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We are two weeks into the 2023 MLB season, and most teams have played a dozen games of their 162-game schedule. In other words, it’s early. Perhaps too early to glean a whole lot from what has happened so far. But what’s the fun in that?

We asked our MLB experts to go all-in on what they’ve seen by making a prediction based on this small sample size. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted, with two conditions: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they truly believe could happen this season.

Some of our predictors went really wild, while others chose to play it safe, so we took the liberty of ranking their choices from mild to spicy. Here is what they chose.


Born to be mild

AJ Mass: San Francisco will be the even-steven Giants

Forget the very good Tampa Bay Rays, off to an 11-0 start, and the very bad Oakland Athletics, already in last place and on their way to a 100-loss campaign. My hot take is that the San Francisco Giants will be the most feast and famine team in all of baseball. They’re going to have their very good days. They’re going to have their very bad days. But by the time we get to October, they’ll be exactly 81-81. And here’s where it gets interesting: They’ll lead the league both in the number of times they are shut out and the number of times they score in double digits.

Why it’s mild: This prediction is oddly specific, but that doesn’t make it all that bold. It’s a long season — and we all have our good days and our bad days. Our preseason projections had the Giants at 85 wins, so predicting them to finish four wins off, with an equal number of really good and really bad moments, isn’t going all that far out on a limb.


Joon Lee: A last-place finish in Boston?

Adam Duvall‘s broken wrist revealed the wobbly foundation of the Boston Red Sox‘s roster. To replace Duvall, Boston called up Bobby Dalbec, who has been trying to add shortstop and third base to his repertoire. The injury is pushing Boston to play Enrique Hernandez — who started the season at shortstop — in the outfield, where he has led the league in errors while filling in for the injured Trevor Story.

Boston already needed everything to go right this season to have a shot at the playoffs — but one injury has already shaken the Red Sox’s roster to its core.

Why it’s mild: To understand why we aren’t exactly melting from the heat of this take, one needs to look no further than the 2022 American League East standings, where you will find the Boston Red Sox all the way at the bottom. Combine what we saw on the field last year, the lack of a splashy offseason addition and a slow start this season, and it might actually be bolder to predict the Red Sox will finish anywhere other than the basement of a loaded division.


It’s not that you aren’t bold; others are just bolder

Brad Doolittle: The Brewers will make the playoffs — and the Dodgers won’t

I’m going to refrain from pointing out how the concept of hot takes makes rational people say things that they don’t actually mean. Instead, I will just point out that in 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a wider range of possibilities than they have had at any time in the past decade or longer. I also think the Milwaukee Brewers are going to make the playoffs. That is not a hot take. If the Brewers invade what felt like a largely set National League playoff field, someone will miss out. The hot take part of my otherwise rational mind tells me that team will be the Dodgers.

Why it’s (mostly) mild: OK, we’re going to refrain from pointing out that the concept of this exercise is to bring out your inner hot taker to tell us what you really mean but haven’t yet said. Instead, we will just point out that you spent the first half of your allotted hot take window explaining why the Brewers making the playoffs isn’t a hot take. Then right there at the end, you heat up and drop some boldness on us. We’ll give you some points for predicting the Dodgers’ playoff streak will end, but your hot take delivery is a work in progress, at best.


Eric Karabell: Rookies will carry the Dodgers to the top of the NL West

The Dodgers will have at least three of the top five in NL Rookie of the Year voting. James Outman already should be their regular center fielder, a potential 20-homer, 20-steal option with plate discipline. Second baseman Miguel Vargas is a walk magnet with power. Down on the farm, right-handers Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller are future aces; both are already better than No. 5 starter Noah Syndergaard, and who knows if Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin can stay healthy for six months. The Dodgers will win the NL West again, led by rookies in the lineup and rotation.

Why it’s (mostly) mild: This take is actually hotter than it looks on the surface. First, it’s important to point out that this is starting to feel like a loaded rookie class in the National League. Corbin Carroll, Jordan Walker, Kodai Senga and Garrett Mitchell have all shown why they are threats to win the award this year alongside the first two Dodgers you mentioned. Then you go ahead and add a third Dodger, who isn’t in the majors yet, as a potential breakout name to watch — and casually put L.A. ahead of San Diego in the NL West. Nailed the dismount.


