Who wins the Stanley Cup? Goalie confidence ratings, X factors, predictions for Panthers-Golden Knights
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
From 32 teams starting the 2022-23 NHL season, the Stanley Cup playoffs have whittled down from 16 to eight to four, and now just two remain.
The Stanley Cup Final begins Saturday, June 3, as the Vegas Golden Knights will host Game 1 against the Florida Panthers. Regardless of which team wins, it’ll be the first-ever championship for a franchise.
To help get you up to speed before the opening puck drop, we’re bringing you a mega-preview, breaking down each team in five different categories that will help determine whether it’ll be Mark Stone or Aleksander Barkov hoisting the Cup this spring.
Note: Kristen Shilton broke down the Panthers, while Ryan S. Clark profiled the Golden Knights.
How they got here: Defeated Boston Bruins 4-3; defeated Toronto Maple Leafs 4-1; Defeated Carolina Hurricanes 4-0
Goalie confidence rating: 9.5/10
Sergei Bobrovsky is playing the best hockey of his career this postseason. That’s a tall order considering Bobrovsky’s two-time Vezina Trophy-winner pedigree.
But not only has Bobrovsky surpassed his own previous heights, he has steadily gotten better throughout the playoffs. Bobrovsky’s masterful performance in the Eastern Conference finals — 4-0-0 record, .966 save percentage and 1.12 goals-against average, plus a first-ever postseason shutout — propelled the Panthers to a swift sweep of Carolina. The three goals Bobrovsky allowed in Game 4 were the most he’d given up since Florida’s first-round series against Boston.
The stats are staggering. Bobrovksy’s stunning. The Cup finals will be another opportunity for him to shine.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Florida plays by its own rules — and has a great time doing it. That’s been the Panthers’ secret sauce since punching their last-minute ticket into the playoff field. They truly approach each game with a fun-focused attitude; there’s no pressure or expectations weighing them down, and that’s a gift in itself.
Florida is also a superior team to the one talked about throughout the regular season. The Panthers can win tight-checking, defensive-heavy battles or the more wide-open, offensively amplified ones. They’re deep, they’re dangerous and most importantly, the Panthers know exactly who they are. And clearly, they knew that way before anyone else. Regardless of how the finals end for Florida, this has been a spectacular spring for a team pundits previously left for dead.
Player who will be key to the series
Beyond Bobrovsky? Matthew Tkachuk. He has been The Guy in practically every big moment the Panthers have encountered this postseason. Tkachuk scored three game-winning goals in the conference final alone — two in overtime and one in Game 4 with less than five seconds remaining in regulation — and is second in overall postseason scoring, with 21 points in 16 games.
Florida’s feisty forward is the rare player who can — and will continue being — a threat on every single shift, a force at 5-on-5 and dangerous on the power play. The Panthers rely on Tkachuk to drive the team’s offense, and he hasn’t let them down yet in taking control and taking over when necessary.
Player who needs to step up
Florida’s many strengths include a depth of performers up front. This Stanley Cup Final is a chance for Eetu Luostarinen to do even more in that category.
This series could present long stretches where the top two lines cancel each other out; Luostarinen is a solid two-way player who could break through from a bottom-six spot to generate some offense. He has produced only two goals and six points in 16 playoff games thus far, but has been a reliable defensive piece that coach Paul Maurice can move throughout the lineup. Now that the Panthers are at their pinnacle, Luostarinen shouldn’t hold back from padding those stats and providing Florida with a real third-line attacking presence.
The Panthers’ special teams haven’t gotten their due
Florida owns the best playoff penalty kill (at 84%) since the start of its second-round series against Toronto, allowing only four goals the past 25 times it was shorthanded. The Panthers’ power play has been immaculate over that stretch as well (30.4%), with at least one goal on the man advantage in six of their past seven games.
Special teams success can literally make or break a team in the playoffs — Carolina was 2-for-14 against Florida on the power play; think that helped do them in? The Panthers have capitalized on their chances this postseason, and it’s what will make them a complex foe each and every night of the Cup finals ahead.
1:43
How Matthew Tkachuk has completely transformed the Panthers
Kevin Weekes examines key players for the Panthers and Golden Knights ahead of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final.
