Understanding the context of four years ago, when most of these seats were last contested, should help us to follow the council results as they are declared.
The Conservatives were unpopular, suffered a serious loss of councils and more than 1,300 seats.
It wasn’t Labour that inflicted such terrible losses – in fact, Labour lost seats and councils too.
It was the Liberal Democrats, Greens and different flavours of Independents that came off best.
Our estimate of the national equivalent vote saw the two main parties on just 31% apiece, the Lib Dems on 17% and assorted others taking the remaining share.
These are the baseline figures that will shape the 2023 elections – parties more unpopular now than then will lose ground, those whose popularity has grown will improve.
But these are local elections in England where candidates, parties and issues can and do matter. Expect the unexpected.
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Labour is on the attack. The latest polling puts them around 43% – a 12-point increase in popularity. But Labour seldom appeals to local voters as well as it does with survey respondents.
There’s a gap of about six points between the two measures. That still means a likely swing from Conservative to Labour and, with that, a transfer of seats and councils.
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Image: Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer has been trying to win over voters in key seats for his party
The Liberal Democrats are optimistic too. Making steady gains from Conservatives in council by-elections, and some parliamentary equivalents, the party generally defies its lowly poll ratings.
There is a nuanced attack, concentrating resources in areas determined by opportunities to unseat Conservatives at the next general election.
So, it looks like Conservatives fighting off Labour and Liberal Democrats this time around.
Not quite.
The impact of independents and small parties in 2019 means that one in 10 seats are being defended by these groups.
This muddies the picture. If one of the main parties is more successful than the other in winning seats back that will change the pattern of gains and losses. So, pay close attention to the overall position.
Sixty-two councils expect a result from midnight through to breakfast time. Most of the earliest declarers are authorities selecting a third of seats.
Even so, more than 1,700 seats, a fifth of the total, will be decided during this phase.
There are 22 Conservative-controlled councils whose fates are on the line – a loss of just two seats means Brentwood and Windsor & Maidenhead fall, three seats and North West Leicestershire and South Gloucestershire go the same way.
Basildon and Harlow, among the very earlier declarers, have Conservative majorities vulnerable to the loss of four seats. It’s significant if Harlow goes because the wards being defended by the Conservatives have large majorities.
Some Conservative councils are selecting all seats and it will take longer to process the ballots. In Dacorum, Hertfordshire, their majority may be under threat from Liberal Democrats.
A bigger headline is if Medway falls to Labour. This was a new council in 1997 but even during its landslide victory, Labour could not win it outright. The winning line is 28 seats so watch this one closely.
Image: Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been trying to find holes in his opponents’ campaigns
There are councils where no party has an overall majority and where Labour might break through.
The council is no less fascinating because of the presence of Independents. Five are seeking re-election and Labour needs to make gains here if it is to recover ground it lost in 2019.
Bolton too has its fair share of Independents, but new boundaries mean a whole council election and an opportunity for Labour to re-establish its credentials.
As dawn breaks, watch Stoke-on-Trent – a city that repeatedly elected Labour MPs until it didn’t.
The council too was solidly Labour until internal feuding paved the way for Independents and then Conservatives to gain territory.
Labour’s ambition to replace the Conservatives nationally is being tested here. A minimum requirement is that it must become the largest party. On a great night, it might take control.
As we pause for breakfast, where are we in terms of overall seat gains and losses?
The Conservatives have 700 seats to negotiate in this part of the proceedings. Net losses of 200 seats at this juncture is not a good omen. Half that number, the party will be more optimistic and accusing Labour of under-performing.
There’s a small group of 20 councils that start counting after breakfast and suggest they’ll be finished by lunchtime.
Cannock Chase has a tiny Conservative majority and it’s vulnerable. Walsall may see Conservative seats swing to Labour, but it would be a surprise if the council changed hands.
Keep an eye out for Solihull where the Greens are the main opposition on the Conservative-led council. A swing of three Conservative seats to a combination of the Greens and Liberal Democrats would signal defeat.
Labour is likely to fall short of taking control of Burnley, but the Liberal Democrats must be hoping that a couple of gains would give them overall control of Teignbridge in Devon.
