Can Drew Allar be the elite quarterback who gets James Franklin and Penn State into the playoff?
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford approached coach James Franklin in the fourth quarter of January’s Rose Bowl and implored, “Do not take me out of this game.”
Franklin smiled this spring at the memory, remembering how his sixth-year senior didn’t want the moment to end as his team closed in on a decisive victory against Pac-12 champion Utah. But Franklin was also cognizant of an opportunity for the program’s future. So Franklin called timeout with 2:30 to play and handed his offense to baby-faced backup quarterback Drew Allar, a true freshman.
It marked a symbolic quarterback transition many Penn State fans have been clamoring for. While Allar, who turned 19 in March, hasn’t been anointed the starting quarterback just yet, Franklin said this spring his staff “intentionally worked hard at trying to get him as much experience as possible” last fall with an eye on this season.
If Allar — or another contender — can play at a consistently elite level, this could be Franklin’s best team since 2016, when Penn State won the Big Ten but was left out of the College Football Playoff. Penn State’s playoff potential is a familiar storyline this time of year in State College, where Franklin is still aiming for his first CFP appearance in his 10th season as head coach. But the returning talent this year — from a deep, veteran offensive line and dependable running game to staff stability — lends credence to that potential.
In a conference that has been top-heavy with rivals Ohio State and Michigan’s seesawing supremacy, Penn State could make the East Division race one of the most entertaining and unpredictable. Penn State’s games against Ohio State and Michigan will determine whether the Nittany Lions are a serious contender in their own division, let alone the CFP.
Since Franklin arrived in Happy Valley, Penn State is a combined 4-14 (.222) against Michigan and Ohio State, compared to 45-16 (.738) against the rest of the Big Ten. There have routinely been specific shortcomings against those opponents, including in the running game, but one of the most glaring disparities has been the turnover margin. Penn State is minus-six against Ohio State and Michigan and plus-20 against the rest of the league.
The biggest issue, though, might be that it never has had the right quarterback at the right time.
“Although we’ve had some good ones here, that’s probably been the difference between us winning three New Year’s Six bowl games and getting into the playoff and winning a national championship,” Franklin said, “is having an elite quarterback that can make the plays that change games.”
This season, they might.
WHEN FRANKLIN WAS hired in 2014, Christian Hackenberg was the starting quarterback for two seasons, followed by Trace McSorley for three years and Clifford for four. They were respectable players who won more than they lost, but CFP quarterbacks have historically played at a different level. A total of 20 quarterbacks have been drafted following CFP appearances, including 12 in the first round, with six No. 1 overall picks (Alabama’s Bryce Young, LSU’s Joe Burrow, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield, Florida State’s Jameis Winston and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence). Penn State’s Hackenberg was drafted in the second round, while McSorley went in the sixth and Clifford in the fifth.
A total of 23 quarterbacks have been Heisman finalists during the CFP era, and more than half of them (15) also reached a semifinal. Penn State has not had a finalist in the CFP era — though running back Saquon Barkley finished fourth in 2017 — and has only had one winner in school history: running back John Cappelletti in 1973.
While there has been a strong correlation between elite quarterback play and semifinal appearances, it also doesn’t guarantee one (See: 2022 Caleb Williams and USC; 2016 Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma; or 2016-17 Lamar Jackson).
It’s far too early to link Allar — who hasn’t even picked his major or started a game yet — with any Heisman hype. Franklin said it’s not a necessity to have a Heisman-winning quarterback, but any team looking to contend for the national title needs to have one of the best in college football.
“People have compared us to some other programs, and you get that quarterback that changes your program and all of a sudden the next quarterback comes, and the next quarterback comes, and the next quarterback comes,” he said. “Some of it is luck, and some of it is development and identification through the recruiting process.”
Penn State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich recruited Allar, a four-star recruit and the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2022 ESPN 300. He said Allar has “far exceeded” his expectations “from a cerebral standpoint,” but also has other “elite traits.” It’s also Allar’s second season in the same offense, as this is the first time since 2019 Penn State has had both coordinators return for a second season.
