Unexpected contender tiers: From breakouts we saw coming to… how the heck are they doing this?
In the first few weeks of the season, there’s bound to be some chaos. A bad team or two will go on a hot run, and good teams may face some early hurdles. But the expectation is that once you’re about a month and a half into the season, there will be enough of a sample size to gauge a club’s true potential.
Well, we’re at that mark — and there are some surprising squads contending with typical MLB powers.
Six teams — the Rays, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox and Pirates — are way better than we expected. Are their starts real or not? What’s powering them? And who are the unexpected stars leading their teams to victory?
ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down the unexpected contenders, how they’ve surprised us and their ability to ride this momentum into October.
We knew they’d be good, but not this good
How they’ve surprised us: By bludgeoning teams offensively. The Rays have built a reputation as a plucky franchise that, typically, is sound fundamentally and adept at maximizing matchups and overwhelming opponents with a carousel of dominant pitchers. But this year’s version also leads MLB in several major offensive categories, including home runs. The Rays have finished no better than 10th in the majors in OPS since 2014. This year, they lead there too.
Why it could continue: The Rays play in the sport’s toughest division — the American League East, consistently possess some of the lowest payrolls in the industry and have still won more games than all but two franchises — the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros — since the start of 2019. Winning is what they do. And this might be the most talented team they’ve ever fielded.
Why they could fade: The Rays already lost Jeffrey Springs for the year to Tommy John surgery, and now Drew Rasmussen will be out until August with a flexor strain. That’s two legitimate top-of-the-rotation starters. And though Tyler Glasnow is on his way back — and the Rays are as good as anyone at developing dominant arms — that’s difficult to overcome.
MVP of their surprising start: What might separate this Rays team from past versions is the presence of a young, budding superstar with the ability to be the best player in the game. That man, of course, is Wander Franco, the incredibly talented shortstop who, after an injury-riddled 2022, is living up to his promise in his age-22 season. Several Rays hitters are probably over-performing at the moment, but Franco has the talent to sustain this. The Rays can go as far as he takes them.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sometime in November, assuming the World Series spills into the second-to-last month of the year again. Forget sample size. The Rays are clearly in the conversation for the best team in the sport — offensively, defensively, on the bases, on the mound. They do everything well. And there’s little reason for it to stop. — Gonzalez
We knew they had breakout potential, but they’ve exceeded expectations
How they’ve surprised us: The Orioles were last season’s big surprise, of course, but it seemed likely that they would take at least a mild step back. The overall trend line pointed up but Baltimore outperformed its run differential by several games in 2022 and leaned heavily on the kind of bullpen performance that isn’t easy to replicate. Then over the winter, the Orioles weren’t aggressive when it came to landing veteran foundational types.
And yet, they have once again sprinted past expectations and now have to be looked at as a legitimate postseason contender. Their players just keep getting better and not just the emergent prospects, but young second-chance veterans such as Jorge Mateo. And that unsustainable bullpen performance? The Orioles relievers have been even better in 2023.
Why it could continue: Other than the stunning performance of rookie reliever Yennier Cano, there aren’t a lot of players who are putting up what look like unsustainable numbers. It’s the opposite, really, as the O’s can hope for better production from key players such as Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and Ryan Mountcastle. The pitching staff might get in-season jolts from injury returnee hurlers such as Dillon Tate, Mychal Givens and, later on, John Means. The upward trend of the Orioles hasn’t been steep; it’s been gradual and consistent, and there aren’t any real red flags that warn of impending collapse.
Why they could fade: The Orioles might benefit from the new scheduling formula more than any other team in the majors. But while the frequency of their encounters with division foes Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Toronto is diminished, that’s still the biggest chunk of the schedule. And they still have to jostle with those teams — all legit contenders — for playoff slots. Even in this era of bloated playoff formats, you still can’t squeeze in five teams from the same division. Someone will get left out. As encouraging as the Orioles’ improvement has been, are they really any better than one of those four teams, if they all are healthy-ish and hitting their projections?
