Mexico City’s uphill climb toward landing an MLB franchise
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Eric GomezMexico writer
MEXICO CITY — By the time the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants take the field Saturday for their historic two-game series at Mexico City’s Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium, a flurry of Major League Baseball officials will have waxed poetic about the capital city’s warm reception and appetite for the sport. In-between the pomp and excitement common with these visits, one thought will linger above others: Is this metropolis of 22 million people equipped to sustain a full-fledged major league franchise?
It’s a fair question, one that pops up every time any top-tier U.S. sports league treks south of the border to grow its brand, or when the topic of expansion is broached. MLB’s answer for now is a resolute “no.” Commissioner Rob Manfred said Monday during a meeting with the Associated Press Sports Editors that he has “never been close to the idea of Mexico as an expansion opportunity.”
The weekend Mexico City Series will nevertheless give that Latin American market an opportunity to showcase its regular-season major league potential for the first time. Given that the Oakland A’s signaled an imminent move to Las Vegas last week, it is logical to deduce that expansion will once again be on MLB’s agenda once the Tampa Bay Rays‘ stadium situation is resolved.
Polls frequently identify baseball as one of the most popular sports in Mexico, though the connection hardly needs to be quantified. Fifteen Mexican-born players are on active rosters. Historically, the country has produced 146 major league players, dating to the 1933 debut of Mel Almada — the last player to record a hit off Babe Ruth. The Babe himself swatted his last exhibition home run in 1946 at the Parque Delta stadium in Mexico City in front of an adoring crowd.
The national team’s semifinal run featuring Rays star Randy Arozarena at last month’s World Baseball Classic drew huge pro-Mexico crowds in Phoenix and Miami as the squad’s jersey supplier struggled to meet demand from fans. The Mexico City Series itself sold out in under an hour.
Still, Mexico City’s viability as a major league venue will continue to be scrutinized in the wake of Manfred’s comments. As the series between the Padres and Giants gets underway, ESPN looks at some of Mexico City’s big league challenges should it seize on an expansion or relocation opening.
Stadium sustainability
The series marks the first time Mexico City will host regular-season baseball, though a pair of exhibition games between the Padres and Houston Astros were played there in 2016. The city of Monterrey in northern Mexico hosted the previous 11 regular-season games in the country, with the Padres taking part in seven of them — including the inaugural series in 1996.
Manfred hasn’t always been cool to the idea of an expansion team on international soil, indicating in 2016 that if he had a preference, Montreal or Mexico City would be where “we could go plan on a sustained basis.”
“Mexico has a lot of potential as a market for MLB in the future,” Rodrigo Fernandez, MLB’s top lieutenant in Latin America, told ESPN. “The country continues to grow and will become more attractive as time goes on. MLB has been here for years now because we understand the potential Mexico has moving forward.”
Mexico City’s ballpark is named after Alfredo Harp Helu, the billionaire businessman and Padres stakeholder who also happens to own Mexico City’s summer pro ballclub, the Diablos Rojos. The stadium was built at a cost of $166.5 million and, upon completion, was deemed an ultramodern facility by MLB. However, it seats just over 20,000 fans. For context, the smallest stadium in the majors in terms of capacity is Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field, at 25,000.
“The stadium is big league level,” Fernandez said. “The only thing separating it is the capacity — big league parks tend to be larger.”
No ballpark in Mexico exceeds 25,000 in capacity. Any modifications to the Mexico City stadium would require another major investment, one that would almost certainly have to come from the private sector. Public funds are typically not made available for infrastructure projects in sports as they are in the U.S., where only three teams — the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Giants — have privately owned stadiums. The Texas Rangers, for instance, have called two ballparks home since 1994 that were built with varying degrees of public funds.
The weekend forecast for the area calls for no inclement weather, but rain delays could be a major problem during the course of a major league season. Mexico City averages 43 days of precipitation in July and August alone, and the ballpark is not domed.
As with the previous series in Monterrey, ticket availability will be hard to come by in Mexico City. However, mass ticket sales for an 81-game home schedule might be a challenge with waning demand as a season progresses.
Footing the bill
The fluctuating nature of Mexico’s currency, the peso and its relative weakness against the dollar has also long been an issue. A study by Mexico’s Department of Labor released last year found that the average salary for a Mexico City resident fluctuates between 11,904 and 12,931 pesos per month, which converts to about $660 and $720 U.S. It would seem difficult to believe the market could produce a comparable amount of local revenue akin to any city in the United States.
That’s to say nothing of skyrocketing player payrolls in MLB, where the average for 2023 is $159,732,757. Eight teams, including the Padres, have blown past the $200 million mark. The New York Mets will spend over $344 million, more than twice the mean.
“It’s viable, maybe not in the short term, but later on,” said Eduardo Ortega, the Padres’ Spanish radio play-by-play voice. “Right now, economically speaking, such a thing is prohibitive to most countries outside the United States. In Mexico, specifically, I think it’s hard to say this generation or even the next will see a franchise located here.”
Manfred indicated in 2021 that any potential expansion bid would draw a fee upwards of $1 billion — underscoring the need for a bidder with deep pockets. Harp would be an obvious candidate with a reported net worth of $1.58 billion. Then there is his wealthier cousin, Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim, who in in 2008 flew in then-Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez to the outskirts of Mexico City to dedicate a youth baseball field. The sporting portfolio of Slim, whose net worth is estimated to be $95.5 billion, includes investments in soccer teams and Formula 1 sponsorships.
