
No repeat division winners? A 64-homer season!? Our hottest hot takes two weeks into the MLB season
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adminWe are two weeks into the 2023 MLB season, and most teams have played a dozen games of their 162-game schedule. In other words, it’s early. Perhaps too early to glean a whole lot from what has happened so far. But what’s the fun in that?
We asked our MLB experts to go all-in on what they’ve seen by making a prediction based on this small sample size. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted, with two conditions: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they truly believe could happen this season.
Some of our predictors went really wild, while others chose to play it safe, so we took the liberty of ranking their choices from mild to spicy. Here is what they chose.
Born to be mild
AJ Mass: San Francisco will be the even-steven Giants
Forget the very good Tampa Bay Rays, off to an 11-0 start, and the very bad Oakland Athletics, already in last place and on their way to a 100-loss campaign. My hot take is that the San Francisco Giants will be the most feast and famine team in all of baseball. They’re going to have their very good days. They’re going to have their very bad days. But by the time we get to October, they’ll be exactly 81-81. And here’s where it gets interesting: They’ll lead the league both in the number of times they are shut out and the number of times they score in double digits.
Why it’s mild: This prediction is oddly specific, but that doesn’t make it all that bold. It’s a long season — and we all have our good days and our bad days. Our preseason projections had the Giants at 85 wins, so predicting them to finish four wins off, with an equal number of really good and really bad moments, isn’t going all that far out on a limb.
Joon Lee: A last-place finish in Boston?
Adam Duvall‘s broken wrist revealed the wobbly foundation of the Boston Red Sox‘s roster. To replace Duvall, Boston called up Bobby Dalbec, who has been trying to add shortstop and third base to his repertoire. The injury is pushing Boston to play Enrique Hernandez — who started the season at shortstop — in the outfield, where he has led the league in errors while filling in for the injured Trevor Story.
Boston already needed everything to go right this season to have a shot at the playoffs — but one injury has already shaken the Red Sox’s roster to its core.
Why it’s mild: To understand why we aren’t exactly melting from the heat of this take, one needs to look no further than the 2022 American League East standings, where you will find the Boston Red Sox all the way at the bottom. Combine what we saw on the field last year, the lack of a splashy offseason addition and a slow start this season, and it might actually be bolder to predict the Red Sox will finish anywhere other than the basement of a loaded division.
It’s not that you aren’t bold; others are just bolder
Brad Doolittle: The Brewers will make the playoffs — and the Dodgers won’t
I’m going to refrain from pointing out how the concept of hot takes makes rational people say things that they don’t actually mean. Instead, I will just point out that in 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a wider range of possibilities than they have had at any time in the past decade or longer. I also think the Milwaukee Brewers are going to make the playoffs. That is not a hot take. If the Brewers invade what felt like a largely set National League playoff field, someone will miss out. The hot take part of my otherwise rational mind tells me that team will be the Dodgers.
Why it’s (mostly) mild: OK, we’re going to refrain from pointing out that the concept of this exercise is to bring out your inner hot taker to tell us what you really mean but haven’t yet said. Instead, we will just point out that you spent the first half of your allotted hot take window explaining why the Brewers making the playoffs isn’t a hot take. Then right there at the end, you heat up and drop some boldness on us. We’ll give you some points for predicting the Dodgers’ playoff streak will end, but your hot take delivery is a work in progress, at best.
Eric Karabell: Rookies will carry the Dodgers to the top of the NL West
The Dodgers will have at least three of the top five in NL Rookie of the Year voting. James Outman already should be their regular center fielder, a potential 20-homer, 20-steal option with plate discipline. Second baseman Miguel Vargas is a walk magnet with power. Down on the farm, right-handers Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller are future aces; both are already better than No. 5 starter Noah Syndergaard, and who knows if Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin can stay healthy for six months. The Dodgers will win the NL West again, led by rookies in the lineup and rotation.
Why it’s (mostly) mild: This take is actually hotter than it looks on the surface. First, it’s important to point out that this is starting to feel like a loaded rookie class in the National League. Corbin Carroll, Jordan Walker, Kodai Senga and Garrett Mitchell have all shown why they are threats to win the award this year alongside the first two Dodgers you mentioned. Then you go ahead and add a third Dodger, who isn’t in the majors yet, as a potential breakout name to watch — and casually put L.A. ahead of San Diego in the NL West. Nailed the dismount.
Now we’re heating up
Tim Keown: The 2023 Athletics just might be the worst team … ever
It gives me no pleasure to report that the Oakland Athletics — who currently have a 3-9 record with an OPS of .655 and an ERA of 7.54 — have all the pieces in place to challenge the 1962 New York Mets for most losses in a 162-game season. The Mets, in their first season, lost 120, and it remains to be seen if the A’s can conjure the same lovable loser mythology that allowed those Mets to achieve a certain legendary status in the game’s history. More likely, Oakland’s unique combination of a spin-the-wheel roster and apathetic ownership will go down as more sad than playful.
