No repeat division winners? A 64-homer season!? Our hottest hot takes two weeks into the MLB season
We are two weeks into the 2023 MLB season, and most teams have played a dozen games of their 162-game schedule. In other words, it’s early. Perhaps too early to glean a whole lot from what has happened so far. But what’s the fun in that?
We asked our MLB experts to go all-in on what they’ve seen by making a prediction based on this small sample size. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted, with two conditions: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they truly believe could happen this season.
Some of our predictors went really wild, while others chose to play it safe, so we took the liberty of ranking their choices from mild to spicy. Here is what they chose.
Born to be mild
AJ Mass: San Francisco will be the even-steven Giants
Forget the very good Tampa Bay Rays, off to an 11-0 start, and the very bad Oakland Athletics, already in last place and on their way to a 100-loss campaign. My hot take is that the San Francisco Giants will be the most feast and famine team in all of baseball. They’re going to have their very good days. They’re going to have their very bad days. But by the time we get to October, they’ll be exactly 81-81. And here’s where it gets interesting: They’ll lead the league both in the number of times they are shut out and the number of times they score in double digits.
Why it’s mild: This prediction is oddly specific, but that doesn’t make it all that bold. It’s a long season — and we all have our good days and our bad days. Our preseason projections had the Giants at 85 wins, so predicting them to finish four wins off, with an equal number of really good and really bad moments, isn’t going all that far out on a limb.
Joon Lee: A last-place finish in Boston?
Adam Duvall‘s broken wrist revealed the wobbly foundation of the Boston Red Sox‘s roster. To replace Duvall, Boston called up Bobby Dalbec, who has been trying to add shortstop and third base to his repertoire. The injury is pushing Boston to play Enrique Hernandez — who started the season at shortstop — in the outfield, where he has led the league in errors while filling in for the injured Trevor Story.
Boston already needed everything to go right this season to have a shot at the playoffs — but one injury has already shaken the Red Sox’s roster to its core.
Why it’s mild: To understand why we aren’t exactly melting from the heat of this take, one needs to look no further than the 2022 American League East standings, where you will find the Boston Red Sox all the way at the bottom. Combine what we saw on the field last year, the lack of a splashy offseason addition and a slow start this season, and it might actually be bolder to predict the Red Sox will finish anywhere other than the basement of a loaded division.
It’s not that you aren’t bold; others are just bolder
Brad Doolittle: The Brewers will make the playoffs — and the Dodgers won’t
I’m going to refrain from pointing out how the concept of hot takes makes rational people say things that they don’t actually mean. Instead, I will just point out that in 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a wider range of possibilities than they have had at any time in the past decade or longer. I also think the Milwaukee Brewers are going to make the playoffs. That is not a hot take. If the Brewers invade what felt like a largely set National League playoff field, someone will miss out. The hot take part of my otherwise rational mind tells me that team will be the Dodgers.
Why it’s (mostly) mild: OK, we’re going to refrain from pointing out that the concept of this exercise is to bring out your inner hot taker to tell us what you really mean but haven’t yet said. Instead, we will just point out that you spent the first half of your allotted hot take window explaining why the Brewers making the playoffs isn’t a hot take. Then right there at the end, you heat up and drop some boldness on us. We’ll give you some points for predicting the Dodgers’ playoff streak will end, but your hot take delivery is a work in progress, at best.
Eric Karabell: Rookies will carry the Dodgers to the top of the NL West
The Dodgers will have at least three of the top five in NL Rookie of the Year voting. James Outman already should be their regular center fielder, a potential 20-homer, 20-steal option with plate discipline. Second baseman Miguel Vargas is a walk magnet with power. Down on the farm, right-handers Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller are future aces; both are already better than No. 5 starter Noah Syndergaard, and who knows if Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin can stay healthy for six months. The Dodgers will win the NL West again, led by rookies in the lineup and rotation.