Now we’re heating up

Tim Keown: The 2023 Athletics just might be the worst team … ever

It gives me no pleasure to report that the Oakland Athletics — who currently have a 3-9 record with an OPS of .655 and an ERA of 7.54 — have all the pieces in place to challenge the 1962 New York Mets for most losses in a 162-game season. The Mets, in their first season, lost 120, and it remains to be seen if the A’s can conjure the same lovable loser mythology that allowed those Mets to achieve a certain legendary status in the game’s history. More likely, Oakland’s unique combination of a spin-the-wheel roster and apathetic ownership will go down as more sad than playful.

Why it’s got some heat: Yes, the A’s are 3-9, but we really don’t need the standings to tell us that this is not a good baseball team. You also weren’t quite willing to predict that they would become the biggest single-season losers of all time — just that they have a chance to challenge for the dubious mark. That said, any time you are willing to throw out a comparison to the 1962 Mets this early in the season, you have our attention.


Alden Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani will win the Cy Young, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove and, of course, MVP

I will say this confidently without even looking it up: This has never been done before. And thinking this is anything less than the hottest take imaginable only speaks to how much of a unicorn Shohei Ohtani actually is. Still, it’s … realistic? Let’s break it down.

Ohtani already won a Silver Slugger in 2021, and Yordan Alvarez won it in the designated hitter category in 2022. It could come down to those two again this year. The Cy Young might be just as reachable, given that Ohtani finished fourth in the voting last year, he lines up to make more starts in 2023 (he’ll pitch with five days’ rest each time, as opposed to operating within a strict six-man rotation and often getting additional time between starts) and he continues to evolve as a pitcher. A Gold Glove? That might actually be his toughest award; it’s really hard to decipher this for pitchers due to the rarity of fielding opportunities at that position. But Ohtani certainly has the ability here too. If he earns all three, he’ll win the MVP unanimously, again, and sign for a billion dollars — or something like that.

Why it’s got some heat: This take is not quite as hot as it originally sounds — but that is more a product of Ohtani being really, really good than a fault of the hot taker. Predicting any player to unanimously win MVP honors in a league that could see Aaron Judge hit 60-plus home runs again is bold. Predicting that same player will be the Cy Young in his league is also bold. The trouble here is that Ohtani is so amazing that predicting him to win both is actually taking a favorite for each award.

Now, if Ohtani’s next contract is actually for one billion dollars, we’ll come back and crown this the spiciest take on the list.


Wait, is anything about the Rays really that bold right now?

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Mad Dog pours cold water on Rays’ hot start

Chris “Mad Dog” Russo doesn’t see the Rays as a World Series contender despite their hot start this season.

Buster Olney: The Rays will go wire to wire in the AL East

I’ll take my first mulligan in the preseason predictions and say: The Tampa Bay Rays are going to go wire to wire and win the AL East. That doesn’t mean that the New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays will fade; those are two very good teams. But the first two weeks have revealed the Rays as a deep and dangerous team: Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena have developed into core stars, and they’re surrounded by an excellent cast of supporting players. History shows us it’s possible for teams to break away early, never to be caught: the 1984 Tigers, 1955 Dodgers and 1977 Dodgers are examples. The balanced schedule means fewer games against the AL East, which will help the Rays keep their early-season grip on first place.

Why it’s actually pretty hot: Just two weeks ago, our MLB experts made their predictions for the season — and only one of our 28 voters tabbed the Rays to win the AL East. Now that was bold. But being willing to go all-in on Tampa Bay’s fast start two weeks in is still pretty hot. This leaves us to wonder how many of the other 27 voters who didn’t pick the Rays would switch their pick if given the chance today.


Jeff Passan: Your 2023 AL Cy Young will be … Jeffrey Springs

Yes, I’m suggesting a 30-year-old who before last season had started two games in his major league career is primed to beat out Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom and Shohei Ohtani for the prize of best pitcher in the American League. A 30th-round draft pick on his third organization will be better than Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and even his own teammate Shane McClanahan. Why? Well, the one-word answer is: sweeper. Springs bullied his way into Tampa Bay’s rotation last year on the strength of exceptional fastball command and a gyro-spinning changeup that dies three-quarters of the way to the plate. But the emergence of a legitimately excellent breaking pitch — the sweeping slider he developed over the winter — has taken a good pitcher and made him great. In six starts between spring training and the regular season, Springs has thrown 27 shutout innings, struck out 43 and allowed only 16 baserunners. He’s still +2500 to win the Cy Young. Get in before the odds grow even shorter.

