2023 MLB trade deadline tracker: Our latest intel, rumors and completed deals
The 2023 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
What does Shohei Ohtani‘s future look like with the Los Angeles Angels? Could Marcus Stroman, Cody Bellinger and Jack Flaherty be dealt to contenders? And which of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants will go all-in to boost their 2023 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
Trade grades: Report card for every major deal | Passan’s deadline preview
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MLB trade deadline buzz
July 26 updates
Angels making moves: Word spread late Wednesday that the Angels had essentially pulled Shohei Ohtani off the trade market, largely because they want to contend for the playoffs. And then the Angels proved it almost immediately — by acquiring starting pitcher Lucas Giolito and relief pitcher Reynaldo Lopez for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush, two premium prospects. The Angels have put everything into winning this season. That continues.–Alden Gonzalez
Marlins looking to reel in Tim Anderson? The Marlins are looking at White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, who has finally gotten hot. He still ranks last in OPS among all qualified hitters, but his approach at the plate after the All-Star break has been much better. Anderson is hitting balls to right field again; that’s when he is at his best. Miami ranks 25th in OPS at shortstop — still ahead of the White Sox — but Anderson is a more proven commodity than anyone the Marlins employ. A change of scenery and a smaller market could do him some good, as well. — Jesse Rogers
Yankees casting wider net beyond Cody Bellinger? If Cody Bellinger is off the market, the Yankees might turn to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson or Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario as they attempt to fill a void from the left side of the batter’s box. Candelario would be a solid defensive addition at third base. — Rogers
Too many starters available? This deadline favors teams with players to deal, in general. But one executive noted the volume of teams searching for starting pitchers who are under team control beyond 2023 — and he wonders whether all of the teams looking to move rental starting pitchers (impending free agents) will find trade partners. Among the available starting pitchers who could be free agents this fall: Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Rich Hill, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Carlos Carrasco, Jose Quintana, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen and Brad Keller. — Buster Olney
Don’t expect a McCutchen trade: Andrew McCutchen is a free agent at season’s end and might normally be considered a possible trade target. But in this case, there seems to be an understanding between the player and team that he’ll remain with the Pirates through the 2023 season, in a continuation of what has been a strong reunion. — Olney
July 25 updates
Dodgers bring back Hernandez in deal with Red Sox. The Los Angeles Dodgers, in search of depth throughout their infield, reached a deal to reacquire Enrique Hernandez from the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, sources told ESPN. Grades
The Dodgers have more work to do: The Dodgers’ acquisition of super-utilityman Enrique Hernandez “doesn’t preclude us from exploring other right-handed bats,” general manager Brandon Gomes said Tuesday.
A right-handed hitter is still a main target for the Dodgers, along with help for both their rotation and their bullpen. The versatility throughout their roster — Hernandez, Chris Taylor and Mookie Betts can all play the infield and the outfield — allows them to not be beholden to specific positions while pursuing offensive help.
Adding Hernandez could free the Dodgers up to use current major leaguers in a trade — but they might have to wait on that. Trade talks, Gomes said, have been slow-moving with so many teams undecided on being adders or subtractors. Most of the action might wait until the final day or two. — Alden Gonzalez
Will Yankees go after Bellinger … or another outfielder? Scouts who have watched the Yankees over the past couple of weeks believe this team is more than a piece or two away — even if one of those pieces is Aaron Judge. But if there is one need the front office would like to address before the trade deadline, it’s in the outfield, a notably thin area even with Judge on the verge of returning from his foot injury.
Cody Bellinger, the left-handed-hitting past MVP whose father wore pinstripes, has long been seen as an ideal fit. But what if the Cubs, with by far the highest run differential in their division, decide to hold onto him? Or, more likely, what if another suitor is ultimately more aggressive?
The Yankees would prefer a left-handed, middle-of-the-order-type hitter to include in an outfield mix highlighted by the right-handed-hitting Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Harrison Bader. But they’d be open to a right-handed-hitting option if he stands as a clear upgrade, a source familiar with the team’s thinking said. The next tier of available outfielders seems to be made up mostly of right-handed-hitters, including Mark Canha, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas and Dylan Carlson (Carlson is a switch-hitter, but he has been far better from the right side this season).