Why it’s (mostly) mild: This take is actually hotter than it looks on the surface. First, it’s important to point out that this is starting to feel like a loaded rookie class in the National League. Corbin Carroll, Jordan Walker, Kodai Senga and Garrett Mitchell have all shown why they are threats to win the award this year alongside the first two Dodgers you mentioned. Then you go ahead and add a third Dodger, who isn’t in the majors yet, as a potential breakout name to watch — and casually put L.A. ahead of San Diego in the NL West. Nailed the dismount.
Now we’re heating up
Tim Keown: The 2023 Athletics just might be the worst team … ever
It gives me no pleasure to report that the Oakland Athletics — who currently have a 3-9 record with an OPS of .655 and an ERA of 7.54 — have all the pieces in place to challenge the 1962 New York Mets for most losses in a 162-game season. The Mets, in their first season, lost 120, and it remains to be seen if the A’s can conjure the same lovable loser mythology that allowed those Mets to achieve a certain legendary status in the game’s history. More likely, Oakland’s unique combination of a spin-the-wheel roster and apathetic ownership will go down as more sad than playful.
Why it’s got some heat: Yes, the A’s are 3-9, but we really don’t need the standings to tell us that this is not a good baseball team. You also weren’t quite willing to predict that they would become the biggest single-season losers of all time — just that they have a chance to challenge for the dubious mark. That said, any time you are willing to throw out a comparison to the 1962 Mets this early in the season, you have our attention.
Alden Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani will win the Cy Young, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and, of course, MVP
I will say this confidently without even looking it up: This has never been done before. And thinking this is anything less than the hottest take imaginable only speaks to how much of a unicorn Shohei Ohtani actually is. Still, it’s … realistic? Let’s break it down.
Ohtani already won a Silver Slugger in 2021, and Yordan Alvarez won it in the designated hitter category in 2022. It could come down to those two again this year. The Cy Young might be just as reachable, given that Ohtani finished fourth in the voting last year, he lines up to make more starts in 2023 (he’ll pitch with five days’ rest each time, as opposed to operating within a strict six-man rotation and often getting additional time between starts) and he continues to evolve as a pitcher. A Gold Glove? That might actually be his toughest award; it’s really hard to decipher this for pitchers due to the rarity of fielding opportunities at that position. But Ohtani certainly has the ability here too. If he earns all three, he’ll win the MVP unanimously, again, and sign for a billion dollars — or something like that.
Why it’s got some heat: This take is not quite as hot as it originally sounds — but that is more a product of Ohtani being really, really good than a fault of the hot taker. Predicting any player to unanimously win MVP honors in a league that could see Aaron Judge hit 60-plus home runs again is bold. Predicting that same player will be the Cy Young in his league is also bold. The trouble here is that Ohtani is so amazing that predicting him to win both is actually taking a favorite for each award.
Now, if Ohtani’s next contract is actually for one billion dollars, we’ll come back and crown this the spiciest take on the list.
Wait, is anything about the Rays really that bold right now?
0:37
Mad Dog pours cold water on Rays’ hot start
Chris “Mad Dog” Russo doesn’t see the Rays as a World Series contender despite their hot start this season.
Buster Olney: The Rays will go wire to wire in the AL East
I’ll take my first mulligan in the preseason predictions and say: The Tampa Bay Rays are going to go wire to wire and win the AL East. That doesn’t mean that the New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays will fade; those are two very good teams. But the first two weeks have revealed the Rays as a deep and dangerous team: Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena have developed into core stars, and they’re surrounded by an excellent cast of supporting players. History shows us it’s possible for teams to break away early, never to be caught: the 1984 Tigers, 1955 Dodgers and 1977 Dodgers are examples. The balanced schedule means fewer games against the AL East, which will help the Rays keep their early-season grip on first place.
Why it’s actually pretty hot: Just two weeks ago, our MLB experts made their predictions for the season — and only one of our 28 voters tabbed the Rays to win the AL East. Now that was bold. But being willing to go all-in on Tampa Bay’s fast start two weeks in is still pretty hot. This leaves us to wonder how many of the other 27 voters who didn’t pick the Rays would switch their pick if given the chance today.