MVP of their surprising start: Mateo has been brilliant — hitting for power, driving opponents to distraction on the bases and shining with the glove. This is the version of Mateo we once thought we’d see someday, when he was a touted prospect, and then gave up on ever seeing after he washed out with the San Diego Padres. The Orioles have become a team whose players get better, and no one embodies their improved development processes more than Mateo.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sept. 30. I already touched on the depth of the AL East but the other problem for the Orioles is the AL West, which seems likely to put two teams in the postseason bracket now between the defending champion Astros, the Rangers looking like a newly established power and the Mariners and Angels remaining good enough to make a run. So it’s going to be a smash-mouth derby down the stretch, one that goes into the final days of the season. I think the Orioles will be right there to the end but come up just short. The last day of the regular season is Oct. 1, so I’ll say the last game they play before being eliminated is one day prior. — Doolittle
How they’ve surprised us: By having balance offensively. The Rangers are getting production up and down their lineup, even with Corey Seager spending the past month recovering from a hamstring strain. Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia are still producing, and Marcus Semien has bounced back. Meanwhile, Ezequiel Duran, Josh Jung and Leody Taveras are each carrying an adjusted OPS above league average, and Jonah Heim, Texas’ 6-foot-4 catcher, is hitting out of his mind.
Why it could continue: The Rangers have been without both Seager and Jacob deGrom all month, and yet they continue to win. Their starting rotation is good, their bullpen is solid and their lineup — at least so far — looks deep. The Astros are more talented, the Mariners are deeper and the Angels have more star power, but if their two best players are healthy and right, the Rangers might have just as good a chance as anyone to take the AL West.
Why they could fade: This should be obvious: The Rangers probably won’t go far if deGrom is not healthy. They took a major risk by signing him to a five-year, $185 million contract over the offseason. Everybody in the industry knew it. The Rangers knew it, too. But they also knew this: When deGrom is healthy, he is the best, most electrifying pitcher in the majors. After a rough debut, deGrom posted a 1.35 ERA through his next five starts. But then he began nursing elbow inflammation that will keep him out at least another couple of weeks. Not even two months in, the Rangers are getting the full Jacob deGrom Experience.
MVP of their surprising start: Rangers starting pitchers finished the 2022 season with a 4.63 ERA, ranking 25th in the major leagues. It was a clear area of need for a team looking to vault itself into contention, as evidenced by the activity that dominated the ensuing offseason. But with deGrom hurt and Andrew Heaney battling through a 5.25 ERA, it has been Nathan Eovaldi — perhaps the most unheralded of their starting-pitcher additions — who has provided a major lift, sporting a 2.70 ERA through his first eight starts.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sept. 22. That might seem harsh for a team already nearing a plus-100 run differential, but there are two things working against the Rangers with regard to the standings: The Astros, Mariners and Angels might hang around all year, and it is totally conceivable for the AL East to produce three playoff teams this year. I still think the Astros are the best team in the AL West, and a division title might end up being Texas’ only path to the postseason. Regardless, the Rangers’ last six series will be against the Blue Jays, Guardians, Red Sox, Angels and Mariners, twice. That’s a brutal way to end the regular season. It’s a stretch of games that will probably make or break their year. — Gonzalez
How they’ve surprised us: They’ve played well despite some key players not performing: Jake McCarthy didn’t hit and got sent down to Triple-A; Madison Bumgarner was so bad that the Diamondbacks decided to eat the rest of his contract and release him; and center fielder Alek Thomas and rookie starter Ryne Nelson have both struggled. Arizona has overcome some shaky pitching by scoring runs, primarily thanks to a league-leading batting average and some unexpected production from the likes of Geraldo Perdomo and Pavin Smith.
Why it could continue: The D-backs have two of the best players in the league in underrated ace Zac Gallen and Rookie of the Year candidate Corbin Carroll. Gallen, who had a scoreless streak of 44⅓ innings last season, reeled off a 28-inning scoreless streak over four straight starts this season. They’ve also held their own against the Dodgers and Padres, going a combined 7-7 against their NL West rivals.
Why they could fade: Is there enough in the rotation behind Gallen and Merrill Kelly? So far, no. Besides Nelson’s slow start, Brandon Pfaadt, the team’s top pitching prospect, got called up and was hammered in his first two starts, allowing 13 runs and six home runs. That could spell trouble for Arizona, as its playoff hopes may reside in the effectiveness of Nelson, Pfaadt and fellow rookie Drey Jameson.
