Local elections: A guide through the night – and the key councils to watch
Understanding the context of four years ago, when most of these seats were last contested, should help us to follow the council results as they are declared.
The Conservatives were unpopular, suffered a serious loss of councils and more than 1,300 seats.
It wasn’t Labour that inflicted such terrible losses – in fact, Labour lost seats and councils too.
It was the Liberal Democrats, Greens and different flavours of Independents that came off best.
Our estimate of the national equivalent vote saw the two main parties on just 31% apiece, the Lib Dems on 17% and assorted others taking the remaining share.
These are the baseline figures that will shape the 2023 elections – parties more unpopular now than then will lose ground, those whose popularity has grown will improve.
But these are local elections in England where candidates, parties and issues can and do matter. Expect the unexpected.
Labour is on the attack. The latest polling puts them around 43% – a 12-point increase in popularity. But Labour seldom appeals to local voters as well as it does with survey respondents.
There’s a gap of about six points between the two measures. That still means a likely swing from Conservative to Labour and, with that, a transfer of seats and councils.
Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer has been trying to win over voters in key seats for his party
The Liberal Democrats are optimistic too. Making steady gains from Conservatives in council by-elections, and some parliamentary equivalents, the party generally defies its lowly poll ratings.
There is a nuanced attack, concentrating resources in areas determined by opportunities to unseat Conservatives at the next general election.
So, it looks like Conservatives fighting off Labour and Liberal Democrats this time around.
Not quite.
The impact of independents and small parties in 2019 means that one in 10 seats are being defended by these groups.
This muddies the picture. If one of the main parties is more successful than the other in winning seats back that will change the pattern of gains and losses. So, pay close attention to the overall position.
Read more:
Local elections 2023: All you need to know
How to cut through the political spin as the results come in
Voters have one pressing issue on their minds – analysis
Sixty-two councils expect a result from midnight through to breakfast time. Most of the earliest declarers are authorities selecting a third of seats.
Even so, more than 1,700 seats, a fifth of the total, will be decided during this phase.
There are 22 Conservative-controlled councils whose fates are on the line – a loss of just two seats means Brentwood and Windsor & Maidenhead fall, three seats and North West Leicestershire and South Gloucestershire go the same way.
Basildon and Harlow, among the very earlier declarers, have Conservative majorities vulnerable to the loss of four seats. It’s significant if Harlow goes because the wards being defended by the Conservatives have large majorities.
Some Conservative councils are selecting all seats and it will take longer to process the ballots. In Dacorum, Hertfordshire, their majority may be under threat from Liberal Democrats.
A bigger headline is if Medway falls to Labour. This was a new council in 1997 but even during its landslide victory, Labour could not win it outright. The winning line is 28 seats so watch this one closely.
Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been trying to find holes in his opponents’ campaigns
There are councils where no party has an overall majority and where Labour might break through.
Hartlepool saw an unusual parliamentary by-election in 2021. Only a handful of times since the war has the party of government captured a seat from the opposition.
The council is no less fascinating because of the presence of Independents. Five are seeking re-election and Labour needs to make gains here if it is to recover ground it lost in 2019.
Bolton too has its fair share of Independents, but new boundaries mean a whole council election and an opportunity for Labour to re-establish its credentials.
As dawn breaks, watch Stoke-on-Trent – a city that repeatedly elected Labour MPs until it didn’t.
The council too was solidly Labour until internal feuding paved the way for Independents and then Conservatives to gain territory.
Labour’s ambition to replace the Conservatives nationally is being tested here. A minimum requirement is that it must become the largest party. On a great night, it might take control.
As we pause for breakfast, where are we in terms of overall seat gains and losses?
The Conservatives have 700 seats to negotiate in this part of the proceedings. Net losses of 200 seats at this juncture is not a good omen. Half that number, the party will be more optimistic and accusing Labour of under-performing.
There’s a small group of 20 councils that start counting after breakfast and suggest they’ll be finished by lunchtime.
Cannock Chase has a tiny Conservative majority and it’s vulnerable. Walsall may see Conservative seats swing to Labour, but it would be a surprise if the council changed hands.
Keep an eye out for Solihull where the Greens are the main opposition on the Conservative-led council. A swing of three Conservative seats to a combination of the Greens and Liberal Democrats would signal defeat.
Labour is likely to fall short of taking control of Burnley, but the Liberal Democrats must be hoping that a couple of gains would give them overall control of Teignbridge in Devon.
Leader of the Lib Dems, Sir Ed Davey, has been focusing the party’s election campaign on the rural south
More than half the 230 councils file their results in mid to late afternoon. This is a critical period.
Some 1,800 Conservative seats are in this batch – fewer than half of their 82 councils too.
There is scope for widespread swings in fortune but, at some point, it will become apparent whether there is a clear winner. If not, a prudent selection of council results is required for each party’s narrative.
As the afternoon progresses, there are councils, including Cherwell and Pendle, where defeat of a single Conservative councillor means the loss of control.
Labour will expect to make the gains that oust the Conservatives from Great Yarmouth, Erewash and possibly Dover. If Sir Keir Starmer has gone to a Labour celebration in Medway, then a little detour may be in order.