Safety and culture
In 1994, Harp was kidnapped in Mexico City and held for ransom for 106 days. In his autobiography, titled “Vivir y Morir Jugando Beisbol” (“To Live and Die Playing Baseball”), he laid out the ordeal, metaphorically, in baseball terms: “The [kidnappers] threw their pitches and tied my arms so I couldn’t hit, so I would strike out looking. Those days I was captive felt like losing 106 games in a row.”
Mexico City has experienced a sharp decrease in homicides since 2019 and is considered relatively safe in comparison to Mexican cities on the northern border ravaged by drug-trafficking violence. However, the U.S. Department of State recommends citizens “exercise increased caution when traveling to Mexico City due to crime.”
Providing safety to personnel would obviously be the priority for any team in Mexico City, but cultural considerations would also need to be addressed in a city where English is not the predominant language.
“As a Mexican, I do dream about seeing a team down here someday,” Ortega said. “But those types of issues make it that much harder.”
There is precedent, albeit on a smaller scale. Mexico City’s NBA G League team, the Capitanes, has featured several Americans players on its roster — including NBA veteran Kenneth Faried. Meanwhile, the State Department estimates that 1.6 million American citizens live in Mexico. The capital city itself has also become a popular hub for digital nomads comprising professionals of all walks in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many of whom have relocated from the U.S. because of the more affordable cost of living.
A real longshot
In 2003, Monterrey businessman Carlos Bremer made a play to bring the Montreal Expos to his city before the team eventually became the Washington Nationals. The region has the stamp of approval of Dodgers legend Fernando Valenzuela, who in 2018 identified Monterrey an “apt city to one day have a big league franchise.”
Still, a proposal from any Mexican hopeful would face stiff competition from a flurry of other North American markets vying for expansion or relocation opportunities that don’t have the built-in roadblocks that Mexico City and Monterrey do.
“The commissioner has been clear in saying which markets are in the running currently,” Fernandez said. “Nashville has been mentioned, Portland as well. In these last few years, we’ve focused on other priorities with growing the game in Mexico, and because of that the number of fans has grown greatly.”
The A’s recent purchase of land in Las Vegas points to a preference for the Western U.S. Meanwhile, the possibility remains that the Rays could have their pick of whatever city north of the Rio Grande decides to build that franchise a stadium.
Still, Manfred and MLB will continue to make inroads in Mexico, which along with Puerto Rico is the only venue in Latin America that has hosted baseball games on a regular basis. More series are being planned in Mexico each May until 2026.
As the NFL did in 2021, MLB has awarded international marketing rights to its teams so they can take advantage of growth opportunities in specific countries. Mexico is almost certain to play a significant part of that initiative.
“For now, we’re focused on offering our fans in Mexico the best experience and a variety of events they can enjoy,” Fernandez said.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — An economist testified in Michael Jordan’s federal antitrust trial against NASCAR that the racing series owes a combined $364.7 million in damages to the two teams suing it over a revenue-sharing dispute.
Edward Snyder, a professor of economics who worked in the antitrust division of the Department of Justice and has testified in more than 30 cases, including “Deflategate” involving the NFL’s New England Patriots, testified on Monday. He gave three specific reasons NASCAR is a monopoly participating in anticompetitive business practices.
Using a complex formula applied to profits, a reduction in market revenue, and lost revenue to 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports from 2021-24, Snyder came up with his amount of damages owed. Snyder applied a 45% of revenue sharing he alleged Formula 1 gives to its teams in his calculations; Snyder found that NASCAR’s revenue-sharing model when its charter system began in 2016 gave only 25% to the teams.
The suit is about the 2025 charter agreement, which was presented to teams on a Friday in September 2024 with a same-day deadline to sign the 112-page document. The charter offer came after more than two years of bitter negotiations between NASCAR and its teams, who have called the agreement “a take-it-or-leave-it” ultimatum that they signed with “a gun to their head.”
A charter is similar to the franchise model in other sports, but in NASCAR it guarantees 36 teams spots in the 40-car field, as well as specific revenue.
Jordan and three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin for 23XI, along with Front Row Motorsports and owner Bob Jenkins, were the only two teams out of 15 to refuse the new charter agreement.
Snyder’s evaluations found NASCAR was in fact violating antitrust laws in that the privately owned racing series controls all bargaining because “teams don’t have anywhere else to sell their services.” Snyder said NASCAR controls “the tracks, the teams and the cars.”
Snyder repeatedly cited exclusivity agreements NASCAR entered into with racetracks after the charter system began. The agreements prevent tracks that host NASCAR from holding events with rival racing series. Prior to the long-term agreements, NASCAR operated on one-year contracts with its host racetracks.
The Florida-based France family founded NASCAR in 1948 and, along with Speedway Motorsports, owns almost all the tracks on the top Cup Series schedule. Snyder’s belief is that NASCAR entered into exclusivity agreements with tracks to stave off any threats of a breakaway startup series. In doing so, he said it eliminated teams’ ability to race stock cars anywhere else, forced them to accept revenue-sharing agreements that are below market value, and damaged their overall evaluations.
Snyder did his calculations for both teams based on each having two charters — each purchased a third charter in late 2024 — and found 23XI is owed $215.8 million while Front Row is owed $148.9 million. Based on his calculations, Snyder determined NASCAR shorted 36 chartered teams $1.06 billion from 2021-24.