Why it’s got some heat: Yes, the A’s are 3-9, but we really don’t need the standings to tell us that this is not a good baseball team. You also weren’t quite willing to predict that they would become the biggest single-season losers of all time — just that they have a chance to challenge for the dubious mark. That said, any time you are willing to throw out a comparison to the 1962 Mets this early in the season, you have our attention.
Alden Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani will win the Cy Young, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and, of course, MVP
I will say this confidently without even looking it up: This has never been done before. And thinking this is anything less than the hottest take imaginable only speaks to how much of a unicorn Shohei Ohtani actually is. Still, it’s … realistic? Let’s break it down.
Ohtani already won a Silver Slugger in 2021, and Yordan Alvarez won it in the designated hitter category in 2022. It could come down to those two again this year. The Cy Young might be just as reachable, given that Ohtani finished fourth in the voting last year, he lines up to make more starts in 2023 (he’ll pitch with five days’ rest each time, as opposed to operating within a strict six-man rotation and often getting additional time between starts) and he continues to evolve as a pitcher. A Gold Glove? That might actually be his toughest award; it’s really hard to decipher this for pitchers due to the rarity of fielding opportunities at that position. But Ohtani certainly has the ability here too. If he earns all three, he’ll win the MVP unanimously, again, and sign for a billion dollars — or something like that.
Why it’s got some heat: This take is not quite as hot as it originally sounds — but that is more a product of Ohtani being really, really good than a fault of the hot taker. Predicting any player to unanimously win MVP honors in a league that could see Aaron Judge hit 60-plus home runs again is bold. Predicting that same player will be the Cy Young in his league is also bold. The trouble here is that Ohtani is so amazing that predicting him to win both is actually taking a favorite for each award.
Now, if Ohtani’s next contract is actually for one billion dollars, we’ll come back and crown this the spiciest take on the list.
Wait, is anything about the Rays really that bold right now?
0:37
Mad Dog pours cold water on Rays’ hot start
Chris “Mad Dog” Russo doesn’t see the Rays as a World Series contender despite their hot start this season.
Buster Olney: The Rays will go wire to wire in the AL East
I’ll take my first mulligan in the preseason predictions and say: The Tampa Bay Rays are going to go wire to wire and win the AL East. That doesn’t mean that the New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays will fade; those are two very good teams. But the first two weeks have revealed the Rays as a deep and dangerous team: Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena have developed into core stars, and they’re surrounded by an excellent cast of supporting players. History shows us it’s possible for teams to break away early, never to be caught: the 1984 Tigers, 1955 Dodgers and 1977 Dodgers are examples. The balanced schedule means fewer games against the AL East, which will help the Rays keep their early-season grip on first place.
Why it’s actually pretty hot: Just two weeks ago, our MLB experts made their predictions for the season — and only one of our 28 voters tabbed the Rays to win the AL East. Now that was bold. But being willing to go all-in on Tampa Bay’s fast start two weeks in is still pretty hot. This leaves us to wonder how many of the other 27 voters who didn’t pick the Rays would switch their pick if given the chance today.
Jeff Passan: Your 2023 AL Cy Young will be … Jeffrey Springs
Yes, I’m suggesting a 30-year-old who before last season had started two games in his major league career is primed to beat out Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom and Shohei Ohtani for the prize of best pitcher in the American League. A 30th-round draft pick on his third organization will be better than Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and even his own teammate Shane McClanahan. Why? Well, the one-word answer is: sweeper. Springs bullied his way into Tampa Bay’s rotation last year on the strength of exceptional fastball command and a gyro-spinning changeup that dies three-quarters of the way to the plate. But the emergence of a legitimately excellent breaking pitch — the sweeping slider he developed over the winter — has taken a good pitcher and made him great. In six starts between spring training and the regular season, Springs has thrown 27 shutout innings, struck out 43 and allowed only 16 baserunners. He’s still +2500 to win the Cy Young. Get in before the odds grow even shorter.
Why it’s actually pretty hot: OK, Rays or not, this is coming in hot. Be honest, readers: How many of you actually knew who Jeffrey Springs was two weeks ago? (How many of you knew who he was two minutes ago?) Now, how about those readers who live outside of the greater Tampa area? Not many, right? So predicting the Rays pitcher will go from relative obscurity to topping names like Cole, deGrom, Ohtani, Cease, Alek Manoah for the AL’s top pitching honor is a very spicy take.
We do have to wonder though: Is this simply a case of one Jeffrey going all-in for another?
Who turned up the heat?
Paul Hembekides: 230 hits for Luis Arraez
I know, 230 is a massive number; no hitter has gotten there since Ichiro Suzuki in 2007. But there are two reasons Arraez can pull it off: He leads the majors in contact rate (91%) since he entered the league in 2019 and will benefit from the abolition of the shift as much as anybody (.178 batting average on pulled ground balls and infield line drives from 2019 to 2022). Should he continue to bat leadoff for the Miami Marlins, pencil him in for 700 plate appearances and a run at a hit total we’ve not seen in 16 years.
