
College football’s most intriguing September games, coaches under pressure and exciting newcomers
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adminWe’re less than 100 days away from the start of the 2023 college football season, and the full September schedule is being released. So we’re gearing up for what the first month of the campaign will have to offer.
Our reporters break down must-see games for September, identify newcomers to watch and address questions that are still lingering. Plus, Adam Rittenberg lists coaches who are already on the hot seat, and Heather Dinich breaks down how September will impact the College Football Playoff picture.
Jump to: September’s must-see games | Playoff | Under pressure
Newcomers | Unanswered questions | Teams in new places
Most intriguing September games
LSU vs. Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, Sept. 3 on ABC/ESPN App). The 2022 season opener between these two teams delivered a wild, heart-stopping, back-and-forth game that ended up being one of the most memorable of the campaign. But the stakes for both teams are vastly different headed into their season opener this year, this time in Orlando. Florida State used the win over LSU last year to help propel the program to its first 10-win season since 2016, and with the vast majority of its team returning, the expectation is for the Seminoles to be big-time contenders this year. Meanwhile, LSU also goes into this season with huge expectations in Year 2 under Brian Kelly, coming off an unexpected 10 wins of its own. There is already talk this game could have College Football Playoff implications. At the very least, we will get a sense of whether these teams are for real in 2023. Get your popcorn ready. — Andrea Adelson
Texas at Alabama (7 p.m. ET, Sept. 9 on ESPN/ESPN App). The dynamics for both teams entering this year’s matchup in Tuscaloosa are fascinating. Alabama needs to catch Georgia and reclaim its spot atop the college football kingdom, while sorting out a quarterback situation that added a layer with Tyler Buchner‘s transfer from Notre Dame. Texas enters its final year in the Big 12 without any CFP appearances and no conference titles since 2009. Coach Steve Sarkisian needs to deliver the results that match his playcalling and recruiting prowess. Texas largely outplayed Alabama last year before Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young saved the day. A road win for the Longhorns would put them squarely on the CFP radar and create more angst around Nick Saban and Alabama. A convincing Alabama win would propel the team into SEC play, where the home schedule (Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU) favors the Tide. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State at Notre Dame (Sept. 23, time and network TBD): A season-opening victory over Notre Dame in Columbus helped furnish Ohio State‘s résumé last year — in light of a second straight defeat to Michigan — on its way to reaching the College Football Playoff. By the time Ohio State touches down at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana, for the first time since 1996, whoever wins the QB competition between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown to succeed C.J. Stroud will have had a road trip to the Indiana Hoosiers under their belt. But Marcus Freeman’s team will offer a stiffer test, especially with Wake Forest import Sam Hartman under center. — Blake Baumgartner
Tennessee at Florida (Sept. 16, time and network TBD): Tennessee won for only the second time in the schools’ past 18 meetings a season ago, fueling the Vols to their first 11-win campaign since 2001. Josh Heupel was able to break through in only his second year as Tennessee’s coach. The venue shifts to the Swamp on Sept. 16. Billy Napier, entering his second year as Florida‘s coach, gets a chance in front of the home folks to show he has the Gators heading in the right direction after their 6-7 finish in 2022. The obvious question: If Heupel could do it in two years (especially in the shadow of an NCAA investigation), why can’t Napier? Each team will have a new starting quarterback. And the Gators will be facing their second preseason top-15 team in the first three weeks of the season; they open at Utah on Aug. 31. — Chris Low
Pitt at West Virginia (Sept. 16, time and network TBD). This isn’t going to be the most talented matchup you’ll see in September, but it will be the most hate-filled. The Backyard Brawl ended an 11-year hiatus last season at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with the Panthers coming out on top 38-31. While the revival last year was great for the teams and for college football, many in the rivalry would tell you it is different when it’s played in Morgantown, with stories of Mountaineers fans throwing anything they can find at the Pitt bus as it rolls up to the stadium. Pitt hasn’t won in Morgantown since 2007, when it spoiled the Mountaineers’ BCS title hopes with a 13-9 decision. The energy of the feud didn’t go away despite the long pause, and it will be nothing less than at its peak in Morgantown. — Harry Lyles Jr.