Jeff Passan: Your 2023 AL Cy Young will be … Jeffrey Springs
Yes, I’m suggesting a 30-year-old who before last season had started two games in his major league career is primed to beat out Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom and Shohei Ohtani for the prize of best pitcher in the American League. A 30th-round draft pick on his third organization will be better than Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and even his own teammate Shane McClanahan. Why? Well, the one-word answer is: sweeper. Springs bullied his way into Tampa Bay’s rotation last year on the strength of exceptional fastball command and a gyro-spinning changeup that dies three-quarters of the way to the plate. But the emergence of a legitimately excellent breaking pitch — the sweeping slider he developed over the winter — has taken a good pitcher and made him great. In six starts between spring training and the regular season, Springs has thrown 27 shutout innings, struck out 43 and allowed only 16 baserunners. He’s still +2500 to win the Cy Young. Get in before the odds grow even shorter.
Why it’s actually pretty hot: OK, Rays or not, this is coming in hot. Be honest, readers: How many of you actually knew who Jeffrey Springs was two weeks ago? (How many of you knew who he was two minutes ago?) Now, how about those readers who live outside of the greater Tampa area? Not many, right? So predicting the Rays pitcher will go from relative obscurity to topping names like Cole, deGrom, Ohtani, Cease, Alek Manoah for the AL’s top pitching honor is a very spicy take.
We do have to wonder though: Is this simply a case of one Jeffrey going all-in for another?
Who turned up the heat?
Paul Hembekides: 230 hits for Luis Arraez
I know, 230 is a massive number; no hitter has gotten there since Ichiro Suzuki in 2007. But there are two reasons Arraez can pull it off: He leads the majors in contact rate (91%) since he entered the league in 2019 and will benefit from the abolition of the shift as much as anybody (.178 batting average on pulled ground balls and infield line drives from 2019 to 2022). Should he continue to bat leadoff for the Miami Marlins, pencil him in for 700 plate appearances and a run at a hit total we’ve not seen in 16 years.
Why it’s a very hot take: You had us at Ichiro. Any time the category is hits and the answer includes “nobody has done this since Ichiro,” you are probably talking about a pretty significant feat. In fact, here is the entire list of players to reach 230 hits in a single season since 2000: Ichiro (three times) and Darin Erstad (in 2000). Add in the fact that Arraez’s career high is just 173 hits and the heat just keeps rising on this take.
Jesse Rogers: None of last year’s six division winners will repeat
This is coming from someone who picked all 12 playoff teams to return to the postseason two weeks ago. In the AL, the Seattle Mariners or Texas Rangers will upend the Houston Astros. The Minnesota Twins or Chicago White Sox will beat out the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays … well, you get it.
In the NL, Milwaukee’s magic continues through 162, and the San Diego Padres — or even the Arizona Diamondbacks — win the NL West. The NL East is where this take gets toughest; I don’t love picking against the Atlanta Braves, but the Mets will get a boost when Justin Verlander returns.
Why it’s a very hot take: A little behind-the-scenes hot take truth: This take just missed making the cut for our final and boldest category. What you did here reminds us of a term you usually hear in Las Vegas: parlay. None of these predictions is all that bold alone, but when you keep stacking the teams that won’t repeat as division champs, it adds up to a very hot take.
So what kept it just shy of the tier every hot taker is striving to reach? Well, let’s use another term you often hear in Vegas: hedging. There are a lot of eithers and ors when you get around to telling us who actually will win these divisions. And for that reason, it falls just shy of the next two takes.
You sure you can handle this heat?
David Schoenfield: Aaron Judge hits 64 home runs and posts the first 11-WAR season since Barry Bonds in 2002
Home runs are up. Batting averages are up. Walks are way up as pitchers are perhaps struggling adjusting to the pitch clock. Oh, and Aaron Judge is off to a strong start with four home runs already. Last year, he hit one his first 13 games. Judge’s maturation as a hitter is now complete; don’t forget that he hit .311 last season, second in the American League. He has learned to take care of his body and has been healthy the past two seasons. We haven’t even gotten to the warmer weather of summer when the ball really starts flying. All rise for a new AL home run record for the second straight season.
Why this take is straight fire: Look, every take on this list is hot in some shape or form. So to make it into this elite tier, the hottest of hot takes, it takes something extra spicy — and this take certainly fits.
