Local elections: A guide through the night – and the key councils to watch

Published

2 years ago

May 4, 2023

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Understanding the context of four years ago, when most of these seats were last contested, should help us to follow the council results as they are declared.

The Conservatives were unpopular, suffered a serious loss of councils and more than 1,300 seats.

It wasn’t Labour that inflicted such terrible losses – in fact, Labour lost seats and councils too.

It was the Liberal Democrats, Greens and different flavours of Independents that came off best.

Our estimate of the national equivalent vote saw the two main parties on just 31% apiece, the Lib Dems on 17% and assorted others taking the remaining share.

These are the baseline figures that will shape the 2023 elections – parties more unpopular now than then will lose ground, those whose popularity has grown will improve.

But these are local elections in England where candidates, parties and issues can and do matter. Expect the unexpected.

Labour is on the attack. The latest polling puts them around 43% – a 12-point increase in popularity. But Labour seldom appeals to local voters as well as it does with survey respondents.

There’s a gap of about six points between the two measures. That still means a likely swing from Conservative to Labour and, with that, a transfer of seats and councils.

The Liberal Democrats are optimistic too. Making steady gains from Conservatives in council by-elections, and some parliamentary equivalents, the party generally defies its lowly poll ratings.

There is a nuanced attack, concentrating resources in areas determined by opportunities to unseat Conservatives at the next general election.

So, it looks like Conservatives fighting off Labour and Liberal Democrats this time around.

Not quite.

The impact of independents and small parties in 2019 means that one in 10 seats are being defended by these groups.

This muddies the picture. If one of the main parties is more successful than the other in winning seats back that will change the pattern of gains and losses. So, pay close attention to the overall position.

Sixty-two councils expect a result from midnight through to breakfast time. Most of the earliest declarers are authorities selecting a third of seats.

Even so, more than 1,700 seats, a fifth of the total, will be decided during this phase.

There are 22 Conservative-controlled councils whose fates are on the line – a loss of just two seats means Brentwood and Windsor & Maidenhead fall, three seats and North West Leicestershire and South Gloucestershire go the same way.

Basildon and Harlow, among the very earlier declarers, have Conservative majorities vulnerable to the loss of four seats. It’s significant if Harlow goes because the wards being defended by the Conservatives have large majorities.

Some Conservative councils are selecting all seats and it will take longer to process the ballots. In Dacorum, Hertfordshire, their majority may be under threat from Liberal Democrats.

A bigger headline is if Medway falls to Labour. This was a new council in 1997 but even during its landslide victory, Labour could not win it outright. The winning line is 28 seats so watch this one closely.

There are councils where no party has an overall majority and where Labour might break through.

Hartlepool saw an unusual parliamentary by-election in 2021. Only a handful of times since the war has the party of government captured a seat from the opposition.

The council is no less fascinating because of the presence of Independents. Five are seeking re-election and Labour needs to make gains here if it is to recover ground it lost in 2019.

Bolton too has its fair share of Independents, but new boundaries mean a whole council election and an opportunity for Labour to re-establish its credentials.

As dawn breaks, watch Stoke-on-Trent – a city that repeatedly elected Labour MPs until it didn’t.

The council too was solidly Labour until internal feuding paved the way for Independents and then Conservatives to gain territory.

Labour’s ambition to replace the Conservatives nationally is being tested here. A minimum requirement is that it must become the largest party. On a great night, it might take control.

As we pause for breakfast, where are we in terms of overall seat gains and losses?

The Conservatives have 700 seats to negotiate in this part of the proceedings. Net losses of 200 seats at this juncture is not a good omen. Half that number, the party will be more optimistic and accusing Labour of under-performing.

There’s a small group of 20 councils that start counting after breakfast and suggest they’ll be finished by lunchtime.

Cannock Chase has a tiny Conservative majority and it’s vulnerable. Walsall may see Conservative seats swing to Labour, but it would be a surprise if the council changed hands.

Keep an eye out for Solihull where the Greens are the main opposition on the Conservative-led council. A swing of three Conservative seats to a combination of the Greens and Liberal Democrats would signal defeat.

Labour is likely to fall short of taking control of Burnley, but the Liberal Democrats must be hoping that a couple of gains would give them overall control of Teignbridge in Devon.