First, though, the Yankees have to decide how they feel about their current team, specifically whether they want to augment it or shed some pieces in hopes of freeing up payroll. They’re among the many who still seem to be undecided. — Gonzalez
Chicago is buzzing ahead of the deadline: There were half a dozen scouts in the stands at Guaranteed Rate Field for the beginning of the Cubs/White Sox crosstown series on Tuesday. Both Chicago teams could subtract at the deadline and there’s no shortage of talent between them. Most interesting: The top scouts from the Yankees, in attendance to watch Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger, were the same personnel who scouted Anthony Rizzo before the Yankees traded for him in 2021.
Tuesday’s Cubs starter, Kyle Hendricks, is not expected to be moved at the deadline, according to sources. He has a team option for next year and will likely be a Cub in 2024.
Lance Lynn, scheduled to pitch for Sox on Wednesday, wants another shot at the playoffs. His splits suggest he pitches against the righty dominant Blue Jays or Yankees rather than for them, one scout opined. Lefties have a 1.055 OPS off him while righties have compiled just a .644 mark. A reunion in Texas is not out of the question. Los Angeles or San Francisco are possible as well. — Rogers
July 24 updates
The uncertainty surrounding Ohtani: The contingent of English- and Japanese-speaking media members who cover the Los Angeles Angels posed for a photo Sunday. It was the team’s last home game before a 10-day road trip that will spill past the trade deadline, and thus, it was potentially the last time that group — most of whom are dedicated to covering Shohei Ohtani wherever he goes — will be together.
Such is the state of things.
Nine days remain until the Aug. 1 trade deadline, and there is still a lot of uncertainty as to whether Ohtani, the Angels’ transformative two-way star, will be dealt before then. Front-office sources throughout the industry said things were quiet on the trade front over the weekend, and many of them have a hard time believing Angels owner Arte Moreno will trade Ohtani in the first place — especially since the team has found a way to remain in contention without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
But the Angels have not publicly declared that Ohtani will stay, so teams throughout the sport are preparing for the possibility that he can be had. They have to be ready to act; acquiring a player of that magnitude takes a lot of legwork. — Gonzalez
1:05
Who is a sleeper team to trade for Shohei Ohtani?
Buster Olney maintains that Shohei Ohtani is unavailable for trades, but identifies the Rays as a team that could put together an appealing package if the Angels change their position.
How valuable is Bellinger on the market? The Chicago Cubs can only hope Ohtani isn’t moved, as Cody Bellinger is having a resurgent year and an even better month of July. The price should be high, though, with or without Ohtani on the market. There can’t be many teams more in need of Bellinger than the New York Yankees, but the Toronto Blue Jays need left-handed hitting help as well. The noise about the Astros’ interest is just that: noise.
If any candidate was eligible for a trade and re-sign with his old team, it’s Bellinger. The moment the Cubs move him, they need to replace him. Reliever Mark Leiter Jr. is also garnering interest as the Cubs have done a decent job of developing and flipping relievers in recent years. Marcus Stroman also has interest from the obvious contenders. — Rogers
Will the Padres be adding or dealing? It might be hard to believe, given his nature, that San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller won’t be aggressive one way or another, either selling off veteran players or acquiring them. As of now, though, the expectation is that starter Blake Snell and closer Josh Hader will remain with the team, according to a person familiar with the team’s thinking.
If available, Snell would probably be the best starting pitcher available, and Hader would probably be the best relief pitcher available. Both are free agents at season’s end, and if the Padres don’t believe they can truly contend in 2023, they could use both to get younger, cheaper players that balance out both the roster and the payroll, better positioning the club for 2024.