In fact, when this take arrived, another hot taker couldn’t help but comment, “Dave coming in with a flamethrower and propane tank.” And who are we to argue over something that drew that kind of reaction. Sure, we could pick nits that the first half of this prediction is actually calling for Judge to hit just two more home runs than he did last season, which is not all that bold. But you then went ahead and doubled down with a WAR total that Barry Bonds is the only position player to reach this century and left us with no choice but to respect the heat.
Tristan Cockcroft: Rangers will be the AL West’s last team standing this October
They play in a competitive division in which three other teams were generally more popular preseason playoff picks; indeed, the Rangers were regarded more of a hey-maybe-in-2024 contender. But this team is built strongly enough to win now — and make serious noise during the postseason. Sure, a little luck is needed on the injury front (hello, Jacob deGrom), but piling up April and May wins will have a way of coaxing the Rangers’ big-spending, going-for-it-soon owner to dive right in. And since they possess organizational prospect depth that a mere handful of teams can rival, this is the team that shocks the world by trading for Shohei Ohtani at the deadline, the final puzzle player the Rangers need to make their serious October push. Just like last October, we’ll again be talking up the managerial prowess of an ex-Giants skipper.
Why this take is straight fire: When this take came in, we passed it around like, well, a hot potato, because we couldn’t handle the heat. One response summed it up best: “It’s like a Trojan horse. It’s bold … then gets super-specific bold.”
If you had just picked the Rangers to be the last AL West team standing, ahead of the defending champion Astros and the Shohei Ohtani/Mike Trout-led Angels, that alone would have been bold. But the way you just snuck in, “Oh, by the way, they’ll also trade for Ohtani — from across the same division, mind you,” without skipping a beat, that is the stuff of hot take legend. Now we just have to wait about 150 more games to see if any of this comes true.
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Kiley McDaniel
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Kiley McDaniel
ESPN MLB Insider
- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
The July 31 MLB trade deadline is just days away, so it’s time for a deadline week update to our top 50 trade candidates ranking.
Major League Baseball’s trade market is ever evolving, and to keep you updated, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have put together a list of potential trade candidates based on players’ performance — and that of the teams that could be involved in potential deals.
This is the most up-to-date accounting of where MLB’s trade market stands. While some of the players on the list are unlikely to be dealt, they’re at least being discussed in potential deals. Others might be making the list for the first time this week as their team’s fortunes have changed.
Note: Players ranked by value for their new team if traded, not likelihood of being dealt.
Chance of trade: 90%
Suarez is in a contract year and playing like one of the best players in baseball. Only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge have more home runs than his 33. Despite turning 34 years old before the trade deadline, Suarez is sitting near career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). His fielding metrics have declined in recent years, but he’s still an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t offload all their free agents to be, Suarez could move because they’ve got Jordan Lawlar raking in Triple-A and primed to take over at third.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
Chance of trade: 10%
Ryan is one of the best pitchers in baseball, with a mix of stuff and pitchability, and teams in search of long-term fits dream of the possibility the Twins will actually move him. That is unlikely, but this is deadline season, so there is always the chance a team surveys the market, finds nothing to its liking and overpays. The Twins don’t necessarily want to move Ryan; they are more in listening mode on nearly everyone that occupies a roster spot — and with Ryan not a free agent until after the 2027 season, teams are trying, with little success thus far, to pry him away.
Best fits: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 10%
While the general sense is that Gore won’t go anywhere, the Nationals are, at the very least, listening — and that warrants a spot atop the list regardless of the minimal likelihood interim general manager Mike DeBartolo deals him. The prospect of Gore moving is tempting enough to want to engage: 144 strikeouts in 117⅔ innings with enough control that he’s walking a career-low 3.4 per nine innings. Even if stuff-plus models aren’t crazy for Gore, he gets elite swing-and-miss and is the sort of pitcher that could tempt teams to overpay.
Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, Baltimore, Houston, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 25%
Another late entry to the proceedings, Cease is throwing as hard as he did in his prime and is here more as a function of the Padres not having payroll flexibility or a deep minor league system than some sort of desire to deal him. As an impending free agent, he wouldn’t bring back nearly the haul of Ryan or Gore. And there are genuine questions about whether the holes the Padres would try to fill by moving Cease would only be exacerbated on the starting-pitching side were he to go. Regardless, they’re at the very least listening, and with Cincinnati and San Francisco breathing down their necks for the final NL wild-card slot, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could try to get creative in upgrading his roster.
Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 10%
An All-Star the last two years and Gold Glove winner in all three of his previous big league seasons, Kwan is a do-everything left fielder with elite bat-to-ball skills and two years of club control after 2025. Cleveland doesn’t want to deal him, but with a dearth of available bats, the Guardians at very least will listen to see if teams are willing to blow them away with offers.
Best fits: Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers
Chance of trade: 25%
Duran had a huge breakout season in 2024, posting the seventh-best fWAR in the majors at 6.8. He overperformed his underlying metrics, though — i.e. had some lucky outcomes — and those metrics have regressed a bit this year as has his luck. Duran’s projected to finish the season with around 3.0 WAR, which is more in line with how the league sees him. With Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox have the outfield depth to consider moving Duran for controllable, top-end pitching.
Best fits: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia
7. Jhoan Duran, RP, Minnesota Twins
Chance of trade: 30%
Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his nasty stuff, headlined by a fastball that averages 100.4 mph and a splinker that sits 97.6 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so he’d demand a big trade package.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
Chance of trade: 20%
Clase was nearly unhittable last season, but his numbers have regressed this year. He has issued more walks and gotten fewer ground balls while allowing more damage on his cutter that averages 99 mph — in part due to more center-cut locations. Under contract for less than $30 million through 2028, he would bring a big return to Cleveland.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
9. Cade Smith, RP, Cleveland Guardians
Chance of trade: 20%
Smith has been the best reliever in baseball by WAR since the beginning of the 2024 season, and with more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings this year, he is the solution to many teams’ late-inning woes. With four more years of control, he’s also going to be prohibitively expensive for most teams, making a deal difficult to come by.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
10. Griffin Jax, RP, Minnesota Twins
Chance of trade: 30%
Despite a 3.92 ERA that says otherwise, Jax has been one of the top relievers in baseball this season — the best by xFIP and toward the top in other similar metrics. Over the last two seasons, he’s second in the sport behind Cade Smith in reliever WAR. Only Fernando Cruz and Mason Miller have a better strikeout rate than Jax’s 14.37 per nine, and his sweeper-heavy arsenal induces as much swing-and-miss as anyone.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
11. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 70%
Kelly doesn’t have big raw stuff, posting the second-lowest average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) among pitchers with 125 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and offspeed stuff. He was a stalwart in the Diamondbacks’ run to the 2023 World Series, striking out 28 in 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA.
Best fits: Toronto, Boston, Houston, Chicago Cubs
Chance of trade: 65%
Not only is Keller in the midst of a career-best season with a 3.53 ERA, he’s under contract for another three years at a very reasonable $55.7 million. The Pirates need bats, and moving Keller is the likeliest way to fill that void. Teams could be scared off slightly by the quality of contact against him — his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have spiked while his strikeouts are down — but in an environment with little pitching, Keller is nevertheless desirable.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, Toronto, Houston
Chance of trade: 30%
All the potential the Marlins have seen in the 27-year-old right-hander is finally coming into focus this season. While Cabrera’s 97 mph fastball gets hitters’ attention, it’s his curveball and slider that are doing most of the work. And with a changeup that in years past has been his best pitch, the cost to acquire Cabrera will be high because of his full arsenal and three more years of club control.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees
Chance of trade: 50%
Alcantara was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2022, winning the NL Cy Young unanimously. He was more solid than spectacular in 2023 and missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He has been tinkering this season to try to get his pitch mix and locations right in hopes of regaining his former glory. His 6.66 ERA is frightening, and with the Marlins still valuing him as a top starter, they could hold onto him until the winter, when teams like the Orioles would be more inclined to acquire him and the final two years of his contract.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Boston, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore
15. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 70%
Gallen was excellent for the last three seasons but now, in a contract year, is posting career-worst numbers in almost every category. His stuff looks pretty similar, but he’s allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. That said, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is back to normal in his last six starts, at 35-to-6, despite a 6.55 ERA in that span.