South Carolina at Georgia (Sept. 16, 3:30 p.m., CBS): All due respect to UT Martin and Ball State, but this will be Georgia‘s first real test of the 2023 season. The Bulldogs, fresh off back-to-back national championships, have some questions to answer. Chief among them: Who will start at quarterback now that Stetson Bennett is gone? Will it be Carson Beck or Brock Vandagriff? Neither has much experience. And what about the defense now that Jalen Carter, Chris Smith and Kelee Ringo have left? This team has recruited at an elite level since Kirby Smart arrived in 2015, but don’t lose sight of those 25 NFL draft picks over the past two seasons. That’s a lot of talent to replace. Meanwhile, South Carolina has Spencer Rattler back at quarterback and is riding a wave of momentum, after beating top-10 teams Tennessee and Clemson to close out the 2022 regular season and losing a close game to Notre Dame in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. — Alex Scarborough
USC at Colorado (Sept. 30, time and network TBD): For the past several seasons, this matchup has had no real consequence or fanfare. This year, that changes with the arrival of Deion Sanders in Boulder. If we’re being honest, every Colorado game will have some level of noteworthiness or excitement surrounding it. But this one, in particular, sticks out due to the parallel nature of the teams. Lincoln Riley was the newcomer last season, and he proceeded to take USC from a 4-8 squad to a team that was one win away from the College Football Playoff. That kind of leap isn’t expected of Sanders, but with the hype still very much present around him, the matchup with Riley will be an attention grabber, nonetheless. Plus, this will be an entertaining duel that we might get only once given USC is headed to the Big Ten after this season. — Paolo Uggetti
What we’ll learn about the playoff in September
Hey Texas, are you back?! No really … for real this time?
A win at Alabama on Sept. 9 will help answer that, and it would legitimize Texas as an early College Football Playoff contender. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas at Alabama will have the biggest impact on the playoff race of any of the September nonconference games, and it’s one of the eight most impactful games of the regular season.
It’s certainly possible for Alabama and Texas to finish in the top four together — especially if they win their respective leagues — but if they are competing for a top-four spot with similar records, the selection committee could use the head-to-head result as one of the tiebreakers.
Texas could ultimately have a win over the SEC champion — and not win the Big 12. That’s a scenario that could mirror what happened to Ohio State this past season, which might not have finished in the top four last fall without its season-opening win against Notre Dame.
But in a four-team CFP, it is more complicated than just winning; that win needs to continue to resonate. For Ohio State last season, the Fighting Irish finished as a top-25 team, bolstering the Buckeyes’ final résumé and helping Ohio State compensate for not winning the Big Ten East division. The same scenario could unfold this year, with Ohio State at Notre Dame on Sept. 23. The winner of that game will earn instant credibility among CFP committee members, while the loser will be under tremendous pressure for the rest of the season.
Bottom line: For September games to continue to matter, both teams have to stay relevant. That wasn’t the case for Florida State last year, which eked out a one-point win over eventual SEC West champion LSU but couldn’t do anything with it because the Seminoles lost three straight to Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson. Expectations are higher in Tallahassee, and a convincing win in Week 1 against an even better LSU team would validate that.
September also can have a negative impact on contenders’ playoff hopes. Once again, Michigan has a weak nonconference lineup, starting September against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green — teams that each finished with at least five losses last season. It would only be a factor if Michigan doesn’t win the Big Ten again. If the Wolverines lose to either Ohio State or Penn State, they’d likely have only one statement win — and no conference title — for the committee to consider.
— Heather Dinich
Coaches who need to get off to a hot start
The 2023 college coaching hot seat doesn’t have the same sense of inevitable doom as last season’s.