Why it’s actually pretty hot: OK, Rays or not, this is coming in hot. Be honest, readers: How many of you actually knew who Jeffrey Springs was two weeks ago? (How many of you knew who he was two minutes ago?) Now, how about those readers who live outside of the greater Tampa area? Not many, right? So predicting the Rays pitcher will go from relative obscurity to topping names like Cole, deGrom, Ohtani, Cease, Alek Manoah for the AL’s top pitching honor is a very spicy take.

We do have to wonder though: Is this simply a case of one Jeffrey going all-in for another?


Who turned up the heat?

Paul Hembekides: 230 hits for Luis Arraez

I know, 230 is a massive number; no hitter has gotten there since Ichiro Suzuki in 2007. But there are two reasons Arraez can pull it off: He leads the majors in contact rate (91%) since he entered the league in 2019 and will benefit from the abolition of the shift as much as anybody (.178 batting average on pulled ground balls and infield line drives from 2019 to 2022). Should he continue to bat leadoff for the Miami Marlins, pencil him in for 700 plate appearances and a run at a hit total we’ve not seen in 16 years.

Why it’s a very hot take: You had us at Ichiro. Any time the category is hits and the answer includes “nobody has done this since Ichiro,” you are probably talking about a pretty significant feat. In fact, here is the entire list of players to reach 230 hits in a single season since 2000: Ichiro (three times) and Darin Erstad (in 2000). Add in the fact that Arraez’s career high is just 173 hits and the heat just keeps rising on this take.


Jesse Rogers: None of last year’s six division winners will repeat

This is coming from someone who picked all 12 playoff teams to return to the postseason two weeks ago. In the AL, the Seattle Mariners or Texas Rangers will upend the Houston Astros. The Minnesota Twins or Chicago White Sox will beat out the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays … well, you get it.

In the NL, Milwaukee’s magic continues through 162, and the San Diego Padres — or even the Arizona Diamondbacks — win the NL West. The NL East is where this take gets toughest; I don’t love picking against the Atlanta Braves, but the Mets will get a boost when Justin Verlander returns.

Why it’s a very hot take: A little behind-the-scenes hot take truth: This take just missed making the cut for our final and boldest category. What you did here reminds us of a term you usually hear in Las Vegas: parlay. None of these predictions is all that bold alone, but when you keep stacking the teams that won’t repeat as division champs, it adds up to a very hot take.

What kept it just shy of the tier every hot taker is striving to reach? Well, let’s use another term you often hear in Vegas: hedging. There are a lot of eithers and ors when you get around to telling us who actually will win these divisions. And for that reason, it falls just shy of the next two takes.


You sure you can handle this heat?

David Schoenfield: Aaron Judge hits 64 home runs and posts the first 11-WAR season since Barry Bonds in 2002

Home runs are up. Batting averages are up. Walks are way up as pitchers are perhaps struggling adjusting to the pitch clock. Oh, and Aaron Judge is off to a strong start with four home runs already. Last year, he hit one his first 13 games. Judge’s maturation as a hitter is now complete; don’t forget that he hit .311 last season, second in the American League. He has learned to take care of his body and has been healthy the past two seasons. We haven’t even gotten to the warmer weather of summer when the ball really starts flying. All rise for a new AL home run record for the second straight season.

Why this take is straight fire: Look, every take on this list is hot in some shape or form. So to make it into this elite tier, the hottest of hot takes, it takes something extra spicy — and this take certainly fits.

In fact, when this take arrived, another hot taker couldn’t help but comment, “Dave coming in with a flamethrower and propane tank.” And who are we to argue over something that drew that kind of reaction. Sure, we could pick nits that the first half of this prediction is actually calling for Judge to hit just two more home runs than he did last season, which is not all that bold. But you then went ahead and doubled down with a WAR total that Barry Bonds is the only position player to reach this century and left us with no choice but to respect the heat.


Tristan Cockcroft: Rangers will be the AL West’s last team standing this October

They play in a competitive division in which three other teams were generally more popular preseason playoff picks; indeed, the Rangers were regarded more of a hey-maybe-in-2024 contender. But this team is built strongly enough to win now — and make serious noise during the postseason. Sure, a little luck is needed on the injury front (hello, Jacob deGrom), but piling up April and May wins will have a way of coaxing the Rangers’ big-spending, going-for-it-soon owner to dive right in. And since they possess organizational prospect depth that a mere handful of teams can rival, this is the team that shocks the world by trading for Shohei Ohtani at the deadline, the final puzzle player the Rangers need to make their serious October push. Just like last October, we’ll again be talking up the managerial prowess of an ex-Giants skipper.

