Democrats have sinking feeling: Trump could beat Biden

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2 years ago

May 10, 2023

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Democrats are getting a sinking feeling when it comes to Donald Trump: They can see him winning again.

A New York jury in a civil trial on Tuesday found the former president liable for sexual assault and defamation, but a number of Democrats say their party is underestimating Trump, who despite a series of scandals is the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination.

“There is a concern from a lot of people like me, for sure,” said one prominent Democratic strategist. “There’s a disconnect between the consultant class of our party and the voters. They think they can just run a bunch of ads talking about how crazy Donald Trump is [and] that will be enough. That’s just not the case.”

Another strategist warned others in his party: “Be very f—ing worried.”

For a part of the party, it seems unfathomable that Trump could regain the office he left in 2021 — just weeks after a mob of his supporters forced the evacuation of Congress and interfered with the certification of the election.

Trump now faces a string of lawsuits and controversies, yet some polls show him beating President Biden in a one-on-one matchup.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found Trump leading Biden by 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent, but Democratic operatives and even some Republicans have criticized the survey as an outlier, with many saying privately and publicly that the data appears inconsistent.

Yet the ABC/Post poll isn’t the only one showing Trump with an edge.

A Harvard-Harris poll from late last month placed Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points, while another by the Wall Street Journal gave Biden a smaller 3-percent lead.

Last week, Democrats got another glimpse into the state of play: Trump and Biden in a dead heat. An Economist/YouGov poll put them each at 46 percent.

Polls also show a lack of passion in Biden’s reelection effort, with many saying they’d prefer a different Democratic candidate.

One bright spot for Democrats came from Trump’s tepid campaign launch, which was rife with personal grievances and complaints about the last election. His lackluster kickoff gave Democrats some optimism that he’d be weaker in 2024.

Over the spring, Trump’s problems got worse, with an indictment in New York and various pending legal battles leaving many to question whether he could realistically secure the Republican nomination, let alone win the general election.

“It’s reasonable to think that as the country focuses on Joe Biden versus the Republican alternative and on the contrasts that will present, Joe Biden’s standing will improve in that binary choice scenario,” said a former campaign aide to 2020 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Biden has not drawn primary challengers seen as significant, and his message has focused on the idea that the country cannot afford to go back to the Trump days. His campaign video depicted images of the insurrection on the Capitol on Jan. 6 to remind voters of what happened under Trump’s encouragement.

Yet Biden also has real weaknesses, with many voters holding doubts about his stamina given his age. Biden is 80 and would turn 86 at the end of a second term.

Some Democrats say they think it is too early to be worried about a bad poll, and voice confidence that if voters are offered the choice of Biden or Trump, the Democrat will win again.

“I’m not surprised Trump’s numbers are high in the GOP or that Biden is low with Democrats,” said Nayyera Haq, a former Obama administration official.

“In theory yes [he could win], I just have a hard time seeing it,” Haq said of a Trump victory.

Another prominent Democrat, veteran political strategist Simon Rosenberg, who predicted his party’s success in the midterms against the conventional polling wisdom, said there are more indicators now that point to Democrats’ momentum.

The party gets better organized each cycle and some of the unexpected wins in 2022 were built on the groundwork laid in 2018 and 2020, he said. More engagement, grassroots volunteers, and small-dollar donations are pouring in to help fuel the party in a way he argues the GOP is underestimating.

“Commentators have to be very cautious about gauging intensity levels in this next election,” said Rosenberg.

The roiling politics of abortion are another factor, something seen in Wisconsin, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the last election. After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, voters came out in support of the Democratic candidate for state Supreme Court.

“You’ve now had three consecutive elections where Democrats’ performance has been at the upper end of what’s been possible for us,” Rosenberg said. Musk on Tucker Carlson’s show launch on Twitter announcement: ‘We have not signed a deal’ Trump knocks judge, jury after being found liable for sexual battery, defamation

Rosenberg and other Democrats also believe their party will show up to vote against Trump, if he is the GOP nominee.

“Anyone who thinks that this anti-MAGA majority that did so well for us these last three elections is all of a sudden going to not show up, well, I have a red wave to sell you,” he said.

–Updated at 8:04 a.m.

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Follow live: Blue Jays host Yankees in Game 2 of ALDS

Published

3 hours ago

October 5, 2025

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Brewers CF Chourio’s status uncertain for Game 2

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3 hours ago

October 5, 2025

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Brewers CF Chourio's status uncertain for Game 2

Jesse RogersOct 5, 2025, 04:41 PM ET
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MILWAUKEE — Milwaukee Brewers centerfielder Jackson Chourio‘s status for Game 2 of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs on Monday is uncertain after an MRI on his right hamstring came back inconclusive, according to manager Pat Murphy.

Chourio, 21, left Game 1 on Saturday after legging out an infield hit in the bottom of the second inning. It’s the same hamstring he injured in July — also while playing against the Cubs — putting his immediate playing future in doubt.

“I can’t give you a definitive, but I know that we’re going to test some things today,” Murphy said on Sunday afternoon. “He’s going to be out there today. I don’t know that he’ll do much, but the MRI came back and it’s inconclusive and it’s not a serious hamstring strain, but it’s not necessarily something that won’t limit him.”

Chourio was 3 for 3 in the game before leaving. Murphy indicated rookie Isaac Collins would likely take Chourio’s place in the lineup if the latter player can’t go.