Unlike in 2022, when four coaches — Nebraska‘s Scott Frost, Arizona State‘s Herm Edwards, Georgia Tech‘s Geoff Collins and Auburn‘s Bryan Harsin — began the season with little to no chance of making it through, those currently feeling the heat still have a chance to change course. West Virginia‘s Neal Brown, who survived a tumultuous season while the athletic director who hired him (Shane Lyons) did not, might be the only major conference coach who needs a quick start to avoid the increasingly popular early-season to midseason dismissal. The Mountaineers will face Penn State, Pitt, Texas Tech and TCU — all in September — in a stiff challenge for Brown, who enters his fifth season at 22-25.
Other than Brown, few notable coaches are squarely on the hot seat. Syracuse‘s Dino Babers likely needs a solid September after a poor finish to the 2022 season. Justin Wilcox can’t fall further behind in an improving Pac-12, although Cal‘s financial and administrative challenges could save him. Jimbo Fisher’s situation will be hotly debated if Texas A&M stumbles early, but his bloated contract makes a dismissal expensive, if not impossible. Coach-friendly contracts also favor Northwestern‘s Pat Fitzgerald, Indiana‘s Tom Allen and others who have endured recent struggles. Still, they could benefit from strong starts, as could Missouri‘s Eliah Drinkwitz and a host of Group of 5 coaches, including Memphis‘ Ryan Silverfield and Arkansas State‘s Butch Jones.
The upcoming coaching cycle could be on the lighter side, possibly a residual effect of the historic 2021 carousel and last year’s, which featured 24 total changes and surprise moves at Wisconsin, Stanford and Louisville. But the carousel only needs an A-list job or two to open, either through firing, retirement or NFL exit, for things to become wild again.
What could those jobs be? Texas A&M certainly will be watched. Florida coach Billy Napier deserves more time to implement a layered plan, but what if the team endures a losing season? Jim Harbaugh’s NFL discussions have become an annual annoyance for Michigan, but what if a pro squad gives him the opportunity he seems to covet? Harbaugh’s teams have become more than an annoyance for Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who tries to avoid a third loss to the Wolverines. The job pressure around Day is fan-created, but continued struggles against Michigan could nudge one of the nation’s top quarterback coaches closer to the NFL.
Several prominent coaches will be on the annual retirement radar, with none more significant than Alabama’s Nick Saban, who turns 72 on Halloween. Others being watched include North Carolina‘s Mack Brown (turns 72 on Aug. 27), Iowa‘s Kirk Ferentz (turns 68 on Aug. 1) and Utah‘s Kyle Whittingham (turns 64 on Nov. 21).
Calling for a coaching cycle to be light or dull essentially guarantees chaos, but don’t expect the run of early firings like in 2022. When November rolls around, though, all bets are off.
