankings. To pull off the upset, though, the Black Knights might have to find their inner disruptor. They are great at the bend-but-don’t-break routine, forcing few negative plays but allowing no big plays and making stops in the red zone. But Notre Dame can run the ball (and finish in the red zone) with ruthless efficiency, and if Army can’t knock the Irish off-schedule, it might not make enough stops. — Connelly
Previous ranking: 16
The Buffaloes (8-2) are on a four-game winning streak and could legitimately win a Big 12 title in Deion Sanders’ second season. But a 49-24 rout of Utah on Saturday left their head coach wanting more from the rushing attack. Arkansas transfer Isaiah Augustave broke a 37-yard touchdown run against the Utes, but the Buffs’ backs combined for 32 yards on 11 carries over the rest of the game. “We can do some remarkable things if we have a more balanced offense,” Sanders said. Colorado has gained 1,017 yards on non-sack rushes this season, fewest among all Power 4 offenses. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 20
The Gamecocks are one of those teams that nobody is lining up to play right now, and one of the things that will make them even more formidable the rest of the way will be holding on to leads. They’re finding different ways to win, growing up in key areas and smothering opposing offenses with a defensive line that’s right up there with any in college football. The Gamecocks (7-3, 5-3) rallied past Missouri in the final minute for a 34-30 win on Saturday, giving them their fourth straight victory and marking only the second time in the past 11 seasons they have finished with a winning SEC record.
The only real snag is that the Gamecocks had a two-touchdown lead early and couldn’t hold on. That could come back to bite them down the road. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers, a redshirt freshman, is blossoming at just the right time. He passed for 353 yards and five touchdowns, with the final one being the game winner to Rocket Sanders on a 15-yard shovel pass. Two nonconference games remain for South Carolina: against Wofford at home this coming weekend and then at home vs. bitter in-state rival Clemson on Nov. 30. The Gamecocks are one of the more improved teams in the country from a year ago and a couple of close losses to LSU and Alabama away from being right in the middle of the playoff conversation. — Low
Previous ranking: 19
The Tigers are done with ACC play with two weeks to go in the regular season, going 7-1 (8-2 overall), and still have a slight chance to make it to the ACC championship game after an up-and-down 24-20 win over Pitt on Saturday. The easiest route would be for Miami to lose again. No matter what happens, Clemson suddenly has issues on its offensive line, which lost another player Saturday. The Tigers are down multiple starters, and it showed in a ragged effort against the Panthers in which they were unable to run the ball until Cade Klubnik‘s late touchdown; Klubnik was harassed for the majority of the game. The Citadel is up next, and then a huge matchup against rival South Carolina at home as the Tigers seek to notch another 10-win season. — Adelson
Previous ranking: NR
Kenny Dillingham and his coaching staff continues to pull off one of the best turnarounds in the country. The 8-2 Sun Devils notched another statement win on Saturday with a 24-14 road stunner over No. 16 Kansas State. Redshirt freshman QB Sam Leavitt is playing at a high level, Jordyn Tyson burned the Wildcats for 176 receiving yards and two scores on 12 catches and the Sun Devils’ defense didn’t allow a score until late in the third quarter. One area where they’ll need to improve if they hope to win out: the kicking game. Former USC and Ohio State transfer Parker Lewis has taken over the kicking duties and converted a 47-yard field goal against K-State. — Olson
Previous ranking: 25
It’s difficult to nitpick a Green Wave team that has won eight straight games by an average margin of 28.8 points and clinched a spot in the AAC title game with a 35-0 win over Navy on Saturday. However, if Tulane (9-2) wants to make the most of its outside shot at a playoff berth, it could use an uptick in the passing game. Freshman quarterback Darian Mensah delivered another efficient performance in Week 12 (10-of-14, 138 yards, two TDs), while Tulane’s 10th-ranked rushing attack totalled 220 yards. The Green Wave offense is rolling, but Mensah has eclipsed 14 completions just twice over the past eight games and 200 yards only three times during that stretch. The Tulane run game has carried Jon Sumrall’s program this fall, but it will need a passing attack when it meets Army — and the nation’s No. 3 run defense (82.6 yards per game) entering Week 12 — in the AAC championship game on Dec. 6. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: NR
The Cyclones (8-2) snapped a two-game skid Saturday with a 24-point second half powered by a pair of Rocco Becht touchdowns. But the biggest hitch in Iowa State’s slim Big 12 title game (and playoff) hopes remains a run defense that was gashed for 287 rushing yards in a 34-17 road win over Cincinnati on Saturday night. The injuries that have ravaged Iowa State’s defense in the back half of the season have shown up on the ground, where Jon Heacock’s unit has now given up 200-plus yards in five of the Cyclones’ past eight games. Can Iowa State improve against the run with a depleted and inexperienced defense in the coming weeks? Unclear. But it’s the area in which the Cyclones need to improve if they’re going to scrap back into the conference title race ahead of a visit to Utah and a home game vs. Kansas State to close the regular season. — Lederman