“He’s hard to bring down,” Yurcich said. “You need three arms on him, at least. He can stand in there and he doesn’t need much space. Those are the elite traits that he has — the ability to be accurate with things around him, he’s got really good vision. He keeps his eyes downfield incredibly well for a young guy. He’s getting better every day with pre-snap duties, which are protection, run checks, seeing the defense.”
Clifford walked off to a roaring ovation at the Rose Bowl, but as ceremonious as it was, some critics wanted it months earlier. The calls for Allar grew louder in October after Clifford accounted for four turnovers in Penn State’s 44-31 home loss to Ohio State. The loss doomed the Nittany Lions’ chances of winning the Big Ten East after also losing at Michigan two weeks earlier.
Yurcich said Clifford gave Penn State the best chance to win last year. The staff didn’t want Clifford looking over his shoulder — or to start Allar before he was mentally ready for it.
“I think the worst thing you can do is make a knee-jerk reaction or be influenced by outside sources and not trusting the minds that are within this building,” Yurcich said. “The worst thing you can do is play a guy when he’s not fully ready. … you can ruin the confidence. That’s a huge mistake I think a lot of coaches make. When there’s pressure on a staff to play a certain guy based on outside sources — whether that’s the higher-ups, the fan base, whatever — those are pitfalls you see organizations fall into at the highest levels.”
While Franklin stayed loyal to Clifford last year, he was also methodical in finding playing time for the 6-foot-5, 242-pound Allar, who appeared in 10 games, including the Rose Bowl, the season opener against Purdue and at Michigan.
“I think what was probably pretty obvious to everybody is, he gets in the game as a true freshman against Purdue to open the season, and he’s just got a sense of poise,” Franklin said. “He’s calm. And you watch him stand in the pocket, and there’s really no panic, and I think that’s when people were like, ‘OK, this guy may be different,’ which is unusual as a true freshman on that stage.”
IT’S NAIVE TO assume that Allar or any other rookie quarterback will enter the starting lineup this fall and do what his predecessors could not — beat Ohio State and Michigan — without significant help.
Penn State appears to have it.
It starts with the offensive line led by projected top-10 tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who became the first true freshmen teammates in Big Ten history to each have 700 or more rushing yards in a single season. Singleton (1,061 rushing yards) set a school freshman record with 12 rushing touchdowns and Allen (867 rushing yards) followed with 10.
“Neither one of them played like true freshmen,” Franklin said.
It was an eye-opening improvement that coincided with the development of the offensive line, which is perhaps the deepest and most experienced it’s been during Franklin’s tenure. At 6-foot-6, 323 pounds, Fashanu looms large even without his pads on. He played 520 snaps at left tackle last season and didn’t allow a single sack. Fashanu said he chose to return to Penn State instead of entering the NFL draft so he could begin his master’s degree in the fall, and because he felt “this year we could go a lot further than going to just the Rose Bowl.”
“We have the size and the talent, but something that’s a lot more noticeable than in years before is we have a lot of depth,” he said of the offensive line. “Last year going into every game there were probably like seven or eight guys that we could play in a game, but this year it’s looking more like 11 or 12.”
The evolution of Penn State’s running game is a critical component to the Nittany Lions’ attempt to rise from top-10 to top-four. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information research, Penn State has averaged more than a yard fewer against Michigan or Ohio State (3.27) than the rest of the Big Ten (4.28).
In 2016, when Penn State won the Big Ten but was excluded from the CFP, the selection committee could never quite forgive the Nittany Lions’ ugly 49-10 loss at Michigan. It was a flat finish to a 2-2 September that also included a Week 2 loss at Pitt.
Since 2013, Penn State has faced both Ohio State and Michigan every season and has never gone 2-0 against them, only defeating the Buckeyes once during that span. Penn State doesn’t have to go 2-0 against Ohio State and Michigan to reach the CFP, but it can’t lose ugly and it certainly can’t lose to both. The Nittany Lions are unlikely to face a ranked opponent before their Oct. 21 game at Ohio State.