MVP of their surprising start: Gallen. Carroll has been one of the most entertaining players in the majors with his combination of speed and power, but Gallen looks primed to improve upon his 2022 Cy Young finish, when he placed fifth in the voting. His swing-and-miss rate on his curveball has increased from 33% to 44% — no wonder he’s throwing it more than ever. That helps him rack up the strikeouts despite a fastball velocity of 93.5 mph.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: The National League is likely to include at least one wild-card team with fewer than 90 wins — there were two last season — so that will keep any team around .500 mathematically alive with two weeks to go. Starting with their final series of August, the D-backs will have a road series at Dodger Stadium, plus two separate trips to New York to play the Mets and Yankees — before closing at home against the Astros. I’ll say they get officially eliminated in their finale at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 24. — Schoenfield
All that angst and they’re actually pretty good
How they’ve surprised us: Let’s see here. Last year was viewed as a disaster after they went 78-84, so that angered Red Sox Nation. Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres, which angered Red Sox Nation. They needed pitching, but their big move was signing Corey Kluber, so that angered Red Sox Nation. They didn’t seem to have a plan at shortstop, which … well, you know. Expectations hadn’t been so low in Boston since the forgettable Butch Hobson years in the early ’90s. So what has happened? The offense has been really good, with Rafael Devers slugging home runs and the outfield trio of Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran all with OPS+ figures above 130. The late-game bullpen with closer Kenley Jansen has also been terrific.
Why it could continue: The offense will continue to score. Yoshida has shown why the Red Sox gave him $90 million — and silenced the critics who thought the Red Sox overpaid. Duran has been the big surprise after struggling in 2022 and beginning the season in Triple-A (where he hit .195 in 11 games). His hard-hit rates have been legit, however, and he has also played well in center field. There’s also the chance the offense will get better if Triston Casas can start hitting (he’s at least drawing walks, which is a positive). As for the starting pitching: There’s nowhere to go but up, as the rotation has been among the worst in the majors.
Why they could fade: Yeah, that rotation. The best thing you can say is that Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta and Kluber have made all their starts — but each has an ERA over 5.00 (and three of them are over 6.00). Brayan Bello has showcased a great arm but he has a 5.01 ERA. James Paxton made his Red Sox debut Friday, just his second start in the past three seasons, so who knows if he’ll be able to contribute. There’ll be some improvement from at least a couple of those guys, but this still doesn’t have the look or feel of a playoff-caliber rotation.
MVP of their surprising start: Call it a three-way tie between Verdugo, Yoshida and Devers, but the Red Sox made a run after a slow start when Yoshida got hurt. He was phenomenal during a 16-game hitting streak from April 20 to May 7, slashing .438/.479/.750 with 5 home runs, 18 RBIs and 14 runs as the Red Sox went 11-5 in that stretch.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: The Red Sox finish the season with four games in Baltimore. Will those games matter? I’ll say the first two will, with the Red Sox still battling for a wild card until that final weekend. Alas, they will fall just short as the starting pitching can’t hold up and the bullpen fades just enough. — Schoenfield
Where the heck did this come from?!
How they’ve surprised us: The Pirates raced to the lead in the NL Central on the strength of quality starting pitching, daring running on the basepaths and keeping opponents in the park. They’ve had some surprising starts from veterans such as Andrew McCutchen, Connor Joe and Carlos Santana. And they’ve had real improvement from prospects and young veterans alike, such as Jack Suwinski and Mitch Keller.
Why it could continue: Well, the division may not be that great, but someone is still probably going to have to win 86 to 90 games to take it. The Pirates stashed a lot of early wins, so that’s the first step. They won without getting much from Oneil Cruz, who was injured early, and his eventual return could be a major boost just when they need it.
Why they could fade: Because they already are? After Pittsburgh won on April 29 to go a season-best 12 games over .500 (20-8), they proceeded to lose 11 of 13 games and were outscored 66-18 during those games. It’s one of those matters of perspective. If we told you before the season that the Bucs would be over .500 and leading the division heading into the second week of May, you’d be shocked. If we told you what happened after that, you’d probably say something like, “Well, that figures.” That’s still where this team is at in the rebuilding process.
MVP of their surprising start: Keller has been stellar and looks like he’s on the verge of establishing himself as a legit front-of-the-rotation starter. I feel like he was pretty good last year, too, but we missed it because the Pirates were so bad overall and his career record (12-29, 5.00 ERA) was still pretty ugly. But Keller is showing real signs of improvement this season, with more strikeouts, fewer walks and vastly improved consistency.
Predicted date of their last meaningful game: Sept. 20. If the Pirates can stay on track to make a run at .500, they should be within a stone’s throw of NL Central contention up to and a little beyond Labor Day. Right now, my simulations have the Pirates landing at around 79 wins, with the Milwaukee Brewers taking the division with around 87 wins. That gap keeps Pirates fans engaged into the third week of September, where they can say, “Hey, one hot streak and you never know.” That would make this a fine building-block season for a club looking to turn the corner soon. The Pirates have a three-game set at Wrigley Field late in the season, around the time when I could see them being eliminated, so I’ll say the middle game of that series will be it. — Doolittle
Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is a National League All-Star replacement, giving the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander a chance to break Paul Skenes‘ record for the fewest big league appearances before playing in the Midsummer Classic.