Best fits: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs
16. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Chance of trade: 85%
O’Hearn is having an out-of-nowhere career year, with an OPS+ of 132 (and he’s been unlucky with ball-in-play luck, to boot) along with being on pace for a career high in homers. He doesn’t face lefty pitchers much at all and his splits suggest that he shouldn’t.
Best fits: Houston, Boston, San Francisco, Texas
17. David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chance of trade: 70%
In a market replete with relief options, the 30-year-old Bednar brings high-end performance without quite the price tag of his peers. His swing-and-miss stuff has been elite since his return from Triple-A, and he has more than salvaged his trade value: Over his last 23 outings, Bednar has struck out 29, walked five and posted a 0.00 ERA.
Best fits: Detroit, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Seattle
Chance of trade: 80%
Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year, but he has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are pretty similar, but the main difference is his fastball is getting hit hard — with one byproduct being his spiking home run rate.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, New York Mets, Seattle
Chance of trade: 20%
Fairbanks raised his slot a bit this year, and now his 97.3-mph fastball has more cutting action while his slurvy slider has more depth with both pitches playing a notch better than they did last season. He’s got a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should wind up around the $10 million range. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes and bullpen injuries have cut into the likelihood Fairbanks moves.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto, Texas
20. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Chance of trade: 50%
A late entrant into the trade market, Bieber still hasn’t thrown a big league pitch this season and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. With his fastball up to 94 mph and his slider looking like its old sharp self, though, he’s generating plenty of interest and could be one of the bigger names moved at the deadline.
Best fits: San Diego, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, Toronto
Chance of trade: 60%
Ward comes with an additional year of team control after this season and he’s having a strong 2025 campaign, just one homer away from last year’s career high total of 25 — and in 52 fewer games.
Best fits: Cincinnati, San Diego, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 50%
Robert has been extremely unlucky with ball-in-play results this season, but that has begun to turn around recently. He remains a strong defender and baserunner, with a career-high 24 steals already. But the slashline is unsightly, and his trade value has cratered over the last two seasons. He’s got a pair of $20 million-a-year club options that the acquiring team will be hesitant to exercise absent a turnaround. Finding a match with a team willing to pay more for Robert’s upside than his productivity could be challenging.
Best fits: San Diego, Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, San Francisco
23. Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of trade: 20%
Arenado’s strikeout rate is around his career best and he’s still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He’s still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.
Best fits: Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle
Chance of trade: 70%
Ozuna is a stone-cold DH, playing two games in the field in 2023 as his last regular-season experience defensively. He’s also in a contract year, but his power numbers are down a notch from his standout .302 average and 39-homer performance last season. His on-base percentage remains among the highest of potential trade candidates. If anyone is moving from Atlanta, he’s the likeliest candidate, with free agency beckoning.
Best fits: San Diego, Seattle, Texas, Detroit, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 50%
Garcia averaged 30 homers in 2021-24, but he’s fallen off since his 2023 career year. It’s worth noting that per xwOBA, he’s been the 13th-most unlucky hitter in the big leagues this year. He also has another year of team control, so some teams could see a buy-low opportunity.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco
26. Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Chance of trade: 15%
The No. 10 pick from the 2020 draft transitioned to relief this season and has found similar success to other highly-drafted college lefties, including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller and Drew Pomeranz. He comes with three more years of control after this season and his velo is up 1.7 mph in the new role, so this might be where he fits long term — and he could fetch a hefty return. Some teams still see Detmers as a starter.
Best fits: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Toronto
Chance of trade: 90%
Following a dreadful start to the season, Morton found his curveball and has righted himself. Between his stuff and playoff experience, he has leapt up teams’ boards as a true target and almost certainly will move before the deadline.