Image: Leader of the Lib Dems, Sir Ed Davey, has been focusing the party’s election campaign on the rural south
More than half the 230 councils file their results in mid to late afternoon. This is a critical period.
Some 1,800 Conservative seats are in this batch – fewer than half of their 82 councils too.
There is scope for widespread swings in fortune but, at some point, it will become apparent whether there is a clear winner. If not, a prudent selection of council results is required for each party’s narrative.
As the afternoon progresses, there are councils, including Cherwell and Pendle, where defeat of a single Conservative councillor means the loss of control.
Labour will expect to make the gains that oust the Conservatives from Great Yarmouth, Erewash and possibly Dover. If Sir Keir Starmer has gone to a Labour celebration in Medway, then a little detour may be in order.
A tougher target, but tactically the bigger prize, is Swindon, which Labour last held 23 years ago.
The party has been playing for high stakes here, sending the leader to launch the party’s election campaign.
Labour trails the Conservatives by 10 seats. Five gains and the council moves into no overall control. Another and it becomes Labour’s and, with that, Swindon will be used front and centre to declare that the Conservatives are finished and a change of government is imminent.
There’s another clutch of councils in the Tees Valley coming our way. This area typified Labour’s problem in 2019, losing ground in the May elections, followed by a massive defeat in the general election months later.
Darlington, Redcar & Cleveland, and Stockton-on-Tees must show signs of Labour’s recovery.
The Greens are worthy of attention in Mid Suffolk, where they battle with the Conservatives for title of largest party. But good news here disappears if the party buckles under Labour pressure in Brighton & Hove.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats could be advancing in councils like Chichester, Elmbridge, Surrey Heath, Waverley, and Wokingham. But if the Conservatives can withstand pressure on their councillor base, then parliamentary seats in these areas become more secure.
There are around 30 councils scheduled to declare a result after teatime. Everyone involved will be mindful that nothing should get in the way of the Coronation on Saturday.
Counting will become tense in some Conservative councils, like in Staffordshire Moorlands, where the result is on a knife-edge.
The same goes for Amber Valley (gained in 2021 following Labour’s collapse), Test Valley (Conservative throughout this century), and West Berkshire (where the Liberal Democrats may return to power after a 20-year absence).
Donald Trump has laid out a 20-point peace plan for Gaza – but what does it actually say, and will it work?
The document details what the Trump administration calls a “comprehensive plan to end the Gaza conflict”, and indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are now taking place in Egypt.
Here are some of the key clauses in the peace plan – and what Sky News correspondents make of them.
Gaza ‘to be redeveloped for’ its people
The first two points say Gaza will become “a deradicalised terror-free zone” and “redeveloped for the benefit of” the enclave’s people – but the role they’ll have is unclear, says US correspondent Mark Stone.
“Beyond Hamas, there is no defined role for the Palestinians beyond vague assurances that they can take over once reform has taken place,” he explains.
What’s clear is that Hamas would have to agree to full disarmament and complete removal from the administration of Gaza.
“Like it or not, this plan cannot proceed without [Hamas’s] buy-in,” he said. “And, as has always been the case, their agreement to this plan would amount to suicide for their movement.
“The bet by the Trump administration and by the Israeli government is that Hamas is now so diminished and exhausted as an organisation that they will be forced to accept it.”
All hostages to be released
The plan states that within 72 hours of the agreement being accepted, “all hostages, alive and deceased will be returned”.
A total of 48 hostages are still being held captive by Hamas and Israel believes about 20 of them are still alive.
Israel’sPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was prepared for the implementation of the “first stage” of Mr Trump’s plan, apparently in reference to the release of hostages.
Image: Israeli protesters in Tel Aviv calling for a ceasefire last month. Pic: AP
“I think Netanyahu’s gamble is that he will be seen as a statesman,” he said, “if he can bring home the hostages and do that deal, stop the casualties being suffered by the Israeli military, [and] stop the increasing… anger over the number of people who are being killed by Israeli bombardments in Gaza.”
The draft agreement states that once the hostages have been released, Israel will release 1,950 Palestinian prisoners, including all women and children who were detained after 7 October 2023.
“For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans,” it adds.