The Brewers manager also announced lefty Aaron Ashby will start Game 2 for his team, though he probably won’t last long after throwing 1⅓ innings on Saturday. He’s likely opening the game to help neutralize Cubs leadoff man Michael Busch — also a lefty — who homered to start Game 1.

“He could go as long as we want him to,” Murphy said of Ashby.

Righty Quinn Priester is likely the bulk innings guy for the Brewers after Ashby, but Murphy stopped short of declaring his plans. The Cubs are countering with lefty Shota Imanaga, who pitched in Game 2 of the wild-card round against the San Diego Padres.

“He’s a competitor,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “And I think he’s a thinking-man’s competitor, and he also pitches with a lot of joy on the mound, while competing at a really high level.”

Imanaga has a 5.73 ERA in four career games against the Brewers, including three starts this season.

“I think all the hitters, they understand what they need to do, and I think that’s the Brewers’ offense,” Imanaga said of his struggles against Milwaukee. “Even yesterday, just the next guy was up, the next guy was ready. So I think, for me, it’s just making sure, take it one out at a time, and then thinking about that one out.”

Murphy was asked about facing the second-year Cub who features a rising fastball and a sinking splitter.

“His heater plays way up,” Murphy said. “If it says 91, the hitter sees it as 95 to 96.”

Milwaukee won Game 1 in a route, 9-3.

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AP Week 6 poll reaction: What’s next for each Top 25 team

Published

4 hours ago

October 5, 2025

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AP Week 6 poll reaction: What's next for each Top 25 team

Oct 5, 2025, 02:25 PM ET

The latest AP poll is out. Most ranked teams held steady. The Ohio State Buckeyes stayed atop the poll after a convincing win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and the Miami Hurricanes bolstered their résumé with a win over the Florida State Seminoles. But both the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions and then No. 9 Texas Longhorns were stunned by unranked opponents. (UCLA and Florida, respectively.)

What does it all mean for the AP Top 25? Let’s break down the rankings.

Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.

All times Eastern.

Previous ranking: 1

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Defeated Minnesota 42-3

Stat to know: Ohio State has allowed 25 total points this season. That is the fewest points allowed through five games by a Big Ten team since 1985 Michigan.

What’s next: Saturday at Illinois, noon, Fox

Previous ranking: 3

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Defeated Florida State 28-22

Stat to know: Miami has three straight wins against AP-ranked opponents within a season for the first time since 2004.

What’s next: Oct. 17 vs. Louisville, 7 p.m.

Previous ranking: 2

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Idle

What’s next: Saturday vs. Indiana, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Previous ranking: 4

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Idle

What’s next: Saturday vs. Washington State, 12:45 p.m., SEC Network

Previous ranking: 6

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Defeated Mississippi State 31-9

Stat to know: This is Texas A&M’s first 5-0 start since 2016.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Florida, 7 p.m., ESPN

Previous ranking: 5

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Defeated Kent State 44-0

Stat to know: This was Oklahoma’s first shutout since its 2023 win over Arkansas State.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Texas (in Dallas), 3:30 p.m., ABC

Previous ranking: 8

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Idle

What’s next: Saturday at Oregon, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Previous ranking: 10

2025 record: 4-1

Week 6 result: Defeated Vanderbilt 30-14

Stat to know: Kalen DeBoer is now 13-2 in matchups between two ranked teams.

What’s next: Saturday at Missouri, noon, ABC

Previous ranking: 11

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Defeated Houston 35-11

Stat to know: Texas Tech has now won five straight games by 20-plus points for first time since 1953-54.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Kansas, 7:30 p.m., Fox

Previous ranking: 12

2025 record: 4-1

Week 6 result: Defeated Kentucky 35-14

Stat to know: Georgia has a 16-game win streak against Kentucky.

What’s next: Saturday at Auburn, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Previous ranking: 13

2025 record: 4-1

Week 6 result: Idle

What’s next: Saturday vs. South Carolina, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network

Previous ranking: 15

2025 record: 4-1

Week 6 result: Idle

What’s next: Saturday vs. Arkansas, 4:15 p.m., SEC Network

Previous ranking: 17

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Idle

What’s next: Saturday vs. Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m., ACC Network

Previous ranking: 19

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Idle

What’s next: Saturday vs. Alabama, noon, ABC

Previous ranking: 20

2025 record: 4-1

Week 6 result: Defeated Wisconsin 24-10

Stat to know: Michigan has now won consecutive games against Wisconsin for the first time since 2002.

What’s next: Saturday at USC, 7:30 p.m., NBC

Previous ranking: 21

2025 record: 3-2

Week 6 result: Defeated Boise State 28-7

Stat to know: Against Boise State, Notre Dame had four interceptions in a game for the first time since 2023.

What’s next: Saturday vs. NC State, 3:30 p.m., Peacock

Previous ranking: 22

2025 record: 5-1

Week 6 result: Defeated Purdue 42-27

Stat to know: Illinois has now won consecutive games against Purdue for the first time since 2001-02.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Ohio State, noon, Fox

Previous ranking: 23

2025 record: 5-0

Week 6 result: Defeated West Virginia 38-24

Stat to know: BYU has started 5-0 for the sixth time in program history.

What’s next: Saturday at Arizona, 8 p.m., ESPN2

Previous ranking: 24

2025 record: 5-1

Week 6 result: Defeated Louisville 30-27 (OT)

Stat to know: The win over Louisville is Virginia’s second straight overtime win. Virginia had never won multiple overtime games in a season prior to 2025.

What’s next: Oct. 18 vs. Washington State, 6:30 p.m., The CW