Misiorowski was named Friday night to replace Chicago Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, who will be unavailable for the All-Star Game on Tuesday night in Atlanta because he is scheduled to start Saturday at the New York Yankees.
The 23-year-old Misiorowski has made just five starts for the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA while averaging 99.3 mph on his fastball, with 89 pitches that have reached 100 mph.
If he pitches at Truist Park, Misiorowski will make it consecutive years for a player to set the mark for fewest big league games before an All-Star showing.
Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander getting ready for his second All-Star appearance, had made 11 starts in the majors when he was chosen as the NL starter for last year’s All-Star Game at Texas. He pitched a scoreless inning.
“I’m speechless,” said a teary-eyed Misiorowski, who said he was given the news a few minutes before the Brewers’ 8-3 victory over Washington. “It’s awesome. It’s very unexpected and it’s an honor.”
Misiorowski is the 30th first-time All-Star and 16th replacement this year. There are now 80 total All-Stars.
“He’s impressive. He’s got some of the best stuff in the game right now, even though he’s a young pitcher,” said Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is a starting AL outfielder for his seventh All-Star nod. “He’s going to be a special pitcher in this game for a long time so I think he deserved it and it’s going be pretty cool for him and his family.”
Carlos Rodón, Carlos Estévez and Casey Mize were named replacement pitchers on the AL roster.
The New York Yankees‘ Rodón, an All-Star for the third time in five seasons, will replace teammate Max Fried for Tuesday’s game in Atlanta. Fried will be unavailable because he is scheduled to start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs.
In his final start before the All-Star game, Rodón allowed four hits and struck out eight in eight innings in an 11-0 victory over the Cubs.
“This one’s a little special for me,” said Rodón, an All-Star in 2021 and ’22 who was 3-8 in his first season with the Yankees two years ago before rebounding. “I wasn’t good when I first got here, and I just wanted to prove that I wasn’t to going to give up and just put my best foot forward and try to win as many games as I can.”
The Kansas City Royals‘ Estévez replaces Texas’ Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to start at Houston on Saturday night. Estévez was a 2023 All-Star when he was with the Los Angeles Angels.
Mize takes the spot held by Boston‘s Garrett Crochet, who is scheduled to start Saturday against Tampa Bay. Mize gives the Tigers six All-Stars, most of any team and tied for the franchise record.
Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia will replace Tampa Bay‘s Brandon Lowe, who went on the injured list with left oblique tightness. The additions of Estévez and Garcia give the Royals four All-Stars, matching their 2024 total.
The Seattle Mariners announced center fielder Julio Rodríguez will not participate, and he was replaced by teammate Randy Arozarena. Rodríguez had been voted onto the AL roster via the players’ ballot. The Mariners, who have five All-Stars, said Rodríguez will use the break to “recuperate, rest and prepare for the second half.”
Arozarena is an All-Star for the second time. He started in left field for the AL two years ago, when he was with Tampa Bay. Arozarena was the runner-up to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the 2023 Home Run Derby.
Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen, a first-time All-Star, is replacing Angels left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is scheduled to start Saturday night at Arizona. Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts.
San Diego added a third NL All-Star reliever in lefty Adrián Morejón, who replaces Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler. The Phillies’ right-hander is scheduled to start at San Diego on Saturday night. Morejón entered the weekend with a 1.71 ERA in 45 appearances.
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David Schoenfield
We’re past due to hand out some midseason grades, so let’s hand out some midseason grades.
As we pass the 90-game mark in the 2025 MLB season, my team of the first half isn’t the well-rounded Detroit Tigers, who do get our highest grade for owning MLB’s best record, or the explosive Chicago Cubs or Shohei Ohtani‘s Los Angeles Dodgers, but a team most baseball fans love to hate: the Houston Astros. They lost their two best players from last season and their best hitter has been injured — and they’re playing their best baseball since they won the 2022 World Series.
Let’s get to the grades. As always, we’re grading off preseason expectations, factoring in win-loss record and quality of performance, while looking at other positive performances and injuries.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Tarik Skubal is obviously the headline act, but the Tigers are winning with impressive depth across the entire roster.
Javier Baez is putting together a remarkable comeback season after a couple of abysmal years and will become the first player to start an All-Star Game at both shortstop and in the outfield. Former No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson have put together their own comeback stories, while Riley Greene has matured into one of the game’s top power hitters.