Why it’s a very hot take: You had us at Ichiro. Any time the category is hits and the answer includes “nobody has done this since Ichiro,” you are probably talking about a pretty significant feat. In fact, here is the entire list of players to reach 230 hits in a single season since 2000: Ichiro (three times) and Darin Erstad (in 2000). Add in the fact that Arraez’s career high is just 173 hits and the heat just keeps rising on this take.
Jesse Rogers: None of last year’s six division winners will repeat
This is coming from someone who picked all 12 playoff teams to return to the postseason two weeks ago. In the AL, the Seattle Mariners or Texas Rangers will upend the Houston Astros. The Minnesota Twins or Chicago White Sox will beat out the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays … well, you get it.
In the NL, Milwaukee’s magic continues through 162, and the San Diego Padres — or even the Arizona Diamondbacks — win the NL West. The NL East is where this take gets toughest; I don’t love picking against the Atlanta Braves, but the Mets will get a boost when Justin Verlander returns.
Why it’s a very hot take: A little behind-the-scenes hot take truth: This take just missed making the cut for our final and boldest category. What you did here reminds us of a term you usually hear in Las Vegas: parlay. None of these predictions is all that bold alone, but when you keep stacking the teams that won’t repeat as division champs, it adds up to a very hot take.
So what kept it just shy of the tier every hot taker is striving to reach? Well, let’s use another term you often hear in Vegas: hedging. There are a lot of eithers and ors when you get around to telling us who actually will win these divisions. And for that reason, it falls just shy of the next two takes.
You sure you can handle this heat?
David Schoenfield: Aaron Judge hits 64 home runs and posts the first 11-WAR season since Barry Bonds in 2002
Home runs are up. Batting averages are up. Walks are way up as pitchers are perhaps struggling adjusting to the pitch clock. Oh, and Aaron Judge is off to a strong start with four home runs already. Last year, he hit one his first 13 games. Judge’s maturation as a hitter is now complete; don’t forget that he hit .311 last season, second in the American League. He has learned to take care of his body and has been healthy the past two seasons. We haven’t even gotten to the warmer weather of summer when the ball really starts flying. All rise for a new AL home run record for the second straight season.
Why this take is straight fire: Look, every take on this list is hot in some shape or form. So to make it into this elite tier, the hottest of hot takes, it takes something extra spicy — and this take certainly fits.
In fact, when this take arrived, another hot taker couldn’t help but comment, “Dave coming in with a flamethrower and propane tank.” And who are we to argue over something that drew that kind of reaction. Sure, we could pick nits that the first half of this prediction is actually calling for Judge to hit just two more home runs than he did last season, which is not all that bold. But you then went ahead and doubled down with a WAR total that Barry Bonds is the only position player to reach this century and left us with no choice but to respect the heat.
Tristan Cockcroft: Rangers will be the AL West’s last team standing this October
They play in a competitive division in which three other teams were generally more popular preseason playoff picks; indeed, the Rangers were regarded more of a hey-maybe-in-2024 contender. But this team is built strongly enough to win now — and make serious noise during the postseason. Sure, a little luck is needed on the injury front (hello, Jacob deGrom), but piling up April and May wins will have a way of coaxing the Rangers’ big-spending, going-for-it-soon owner to dive right in. And since they possess organizational prospect depth that a mere handful of teams can rival, this is the team that shocks the world by trading for Shohei Ohtani at the deadline, the final puzzle player the Rangers need to make their serious October push. Just like last October, we’ll again be talking up the managerial prowess of an ex-Giants skipper.
Why this take is straight fire: When this take came in, we passed it around like, well, a hot potato, because we couldn’t handle the heat. One response summed it up best: “It’s like a Trojan horse. It’s bold … then gets super-specific bold.”
If you had just picked the Rangers to be the last AL West team standing, ahead of the defending champion Astros and the Shohei Ohtani/Mike Trout-led Angels, that alone would have been bold. But the way you just snuck in, “Oh, by the way, they’ll also trade for Ohtani — from across the same division, mind you,” without skipping a beat, that is the stuff of hot take legend. Now we just have to wait about 150 more games to see if any of this comes true.
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Umpire hit in face by line drive at Mets-Twins
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7 hours agoon
April 16, 2025By
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Associated Press
Apr 16, 2025, 03:47 PM ET
MINNEAPOLIS — Veteran umpire Hunter Wendelstedt had to leave the game in Minnesota on Wednesday after he was struck in the face behind first base by a line drive foul ball.
Wendelstedt instantly hit the ground after he took a direct hit from the line smash off the bat of New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor in the seventh inning. Both Taylor and Twins right-hander Louis Varland winced immediately after seeing where the ball hit Wendelstedt, who is in his 28th major league season as an umpire.