A tougher target, but tactically the bigger prize, is Swindon, which Labour last held 23 years ago.
The party has been playing for high stakes here, sending the leader to launch the party’s election campaign.
Labour trails the Conservatives by 10 seats. Five gains and the council moves into no overall control. Another and it becomes Labour’s and, with that, Swindon will be used front and centre to declare that the Conservatives are finished and a change of government is imminent.
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There’s another clutch of councils in the Tees Valley coming our way. This area typified Labour’s problem in 2019, losing ground in the May elections, followed by a massive defeat in the general election months later.
Darlington, Redcar & Cleveland, and Stockton-on-Tees must show signs of Labour’s recovery.
The Greens are worthy of attention in Mid Suffolk, where they battle with the Conservatives for title of largest party. But good news here disappears if the party buckles under Labour pressure in Brighton & Hove.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats could be advancing in councils like Chichester, Elmbridge, Surrey Heath, Waverley, and Wokingham. But if the Conservatives can withstand pressure on their councillor base, then parliamentary seats in these areas become more secure.
There are around 30 councils scheduled to declare a result after teatime. Everyone involved will be mindful that nothing should get in the way of the Coronation on Saturday.
Counting will become tense in some Conservative councils, like in Staffordshire Moorlands, where the result is on a knife-edge.
The same goes for Amber Valley (gained in 2021 following Labour’s collapse), Test Valley (Conservative throughout this century), and West Berkshire (where the Liberal Democrats may return to power after a 20-year absence).
World
Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.
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Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer have threatened Vladimir Putin with fresh sanctions if Russia fails to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
The prime minister met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv on Saturday.
It is the first time the leaders of the four countries have travelled to Ukraine – arriving by train – at the same time.
They updated Donald Trump on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.
European leaders including Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold call with Donald Trump. Pic: Number 10
Following the summit, the leaders announced an agreement that there should be an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday, with the backing of the US president.
“All of us here, together with US, are calling Putin out,” said Sir Keir.
“So we are clear, all five leaders here – all the leaders of the meeting we just had with the coalition of the willing – an unconditional ceasefire, rejecting Putin’s conditions, and clear that if he turns his back on peace, we will respond.
“Working with President Trump, with all our partners, we will ramp up sanctions and increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defence to pressure Russia back to the table.”
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
Leaders arrive in Kyiv by train. Pic: PA
It comes after Donald Trump called for “ideally” a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, and warned that if any pause in the fighting is not respected “the US and its partners will impose further sanctions”.
Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Samantha Washington the European leaders are “rowing in behind” the US president, who referred to his “European allies” for the first time in this context in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“So this meeting is all about heaping pressure on the Russians to go along with the American proposal,” he said.
“It’s the closest the Europeans and the US have been for about three months on this issue.”
Trump calls for ceasefire. Pic: Truth Social
Mr Zelenskyy told reporters the agreed ceasefire should cover air, sea and land, and said that if Moscow refused, Russia would face new sanctions, including the strengthening of punitive measures targeting its energy and banking sectors.
The European leaders said the terms of a peace deal would be negotiated during the 30-day pause in fighting.
But the Ukrainian president said: “We have no illusions that the ceasefire will be breached.”
Mr Macron said the proposed ceasefire would be monitored mainly by the US and European countries and there would be “massive” sanctions if Russia did not agree.
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for a coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on Friday that Russia supported the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire, but only with due consideration of “nuances”.
European leaders show solidarity – but await Trump’s backing
The hope is Russia’s unilateral ceasefire, such as it’s worth, can be extended for a month to give peace a chance.
But ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian sources told Sky News they are still waiting for President Donald Trump to put his full weight behind the idea.
The US leader has said a 30-day ceasefire would be ideal, but has shown no willingness yet for putting pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree.
The Russians say a ceasefire can only come after a peace deal can be reached.
European allies are still putting their hopes in a negotiated end to the war despite Moscow’s intransigence and President Trump’s apparent one-sided approach favouring Russia.
Ukrainians would prefer to be given enough economic and military support to secure victory.
But in over three years, despite its massive economic superiority to Russia and its access to more advanced military technology, Europe has not found the political will to give Kyiv the means to win.
Until they do, Vladimir Putin may decide it is still worth pursuing this war despite its massive cost in men and materiel on both sides.
As the European leaders pulled into Kyiv by train on Saturday, the screen on the platform announced the arrival of the “Bravery Express”.
Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire
Mr Zelenskyy accompanied them as they paid their respects at a memorial in central Kyiv to honour Ukrainian soldiers killed in the current war.
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The visit came on the final day of a three-day ceasefire unilaterally declared by Mr Putin, which was denounced as a sham by Ukraine.
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Both sides have accused each other of violating it.
Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.
Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.
Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.
Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.
The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.
‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.
In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.
The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke
India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.
Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.
LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.
LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.
Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”
Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.
TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.
Many of the accounts are linked to each other.
Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”
Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.
One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username
Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar
In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.
The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.
Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”
Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Anger in Pakistan after India strikes
India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.
MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”
Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.
On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
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