At the moment, though, the Padres don’t seem ready to punt on 2023. But a lot can change this week during their six-game homestand against the Pirates and Rangers. A lack of significant traction could prompt Preller to pivot in the other direction. And if he does, perhaps superstar outfielder Juan Soto, a free agent after 2024, will be available, too. If there’s one thing Preller has proved in his Padres tenure, it’s that he doesn’t take half-measures. — Gonzalez
The Cards’ stance at the deadline: The St. Louis Cardinals will start sifting through offers this week. Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are as good as gone. Unless Snell is moved, Montgomery is going to be the best lefty starter on the market. Most contenders have some interest, including the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros. St. Louis wants controllable pitching in return and could attach an outfielder in a package. From the position players side, Paul DeJong could make sense, since he has team options over the next two seasons. What happens with Jordan Hicks is still a question mark. — Rogers
Could Dodgers add All-Star third baseman? The Los Angeles Dodgers might be in first place in the National League West, but they’re also one of the most needy teams heading into the trade deadline. They need starting and relief pitching, and they’d also like to add a right-handed bat to their lineup, with position not being much of a factor.
One name to watch here is Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals third baseman who is owed a very reasonable $94 million over the next three years. The Dodgers have long been enamored of Arenado, 32, and they see third base as a need they’ll have to address in the offseason given their present construction.
The Cardinals aren’t expected to trade Arenado at the moment, but the Dodgers have the type of young talent — particularly pitching — to sway teams in a situation like this. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, but he grew up in Southern California and the expectation is that he would waive it for a team like the Dodgers. — Gonzalez
Candelario on the move? The Washington Nationals will subtract at the deadline, with third baseman Jeimer Candelario their best trade chip right now. With Josh Donaldson out, the switch-hitting Candelario could be a perfect fit for the Yankees. — Rogers
White Sox dealing pitchers: Lucas Giolito will be moved as he has no chance of re-signing in Chicago. He’d be a good addition for the pitching-needy Cincinnati Reds. There has been no indication Dylan Cease will get traded — not with two years remaining of team control and few good Chicago White Sox starters under contract after this season. If Joe Kelly is healthy, he and Kendall Graveman are options for any of the contenders. Tim Anderson‘s future in Chicago is also murky. — Rogers
Trade tracker
Giolito heads to the Angels
The Los Angeles Angels acquired RHP Lucas Giolito and RHP Reynaldo López from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for minor league LHP Ky Bush and C Edgar Quero, the teams announced Wednesday.
Rosario to the Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired shortstop Amed Rosario from the Cleveland Guardians. Noah Syndergaard is headed to the Guardians in return. Story » | Grades »
Twins and Marlins swap relievers
The Minnesota Twins acquired Dylan Floro from the Miami Marlins in exchange for Jorge Lopez on Wednesday in a swap of struggling right-handed relievers. Story »
Mariners adding arm to pen
Reliever Trent Thornton, who was DFA’d last week by Blue Jays, is being traded to the Mariners, sources tell ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Toronto will receive Triple-A infielder Mason McCoy. Story»
Dodgers reunite with former utility player
Enrique Hernandez is headed back to Los Angeles after the Dodgers traded RHP Nick Robertson and RHP Justin Hagenman for him. Story » | Grades »
Mets add to bullpen in early deal
Bullpen help is on its way to New York, with the Mets trading LHP Zach Muckenhirn to the Mariners for RHP Trevor Gott RHP Chris Flexen. Story »
Texas lands resurgent reliever
Breakout Rangers acquire Aroldis Chapman from Royals for LHP Cole Ragans and OF Roni Cabrera. Story »
MLB trade deadline analysis
Olney: High tension as Arte Moreno, Angels mull Ohtani trade
What an MLB exec says eight bubble teams should do
Let’s make a deal! Proposing nine potential Ohtani blockbusters
Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.
Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change from week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 yards passing and 200 rushing per game. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make to challenge in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.
Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most-difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: Tennessee
Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.
Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: USC
Work to do: Nebraska, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.
Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge with a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …
Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.
Group of 5
Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
The opener of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers had a little bit of everything.