Given their deep well of prospects and contributors at the MLB level, no team is better positioned than the Tigers to add significant help at the trade deadline.
I heard someone refer to them as the Zombie Astros, which feels apropos. Alex Bregman left as a free agent, they traded Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez has been injured and has just three home runs, and the Jose Altuve experiment in left field predictably fizzled.
But here they are, fighting for the best record in the majors and holding a comfortable lead in the AL West. They’re getting star turns from Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena, while the risky decision to start Cam Smith in the majors with very little minor league experience has paid off, as he has now become their cleanup hitter.
If we ignore the COVID-19 season, the Astros look on their way to an eighth straight division title.
This could be at least a half-grade higher based on everything that has gone right: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s attention-grabbing breakout, Tucker doing everything expected after the big trade, Seiya Suzuki‘s monster power numbers and Matthew Boyd‘s All-Star turn in the rotation. The Cubs are on pace for their most wins since their World Series title season in 2016.
There have been a few hiccups, however, especially in the rotation with Justin Steele‘s season-ending injury and Ben Brown‘s inconsistency, plus rookie third baseman Matt Shaw has scuffled, and the bench has been weak aside from their backup catchers.
Still, this is a powerhouse lineup, and the Cubs will seek to improve their rotation at the deadline.
They just keep winning of late, going from 25-27 and seven games behind the Yankees on May 25 to taking over first place from the slumping Bronx Bombers, a remarkable turnaround over just 36 games. They went 27-9 over a 36-game stretch ending with their eighth win in a row on Sunday.
George Springer‘s recent surge has been fun to watch, a reminder of how good he was at his peak, and Addison Barger has been mashing over the past two months.
Some of the stats don’t add up to the Blue Jays being this good — they’ve barely outscored their opponents — but there might be more offense in the tank from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a healthy Anthony Santander, and the bullpen, a soft spot, is the easiest area to upgrade.
Their success is best summed up by the fact that Freddy Peralta is their lone All-Star, but they have a whole bunch of players who have contributed between 1 and 2 WAR.
Brandon Woodruff looked good Sunday in his first start in nearly two years, so that could be a huge boost for the second half.
I’m curious to see how Jackson Chourio performs as well. While his counting stats — extra-base hits, RBIs — are fine, his triple-slash line remains below last season, especially his OBP. He had a huge second half in 2024 (.310/.363/.552), and if he does that again, the Brewers could find themselves back in the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons.
The Rays started off slow, with a losing record through the end of April, but then went 33-22 in May and June to claw back into the AL East race — as the Rays usually do, last year being the recent exception.
Two key performers have been All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, who has a chance to become just the third player to hit 40 home runs in his age-21 season, and All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Due to the league wanting the Rays to play more home games early in the season, the July and August slate will be very road-heavy, so we’ll see how the Rays adapt to a difficult two-month stretch, especially since their pitching isn’t quite as deep as it has been in other seasons.
No, they’re not going to be the greatest team of all time. But they might win 100 games — even though Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, their huge offseason acquisitions, have combined for just two wins in 10 starts.
The lineup, of course, has been terrific, with Ohtani leading the NL in several categories and Will Smith leading the batting race. By wRC+, it’s been the best offense in Dodgers history.
If they can get some combo of Snell, Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow healthy, plus Ohtani eventually ramped up to a bigger workload on the mound, the Dodgers still loom as World Series favorites.
They are on pace for 95 wins, mainly on the strength of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, who are a combined 23-7 with 11.8 WAR. Jesus Luzardo‘s ERA is bloated due to that two-start stretch when he allowed 20 runs, but he has otherwise been solid as well.
But, overall, it hasn’t always been the smoothest of treks. The bullpen has imploded a few times and the offense has lacked power aside from Kyle Schwarber. Bryce Harper is back after missing three weeks, and they need to get his bat going. Look for some bullpen additions at the trade deadline — and perhaps an outfielder as well.
The Cardinals have been a minor surprise — perhaps even to the Cardinals themselves. St. Louis was viewing this as a rebuilding year of sorts — not that the Cardinals ever hit rock bottom and start completely over. They had a hot May, winning 12 of 13 at one point, but the offense has been fading of late, with those three straight shutout losses to Pittsburgh and six shutout losses since June 25.
The starting rotation doesn’t generate a lot of swing and miss, with both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas seeing their ERAs starting to climb. Brendan Donovan is the team’s only All-Star rep, and that kind of sums up this team: solid but without any star power. That might foretell a second-half fade.