How they got here: Defeated Winnipeg Jets 4-1; Defeated Edmonton Oilers 4-2; Defeated Dallas Stars 4-2
Goalie confidence rating: 9.5/10
Adin Hill began the month of May without a single playoff appearance on his résumé, but he has become one of the biggest reasons the Golden Knights have reached the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in six years.
Hill replaced Laurent Brossoit, who suffered an injury in Game 3 in the second round, and has since become one of the Golden Knights’ most consistent performers. He helped the Golden Knights close out the Western Conference final against the Stars with a 23-save shutout. Blanking the Stars means Hill enters the Stanley Cup Final with a 7-3 record, a 2.07 goals-against average and a .937 save percentage while also stopping more than 30 shots per game in seven of those contests.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Enough was in place at the close of the regular season to suggest the Golden Knights had depth. The playoffs have shown there are layers to the Golden Knights, and how they operate.
All of their lines can consistently forecheck, with the notion that all of their combinations have their unique way of creating scoring chances. They have veteran defensive pairings, including one in Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo that has three combined Stanley Cups. But the pairing that has seen the most 5-on-5 minutes is Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud. Then, of course, there is what Hill has accomplished as the latest goaltender who has provided stability in the crease.
Players who will be key to the series
A player who might be at the heart of that discussion about the Golden Knights and their layers could be Jack Eichel. He has given them the No. 1 center who, under coach Bruce Cassidy, has emerged as a two-way presence and one of the favorites to win the Conn Smythe. Cassidy has also pulled the best out of other forwards such as Ivan Barbashev, William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone.
There is also a case for Pietrangelo. He’s playing in key situations, such as the penalty kill and the power play, while averaging more than 24 minutes per game — a near four-minute separation between himself and Martinez, who is second in average ice time.
Player who needs to step up
Does one really exist? Look throughout their lineup. They have received contributions that have been noticeable, such as those made by their stars, and ones that may go unappreciated in ways that make players such as Michael Amadio, Keegan Kolesar, Nicolas Roy, Hague and Whitecloud so important to their setup.
Instead, it’s a particular unit that needs to step up: the penalty kill. The Golden Knights have succeeded in killing penalties only 63.0% of the time, which is why they enter the Cup finals ranked 14th out of the 16 postseason teams. That could turn into a big problem based on another trend: the Golden Knights have taken the second-most penalty minutes during the playoffs.
Could this Stanley Cup Final change how certain front offices view first-year coaches?
Think about last year’s narrative around coaching and the Stanley Cup Final. Both Colorado Avalanche coach Jared Bednar and Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper were examples of why it may benefit front offices to be more patient with their bench bosses. Cooper is the longest tenured coach in the NHL while Bednar was third.
Fast forward to this Cup Final. Cassidy and Maurice have reinforced the expectation that playoff-caliber teams with first-year coaches can win the Stanley Cup. Of course, that does come with context. Cassidy came to Vegas having reached the playoffs in six straight seasons with the Bruins, while reaching the Stanley Cup Final back in 2019. Paul Maurice reached the playoffs in his last four full seasons in addition to having a Stanley Cup Final appearance (2002, with the Hurricanes) as well. Don’t forget what Pete DeBoer did in his first season with the Stars, either. That’s three of four conference finalists who had first-year coaches.
The Golden Knights faced questions about whether they could contend after their first spring of no playoffs. Some wondered if the Panthers could ever get past the second round. The Stars seemed lost in a Central Division filled with monsters. But by going with a fresh voice — the right fresh voice — all three pushed over the hump this season.
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Ryan S. Clark
LAS VEGAS — Just when it appeared that the Vegas Golden Knights finally found an opening in overtime, their chances of winning Game 2 were quickly shut down in controversial fashion.
It wasn’t that the Golden Knights were overlooking what it means to be in a 2-0 series hole following a 5-4 overtime loss Thursday to the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday in Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinals at T-Mobile Arena.
They were more concerned with what they saw, and what they didn’t see from referee Gord Dwyer just 17 seconds before Leon Draisaitl‘s game-winning goal gave the Oilers their first 2-0 series lead since 2017.
Vegas defenseman Brayden McNabb was going toward for the puck when Edmonton winger Viktor Arvidsson‘s stick got between McNabb’s legs, which sent McNabb into the boards. The play wasn’t ruled a penalty, and it led to the Oilers eventually going into transition before Draisaitl converted a 2-on-1 chance for the winner.
