Checking the Maple Leafs panic meter heading into Game 2 vs. the Panthers
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
New NHL playoff round. Same Toronto Maple Leafs?
There was a certain air of déjà vu Tuesday when the Leafs dropped Game 1 of their Eastern Conference second-round series 4-2 to the Florida Panthers. Toronto had just closed out Tampa Bay in Game 6 of their first-round matchup to finally advance in an NHL postseason for the first time since 2004, a two-decade stretch that included six consecutive first-round exits (and 11 straight prior losses in potential elimination games).
The Leafs didn’t start that Lightning series on a high note. In fact, they were downright embarrassed on home ice, losing Game 1 7-3. That result alone was enough to elicit groans of “here we go again” from fans and media alike who’d seen promising Toronto teams of the past wilt under the pressure of postseason expectations.
There was more of that to go around in the opening of the second round.
The Panthers whipped into Toronto on a heater, an 8-seed Cinderella team that had just dismissed the No. 1-ranked, President’s Trophy-winning Boston Bruins in an unforgettable — and unpredicted by most — first-round upset. Florida pounded its way to a 2-0 lead in Game 1 against Toronto, wasn’t rattled when the Leafs rallied at 2-2 and was opportunistic in taking control of the series from there.
The Panthers play with abandon. They’re fast, feisty and full of an energy that the famously business-wear-clad crowd at Scotiabank Arena might find unpleasant. And Florida beat the Leafs on their turf — and at their own game — to put Toronto right back where it was to open the first round: down 1-0, and now lacking home-ice advantage.
What all went wrong for the Leafs in Game 1? And how worried should Toronto be about addressing — and ultimately overcoming — those roadblocks to prevent the Panthers from pulling off another surprising series victory?
Let’s break out the first panic meter of the playoffs to dissect where the Leafs stumbled and how exactly they can thrive again.
Trouble with Tkachuk
Problem: Matthew Tkachuk is dominating all over the ice
Panic meter reading: 9/10
The Leafs must be seeing a lot of Matthew Tkachuk on video, because Florida’s first-rate forward was on Toronto like a swarm of bees in Game 1.
Tkachuk’s line with Sam Bennett and Nick Cousins is emerging as a playoff powerhouse, and that was the case Tuesday. At even strength, Tkachuk was on the ice for 26 of the Panthers’ shot attempts to only eight against. His unit controlled 75% of expected goals.
Shots on goal with Tkachuk present? 13-5. Scoring chances? 11-4. It’s no shock Tkachuk & Co. outshone John Tavares and Mitchell Marner in their matchup. Tkachuk dangled right around Marner to set up a rebound goal by Cousins to open the Game 1 scoring after the Leafs’ blown chances to do it themselves.
And that’s not all Tkachuk accomplished.
He pocketed three assists on the night and paced all skaters with nine hits. By comparison, Marner, Calle Jarnkrok, Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting and William Nylander combined for six hits. Overall, Toronto couldn’t match what the Tkachuk line was bringing whether in pace or physicality. At least not until coach Sheldon Keefe went back to the drawing board.
By the second period, Keefe had reunited Marner on a line with Matthews — dropping Nylander onto Tavares’ wing — to try tackling Tkachuk together. That combination might have slowed Tkachuk but certainly didn’t shut him down. Tkachuk still goaded Leafs’ defenseman Jake McCabe into taking a penalty late in the third period — making McCabe seemingly so focused on crunching Tkachuk into the boards he did so about 200 feet from his own net — which put the Panthers at an advantage when Brandon Montour scored their fourth insurance goal with less than eight minutes to play.
Tkachuk exemplifies all that Florida did well to keep Toronto off course: He’s fast, fierce and strikingly skilled. That combination was as potent for the Panthers in Game 1 as it proved to be drowning the Bruins. Add in a relentless forecheck that left little to no breathing room through the neutral zone and it’s not difficult to pinpoint why Toronto was frequently stymied.
Tkachuk isn’t going away, either. Keefe didn’t show his hand on lineup changes after Wednesday’s practice but did admit he wouldn’t rule out putting Marner on Matthews’ wing again to start Game 2.
“How we deal with the matchups is part of it,” Keefe said. “We spent the morning here more so going through the video and talking through things as a staff, and we’ll move on to some debates about the lines and stuff, and we’ll sort through that. We’ll probably go back and forth a bunch before tomorrow.”
