ESPN MLB insider Author of “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports”
The disassembly of the 2023 New York Mets, the team with the highest payroll ever in baseball, began late Thursday when they traded closer David Robertson to the Miami Marlins for two rookie league teenagers, the team announced.
Robertson, 38, took over the ninth-inning role for the Mets after star Edwin Diaz injured his knee during a World Baseball Classic celebration. Robertson was a stalwart at the back end of a shaky bullpen, posting a 2.05 ERA over 44 innings, striking out 48 and saving 14 games.
He’ll join Jorge Lopez, whom the Marlins acquired from the Twins for reliever Dylan Floro, in a reconstituted relief corps for a Marlins team that, at 55-48, is a half-game back of the final National League East wild-card spot.
“I figured I would be moved, I just didn’t know where,” Robertson said Thursday night. “Just really didn’t have an idea of where, so it’s kind of a shock, but it’s part of this game.”
The Mets are 48-54, the fifth-worst record in the NL, and 6½ games behind the Marlins. After not making a run into playoff contention over the past few weeks, they started to deal from their underachieving roster with Robertson. How many players they’ll trade is unclear — outfielder Tommy Pham is likely to move, while starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer remain far longer shots — but the team with a luxury tax payroll of more than $380 million and a tax in excess of another $100 million will not look the same come the 6 p.m. trade deadline Aug. 1.
Asked if the Robertson trade is the first of more deals to come for the Mets, general manager Billy Eppler said the team is ‘listening to where clubs are when they call us.”
“If that economic equation points to us making the deal that’s best for the organization, then we’re gonna have to really consider it,” Eppler said.
In return for Robertson, the Mets received 18-year-old middle infielder Marco Vargas and 19-year-old switch-hitting catcher Ronald Hernandez, both of whom were excelling in the Florida Complex League this year. The pair is well-regarded by evaluators — particularly Vargas, who multiple sources said could grow into a top prospect — but unlikely to help the Mets until at earliest 2026.
“It’s not a complete surprise. You knew this was a possibility,” Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo said after Thursday’s 2-1 win over the Nationals. “But it’s setting in that this is the path that we’re going down. That’s never an easy pill to swallow. You can’t sit here and say you that were completely blindsided by it. You had to know this was a possibility. You were just hoping that we could do enough in this last week and a half or so to maybe give it a shot and go and see what we could do in the last two months. I think they kind of made it clear the direction we’re going in. The rest of us just have to take in stride, keep going out there and try to win games.”
As New York reckons with the disappointment of 2023, the hope is to build an elite farm system while still spending near the top of the sport. The attempt to build a World Series-caliber team this season started with the re-signing of Diaz and Nimmo and continued with Verlander’s arrival to complement the ace they’d signed a year earlier, Max Scherzer.
Success never materialized. The injury to Diaz, the best closer in baseball last season, changed the structure of their bullpen, and attempts to patch it failed. Now, in addition to Pham and the starters, outfielder Mark Canha and reliever Adam Ottavino could be dealt as the Mets shift their focus past 2023 and onto the future.
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
CINCINNATI — Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jake Fraley was activated from the 10-day injured list on Saturday.
He had injured his right shoulder while trying to make a diving catch June 23 against the New York Yankees.
An MRI revealed a partially torn labrum that will eventually require surgery. Fraley received a cortisone shot and will try to play through it for the rest of the season.