— Rittenberg
Newcomers we’re most excited to see
Clemson DL Peter Woods. Much has been made of Woods’ exceptional play as an early enrollee this spring, which has everybody in the Clemson fan base excited to see what happens when the season opens. Clemson spent nearly all of last season banged up along its defensive line, but with veterans Xavier Thomas, Tyler Davis and Ruke Orhorhoro returning, integrating Woods into the lineup should be seamless. During the spring game broadcast, coach Dabo Swinney described him as “like a Halley’s comet. Every now and then you get a guy that physically and mentally and maturity and all the intangibles, he’s just ready.” — Adelson
A new-look Colorado. There are two surefire ways to create excitement: Do something no one’s ever seen before, or turn into a complete train wreck. It’s entirely possible Deion Sanders will do both at Colorado this season, and there’s no storyline more intriguing in all of college sports. Coach Prime has completely turned over his roster. He’s installed his son, Shedeur Sanders, at quarterback. He’s backed up an 18-wheeler to the entrance to the transfer portal and announced, “All aboard!” He’s landed some extremely interesting prospects like Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Tar’Varish Dawson Jr., but how much chemistry can a team have when 80% of the roster is brand new? Is Sanders writing a new script for how to win or just scripting college football’s most chaotic reality show? Honestly, there’s no outcome that seems entirely out of the question. — David Hale
New faces for Alabama: Not that Alabama has ever lacked for talent under Nick Saban, but there will be three new faces this fall who Tide fans will want to keep their eyes on. Let’s start on offense with massive true freshman Kadyn Proctor. At 6-foot-7, 354 pounds, he will be hard to miss (literally) and was impressive enough in the spring that he could be Alabama’s starting left tackle by the opener, or at the very least, a few games into the season. Junior college receiver Malik Benson will provide an immediate boost to the receiving corps with his explosive playmaking ability, and freshman safety Caleb Downs might have been the best of the bunch in the spring. Alabama needed some help in the secondary, and Downs looks game-ready. Even Saban had trouble finding flaws in Downs’ game. — Low
Freshman RBs for the Tide: To piggyback off Low here, keep an eye on Alabama’s two freshman running backs: Richard Young and Justice Haynes. They were ESPN’s No. 1- and No. 2-ranked backs in the 2023 class, respectively. We’ve already gotten a sneak peak at Haynes, who enrolled early and scored three touchdowns during Alabama’s spring game in April. He has the power and speed to be a top back in the SEC. Paired with Young, Alabama could have a special backfield for the next three-plus years. And they should get plenty of opportunities as the Tide look to make more of a commitment to the running game under new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. — Scarborough
UCLA QB Dante Moore. Five-star quarterback Moore’s decision to flip from Oregon to UCLA in the days before the December signing period was one of the biggest takeaways and a boon for Chip Kelly in the post-Dorian Thompson-Robinson era. Kelly did secure former Kent State QB Collin Schlee through the portal to join sophomore Ethan Garbers in the QB room. But convincing Moore, who threw for 2,392 yards and 32 TDs as a senior for Martin Luther King High School (Michigan), to make the move from Detroit to Pasadena could be the perfect way for the Bruins to keep the offensive momentum going after finishing third in the Pac-12 in total offense (503.5 YPG) last season. — Baumgartner
Oklahoma S Peyton Bowen: Bowen’s recruitment became one of the wilder stories heading into the December signing period. The five-star safety from Texas (ESPN’s No. 17 overall prospect) initially committed to Notre Dame for a year before flipping to Oregon and then Oklahoma during a furious 24 hours. He joins quarterback Jackson Arnold, his high school teammate and ESPN’s No. 3 overall prospect, in Norman. Bowen and five-star defensive end Adepoju Adebawore are the types of defensive recruits Oklahoma hired coach Brent Venables to sign, especially with the SEC transition on the horizon in 2024. They should see the field this fall, and their performances could open eyes of similar defensive prospects toward OU and the chance to play for Venables. Bowen is Oklahoma’s highest-rated defensive recruit since ESPN launched its rankings. — Rittenberg
The Uigaleileis in Oregon. The Uiagalelei family has made Oregon their home. Between DJ‘s transfer to Oregon State and his brother, five-star freshman defensive end Matayo, committing to Oregon, the two will be spotlighted plenty come the start of the season in the Pacific Northwest. Matayo, in particular, will be a fun one to watch in Dan Lanning’s defense. While it remains unclear how big of a role the freshman will have in next year’s team, there’s an expectation he’ll get plenty of snaps due to his athleticism and size already at such a young age. — Uggetti
Unanswered questions for September
Alabama’s QB situation. The default opinion on Alabama’s QB situation is that, “Hey, it’s Alabama. It’ll get figured out.” Indeed, Nick Saban has won a lot of games even when he hasn’t had a future first-rounder at QB, and in the seven previous instances in which Saban lacked a clear-cut incumbent at Alabama, the eventual starters in those seasons completed 67% of their throws, accounted for 192 touchdowns and just 53 turnovers and posted a combined 79-4 record, with the Tide winning four national championships. And yet … when Tommy Rees is recruiting the guy who just lost Notre Dame’s QB battle to come to Alabama, it has the feel of a red flag. Every dynasty comes to an end eventually. You’d be a fool to assume Alabama’s best days are behind it just because of a little QB controversy now, but it’s just as hard to feel like the Tide have a good answer at the most important position on the field, too. — Hale