All-Star starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, plus a dominant bullpen, have led the way, although after starting 12-4, the Giants have basically been a .500 team for close to three months now. Rafael Devers hasn’t yet ignited the offense since coming over from Boston, and the Giants have lost four 1-0 games.
These final three games at home against the Dodgers before the All-Star break will be a crucial series, as Los Angeles has slowly pulled away in the NL West.
This was an “A-plus” through June 12, when the Mets were 45-24 and owned the best record in baseball, even though Juan Soto hadn’t gotten hot. Soto finally got going in June, but the pitching collapsed, and the Mets went through a disastrous 1-10 stretch.
The rotation injuries have piled up, exacerbating the lack of bullpen depth. Recent games have been started by Justin Hagenman (who had a 6.21 ERA in Triple-A), journeyman reliever Chris Devenski, Paul Blackburn (7.71 ERA) and Frankie Montas, who has had to start even though he’s clearly not throwing the ball well. The Mets need to get the rotation healthy, but also could use more offense from Mark Vientos and their catchers (Francisco Alvarez was demoted to Triple-A).
At times it has felt like Cal Raleigh has been a one-man team with his record-breaking first half. But he will be joined on the All-Star squad by starting pitcher Bryan Woo, closer Andres Munoz and center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who made it on the strength of his defense, as his offense has been a disappointment.
The offense has been one of the best in the majors on the road, but the rotation has been nowhere near as effective as the past couple of seasons, with George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missing time with injuries. They just shut out the Pirates three games in a row, so maybe that will get the rotation on a roll.
They’re just out of the wild-card picture while hanging around .500, so we give them a decent grade since that exceeds preseason expectations. It feels like a little bit of a mirage given their run differential — their record in one-run games (good) versus their record in blowout games (not good) — and various holes across the lineup and pitching staff.
But they’ve done two things to keep them in the race. One, they hit a lot of home runs. Two, they’re the only team in the majors to use just five starting pitchers. The rotation hasn’t been stellar, but it’s been stable.
The Padres are probably fortunate to be where they are, given some of their issues. As expected, the offensive depth has been a problem.
Not as expected, Dylan Cease has struggled while Michael King‘s injury after a strong start has left them without last year’s dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation (although Nick Pivetta has been one of the best signings of the offseason). Yu Darvish just made his season debut Monday, so hopefully he’ll provide a lift.
The Padres haven’t played well against the better teams, including a 2-5 record against the Dodgers, but they did clean up against the Athletics, Rockies and Pirates, going 16-2 against those three teams.
For now, the Reds are stuck in neutral. Leave out 2022, when they lost 100 games, and it’s otherwise been a string of .500-ish seasons: 31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021, 82-80 in 2023, 77-85 in 2024 and now a similar record so far in 2025.
The hope was that Terry Francona would be a difference-maker. Maybe that will play out down the stretch, but the best hope is to get the rotation clicking on all cylinders at the same time. That means Andrew Abbott continuing his breakout performance, plus getting Hunter Greene healthy again and rookie Chase Burns to live up to the hype after a couple of shaky outings following an impressive MLB debut.
Throw in Nick Lodolo and solid Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, and this group can be good enough to pitch the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance since 2013.
The Yankees have hit their annual midseason swoon — which has been subject to much intense analysis from their disgruntled fans — and that opening weekend sweep of the Brewers, when the Yankees’ torpedo bats were the big story in baseball, now seems long ago.
Going from seven up to three back in such a short time is a disaster — but not disastrous. Nonetheless, the Yankees will have to do some hard-core self-evaluation heading to the trade deadline.
The offense wasn’t going to be as good as it was in April, when Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham and Ben Rice were all playing over their heads. So, do they need a hitter? Or with Clarke Schmidt now likely joining Gerrit Cole as a Tommy John casualty, do they need a starting pitcher? Or both?
From the book of “things we didn’t expect,” page 547: The Marlins are averaging more runs per game than the Orioles, Padres, Braves and Rangers, to name a few teams. They’re averaging almost as many runs per game as the Mets, and last time we checked, the Marlins weren’t the team to give Soto $765 million.
An eight-game winning streak at the end of June has the Marlins going toe-to-toe with the Braves for third place in the NL East even though the starting rotation has been a mess, with Sandy Alcantara on track to become just the fourth qualified pitcher with an ERA over 7.00.
Heading into the season, I thought that if any team was going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, it would be the Diamondbacks. The offense has once again been one of the best in the majors, but the pitching issues have been painful.