The 53-year-old Wendelstedt was down for a minute while being tended to by Twins medical staff and was able to slowly walk off on his own, pressing a towel against the left side of his head. Second base umpire Adam Hamari moved to first on the three-man crew for the remainder of the game.
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Braves’ Strider goes 5 in return; Blue Jays fan 19
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April 16, 2025By
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Associated Press
Apr 16, 2025, 03:34 PM ET
TORONTO — Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider allowed two runs and five hits in five-plus innings in his return to the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon.
Making his first big league appearance in 376 days because of surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Strider struck out five, walked one and hit a batter in the 3-1 loss. He threw 97 pitches, 58 for strikes.
Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt (2-0) struck out a season-high 10 and allowed three hits — all singles — as Toronto set a single-game, nine-inning record with 19 strikeouts. Bassitt lowered his ERA to 0.77 through four starts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had two of the five hits off Strider, including an RBI single in the third inning and a solo home run into the second deck on a full-count slider in the sixth. The homer — a 412-foot drive — was Guerrero’s first of the season.
Strider followed that by walking Anthony Santander, and Braves manager Brian Snitker immediately replaced Strider with left-hander Dylan Lee.
Strider struck out Bo Bichette on three pitches to begin the game. His hardest pitch was a 98 mph fastball to Guerrero in the first.
Strider struck out Myles Straw to strand runners at second and third to end the second.
The Braves activated Strider off the injured list Wednesday morning and optioned right-handed reliever Zach Thompson to Triple-A.
Strider struck out 13 in 5⅓ innings in a dominant rehab start at Triple-A last Thursday, allowing one run and three hits. He threw 90 pitches, 62 for strikes and reached 97 mph with his fastball.
The Braves are off to a slow start, and the return of Strider could provide a big lift. He went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 2023, finishing with a major league-best 281 strikeouts in 186⅔ innings and placing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Strider, 26, last appeared in the majors on April 5, 2024, against the Diamondbacks in Atlanta. He made two starts last season before undergoing surgery.
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The complicated life of a modern ace: How Paul Skenes has navigated it all by looking inward
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April 16, 2025By
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THE WORLD IS loud and fast and demanding, and to combat this, Paul Skenes forages for silence. He relishes the moments where the chaos gives way to blissful nothingness, just him and dead air. Right now, they are fewer and farther between than they’ve ever been in the past decade — a decade spent working toward this moment, when he is arguably the best pitcher in the world and inarguably the most internet-famous, which is the sort of thing that tends to put a damper on his quest for quiet.
“You can’t master the noise until you master the silence,” Skenes says. A coach told him that this offseason, and it spoke to Skenes, whose mastery of his first season in Major League Baseball — and a two-month stretch in which he went from top prospect to All-Star Game starting pitcher — set him on a path that only upped his daily dose of cacophony. He had been enjoying partaking in sound-free workouts, a far cry from the weightlifting sessions in Pittsburgh’s weight room — a petri dish of decibels and testosterone, suffused with grunts and clanks, ringed with TVs whose visual clamor complements the music thumping out of speakers, a lizard-brained heavenscape.
As fast as Skenes throws a baseball — last summer, it was a half-mile per hour faster than any starter in the game’s century-and-a-half-long history — he thinks slowly, methodically. There are things he wants to do — real, substantive things. He seeks silence because in it he finds clarity. About how to extract the very best from his gilded right arm — but also about who he is and who he aspires to be.
“The times that I’ll figure stuff out is when I’m just sitting and not doing anything,” Skenes says. “I’ll figure some stuff out, on the mound or talking to people, but there will be times where I’m just sitting or lying in bed or something like that. Silence. And there’s nothing else to do but think. I wonder — and I’m not comparing myself to him by any stretch — but Newton discovered gravity because he was sitting under a tree and an apple fell. You figure stuff out because you’re sitting in silence. Compartmentalizing stuff, thinking about the game, doing a debrief of myself. That’s how I’ll get pitch grips. Just sitting around and imagining the feel of the baseball and like, oh, I’m going to try that. It works or it doesn’t work. If you do that enough, you’re going to figure stuff out.”
The irony of this exercise is that the more Skenes figures out on the mound, the shriller his world will get. As Skenes embarks on his first full season in MLB, he’s learning what comes with the commodification of an athlete. Alongside the demand for peak performance come requests for his time and his autograph, pictures taken by gawking fans and GQ photographers. He is pitcher and pitchman. His teammates sometimes wonder whether it’s too much too soon — when they’re not needling him for it.
