‘A perfect storm of badness’: How the Cardinals lost their way — and hope to find it again
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
The Cardinal Way needs a GPS.
Going into the season, the St. Louis Cardinals were heavy favorites to repeat as National League Central champions. Instead, they’ve sputtered to an NL-worst 14-25 record — and almost certainly lost the formula that had led to four straight playoff appearances. St. Louis’ struggles came to a very public head last weekend when the team announced it was pulling Willson Contreras from the catching role just 32 games into a five-year, $87.5 million contract.
A franchise known for its even-keel front office, steady clubhouse and consistent play had played its way to the bottom of the NL Central on the field and turned into a soap opera off of it.
“It’s pretty simple,” third baseman Nolan Arenado told ESPN. “It’s not a collection of good baseball that we’ve been playing. … It’s just not Cardinal baseball. Not putting people away, not making plays, not any timely hitting. It’s hard for me to criticize anyone because I haven’t been playing very well either. And that really hurts.”
No, not even a star like Arenado is immune from the Cardinals’ early woes. After finishing third in the NL MVP voting last season, the third baseman is hitting just .252 with a .671 OPS nearly a quarter of the way into the season. But no team falls 14 games under .500 this early in the season because of just one player — or even a handful.
“Really, this first month was a perfect storm of badness,” veteran Adam Wainwright said. “We didn’t lose all those games because of one player.”
Here’s what has gone wrong for the Cardinals — and how they hope to turn their season around.
What happened to the Cardinal Way?
This has always been a franchise that prides itself in focusing on the little things — things that often win close games. But this year, many of their losses have come from an inability to execute in key spots — highlighted by a 1-7 record in one-run games — rather than being outright outplayed.
“At the end of the day, all that matters is either you win or you lose, that’s it,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said. “But even when we’re losing, we’ve done a lot of things well and one thing sucks, and then you lose that game.”
The numbers back up what St. Louis’ skipper is seeing on a nightly basis:
• The Cardinals rank last in winning percentage in one-run games
• They’ve blown a league-leading 11 saves
• They’ve given up the fifth-most unearned runs
• They have sixth come-from-behind wins, fourth-fewest in MLB
• Their 33 ground outs into double plays is six-most in MLB
• They even lead MLB in pitch clock violations by pitchers.
“It’s not one thing,” outfielder Lars Nootbar said. “It’s a collective group, and I don’t mean that as a cliché. When one side does something well, the other side doesn’t.”
What happened to the rotation?
When the Cardinals are at their best, the pitching staff has often been at the forefront of the club’s success. This season, the pitching staff has been at the forefront of its struggles — beginning with the rotation.
Not a single St. Louis starter has an ERA under 4.00 and the team’s collective 5.45 mark is its highest through the first 38 games since 1995. The rotation ERA ranks 26th in baseball, down from 16th last season, 11th in 2021 and fifth in 2020 — a pattern that started developing long before Contreras or new pitching coach Dusty Blake arrived.
“I think if you asked every pitcher in here, almost everyone except maybe Jordan Montgomery, who has pitched great the whole time, nobody has pitched the way they can,” Wainwright said.
Montgomery has been the best of the group, but his ERA is still over 4.00, thanks in large part to a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in which he gave up seven runs. Fresh off an offseason contract extension, Miles Mikolas has allowed 57 hits in 41⅓ innings while compiling a 5.40 ERA, though his two May starts (3.60 ERA with 12 strikeouts and three walks in 10 innings) have been encouraging. Former ace-in-training Jack Flaherty has a 6.18 ERA, oft-injured lefty Steven Matz (5.70) has underwhelmed, and former first-round pick Jordan Woodford (5.40) faltered as the direct fill-in for Wainwright, who recently came back after missing the first month with a groin injury.
There is hope that Wainwright’s return will stabilize a rotation that has failed to step up in the absence of its most accomplished starter.
But relying upon a 41-year-old pitcher coming back from injury is no sure thing and only underscores a belief from some rival evaluators that the Cardinals are now paying for not adding another starter when they had the chance.
“That’s not a championship rotation,” one American League scout said this week. “Anyone could have told you that months ago.”
Even when they have made moves for pitching in recent seasons, the Cardinals have seemed more focused on a short-term fix with an aging starter, such as Jon Lester and J.A. Happ in 2021, or a pending free agent, like Jose Quintana last season, rather than a long-term solution. There are still nearly two months until the trade deadline, but it’s hard to see the Cardinals in the market for any outside pitching help this summer unless the current group of starters improves enough to get them back near contention.
What is Contreras’ role?
How much of the pitching staff’s struggles can be attributed to not having Yadier Molina behind the plate for the first time since 2004? That question moved from talk radio debate fodder to the center of the St. Louis clubhouse last weekend when the Cardinals announced they were pulling Contreras, whom they hand-picked to replace Molina, from his catching duties.