So what can we expect in Game 2? We’ve got you covered with the top moments from today’s game, as well as takeaways after the final out.
Key links: How this NLCS could decide if baseball is played in 2027 | Bracket
Top moments
Follow pitch-by-pitch on Gamecast
Ohtani gets in on the fun with RBI single
Shohei Ohtani extends the Dodgers lead! #NLCS pic.twitter.com/yPksuiw557
— MLB (@MLB) October 15, 2025
Muncy’s drive adds to L.A.’s lead
Max Muncy got just enough #NLCS https://t.co/ayn3zqzIms pic.twitter.com/Bv02aaeIgv
— MLB (@MLB) October 15, 2025
Dodgers take their first lead of Game 2
Andy Pages drives in the second @Dodgers run of the inning! #NLCS pic.twitter.com/PcRzInEX5m
— MLB (@MLB) October 15, 2025
Teoscar answers with a blast of his own
GAME TWO TEO #NLCS pic.twitter.com/dEZyCDtXJp
— MLB (@MLB) October 15, 2025
Chourio gets Brewers on board first
JACKSON CHOURIO LEADOFF BLAST! #NLCS pic.twitter.com/gi7YrJHXpo
— MLB (@MLB) October 15, 2025
The winner of the National League Championship Series could determine whether Major League Baseball is played in 2027.
This might sound far-fetched. It is not. What looks like a best-of-seven baseball series, which starts Monday as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1, will play out as a proxy of the coming labor war between MLB and the MLB Players Association.
Owners across the game want a salary cap — and if the Dodgers, with their record $500 million-plus payroll, win back-to-back World Series, it will only embolden the league’s push to regulate salaries. The Brewers, consistently a bottom-third payroll team, emerging triumphant would serve as the latest evidence that winners can germinate even in the game’s smallest markets and that the failures of other low-revenue teams have less to do with spending than execution.
The truth, of course, exists somewhere in between. But in between is not where the two parties stake out their negotiating positions in what many expect to be a brutal fight to determine the future of the game’s economics. And that is why whoever comes out victorious likely will be used as a cudgel when formal negotiations begin next spring for the next version of the collective bargaining agreement that expires Dec. 1, 2026.
If it’s the Dodgers, MLB owners — who already were vocal publicly and even more so privately about Los Angeles spending as much as the bottom six teams in payroll combined this year — will likely cry foul even louder. Already, MLB is expected to lock out players upon the agreement’s expiration. Back-to-back championships by the Dodgers could embolden MLB and add to a chorus of fans who see a cap as a panacea for the plague of big-money teams monopolizing championships over the past decade.
Such a scenario would not scare the union off its half-century-old anti-cap stance. The MLBPA has no intention of negotiating if a cap remains on the table, and considering MLB was on the cusp of losing games in 2022 because of a negotiation that didn’t include a cap, players already have spoken among themselves about how to weather missing time in 2027. Certainly, the Brewers winning wouldn’t ensure avoiding that, but if in any argument about the necessity of a cap, the union can counter that the juggernaut Dodgers lost to a team of self-proclaimed Average Joes with a payroll a quarter of the size, it reinforces the point that team-building acumen can exist regardless of financial might.
The Brewers have joined the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians as vanguards of low-revenue success in this decade. Over the past eight years, Milwaukee has won five NL Central titles and made the playoffs seven times. At 97-65 this year, the Brewers owned the best record in baseball. And they did so with a unique blend of players.
Of the 26 players on Milwaukee’s NLCS roster, 15 came via trade, according to ESPN Research, including a majority of its best players (slugger Christian Yelich, catcher William Contreras, ace Freddy Peralta and Trevor Megill, the closer for most of the season). The Brewers drafted four (Brice Turang, Jacob Misiorowski, Sal Frelick and Aaron Ashby, all major contributors), signed three as minor league free agents, brought in two via international amateur free agency (their best player, Jackson Chourio, and closer Abner Uribe) and snagged one in the minor league portion of the offseason Rule 5 draft.