“There’s a game that you win and then you see yourself in a different way, and you’ve got to win that occasion against somebody to begin to see yourself differently,” defensive coordinator Manny Diaz said. “I think that’s our next step. We have the right group of people to do it, but you have to go out there and do it.”
With a nonconference schedule that includes West Virginia, Delaware and UMass, Penn State’s strength of schedule will be an issue in the committee meeting room if PSU doesn’t win the Big Ten — especially if the one-loss Nittany Lions are being compared against a one-loss SEC team.
According to ESPN Analytics, the SEC (97%) and Big Ten (94%) are the most likely conferences to put a team in the playoff and the most likely to have multiple teams finish in the top four. Last year, Michigan finished No. 2 and Ohio State finished No. 4 heading into the playoff.
If Penn State beats Michigan at home but doesn’t win at Ohio State, the win against the Wolverines would by far be the most impressive on its schedule. Last year, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State were the only Big Ten teams ranked in the final Associated Press Top 25. Penn State would benefit from teams like Illinois, Iowa, Maryland and Michigan State playing their way into the top-25 this year.
If Penn State can finish as a one-loss Big Ten champion, it’s hard to envision the selection committee snubbing the Nittany Lions again.
And Allar said the team is driven to be better than last year’s 11-2 finish.
“We definitely want to build off that and not take a step back or be in the same place that we were last year,” Allar said. “Guys recognize that and the talent we have from top to bottom on this team is definitely some of the best in the country. [They] have that self-belief and self-confidence that we can really do this thing.”
PENN STATE CORNERBACK Kalen King, a Detroit native, grew up a Michigan fan, watching the Wolverines with his dad. He said Charles Woodson was one of his favorite players, and he loved watching reruns of old Rose Bowl games. So when the time came to actually play in one — and win — he couldn’t help but scoop up a few roses off the field from the postgame celebration as a souvenir.
“It only benefits us because now we know how to win at a high level,” he said. “We can only build on that. Since we made it that far last year, we have to be better than last year. We can’t drop off. We can’t be worse. We’ve already seen what it was to win the Rose Bowl, so now we’ve got to explore bigger and better things.”
It was as King and the Nittany Lions’ defense took the field for the final time against Utah that Franklin told Allar to warm up.
It was only one pass attempt. Only four against Purdue. Ten against Michigan. Slowly, though, they add up.
“As soon as I got into more games,” he said, “I definitely felt more comfortable going into those situations because of how well they prepared me to be in those situations.”
Penn State’s most difficult game of the regular season will be in Allar’s home state on Oct. 21 at Ohio State, where the Nittany Lions haven’t won since 2011. Franklin described Allar as an “old-school, prototypical quarterback” with a strong arm who “can make all the throws on the field.” He said Allar has more mobility than people might realize (he ran for 52 yards and one touchdown last fall on 18 carries). Allar can step up in the pocket, he said, extend plays, run through arm tackles.
But Franklin stopped short of saying Allar is the answer.
“I don’t like to make statements like that,” he said. “These guys have way too much pressure already.”
Fair. But if Penn State is going to win the Big Ten East — or at least force a three-way tie with Ohio State and Michigan — pressure is like part of the uniform, and it is as familiar as the storyline.
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David Hale
The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.
We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.
Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).
That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.
The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”
That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.
But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.
The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.
Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.
It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).
That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.
Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.
But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.
Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)
And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?
This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.
Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…
We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.
For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.
But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?
Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.
As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)
Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?
That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.
This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.
A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.
Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).
The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”
What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.
Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.
Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.
We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…
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SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.
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FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.
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Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.
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FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.
So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?
We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.
(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)
But, speaking of Alabama…
4. Championship game participants
Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?
This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).
OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.
So, what happens if Alabama loses?
The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.
Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.
It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.
Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.
But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.
Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State
Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy
Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF
Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five
Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd
FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th
There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.
Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.
Welcome to the party, James Madison.
With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.
If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.
At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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