How real are the Rays? Inside Tampa Bay’s historic unbeaten start
Yes, it’s only 10 games into the 2023 MLB season but what the Tampa Bay Rays have done so far is mind-boggling: A 10-0 record. A plus-58 run differential. And their 1-0 win against the Boston Red Sox on Monday was the first time they’ve won by fewer than four runs.
To make sense of it all, we asked ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle to answer one of these three questions: Why do the Rays believe this team is special? What do the numbers show us so far? How real are the Rays?
The undefeated Rays! Are they as surprised as we are?
During the Rays’ postgame victory celebrations, when they toast the heroes of the game, players get together and decide who will drink the tequila shot given to the best pitcher that day. Among those who have yet to receive the honor this season: closer Pete Fairbanks. The Rays have won so convincingly that before Fairbanks registered a save to lock down Tampa Bay’s 10th consecutive win Monday, his teammates had saddled him with a new nickname fitting for someone who throws so infrequently: Rarebanks.
Chances are the Rays will level off, Rarebanks will morph back to Fairbanks and the excitement surrounding the most dominant start in nearly a century and a half will give way to a dogfight in the American League East. For now, though, the Rays are a vibe, a team embracing all the things that make it good and running roughshod through an easy early schedule in historic ways.
Everything is working — and lest you believe that’s an exaggeration, chew on these numbers going into Monday night’s 1-0 victory over Boston, the Rays’ third consecutive shutout:
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Runs scored: 76 (1st in MLB)
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Runs allowed: 18 (1st)
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OPS: .967 (1st)
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ERA: 1.89 (1st)
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Barrel %, batters: 14.2% (1st)
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Hard hit %, pitchers: 32.1% (1st)
Category after category, the Rays find themselves at the top. (Which, as we’ll get to below, is in part a function of a schedule that has included series against the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals and Oakland Athletics.) And while Tampa Bay’s sprint to an undefeated start has surprised outsiders, it aligns with the Rays’ internal expectations entering the season. From the front office to the clubhouse, they believed they were a very good baseball team. They simply needed to show the world how good.
During an Opening Day players-only meeting, the Rays emphasized that even though they were coming off their fourth consecutive postseason appearance, this was a new year, a new opportunity to play like the team they believed they could be. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena could be stars. Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen could take leaps. The bullpen could be the island of misfit toys. They just needed to do it together.
Winning 10 games — the first nine by at least four runs, something that hadn’t been done during a nine-or-more-game winning streak since 1884, when the pitcher’s mound was 50 feet from home plate — reinforced that notion of camaraderie, fellowship, fun. This isn’t a team that started in the depths of the minor leagues together and worked its way up; only seven of the players on the Rays’ 26-man roster are homegrown. They’ve nonetheless figured out how to coalesce, with each player filling a necessary role, something the Rays preach and achieve better than anyone.
Franco and Arozarena are playing like stars — and the next eight hitters with the most plate appearances on the team (Luke Raley, Harold Ramirez, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Brandon Lowe, Manuel Margot, Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz) all are slugging .467 or better. Springs and Rasmussen have thrown a combined 26 scoreless innings, and Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin aren’t far behind, with six runs allowed over 23 innings. The bullpen ERA of 1.50 is best in the AL.
Long lauded for its relief depth, Tampa Bay entered the season looking for something new. Even with Tyler Glasnow out because of a strained oblique, the Rays wanted their starting pitchers to work deeper into games and avoid overtaxing their bullpen. It has mostly worked: Before using an opener against Boston, Tampa Bay’s 29 innings from relievers this year were the third fewest in baseball.
The Rays’ schedule grew more meddlesome starting Monday against Boston, and it really accelerates starting May 5: New York Yankees, at Baltimore Orioles, at Yankees, at New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers — 23 games in 24 days. By that point, they’ll presumably have come back to earth, but until then, they’re happy to keep hoisting those shots of tequila, knowing what they are doing, regardless of who they’ve done it against, is indeed rare. — Passan
So how much of this is the Rays — and how much is the competition they are facing?
It’s been 20 years since the 2003 Kansas City Royals started 9-0 — the last team before the Rays to do that. Those Royals finished 83-79, and if they’re remembered for anything, it’s for posting the franchise’s only winning season between 1995 and 2012.
Now after getting to 10-0, the Rays are aiming for the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers and 1982 Atlanta Braves, who both started with 13 straight wins, the longest winning streaks to begin a season. The Braves held on to win the NL West that season (that’s right, they were in the West), but the after slugging outfielder Rob Deer made the cover of Sports Illustrated, the Brewers soon squandered their hot start with a 12-game losing streak in May.
While winning 10 straight to start the season is unusual, winning nine in a row isn’t: There were six separate winning streaks of at least nine games last season, including the Seattle Mariners and Braves both winning 14 in a row. But what we haven’t seen in a long time is a nine-game stretch of dominance like this one by Tampa Bay. The Rays won all nine games by at least four runs, the first team to do that at any point in a season since the 1939 Yankees — a team many consider the greatest of all time.
The Rays have trailed in just two of their 10 games — they trailed the Nationals for five innings in their fifth game before scoring five runs in the top of the ninth on three home runs for a 10-6 victory and they trailed the A’s 1-0 in the top of the second inning in their seventh game before exploding for six runs in the bottom of that inning. The Rays’ run differential of plus-58 is the best through the first 10 games of a season since the 1884 St. Louis Maroons of the dubiously professional Union Association and the 1884 New York Gothams of the National League. Those comparisons to teams from 1884 are a little silly, so let’s compare that run differential to last season’s top winning streaks:
Mariners (14): +36
Braves (14): +60
Dodgers (12): +61
Astros (11): +43
Yankees (11): +48
Orioles (10): +22
The Rays’ run differential per game still beats any of those streaks. This is where we now mention who the Rays have played: the Tigers, Nationals, A’s and now one game against the Red Sox. There’s a strong likelihood that three of those clubs might be the three worst teams in the majors at the end of the season. So, yes, the Rays took advantage of a soft schedule. But that’s usually the case with winning streaks. The Braves beat the Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s, Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks in their 14-game streak, all teams that would finish with losing records, while the Mariners also played the Nationals and A’s (although they did win six in a row against the Blue Jays and San Diego Padres).
