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The Bank of England has raised interest rates for the fourteenth successive time, lifting its official rate to 5.25%.

The quarter percentage point increase was somewhat smaller than some economists had expected, following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation data last month.

“Inflation is falling and that’s good news,” said the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey.

“We know that inflation hits the least well off hardest and we need to make absolutely sure that it falls all the way back to the 2% target. That’s why we’ve raised rates to 5.25% today.”

However, while the Bank’s forecasts do not imply a recession in the coming years, they paint the picture of an economy which is both weaker than previously forecast and effectively flatlining all the way through to 2026.

This is, said the Bank, in large part because of the fact that interest rates are expected to remain at high levels for considerably longer than markets previously anticipated.

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Bank of England hints economic pain felt by many to be a long, drawn-out affair

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While the Bank itself doesn’t deliver its own interest rate forecasts, it dropped a heavy hint that it does expect borrowing costs to stay high for some time, saying in the minutes to its policy meeting that: “The [Monetary Policy Committee] would ensure that Bank Rate was sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.”

The nine-person MPC was split on today’s decision, with two members (Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel) voting for a bigger increase and one member (Swati Dhingra) voting to keep rates on hold.

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The Bank of England has increased the base interest rate from 5% to 5.25%, which is the highest interest rate rise since March 2008.

However, economists and financial markets are betting on further increases, with markets pricing in a peak of 5.75% or slightly higher.

The Bank’s forecasts indicate that the prime minister is likely to meet his pledge to halve inflation by the end of the year, pointing towards a rate of around 4.9% in the final quarter (the government’s pledge implies a rate of 5.4%).

However, considerably uncertainty remains, with around a 20% chance of a higher figure.

While the Bank’s forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the year to the third quarter is slightly higher than before (0.8% rather than the 0.6% it forecast in May), it is still far weaker than what would be considered “trend growth”.

Moreover, the GDP forecast for the same period in 2024 was also cut from 0.6% to 0.3%, as was the relevant forecast in 2025 (from 0.8% to 0.3%). All told, they add up to a long period of insipid economic growth.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said, “If we stick to the plan, the Bank forecasts inflation will be below 3% in a year’s time without the economy falling into a recession.

“But that doesn’t mean it’s easy for families facing higher mortgage bills so we will continue to do what we can to help households.”

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “This will be incredibly worrying for households across the country.”

“Responsibility for this crisis lies with the Tories. They’ve crashed our economy leaving working people worse off.

“Labour’s plans will boost growth and get bills down.”

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West has ‘good hand in China economic battlefield but it doesn’t have to be war’

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West has 'good hand in China economic battlefield but it doesn't have to be war'

The boss of the world’s biggest bank has told Sky News that Western economies have a “good hand” in the “economic battlefield” with China but declared it does not have to be war.

In a wide-ranging interview with Sky’s Wilfred Frost, chief executive and chairman of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon said the West was going to have a “hard time” as long as China had close ties with Russia.

But he said it was well placed due to the resilience of their collective economies and long-standing partnerships, such as NATO.

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However, he warned of the dangers of fragmentation since Donald Trump, when US president, pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017.

He also said that Joe Biden’s administration should have worked with allies over the effects of his Inflation Reduction Act.

The massive programme of incentives to bolster the green economy had the effect of taking investment out of Europe at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine was dominating the agenda.

The bank boss warned too of a backlash from China over US tariffs against its electric cars and solar panels announced just this week, arguing that a joint approach from western powers over China more generally would carry more weight.

Mr Dimon, who has run JPMorgan since 2005 and is widely seen as the most influential boss of a financial services company in the United States, said: “We have competition with China.

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Why is the US taking aim at China?

“I think the American government is doing the right thing to fully engage. That doesn’t mean the Chinese are going to like everything we do just like we don’t like everything they do but it doesn’t have to be war, it can be tough competition and we should be prepared for that.”

“The most important thing”, he added, “is that we do it together”.

“They’re not an enemy, you know, but they’re competing. They want a different world than we want. And I think they want a different world than we want in the Western world… it’s worth fighting for.”

“We all made a little bit of mistake in how we kind of expected them after WTO (World Trade Organisation) to become more Western and things like that. It’s okay. Don’t cry over spilled milk,” he concluded.

Mr Dimon was speaking 24 hours after the US-based bank, which has 22,000 staff and a 200-year history in the UK market, announced £40m in new investments to help connect young people and underserved communities to economic opportunities.

They followed the opening of a new tech centre in Glasgow.

JPMorgan Chase – perhaps best-known in this country for its Chase retail division – is the biggest bank in the world by market value with a capitalisation of almost $600bn (£475bn).

Mr Dimon, who was initially critical of Brexit following the UK’s split from the EU, spoke of the bank’s continuing commitment to the country having called the future of its UK operations into question in 2021.

Asked about the looming election, he said that talks with Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer had left him in no doubt that both the Conservatives and Labour were “pro business”.

He described how growing economies benefits everybody as it allows for investment.

“Everybody I heard… Conservative and Labour, (is) talking about growing the economy, technology, research and developments, simplifying regulations, making it easier for people to start businesses and grow businesses, making sure schools educate… those policies work,” he said.

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Brexit border IT crash delays fresh food imports by more than a day

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Brexit border IT crash delays fresh food imports by more than a day

IT systems failures at the UK border have caused major delays to fresh food shipments from the EU, with importers complaining of chaos at the busiest border post as lorries were delayed by more than 24 hours.