“You guys doing an interview about our savior?” one said this spring as a reporter queried two others about Skenes. They were, in fact, though the 22-year-old Skenes is far more than just the player Pittsburgh is praying can liberate its woebegone baseball franchise from the dregs of the sport. He is a generational pitcher for a generation that doesn’t pitch like all the previous ones — but he is also still just a kid trying to navigate his way through a universe not built for him. He is happy to forgo the convenience of an apartment adjacent to the stadium for a soundless drive to the suburbs that feels almost meditative. He can ponder the questions he would like to answer — not the ones proffered by others. For instance: In this life so antithetical to the one he thought he would be living, who, exactly, is he?
“It’s funny,” Skenes says. “When you start thinking about stuff like this, you find that you don’t know a whole lot more than you thought while also learning about yourself. I know myself a lot better — and, in some ways, a lot less.”
IN JANUARY 2023 — six months after he’d left the only place he ever wanted to go, seven months before he started a career he never imagined he’d have — Skenes was chatting with LSU baseball coach Wes Johnson about the year ahead. The previous summer, he had transferred to the SEC power from the Air Force Academy, where he had played catcher and pitched. For all of Skenes’ power as a hitter, Johnson wasn’t interested in developing another Shohei Ohtani. This was big-time college baseball, and after a fall semester that for Skenes consisted of online courses and eight or nine hours a day of training for baseball, Johnson, the former pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, understood before most the implications of Skenes’ move.
“For the next two to three years, you will have a new normal every single day,” Johnson said.
Growing up, there were no conversations about the pressures of major league stardom in Skenes’ household. His father, Craig, was a biochemistry major who works in the eye medication industry and topped out in JV baseball. His mother, Karen, teaches AP chemistry and was in the marching band. Skenes was not allowed to touch a baseball after school until he finished his homework.
“It was never the big leagues really,” Skenes says. “It was ‘Be a good person, do your homework, go to church’ and all that. There’s nothing in my family that says that, yeah, this guy was born to be a big leaguer.”
Skenes’ parents told him to find what he loved and work really hard at it, which had led him to the Air Force. Skenes found comfort in the academy’s structure and rigor; the academy embodied his values of discipline and routine and responsibility. Skenes wanted to fly fighter jets and took deep pride in being an airman. That’s why Skenes cried when he decided, at the behest of his coaches, to leave for LSU after his sophomore year: He’d found what he’d loved and worked really hard at it and gotten it, only for something else to find him and cajole him away.
A big SEC school didn’t feel like Skenes’ speed — not the random public approaches, not the fanfare, not the Geaux Tigers of it all — but he understood why he needed to be there. He is a nerd who happened to stand 6-foot-6, weigh 260 pounds and throw a baseball with more skill than anyone in the country, and to turtle from that would be wasteful. The Air Force years had prepared him for the transition, and he ingratiated himself in Baton Rouge with a Sahara-dry sense of humor. Skenes would regularly walk around the clubhouse, stop at each teammate’s locker and rib him: “I worked harder than you today.” It was in jest, but it was also the truth, and when teammate Cade Beloso recounted the practice to ESPN’s broadcast team during LSU’s run to a College World Series title in 2023, Skenes recalls, “I’m like, dude, everybody thinks I’m a douche now. So there is still some of that. I still am that way, just not with everybody.”
He grappled with his identity at LSU, a California kid dropped into the bayou and forced to find his way. Meeting Livvy Dunne only compounded his need to adapt. An LSU gymnast with an innate talent for making social media content that bewitched Gen Z, Dunne was introduced to Skenes by mutual friends and she was immediately smitten. If LSU raised a magnifying glass over Skenes’ life and career — he’d gone from a fringe first-round pick to the top of draft boards on the strength of a junior season in which he struck out 209 in 122⅔ innings — Dunne brought the Hubble telescope. He didn’t even have Instagram or TikTok on his phone.
“I’m not perfect by any means, but I think that you can get yourself in trouble really quickly now because if you do anything, someone’s filming it,” Skenes says. “It takes a whole lot more energy to go out anywhere and pretend to be someone else than it does to go out and just be yourself. If being yourself doesn’t get you in trouble, then great. So that’s kind of the life that I think I was geared to live just based on the whole path coming up.
“I don’t think anything’s really changed. When I look at famous people or celebrities, I see a lot of the time people that do whatever they can because they think they can do whatever they can. Why is that? We’re all people. What has gotten you there? What has gotten you to being famous, to being a movie star? Whatever it is, you’re very good at what you do. So why change? I respect the people that don’t change a whole lot more than the other people that are, ‘Hey, I’m a celebrity.'”
Going with the first overall pick tested his willingness to stand by that ethos. Every pitch he threw invited more eyeballs, his rapid ascent to Pittsburgh an inevitability. The Pirates are a proud franchise hamstrung by an owner, Bob Nutting, fundamentally opposed to using his wealth to bridge the game’s inherent inequity. Skenes was their golden ticket, the best pitching prospect in more than a decade, and the excitement for his arrival at LSU paled compared to what greeted him May 11, when the Pirates summoned him to the big leagues. He was Pittsburgh’s, yes, but everyone in the baseball ecosystem wanted a piece of Skenes.