Snyder noted NASCAR had $2.2 billion in assets, an equity value of $5 billion and an investment-grade credit rating — which Snyder believes positions the France family to be able to pivot and adjust to any threats of a rival series the way the PGA did in response to the LIV Golf league. The PGA, Snyder testified, “got creative” in bringing in new revenue to pay to its golfers to prevent their defections.
Snyder also testified NASCAR had $250 million in annual earnings from 2021-24 and the France family took $400 million in distributions during that period.
NASCAR contends Snyder’s estimations are wrong, that the 45% F1 model he used is not correct, and its own two experts “take serious issue” with Snyder’s findings. Defense attorney Lawrence Buterman asked Snyder his opinion on NASCAR’s upcoming expert witnesses and Snyder said they were two of the best economists in the world.
Snyder testified for almost the entirety of Monday’s session — the sixth day of the trial — and will continue on Tuesday. The snail’s pace has agitated U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell, who heard arguments 30 minutes early Monday morning because he was annoyed that objections had been submitted at 2:55 a.m. and then 6:50 a.m.
He needed an hour to get through the rulings, and testimony resumed 30 minutes behind schedule. When the day concluded, he asked the nine-person jury if they were willing to serve an hour longer each day the rest of the week in an effort to avoid a third full week of trial. He all said all motions must be filed by 10 p.m. each evening moving forward.
Bell wants plaintiff attorney Jeffrey Kessler to conclude his case by the end of Tuesday, but Kessler told him he still plans to call NASCAR chairman Jim France, NASCAR commissioner Steve Phelps and Hall of Fame team owner Richard Childress, who was the subject of derogatory text messages amongst NASCAR leadership and has said he’s considering legal action.
NASCAR has a list of 16 potential witnesses and Bell said he wanted the first one on the stand before Tuesday’s session concludes.
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Adam Rittenberg
The 12-team College Football Playoff is no longer new, but there are some different elements to consider when beginning the intrepid task of predicting every postseason game the day the pairings are announced.
For starters, there are more justifiably aggrieved teams at being left out of the 12-team CFP. Among them: Vanderbilt (10-2), BYU (11-2), Texas (9-3) and, of course, Notre Dame (10-2), which had the most bitter Sunday following the selections.
The annual coaching carousel always impacts the postseason, but this year has seen moves that have impacted the CFP unlike ever before. Ole Miss will play without former coach Lane Kiffin, while new coach Pete Golding will make his debut at the helm in the biggest game in team history. Jon Sumrall, meanwhile, will lead Tulane into its first CFP before focusing fully on his new job at Florida. James Madison is a surprise inclusion to the CFP, and coach Bob Chesney will lead the Dukes before departing for UCLA.
Several CFP teams also have coordinators moving on to head-coaching roles, including Oregon‘s Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal), and Ohio State‘s Brian Hartline (South Florida). There are also the standard uncertainties around bowl games, including NFL draft declarations and transfer announcements, which haven’t kicked into high gear yet since the portal doesn’t open until January. All this makes predicting the bowl/CFP outcomes right after the pairings are revealed kind of insane, but also fun!
Don’t mortgage your house on these, but if they hit, I will accept any and all gifts and congratulations. Without further ado, from Bowl Predictions HQ in downtown Indianapolis, here are the breakdowns and picks for every college football postseason game.
Ready, set, bowl!
All times ET.
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CFP games | Title game | Bowl schedule
Friday, Dec. 19
CFP first-round game
Alabama Crimson Tide at Oklahoma Sooners
Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman, Oklahoma)
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
The CFP begins with a rematch of a game played barely a month earlier at Bryant-Denny Stadium. I was there and came away impressed by Oklahoma’s defensive talent and layered scheme, which prevailed in a 23-21 victory. Alabama was clearly worn down toward the end of the season, not looking impressive in its victory at Auburn, and being held scoreless for more than 47 minutes against Georgia in the SEC championship. But teams that squeak into the CFP can gain some momentum from being granted a second life, and despite the head-to-head outcome in Tuscaloosa, Alabama still outgained Oklahoma 406-212 and had 11 more first downs. Quarterback Ty Simpson has a chance to reset and reclaim his accuracy, and running back Jam Miller will likely return for the CFP. Coach Kalen DeBoer and the Tide are no strangers to this stage, and they’ll find a way to win a close one in Norman.
Prediction: Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Saturday, Dec. 20
CFP first-round game
Miami Hurricanes at Texas A&M Aggies
Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
Noon, ABC, ESPN
The Hurricanes can exhale after making it into the field over Notre Dame, which they beat in the season opener. Miami is one of the nation’s most talented teams. Now the Hurricanes must draw from making their first CFP appearance against another CFP newcomer in Texas A&M, which is coming off its first loss of the season. Kyle Field is always electric and should help Texas A&M in its first CFP game, but Miami should benefit from the earlier start time, rather than having to deal with the 12th Man at night. Both teams have tremendous talent at wide receiver and playmaking quarterbacks in Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) and Carson Beck (Miami). But Miami’s improved defense under coordinator Corey Hetherman should provide the Canes an edge in this game, especially after Reed has thrown six interceptions in his past five games. The Hurricanes force a late takeaway and get out of Aggieland with a win.