That’s not to diminish what the Rays have done — they’re succeeding in every aspect of the game. Perhaps the biggest key is they’re hitting a lot of home runs — 25 so far, in all 10 games this season. The Rays were third in the AL in home runs in 2021 when they finished second in runs scored, but they fell all the way to 11th in both categories last season. If they keep hitting home runs — Franco leads the way with four — they’re going to be tough to beat. — Schoenfield
Bottom line: Are the Rays for real?
After the Rays’ back-to-back 11-0 drubbings of the rebuilding Athletics over the weekend, their start made the leap from absurd to sublime. At that point, the Rays were on pace to outscore their opponents 1,350 to 324 this season. Those numbers are stunning, eye-popping, spine-tingling, or whatever hyperbolic adjective you want to conjure. They are also, if we’re being realistic, all but fictional.
No MLB team is that good. If you identified the best possible 40-man roster made up of all the best-right-now professional baseball players in the world and put them on the same team, that club would not outscore its opponents by 1,026 runs over the course of a season. It would not do anything close to that. So from that standpoint, as amazing as the Rays have been, this start is more unreal than real.
Still, there are lots of reasons to think that this unprecedented start offers some real evidence of a special team, quality of opposition aside. It’s way, way too early to start talking about things like 116 wins or a 1939 Yankees-level run differential, which was a modern era record plus-411. However, it’s not too early to suggest that the Rays might have already surpassed the Yankees as the favorites in the AL East. Some of the betting outlets have flipped, others have the Rays closing in fast. Either way, the bottom line is that the Rays’ early surge is creating a lot of believers.
This is not because the Yankees have floundered, either. New York has been very good in the early going and has plenty of reasons to stake a claim to the title as the best team in the majors. My own power rankings have the Rays and Yankees as the top two clubs in baseball, in that order. The Rays won the AL East in 58% of my most recent run of simulations, up from 19% when the season began. That surge has happened even though the Yankees’ strong power rating hasn’t changed much. The Bombers have played to expectations, but the Rays have exceeded their forecast to a degree that has changed their outlook, even though the season is less than two weeks old and even though they opened the season against baseball’s lesser lights.
All this being said, I do think the scale of the Rays’ early run differential overwhelms systems like mine and, I assume, others. Sure, we adjust for schedule but those adjustments are conservative, especially this early in the season. The Rays will fall back, relatively speaking. The only question is how far. We’ll know a lot more about six weeks from now, as the Rays have already completed one of the softest stretches of schedule any team will have this season. In the weeks ahead, matchups with the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Red Sox and Brewers all loom.
For now, what we can do is look at some of the early metrics that have led to this run, the ones that are somewhat opponent agnostic and meaningful in short samples.
On offense, the Rays lead the majors in barrel rate and near the top in average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. This has led to an off-the-charts isolated power percentage (.299) that laps the field. For context: The big-league record for isolated power at the team level in a season in a non-shortened season is .224, by the 2019 Minnesota Twins. So that’s not sustainable and there is probably a strong element in that figure that reflects the pitching the Rays have faced.
Still, stylistically this is who the Rays are. Only the Athletics and Pirates have a higher average launch angle. Elevating the ball is what this collection of Rays seeks to do. They won’t keep hitting homers at this rate, but they’ll keep trying.
As their homer rates drop, however, the Rays’ offense could still maintain much of its early scoring rate by a corresponding climb in offensive BABIP. So far, Tampa Bay’s BABIP is just .283, 16 points below the big league average, and that’s despite all of those hard-hit balls. The sky-high flyball rate has something to do with that (fly balls that don’t leave the yard tend to be caught) but the Rays do have a line-drive rate around league average. Yet their average on line drives is about 40 points below league average. This, too, will level out and in this category, it’ll be to the Rays’ favor.
On the pitching side, one quick observation we can make is the Rays have been baseball’s stingiest run prevention team even though Glasnow has been on the IL with an oblique injury. Also: The Rays’ team defensive metrics have been more middling than elite, but Tampa Bay projected to land somewhere in the six-to-eight range in team defense going into the season.
As those things find their levels, it should be a mild boost for the Rays on the run-prevention side. Their early sub-2.00 ERA isn’t sustainable, of course. In fact, the Rays have been merely good (as opposed to off the charts) in things like FIP and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Per Statcast, their WOBA allowed (.240) is a whopping 28 points better than their expected WOBA (.268). Those numbers will move closer together as the season goes along.
Here’s the thing: That expected WOBA figure is the second-best in the majors. That’s really the theme of the Rays across the board. Their key indicators aren’t going to remain this far ahead of the majors over the full season. But that doesn’t mean that they won’t remain strong.
For now, all we can say is that the Rays were a strong on-paper team before the season started and what they’ve done against lesser opposition to date is remarkable. But all of those wins and runs and runs prevented have given Tampa Bay a sprinting start to the campaign. Surely the Rays will be challenged as the months pass, but the onus is now on the competition to chase them down.
Maybe the Rays haven’t yet broken baseball. Still, this is a team we expected to be good, really good, and this amazing start suggests that despite our high hopes for the 2023 Rays, we may have actually underrated them. — Doolittle
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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