Local elections: A guide through the night – and the key councils to watch

Published

2 years ago

May 4, 2023

admin

Understanding the context of four years ago, when most of these seats were last contested, should help us to follow the council results as they are declared.

The Conservatives were unpopular, suffered a serious loss of councils and more than 1,300 seats.

It wasn’t Labour that inflicted such terrible losses – in fact, Labour lost seats and councils too.

It was the Liberal Democrats, Greens and different flavours of Independents that came off best.

Our estimate of the national equivalent vote saw the two main parties on just 31% apiece, the Lib Dems on 17% and assorted others taking the remaining share.

These are the baseline figures that will shape the 2023 elections – parties more unpopular now than then will lose ground, those whose popularity has grown will improve.

But these are local elections in England where candidates, parties and issues can and do matter. Expect the unexpected.

Labour is on the attack. The latest polling puts them around 43% – a 12-point increase in popularity. But Labour seldom appeals to local voters as well as it does with survey respondents.

There’s a gap of about six points between the two measures. That still means a likely swing from Conservative to Labour and, with that, a transfer of seats and councils.

The Liberal Democrats are optimistic too. Making steady gains from Conservatives in council by-elections, and some parliamentary equivalents, the party generally defies its lowly poll ratings.

There is a nuanced attack, concentrating resources in areas determined by opportunities to unseat Conservatives at the next general election.

So, it looks like Conservatives fighting off Labour and Liberal Democrats this time around.

Not quite.

The impact of independents and small parties in 2019 means that one in 10 seats are being defended by these groups.

This muddies the picture. If one of the main parties is more successful than the other in winning seats back that will change the pattern of gains and losses. So, pay close attention to the overall position.

Sixty-two councils expect a result from midnight through to breakfast time. Most of the earliest declarers are authorities selecting a third of seats.

Even so, more than 1,700 seats, a fifth of the total, will be decided during this phase.

There are 22 Conservative-controlled councils whose fates are on the line – a loss of just two seats means Brentwood and Windsor & Maidenhead fall, three seats and North West Leicestershire and South Gloucestershire go the same way.

Basildon and Harlow, among the very earlier declarers, have Conservative majorities vulnerable to the loss of four seats. It’s significant if Harlow goes because the wards being defended by the Conservatives have large majorities.

Some Conservative councils are selecting all seats and it will take longer to process the ballots. In Dacorum, Hertfordshire, their majority may be under threat from Liberal Democrats.

A bigger headline is if Medway falls to Labour. This was a new council in 1997 but even during its landslide victory, Labour could not win it outright. The winning line is 28 seats so watch this one closely.

There are councils where no party has an overall majority and where Labour might break through.

Hartlepool saw an unusual parliamentary by-election in 2021. Only a handful of times since the war has the party of government captured a seat from the opposition.

The council is no less fascinating because of the presence of Independents. Five are seeking re-election and Labour needs to make gains here if it is to recover ground it lost in 2019.

Bolton too has its fair share of Independents, but new boundaries mean a whole council election and an opportunity for Labour to re-establish its credentials.

As dawn breaks, watch Stoke-on-Trent – a city that repeatedly elected Labour MPs until it didn’t.

The council too was solidly Labour until internal feuding paved the way for Independents and then Conservatives to gain territory.

Labour’s ambition to replace the Conservatives nationally is being tested here. A minimum requirement is that it must become the largest party. On a great night, it might take control.

As we pause for breakfast, where are we in terms of overall seat gains and losses?

The Conservatives have 700 seats to negotiate in this part of the proceedings. Net losses of 200 seats at this juncture is not a good omen. Half that number, the party will be more optimistic and accusing Labour of under-performing.

There’s a small group of 20 councils that start counting after breakfast and suggest they’ll be finished by lunchtime.

Cannock Chase has a tiny Conservative majority and it’s vulnerable. Walsall may see Conservative seats swing to Labour, but it would be a surprise if the council changed hands.

Keep an eye out for Solihull where the Greens are the main opposition on the Conservative-led council. A swing of three Conservative seats to a combination of the Greens and Liberal Democrats would signal defeat.

Labour is likely to fall short of taking control of Burnley, but the Liberal Democrats must be hoping that a couple of gains would give them overall control of Teignbridge in Devon.

More than half the 230 councils file their results in mid to late afternoon. This is a critical period.

Some 1,800 Conservative seats are in this batch – fewer than half of their 82 councils too.

There is scope for widespread swings in fortune but, at some point, it will become apparent whether there is a clear winner. If not, a prudent selection of council results is required for each party’s narrative.

As the afternoon progresses, there are councils, including Cherwell and Pendle, where defeat of a single Conservative councillor means the loss of control.

Labour will expect to make the gains that oust the Conservatives from Great Yarmouth, Erewash and possibly Dover. If Sir Keir Starmer has gone to a Labour celebration in Medway, then a little detour may be in order.

A tougher target, but tactically the bigger prize, is Swindon, which Labour last held 23 years ago.

The party has been playing for high stakes here, sending the leader to launch the party’s election campaign.