Six months after signing the largest free agent contract in Cardinals history, Conteras is now serving as the team’s designated hitter. It was a headline-making, head-scratching move that played out publicly just as the team was heading to Chicago for Contreras’ first meeting against his former team, the Cubs.
“He has not caught his last game and is a key part of this team,” Cardinals president of baseball operation John Mozeliak said in an email to ESPN. “We just ask for patience as we work through things.”
The decision came the day after Flaherty gave up 10 runs in 2⅓ innings against the San Francisco Giants. Two days later, Flaherty was part of a meeting between Marmol, Contreras and Wainwright — though Marmol wouldn’t elaborate on why those were the participants, the reason for the meeting was to tell Contreras how much they need him.
“He needed to hear from some meaningful guys that you’re our guy, we love you, we trust you, Marmol said. “The only way we get to where we want to get to is with you helping lead behind the plate — and here’s how we’re going to do that.”
It was a day Marmol declared “one of the most productive” of the season. But the Cardinals still aren’t saying why Contreras isn’t back behind the plate.
“There’s what’s out there and then what’s really happening behind closed doors and they couldn’t be more different,” Marmol said. “The timing of it sucks. But it’s a small blip in the story over the next five years.”
When asked if Contreras’ issues were due in part to him learning a new staff while getting used to the pitch clock — all while missing time with some Cardinals pitchers during the spring because they were pitching in the WBC — Marmol gave the first real window into the decision.
“The answer to that is yes,” he said. “There’s more to what you just said. [But] the combination of learning a new staff [and] the WBC and the pitch clock, that’s a tough combo. Is that a big player [in the decision]? Yes, absolutely.”
“I think Willson is going to step up to this challenge,” shortstop Paul DeJong said. “I think he will catch for us. I think he has all the talent and ability to do it, and I think he’s going to show everyone that he deserves to catch. He’s going to use that as a springboard.
“Maybe at first he was a little taken aback by it. A little sensitive, which is understandable. When we’re in this situation we’re in right now, we have to do what we can to make an improvement today. I think that’s what the front office was thinking.”
Where does the season go from here?
After taking the first two games in Chicago, the Cardinals got blown out Wednesday. Still, their 3-1 win Monday showed what their manager wants to see from his team. It was followed by a grind-it-out 6-4 victory Tuesday.
“That’s the way baseball should look, as far as our brand of baseball,” Marmol said. “You get good pitching, you play defense and some timely hitting. We’ve had a couple that have looked that way, but not as many as we should at this point.”
While everyone in St. Louis would love to see the Cardinals go on a massive run that gets them back into contention, the way out of a hole this deep is likely to come with smaller steps. Could their first three-game win streak of the season be one?
“We are still trying to find our stride,” Mozeliak said. “The first month of the season did not begin as we planned. We all understand that baseball is a long season, and even though we are not playing to our expectations, we also know there is time to get things right.”
Sometimes it has been the pitching that has failed to meet those expectations. Other times, the new acquisitions. And others, star players whom the team had counted on to deliver would up short. There is one consistent amid the struggles, though: The Cardinals clubhouse undeniably has looked different than a year ago without some of the familiar faces who have served as leaders.
“I think we may have gotten a little bit lost thinking about what we did have, maybe a little love drunk about Yadi and Albert [Pujols] being gone, and not having Waino at the start of the season,” DeJong said. “We were a little fragmented.”
Still, a last-place record, high ERAs and sloppy play coupled with some early controversy is uncharted territory for a franchise accustomed to having things go its way. How will the team respond?
“I don’t think our confidence is shaken,” Nootbar said. “We were unfamiliar with the start for sure, but the Cardinals always find a way. Over 162 we will. We’re going to need every one of them.”
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — On Sept. 7, Notre Dame fell to Northern Illinois, a 28-point underdog, in one of the most stunning defeats in the program’s storied history.
The then-No. 5 Fighting Irish not only lost to the Huskies at home, but they were manhandled by a Mid-American Conference program that had never beaten an AP top-10 opponent. Northern Illinois outgained the Irish 388-286 in total yardage, converted twice as many first downs, allowed just two plays longer than 19 yards and blocked two field goals.
For the Fighting Irish, who had won 23-13 at Texas A&M in their opener a week before, their season could have been over as it barely started.
“It could have gone sideways fast,” Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden said.
Four months later, the Fighting Irish are somehow one victory away from capturing their first national championship in 36 years.
Notre Dame defeated Penn State 27-24 on Mitch Jeter‘s 41-yard field goal with seven seconds left in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night.
The No. 7 Fighting Irish will play the winner of Friday’s other semifinal between No. 5 Texas and No. 8 Ohio State at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in the Jan. 20 CFP National Championship presented by AT&T.
The team that couldn’t beat a four-touchdown underdog at home has now won 13 consecutive games — with a chance for one more, the biggest of them all.
“I often tell them, in your lowest moments you find out the most about yourself,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “We’ve had low moments, but we had a really low moment Week 2, and these guys battled. We’ve got great leaders. We’ve got great players that chose to put this university and this football program in front of themselves.”