After the aggressive move to sign Corbin Burnes, he went down with Tommy John surgery after 11 starts. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt each have an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00. Rodriguez was better in June before a shellacking on July 4, while Gallen remains homer-prone, so it’s hard to tell if improvement is on the horizon. Their playoff odds are hovering just under 20%, so there’s a chance, but they need to get red-hot like they did last July and August.
It feels like it has been more soap opera than baseball season in Boston, with the Devers drama finally ending with the shocking trade with the Giants.
If you give added weight that this is the Red Sox, a team that should be operating with the big boys in both budget and aspirations and instead seemed to only want to dump Devers’ contract, then feel free to lower this grade a couple of notches, even if the Red Sox are close in the wild-card standings.
On the field, the heralded rookie trio of Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer hasn’t exactly clicked, with Campbell returning to the minors after posting a .902 OPS in April. A big test will come out of the All-Star break, when they play the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Twins and Astros in a tough 15-game stretch.
After last season’s surprise playoff appearance, it’s been a frustrating 2025 — although I’m not sure this result is necessarily a surprise.
There were concerns about the offense heading into the season and those concerns have proven correct. They were getting no production from their outfield, so they rushed Jac Caglianone to the majors to much hype, but he has struggled and might need a reset back in Triple-A. Even Bobby Witt Jr., as good as he has been (on pace for 7.5 WAR), has seen his OPS drop 140 points.
On the bright side, Kris Bubic emerged as an All-Star starter and Noah Cameron has filled in nicely for the injured Cole Ragans, so maybe they trade a starter for some offense.
Coming off a catastrophic 2024 season, nobody was expecting anything from the White Sox. Indeed, another 121-loss season loomed as a possibility. While they’re on pace to lose 100 again, they’ve at least played more competitive baseball thanks to their pitching.
Rookie starters Shane Smith and Sean Burke have shown promise, while rookie position players Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and now Colson Montgomery are getting their initial taste of the majors.
There has been the mix of calamity: Luis Robert Jr. has been unproductive and is probably now untradable, and former No. 3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn hit .189 and was traded to the Brewers.
The Twins are one organization that might like a do-over of the past five seasons. It feels like they’ve had the most talent in the division, but all they’ve done is squeeze out one soft division title in 2023. Now, the Tigers have passed them in talent and other factors, such as payroll flexibility.
There’s still time for the Twins to turn things around in 2025, but outside of that wonderful 13-game winning streak, they haven’t played winning baseball.
Overall, it’s been yet another bad season, despite Paul Skenes‘ brilliance. Really, do we talk enough about him? Yes, we do talk about him, but he has a 1.95 ERA through his first 42 career starts. Incredible.
Here’s an amazing thing about baseball. The Pirates are not a good team, but they recently put together one of the best six-game stretches in history. That’s not stretching the description. First, they swept the Mets — a good team — by scores of 9-1, 9-2 and 12-1. Then they swept the Cardinals — a good team — with three shutouts, 7-0, 1-0 and 5-0. They became the first team since at least 1901 to score 43 runs or more and allow four runs or fewer in a six-game stretch. And then they promptly got shut out three games in a row, making them the first to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight shutouts.
Eighteen of our 28 voters picked them to win the AL West before the season, but it’s looking more and more like the 2023 World Series might be a stone-cold fluke in the middle of a string of losing seasons. That year, nearly everyone in the lineup had a career year at the plate, and the pitching got hot at the right time.
This year’s Rangers, though, have struggled to score runs, and while some have pointed to the offensive environment at Globe Life Field, they’re near the bottom in road OPS as well. It’s been fun seeing Jacob deGrom back at a dominating level, and Nathan Eovaldi should have been an All-Star.
Put it this way: If the Rangers can somehow squeeze into the postseason, you don’t want to face the Rangers in a short series. Indeed, if any team looms as an October upset special, it might be the Rangers.
The Nationals received superlative first-half performances from James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, while CJ Abrams is on the way to his best season. But there remains a lack of overall organizational progress, which finally led to the firings on Sunday of longtime GM Mike Rizzo and longtime manager Dave Martinez. A 7-19 record in June sealed their fate, as the rotation has been bad and the bullpen arguably the worst in baseball.
Until the Nationals figure out how to improve their pitching — or, better yet, find an owner who wants to win — they will be stuck going nowhere.