Best fits: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto
28. Adrian Houser, SP, Chicago White Sox
Chance of trade: 90%
Houser’s resurgence is a success story for the White Sox. He opted out of a minor league deal with Texas to sign with the White Sox in mid-May and has limited home runs to post a 2.10 ERA in nearly 70 innings. He’ll eat innings for sure, but some scouts see his stuff as good enough to warrant a spot in a postseason rotation.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto
Chance of trade: 80%
Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in a contract year who contributes in a number of ways, though he’s hitting only .217 and his defensive metrics have regressed to be below average in center. His walk rate and power numbers are up this season, making him a solid contributor on a contender.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Houston, New York Mets
30. Willi Castro, UT, Minnesota Twins
Castro has played six of the eight field positions this year and has been a solid, versatile utility type since a breakout season in 2023. He doesn’t offer eye-popping numbers or tools, but is around average at most things while playing all over the field on an everyday basis.
Nos. 31-57
31. Seth Halvorsen, RP, Colorado Rockies
32. Zack Littell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
33. Jeffrey Springs, SP, Athletics
34. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Miami Marlins
35. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
36. Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
37. JP Sears, SP, Athletics
38. Michael Soroka, SP, Washington Nationals
39. Tyler Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
40. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
41. Luis Severino, SP, Athletics
42. Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles
43. Pierce Johnson, RP, Atlanta Braves
44. Phil Maton, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
45. Steven Matz, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
46. Harrison Bader, CF, Minnesota Twins
47. Jake Bird, RP, Colorado Rockies
48. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
49. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
50. Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
51. Chris Paddack, SP, Minnesota Twins
52. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Atlanta Braves
53. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
54. Ramon Urias, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
55. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT, Pittsburgh Pirates
56. Luis Urias, 2B, Athletics
57. Shelby Miller, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Bradford Doolittle
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Ichiro Suzuki became the first Japanese-born player to be enshrined into the National Baseball Hall of Fame on Sunday, one of five new members of baseball’s hallowed institution.
After enduring the baseball tradition known as a rain delay, the five speeches went off without a hitch as the deluge subsided and the weather became hot and humid. Joining Suzuki were pitchers CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner, and sluggers Dick Allen and Dave Parker, both of whom were enshrined posthumously.
“For the third time, I am a rookie,” Suzuki said, delivering his comments in English despite his long preference for conducting his public appearances in Japanese with the aid of an interpreter.
For the American audience, this provided a rare glimpse into Suzuki’s playful side. Teammates long spoke of his sense of humor behind the closed doors of the clubhouse — something the public rarely saw — but it was on full display Sunday.
When Hall voting was announced, Suzuki fell one vote shy of becoming the second unanimous selection for the Hall. He thanked the writers for their support — with an exception.
“Three-thousand [career] hits or 262 hits in one season are achievements recognized by the writers,” Suzuki said. “Except, oh, one of you.”
After the laughter subsided, Suzuki mentioned the gracious comments he made when balloting results were announced, when he offered to invite the writer who didn’t vote for him home for dinner to learn his reasoning. Turns out, it’s too late.
“The offer to the one writer to have dinner at my home has now … expired!” Suzuki said.
Suzuki’s attention to detail and unmatched work ethic have continued into the present day, more than five years since he played his last big league game. That was central to his message Sunday, at least when he wasn’t landing a joke.
“If you consistently do the little things, there’s no limit to what you can achieve,” Suzuki said. “Look at me. I’m 5-11 and 170 pounds. When I came to America, many people said I was too skinny to compete with bigger major leaguers.”
After becoming one of the biggest stars in Japanese baseball, hitting .353 over nine seasons for the Orix BlueWave, Suzuki exploded on the scene as a 27-year-old rookie for the Seattle Mariners, batting .350 and winning the AL Rookie of the Year and MVP honors.
Chants of “Ichiro!” that once were omnipresent at Mariners games erupted from the crowd sprawled across the grounds of the complex while the all-time single-season hits leader (262 in 2004) posed with his plaque alongside commissioner Rob Manfred and Hall of Fame chairman Jane Forbes Clark.
Despite his late start in MLB, Suzuki finished with 3,089 hits in the majors and 4,367 including his time in Japan. Suzuki listed some of his feats, such as the hit total, and his 10 Gold Gloves.