More than half the 230 councils file their results in mid to late afternoon. This is a critical period.

Some 1,800 Conservative seats are in this batch – fewer than half of their 82 councils too.

There is scope for widespread swings in fortune but, at some point, it will become apparent whether there is a clear winner. If not, a prudent selection of council results is required for each party’s narrative.

As the afternoon progresses, there are councils, including Cherwell and Pendle, where defeat of a single Conservative councillor means the loss of control.

Labour will expect to make the gains that oust the Conservatives from Great Yarmouth, Erewash and possibly Dover. If Sir Keir Starmer has gone to a Labour celebration in Medway, then a little detour may be in order.

A tougher target, but tactically the bigger prize, is Swindon, which Labour last held 23 years ago.

The party has been playing for high stakes here, sending the leader to launch the party’s election campaign.

Labour trails the Conservatives by 10 seats. Five gains and the council moves into no overall control. Another and it becomes Labour’s and, with that, Swindon will be used front and centre to declare that the Conservatives are finished and a change of government is imminent.

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There’s another clutch of councils in the Tees Valley coming our way. This area typified Labour’s problem in 2019, losing ground in the May elections, followed by a massive defeat in the general election months later.

Darlington, Redcar & Cleveland, and Stockton-on-Tees must show signs of Labour’s recovery.

The Greens are worthy of attention in Mid Suffolk, where they battle with the Conservatives for title of largest party. But good news here disappears if the party buckles under Labour pressure in Brighton & Hove.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats could be advancing in councils like Chichester, Elmbridge, Surrey Heath, Waverley, and Wokingham. But if the Conservatives can withstand pressure on their councillor base, then parliamentary seats in these areas become more secure.

There are around 30 councils scheduled to declare a result after teatime. Everyone involved will be mindful that nothing should get in the way of the Coronation on Saturday.

Counting will become tense in some Conservative councils, like in Staffordshire Moorlands, where the result is on a knife-edge.

The same goes for Amber Valley (gained in 2021 following Labour’s collapse), Test Valley (Conservative throughout this century), and West Berkshire (where the Liberal Democrats may return to power after a 20-year absence).

World

‘At least 59 killed’ in Gaza after Israeli military opens fire near aid centre and carries out strikes

Published

16 hours ago

July 12, 2025

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'At least 59 killed' in Gaza after Israeli military opens fire near aid centre and carries out strikes

At least 59 Palestinians have reportedly been killed after the Israeli military opened fire near an aid centre in Gaza and carried out strikes across the territory.

The Red Cross, which operates a field hospital in Rafah, said 25 people were “declared dead upon arrival” and “six more died after admittance” following gunfire near an aid distribution centre in the southern Gazan city.

The humanitarian organisation added that it also received 132 patients “suffering from weapon-related injuries” after the incident.

The Red Cross said: “The overwhelming majority of these patients sustained gunshot wounds, and all responsive individuals reported they were attempting to access food distribution sites.”

The organisation said the number of deaths marks the hospital’s “largest influx of fatalities” since it began operations in May last year.

The IDF has said it fired “warning shots” near the aid distribution site but it was “not aware of injured individuals” as a result.

It said in a statement: “Earlier today, several suspects were identified approaching IDF troops operating in the Rafah area, posing a threat to the troops, hundreds of metres from the aid distribution site.

“IDF troops operated in order to prevent the suspects from approaching them and fired warning shots.”

Mother’s despair over shooting

Somia Alshaar told Sky News her 17-year-old son Nasir was shot dead while visiting the aid centre after she told him not to go.

She said: “He went to get us tahini so we could eat.

“He went to get flour. He told me ‘mama, we don’t have tahini. Today I’ll bring you flour. Even if it kills me, I will get you flour’.

“He left the house and didn’t return. They told me at the hospital: your son…’Oh God, oh Lord’.”

Asked where her son was shot, she replied: “In the chest. Yes, in the chest.”

‘A policy of mass murder’

Hassan Omran, a paramedic with Gaza’s ministry of health, told Sky News after the incident that humanitarian aid centres in Gaza are now “centres of mass death”.

Speaking in Khan Younis, he said: “Today, there were more than 150 injuries and more than 20 martyrs at the aid distribution centres… the Israeli occupation deliberately kills and commits genocide. The Israeli occupation is carrying out a policy of mass murder.