Powerless power play
Problem: Leafs go 0-for-4 on the man advantage
Panic meter reading: 6/10
Toronto had a glorious chance to pounce on the Panthers. It wound up rolling over.
The Leafs earned two power plays in the first 4:46 of Game 1, when Bennett and Gustav Forsling took back-to-back penalties. Toronto generated a couple fine looks on Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky but got nothing past him. A potentially tone-setting start fizzled, knocking the wind right out of Toronto’s sails.
“The power play needs to come through,” Keefe said Wednesday. “You get two opportunities to score early in the game like we did, that’s a big difference. Not only because we’re [eventually] down a goal going into the third period, but you’re chasing the game versus us getting off to a good start early and everything sort of settles in from there. Because we were chasing it, it’s harder to manage their best players the way that we needed to win.”
Poor power-play production is rapidly becoming a trend for Toronto. The Leafs were 6-for-14 with the extra man through their first four games against Tampa Bay; that deteriorated to 0-for-4 in their final two games. It’s a small sample — even adding in the most recent Game 1 total — but a playoff series is short and sweet for a reason. Every element of what a team does (or fails to do) becomes amplified.
Florida’s penalty kill hasn’t been a juggernaut in the postseason either (64.5%), which makes the Leafs’ inability to capitalize against it all the more perplexing. Given how little open ice Toronto had to work with overall in Game 1, those man advantage moments are critical. The Leafs can’t afford another night coming up empty on special teams.
One way to avoid that is cracking the code on Bobrovsky.
Sensational Sergei
Problem: A revitalized Sergei Bobrovsky is showing Vezina Trophy-winning form
Panic meter reading: 5.5/10
Bobrovsky is back on the case in a big way.
Florida’s $10 million-per-year netminder suffered through a brutal start to the regular season that put him at 8-12-1 with an .894 save percentage and 3.32 goals-against average on Jan. 1. Bobrovsky fought from there to a better finish (16-8-2, .907% and 2.86 GAA) only to fall ill in late March and see Alex Lyon take over the crease.
Well, Lyon struggled mightily in the first round against Boston, and Bobrovsky returned to the starter’s role in Game 4 of that series. He and the Panthers haven’t looked back. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner gets stronger in every outing, and Bobrovsky put on his best playoff performance to date in Game 1 with a 36-save effort. That also marked Bobrovsky’s fourth straight win, making it his longest stretch of consecutive victories all season.
That’s potentially bad news for the Leafs.
Bobrovsky could just be hitting his stride now, fueled by his personal ups and downs and the general underdog story Florida is wielding to perfection. Toronto has been choked up in past playoff series by spectacular goaltending (Andrei Vasilevskiy did it in Game 7 last year and Game 5 this time around) and is seeing remnants of it again now from Bobrovsky. It’s also possible Bobrovsky will regress in the face of Toronto’s (anticipated) adjustments.
What the Leafs eventually did well in the first round was create havoc around Vasilevskiy and take away his eyes. It’s easier said than done, of course, to make a goalie uncomfortable — particularly when Florida is physical boxing out around the net. Still, that’s the task awaiting Toronto in Game 2 (and beyond). In order to beat Bobrovsky, the Leafs must ensure there’s not much to see in front of him.
Self-inflicted struggles
Problem: Toronto made too many unforced errors in Game 1
Panic meter reading: 4/10
Toronto need not do its streaking opponent any favors. And yet, the Leafs couldn’t help coughing up some costly plays in the series opener.
Take TJ Brodie‘s pinch gone bad that allowed Carter Verhaeghe — a 40-goal scorer in the regular season — to run free on a second-period breakaway. Boom. Suddenly it was 3-2, after Toronto had just fought back from a 2-2 hole to tie the game. That can’t happen.
“We give a breakaway to the one guy we definitely don’t want to give a breakaway to,” Keefe said after the game. “We cannot make that mistake when it’s 2-2. That’s a tough one.”
0:49
Carter Verhaeghe restores Panthers’ lead before end of 2nd period
Carter Verhaeghe gets in behind the Maple Leafs’ defense and finishes the one-on-one opportunity.