Over the next two months and 11 starts, he so thoroughly dominated hitters that he earned the start for the National League in the All-Star Game. His only inning included showdowns with Juan Soto (a seven-pitch walk that ended on a 100 mph fastball painted on the inside corner but not called a strike) and Aaron Judge (a first-pitch groundout on a 99 mph challenge fastball). He rushed home to spend the rest of the break with Dunne and settle back into a life he was learning to enjoy.
Skenes’ first season could not have gone much better. He threw 133 innings, struck out more than five hitters for every one he walked and posted a 1.96 ERA. The last rookie to start at least 20 games with a sub-2.00 ERA was Scott Perry in 1918, the tail end of the dead ball era. When Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. announced Skenes as NL Rookie of the Year winner, Dunne broke into a wide smile and rejoiced as Skenes sat stone-faced before mustering a toothless grin. Memelords pounced instantaneously and Skenes was immortalized as the picture of utter disinterest.
Which is fine by him. He was proud, but pride can manifest itself in manifold ways, and if LSU and his first big league season taught Skenes anything, it’s that he is not beholden to external whims and expectations. He’s going to figure out who he is his way. And that starts with seeking out the people whose opinions do matter to him.
IN THE FIRST inning of a July game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Skenes left the Pirates’ dugout and beelined into the bowels of Chase Field. Randy Johnson had just been inducted as an inaugural member of the Diamondbacks Hall of Fame, and Skenes was not going to miss the opportunity to shake his hand and pick his brain.
For someone as polished and proficient as Skenes, he remains fundamentally curious. However exceptional his aptitude to pitch might be, he’s still enough of a neophyte that he’s got oodles to absorb, and he’s humble enough to know what he doesn’t know. Skenes is not shy about trying to learn, and over the past year he has sought advice from a wide array of players whose careers he would love to emulate.
Johnson’s would have ended 20 years earlier than his 2009 retirement had he not done the same. Like Skenes, he was an otherworldly talent. Unlike Skenes, he needed almost a decade to tame it. Johnson didn’t find success until Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton, as well as pitching guru Tom House, advised him. So he was glad to talk with Skenes and try to offer a sliver of the assistance he’d been afforded. First, though, he had a question.
“It all depends on what you’re looking for,” Johnson said. “Are you looking for a good game, a good season or a good career?”
Skenes’ answer was a no-brainer: a good career. The no-selling of his Rookie of the Year win is a perfect example. It’s an award. It’s nice. It’s also the reflection of a single great season among the many more he anticipates having. For Skenes, the goal is game-to-game excellence and longevity, the hallmarks of true greatness. Johnson fears that the modern usage of starting pitchers inhibits players’ ability to marry the two.
Over the past 25 years, the number of 100-plus-pitch games in MLB has dipped from 2,391 to 635 last season. There were 1,297 starts of 110 or more pitches in 2000 and 33 last year. Skenes — and Johnson — believe some of today’s starting pitchers are capable of more. For a pitcher like Skenes to be limited by strictures based more in fear of injury than data that supports their implementation gnaws at Johnson, who regularly ran up high pitch counts before retiring at 46.
The second a career begins, Johnson told Skenes, it is marching toward its end, and the truly special players use the time in between to defy expectations and limitations. If Skenes is as good as everyone believes — “He’s where I’m at six or seven years after I found my mechanics,” Johnson says — then he will either convince the Pirates to remove the restrictor plate or eventually find a team that will. Which is why Johnson’s ultimate advice to him was simple: “This is your career.”
“It will be a mental mission for him,” Johnson says. “I understood throughout the course of my career that if I can talk myself through a game, I will realize my mission. I trained myself to put me in those positions for success, get me through that. I know the pitchers can do these things I talk about, but they’re not allowed to. And that, to me, is mind-boggling. It makes no sense to me. You’re not going to see a pitcher grow mentally or physically if you take him out of situations.”
Longevity was on the mind of another subject from whom Skenes sought advice. When the Pirates went to New York last year, Skenes met with Gerrit Cole in the outfield at Yankee Stadium. Cole is perhaps the best modern analog for Skenes: born and raised in Southern California, big-bodied hard thrower. Both went to college and then were drafted No. 1 by the Pirates; both are thoughtful, diligent, dedicated. Amid the de-emphasis of starting pitching, Cole blossomed into the exception, a head-of-the-rotation stalwart on a Hall of Fame track who made at least 30 starts in seven seasons before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery this spring.
Unlike Johnson, who is now 61, Cole speaks the language of a modern pitcher. He is fluent in Trackman data, the benefit of good sleep habits and the influence diet can have on success.