“Not bad,” he said.
Sabathia’s weekend got off to a mildly rough start when his wife’s car broke down shortly after the family caravan departed for Cooperstown. They arrived in plenty of time though, and Sabathia was greeted warmly by numerous Yankees fans who made the trip.
After breaking in with Cleveland at age 20, Sabathia rocketed to stardom with a 17-5 rookie season. Alas, that came in 2001, the same year that Suzuki landed in the American League.
“Thank you most of all to the great players sitting behind me,” Sabathia said. “I am so proud and humbled to join you as a Hall of Famer, even Ichiro, who stole my Rookie of the Year Award in 2001.”
Sabathia focused the bulk of his comments on the support he has received over the years from his friends and family, especially his wife, Amber.
“The first time we met was at a house party when I was a junior in high school,” Sabathia said. “We spent the whole night talking, and that conversation has been going on for 29 years.”
Parker, 74, died from complications of Parkinson’s disease on June 28, less than a month before the induction ceremony. Representing him at the dais was his son, Dave Parker II, and though the moment was bittersweet, it was hardly somber.
Parker II finished the speech with a moving poem written by his father that, for a few minutes, made it feel as if the player nicknamed “The Cobra” were present.
“Thanks for staying by my side,” Parker’s poem concluded. “I told y’all Cooperstown would be my last rap, so the star of Dave will be in the sky tonight. Watch it glow. But I didn’t lie in my documentary — I told you I wouldn’t show.”
Parker finished with 2,712 hits and 339 homers, won two Gold Gloves on the strength of his legendary right-field arm and was named NL MVP in 1978. He spent his first 11 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates and entered the Hall representing the Bucs.
Wagner, whose 422 career saves ranks eighth on the all-time list, delivered an emotional but humorous speech about a small-town guy with a small-for-a-pitcher 5-foot-10 stature who made it big.
“I feel like my baseball life has come full circle,” Wagner said. “I was a fan before I could play. Back when baseball wasn’t so available on TV, every Saturday morning I watched Johnny Bench and so many of the other greats on a show ‘The Baseball Bunch.'”
In one of the moments of baseball serendipity that only Cooperstown can provide, the telecast flashed to Bench, sitting a few feet away from where Wagner was speaking.
Allen’s widow, Willa, delivered a touching tribute to her late husband, who died in 2020 after years of feeling overlooked for his outstanding career. The 1964 NL Rookie of the Year for the Phillies, Allen won the 1972 AL MVP for the Chicago White Sox.
“Baseball was his first love,” Willa said. “He used to say, ‘I’d have played for nothing,’ and I believe he meant it. But of course, if you compare today’s salary, he played almost for nothing.”
Willa focused on the softer side of a player who in his time was perhaps unfairly characterized for a contentious relationship with the media.
“He was devoted to people, not just fans, but especially his teammates,” Willa said. “If he heard someone was sick or going through a tough time, he’ll turn to me and say, ‘Willa, they have to hear from us.'”
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Alden Gonzalez
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash, both teams announced Sunday.
As part of the deal, the Cardinals will cover the majority of what remains of Fedde’s $7.5 million salary for 2025, a source told ESPN.
Fedde, 32, is a free agent at season’s end, making him a surprising pickup for a Braves team that was swept by the Texas Rangers over the weekend and is 16 games below .500, trailing the first-place New York Mets by 16½ games.
But the Braves have sustained a slew of injuries to their starting rotation of late, with AJ Smith-Shawver (torn ulnar collateral ligament), Spencer Schwellenbach (fractured elbow), Chris Sale (fractured ribcage) and, more recently, Grant Holmes (elbow inflammation) landing on the injured list since the start of June.
Fedde reestablished himself in South Korea in 2023, parlaying a dominant season into a two-year, $15 million contract to return stateside with the Chicago White Sox. Fedde continued that success in 2024, posting a 3.30 ERA in 177⅓ innings with the White Sox and Cardinals.
This year, though, it has been a struggle for a crafty right-hander who doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts. Twenty starts in, Fedde is 3-10 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.
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