Labour trails the Conservatives by 10 seats. Five gains and the council moves into no overall control. Another and it becomes Labour’s and, with that, Swindon will be used front and centre to declare that the Conservatives are finished and a change of government is imminent.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

There’s another clutch of councils in the Tees Valley coming our way. This area typified Labour’s problem in 2019, losing ground in the May elections, followed by a massive defeat in the general election months later.

Darlington, Redcar & Cleveland, and Stockton-on-Tees must show signs of Labour’s recovery.

The Greens are worthy of attention in Mid Suffolk, where they battle with the Conservatives for title of largest party. But good news here disappears if the party buckles under Labour pressure in Brighton & Hove.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats could be advancing in councils like Chichester, Elmbridge, Surrey Heath, Waverley, and Wokingham. But if the Conservatives can withstand pressure on their councillor base, then parliamentary seats in these areas become more secure.

There are around 30 councils scheduled to declare a result after teatime. Everyone involved will be mindful that nothing should get in the way of the Coronation on Saturday.

Counting will become tense in some Conservative councils, like in Staffordshire Moorlands, where the result is on a knife-edge.

The same goes for Amber Valley (gained in 2021 following Labour’s collapse), Test Valley (Conservative throughout this century), and West Berkshire (where the Liberal Democrats may return to power after a 20-year absence).

World

The moment Vladimir Putin has craved – a red carpet from Donald Trump for a man with blood on his hands

Published

57 mins ago

August 15, 2025

admin

The moment Vladimir Putin has craved - a red carpet from Donald Trump for a man with blood on his hands

All eyes were on Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as they met for the first time in more than six years, the Russian president visiting the US for high-stakes talks that could reshape the war in Ukraine.

The two leaders greeted each other with a handshake after stepping off their planes at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, Alaska – and a smiling Trump even applauded Putin as he approached him on a red carpet that had been laid out.

It is exactly the moment Putin has craved, writes Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett. The Russian leader has been welcomed on to US soil as an equal for a meeting of great powers.

Trump-Putin summit – latest updates

The red carpet, the handshake, the flypast – only North Korea would give an indicted war criminal a greeting like this.

It marks the end of his isolation from the West in the most spectacular fashion.

Instead of sanctions, Trump has rewarded the Russian president with the equivalent of a state visit.

The pariah looks more like a partner.

US correspondent James Matthews, reporting from the ground in Alaska, describes the meeting on the tarmac as “extraordinary”.

There was the red carpet and more for a man with blood on his hands, he writes. Putin – aggressor, pariah and wanted for war crimes.

Quite the CV for a man who was applauded on to the airbase by his host, the US president.

It couldn’t have looked more cordial – a superpower moment with a smile and a shake between the men who hold peace in their hands.

If that wasn’t enough, there followed a military flypast to dress the spectacle.

A smiling Putin seemed duly impressed, but what it says about the power dynamic in the relationship will trouble onlookers in Ukraine – and one moment they may have found particularly galling.

Posing for photographs with Trump before waiting media, Putin was asked: “Will you stop killing civilians?”

To which he smiled, and gave it a deaf ear

World

Ukraine vows to continue drone attacks until there’s a peace deal

Published

6 hours ago

August 15, 2025

admin

Ukraine vows to continue drone attacks until there's a peace deal

Ukraine says there will be no let-up in its punishing long-range drone attacks on Russia until Moscow agrees to peace.

The warning comes ahead of Vladimir Putin meeting Donald Trump in Alaska.

Ukraine war latest: Trump prepares for summit with Putin

It was made in a rare interview with one of the key commanders of Ukraine’s drone forces.

We met in an undisclosed location in woods outside Kyiv. Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol is a wanted man.

There is a quiet, understated but steely resolve about this man hunted by Russia. His eyes are piercing and he speaks with precision and determination.

His drone units have done billions of dollars of damage to Russia’s economy and their range and potency is increasing exponentially.

“Operations”, he said euphemistically, “will develop if Russia refuses a just peace and stays on Ukrainian territory”.

“Initially, we had a few drones a month, capable of striking targets 100 to 250 kilometres away. Today, we have drones capable of flying 3,000 to 4,000 kilometres, and that’s not the limit, it’s constrained only by fuel supply, which can be increased”.

His teams had just carried off one of their most complicated and most devastating strikes yet. A massive fire was raging in an oil refinery in Volgograd, or Stalingrad as it was once called.

“If the refinery is completely destroyed, it will be one of the largest operations conducted,” Brigadier General Shchygol said. “There have been other major targets too, in Saratov and Akhtubinsk. Those refineries are now either non-operational or functioning at only 5% of capacity.”

Oil is potentially Vladimir Putin’s Achilles heel. So much of his economy and war effort is dependent on it. Donald Trump could cripple Russia tomorrow if he sanctioned it but so has appeared reluctant to do so, a source of constant frustration for the Ukrainians.

Military activity on both sides has increased as diplomacy has picked up pace.

In another long-range attack, Ukraine says it hit the port of Olya in Russia’s Astrakhan region, striking a ship loaded with drone parts and ammunition sent from Iran.

