An oil refinery, operated by Bharat Petroleum Corp., in Mumbai, India.
Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg | Getty Images
India’s ability to import more Russian oil may have hit a limit for the rest of the year, analysts tell CNBC, citing infrastructural and political constraints, as well as limitations to Russian oil flows.
“India will look to continue Russian crude imports, but perhaps it has reached its limit, hampering any additional barrels,” according to Janiv Shah, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
Moscow has since leapfrogged to become India’s leading source of crude oil, accounting for about 40% of India’s crude imports. June marked the 10th consecutive month-on-month increase in India’s imports of Russian crude, data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler showed.
“An unprecedented feat in recent history, especially given the volumes in question — 2.2 million barrels per day in June,” Kpler’s lead crude analyst, Viktor Katona said.
And that’s the highest volume that India’s imports of Russian oil can go — at least for the rest of the year, according to his predictions.
Any additional supply coming out of Russia … that flows into Asia, I suspect it’s done. It’s maximum amount now.
Daniel Hynes
senior commodity strategist, ANZ
“I would say 2.2 million b/d will be the peak this year … We believe India’s imports of Russian crude will see a slight downward correction to two million barrels per day. That will be the sustainable level of buying,” he said.
However, the volume of crude oil consumed and processed by India’s refineries has now hit a “seasonal peak” and would only trend downwards from here, Rystad Energy’s Shah told CNBC in an email.
His sentiments were echoed by Katona, which highlighted that in addition to refineries being currently shut, demand for oil is set to trickle down too.
“For the first time this year, some of Indian refiners will be undergoing maintenance which was just not the case in January to May 2023 when there were no turnarounds at all. Everyone was firing on all cylinders,” said Katona.
India’s monsoon season started in early June, and the summer period is often associated with lower demand for oil products as a result of lower mobility and construction, Katona added.
Fuel demand in India, the world’s third largest oil consumer, usually enters a lull during the four-month monsoon season. India’s total oil demand in June slipped 3.7% month-on-month to 19.31 million tonnes, according to data from India’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
‘Finite limit’ to Russian oil flows?
And it seems the limit goes both ways.
Flows coming out of Russia have a “finite limit,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.
“Any additional supply coming out of Russia … that flows into Asia, I suspect it’s done. It’s maximum amount now,” he added.
“India has talked about the inability to really pick up significantly additional cargoes from Russia,” Hynes added.
However, that’s not to say that India’s refiners will not attempt to try for another all-time high import of Russian oil next year, said Kpler’s Katona.
“Most probably in the March-to-May period again,” he said, pointing out that demand at that time will be “unrestricted from the Indian side and Russian export availability will be once again boosted by refinery turnarounds.”
Politics matter: India and the Middle East
However, India needs to maintain its relationship with other exporters too, especially key suppliers in the Middle East.
According to Rystad data, 55% of India’s recent seaborne medium sour imports were from Russia, while imports from the Middle East sank to a “historic low of 40%.”
“India may be approaching a limit in its reliance on Russian crude, as it would still need to secure long-term supply agreements with Middle Eastern suppliers,” Shah said.
Crude import from the Middle East region dropped 21.7% to 8.68 kilo tonnes in June compared to the start of the year, data from Refinitiv showed.
Medium sour crude supplies to India tend to come under annual term contracts, which have minimum purchase agreements.
“Technically, the Indians could be buying more, but they don’t want to antagonize the Middle East too much,” said Kpler’s Katona. “Politics matter, too,” he said.
However, Indian buyers are particularly price-sensitive, and could still forsake other countries’ crude for Russia’s at the right price.
“Indian refiners can always take more Russian [crude] at the expense of other grades, e.g the Middle Eastern ones, if the price disparity widens,” said director of Refinitiv Oil Research in Asia, Yaw Yan Chong.
Russian exports to India have soared more than 10 times since February last year, shooting from a pre-invasion average of just 350,000 metric tonne per month to a post-invasion average of 4.57 million metric tonne per month from March 2023 onwards, he said.
Yaw expects India will still pursue Russian imports at elevated levels “for as long as Russian [crude] are under [sanction] and shunned by their traditional European buyers.”
Lucid Motors (LCID) will continue offering the $7,500 federal EV tax credit for Gravity buyers until the end of the year. Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, said the electric SUV has “so many orders” and it doesn’t want buyers to lose out on the savings.
Are orders for Lucid’s Gravity SUV picking up?
Apparently, demand for Lucid’s new Gravity SUV is picking up. A recent Automotive News report claimed that Lucid registered just nine Gravity models in its first six months on the market, but the company was quick to shut down the rumors.
Lucid’s communication boss, Nick Twork, told Electrekin an email that the report was “completely inaccurate,” adding “a quick review of social media postings from our customers shows that those numbers are simply not credible.”
According to Twork, Gravity deliveries are “well into the 3-digit range.” In the second half of the year, Lucid expects the SUV to account for the majority of deliveries and production.
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Winterhoff confirmed on Lucid’s second-quarter earnings call that production of the Gravity SUV was “beginning to ramp up” after resolving most of the supply chain issues that had limited output in the first half of the year.
Lucid Gravity Grand Touring in Aurora Green (Source: Lucid)
Since it started offering test drives while adding Gravity models to its studios, Lucid’s interim CEO said the daily order rate for the electric SUV has nearly doubled.