“They call people to come get their daily food, and then, when citizens arrive at these centres, they are killed in cold blood.

“All the victims have gunshot wounds to the head and chest, meaning the enemy is committing these crimes deliberately.”

Israel has rejected genocide accusations and denies targeting civilians.

‘Lies being peddled’

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the controversial US and Israeli-backed group which operates the distribution centre near Rafah, said: “Hamas is claiming there was violence at our aid distribution sites today. False.

“Once again, there were no incidents at or in the immediate vicinity of our sites.

“But that’s not stopping some from spreading the lies being peddled by ‘officials’ at the Hamas-controlled Nasser Hospital.”

The Red Cross said its field hospital in Rafah has recorded more than 250 fatalities and treated more than 3,400 “weapon-wounded patients” since new food distribution sites were set up in Gaza on 27 May.

It comes after four children and two women were among at least 13 people who died in Deir al Balah, in central Gaza, after Israeli strikes pounded the area starting late on Friday, officials in Al Aqsa Martyrs hospital in the territory said.

Fifteen others died in Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, according to Nasser Hospital.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not responded to a request for comment on the reported deaths.

Israeli has been carrying out attacks in Gaza since Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages on 7 October 2023.

Hamas still holds 50 hostages, with fewer than half of them believed to be alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.

Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

US President Donald Trump has said he is closing in on another ceasefire agreement that would see more hostages released and potentially wind down the war.

But after two days of talks this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there were no signs of a breakthrough.

The latest fatalities in Gaza comes as a 20-year-old Palestinian-American man was beaten to death by settlers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Friday, the Palestinian Health ministry said.

Sayafollah Musallet, also known as Saif, was killed during a confrontation between Palestinians and settlers in Sinjil, north of Ramallah, the ministry said.

A second man, Hussein Al-Shalabi, 23, died after being shot in the chest.

Mr Musallet’s family, from Tampa Florida, has called on the US State Department to lead an “immediate investigation”.

A State Department spokesperson said it was aware of the incident but it had no further comment “out of respect for the privacy of the family and loved ones” of the reported victim.

The Israeli military said the confrontation broke out after Palestinians threw rocks at Israelis, lightly injuring them.

World

Backlash as Air India crash report points to possible human error – here’s what experts think

Published

19 hours ago

July 12, 2025

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Backlash as Air India crash report points to possible human error - here's what experts think

As investigators continue to piece together the full picture, early findings of the Air India crash are pointing towards a critical area of concern — the aircraft’s fuel control switches.

The flight, bound for London Gatwick, crashed just moments after taking off from Ahmedabad airport on 12 June, killing all but one of the 242 people on board the plane and at least 19 on the ground.

According to the preliminary report by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), the two engine fuel control switches on the plane were moved from the “RUN” to “CUTOFF” position.

These switches control fuel flow to the engines and should only be used when the aircraft is on ground, first to start the engines before a flight and later to shut them down at the gate.

They are designed so they’re unlikely to be changed accidentally, pointing to possible human error on the Air India flight.

The findings include the final conversation between the pilots and show there was confusion in the cockpit as well.

When one pilot asked the other why he cut off the fuel, he responded to say he did not do so.

Moments later, a Mayday call was made from the cockpit, but the plane could not regain power quickly enough and plummeted to the ground.

Captain Amit Singh, founder of Safety Matters Foundation, an organisation dedicated to aviation safety, told Sky News: “This exchange indicates that the engine shutdowns were uncommanded.

“However, the report does not identify the cause – whether it was crew error, mechanical malfunction, or electronic failure.”

Previous warning of ‘possible fuel switch issue’

“The Boeing 787 uses spring-loaded locking mechanisms on its fuel control switches to prevent accidental movement,” Mr Singh explained.

But a previous bulletin from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) “warned that these switches might be installed with the locking feature disengaged,” he said.

This could “make them susceptible to unintended movement due to vibration, contact, or quadrant flex”, he added.

Speaking to Sky News, aviation expert Terry Tozner said: “The take-off was normal, the aircraft rotated at the correct speed left the ground and almost immediately, the cut-off switches were selected to off, one then two.

