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OXFORD, Miss. — Lane Kiffin’s coffee looks like someone shoveled dirt in a pot and set it to boil. Mysterious clumps float on top. It’s best not wondering what’s sunk to the bottom. “It’s some digestive thing that’s supposed to make you lose weight,” Kiffin says, gesturing to the Styrofoam cup atop his desk, unsure if it’s meant to reduce bloat, increase metabolism or both.

Kiffin is committed to living a healthy lifestyle these days, so over the course of an hour-long conversation about everything from his vision for Ole Miss football to how Auburn tried to lure him away last fall to the impact the transfer portal and NIL have had on the sport, he sips the brownish concoction until it’s gone.

“I tried hard this week,” he says. “I was in California on spring break and didn’t work out that much. So I went this morning to hot yoga for the” — he closes his eyes, counting in his head — “ninth time.”

Nine times since Monday, and it’s only Friday afternoon. “Two-a-days,” he says, as if he too is a player in the middle of spring practice. The first class is at 6:15 a.m. It’s 105 degrees and as humid as a sauna inside thanks to a steam machine Kiffin bought the studio out of his own pocket. “A lot of coaches obviously have addictive personalities,” he admits, “so when they do get into something, they go full speed.”

The weight loss is nice, but it’s the mental health boost that Kiffin craves. The workout is so demanding, he says, that he has to shut off his brain to get through it. Thoughts of career paths and roster management and the upcoming season are set aside. There’s only the sound of the instructor’s voice and Kiffin’s own labored breathing.

“How you are on your mat, like your presence, your ability to deal with things and push through, is going to be equivalent to how the rest of your day is going to be,” he says. He fancies himself an outside-the-box thinker, but he realizes this is all a bit much. “Most coaches wouldn’t admit they buy into yogi teachings.”

No, they certainly would not. But then again, most coaches wouldn’t still be here. They would have left when presented with an opportunity to go from a program that has never competed for a national championship during the modern era to one that has competed regularly on the sport’s biggest stage.

Kiffin, who at 47 has already been part of two dynasties and had several stops in between, signed a massive six-year contract extension to stay at Ole Miss. He bought the steam machine soon after turning Auburn down, figuring, “All right, I’m going to be here longer, so let’s get this thing fixed.”

It may look strange and maybe even a little unbelievable from the outside, but Kiffin trusts that Oxford has everything he needs both personally and professionally. He believes he has the tools to build a program that can capitalize on the way college football has changed, the science of assembling a roster becoming more reminiscent of the NFL.

Maybe it would be easier to win elsewhere, maybe even at Auburn with its tradition and vast resources. But he’s fine sweating it out at Ole Miss and doing things differently.

KIFFIN IS BLUNT in his assessment of the Auburn job. Ten years ago, he admits, “I don’t know that decision would’ve gone the same way.”

Back then, he says, he would have seen the opportunity in simplified terms. He would have run the numbers, found that the Tigers’ four head coaches before Bryan Harsin all had teams ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the final Associated Press poll, and that would have been enough for him to sign on the dotted line.

All four of those coaches were also fired with multiple years left on their deals, but Kiffin says he wasn’t overly influenced by the high rate of turnover. Nor was he swayed by Auburn’s reputation for meddlesome boosters. He believes he could have navigated those murky waters if he had to.

So why not leave Ole Miss? What exactly changed in his thinking and caused him to stay?

Kiffin says he’s in a different place mentally, more mature.

Granted, he still enjoys trolling people on Twitter, but he’s already lived a lifetime in the sport and wisdom was bound to sink in along the way. An offensive wunderkind on Pete Carroll’s USC staffs in the 2000’s, Kiffin’s first head coaching job was in the NFL with the Oakland Raiders, which ended after 1½ seasons with owner Al Davis firing him and then holding a bizarre news conference explaining his decision in excruciating detail. Kiffin then went to Tennessee where he pissed off pretty much the entire SEC, left after one season to replace Carroll at USC, and was let go midway through his third season.

In the 10 years since being fired on a Los Angeles tarmac, he picked up the pieces by joining Nick Saban’s staff at Alabama, overhauling the offense and learning how the greatest coach of all time created and maintained a dynasty. They were an oddly fascinating couple, and they had a messy split, but Kiffin’s three years in Tuscaloosa led to him becoming a head coach again at Florida Atlantic, which in turn led to him finding his way back to the SEC at Ole Miss.