Can Payton Thorne succeed in the SEC? Thorne, if he’s healthy, will provide Hugh Freeze and Auburn an experienced signal-caller to try to navigate the SEC. Thorne’s 3,233 passing yards and 27 touchdowns in Michigan State’s 11-win season in 2021 proved he’s capable of playing at a high level. The Tigers’ first three conference games — at Texas A&M, Georgia and at LSU — will see Auburn thrown into the fire early. A two-year starter in Thorne may give Freeze the best chance to improve an offensive attack that finished 10th in total yards (378.5 YPG) and last in passing yards (172.7 YPG) in the SEC last year. — Baumgartner
How will Garrett Riley impact Cade Klubnik’s play? Give Dabo Swinney credit. He hasn’t been one to make many changes on his staff at Clemson, but he saw a chance to go out and get one of the brightest offensive minds in the game in Garrett Riley and brought him in to run a Clemson offense that had finished outside the top five nationally in scoring offense for two straight seasons. The passing game had really suffered, and Clemson fans are anxious to see what the offense looks like with Riley and sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik stepping into their new roles together. Klubnik spent most of last season as the backup to DJ Uiagalelei (who’s since transferred to Oregon State) before coming off the bench to replace him in the ACC championship game and then starting in the Orange Bowl loss to Tennessee. Riley has been outstanding at molding his offenses around his quarterback. Max Duggan is a great example at TCU. We’ll see if he can have that same success with Klubnik at Clemson. — Low
What exactly is going on at Texas A&M? Last season was an abject failure, as the Aggies finished 5-7 and sixth in the SEC West. But then some two dozen players started making their way to the transfer portal. And then Jimbo Fisher hired one of the most polarizing coaches in college football in Bobby Petrino to be his offensive coordinator. Given Fisher’s hesitancy to give up playcalling, that could turn into a combustible situation if things go sideways. The early part of the schedule seems manageable (September will feature New Mexico, Miami, Louisiana Monroe, Auburn and Arkansas), but remember this is a team that lost to Appalachian State last year. A rocky start could place Fisher and his $95 million contract squarely on the hot seat. — Scarborough
UCLA’s quarterback battle? Situation? Whatever you (or Chip Kelly) wants to call it, I’m fascinated by the rise of Dante Moore and whether Kelly pulls the trigger and starts the five-star freshman from the get-go instead of going for the more conservative route such as Ethan Garbers or Kent State transfer Collin Schlee. As Blake outlined above, Moore is a star in the making, and his statistics and accolades make him as much of a foolproof prospect as you can have in the sport. In spring camp this year, Moore impressed as well, turning what could have been a development year sitting on the bench into a real chance to start come the fall. Whether Kelly opts for Moore to be the replacement for the departing Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Week 1 remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure: If Moore starts on the bench, he won’t be there for long. — Uggetti
Teams in new places
Three FBS conferences will have a new look this season. A snapshot of who’s coming and going in the American, Big 12 and Conference USA in 2023:
AAC
Additions: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
Losses: Cincinnati, Houston, UCF
Big 12
Additions: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF
Conference USA
Additions: Jacksonville State (FCS), Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston (FCS)
Losses: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
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The All-Stars who are halfway to history in 2025
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9 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
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This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.
The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.
Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?
As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.
Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.
How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman
Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.
How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon
Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.
How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith
Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.
How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan
Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.
How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.
How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll
Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.
How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam
Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.
How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.
How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize
Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore
Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.
How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan
Sports
Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations
Published
12 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
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Bill ConnellyJul 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
Sports
It’s MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways
Published
1 day agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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