But on the ground, Russian forces have made a surprise advance of more than 15km into Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine says the intrusion can be contained, but it adds to fears about its ability to hold back the Russians along the 1000-mile frontline.

Russia launches almost nightly drone attacks on Ukraine’s cities, killing civilians and striking residential targets.

General Yuriy says Ukraine picks targets that hurt Russia’s war effort, and it is constantly honing its capability.

“Each operation”, he says, “uses multiple types of drones simultaneously, some fly higher, others lower. That is our technical edge.”

How satisfying, I asked, was it to watch so much enemy infrastructure go up in smoke? He answered with detached professionalism.

“It does not bring me pleasure, war can never be a source of enjoyment. Each of us has tasks we could fulfil in peacetime. But this is war; it doesn’t bring satisfaction. However, it benefits the state and harms our enemy.”

Whatever happens in Alaska, General Yuriy and his teams will continue pioneering drone warfare, hitting Vladimir Putin’s economy where it hurts most.

World

India ‘will not tolerate’ nuclear blackmail, says prime minister Narendra Modi in warning to Pakistan on Independence Day

Published

6 hours ago

August 15, 2025

admin

India 'will not tolerate' nuclear blackmail, says prime minister Narendra Modi in warning to Pakistan on Independence Day

India’s Prime Minister has warned Pakistan it will not succumb to, or tolerate, nuclear blackmail.

In Narendra Modi’s 12th consecutive speech from the ramparts of Delhi’s iconic Red Fort, he addressed the nation celebrating its 79th Independence Day from colonial Britain.

He laid emphasis on ‘Atmanirbhar’, or self-reliance, in defending India by increasing and developing a more powerful weapons system for security.

Mr Modi said: “India has decided, we will not tolerate nuclear blackmail. We have established a new normal. Now we will not distinguish between terrorists and those who nurture and support terrorists. Both are enemies of humanity”

This comes on the back of the conflict in May after the killing of 26 people by terrorists in Pahalgam, Kashmir. In retaliation, India launched attacks on terrorist infrastructure across the border.

Pakistan retaliated, which quickly escalated into both countries launching a series of missiles, armed drones and heavy gunfire on each other.

After four days of fighting, a ceasefire was agreed to between the two nuclear-armed neighbours that have fought wars and many skirmishes over decades.

US President Donald Trump intervened saying: “I know the leaders of Pakistan and India. I know [them] very well. And they’re in the midst of a trade deal, and yet they’re talking about nuclear weapons… this is crazy.

“I’m not doing a trade deal with you if you’re going to have war, and that’s a war that spreads to other countries, you’ll get nuclear dust. When they start using nuclear weapons, that stuff blows all over the place and really bad things happen.”

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif immediately thanked the American president for the ceasefire and bringing about peace and stability in the region, also recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize as a genuine peacemaker and his commitment to conflict resolution.

Mr Modi’s government is yet to acknowledge President Trump’s intervention and maintains that the Pakistani military initiated the ceasefire process and India agreed to halt military action.

In parliament, India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said: “There was no leader… nobody in the world that asked India to stop its operations. This is something the prime minister also said. There was no linkage of trade in any of these conversations and there was no talk between the prime minister and President Trump.”

Mr Modi’s speech is an audit of the year gone by and his future plans of strengthening the economy and of self-reliance in the face of very high tariffs imposed by President Trump for buying discounted Russian oil.

He spoke of bringing in structural reforms, welfare schemes for farmers, women’s empowerment, employment, technology, clean energy and the green industry, but also raised concerns about rising obesity levels.

India has the fourth largest economy in the world and is expected to be the third largest before Mr Modi’s current term ends in 2029.

Although when it comes to GDP per capita income, which serves as an indicator of individual prosperity, India is ranked 144 out of 196 countries.

The big economy illusion of GDP size has little to do with the well-being and fortune of its people, something the government refuses to acknowledge.

In its 2024 report, Paris-based World Inequality Lab said the inequality in India now is worse than under British rule. The research stated that 1% of the wealthiest Indians hold 40% of its wealth and enjoy a quarter of the nation’s income.

Comparing the ‘British Raj’ to the ‘Billionaire Raj’, the study said there are now 271 billionaires in the country and 94 new ones were added the previous year. The rise of top-end inequality in India has been particularly pronounced in terms of wealth concentration in the Modi years between 2014-15 and 2022-23.

With over 1.46 billion people, India is the most populous country, making up 17.8% of the global population.

More than half the country is under 30, and it has one of the lowest old-age dependency ratios, enabling productivity, higher savings and investment.

A key challenge for the government is to match employment with its growing young population. It’s even more critical as artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used in production and services, eating into jobs.

Last week, President Trump levied an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, taking the total tariff level to over 50% and hitting Indian manufacturing and trade.

“I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together,” the president said.

Since the Ukraine war, India has been buying discounted Russian crude and its imports have risen from 3% in 2021 to about 35% to 40% in 2024.

Defending its stance, India says it does so for its energy security and to protect millions of its citizens from rising costs.

It’s a national day of celebration with patriotic fervour all around, but also a grim reminder of the tragedy of partition – the trauma of which still haunts its people.