Hamas released a statement agreeing to release the Israeli hostages “both living and dead”.
It also said it wanted to engage in negotiations to discuss further details of the president’s peace plan, including handing over “administration of the enclave to a Palestinian body of independent technocrats”.
However, other aspects of the 20-point document, it warned, would require further consultation among Palestinians.
Mr Trump shared the response on his social media, and he and his administration labelled it as Hamas accepting the plan.
But Stone said it was “by no means an unequivocal acceptance of the 20-point plan,” and rather a “yes, but”.
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2:03
Are we at the ‘end game’ of the Gaza war?
What are the other key points?
Some of the other significant guarantees include a promise that nobody will be forced to leave the Gaza Strip, and that Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza.
The document also states that full aid will “proceed without interference […] through the UN, its agencies, the Red Crescent and other international institutions”.
Tony Blair to be on the ‘Board of Peace’
The plan states that a temporary governing board will be put in charge of Gaza – and just one person has so far been confirmed to join Donald Trump on what he’s calling the ‘Board of Peace’: Sir Tony Blair.
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2:09
Blair to be on Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’
“Sir Tony Blair has been one of the key architects of this peace plan,” he said. “It’s a Blair blueprint to a large extent, he went to the White House to discuss it in August.”
Sir Tony “gets on well” with Mr Netanyahu, he added. The former British prime minister’s experience in the Middle East goes back nearly 30 years and in the 1990s he was involved in talks with then Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
“From President Trump’s point of view, and indeed Benjamin Netanyahu’s, it makes sense because [Blair] is an experienced negotiator and go-between power broker in the Middle East,” Craig said.
‘Still huge unknowns’
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“The first bit is about achieving a ceasefire and bringing back the hostages, the second is about achieving a comprehensive peace in the wider region and the distant prospect of Palestinian statehood,” he says.
“It goes without saying that ushering in a ceasefire, while not easy, is far more achievable than resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict completely.”
He says this is clearly a “significant moment” in the Middle East and that both sides’ willingness to negotiate over the plan is giving it “real momentum”.
But he also says there are still “huge unknowns”.
“Trump’s 20-point plan is ambitious, but vague,” he says. “It leaves many questions unanswered about borders, reconstruction, governance and security, as well as Palestinian self-determination. All of them radioactive issues that have destroyed previous efforts for peace.”
The Taliban’s chief spokesman has firmly rejected Donald Trump’s push to “take back” Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan.
In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Zabihullah Mujahid said: “Afghans will never allow their land to be handed over to anyone under any circumstances.”
But the senior Taliban member said his government had held talks with the US about reopening the Afghan embassy in Washington DC and the US embassy in Kabul.
He said: “We have discussed this matter and we wish to see the embassies reopened both in Kabul and in Washington.”
‘Several countries privately recognise Taliban’
It is four years since the Taliban swept to power and only Russia has formally recognised their government.
But Mr Mujahid denied that they have a “legitimacy problem”, claiming that many countries privately had acknowledged their leadership.
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“It is not only Russia that has openly recognised the Islamic Emirate. There are several other countries that have extended recognition, though not publicly.”
The Taliban government has increasingly placed restrictions on women and girls, and girls over the age of 12 still cannot attend school.
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for two of the Taliban’s top leaders, including the Supreme Leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, accusing them of persecuting women and girls in Afghanistan.
Image: Sky’s Cordelia Lynch speaks to Zabihullah Mujahid
‘Can’t promise we will reopen secondary schools for girls’
Mr Mujahid, a close confidante of the Supreme Leader, would not commit to whether girls will ever be able to return to the classroom, though. “I cannot make any promises in this regard,” he stated.
When the Taliban took power, the ministry of education said the closure of schools would be temporary and vowed that they would be reopened once it put in place policies that would ensure compliance with “principles of Islamic law and Afghan culture”.
Four years down the line, however, there is still no plan to open the doors of secondary schools to girls in the foreseeable future or allow young women access to higher education.
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6:09
Sky visits Afghan ward where babies are fighting for their lives
Taliban still can’t explain 48-hour internet shutdown
Recently, Afghanistan was thrust into a 48-hour internet shutdown causing widespread disruption with banks closed, airlines unable to operate and ordinary Afghans prevented from going online or using their phones.