It’s been a long road to get back here, to a place where he has options. So instead of looking at one thing and making a decision about whether to go to Auburn, he looked at the situation in totality. He considered those firings and those boosters. Of course he did. But he also had to consider his personal situation. Was he really ready to start over again? Did he really want to tell his daughter, a senior in high school with plans on going to Ole Miss next year, that he was moving again?

And another part of the equation changed: the sport itself. With NIL and the transfer portal at his disposal, did Kiffin really believe Auburn was that much better positioned to win than Ole Miss? Maybe not. He had confidence in the program before, but, he says, “I have more confidence than I would’ve prior to this system.”

Again, he runs the numbers. Careful not to offend anyone, he says the record shows that Ole Miss doesn’t have a history of fielding top-five high school recruiting classes.

“Really,” he says, “it’s only happened once. So because of the portal and the one-time transfer, that helps your ability outside of those programs that you would put in that group that signs top-five classes every year.”

See: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc. Blue bloods.

“Outside of them, this helps because this allows you to have a good year, lose players [to the NFL] and not go like whoosh,” he says, mimicking a nosedive, “because you can plug in players [from the portal].”

To be clear, Kiffin doesn’t love the current structure of NIL and the portal, and how intertwined they’ve become. He calls it like it is: semi-professional sports, albeit with almost no oversight, no salary cap and no contracts to keep players in place. The only limit is your imagination and the strength of your school’s NIL funding.

“The current system, even though I have issues with parts of it and wish it was set up better,” Kiffin says, “I like the current system, especially the one-time transfer, for Ole Miss.”

By going all in on the portal, Kiffin has tried to turn a traditionally developmental program — one that’s capable of competing at a high level in short bursts — into one that minimizes down cycles and strives to get rid of them completely. Instead of waiting on three- and four-star high school recruits to develop, hoping they pan out, Kiffin can go out and sign established players from Power 5 schools.

This offseason, Ole Miss brought in linebackers from Louisville and UCF, an offensive lineman from Washington, a tight end from Memphis, a defensive lineman from NC State and a cornerback from Georgia Tech. Kiffin already had a 2,900-yard passer returning in Jaxson Dart — who transferred from USC a year ago — and still he went into the portal and signed former All Big 12 selection Spencer Sanders from Oklahoma State and former five-star prospect Walker Howard from LSU.

Kiffin used to preach to players about having a “pro mindset” so they would prepare like pros. But now it’s taken on a different meaning, including how they think about roster management.

A few days ago, Kiffin says, he was talking to his coaches about this very thing.

“These coaches sell parents on — especially in the south — come here, it’s family, we’re gonna treat you like family,” he says. “I’m like, ‘No, they’re not.’ If it was family, then why do coaches bring kids in and say, ‘Hey, we want to help you transfer, it’d be better for you to transfer.’? You don’t do that to your family. So the whole family thing, I said, ‘We have to teach some reality that there’s a business side.'”

The quarterback situation is a perfect example, Kiffin says. Because if they can go out and make a position group better, they can’t hesitate. Maybe it appears redundant to have Dart, Sanders and Howard sharing space. All three can’t play at once. But it’s also insurance at the most important position in football.

Kiffin tells players that competition ultimately makes everyone better, and, “Just like the pros, we can’t not sign players based off your feelings.”

“That’s not my job to make you happy,” he says. “My job is to make the best roster for our fans, for our [athletic director], for our chancellor that hired me.”

Jordan Watkins, a former transfer receiver from Louisville, feels for the high school players who are fighting for an opportunity. But, he says, “I would probably prefer the college guy too because of the competitive factor and they’ve been in a college system before.”

If Kiffin was at a place that traditionally recruited highschoolers at a higher level, such as Auburn or Alabama, he might think differently. It’s a challenge to build a roster this way; there’s no such thing as continuity when some players are on campus for only one semester. Watkins says it takes time for a team of transfers to gel. They have to break old habits and form new ones.

But Kiffin enjoys the problem-solving it requires. He has to think ahead: If he signs a transfer at a certain position, how will it impact the rest of the depth chart? Will younger players, sensing their reps are about to be cut, pack up and leave? It’s a high-wire act, balancing immediate needs with long-term stability.

Kiffin doesn’t claim to have the answer when it comes to how many high school recruits he should sign versus transfers. It’s a moving target, he says, but one he’s interested in trying to figure out.

He gestures to a sign outside his office. It has the Oakland A’s logo on it and “MONEYBALL” underneath, a nod to the groundbreaking way former baseball general manager Billy Beane exploited inefficiencies in scouting and changed the sport forever.

Kiffin doesn’t compare himself to Beane, although Beane had a chance to leave for a bigger market and never did. Kiffin’s point is that he and his staff strive to be ahead of the curve.

