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Democrats are getting a sinking feeling when it comes to Donald Trump: They can see him winning again.  

A New York jury in a civil trial on Tuesday found the former president liable for sexual assault and defamation, but a number of Democrats say their party is underestimating Trump, who despite a series of scandals is the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination.  

“There is a concern from a lot of people like me, for sure,” said one prominent Democratic strategist. “There’s a disconnect between the consultant class of our party and the voters. They think they can just run a bunch of ads talking about how crazy Donald Trump is [and] that will be enough. That’s just not the case.” 

Another strategist warned others in his party: “Be very f—ing worried.”  

For a part of the party, it seems unfathomable that Trump could regain the office he left in 2021 — just weeks after a mob of his supporters forced the evacuation of Congress and interfered with the certification of the election.  

Trump now faces a string of lawsuits and controversies, yet some polls show him beating President Biden in a one-on-one matchup.  

An ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found Trump leading Biden by 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent, but Democratic operatives and even some Republicans have criticized the survey as an outlier, with many saying privately and publicly that the data appears inconsistent.

Yet the ABC/Post poll isn’t the only one showing Trump with an edge. 

A Harvard-Harris poll from late last month placed Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points, while another by the Wall Street Journal gave Biden a smaller 3-percent lead.  

Last week, Democrats got another glimpse into the state of play: Trump and Biden in a dead heat. An Economist/YouGov poll put them each at 46 percent.  

Polls also show a lack of passion in Biden’s reelection effort, with many saying they’d prefer a different Democratic candidate.  

One bright spot for Democrats came from Trump’s tepid campaign launch, which was rife with personal grievances and complaints about the last election. His lackluster kickoff gave Democrats some optimism that he’d be weaker in 2024.  

Over the spring, Trump’s problems got worse, with an indictment in New York and various pending legal battles leaving many to question whether he could realistically secure the Republican nomination, let alone win the general election. 

“It’s reasonable to think that as the country focuses on Joe Biden versus the Republican alternative and on the contrasts that will present, Joe Biden’s standing will improve in that binary choice scenario,” said a former campaign aide to 2020 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.  

Biden has not drawn primary challengers seen as significant, and his message has focused on the idea that the country cannot afford to go back to the Trump days. His campaign video depicted images of the insurrection on the Capitol on Jan. 6 to remind voters of what happened under Trump’s encouragement. 

Yet Biden also has real weaknesses, with many voters holding doubts about his stamina given his age. Biden is 80 and would turn 86 at the end of a second term.  

Some Democrats say they think it is too early to be worried about a bad poll, and voice confidence that if voters are offered the choice of Biden or Trump, the Democrat will win again.  

“I’m not surprised Trump’s numbers are high in the GOP or that Biden is low with Democrats,” said Nayyera Haq, a former Obama administration official.  

“In theory yes [he could win], I just have a hard time seeing it,” Haq said of a Trump victory. 

Another prominent Democrat, veteran political strategist Simon Rosenberg, who predicted his party’s success in the midterms against the conventional polling wisdom, said there are more indicators now that point to Democrats’ momentum.  

The party gets better organized each cycle and some of the unexpected wins in 2022 were built on the groundwork laid in 2018 and 2020, he said. More engagement, grassroots volunteers, and small-dollar donations are pouring in to help fuel the party in a way he argues the GOP is underestimating.  

“Commentators have to be very cautious about gauging intensity levels in this next election,” said Rosenberg.  

The roiling politics of abortion are another factor, something seen in Wisconsin, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the last election. After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, voters came out in support of the Democratic candidate for state Supreme Court.  

“You’ve now had three consecutive elections where Democrats’ performance has been at the upper end of what’s been possible for us,” Rosenberg said.   Musk on Tucker Carlson’s show launch on Twitter announcement: ‘We have not signed a deal’ Trump knocks judge, jury after being found liable for sexual battery, defamation

Rosenberg and other Democrats also believe their party will show up to vote against Trump, if he is the GOP nominee.  

“Anyone who thinks that this anti-MAGA majority that did so well for us these last three elections is all of a sudden going to not show up, well, I have a red wave to sell you,” he said.

–Updated at 8:04 a.m.