The Taliban’s spokesman said he still was not aware of why the blackout occurred and would not comment on whether the government had ordered it.
“We have not received any official communication from the ministry of telecommunications. Therefore, we are not in a position to comment on the matter,” he said.
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0:54
Sky News in Kabul as internet returns
But one service provider in Afghanistan said in a customer email that the shutdown was ordered by the government.
Human rights activists claimed the shutdown was an act of censorship that harmed ordinary Afghans, including the women and girls now reliant on studying online. It followed previous restrictions on access to the internet in certain provinces in Afghanistan – aimed at “preventing immorality”.
Image: Cordelia Lynch speaks to the Taliban’s main spokesman
Country has ‘visible signs of recovery’
Afghanistan is in the middle of an economic crisis and has experienced severe droughts.
But in a wide-ranging interview, Zabihullah Mujahid said the country had enjoyed “relative peace and stability under a unified government” with more security and “visible signs of economic recovery”.
But malnutrition has soared in the country, and 90% of children under five are in food poverty, according to UNICEF.
Mr Mujahid said it was the “result of decades of conflict and two major invasions that devastated Afghanistan’s infrastructure and economy”.
Massive aid cuts have also played a part. But some women in a clinic for malnourished children in Badakhshan in northeastern Afghanistan told Sky News that the government was also in part to blame, as mothers could no longer work and earn money to feed their babies.
Mr Mujahid rejected this as a common sentiment, claiming that “men remain the primary providers” in the “vast majority of households”.
Women are no longer able to train to be doctors or nurses under the Taliban. The UN condemned the policy as “profoundly discriminatory, short-sighted and puts the lives of women and girls at risk in multiple ways”. But the spokesman insisted the country already had “a sufficient number of female doctors”.
It highlights once again the gulf between the Taliban’s policies and the rest of the world. But the leadership are confident that the country has improved under their rule and that they’re building enduring relationships with other nations that will ensure their success.
“We have qualified Islamic scholars who will deliberate on this matter and find an appropriate solution in accordance with Islamic Sharia,” he said.
You can see, feel, hear the distress in Badakhshan’s Provincial Hospital in Afghanistan.
Warning: This article contains content some readers may find distressing.
The halls are heavy with the sound of crying babies. The rooms, full of malnourished children, many two to a bed. Their frail, fragile bodies expose their wasting bones, with some so weak they’re dependent on oxygen tanks to breathe.
Afghanistan is facing an unprecedented crisis of hunger. More than 4.7 million women and children require urgent treatment for malnutrition, according to the UN. And 90% of children under the age of five are in food poverty.
The hospital team in Badakhshan, in the northeast of the country, are doing all they can to keep the children alive. But increasing numbers are dying.
In the last three months alone, roughly one baby died every three days here. Fifty-three have passed away so far this year – that’s a 50% increase on the same time last year.
Faisal is 12 months old. He’s severely malnourished and has acute diarrhoea too. But like many on this ward, he has other serious complications.
Among these is hydrocephalus, a condition that causes water to gather around his brain. His poor mother is so exhausted, she’s lying on the floor by his bed.
Image: Baby Faisal is only 12 months old
As she sits down to speak with us, she reveals she has already lost three children to malnutrition.
“I am worried about him and what might come next,” she tells me.
“I’ve already lost three of my children. My first daughter died at eight years old. Two more of my children passed away when they were two-and-a-half years old.”
The ward is full of lost-looking eyes, dimmed by hunger.
Image: Baby Asma is malnourished
A horrifying thing to watch
Asma is 13 months old. But she weighs little over nine pounds (4kg) – less than half of what she should.
Doctors fear she might not survive the night. But she’s put on oxygen and by the morning, she thankfully starts to improve.
“I’m really afraid,” her mother Khadijah says as her eyes fill.
“Of course I’m afraid, I’ve cried so much. I’m so thankful to the doctors, they’ve kept my baby alive. I’m so grateful to them,” she says.
Image: Asma’s mother says she is really afraid for her child
But it’s touch and go for her daughter, and there are long periods when her chest fails to rise and fall.