During a new interview with Brew Markets on Tuesday, Winterhoff suggested that the Gravity is quickly attracting buyers. Lucid’s chief confirmed it will honor the $7,500 federal EV tax credit for Gravity buyers until the end of the year “because we have so many orders and we don’t want to tell order holders, you know what, you’re out of luck, we didn’t deliver in time.”
The Lucid Gravity (Source: Lucid)
Winterhoff also said that Lucid expects a limited impact on sales from the loss of the credit due to its market position and pricing.
Lucid views the German luxury brands, including Mercedes, BMW, and Audi, as its primary competitors. Although it does view Tesla as a competitor, “we see ourselves a little bit of a notch higher than Tesla,” Winterhoff said, when comparing the interior, materials, and luxury.
The interior of the Lucid Gravity (Source: Lucid Group)
Despite several luxury brands recently pulling back on their electrification plans, like Porsche, Lucid will remain a pure EV company and still believes electrification is the future.
Lucid’s vehicles currently start in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, but the company is working on launching its midsize platform in late 2026, which will bring the price down to around $50,000. The midsize platform will wear at least three “top hats,” including a crossover SUV, a more rugged variant, and a third, rumoured to be a midsize sedan aimed at the Tesla Model 3.
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Photo: Nevada Division of Environmental Protection
The Trump administration is seeking to acquire a 10% stake in Nevada’s upcoming lithium mine, operated by Lithium Americas (LAC).
Lithium Americas (LAC) has a flagship lithium mining project, Thacker Pass, located in Nevada.
With the Biden administration, the company had secured a $2.26 billion government loan to advance the project to production. However, since taking office, Trump has been attempting to claw back many loans related to the energy transition.
Last night, reports began to circulate about the Trump administration attempting to renegotiate the terms of the loans to include a 10% stake in the project.
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It sent LAC’s stock surging by as much as 80% in after-hours trading.
The reports forced the company to issue a comment. Lithium Americas confirmed being “in discussions” with both the Department of Energy, which issued the loan, and General Motors, which holds a 38% stake in the company and a right to buy the lithium from the mine, about drawing from the loan:
The Company is in discussions with the DOE and General Motors Holdings LLC (“GM”), its joint venture partner in the Thacker Pass lithium project (“Thacker Pass” or the “Project”), regarding first draw on the DOE Loan. The topics of these discussions include certain conditions precedent to draw on the DOE Loan and associated loan specifics, as well as incremental requests from the DOE for potential further conditions to first draw and/or potential amendments to the DOE Loan and associated transaction documents, including corresponding consideration. The Company continues to work with the DOE and GM regarding proposals for a mutually agreeable resolution.
This would be the latest example of the Trump administration taking direct stakes in companies and using “national security” as the reason.
Electrek’s Take
The Biden administration was attempting to establish a North American battery supply chain, but Trump has significantly hindered that effort over the last few months.
However, this is a good move.
The loan would have likely worked as well, but direct ownership is essentially how China operates, and it has worked out quite well for them. There’s a word for this, but Trump’s base hates it.
My main issue with how Trump is doing these market-moving announcements and leaks looks a hell of a lot like insider trading.
Even with this move on LAC, there was suspicious short-term option trading on the stock leading up to this.
The US is in its era of grifters.
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A Lithium Americas worker processes lithium at the company’s Reno, Nevada R&D lab.
Lithium Americas stock doubled Wednesday as the Trump administration is seeking an equity stake in the mining company, which is based in Vancouver, British Columbia.
The White House proposed the equity stake as Lithium Americas renegotiates the terms of a $2.2 billion loan from the Department of Energy for its Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, a Trump administration official told CNBC. Reuters first reported the equity stake proposal.
Lithium Americas’ shares hit a session high of $6.23, up more than 100% over Tuesday’s close of $3.07. The miner has a market cap of about $1.5 billion.
It is the latest move by the White House to take direct ownership in the mineral supply chain critical to U.S. interests, but the first such stake proposed for a Canadian company. Lithium Americas trades on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the NYSE but is incorporated and domiciled in Canada.
The Department of Defense took a 15% equity stake in rare earth miner MP Materials in July. Shares of Las Vegas-based MP Materials have more than doubled since the deal.
Thacker Pass in northern Nevada is expected to become one of the largest sources of lithium in North America with the first phase of the project scheduled to start operations in late 2027. The project is a joint venture between Lithium Americas and General Motors.
Lithium Americas has a 62% stake and operates the mine. GM has a 38% stake and has agreed to buy offtake from the mine when it is operational. Lithium is a critical material for electric vehicle batteries.
Lithium Americas and GM had to renegotiate the terms of the loan for Thacker Pass because they did not meet the conditions for the first disbursement, the Trump administration official said. During negotiations with the Department of Energy, they requested to push out part of the loan repayment into later years, the official said.
“If we’re going to push out part of the repayment into later years, then the administration would like a very small stake of equity to create essentially a cash buffer and eliminate some risk on behalf of taxpayers,” the official said.
A deal has not been finalized but the Trump administration supports the project and the discussions are positive, the official said. The investment could need Canadian approval as well given the company’s jurisdiction.
Lithium Americas confirmed Wednesday that it is in talks with the Energy Department and GM on the loan for Thacker Pass. GM declined CNBC’s request for comment.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum revealed in April that the Trump administration was considering taking equity stakes in miners to back them against state-sponsored competition in China.