“In the true pursuit of maximum human performance, these tools are providing an avenue for people to achieve that quicker,” Cole said earlier this month. “With the avenue out there to reach those maximum potentials quicker, the industry demands — the teams demand — almost a higher level of performance and, to a certain extent, an unsustainable level of performance. We’ve used the technology to maximize human performance. We haven’t used the technology quite well enough to maximize human sustainability.”
Cole is acutely aware of this. After more than 2,000 innings and 339 career starts, his right elbow blew out during spring training and will sideline him for the remainder of 2025. The correlation between fastball velocity and higher risk of arm injuries is established to the point that most in the industry regard it as causative. Johnson was the exception, not the rule, and Skenes knows enough math to know the fool’s errand of banking on outlier outcomes.
“My focus is on volume and durability,” Cole continued. “In order to give myself a chance to pitch for a long time to pitch for championship-contending teams, I have to be healthy. There’s a lot of incentives — as a competitor, financial — to make durability and sustainability the main goal.
“Skenes has the foundation to match that — and exceed it. He’s got more horsepower than me. He’s asking better questions early — questions about diet and sleep. He’s asking questions about mechanics. He’s tracking his throws. He has his own process with people that he surrounds himself with that are not only looking out for his performance right now but his performance long term. That’s important for guys to have advocates in their corner, not looking out just for this year. It’s really tough to find the right people.”
With Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer on the precipice of retirement, and Cole and Zack Wheeler in their mid-30s, a baton-passing is afoot. Because Skenes is best positioned to be the one grabbing it, Cole says, his advice runs the gamut. They spoke about pitching game theory, and Cole pointed out that the approach of Verlander, with whom he was teammates in Houston, runs counter to the max-effort philosophies espoused by starters who know that regardless of their ability to go deep into games, they’re not throwing much more than 100 pitches anyway.
Piece by piece, Skenes learns from those who have been what he intends to be. Pitchers, old and young, fill in some blanks, but he looks beyond the players who share his craft, too. He plans to spend more time talking with Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks’ star outfielder he met on a Zoom call for a rookie immersion program, and ask him: “What do you have that I need?” He reads books like “Relentless” and “Winning” by Michael Jordan’s longtime trainer, Tim Grover, and “Talent Is Overrated,” which has particular appeal for someone whose talent didn’t manage to attract draft interest from a single team out of high school despite playing in arguably the most talent-rich area in America.
“I don’t know if I’m going to get anything out of talking to anybody,” Skenes says, but at the same time he sees no harm in asking. Considering how much the game asks him to give, he’s owed a rebalancing.
THE FIRST TIME Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt met Skenes, he introduced himself with a proposition: “I’m gonna nominate you for the union board.”
The executive subcommittee of the Major League Baseball Players Association consists of eight players who help guide the union, particularly during collective bargaining. And with the current basic agreement set to expire following the 2026 season, labor discord has left people across the sport fearful of an extended work stoppage. The board is expected to wield even more power in the next round of negotiations, so the eight members are paramount in helping shape the game’s future.
Bassitt knew Skenes by reputation: that he was thoughtful, even-tempered, judicious — the kind of guy whose poker face on the mound would translate to a board room. He knows, too, the history of the union, that it’s at its strongest when the game’s most influential players serve as voices during the bargaining process. With the encouragement of veteran starter Nick Pivetta and former executive board head Andrew Miller, Skenes accepted his nomination and became the youngest player ever selected to the executive subcommittee.
“If we’re thinking about the future of the game,” Skenes says, “I think it’d be stupid to not have someone at least my age in there.”
Labor work is taxing. The game’s best players today often avoid the hassle. It did not have to be Skenes. But he harkened back to his years at the Air Force Academy in which cadets are taught the PITO model of leadership: personal, interpersonal, team and organization. In their first year, they focus on personal responsibility. Year 2 calls for them to take responsibility for another cadet. Skenes left before experiencing of team and organizational leadership at the academy, but the principles he learned apply enough that he felt a duty to serve as a voice for more than 1,200 other big leaguers, even if his service time pales compared to many of theirs.
The union and its rank and file are far from the only ones in the baseball world leaning on Skenes. MLB has struggled for years to create stars, and Skenes entered the big leagues with a Q score higher than 99% of players. Dunne’s presence alone invites a younger generation reared on the idea that baseball is boring to reconsider. Going forward, every marketing campaign MLB launches is almost guaranteed to include four players. One plays in Los Angeles (Ohtani). Two are in New York (Judge and Soto). The fourth resides in Pittsburgh.
More than anyone, the Pirates and their forlorn fan base regard Skenes as the fulcrum of their rebirth. They last won a division championship in 1992, when Barry Bonds still wore black and yellow. Their most recent playoff appearance was 2015, the last of three consecutive seasons with a wild-card spot (and losing the single game) when Cole was pitching for the franchise. Since then, they’ve finished fourth or fifth in the National League Central the past eight years and currently occupy the basement.