Another sign nearby puts it differently: “Change the way people think. We don’t think outside the box, we create a new one.”

IT’S NOT SOMETHING he picked up from his neighborhood yogi, granted, but Kiffin wants to talk about a self-help concept he found in the book “The Obstacle is the Way” by Ryan Holiday. To sum it up, Kiffin says, “Things happen that appear to be bad in your life and then really they’re not, and the obstacle was the way to improve.”

Case in point: Auburn came calling and Kiffin says Ole Miss fans saw it as a “distraction” and “probably wish it never happened.” Fine. That’s understandable considering the way the season ended with four straight losses, including to in-state rival Mississippi State. But step back and look at the timeline.

On Oct. 31, Auburn fires Harsin and Kiffin is immediately linked to the opening. Kiffin has already made it known that he believes Ole Miss’ collective is lagging behind those of the rest of the conference, and any coach considering a job should take into account a collective’s funding. Not doing so would be like a general manager in the NFL ignoring a prospective team’s cap space, he says.

The very next day, while Kiffin’s name is appearing on every Auburn candidate board online and in print, Ole Miss’ Grove Collective reports “unprecedented membership traffic.” Their website crashes. Thousands of people join and donate.

A few weeks later, on Nov. 23, the collective announces it has topped $10 million in funding.

That night, before the Mississippi State game, Kiffin tells his team he’s staying.

“So you can look at it and say, all right, there’s something we wish wouldn’t have happened and the whole Auburn thing was a distraction,” Kiffin says. “But you can also look at it and say, if that didn’t happen, what would the collective be? And not just in what we signed in the last portal and recruiting class, but the future? Or, more importantly, keeping our own players.”

Yes, Ole Miss retained Kiffin by giving him a raise to roughly $9 million per year. But its collective also raised the money needed to retain its best players. Tampering, Kiffin says, is happening “nationwide” with players being lured elsewhere with promises of a better situation (read: $).

So add one more date to the post-Auburn vacancy timeline: Dec. 1. Four days before the postseason transfer window opened and eight days after the Grove Collective’s $10 million announcement, running back Quinshon Judkins announces that he’s signed a deal with the collective to “continue my football career here at Ole Miss.” The SEC Freshman of the Year who set the school single-season record for rushing yards (1,567) and rushing touchdowns (16), Judkins was called “a lot” by other schools trying to get him to leave, Kiffin says.

“If you don’t have a good collective, you’re going to lose your own players and then you’re really in trouble,” Kiffin says. “I don’t care, you can pick an all-star coaching staff, if they don’t have a collective, they’re not going to win. So when you find a guy that wasn’t a five-star recruit — Quinshon — and you lose that, you can forget about it. How are you ever going to sign really good players? Because they’re going to say, ‘Wait, your own guy that was there and had all this success, he’s not even going to stay. Why am I going to go there? Why transfer and then when I get there all the good players are going to leave?'”

Or, in the case of the head coach, why stay when you’re worried you can’t retain your best players?

Time will tell whether Ole Miss’ collectives can continue this level of fundraising. Sustainability is a question on the mind of a lot of coaches and athletic directors these days. But for now, Kiffin feels good about the situation. He feels good about where he is and what they’re building for the future.

Ten years ago, he drove home from the airport unemployed. He thought he’d get another head coaching job quickly. Surely, people would remember that he inherited a program on probation, down 30 scholarships. And unlike Miami, which suffered similar penalties and struggled to reach .500, the Trojans were 28-15.

Kiffin understood he might not get a big-time Power 5 job, more likely something along the lines of Conference USA. “Not at all,” he recalls. “I’m not getting any calls.” It was a painful reminder, he says, “because we think differently of ourselves.”

So he went to Alabama and FAU. He didn’t lose faith. But he did gain perspective.

“I always had confidence in myself that I’d be back, but I don’t know that I would have said I’d have an SEC job and having another SEC school talk to me,” Kiffin says. “I don’t know that I would have said that. And I really don’t think there’s any way I would have bet I’d be in Oxford, Mississippi.”

He laughs. It’s actually become part of his sales pitch to players from the West Coast. He knows the idea they have in mind when they picture Ole Miss because he had the same idea himself. So he tells them, just come and visit, and then judge for yourself.

“I went from L.A. to Boca,” he says. “I never would have put Lane Kiffin in Mississippi.”

But this place, he says, is so much better than he thought.

“And I certainly wouldn’t have told you I’d ever been the head coach of the state of Mississippi and choosing to stay.”

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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26 mins ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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1 hour ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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