Prediction: Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
CFP first-round game
Tulane Green Wave at Ole Miss Rebels
Vaught Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Mississippi)
3:30 p.m., TNT
A first-round rematch of a game Ole Miss won by 35 points back on Sept. 20 is less than ideal, but the changed circumstances around both programs add some intrigue. How will Ole Miss perform without Kiffin at the controls? Golding is a popular replacement, but he has never led this team and will be facing a future SEC competitor in Sumrall. Tulane defended North Texas extremely well in the American Conference championship game, forcing five turnovers and holding the Mean Green to seven points until the final minute of the third quarter. Golding’s defense gave Tulane problems in the first matchup, as quarterback Jake Retzlaff completed only 5 of 17 passes for 56 yards before being benched. Tulane struggled to defend Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who had 307 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 112 rushing yards in the first meeting. Sumrall’s team will play a bit better this time, but Ole Miss overcomes a slow start to pull away behind Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
CFP first-round game
James Madison Dukes at Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon)
7:30 p.m., TNT
A year ago, the Ducks went 13-0 and received a very tough CFP draw, which resulted in a fast and humbling exit in the Rose Bowl. Oregon will be playing earlier in this year’s playoff, and coach Dan Lanning’s team is heavily favored to advance against James Madison, the Sun Belt champion. Although the Dukes are well-coached and won their final 11 games, they did so in a weaker-than-normal Sun Belt and lost at Louisville by 14 points, while also surviving a home scare against Washington State. Oregon needs no motivation after losing big to Ohio State in last season’s CFP. The Ducks should finally be healthy again at wide receiver, and quarterback Dante Moore played very well down the stretch. How Stein and Lupoi function in their dual roles is worth watching, but Oregon shouldn’t have too much trouble with JMU at thunderous Autzen Stadium.
Prediction: Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The quarters kick off with a good one, as Ohio State returns to the building where it won a CFP semifinal matchup in last season’s national title run. Despite the disappointment of the Big Ten championship game, coach Ryan Day and his team can draw upon their playoff success from last season and begin the quest to repeat. A key matchup will be Ohio State’s offensive line (which allowed five sacks to Indiana after surrendering six during the entire regular season) facing a talented Miami defensive front led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. The Buckeyes will need to run the ball effectively, especially in short-yardage situations. But they can also lean on their defense to fluster Beck and the Hurricanes a bit. Expect big games from Arvell Reese, Caden Curry and others as Ohio State moves on.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
The best teams money can buy? Let’s freaking go. No two programs seem to get more flak for what they invest in their rosters than Oregon (hello, Phil Knight) and Texas Tech (howdy, Cody Campbell). But the Red Raiders and Ducks have earned their way to this stage and should deliver an incredible matchup in South Florida. Oregon has the quarterback edge with Dante Moore, who should have more wide receivers at his disposal as he faces a top-five defense in Texas Tech. The matchup of Oregon’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s defensive front should be epic. Even though Oregon has CFP experience, Texas Tech should be able to ride Shiel Wood’s defense and just enough offense to get the W.
Prediction: Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Indiana had barely capped off the most magical night in recent program history before coach Curt Cignetti turned his attention toward preparing (and humbling) his team before the CFP. The Hoosiers are AP No. 1 for the first time and riding high from their first outright Big Ten title since 1945. But going undefeated didn’t matter for Oregon in last season’s Rose Bowl, and Indiana must lock in for an opponent that is used to the biggest of stages. Yes, it’s Alabama, but the Hoosiers have the better quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, a much better running game with multiple options and a defense that can match up with the Tide, especially after the Ohio State win. Alabama will need some type of offensive balance to win this one, and I don’t see it happening against coordinator Bryant Haines’ ferocious defense. Indiana gets two touchdown passes from Mendoza and advances.
Prediction: Indiana 24, Alabama 16
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
The quarterfinals end with an SEC rematch in the Big Easy, as coach Kirby Smart tries to avoid a repeat of last season’s Sugar Bowl, when Georgia had just 10 points and 62 rushing yards in a loss to Notre Dame. Anyone think Kiffin will make the trip over from Baton Rouge to watch his former team? Quarterback Gunner Stockton was making his first career start in place of the injured Beck and should be much more comfortable this time around. Stockton had his best game of the season Oct. 18 against Ole Miss, completing 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 43-35 win. Georgia also is playing some of its best football collectively during the stretch run, especially a defense that struggled at times against Chambliss in the first meeting. I love this Ole Miss team, but I don’t see Georgia exiting the playoff so soon again.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
The best matchup of the entire CFP could come in the desert, featuring teams that have combined for three of the past four national championships. Ohio State and Georgia delivered a classic in the 2022 national semifinal, a game the Buckeyes largely controlled before falling 42-41 in Atlanta. Georgia has an experience edge at quarterback with Stockton over redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, but Ohio State’s wide receivers and overall defensive staff power could swing the game its way. I’m not expecting many points but Ohio State finds a few more, as kicker Jayden Fielding redeems himself after the Big Ten title game miss.
Prediction: Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Two of the nation’s best defenses will go at it in Atlanta with a spot in the national championship game on the line. The game also pits Mendoza, the FBS leader in touchdown passes, against arguably the nation’s top defender in Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Each scoring chance will be critical, as both defenses rank in the top five nationally in red zone touchdowns allowed. I could certainly see this going either way, but Indiana has a fairly substantial advantage at quarterback with Mendoza, and an underrated run game to provide balance. The Hoosiers move on to the natty.