“It’s pretty clear it’s a penalty,” Golden Knights captain Mark Stone said. “His stick is between McNabb’s legs, and he sends him headfirst into the boards. It’s a pretty clear-cut penalty in my eyes and I think everybody’s eyes, right? But that’s hockey. You don’t always get the calls.”
Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy was a bit more direct about what he saw on the McNabb play.
“Listen, Gord’s looking at it. He blew it. He missed the call,” Cassidy said. “I don’t know what else to say. It’s a can-opener trip, it’s a dangerous play, it’s all those things. But it didn’t get called, so you’ve got to keep playing.”
Cassidy said he didn’t have an immediate update on McNabb’s status for Game 3 on Saturday in Edmonton. If he were to miss Game 3, it would leave the Golden Knights without one of their most important players.
McNabb, who was part of their Stanley Cup-winning team in 2023, is one of their top-pairing options and also a crucial piece of a penalty kill that had a significant role in how the Golden Knights survived so late in overtime.
An urgently aggressive Golden Knights team kept pushing to start the first period before forward Victor Olofsson opened with his first-ever playoff goal on the power play in the first period. Three consecutive goals from Oilers trio Jake Walman, Vasily Podkolzin and Darnell Nurse gave them a 3-1 lead. Golden Knights forward William Karlsson scored late in the second to cut it to 3-2.
Oilers forward Evander Kane doubled the lead to 4-2 within the first two minutes of the third before Olofsson’s second, also on the power play, less than three minutes later again cut the lead to a single goal. The Golden Knights forced overtime when alternate captain and star defenseman Alex Pietrangelo fired a shot from distance with 8:02 remaining in regulation.
Vegas had two chances in the final 30 seconds, only to have them both stopped by Edmonton goaltender Calvin Pickard, who finished with 28 saves, before heading to overtime.
Olofsson had a chance at a game-winning hat trick with a point-blank chance with 18:45 remaining before Nurse’s stick stopped him from having a clean shot.
“Definitely had a lot of good looks, and I think we could have had a couple more goals,” Olofsson said of a Golden Knights team that finished with 19 high-danger scoring chances.
Natural Stat Trick’s metrics show that Vegas’ shot-share in overtime was 66.7%. But even in a period in which they controlled possession, there was a moment when they nearly lost their grip.
Golden Knights forward Nicolas Roy received a five-minute major for cross-checking after his stick connected with Trent Frederic’s face. Roy appeared as if he was trying to play a puck in midair, only to then strike Frederic, which sent the Oilers on the power play.
The NHL’s No. 12 power-play unit in the regular season, the Oilers had a few chances on net but were either stopped by Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill or had their chances broken up by an aggressive forecheck that allowed them to go through unscathed.
With a pair of power-play goals already, the Golden Knights believed they could have added a third once McNabb went into the boards.
Instead? They watched the Oilers regroup, Draisaitl get on a 2-on-1 and beat Hill for the win.
“This one will sting,” Cassidy said. “But the positives tomorrow will be good. I felt that we outplayed the Oilers for the most part and deserved a better fate. How the guys look at that? If they take it as, ‘We just gotta carry that over’ — we both said we wanted to get better as the series went on and we were certainly better than Game 1. So, we’ll improve on today if we want to get back into it.”
Going back to their first campaign in the 2017-18 season, the Golden Knights have made the playoffs in all but one year. Throughout that time, they’ve been in a 2-0 series hole once, against the Colorado Avalanche in a second-round series back in 2021.
The Golden Knights would come back to win that series with four consecutive victories.
“I liked our game today; we had a lot of good chances,” said Stone, who is one of nine players who remain from that team in 2021. “We put up four goals, and usually when you score four goals, you’re going to win a playoff game. Unfortunately, we didn’t. You can’t get down, you got to go to Edmonton tomorrow, get ready for Saturday night’s game and put your best foot forward and get a win.”
With two games in the books for three of four second-round series, trends have begun to emerge — some not so good for the teams that many picked to make long runs this postseason.
The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are in a 2-0 hole, returning home to host the Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 3 (7 p.m. ET, TNT). In Friday’s nightcap, the Dallas Stars will look for another road victory over the Winnipeg Jets (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Thursday’s games and the three stars of Thursday from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers
Game 3 | 7 p.m. ET | TNT
In their franchise history, the Maple Leafs have won 84% of their best-of-seven series when going up 2-0. The Panthers are 0-5 in best-of-seven series when trailing 0-2.