It wasn’t the Leafs’ only unfortunate miscue. Toronto was credited with 12 giveaways on the night — to Florida’s 10 — and some were especially glaring (cross-ice pass attempts intercepted in front of the Leafs’ own net). The neutral zone was a battle ground throughout Game 1, and it was Toronto often on the losing end.
“I thought we made mistakes,” Keefe said. “Credit to Florida, because of how they play, they force you to make mistakes. But I thought we made some mistakes tonight that we didn’t make in the last series. … When you make a mistake, the recovery time, it’s not really there. I think that caught us. I think our guys will adjust to that.”
Leafs’ defenseman Luke Schenn agreed with Keefe’s assessment, and acknowledged Toronto would have to clean up its own bad habits to perhaps start revealing more of Florida’s.
“A lot of the goals that were scored were based off self-inflicted [problems],” Schenn said. “We have a lot more to give. They’re a physical bunch. They’re heavy on the forecheck. In the past everyone thought of them as being deadly off the rush, but they have some big bodies out there. Like any playoff series, I expect it to get a little more physical as we go here. That’s expected.”
Assuming Toronto has identified its issues, the good news is they can be overcome. In playoff hockey, it’s adapt or die. Florida is the perfect example of that. Toronto also showed its resilience bouncing back from that Game 1 flub against Tampa Bay to win three of the next four and advance.
There’s no reason the Leafs can’t do the same things now, at least when it comes to avoiding these mistakes.
Searching for star finish
Problem: Florida (mostly) blanks Toronto’s top scorers
Panic meter reading: 3/10
What the Leafs’ core lacked in Game 1 hits it made up for in shots.
Nylander led the team with seven. Matthews put six on net. Tavares had five. The only one of those three who came away with a point, though, was Matthews, who had a terrific setup on Matthew Knies‘ beauty of a goal (the rookie’s first in the NHL).
Toronto’s other scorer was Bunting. No disrespect to either him or Knies, but if the Leafs are going to match the Panthers’ production, they’ll need those aforementioned star players to finish.
Florida’s best players were their most impactful ones in Game 1. Beyond Tkachuk’s three helpers and goals from Bennett, Cousins and Verhaeghe, the Panthers were boosted by the continued excellence of Montour. Florida’s top blueliner is having a career-best season that includes his sixth playoff goal in eight games — tied for third most ever by a defenseman in that long a stretch — to ice the Panthers’ win.
Florida knows how to slow down a team’s top-flight talents, too. In its series against Boston — in which Florida fell behind in 3-1 — the Bruins had multiple goals from Taylor Hall (4), Jake DeBrusk (3), Brad Marchand (3), Tyler Bertuzzi (2) and David Pastrnak (2) through the first four matchups.
In the final three? Pastrnak (3) and Bertuzzi (3) were the only Bruins with multiple goals.
The Leafs’ low star wattage is most likely a one-and-done situation, though. It all comes full circle on finding ways to challenge Bobrovsky and capitalize on missed chances (see: the power play). None of Matthews, Marner or Tavares scored in the Leafs’ first game against Tampa Bay either, and all three rebounded with impressive — and timely — offensive contributions the rest of Toronto’s way.
That’s one positive trend the Leafs should be able to count on continuing, as their long-awaited second-round experience rolls on.
Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is a National League All-Star replacement, giving the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander a chance to break Paul Skenes‘ record for the fewest big league appearances before playing in the Midsummer Classic.
Misiorowski was named Friday night to replace Chicago Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, who will be unavailable for the All-Star Game on Tuesday night in Atlanta because he is scheduled to start Saturday at the New York Yankees.
The 23-year-old Misiorowski has made just five starts for the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA while averaging 99.3 mph on his fastball, with 89 pitches that have reached 100 mph.
If he pitches at Truist Park, Misiorowski will make it consecutive years for a player to set the mark for fewest big league games before an All-Star showing.
Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander getting ready for his second All-Star appearance, had made 11 starts in the majors when he was chosen as the NL starter for last year’s All-Star Game at Texas. He pitched a scoreless inning.
“I’m speechless,” said a teary-eyed Misiorowski, who said he was given the news a few minutes before the Brewers’ 8-3 victory over Washington. “It’s awesome. It’s very unexpected and it’s an honor.”
Misiorowski is the 30th first-time All-Star and 16th replacement this year. There are now 80 total All-Stars.