“But nobody has said with any clarity whether or not the latch mechanisms worked okay on this particular aircraft. So we can only assume that they were in normal working order.”

In India, there has been a backlash over the findings, with some saying the report points to pilot error without much information and almost dismisses the possibility of a mechanical or electric failure.

Indian government responds

India’s civil aviation minister Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu has been quick to respond, saying: “We care for the welfare and the wellbeing of pilots so let’s not jump to any conclusions at this stage, let us wait for the final report.

“I believe we have the most wonderful workforce of pilots and crew in the whole world.”

Both pilots were experienced, with around 19,000 flying hours between them, including more than 9,000 on Boeing 787s.

The report says the aircraft maintenance checks were on schedule and that there are no signs of fuel contamination or a bird strike.

So far, no safety recommendations have been issued to Boeing or General Electric, the engine manufacturers.

Concern over destroyed flight recorder

Mr Singh said “the survivability of the flight recorders also raises concern”.

The plane’s rear flight recorder, designed to withstand impact forces of 3,400 Gs and temperatures of 1,100C for 60 minutes, “was damaged beyond recovery”.

“The Ram Air Turbine (RAT), which deploys automatically when both engines fail and power drops below a threshold, was observed as deployed in CCTV footage when the aircraft was approximately 60ft above ground level,” Mr Singh said.

“This suggests that the dual engine failure likely occurred before the official timestamp of 08:08:42 UTC, implying a possible discrepancy.”

Mr Singh said it was also “of particular note” that the plane’s emergency locator transmitter (ELT) did not send any signal after the crash.

“Was the ELT damaged, unarmed, mis-wired, or malfunctioning?” he said.

The report has generated more questions than answers on topics including human error, power source failures and mechanical or electrical malfunction.

The final report is expected to take a year. Meanwhile, families grapple with the unimaginable loss of loved ones in one of the worst disasters in India’s aviation history.

World

Donald Trump announces 30% tariff on imports from EU

Published

24 hours ago

July 12, 2025

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Donald Trump announces 30% tariff on imports from EU

Donald Trump has announced he will impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union from 1 August.

The tariffs could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals more expensive in the US.

Mr Trump has also imposed a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico, according to a post from his Truth Social account.

Announcing the moves in separate letters on the account, the president said the US trade deficit was a national security threat.

In his letter to the EU, he wrote: “We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers.

“Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal.”

In his letter to Mexico, Mr Trump said he did not think the country had done enough to stop the US from turning into a “narco-trafficking playground”.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said today that the EU could adopt “proportionate countermeasures” if the US proceeds with imposing the 30% tariff.

Ms von der Leyen, who heads the EU’s executive arm, said in a statement that the bloc remained ready “to continue working towards an agreement by Aug 1”.

“Few economies in the world match the European Union’s level of openness and adherence to fair trading practices,” she continued.

“We will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”

Ms von der Leyen has also said imposing tariffs on EU exports would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains”.

Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on the X social media platform that Mr Trump’s announcement was “very concerning and not the way forward”.

He added: “The European Commission can count on our full support. As the EU we must remain united and resolute in pursuing an outcome with the United States that is mutually beneficial.”

Mexico’s economy ministry said a bilateral working group aims to reach an alternative to the 30% US tariffs before they are due to take effect.

The country was informed by the US that it would receive a letter about the tariffs, the ministry’s statement said, adding that Mexico was negotiating.

Trump’s tariff threats and delays

On his so-called “liberation day” in April, Mr Trump unleashed “reciprocal tariffs” on many of America’s trade partners.

The US president said he was targeting countries with which America has a trade imbalance.

However, since then he’s backed down in a spiralling tit-for-tat tariff face-off with China, and struck a deal with the UK.

The US imposed a 20% tariff on imported goods from the EU in April but it was later paused and the bloc has since been paying a baseline tariff of 10% on goods it exports to the US.

In May, while the US and EU where holding trade negotiations, Mr Trump threated to impose a 50% tariff on the bloc as talks didn’t progress as he would have liked.

However, he later announced he was delaying the imposition of that tariff while negotiations over a trade deal took place.

As of earlier this week, the EU’s executive commission, which handles trade issues for the bloc’s 27-member nations, said its leaders were still hoping to strike a trade deal with the Trump administration.

Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.