Why this take is straight fire: When this take came in, we passed it around like, well, a hot potato, because we couldn’t handle the heat. One response summed it up best: “It’s like a Trojan horse. It’s bold … then gets super-specific bold.”

If you had just picked the Rangers to be the last AL West team standing, ahead of the defending champion Astros and the Shohei Ohtani/Mike Trout-led Angels, that alone would have been bold. But the way you just snuck in, “Oh, by the way, they’ll also trade for Ohtani — from across the same division, mind you,” without skipping a beat, that is the stuff of hot take legend. Now we just have to wait about 150 more games to see if any of this comes true.

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Hamlin, off Dover win, signs extension with JGR

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Hamlin, off Dover win, signs extension with JGR

INDIANAPOLIS — Denny Hamlin never wanted to drive for a team other than Joe Gibbs Racing.

A two-year contract extension may seal the deal.

On Friday, five days after winning his 58th Cup race, the 44-year-old Hamlin signed what he said would likely be his final contract extension. JGR officials said the deal was for multiple years, though Hamlin noted he didn’t want anything longer than two years.

“Two years is what I was comfortable with,” he said. “I wanted to make sure I gave them the proper time and make sure I commit to them for not one year but multiple years, to let them try to continue to build the program. I want to make sure I’m still at my peak form in my final year.”

There’s no indication Hamlin is slowing down.

He owns a series-best four wins this season and has the top points total (663) outside the Hendrick Motorsports stable, trailing only Chase Elliott, William Byron and Kyle Larson entering the weekend.

A win in Sunday’s Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway would allow Hamlin to complete a career sweep of NASCAR’s crown jewel races. He has already won three Daytona 500s, three Southern 500s and one Coca-Cola 600.

“Adding another crown jewel would be big and then to have swept them all,” said Hamlin, who will make his 17th career Indy start. “I mean, certainly the names are very, very prestigious on that list, so it would certainly mean a lot to me. It would be just another feather in the cap.”

Hamlin has done just about everything else since his first race in 2005 — except win a series title.

With 706 career starts, all with JGR, he is the longest-tenured driver in team history even though he missed one race this year after the birth of his first son and third child. He ranks 11th on the Cup’s career victory list. He also owns 244 top-five finishes and 369 top-10s and has won the pole 44 times.

He and NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan even co-own NASCAR’s 23XI Racing team, which fields cars for Bubba Wallace, Riley Herbst and Tyler Reddick. Hamlin’s team and Front Row Motorsports are locked in a legal battle over antitrust allegations against NASCAR.

Hamlin also acknowledged he is not ready to retire yet, and he might not be in two years either.

Instead, he wants to see how it feels to be out of the driver’s seat, knowing comebacks in this sport happen routinely. Should he have second thoughts, he might even return to JGR.

“I really appreciate Denny and everything he has meant to our organization,” Gibbs said in a statement. “It is just really special when you think about everything we’ve experienced over the past 20 years, from that first moment when J.D. [Gibbs] recognized his talent at a test session, until now. It is remarkable in any sport to compete at the level Denny has for this long and we are thrilled he has been able to spend his entire career with us.”

But Hamlin’s decision also came down to more than sentiment.

“I’d kind of like to see where I’m at two years from now, where the team’s at, what’s their Plan B, where they are with that and then just how competitive I am, how good do I feel how much and how bad do I want it,” Hamlin said. “All those things are big, big, big factors in it. But I just want the ability to know I can win my last race. That’s the deciding factor.”

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Olney: The 8 teams most desperate to make a deadline deal

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Olney: The 8 teams most desperate to make a deadline deal

It would be ideal if every MLB team were so desperate to win that they would do whatever it takes. But in an industry with so many variables from team to team — roster composition, payroll commitment, market size, owner ambition, fan rabidity and history — some organizations are willing to go further and do more than others.

The New York Mets paid more in luxury taxes last season ($97 million) than the Pittsburgh Pirates have dedicated to payroll this season, and Pittsburgh could attempt to reduce salary commitments even further at this year’s trade deadline.

Some teams are more desperate than others. As we near the July 31 deadline, we present the teams most desperate to make a deal.