Prediction: Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Shield your eyes, Paul Finebaum and Peter Burns, it’s an all-Big Ten national title game, featuring a rematch of the conference championship in Indianapolis. Mendoza will be playing in his hometown with a chance to cap a dream season on so many fronts for himself, his family and his Hoosiers team. But Ohio State will spoil the party in a game that will be a slightly higher-scoring version of what we saw at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jeremiah Smith, who grew up near Hard Rock Stadium, shows why he’s the best player in the sport with two second-half touchdown catches, as Ohio State repeats as national champion for the first time.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
The Bulldogs return to the Celebration Bowl for the second straight season and for the third time in five years, while Prairie View A&M makes its debut in the game under talented first-year coach Tremaine Jackson. South Carolina State quarterback William Atkins IV, who had 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions this season, faces a Prairie View A&M defense that allowed fewer than 10 points in five of its final seven games. The Panthers are coming in hot and win a close one behind the defense and dynamic wide receiver Jyzaiah Rockwell, who catches two touchdown passes.
Prediction: Prairie View A&M 27, South Carolina State 21
Bucked Up LA Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs. Washington Huskies
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
The Broncos didn’t return to the College Football Playoff, but they still found a way to win the Mountain West for the third consecutive season. Two years ago, I picked Boise State in this game but UCLA took down the Broncos even though coach Chip Kelly had one foot out the door. Washington is a young, talented and somewhat confounding team, but I like the Huskies to use the bowl as a springboard toward 2026. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. connects for two second-half touchdown passes as Washington pulls away late.
Prediction: Washington 37, Boise State 27
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Troy Trojans vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
The runners-up from the Conference USA (Jacksonville State) and Sun Belt (Troy) championship games meet in their home state for what should be a well-attended and fun environment in Montgomery. Troy held a second-half lead at Clemson and a really nice start to Sun Belt play, but its offense struggled to score late, including in the conference championship. Jacksonville State has been a bit more consistent and will ride running back Cam Cook, the MVP of C-USA with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, to a victory.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 24, Troy 20
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. South Florida Bulls
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Both teams had very strong seasons, taking down Power 4 opponents in Florida (South Florida) and Virginia Tech (Old Dominion). Both are also in some degree of flux. USF coach Alex Golesh left for Auburn and won’t be coaching the bowl game. Old Dominion standout quarterback Colton Joseph, a dynamic dual threat, is set to enter the transfer portal and won’t play in the bowl. South Florida has the talent edge here after spending a good chunk of the season in the AP Top 25. Both defenses are playing very well, as Old Dominion allowed a total of 26 points in its final four games. I’m going with South Florida in a somewhat lower-scoring game.
Prediction: South Florida 24, Old Dominion 17
68 Ventures Bowl
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Delaware Blue Hens
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
The game location certainly favors Louisiana, which makes its eighth consecutive bowl appearance and 13th since 2011, but is just 1-3 under coach Michael Desormeaux. Delaware, meanwhile, is going bowling in its first season as an FBS member. The Blue Hens have notable wins against UConn and Louisiana Tech but were pretty uneven this season, losing to Sam Houston on Nov. 15. The Ragin’ Cajuns won their final four games to get bowl-eligible, all by single digits, and will find a way in another tight one behind a balanced rushing attack.
Prediction: Louisiana 28, Delaware 24
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Missouri State Bears
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Coach Butch Jones leads Arkansas State into its third consecutive bowl game, and is 5-1 in his past six bowls. Missouri State, meanwhile, reached the postseason in its first year as an FBS member under promising coach Ryan Beard. Expect some points in this one, as the two defenses rank 105th (Arkansas State) and 109th (Missouri State) in SP+. Both teams have played a lot of one-score games, but Missouri State’s passing game will be the difference. Senior quarterback Jacob Clark has been very solid, and the Bears have five players with more than 420 receiving yards.
Prediction: Missouri State 34, Arkansas State 30
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
One of the top early bowl matchups features the Conference USA champ (Kennesaw State) and the MAC champ (Western Michigan), as well as two promising coaches to know in Jerry Mack and Lance Taylor. The best unit on the field is Western Michigan’s defense, as first-year coordinator Chris O’Leary has overseen a group that ranks 14th nationally in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed. Kennesaw State has been really good in close games and has a playmaker in quarterback Amari Odom, but WMU’s defense will carry the day.
Prediction: Western Michigan 28, Kennesaw State 20
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
The way these teams ended their regular seasons couldn’t have been more different. Memphis dropped its final three games and four of its final six after entering the AP Top 25 following a 6-0 start. Then, the Tigers lost coach Ryan Silverfield and others to Arkansas. NC State had a tough midseason stretch but won three of its final four games, including an upset of Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack haven’t won a bowl game since 2017 (Sun) and shouldn’t lack motivation in this one. Expect a big performance from quarterback CJ Bailey and the NC State offense.
Prediction: NC State 38, Memphis 27
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Washington State Cougars vs. Utah State Aggies
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
The Cougars are the better team, as they put a scare into two CFP participants, Ole Miss and James Madison, and a CFP hopeful in Virginia, losing the three road games by a total of eight points. But Washington State last week was rocked by the departure of coach Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State after only one year on the Palouse. The Cougars were in a similar situation last year after coach Jake Dickert’s departure and lost the Holiday Bowl. Utah State had a nice road win against Fresno State, and played better defensively down the stretch. But I don’t expect the Cougars to splinter. They finish strong.