It’s a horrifying thing to watch – imagine as a parent sitting day and night, wondering whether the next breath might be her last.
There is a stream of desperate cases coming through the doors here.
Image: Masouda’s family travelled 13 hours to get her help
Today, there are 20 babies to just 12 beds. Sometimes, it is even more crowded.
There are suddenly two new arrivals. One of them, little Masouda. Her family travelled 13 hours to get here – spending what little they had left.
She, too, has to be quickly placed on oxygen and she’s painfully thin. Doctors tell us they fear she won’t make it.
The team are doing an incredible job during a hugely demanding time. But they need more staff, more medicine, more equipment.
Hospitals and health clinics across Afghanistan have suffered major funding cuts. The US, which was Afghanistan’s biggest aid donor, this year pulled almost all of its funding to the country. And the Taliban’s restrictions on women and girls have proved a major barrier for many international donors.
Image: Women gather in Badakhshan Provincial Hospital in Afghanistan
It’s having a direct impact on children’s chances of survival.
Daniel Timme, chief of communication at UNICEF, said: “The nutrition situation for children in Afghanistan is very serious and the numbers speak for themselves. Over 3.5 million children under five are acutely malnourished, including 1.4 million suffering life-threatening forms of wasting.
“It must be clear to everyone: when funding drops as we are seeing it now in a context with such high levels of malnutrition, preventable child deaths rise.”
A vital lifeline
In rural areas, poverty is as extreme as the landscape, and help for families with malnourished children is getting harder to reach.
Layaba Health Clinic is a vital lifeline.
The waiting room is full of mothers looking for medical assistance for their babies. Some women here tell us the Taliban’s restrictions on them working and earning money have also played a part, making it harder for them to feed their families.
“They are to blame,” one woman says with surprising candor.
“Every girl had her own dreams. I wanted to be a doctor. I took my responsibility for my children seriously. And I wanted to support my husband too.”
Image: A baby looks up at her mother at Badakhshan Provincial Hospital
Another woman tells us she earned more than her husband as a teacher, but now finds herself unable to contribute financially.
The Taliban’s response
In an exclusive interview with Sky News, the Taliban’s spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said the malnutrition crisis was the product of decades of conflict.
“We have had to start from zero to rebuild and restore our national resources. The Islamic Emirate is making every possible effort to address these challenges.”
Mr Mujahid said his government had a five-year plan to “tackle malnutrition, unemployment, and other pressing social issues”.
In response to the complaints of the women we spoke to, he said that men in the “vast majority” of Afghan families were the breadwinners and claimed the Islamic Emirate had made “significant efforts to promote vocational opportunities for women”.
Image: Community health worker Harira
But under the Taliban, women can no longer train to be doctors, nurses and midwives. And in remote villages, community workers like Harira are often the only lifeline – a project part-funded by UNICEF.
She goes door-to-door carrying baby scales, carrying out check-ups, trying to teach families about what to feed their children and when needed, get them to clinics and hospitals for treatment.
It saved Ramzia’s son’s life.
She had measles when she was pregnant and her son Faisal was very underweight.
“His legs and hands were as small as my fingers. Now he’s much better,” Harira says – beaming as she delights in the weight he has now put on.
“I was afraid I’d lose him,” Ramzia says. “He was so weak. But Harira came here and taught me how to feed him and give him milk when he needed it.”
Keeping children alive in this climate is a battle.
Nasrullah and Jamilah, who live on the outskirts of Fayzabad, are holding their two-month-old twins.
Image: Nasrullah and Jamilah at the grave of their daughter, Shukriya
But they’re also in the throes of grief – on a journey to the grave of the baby they lost only a month ago. Her name was Shukriya. She was 18 months old.
“She was our child, we loved her. I will never forget her, so long as I’m alive. We really tried, we went to the doctors for check-ups, for ultrasounds, for blood work – we tried our very best. But none of it could save her.”
Both parents say they feared their twins could also face the same fate. Shukriya’s grave is covered with one of her babygrows. It is haunting to see. And there are other little graves next to hers.
Deaths aren’t documented in a lot of these communities. But locals tell us more and more children are dying because of malnutrition. A silent, searing loss that is spreading.