This series features the two highest-scoring lines at 5-on-5 this postseason: Eetu Luostarinen–Anton Lundell–Brad Marchand (eight) and Matthew Knies–Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner (seven, including the game-winning goal in Game 2).
William Nylander scored a goal for the third straight game, and he has six goals and 13 points this postseason. He is the second Maple Leaf of the past 30 years to score five goals in a three-game span — joining Alexander Mogilny from 2003 — and the first Maple Leaf since Doug Gilmour in 1993 to have 13 or more points in the first eight games of a postseason.
With a goal in Game 2, Marchand now has 32 postseason points against the Leafs in his career, which is fourth most all time. He trails Gordie Howe (53), Alex Delvecchio (35) and Henri Richard (33).
Stepping in for injured Anthony Stolarz, Joseph Woll saved 25 of 28 shots for Toronto. His counterpart, Sergei Bobrovsky, allowed four goals on 20 shots and has allowed nine total goals through Games 1 and 2. That is tied for the second most he has allowed in a two-game span in his playoff career.
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
After a win in Game 1, the Stars are now -360 favorites to win the series, while the Jets are +280, according to ESPN BET. The win for Dallas snapped an eight-game losing streak in Game 1s.
Mikko Rantanen provided all the offense that Dallas needed in the 3-2 win, scoring his second single-period hat trick in as many games. He set a record for the most consecutive team goal contributions (goal or assist) in Stanley Cup playoff history, with 12; the previous mark was nine by Mario Lemieux in 1992.
Game 1 was Jason Robertson‘s first game back after sustaining an injury in the final game of the regular season. He played 13:44, including 1:00 on the power play, and registered one shot.
The opening clash was also Mark Scheifele‘s return to the ice, though his absence was just since April 30 and Game 5 against the Blues in Round 1. Scheifele scored a goal and registered seven shots in 22:36 of ice time.
Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck and Dallas’ Jake Oettinger are considered the two leading candidates to be Team USA’s goaltender at the 2026 Olympics. Oettinger took the first round of the head-to-head battle, saving 29 of 31 shots and getting the W; Hellebuyck saved 21 of 24 shots in defeat.
Öcal’s three stars from Thursday
Wilson was key in the Capitals tying up their series against the Canes. It was the first time he had a playoff game with at least two points, two hits, two blocked shots and three shots on goal.
Draisaitl scored the game winner in overtime as Edmonton takes a 2-0 series lead on Vegas. He joins Esa Tikkanen (from 1991) as the only players in franchise history with multiple OT goals in a single postseason.
Eichel registered three assists in the OT loss to Edmonton, and he now has eight points in his past five games (one goal, seven assists). That ties his own mark for most points in a five-game span in his postseason career.
Thursday’s recaps
Washington Capitals 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Series tied 1-1 | Game 3 Saturday
After a loss to the Canes in Game 1, the Capitals looked like a different team as veteran winger Tom Wilson “set the tone,” according to Alex Ovechkin. Connor McMichael started the scoring at 2:16 of the second period, and John Carlson put the Caps up 2-0 with a power-play goal near the start of the third on an assist by Wilson and Dylan Strome. Shayne Gostisbehere pulled Carolina within one with a power-play goal of his own, but Wilson finished them off with an empty-netter with a minute left. Full recap.
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John Carlson buries Caps’ second goal of the night
John Carlson sends the Capitals fans into a frenzy after a beautiful goal early in the third period.
Edmonton Oilers 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
EDM leads 2-0 | Game 3 Saturday
Seeking a win to tie up the series, Vegas was on the board first with a goal from Victor Olofsson at 8:42 of the first period. Edmonton, however, charged back with three straight goals in the second period (from Jake Walman, Vasily Podkolzin and Darnell Nurse), before William Karlsson drew the Knights within one at 18:10. Evander Kane put the Oilers back up by two at 1:52 of the third, before Vegas rallied with goals by Olofsson and Alex Pietrangelo to send the game to OT. Leon Draisaitl tallied the game winner, giving the Oilers a 5-4 win and a 2-0 series lead heading home to Alberta. Full recap.
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Oilers prevail in OT to take 2-0 series lead
Scott Van Pelt recaps the Oilers’ thrilling 5-4 overtime win over the Golden Knights to take a 2-0 series lead.
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