New York played in the World Series last year, and in a lot of markets, that might be enough to satisfy a fan base. But not with the Yankees, whose most faithful fans judge them under the George Steinbrenner Doctrine: If you don’t win the World Series, you’ve had a bad year. This is a constant.

The Yankees could return to where they were last October. The 33-year-old Aaron Judge, one of the most dynamic hitters ever, is having another historic season. New York wants to take advantage of that — particularly because the American League is wide open with as many as seven or eight AL teams having reasonable paths to the World Series.

But the Yankees still have distinct holes. They badly need an upgrade at third base, which someone like Eugenio Suarez could fill. Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt suffered season-ending elbow injuries, leaving a need for another experienced starting pitcher. Their bullpen also needs help in the sixth and seventh innings.

After the departure of Juan Soto, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman are probably under more pressure to do something this season than any of their peers. What else is new?


It’s remarkable how similar this version of the Phillies is to the teams that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski constructed in Detroit, with Philadelphia’s strong starting pitching (Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez playing the roles of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) and a lineup of sluggers (Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder).

The major question that hangs over this Philadelphia team, as was the case with those Tigers teams, is about the bullpen: Is there enough depth and power? For the Phillies, that is complicated by the situation with lefty Jose Alvarado, who will return in August from his 80-game suspension under the PED policy but not be eligible for the postseason.

The Phillies paid heavily for free agent reliever David Robertson, giving him the equivalent of a $16 million salary for the rest of the regular season, but they could use another reliever who is adept at shutting down high-end right-handed hitters in the postseason.


On the days Tarik Skubal pitches, the Tigers could be the best team in baseball; it’s possible that in the postseason, he could be his generation’s version of Orel Hershiser or Madison Bumgarner, propelling his team through round after round of playoffs to the World Series.

But the Tigers might have Skubal for only the rest of this year and next season, before he, advised by his agent Scott Boras, heads into free agency and becomes maybe the first $400 million pitcher in history.

Now is the time for Detroit to make a push for its first championship in more than four decades. And for Scott Harris, the team’s president of baseball operations, that means adding a couple of high-impact relievers capable of generating a lot of swing-and-misses.


The Mariners showed they are serious about making moves before this deadline with Thursday’s trade for first baseman Josh Naylor.

The last time the Mariners won a playoff series, Ichiro Suzuki — who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend — was a rookie. Edgar Martinez was a 38-year-old designated hitter, and Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia were the staff aces. You get the point: It has been a really long time since the Mariners have had postseason success, and the team has never reached the World Series.

An opportunity seems to be developing for Seattle. The talented rotation, hammered by injuries in the first months of this season, could be whole for the stretch run. Cal Raleigh is having the greatest season by a catcher, contending with Judge for the AL MVP Award. Julio Rodriguez has generally been a strong second-half player.

Even ownership seems inspired: After a winter in which the Mariners spent almost nothing to upgrade the roster, other teams report that Seattle could absorb money in trades before the deadline.


5. New York Mets

Owner Steve Cohen doesn’t sport the highest payroll this year — the Dodgers’ Mark Walter is wearing that distinction — but the Mets are well over the luxury tax threshold again, in the first season after signing Juan Soto. Cohen has made it clear that generally, he will do what it takes to land the club’s first championship trophy since 1986.

But that does not include preventing David Stearns, the Mets’ respected president of baseball operations, from doing what he does best — making subtle and effective deals at the trade deadline. Rival execs expect that Stearns will work along the same lines he did last year — finding trades that improve the team’s depth without pillaging its growing farm system. That could mean adding a starting pitcher capable of starting Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series, as well as bullpen depth.

Cohen is experiencing the impact of overseeing a front office that made an impetuous win-now trade at the 2021 deadline, when the Mets swapped a minor leaguer named Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez. That clearly didn’t pan out for them. Cohen is desperate to win, but within the prescribed guardrails.


Last winter, the Padres had to live with the knowledge that they were probably the best team other than the Dodgers and that they came within a win of knocking out L.A. There is a lot about San Diego’s 2025 roster to like: Manny Machado clearly responds to a big stage, and the bullpen could be the most dominant at a time of year when relief corps often decide championships.