That leaves one major league free agent. One. And it was left-hander Jose Quintana, who signed a one-year, $4 million deal in March.
Think about that: The MLBPA, which has fought for free agency since its inception, would be heralding a team that does not spend on free agents. Strange bedfellows, yes, but it strengthens the union’s position: If the current system is beyond repair because of money, how did a team that doesn’t spend win a championship?
The Dodgers, on the other hand, are not nearly as free-agent-heavy as might be assumed. They’ve acquired the most players via trade, too, though it’s only nine, and several of them — from Mookie Betts to Tyler Glasnow to Tommy Edman to Alex Vesia — play a significant role on the team. Los Angeles signed five major league free agents (including Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Blake Snell), plus two professional international free agents (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Hyeseong Kim), two amateur international free agents (Roki Sasaki and Andy Pages) and two minor league free agents (Max Muncy and Justin Dean). They drafted five of their players — one more than the Brewers, whose development system is regarded as one of baseball’s best — and rounded out their roster with Jack Dreyer, an undrafted free agent.
Dreyer highlights what the Dodgers and Brewers do exceptionally well: extract talent from players through systems that value a combination of scouting, analytics and superior coaching. It doesn’t matter whether you spend half a billion dollars or the $115 million or so currently on the Brewers’ books. If you can become an organization that gets the best out of players, winning will follow.
Perhaps if they weren’t so terminally parked at opposite ends of the continuum, the league and union could agree that staking an argument around one playoff series is foolhardy. Both sides should understand that, in the grand scheme, a seven-game series says very little, particularly when it comes to the complicated economic system of 30 billion-dollar corporations competing in the same space.
But this battle is as much about narrative as it is reality, and if MLB is going to push for a salary cap, it needs as much evidence as possible, and the Dodgers becoming the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back World Series would provide another nugget on top of the reams the league already cites. The last team to do that was the New York Yankees — and the competitive-balance tax, the proto-cap that currently penalizes high-spending teams, came into existence specifically to check what other owners believed the Yankees’ runaway spending.
The Dodgers are the new Yankees, more moneyed and willing to spend than anyone. They’ve won the NL West 12 of the past 13 years and captured championships in 2020 and 2024. And despite their seeming inevitability, baseball is not suffering in most areas important to the league. Television ratings are up. Attendance has increased. The implementation of the pitch clock before the 2024 season modernized the game and is now almost universally beloved. The addition of an automated ball-strike challenge system next year will only add to the game’s appeal.
This NLCS is baseball at its best: a well-oiled machine of superstars, peaking at the right time, looking to become baseball’s first back-to-back champions since 2000, against a team that plays a delightful brand of baseball, is wildly likable and always seems to succeed, too. The Brewers haven’t won a championship yet — not just in this recent run of excellence but in their 57-year history — and derailing the Dodgers en route to doing so would make the tale of triumph that much greater.
And, yes, despite the higher win total, the Brewers enter this series as the underdog, and it’s a fair designation. Even if they swept the Dodgers in the six games they played in July. Even if their bullpen is filled with fireballing nastiness. Even if they have whacked as many home runs this postseason as Los Angeles, despite the Dodgers hitting 78 more during the regular season.
There will be a lot of great baseball played in Milwaukee and Los Angeles over the next week-plus, fans’ cups running over with the sorts of matchups that make October the most special month of the year. Ohtani, Betts and Freeman trying to catch up to Misiorowski’s fastball and read his slider. Chourio, Contreras and Turang trying to solve Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani. The Brewers’ terrifying bullpen, with five relievers throwing 97 mph-plus, against the team that hit high-octane fastballs better than anyone this year. The Dodgers trying to figure out if they can rely on any reliever other than Sasaki, and the Brewers, who were the fifth-toughest team to strike out this season, trying to get to Los Angeles’ bullpen with a barrage of balls in play.
While the baseball itself will be indisputable, this NLCS is bigger than the game. Its tentacles will reach into the future, with an unwitting but undeniable place in something far more consequential. It’s just one series, yes. But it’s so much more.
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