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Business

A pub a day to close this year, industry body warns as it calls for cut to tax burden

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A pub a day to close this year, industry body warns as it calls for cut to tax burden

An industry body has warned that the equivalent of more than one pub a day is set to close across Great Britain this year.

According to the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), an estimated 378 venues will shut down across England, Wales and Scotland.

This would amount to more than 5,600 direct job losses, the industry body warns. It has called for a reduction in the cumulative tax and regulatory burden for the hospitality sector – including cutting business rates and beer duty.

The body – representing members that brew 90% of British beer and own more than 20,000 pubs – said such measures would slow the rate at which bars are closing.

BBPA chief executive Emma McClarkin said that while pubs are trading well, “most of the money that goes into the till goes straight back out in bills and taxes”.

“For many, it’s impossible to make a profit, which all too often leads to pubs turning off the lights for the last time,” she said.

“When a pub closes, it puts people out of a job, deprives communities of their heart and soul, and hurts the local economy.”

She urged the government to “proceed with meaningful business rates reform, mitigate these eye-watering new employment and EPR (extended producer responsibility) costs, and cut beer duty”.

“We’re not asking for special treatment, we just want the sector’s rich potential unleashed,” she added.

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The government has said it plans to reform the current business rates system, saying in March that an interim report on the measure would be published this summer.

From April, relief on property tax – that came in following the COVID-19 pandemic – was cut from 75% to 40%, leading to higher bills for hospitality, retail and leisure businesses.

The rate of employer National Insurance Contributions also rose from 13.8% to 15% that month, and the wage threshold was lowered from £9,100 to £5,000, under measures announced by Rachel Reeves in the October budget.

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US

Gaza permanent ceasefire ‘questionable’, says senior Israeli official

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Gaza permanent ceasefire 'questionable', says senior Israeli official

A senior Israeli official has issued a less-than-optimistic assessment of the permanency of any ceasefire in Gaza.

Speaking in Washington on condition of anonymity, the senior official said that a 60-day ceasefire “might” be possible within “a week, two weeks – not a day”.

But on the chances of the ceasefire lasting beyond 60 days, the official said: “We will begin negotiations on a permanent settlement.

“But we achieve it? It’s questionable, but Hamas will not be there.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to conclude a four-day visit to Washington later today.

There had been hope that a ceasefire could be announced during the trip. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that it’s close.

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Netanyahu arrives in US for ceasefire talks

Speaking at a briefing for a number of reporters, the Israeli official would not be drawn on any of the details of the negotiations over concerns that public disclosure could jeopardise their chances of success.

The major sticking point in the talks between Hamas and Israel is the status of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) inside Gaza during the 60-day ceasefire and beyond, should it last longer.

The latest Israeli proposal, passed to Hamas last week, included a map showing the proposed IDF presence inside Gaza during the ceasefire.

Read more: What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal?

Israeli military vehicles stand near the Israel-Gaza border, in Israel.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

This was rejected by Hamas and by Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who reportedly told the Israelis that the redeployment map “looks like a Smotrich plan”, a reference to the extreme-right Israeli finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich.

The official repeated Israel’s central stated war aims of getting the hostages back and eliminating Hamas. But in a hint of how hard it will be to reconcile the differences, the official was clear that no permanent ceasefire would be possible without the complete removal of Hamas.

“We will offer them a permanent ceasefire,” he told Sky News. “If they agree. Fine. It’s over.

“They lay down their arms, and we proceed [with the ceasefire]. If they don’t, we’ll proceed [with the war].”

On the status of the Israeli military inside Gaza, the official said: “We would want IDF in every square meter of Gaza, and then hand it over to someone…”

He added: “[We] don’t want to govern Gaza… don’t want to govern, but the first thing is, you have to defeat Hamas…”

Smoke rises in Gaza after an explosion, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

The official said the Israeli government had “no territorial designs for Gaza”.

“But [we] don’t want Hamas there,” he continued. “You have to finish the job… victory over Hamas. You cannot have victory if you don’t clear out all the fighting forces.

“You have to go into every square inch unless you are not serious about victory. I am. We are going to defeat them. Those who do not disarm will die. Those who disarm will have a life.”

On the future of Gaza, the official ruled out the possibility of a two-state solution “for the foreseeable future”.

“They are not going to have a state in the foreseeable future as long as they cling to that idea of destroying our state. It doesn’t make a difference if they are the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, it’s just a difference of tactics.”