However, as Padres general manager A.J. Preller navigates this trade deadline in the hopes of living out late owner Peter Seidler’s dream of winning San Diego’s first World Series title, he has a relatively thin, aging, top-heavy roster with a lot of significant payroll obligations. This is why the Padres are considering trading Dylan Cease, who is potentially the highest-impact starter available on the market. Preller could move Cease to fill other roster needs, current and future ones, and then deal for a cheaper veteran starter to replace him.

“He’ll have to rob Peter to pay Paul,” one of Preller’s peers said.


Hope has emerged after the team’s all-in, $500 million signing of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with the Blue Jays taking the lead in the AL East.

Toronto’s rotation is comprised of an older group — 34-year-old Kevin Gausman, 36-year-old Chris Bassitt, 40-year-old Max Scherzer and 31-year-old Jose Berrios. Without a clear favorite in the AL, Toronto could break through for its first title since the Jays went back-to-back in 1992-93 — and in just the second season since the club’s expensive renovations of Rogers Centre were completed. When Alex Anthopoulos led the front office a decade ago, he made an all-in push to get the Jays back into the playoffs, adding players like David Price because he believed this was the right time for them to take their shot — and they came very close to getting back to the World Series.

Reportedly, Mark Shapiro — the team’s incoming president at the time — did not approve of Anthopoulos’s strategy. Now, Shapiro’s Blue Jays are in a similar situation in 2025 to where they were under Anthopoulos: Will they wheel and deal aggressively before the deadline, or will they be conservative?


The Dodgers won the World Series in 2024, after taking the title in the shortened season of 2020. So, if they don’t win a championship this year, it’s not as if a bunch of people are getting fired and the roster will be jettisoned. But winning can be intoxicating, especially when the lineup and rotation are loaded with stars: The Dodgers can envision a postseason in which a starting staff of Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could propel the team to a second consecutive title.

But the Dodgers’ bullpen — heavily worked in the first months of this season because of injuries to the rotation — is in tatters due to bullpen injuries. Will the Dodgers’ push to become the first team to repeat as champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees drive them to swap valuable prospects for needed bullpen help before the deadline? We’re about to find out.


This is a team very well-suited for the postseason: The Cubs are a strong defensive team; they have a deep lineup around Kyle Tucker, in what might be Tucker’s only season in Chicago; and they put the ball in play.

They’ve got a good farm system, as well as an experienced president of baseball operations in Jed Hoyer. He was part of championships in Boston in 2004 and 2007 and was the Cubs’ general manager for their 2016 title. He and Theo Epstein made the Nomar Garciaparra deal at the trade deadline in 2004, in advance of Boston’s breakthrough title in 2004, and the all-in trade for Aroldis Chapman on the way to the Cubs’ first World Series win in 108 years in 2016.

But the X factor for Chicago in recent years is whether ownership operates with the same desperation — in the way that Astros owner Jim Crane did when he pushed through a Justin Verlander trade for Houston in August 2017.

This seems to be a good time for the Cubs to be desperate, to do anything to win another championship. Will a title be a priority for owner Tom Ricketts?

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MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: What will follow Mariners landing Naylor?

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MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: What will follow Mariners landing Naylor?

The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31.

Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?

Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.

More: Top 50 trade candidates | Passan’s deadline preview

Jump to: Trending names | Completed deals | Latest intel


MLB trade deadline trending names

1. Eugenio Suarez: The Arizona Diamondbacks star is No. 1 in our updated MLB trade deadline candidate rankings and could be the most impactful player to move this month. On pace to hit more than 50 home runs, the 2025 All-Star is on the wish list of every contender in need of third-base help.

2. Dylan Cease: The idea of Cease as a possible trade deadline candidate adds an intriguing name to this year’s starting pitching options. A free agent after the season, the right-hander is one of the game’s best strikeout artists and would be moved by the Padres only in return for major league help.

3. Jhoan Duran: This deadline is suddenly teeming with high-end relievers who will at the very least be in the rumor mill during the coming days. If the Minnesota Twins opt to move their closer — and his devastating splinker — Duran might be the best of the bunch.

Completed deal tracker

Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor

The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi are headed back to the Arizona Diamondbacks from the Seattle Mariners for first baseman Josh Naylor, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grades »


MLB trade deadline buzz

July 24 updates

Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers

July 23 updates

Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.

The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo


A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney


How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers


Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.

The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez


July 22 updates

An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney


Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney


Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney


Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers


How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.

Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney


What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.

But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.

It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez


Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers


Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.

But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney


Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers


Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.

The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez


Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney

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