“He’s impressive. He’s got some of the best stuff in the game right now, even though he’s a young pitcher,” said Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is a starting AL outfielder for his seventh All-Star nod. “He’s going to be a special pitcher in this game for a long time so I think he deserved it and it’s going be pretty cool for him and his family.”
Carlos Rodón, Carlos Estévez and Casey Mize were named replacement pitchers on the AL roster.
The New York Yankees‘ Rodón, an All-Star for the third time in five seasons, will replace teammate Max Fried for Tuesday’s game in Atlanta. Fried will be unavailable because he is scheduled to start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs.
In his final start before the All-Star game, Rodón allowed four hits and struck out eight in eight innings in an 11-0 victory over the Cubs.
“This one’s a little special for me,” said Rodón, an All-Star in 2021 and ’22 who was 3-8 in his first season with the Yankees two years ago before rebounding. “I wasn’t good when I first got here, and I just wanted to prove that I wasn’t to going to give up and just put my best foot forward and try to win as many games as I can.”
The Kansas City Royals‘ Estévez replaces Texas’ Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to start at Houston on Saturday night. Estévez was a 2023 All-Star when he was with the Los Angeles Angels.
Mize takes the spot held by Boston‘s Garrett Crochet, who is scheduled to start Saturday against Tampa Bay. Mize gives the Tigers six All-Stars, most of any team and tied for the franchise record.
Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia will replace Tampa Bay‘s Brandon Lowe, who went on the injured list with left oblique tightness. The additions of Estévez and Garcia give the Royals four All-Stars, matching their 2024 total.
The Seattle Mariners announced center fielder Julio Rodríguez will not participate, and he was replaced by teammate Randy Arozarena. Rodríguez had been voted onto the AL roster via the players’ ballot. The Mariners, who have five All-Stars, said Rodríguez will use the break to “recuperate, rest and prepare for the second half.”
Arozarena is an All-Star for the second time. He started in left field for the AL two years ago, when he was with Tampa Bay. Arozarena was the runner-up to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the 2023 Home Run Derby.
Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen, a first-time All-Star, is replacing Angels left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is scheduled to start Saturday night at Arizona. Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts.
San Diego added a third NL All-Star reliever in lefty Adrián Morejón, who replaces Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler. The Phillies’ right-hander is scheduled to start at San Diego on Saturday night. Morejón entered the weekend with a 1.71 ERA in 45 appearances.
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David Schoenfield
We’re past due to hand out some midseason grades, so let’s hand out some midseason grades.
As we pass the 90-game mark in the 2025 MLB season, my team of the first half isn’t the well-rounded Detroit Tigers, who do get our highest grade for owning MLB’s best record, or the explosive Chicago Cubs or Shohei Ohtani‘s Los Angeles Dodgers, but a team most baseball fans love to hate: the Houston Astros. They lost their two best players from last season and their best hitter has been injured — and they’re playing their best baseball since they won the 2022 World Series.
Let’s get to the grades. As always, we’re grading off preseason expectations, factoring in win-loss record and quality of performance, while looking at other positive performances and injuries.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Tarik Skubal is obviously the headline act, but the Tigers are winning with impressive depth across the entire roster.
Javier Baez is putting together a remarkable comeback season after a couple of abysmal years and will become the first player to start an All-Star Game at both shortstop and in the outfield. Former No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson have put together their own comeback stories, while Riley Greene has matured into one of the game’s top power hitters.
Given their deep well of prospects and contributors at the MLB level, no team is better positioned than the Tigers to add significant help at the trade deadline.
I heard someone refer to them as the Zombie Astros, which feels apropos. Alex Bregman left as a free agent, they traded Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez has been injured and has just three home runs, and the Jose Altuve experiment in left field predictably fizzled.
But here they are, fighting for the best record in the majors and holding a comfortable lead in the AL West. They’re getting star turns from Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena, while the risky decision to start Cam Smith in the majors with very little minor league experience has paid off, as he has now become their cleanup hitter.
If we ignore the COVID-19 season, the Astros look on their way to an eighth straight division title.
This could be at least a half-grade higher based on everything that has gone right: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s attention-grabbing breakout, Tucker doing everything expected after the big trade, Seiya Suzuki‘s monster power numbers and Matthew Boyd‘s All-Star turn in the rotation. The Cubs are on pace for their most wins since their World Series title season in 2016.