That fell apart in a hurry. Sunday’s loss was Cleveland’s 10th in a row, a stretch that remarkably included five shutouts. Indeed, the Guardians have now been shut out 11 times; the franchise record in the post-dead-ball-era (since 1920) is 20 shutouts in 1968.
There’s nothing worse than watching a team that can’t score runs, so that tells you how exciting the Guardians have been. Last year, the Guardians hit exceptionally well with runners in scoring position, keeping afloat what was otherwise a mediocre offense. That hasn’t happened in 2025 (trading Josh Naylor didn’t help either). Throw in some predictable regression from the bullpen, and this season looks lost.
We can’t give this a complete failing grade due to the emergence of All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson (the Athletics’ first All-Star starter since Josh Donaldson in 2014) and slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who have a chance to finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting. Plus, we have Denzel Clarke‘s circus catches in center field.
But otherwise? Ugh. The Sacramento gamble already looks like a disaster, three months into a three-year stay. The team is drawing well below Sutter Health Park’s 14,000-seat capacity, with many recent games drawing under 10,000 fans. Luis Severino bashed the small crowds and the lack of air-conditioning.
The A’s had a groundbreaking ceremony for their new park in Vegas, renting heavy construction equipment as background props. Maybe they should have spent that money on more pitching help.
Based on preseason expectations, the Braves have clearly been the biggest disappointment in the National League — fighting the Orioles for most disappointing overall.
What’s gone wrong? They haven’t scored runs, as the offense continues its remarkable fade from a record-setting performance just two seasons ago. The collapses of Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies lead the way, with lack of production at shortstop and left field playing a big role as well. Closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled, and the team is 11-22 in one-run games. Spencer Strider hasn’t yet reached his pre-injury level and Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before going down.
The Braves haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017, but that run is clearly in jeopardy.
The Orioles have a similar record to the Braves but have played much worse, including losses of 24-2, 19-5, 15-3 and two separate 9-0 shutouts.
They will spend the trade deadline dealing away as many of their impending free agents as possible, and then do a lot of soul-searching heading into the offseason. After making the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, will this season just be a blip? While the pitching struggles aren’t necessarily a big surprise, what has happened to the offense? Are some of their young players prospects or suspects?
After two months of Cleveland Spiders-level baseball, it would be easy to make fun of the Rockies. Especially since they recently announced Walker Monfort — son of the owner — was promoted to executive VP and will replace outgoing president and COO Greg Feasel.
On the other hand, the Rockies are doing something right: They just drew 121,000 for a three-game series against the White Sox.
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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — Former White Sox lefty Mark Buehrle was forever immortalized inside Rate Field as the team unveiled a statue in his honor Friday.
Buehrle, 46, played 16 years in the majors, including the first 12 with the White Sox, who he helped win a World Series in 2005. He won 214 games and pitched 200 innings or more in 14 consecutive seasons from 2001 to 2014.
“I can’t put it into words,” Buehrle said after the unveiling. “You don’t play the game for any of this. You never think of number retirements or statues. I can’t even wrap my head around it. It doesn’t make sense.”
The statue is an action shot of him throwing a pitch.
His wife and kids were in attendance and helped pull off the cover to unveil the statue while his 2005 teammates looked on. The event kicked off a weekend reunion for the World Series team which went 11-1 in the postseason, beating the Houston Astros in four games to take home the title.
Buehrle was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, finishing fifth in Cy Young voting in 2005.
“Well-deserved,” former right fielder Jermaine Dye said of the statue. “Great teammate. Great leader. Definitely someone you want on a ballclub to lead a pitching staff.”
The White Sox rotation — led by Buehrle — threw four complete games in the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox in 2005, missing a fifth complete game by two-thirds of an inning. It’s an unheard of accomplishment in today’s game since starters infrequently go the distance.
Besides being an innings-eater on the mound, Buehrle was a fast worker — a favorite trait of his catcher, A.J Pierzynski. And he wasn’t someone who threw a lot of different pitches. He caught it and threw it without much input from behind the plate.
“He was fast,” Pierzynski said. “We had Jermaine Dye calling pitches from right field some games. We did come crazy things you wouldn’t recommend to people to do nowadays.”
Buehrle is a notoriously low-key guy who hates the spotlight but even he was moved by the team’s decision to honor him with a statue, which joins former slugger Harold Baines in the right-field concourse.
“I joked with him when I saw him,” Dye said. “I told him ‘Man it takes you getting a statue to get you out of the house.'”
Buehrle added: “I was literally nervous as can be today. This is not my comfort zone but by no means am I taking it lightly. This is incredible.”
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