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On the most controversial aspect of the Gaza conflict – the movement of the population – the official predicted that 60% of Palestinians would “choose to leave”.

But he claimed that Israel would allow them to return once Hamas had been eliminated, adding: “It’s not forcible eviction, it’s not permanent eviction.”

Critics of Israel’s war in Gaza say that any removal of Palestinians from Gaza, even if given the appearance of being “voluntary,” is in fact anything but, because the strip has been so comprehensively flattened.

Reacting to Israeli Defence Minister Katz’s recent statement revealing a plan to move Palestinians into a “humanitarian city” in southern Gaza, and not let them out of that area, the official wouldn’t be drawn, except to say: “As a permanent arrangement? Of course not.”

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UK

‘A constant game of cat and mouse’: Inside the police crackdown on illegal moped delivery drivers

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'A constant game of cat and mouse': Inside the police crackdown on illegal moped delivery drivers

The first thing you notice when immigration officers stop a possible illegal moped delivery driver is the speed in which the suspect quickly taps on their mobile.

“We’re in their WhatsApp groups – they’ll be telling thousands now that we’re here… so our cover is blown,” the lead immigration officer tells me.

“It’s like a constant game of cat and mouse.”

Twelve Immigration Enforcement officers, part of the Home Office, are joining colleagues from Avon and Somerset Police in a crackdown on road offences and migrants working illegally.

Police chase suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery drivers

The West of England and Wales has seen the highest number of arrests over the last year for illegal workers outside of London.

“It is a problem… we’re tackling it,” Murad Mohammed, from Immigration Enforcement, says. He covers all the devolved nations.

“This is just one of the operations going on around the country, every day of the week, every month of the year.”

Murad Mohammed from Immigration Enforcement
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Murad Mohammed, from Immigration Enforcement, says his team are attempting to tackle the issue

Just outside the Cabot Circus shopping complex, we stop a young Albanian man who arrived in the UK on the back of a truck.

He’s on an expensive and fast-looking e-bike, with a new-looking Just Eat delivery bag.

He says he just uses it for “groceries” – but the officer isn’t buying it. He’s arrested, but then bailed instantly.

A man inspects the Just Eat food delivery bag of a suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver

We don’t know the specifics of his case, but one officer tells me this suspected offence won’t count against his asylum claim.

Such is the scale of the problem – the backlog, loopholes and the complexity of cases – that trying to keep on top of it feels impossible.

This is one of many raids happening across the UK as part of what the government says is a “blitz” targeting illegal working hotspots.

Angela Eagle, the border security and asylum minister, joins the team for an hour at one of Bristol’s retail parks, scattered with fast food chains and, therefore, delivery bikes.

Angela Eagle, Minister for Border Security and Asylum
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Border security and asylum minister, Angela Eagle, speaks to Sky News

She says arrests for illegal working are up over the last year by 51% from the year before, to more than 7,000.

“If we find you working, you can lose access to the hotel or the support you have [been] given under false pretences,” she said.

“We are cracking down on that abuse, and we intend to keep doing so.”

A suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver being arrested

There are reports that asylum seekers can rent legitimate delivery-driver accounts within hours of arriving in the country – skipping employment legality checks.

Uber Eats, Deliveroo, and Just Eat all told Sky News they’re continuing to strengthen the technology they use to remove anyone working illegally.

But a new Border Security Bill, working its way through Parliament, could see companies fined £60,000 for each illegal worker discovered, director disqualifications and potential prison sentences of up to five years.

“I had them all in to see me last week and I told them in no uncertain terms that we take a very tough line on this kind of abuse and they’ve got to change their systems so they can drive it out and off their platforms,” the minister tells me.

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The gig economy – so prevalent in every city – creates another incentive for those wanting to risk their lives coming to the UK illegally.

More than 20,000 migrants have crossed the English Channel to the UK in 2025 – a record number at this point of the year.

A suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver holds his helmet

For some of those who arrive, a bike and a phone provide a way to repay debts to gang masters.

There were eight arrests today in Bristol, one or two taken into custody, but it was 12 hours of hard work by a dozen immigration officers and the support of the police.

As two mopeds are pushed onto a low-loader, you can’t help but feel, despite the best intentions, that at the moment, this is a losing battle.

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