There have been a few hiccups, however, especially in the rotation with Justin Steele‘s season-ending injury and Ben Brown‘s inconsistency, plus rookie third baseman Matt Shaw has scuffled, and the bench has been weak aside from their backup catchers.
Still, this is a powerhouse lineup, and the Cubs will seek to improve their rotation at the deadline.
They just keep winning of late, going from 25-27 and seven games behind the Yankees on May 25 to taking over first place from the slumping Bronx Bombers, a remarkable turnaround over just 36 games. They went 27-9 over a 36-game stretch ending with their eighth win in a row on Sunday.
George Springer‘s recent surge has been fun to watch, a reminder of how good he was at his peak, and Addison Barger has been mashing over the past two months.
Some of the stats don’t add up to the Blue Jays being this good — they’ve barely outscored their opponents — but there might be more offense in the tank from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a healthy Anthony Santander, and the bullpen, a soft spot, is the easiest area to upgrade.
Their success is best summed up by the fact that Freddy Peralta is their lone All-Star, but they have a whole bunch of players who have contributed between 1 and 2 WAR.
Brandon Woodruff looked good Sunday in his first start in nearly two years, so that could be a huge boost for the second half.
I’m curious to see how Jackson Chourio performs as well. While his counting stats — extra-base hits, RBIs — are fine, his triple-slash line remains below last season, especially his OBP. He had a huge second half in 2024 (.310/.363/.552), and if he does that again, the Brewers could find themselves back in the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons.
The Rays started off slow, with a losing record through the end of April, but then went 33-22 in May and June to claw back into the AL East race — as the Rays usually do, last year being the recent exception.
Two key performers have been All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, who has a chance to become just the third player to hit 40 home runs in his age-21 season, and All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Due to the league wanting the Rays to play more home games early in the season, the July and August slate will be very road-heavy, so we’ll see how the Rays adapt to a difficult two-month stretch, especially since their pitching isn’t quite as deep as it has been in other seasons.
No, they’re not going to be the greatest team of all time. But they might win 100 games — even though Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, their huge offseason acquisitions, have combined for just two wins in 10 starts.
The lineup, of course, has been terrific, with Ohtani leading the NL in several categories and Will Smith leading the batting race. By wRC+, it’s been the best offense in Dodgers history.
If they can get some combo of Snell, Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow healthy, plus Ohtani eventually ramped up to a bigger workload on the mound, the Dodgers still loom as World Series favorites.
They are on pace for 95 wins, mainly on the strength of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, who are a combined 23-7 with 11.8 WAR. Jesus Luzardo‘s ERA is bloated due to that two-start stretch when he allowed 20 runs, but he has otherwise been solid as well.
But, overall, it hasn’t always been the smoothest of treks. The bullpen has imploded a few times and the offense has lacked power aside from Kyle Schwarber. Bryce Harper is back after missing three weeks, and they need to get his bat going. Look for some bullpen additions at the trade deadline — and perhaps an outfielder as well.
The Cardinals have been a minor surprise — perhaps even to the Cardinals themselves. St. Louis was viewing this as a rebuilding year of sorts — not that the Cardinals ever hit rock bottom and start completely over. They had a hot May, winning 12 of 13 at one point, but the offense has been fading of late, with those three straight shutout losses to Pittsburgh and six shutout losses since June 25.
The starting rotation doesn’t generate a lot of swing and miss, with both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas seeing their ERAs starting to climb. Brendan Donovan is the team’s only All-Star rep, and that kind of sums up this team: solid but without any star power. That might foretell a second-half fade.
All-Star starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, plus a dominant bullpen, have led the way, although after starting 12-4, the Giants have basically been a .500 team for close to three months now. Rafael Devers hasn’t yet ignited the offense since coming over from Boston, and the Giants have lost four 1-0 games.
These final three games at home against the Dodgers before the All-Star break will be a crucial series, as Los Angeles has slowly pulled away in the NL West.
This was an “A-plus” through June 12, when the Mets were 45-24 and owned the best record in baseball, even though Juan Soto hadn’t gotten hot. Soto finally got going in June, but the pitching collapsed, and the Mets went through a disastrous 1-10 stretch.