Nutting’s frugality hamstrings the Pirates perpetually. Never have they carried a nine-figure payroll. (This year’s on Opening Day: $91.3 million.) Since he bought the team in 2007, it has been in the bottom five 14 of 18 seasons. The Pirates’ revenue, according to Forbes, is almost identical to that of the Arizona Diamondbacks (2025 Opening Day payroll: $188.5 million), Minnesota Twins ($147.4 million), Kansas City Royals ($131.6 million), Washington Nationals ($115.6 million) and Cincinnati Reds ($114.5 million). Other owners privately peg Nutting as among the game’s worst.
Which only reinforces the fear among Pirates fans that Skenes is bound to follow Cole out the door via trade within a few years of his debut, lest the team lose him following the 2029 season to free agency. Rooting for the Pirates is among the cruelest fates in sports, with the combination of unserious owner and revenue disparities leaving general manager Ben Cherington to crank up a player-development machine in hopes of competing. Their free agent signings this winter were longtime Pirate Andrew McCutchen, left-hander Andrew Heaney, outfielder Tommy Pham, second baseman Adam Frazier and left-handed relievers Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza, all on one-year deals totaling $19.95 million. The last multiyear free agent contract Nutting handed out was to Ivan Nova in 2016.
“We’re going to create it from within the locker room, and it’s not going to be an ownership thing,” Skenes says. “Having a group of fans that are putting some pressure on the ownership and Ben and all that — it’s not a bad thing, but we have to go out there and do it. I kind of feel like we owe it to the city.”
Skenes had never been to Pittsburgh before he was drafted. “I do love it,” he said, and those who know him confirm Skenes’ sincerity. He wants nothing more at this point in his career than for his roommate and close friend Jared Jones, who’s on the injured list with elbow issues, to get healthy, and for Bubba Chandler, the Triple-A right-hander who’s topping out at 102 mph, to arrive, and for the Pirates’ farm system to churn out position players as regularly as it does pitchers. A couple more bats, a few relief arms, a free agent signing that’s more than a short-term plug, and you can squint and see a contender.
So much is out of Skenes’ control, though. All he can do is be the best version of himself. And bit by bit, he’s figuring out what that looks like.
SKENES IS ALWAYS looking for new ways to occupy himself when he’s away from the mound. In the back of his truck lays a compound bow. He shot it all of four times before abandoning it. In his bedroom sits a guitar gathering dust, $200 down the drain. He’s getting into golf these days, but he’s not sure it’s going to last.
“I get bored easily,” Skenes says. “I had a coach tell me that, and I was like, ‘I don’t think so. I think you’re wrong.’ And I’ve been thinking about that lately, and I think he’s right, because I’ve tried plenty of different hobbies and none of them have stuck.”
Similarly, Skenes wonders if the places his mind goes during his periods of silence are a function of boredom with baseball. “Not in a bad way,” he clarifies, but in the manner that behooves a player — that “there’s always something to be better at.”
In his most recent start Monday — a typical Skenes outing in which he allowed one earned run, struck out six and didn’t walk anyone over six innings — he threw six pitches: four-seam fastball, splinker, slider, sweeper, changeup, and curveball and splinker, the hybrid sinker-splitter he throws in the mid-90s to devastating effect. He toyed around with a cutter and two-seam fastball during spring training and could break them out at any moment. He waited until the fourth or fifth week of his season at LSU to unleash his curveball.
“I absolutely don’t believe that just because it’s the season, all right, this is what you got,” he says. “There’s no difference between spring training and the regular season in terms of getting better every day.”
This is his career, Skenes says, echoing Johnson, and he’s learning that he must wrangle control of it. He needs to chat with others who are what he wants to be, and he needs to find the silence to find himself, and he needs to set stratospheric expectations. Of all the aphorisms Skenes repeats, his favorite might be one he read in a book: “How you do anything is how you do everything.”
“There’s no option to not do the work that I need to do,” Skenes says. “… If I didn’t want to get in the cold tub a couple years ago or whatever it is, I wouldn’t. Now I do know whether I want to do it or not, it’s a nonnegotiable.”
If he keeps doing the work, Skenes believes, everything is there for the taking. The wins will come, and the success will follow, and the search for advice will give way to the dispensing of it. In the same way his training at the Air Force Academy readied him to handle the pressure cooker at LSU, it’s likewise destined to propel him into a role as leader and elder statesman in baseball.
For now, though, Skenes is trying to focus on today, tomorrow, this week. Even if the clock on his career is ticking, the hour hand has barely moved, and he doesn’t want this charmed life to fly by without taking the time to appreciate it. Earlier this spring, Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin asked Skenes: “What motivates you?”
Skenes considered the question and gave variations on the same answer: winning and getting better every day. Winning a baseball game is in his hands once every fifth day. But those are not the only wins within his control. Hard work is a win. Learning is a win. Leading is a win. Growing is a win. And in a life that’s only getting louder and faster and more demanding, silence is the sort of win that will help remind him who he is.
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