Previous ranking: 18
The Cougars escaped a number of close calls throughout the season, but their luck finally caught up with them in a poor road performance at New Mexico. Wazzu led 28-14 at halftime, only to collapse in a 38-35 loss, with New Mexico scoring the game-winning touchdown with 21 seconds to play. If the Cougars (8-2) win out, they can still tie their single-season school wins record (11), but there’s no sugarcoating this: It was a terrible loss to take this deep in the season. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: NR
There’s not much to nitpick about the 8-2 Rebels following their 41-20 win over San Diego State late Saturday night. UNLV was never in much danger in this one, pulling away with a 21-point second quarter and surpassing 250 yards both passing and rushing. The Rebels have a top-10 scoring offense in the FBS but haven’t been among the nation’s best in third-down efficiency, ranking 86th entering Saturday with a conversion rate of 38%. They boosted that percentage against the Aztecs by going 8-for-16, but coach Barry Odom knows it’s going to take excellent situational football to win the Mountain West. — Olson
Previous ranking: 24
For the first time since a loss to Kentucky in November 2022, Missouri lost a one-score game. The Tigers’ nine-game winning streak in such games came to an end at the hands of LaNorris Sellers, Raheim Sanders and the South Carolina offense. Mizzou got a gutty performance from quarterback Brady Cook, who started despite being listed as doubtful for much of the week because of a wrist injury; the senior threw for 237 yards and got 150 rushing yards from Nate Noel and a glorious late touchdown from Luther Burden III to give the Tigers the lead with 1:10 left. But the Gamecocks scored 55 seconds later, and Mizzou fell to 6-3. The biggest challenge for the rest of the season: remaining focused. Mizzou entered the season with playoff hopes, and those are out the window, but the Tigers will be favored in each of their last two games and could still finish 9-3. That’s never bad in Columbia. — Connelly
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Pete Thamel
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Eli Lederman
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Eli Lederman
ESPN Staff Writer
- Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
Julian Lewis, the No. 2 player and quarterback in the 2025 class, decommitted from USC on Sunday, sources told ESPN, sealing a seismic development for one of the nation’s top prospects in the closing weeks of the recruiting cycle.
Lewis’ decommitment, which had been expected, comes the day after the 6-foot-1, 195-pound quarterback took an unofficial visit to Georgia for the game against Tennessee. He also visited Colorado on Oct. 26 and expressed interest in Indiana throughout his recruitment.
The plan remains for Lewis to commit in the upcoming weeks and enroll early in school, according to sources. He’s the top uncommitted player in the class of 2025 and his choice looms as one of the biggest stories of the early signing period with Colorado, Georgia and Indiana expected to contend for his signature before the signing period opens Dec. 4.
Sources also told ESPN on Sunday that four-star Texas A&M quarterback pledge Husan Longstreet, No. 47 in the 2025 ESPN 300, has flipped his pledge to USC in the wake of Lewis’ departure from the Trojans’ incoming class.
USC quarterbacks coach Luke Huard attended Longstreet’s playoff game at Corona Centennial High School in California on Friday night, and ESPN’s No. 4 pocket passer visited the Trojans during their game against Nebraska on Saturday.
Lewis had been verbally committed to the Trojans since Aug. 22, 2023. Yet questions had swirled over his recruitment from the summer into the fall and all the way through to his decommitment from USC on Sunday.
Lewis’ move marks the latest blow to a USC class that has now lost six commitments from the 2025 ESPN 300 in this cycle.
That list of high-profile departures from Lincoln Riley’s incoming class includes five-star defenders Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson, and Lewis’ exit stands as USC’s third recruiting loss in the past seven days following the flips of defensive lineman Hayden Lowe (Miami) and cornerback Shamar Arnoux (Auburn).
The Trojans sat ninth in ESPN’s latest class rankings for the 2025 cycle prior to Lewis’ decommitment.
With the move, Lewis instantly regains status as the one of nation’s most sought-after uncommitted prospects. He first entered that realm in 2022 when he burst onto the national scene with 4,118 yards and 48 touchdowns while leading Carrollton to the Georgia 7A state title game in his freshman season.
That debut campaign earned Lewis a place as the No. 1 prospect in the 2026 class before he reclassified into the 2025 cycle earlier this year, several months after his commitment to USC last August.
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