The rotation injuries have piled up, exacerbating the lack of bullpen depth. Recent games have been started by Justin Hagenman (who had a 6.21 ERA in Triple-A), journeyman reliever Chris Devenski, Paul Blackburn (7.71 ERA) and Frankie Montas, who has had to start even though he’s clearly not throwing the ball well. The Mets need to get the rotation healthy, but also could use more offense from Mark Vientos and their catchers (Francisco Alvarez was demoted to Triple-A).
At times it has felt like Cal Raleigh has been a one-man team with his record-breaking first half. But he will be joined on the All-Star squad by starting pitcher Bryan Woo, closer Andres Munoz and center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who made it on the strength of his defense, as his offense has been a disappointment.
The offense has been one of the best in the majors on the road, but the rotation has been nowhere near as effective as the past couple of seasons, with George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missing time with injuries. They just shut out the Pirates three games in a row, so maybe that will get the rotation on a roll.
They’re just out of the wild-card picture while hanging around .500, so we give them a decent grade since that exceeds preseason expectations. It feels like a little bit of a mirage given their run differential — their record in one-run games (good) versus their record in blowout games (not good) — and various holes across the lineup and pitching staff.
But they’ve done two things to keep them in the race. One, they hit a lot of home runs. Two, they’re the only team in the majors to use just five starting pitchers. The rotation hasn’t been stellar, but it’s been stable.
The Padres are probably fortunate to be where they are, given some of their issues. As expected, the offensive depth has been a problem.
Not as expected, Dylan Cease has struggled while Michael King‘s injury after a strong start has left them without last year’s dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation (although Nick Pivetta has been one of the best signings of the offseason). Yu Darvish just made his season debut Monday, so hopefully he’ll provide a lift.
The Padres haven’t played well against the better teams, including a 2-5 record against the Dodgers, but they did clean up against the Athletics, Rockies and Pirates, going 16-2 against those three teams.
For now, the Reds are stuck in neutral. Leave out 2022, when they lost 100 games, and it’s otherwise been a string of .500-ish seasons: 31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021, 82-80 in 2023, 77-85 in 2024 and now a similar record so far in 2025.
The hope was that Terry Francona would be a difference-maker. Maybe that will play out down the stretch, but the best hope is to get the rotation clicking on all cylinders at the same time. That means Andrew Abbott continuing his breakout performance, plus getting Hunter Greene healthy again and rookie Chase Burns to live up to the hype after a couple of shaky outings following an impressive MLB debut.
Throw in Nick Lodolo and solid Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, and this group can be good enough to pitch the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance since 2013.
The Yankees have hit their annual midseason swoon — which has been subject to much intense analysis from their disgruntled fans — and that opening weekend sweep of the Brewers, when the Yankees’ torpedo bats were the big story in baseball, now seems long ago.
Going from seven up to three back in such a short time is a disaster — but not disastrous. Nonetheless, the Yankees will have to do some hard-core self-evaluation heading to the trade deadline.
The offense wasn’t going to be as good as it was in April, when Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham and Ben Rice were all playing over their heads. So, do they need a hitter? Or with Clarke Schmidt now likely joining Gerrit Cole as a Tommy John casualty, do they need a starting pitcher? Or both?
From the book of “things we didn’t expect,” page 547: The Marlins are averaging more runs per game than the Orioles, Padres, Braves and Rangers, to name a few teams. They’re averaging almost as many runs per game as the Mets, and last time we checked, the Marlins weren’t the team to give Soto $765 million.
An eight-game winning streak at the end of June has the Marlins going toe-to-toe with the Braves for third place in the NL East even though the starting rotation has been a mess, with Sandy Alcantara on track to become just the fourth qualified pitcher with an ERA over 7.00.
Heading into the season, I thought that if any team was going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, it would be the Diamondbacks. The offense has once again been one of the best in the majors, but the pitching issues have been painful.
After the aggressive move to sign Corbin Burnes, he went down with Tommy John surgery after 11 starts. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt each have an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00. Rodriguez was better in June before a shellacking on July 4, while Gallen remains homer-prone, so it’s hard to tell if improvement is on the horizon. Their playoff odds are hovering just under 20%, so there’s a chance, but they need to get red-hot like they did last July and August.
