Jacob deGrom’s elbow surgery deprives us of peak deGrom — again
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
With his first pitch in a Texas Rangers uniform, Jacob deGrom threw a 99.6 mph fastball. His next five fastballs, in his Opening Day start this March, clocked in at 99.4, 99.5, 99.7, 100.1 and 101.0. He lasted just 73 pitches in that outing, his first with the Rangers after signing a five-year, $185 million contract as a free agent, but deGrom would throw 16 of them at 99 mph or faster, plus another dozen at 98 mph.
It seemed like a bright omen of things to come. Instead, his final pitch of 2023 came just 29 days later, on April 28. He went on the IL a day later, and it was announced Tuesday that deGrom will undergo surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament. He will miss the rest of the season and likely much of 2024, meaning that for Texas in 2023 — and possibly next year too — he threw 451 pitches. The most bittersweet stat of all: 189 of them were at least 98 mph — nearly 42%.
With the news, my first thought was of my colleague Jeff Passan’s book, “The Arm,” in which he captures the importance and the fragility of the arm, at a time when Major League Baseball was seeing unprecedented numbers of Tommy John surgeries. A basic synopsis might be that the human arm, with more than 20 muscles in the upper arm and forearm, simply isn’t constructed to repeatedly throw a small leather sphere overhand at 100 miles per hour — no matter how much fun we have watching it do so. “One thing I now know,” Jeff writes, “is that for all its travails, all the heartache it can cause, all the frustrations left in its wake, the arm is capable of wondrous things.”
That has certainly been the case with deGrom.
Few pitchers in the sport’s history have matched his peak level of excellence. He led the league in ERA in 2018, when he won the first of his back-to-back Cy Young Awards, and he made at least 30 starts in four of the five years after his rookie campaign. In the first half of 2021, he went 7-2 with a 1.08 ERA in 15 starts for the New York Mets, striking out 146 batters and walking just 11 in 92 innings. He had mastered an unhittable combination of velocity and command.
Even this year, until leaving his sixth and final start in the fourth inning, he remained dominant: 45 strikeouts, four walks and a .171 batting average allowed. Going back to 2018, deGrom has been the best starter in baseball when he is healthy enough to go on the mound.
Unfortunately, the second half of his career now reads like this:
2020: 12 starts (COVID-shortened season)
2021: 15 starts (forearm strain)
2022: 11 starts (stress reaction in right scapula)
2023: 6 starts (elbow surgery)
All might not be lost. Yes, deGrom will turn 35 in a couple of weeks — meaning he will be 36 if he optimistically returns after the All-Star break next season. But, well, Justin Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery last season at 39 and went on to win a Cy Young Award.
Even if deGrom does come back at that point, it’s still a bummer to miss out on more than a year of watching him spin his magic.
The announcement of deGrom’s surgery followed the sad news that 34-year-old Stephen Strasburg might have thrown the final pitch of his career. Strasburg, who signed a $245 million contract with the Washington Nationals in December 2019, last pitched in June 2022. He has made eight starts since the Nationals won the world championship four years ago. The Washington Post reported Saturday that the 2019 World Series hero has been completely shut down from physical activity.
With both Strasburg and deGrom, there’s just something about their careers that makes you wonder, “What if?”
Among pitchers with fewer than 1,500 career innings (not including relievers), deGrom and Strasburg rank first and third in career WAR via Baseball-Reference:
1. deGrom: 41.9
2. Brandon Webb: 33.0
3. Strasburg: 30.9
4. Aaron Nola: 30.8
5. Teddy Higuera: 30.3
The injuries to these two aces certainly reveal the risks of signing pitchers to these big, long-term contracts. The Post reported that, due to Strasburg’s previous injuries before the $245 million deal, the Nationals weren’t even able to obtain insurance on him. They’ll likely end up getting one win from their high-stakes gamble.
These are hardly isolated cases. The Seattle Mariners signed Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract before 2022. He made one start this season before having to undergo with Tommy John surgery. The New York Yankees signed Carlos Rodon to a $162 million deal this past offseason, and he has yet to pitch after going down in spring training with forearm and back issues. Chris Sale helped the Boston Red Sox win the World Series in 2018 and signed a $145 million extension that didn’t kick in until 2020, and he is only now healthy again after missing all of 2020 and most of 2021 and 2022 (although Sale isn’t pitching at his previous high level of dominance). And the list goes on and on.
But the lure of the arm that is “capable of wondrous things” is just too hard for front offices to resist. The Rangers — desperate for starting pitching after ranking 25th in the majors in rotation ERA in 2022 — not only brought in deGrom as a free agent, they signed Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney; re-signed Martin Perez when he accepted the team’s qualifying offer; and traded for Jake Odorizzi (and all this after signing Jon Gray as a free agent in 2022).
Of those five pitchers, four spent time on the injured list in 2022, with only Perez escaping the season unscathed. Odorizzi won’t pitch at all for the Rangers; he is already out for the season after shoulder surgery. But Texas general manager Chris Young said he was going for depth with exactly these kinds of injuries in mind — and he struck gold with Eovaldi in signing him to a two-year, $34 million deal (that also includes a vesting option for 2025). Eovaldi is a leading Cy Young contender so far, going 8-2 with a 2.24 ERA.
Now, Eovaldi can also be an inspiration for deGrom. This will be deGrom’s second elbow surgery, after having one in the minors. Eovaldi also has had two Tommy John surgeries — the first in high school then a second in 2016. Eovaldi hasn’t been completely healthy since then — he missed time in 2019 with “loose bodies” in his elbow and spent two separate stints on the IL last season with back inflammation then shoulder tightness — but at 33 years old, he is pitching the best baseball of his career.
With Gray also pitching well, Texas is second in the majors in rotation ERA in 2023 and, in fact, has been humming along in first place without deGrom for weeks already.
So, yes, the Rangers apparently have an ace they signed in free agency — just not the one everyone thought — plus a powerhouse lineup that will allow them to go toe-to-toe with the Houston Astros in the American League West. Now Texas just needs Eovaldi, Gray & Co. to stay healthy.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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