Sky News understands a key software system crashed at the weekend, leaving shipments of meat, cheese, fresh food and flowers being held for long periods as paperwork was processed by hand.

The system failure comes just two weeks after the introduction of new processes the government promised would be “world-leading”.

Physical checks on food and plant imports from the EU were introduced at the end of April as part of a long-delayed post-Brexit border regime.

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Imports coming through the UK’s busiest port at Dover are now routed through a new border facility 22 miles inland at Sevington in Kent, where paperwork is supposed to be cleared and any physical checks carried out.

Lorries arriving this weekend however faced long delays and chaotic scenes as a result of the the failure of the Automatic Licence Verification System (ALVS).

The ALVS system is supposed to automatically clear goods through customs and, according to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), deliver “a substantial time and efficiency saving for trade”.

Instead, border staff and importers faced problems almost immediately, with the most acute issues last weekend particularly affecting imports from Italy.

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Brexit border checks to ‘add billions’

Patricia Michelson, founder of La Fromagerie, which imports cheese and other produce from Europe, told Sky News her consignments of fresh fruit and vegetables, cheese and cured meats were delayed by more than 48 hours.

Scheduled to be delivered at 6am on Monday they did not arrive until Tuesday morning after the lorry was delayed at Sevington, leaving some of the produce spoiled or unfit for sale because it may not have been kept chilled.

“It is unforgivable, we have spent days and weeks on making sure that we were ready for the new systems, that we get the paperwork right, we have checked and rechecked to make sure it ran smoothly.

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New Brexit rules impacting flowers

“Then we find the systems crash, apparently because of a power outage, and our goods are being turned back and then held for hours.

“They built a major new system, doubtless spending millions, and at the second time of asking it doesn’t work. All we got from DEFRA by way of explanation was saying everything is in hand, when we know it is total chaos.”

Ms Michelson said the system failures had added to the challenge of post-Brexit border controls for small independent businesses.

“The big suppliers and importers have the scale to pay people to run their imports, but for smaller operators like me it just adds cost and disruption.”

Nigel Jenney, chief executive of the Fresh Produce Association, said his members had encountered “total chaos” at the border since the weekend, with ongoing issues that will hit traders hard.

On Tuesday a DEFRA spokesperson confirmed that, three days after the crash, systems were still not restored.

A power outage over the weekend affected one of the systems required to process imports. For the majority of vehicles at the border there were no significant delays, but we immediately activated contingency arrangements for affected vehicles, working alongside HMRC and Border Force.

“We are working at pace to resolve the issue and expect that systems will be returning to normal functioning soon. Since the introduction of checks, our teams have been working closely with traders to ensure checks are completed efficiently and swiftly.”

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Rapid steps needed for Britain to compete in green industrial revolution – IPPR says

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Rapid steps needed for Britain to compete in green industrial revolution - IPPR says

Britain has a chance to compete in the green industrial revolution, but only if the government takes rapid steps to help shore up its industry, according to an important new report.

The analysis from The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) thinktank reveals that while the UK has deindustrialised faster than any other comparable nation in the developed world, it still has a chance to rebuild its manufacturing base and compete on the green technologies needed to reach net zero.

The new report comes as countries around the world compete to dominate green technologies such as electric cars, solar panels and wind turbines.

On Tuesday, the White House imposed 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, as well as 50% tariffs on Chinese solar panels. The US and China have both introduced vast subsidy schemes intended to buoy up their green manufacturing.

In the UK, despite various government pledges to “level up” and introduce “industrial strategy” schemes, there is nothing analogous to the schemes in the US, China or, for that matter, the EU.

An advantage in certain sectors

The new IPPR analysis is among the first attempts to pinpoint which sectors in Britain’s economy have a chance of competing on a global basis. It finds that while the UK has indeed deindustrialised far more quickly than other G7 nations, it still has a comparative advantage in certain sectors.

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These include the manufacture of heat pumps, wind turbines and green transport, including electric cars and trains.

The analysis will be closely watched, as the IPPR is seen as the leading left-leaning thinktank in the UK, with close links to the Labour Party. Although Rachel Reeves has ditched her party’s pledge to increase green investment to £28bn, she and her colleagues are understood to be eagerly awaiting the IPPR report as she builds her own plan for UK industry.

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Biden on Chinese electric vehicle tariffs

George Dibb, IPPR’s associate director for economic policy, said: “We’ve identified over 150 different products that are vital to the net zero transition. The UK already has a competitive edge in various of them compared to other countries. So we need to take those but we need to build on that to need to go further.

“We highlight three areas in particular: heat pumps, green transport, and wind. In those three sectors – that’s where the UK economy is particularly well placed to take advantage of those future facing growth opportunities.

He added: “There’s a race towards net zero. The US, Europe and China are all fighting it out for this investment. Companies need to know the UK is a place to go. So one of the things that we need [from the government] is a real industrial strategy.”

The political reaction

Labour’s shadow secretary for energy security and net zero, Ed Miliband, said: “With our abundant natural resources, Britain can be a world leader in green industries. But we are being let down by a clown car government that is letting jobs go overseas and waving the white flag for British industries.

“Labour says it is time for a new era of industrial policy- we unapologetically care about what Britain makes, where we make it, and how we make it. That is why we will set up GB Energy, a publicly owned energy company, and a National Wealth Fund to invest in rebuilding the strength of our national industries.”

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