Notre Dame’s coaches and players credit Freeman, who turned 39 at midnight after the game, with keeping the Irish on track after their stunning loss to Northern Illinois. It was an arduous task for a former defensive coordinator who had never been a head coach until he was promoted on Dec. 3, 2021, to replace Brian Kelly, who left for LSU.
“He handled it magnificently,” Golden said. “Just being in that situation, being in that chair like that, that’s tough. There’s no escape from it, but it never got to the locker room. It never got to the team meeting room. He handled all the stress and all the pressure internally, and was the leader that we all needed at that moment.”
Freeman didn’t want the Fighting Irish to wipe the pain of losing to Northern Illinois from their memory. He wanted them to embrace the adversity to remember that they can never take anything for granted.
Freeman’s message to his team was simple: Keep the pain. Don’t let it go.
“I think it really caused us to lock the locker room door and say, ‘Hey, it’s just us. The people in this room are the only things that matter,'” linebacker Jack Kiser said. “I think Coach Freeman’s message and mentality through the rest of the year kind of echoed that.”
The day after the loss to Northern Illinois, defensive tackle Howard Cross III huddled with Freeman and quarterback Riley Leonard.
“It’s the second game of the season,” Cross told them. “I’m not going to go belly up in the second game of the season. We need to keep pushing.”
The Irish won their next 12 games by an average of 27.5 points. Only one of them, a 31-24 victory over Louisville, was decided by fewer than 10.
After reaching the CFP, Notre Dame defeated Indiana 27-17 in a first-round game on Dec. 20, then Georgia 23-10 in a quarterfinal game at the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2.
“I think you learn the most about your team and the guys around you at the lowest points, and we showed who we were after that game,” said receiver Jordan Faison. “After that loss, it was devastating. Everyone felt bad about it, but being able to bounce back kind of shows the team and the grit we’ve got.”
The scar tissue from 124 days ago is what helped the Irish overcome season-ending injuries to several of their best players, including All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison and star pass rusher Rylie Mills.
It’s what helped them overcome injuries in their victory over Penn State. With the Irish trailing 10-0 late in the first half, Leonard had to leave the game after he was hit by defensive tackle Dvon J-Thomas on an incomplete pass. They lost two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Anthonie Knapp and right guard Rocco Spindler, to injuries as well.
While Leonard was being examined for a potential concussion, backup quarterback Steve Angeli came off the bench and led the Irish on a 13-play scoring drive. Jeter kicked a 41-yard field goal on the final play of the half to make it 10-3.
Angeli had attempted only 28 passes this season before Thursday. He completed 6 of 7 attempts for 44 yards on his lone possession.
“We had a lot of confidence in Steve and what he can do, and we weren’t just going to put him in there to hand the ball off,” Freeman said. “We were going to go to try to score, and we ended up scoring three points.”
Leonard cleared concussion protocol at halftime and returned in the second half. He scored on a 3-yard run on the opening drive to tie the score at 10.
The Irish went ahead 17-10 on Jeremiyah Love‘s 2-yard run on the third play of the fourth quarter. But then Penn State tied the score on Nicholas Singleton’s 7-yard run with 10:20 to play.
After Leonard threw his second interception on the next play, Singleton scored again to give the Nittany Lions a 24-17 lead with 7:55 to play.
With less than five minutes remaining, Leonard threw a 54-yard touchdown to Jaden Greathouse, who was wide open after cornerback Cam Miller fell down. Greathouse juked safety Jaylen Reed and ran into the end zone to tie the score at 24.
Leonard completed 15 of 23 passes for 223 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He led the Irish on four scoring drives in the second half.
“He’s a competitor, and competitors find a way to win, and that’s what Riley does,” Freeman said. “That’s what this team does.”
It seemed like the game was headed to overtime after both teams punted in the final minutes.
But with 35 seconds left, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar tried to throw a pass away. Safety Jaylen Sneed hit Allar as he threw, and cornerback Christian Gray intercepted the ball at the Penn State 42 to set up Jeter’s winning field goal.
“That’s what Christian Gray does,” Freeman said. “He makes plays when it matters the most.”
The Fighting Irish will have to make a few more big plays against Ohio State or Texas if they’re going to win their first national championship since 1988. They’ll likely be underdogs in Atlanta, especially if they’re playing the high-powered Buckeyes, but they wouldn’t have it any other way.
“To see how far we’ve come after the hiccup early on, just to know that we have one more guaranteed, one last one guaranteed, it’s just so exciting,” Kiser said.
The Fighting Irish believe they wouldn’t be playing for a national title if they hadn’t been tested like few other teams.
The team that wouldn’t quit somehow keeps winning.
“The time you’re tested the most is when you’re at your lowest point,” Freeman said. “We lose to Northern Illinois and you’ve got a decision: Do I want to be selfless, or am I going to put individual glory ahead of myself? I hope the nation sees no matter what the situation was, this team continues to put Notre Dame in front of [itself].”
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