Prediction: Washington State 26, Utah State 20
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Toledo Rockets vs. Louisville Cardinals
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Louisville’s last trip to South Florida brought its best moment of the season, a 24-21 win against then-No. 2 Miami that put the Cardinals in the mix for the ACC title and a CFP spot. Those hopes quickly faded after a three-game ACC losing streak, but Louisville crushed rival Kentucky 41-0 in the regular-season finale, and can still finish with its third consecutive season of nine or more wins under coach Jeff Brohm. Toledo, meanwhile, lost longtime coach Jason Candle to UConn and defensive coordinator Vince Kehres to Syracuse. The Rockets’ path to success is through their defense, which ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (12.2 ppg). But Louisville should be engaged enough to finish things with a win.
Prediction: Louisville 27, Toledo 16
New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
The good news for Southern Miss is it returns to the postseason for the first time since 2022 after improving from 1-11 last year to seven wins this fall. The bad news: Coach Charles Huff is headed for Memphis after his lone season in Hattiesburg, creating some uncertainty entering this game. Western Kentucky has steady leadership with Tyson Helton, who is 4-2 in bowls and has won eight or more games in each of the past five seasons. The Hilltoppers have been a bit erratic on offense but can lean on their defense in this one.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, Southern Miss 21
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Despite falling short in the Mountain West championship game, UNLV can cap a strong first season under coach Dan Mullen with its 11th win, matching last year’s Rebels and the 1984 squad for the most in team history. Ohio also had a solid season at 8-4, but the team was rocked by coach Brian Smith being placed on leave Dec. 1 with no details provided. The quarterback matchup of UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea and Ohio’s Parker Navarro should be fun, but given the uncertainty around Ohio, the Rebels get the win.
Prediction: UNLV 33, Ohio 24
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
California Golden Bears vs. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
What a fun matchup on the island, as former Hawai’i coach Nick Rolovich, leading Cal on an interim basis, faces his former team, led by record-setting Hawai’i quarterback Timmy Chang, who has done an outstanding job this season. It’s also a homecoming for Cal standout freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, an Ewa Beach native who faces a Hawai’i defense that allowed a total of 13 points in its final two regular-season wins (both at home). Will the Rainbow Warriors open the season with a win against Stanford and close with a win over Cal? They will, thanks to a last-minute field goal from the “Tokyo Toe,” Kansei Matsuzawa.
Prediction: Hawai’i 30, Cal 28
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Some Big Ten teams wouldn’t get up for a post-Christmas bowl visit to Detroit and a MAC opponent, but not Northwestern. The Wildcats were elated to get bowl-eligible with a dramatic win over Minnesota at Wrigley Field, and have performed well in the postseason, winning five consecutive bowls, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl under coach David Braun. Central Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time since 2021 and should have the crowd edge at Ford Field. But the Chippewas really struggled against Power 4 opponents Pitt (45-17) and Michigan (63-3), and Northwestern went through a much tougher schedule.
Prediction: Northwestern 28, Central Michigan 14
Rate Bowl
New Mexico Lobos vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
When it comes to outsized coaching personalities, few bowl matchups will deliver better than Jason Eck (New Mexico) and P.J. Fleck (Minnesota). Eck, a former Wisconsin lineman who is familiar with Minnesota from his playing days, won Mountain West Coach of the Year honors in his debut season with New Mexico, which tied for first in the league and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1934. The Lobos haven’t played in a bowl outside their home state since 2004, but will be well-represented in Phoenix. My lean is New Mexico, but Fleck is excellent in bowls, going 6-0 at Minnesota with a Rate Bowl victory in 2021. Tough call here, but I’m riding with the Lobos, who win their 10th game for the first time since 1982.
Prediction: New Mexico 24, Minnesota 20
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Florida International Panthers vs. UTSA Roadrunners
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
The vibes certainly seem better on the Florida International side. FIU won its final four games, including a triumph over Jacksonville State, to secure bowl eligibility under first-year coach Willie Simmons, who won the Celebration Bowl in 2023 at Florida A&M. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor, meanwhile, hasn’t looked happy this season, as the Roadrunners haven’t harnessed the momentum from some nice home wins over Tulane and East Carolina. UTSA has the talent edge with quarterback Owen McCown and others, but will it be truly motivated? I say yes.
Prediction: UTSA 37, Florida International 24
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Pitt has been quite good away from home this season, sweeping its ACC road schedule at 4-0 and enduring its only stumble against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. The Panthers seemingly have a bright future with quarterback Mason Heintschel, running back Ja’Kyrian Turner and others set to return in 2026. East Carolina had a nice season under coach Blake Harrell, sustaining its only losses against bowl teams (NC State, BYU, Tulane, UTSA). Quarterback Katin Houser blossomed for ECU with 3,300 passing yards, and will challenge Pitt’s defense. But the Panthers have a bit too much firepower in this one.
Prediction: Pitt 34, East Carolina 28
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Neither team entered the 2025 season expecting to finish it out in a baseball stadium in the Bronx, although at least Dabo Swinney is a Yankees fan. Penn State made a midseason coaching change, while Swinney has hinted at significant adjustments for the way his program operates. Both teams finished strong, though, as Clemson swept its final four games, and Penn State claimed its final three under interim coach Terry Smith, who will remain on staff with new coach Matt Campbell. Opt-outs likely will factor into this matchup, given the NFL hopefuls on both teams. The location favors Penn State, which will play hard for Smith and win a low-scoring contest.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Clemson 16
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
UConn Huskies vs. Army Black Knights
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
For the first time in the brief life of the Fenway Bowl, two teams based in the Northeast will meet at the iconic baseball venue. UConn aims for its second straight win in the game, and its first 10-win season, and will be led by interim coach Gordon Sammis, the team’s offensive coordinator, following Jim Mora’s departure to Colorado State. Army had an often-frustrating season, filled with close games, but the Black Knights finally started winning some down the stretch and will make things challenging on UConn standout Joe Fagano (3,441 pass yards, 28 touchdowns, 1 interception). But Fagano will do enough as UConn makes history.