It feels like it has been more soap opera than baseball season in Boston, with the Devers drama finally ending with the shocking trade with the Giants.
If you give added weight that this is the Red Sox, a team that should be operating with the big boys in both budget and aspirations and instead seemed to only want to dump Devers’ contract, then feel free to lower this grade a couple of notches, even if the Red Sox are close in the wild-card standings.
On the field, the heralded rookie trio of Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer hasn’t exactly clicked, with Campbell returning to the minors after posting a .902 OPS in April. A big test will come out of the All-Star break, when they play the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Twins and Astros in a tough 15-game stretch.
After last season’s surprise playoff appearance, it’s been a frustrating 2025 — although I’m not sure this result is necessarily a surprise.
There were concerns about the offense heading into the season and those concerns have proven correct. They were getting no production from their outfield, so they rushed Jac Caglianone to the majors to much hype, but he has struggled and might need a reset back in Triple-A. Even Bobby Witt Jr., as good as he has been (on pace for 7.5 WAR), has seen his OPS drop 140 points.
On the bright side, Kris Bubic emerged as an All-Star starter and Noah Cameron has filled in nicely for the injured Cole Ragans, so maybe they trade a starter for some offense.
Coming off a catastrophic 2024 season, nobody was expecting anything from the White Sox. Indeed, another 121-loss season loomed as a possibility. While they’re on pace to lose 100 again, they’ve at least played more competitive baseball thanks to their pitching.
Rookie starters Shane Smith and Sean Burke have shown promise, while rookie position players Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and now Colson Montgomery are getting their initial taste of the majors.
There has been the mix of calamity: Luis Robert Jr. has been unproductive and is probably now untradable, and former No. 3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn hit .189 and was traded to the Brewers.
The Twins are one organization that might like a do-over of the past five seasons. It feels like they’ve had the most talent in the division, but all they’ve done is squeeze out one soft division title in 2023. Now, the Tigers have passed them in talent and other factors, such as payroll flexibility.
There’s still time for the Twins to turn things around in 2025, but outside of that wonderful 13-game winning streak, they haven’t played winning baseball.
Overall, it’s been yet another bad season, despite Paul Skenes‘ brilliance. Really, do we talk enough about him? Yes, we do talk about him, but he has a 1.95 ERA through his first 42 career starts. Incredible.
Here’s an amazing thing about baseball. The Pirates are not a good team, but they recently put together one of the best six-game stretches in history. That’s not stretching the description. First, they swept the Mets — a good team — by scores of 9-1, 9-2 and 12-1. Then they swept the Cardinals — a good team — with three shutouts, 7-0, 1-0 and 5-0. They became the first team since at least 1901 to score 43 runs or more and allow four runs or fewer in a six-game stretch. And then they promptly got shut out three games in a row, making them the first to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight shutouts.
Eighteen of our 28 voters picked them to win the AL West before the season, but it’s looking more and more like the 2023 World Series might be a stone-cold fluke in the middle of a string of losing seasons. That year, nearly everyone in the lineup had a career year at the plate, and the pitching got hot at the right time.
This year’s Rangers, though, have struggled to score runs, and while some have pointed to the offensive environment at Globe Life Field, they’re near the bottom in road OPS as well. It’s been fun seeing Jacob deGrom back at a dominating level, and Nathan Eovaldi should have been an All-Star.
Put it this way: If the Rangers can somehow squeeze into the postseason, you don’t want to face the Rangers in a short series. Indeed, if any team looms as an October upset special, it might be the Rangers.
The Nationals received superlative first-half performances from James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, while CJ Abrams is on the way to his best season. But there remains a lack of overall organizational progress, which finally led to the firings on Sunday of longtime GM Mike Rizzo and longtime manager Dave Martinez. A 7-19 record in June sealed their fate, as the rotation has been bad and the bullpen arguably the worst in baseball.
Until the Nationals figure out how to improve their pitching — or, better yet, find an owner who wants to win — they will be stuck going nowhere.
That fell apart in a hurry. Sunday’s loss was Cleveland’s 10th in a row, a stretch that remarkably included five shutouts. Indeed, the Guardians have now been shut out 11 times; the franchise record in the post-dead-ball-era (since 1920) is 20 shutouts in 1968.