Prediction: UConn 31, Army 23
Pop-Tarts Bowl
BYU Cougars vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
America’s favorite newer bowl game features a really fun matchup for line-of-scrimmage enthusiasts. Will motivation be a concern? BYU felt it had a playoff-worthy profile, while Georgia Tech seemingly had a CFP path before losing three of its final four regular-season games. Coaches Kalani Sitake (BYU) and Brent Key (Georgia Tech) are true believers in physical play and out-toughing your opponent. Both teams feature talented running quarterbacks in Haynes King, who is playing his final college game, and Bear Bachmeier, a true freshman with 11 rushing touchdowns. BYU has a pretty significant advantage on defense, though. Star linebacker Jack Kelly and his teammates get it done.
Prediction: BYU 29, Georgia Tech 21
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
As a child of the ’90s who considers “The Chronic” one of the best-produced albums ever, I’m not picking against a team called the Bulldogs in the Snoop Dogg Bowl. Not happening! Fresno State thrives in the postseason, winning five of its past six bowl games, and first-year coach Matt Entz won two FCS national championships at North Dakota State. To be fair, Miami won this bowl game last year, and coach Chuck Martin’s teams are always at the line of scrimmage. But Fresno State is pretty stingy on defense and has some stars, such as cornerback Simeon Harris and lineman Finn Claypool. Fresno State takes this one.
Prediction: Fresno State 24, Miami (Ohio) 17
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
North Texas Mean Green vs. San Diego State Aztecs
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
This game could come down to which team responds better to recent disappointments. North Texas lost out on a CFP berth after falling to Tulane in the AAC title game. Coach Eric Morris is moving on to Oklahoma State, and North Texas’ roster situation will be worth monitoring. Standout quarterback Drew Mestemaker made his first career start in North Texas’ last bowl game, passing for 393 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in a loss to Texas State. San Diego State returns to the same stadium where it lost its regular-season finale to New Mexico, costing itself a shot at the Mountain West title game. The matchup features a top-five scoring defense in San Diego State (12.6 ppg) against the nation’s top scoring offense in North Texas (44.8 ppg). I’ll go with defense in a tight one.
Prediction: San Diego State 31, North Texas 28
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Missouri Tigers
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Virginia hasn’t really been in this position before, having to rebound from the disappointment of losing out on its first CFP opportunity. Coach Tony Elliott must rally his team as a good opportunity awaits to finish things out with a team-record 11th victory. Missouri’s four losses came against top-10 opponents at the time, and the Tigers have one of the nation’s best running backs in Ahmad Hardy, who has 1,560 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in his first season as a Tiger. Coach Eliah Drinkwitz has won his past two bowl games with Missouri and should get a third, as the Tigers win a lower-scoring game.
Prediction: Missouri 26, Virginia 19
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
LSU Tigers vs. Houston Cougars
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
An LSU season that began with national championship aspirations ends with a quasi-road game against Houston in the Texas Bowl, which the Tigers were in — and lost — the last time they had a midseason coaching change in 2021. Houston took a big step in coach Willie Fritz’s second season, improving its win total from four to nine. The game’s key matchup could be LSU’s defense, which has been very good and will remain under the direction of coordinator Blake Baker, facing Conner Weigman, the former Texas A&M quarterback who had 2,475 passing yards and 21 touchdowns for the Cougars this fall. Ultimately, location and motivation swing the arrow toward Houston, which gets its 10th win and evens the all-time series with LSU at 2-2.
Prediction: Houston 23, LSU 17
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
App State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Kudos to Appalachian State, which said yes when many others did not, and gave Georgia Southern an opponent to close out the season. These Sun Belt teams have already played, which isn’t ideal, but their first meeting delivered some late drama before Georgia Southern prevailed 25-23. Georgia Southern’s last four wins all came by seven points or fewer, while Appalachian State lost four games by eight points or fewer. Neither team is particularly strong on defense, but Georgia Southern boasts star power on offense with wide receiver Camden Brown, who has 1,049 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, and adds to those totals in a win.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 37, Appalachian State 31
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Coach Sonny Cumbie’s Bulldogs quietly rebounded nicely this fall, ensuring their first winning season since 2019. They also will be playing just 70 miles from campus and will have a significant crowd advantage, especially against a Coastal Carolina program going through a coaching change after Tim Beck’s firing. Louisiana Tech’s offense has had a few no-shows this season, but scored a total of 76 points in its past two games and has a deep and balanced rushing contingent with four ball carriers eclipsing 450 yards.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 35, Coastal Carolina 24
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
There will be plenty of orange in Nissan Stadium, although much of it won’t be cheering for Illinois, which caps a season that began with CFP hopes, was sidetracked sharply with a 53-point loss at Indiana but still ended with wins in three of the final four regular-season contests. Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer started his career in the SEC at Ole Miss and can finish it against an SEC opponent in Tennessee, which pursued him as a transfer target this spring after Nico Iamaleava‘s exit to UCLA. The Vols never really recovered from their early loss to Georgia and have much to sort out on defense, which ranks 91st nationally in points allowed. Expect a lot of scoring in this one, but Tennessee prevails behind quarterback Joey Aguilar.