There’s nothing worse than watching a team that can’t score runs, so that tells you how exciting the Guardians have been. Last year, the Guardians hit exceptionally well with runners in scoring position, keeping afloat what was otherwise a mediocre offense. That hasn’t happened in 2025 (trading Josh Naylor didn’t help either). Throw in some predictable regression from the bullpen, and this season looks lost.
We can’t give this a complete failing grade due to the emergence of All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson (the Athletics’ first All-Star starter since Josh Donaldson in 2014) and slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who have a chance to finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting. Plus, we have Denzel Clarke‘s circus catches in center field.
But otherwise? Ugh. The Sacramento gamble already looks like a disaster, three months into a three-year stay. The team is drawing well below Sutter Health Park’s 14,000-seat capacity, with many recent games drawing under 10,000 fans. Luis Severino bashed the small crowds and the lack of air-conditioning.
The A’s had a groundbreaking ceremony for their new park in Vegas, renting heavy construction equipment as background props. Maybe they should have spent that money on more pitching help.
Based on preseason expectations, the Braves have clearly been the biggest disappointment in the National League — fighting the Orioles for most disappointing overall.
What’s gone wrong? They haven’t scored runs, as the offense continues its remarkable fade from a record-setting performance just two seasons ago. The collapses of Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies lead the way, with lack of production at shortstop and left field playing a big role as well. Closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled, and the team is 11-22 in one-run games. Spencer Strider hasn’t yet reached his pre-injury level and Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before going down.
The Braves haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017, but that run is clearly in jeopardy.
The Orioles have a similar record to the Braves but have played much worse, including losses of 24-2, 19-5, 15-3 and two separate 9-0 shutouts.
They will spend the trade deadline dealing away as many of their impending free agents as possible, and then do a lot of soul-searching heading into the offseason. After making the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, will this season just be a blip? While the pitching struggles aren’t necessarily a big surprise, what has happened to the offense? Are some of their young players prospects or suspects?
After two months of Cleveland Spiders-level baseball, it would be easy to make fun of the Rockies. Especially since they recently announced Walker Monfort — son of the owner — was promoted to executive VP and will replace outgoing president and COO Greg Feasel.
On the other hand, the Rockies are doing something right: They just drew 121,000 for a three-game series against the White Sox.
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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — Former White Sox lefty Mark Buehrle was forever immortalized inside Rate Field as the team unveiled a statue in his honor Friday.
Buehrle, 46, played 16 years in the majors, including the first 12 with the White Sox, who he helped win a World Series in 2005. He won 214 games and pitched 200 innings or more in 14 consecutive seasons from 2001 to 2014.
“I can’t put it into words,” Buehrle said after the unveiling. “You don’t play the game for any of this. You never think of number retirements or statues. I can’t even wrap my head around it. It doesn’t make sense.”
The statue is an action shot of him throwing a pitch.
His wife and kids were in attendance and helped pull off the cover to unveil the statue while his 2005 teammates looked on. The event kicked off a weekend reunion for the World Series team which went 11-1 in the postseason, beating the Houston Astros in four games to take home the title.
Buehrle was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, finishing fifth in Cy Young voting in 2005.
“Well-deserved,” former right fielder Jermaine Dye said of the statue. “Great teammate. Great leader. Definitely someone you want on a ballclub to lead a pitching staff.”
The White Sox rotation — led by Buehrle — threw four complete games in the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox in 2005, missing a fifth complete game by two-thirds of an inning. It’s an unheard of accomplishment in today’s game since starters infrequently go the distance.
Besides being an innings-eater on the mound, Buehrle was a fast worker — a favorite trait of his catcher, A.J Pierzynski. And he wasn’t someone who threw a lot of different pitches. He caught it and threw it without much input from behind the plate.
“He was fast,” Pierzynski said. “We had Jermaine Dye calling pitches from right field some games. We did come crazy things you wouldn’t recommend to people to do nowadays.”
Buehrle is a notoriously low-key guy who hates the spotlight but even he was moved by the team’s decision to honor him with a statue, which joins former slugger Harold Baines in the right-field concourse.
“I joked with him when I saw him,” Dye said. “I told him ‘Man it takes you getting a statue to get you out of the house.'”
Buehrle added: “I was literally nervous as can be today. This is not my comfort zone but by no means am I taking it lightly. This is incredible.”
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