Prediction: Tennessee 37, Illinois 30
Valero Alamo Bowl
USC Trojans vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Placing too much emphasis on non-CFP bowls can be tricky, but this one feels important for Lincoln Riley and USC. The Trojans clearly improved this season, despite once again falling short of the CFP. They bring in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class and should retain several key foundational players from this year’s roster. A road-like win against TCU would mean USC’s first 10-win season since 2022, and a likely top-15 finish. TCU can somewhat quietly finish with consecutive nine-win seasons. Opt-outs will be a storyline for USC with star wideout Makai Lemon and others not playing, but the Trojans should have enough to outlast the Horned Frogs.
Prediction: USC 37, TCU 30
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Vanderbilt lobbied aggressively for CFP inclusion, even though the team never entered serious consideration. Diego Pavia and the Commodores still can deliver a strong closing argument against an Iowa team led by the nation’s No. 8 scoring defense. Few players have transformed an entire program — the way it’s viewed, the way it sees itself — as much as Pavia at Vandy the past two seasons. Iowa will provide a nice test as the Hawkeyes pushed teams such as Indiana and Oregon, even in defeat. But Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense will be too much in this one, as the Commodores secure a once-unthinkable 11th win and a possible top-10 finish.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 34, Iowa 23
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
The 2025 ACC champions and 2024 Big 12 champions meet in one of college football’s most iconic stadiums, for a Devils vs. Devils clash. Although Duke became the surprise ACC winner, it also seemingly underachieved this season, especially because quarterback Darian Mensah delivered on the hype with 3,646 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions. ASU will counter with quarterback Jeff Sims, who began his career at Georgia Tech before a challenging journey that culminated with a solid finish. The Sun Devils will need a strong defensive effort to slow down Mensah.
Prediction: Duke 35, Arizona State 31
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
The only question here is Texas’ motivation level, after missing out on the CFP for the first time since 2022, despite beating two playoff participants in No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 8 Oklahoma, as well as No. 14 Vanderbilt. The Longhorns have a much better profile than Michigan, which lost by double digits to the best three teams it faced and didn’t take advantage of a favorable schedule in quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s freshman season. Michigan capped 2024 with a surprise bowl win against an SEC opponent, but I really don’t see it happening again. Arch Manning accounts for three touchdowns, and Texas shuts down Underwood and U-M.
Prediction: Texas 28, Michigan 20
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Utah Utes
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
As Kyle Whittingham’s career winds down, a bowl win would be a fitting send-off for the future Hall of Fame coach. Whittingham dominated the postseason earlier in his career (11-1 in first 12 bowl games) but has struggled lately (five straight losses, including the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl). The Utes still should handle a Nebraska team that seems very much in flux, with its roster and coaching staff. Star running back Emmett Johnson is off to the NFL, and coach Matt Rhule has made several staff changes. Nebraska’s defense likely will have several problems with Devon Dampier. Utes roll.
Prediction: Utah 38, Nebraska 20
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Rice Owls vs. Texas State Bobcats
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
The team opt-outs opened an opportunity for Rice, which will complete its first season under coach Scott Abell and seek the team’s first bowl victory since 2014. Rice has wins over UConn and Louisiana but really struggled defensively late in the season, which Texas State should be able to expose. Quarterback Brad Jackson and wide receiver Beau Sparks connect for two touchdowns as the Bobcats pull away.
Prediction: Texas State 41, Rice 24
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
One of the last bowl games could be among the most fun, especially with the quarterback matchup of Navy’s Blake Horvath and Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby. Horvath has back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, while Sorsby finished the regular season with 2,800 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Cincinnati’s poor finish is a concern, though, as the Bearcats didn’t eclipse 24 points in any of their four losses. Navy doesn’t take these games lightly, having won six of its past seven bowl games, including last year’s Armed Forces Bowl. Mids get it done.
Prediction: Navy 27, Cincinnati 24
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
From Egg Bowl disappointment to Mayo Bowl mania, Mississippi State is in the postseason as a fill-in team. How will the Bulldogs capitalize on their surprise opportunity? Despite a 5-7 record, Mississippi State competed much better this season under coach Jeff Lebby, and has the offensive talent to give Wake Forest some problems. Wake isn’t afraid to grind out wins with its defense and run game, led by Demond Claiborne. Coach Jake Dickert has done a great job in his first season, and he’ll cap it with a mayo dump.
Prediction: Wake Forest 31, Mississippi State 27
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
A lot can happen to both rosters between now and Jan. 2, but this appears to be one of the more evenly matched pairings in bowl season. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has seen it all during his career, and can secure the team’s second 10-win season in three years — and just the fifth in team history — with a victory in San Diego. SMU will counter with Kevin Jennings, who seeks postseason redemption after his rough performance in last year’s CFP. Both teams can defend well, too, and boast standouts, such as safeties Dalton Johnson (Arizona) and Ahmaad Moses (SMU). A tough call here, but I’ll go with Arizona in a close one.
Prediction: Arizona 30, SMU 24
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Dan Wetzel
The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.
This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”
No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.
If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.
So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.
That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.
It’s a sign that it is.
A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.
At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.
It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.
Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.
Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.
College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.
Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).
The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.
The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.
Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.
If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.
Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.
The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.
Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).
Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.
Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.
Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.
The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.
A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.
Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.
Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.
Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.
Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.
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