How much is MLB’s ultimate unicorn worth? The Shohei Ohtani True Value Calculator
Since the days when we first heard about “the Japanese Babe Ruth,” Shohei Ohtani has made even that lofty comparison obsolete, obliterating every expectation we could have reasonably had for him. No one, not even The Babe, has done what Ohtani has done in the big leagues as the first two-way baseball star of the contemporary era.
This winter, baseball’s ultimate unicorn is set to hit the open market. Speculation about what kind of deal
Ohtani might come away with has been wild, every bit as fantastic as the whispers we heard emanating from the
Pacific Rim a half-decade ago, about this mysterious guy who had the audacity to want to be a full-time hitter
and pitcher in MLB — at the same time.
Last offseason, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge received the largest free agent contract in baseball history
— nine years, $360 million. The question about what kind of contract Ohtani will ultimately receive is both
related to and slightly different from what kind of on-field value he has produced. That’s because it’s
entirely possible that no team can really pay Ohtani’s real market value. He’s that good and, certainly, that
unique.
Nevertheless, we asked ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle to explore this question of Ohtani’s true
value, the ways in which he has built it and what it all might mean when teams come calling during the highly
anticipated hot stove season.
Calculating His Base Value
No player has been more productive than Ohtani over the past three seasons (the time most relevant to his
market value), and no one is close. As a two-way, hitter-pitcher combo of unprecedented ability, Ohtani is
able to compile value almost as if he were two different players, occupying two simultaneous roster spots at
once. Underlying those general components of baseball are discrete skills, the things that make a great
hitter what he is and make a great pitcher an ace.
To see how good Ohtani is at these underlying components, we separated them out individually, using those
past three seasons as a benchmark. For hitting skills, we looked at hitting for average, getting on base,
hitting for power and baserunning. For pitching skills, we examined Ohtani’s three main pitches
individually, combining the remainder into one category.
The run estimates of each of these skills have been modeled to fit the underlying metrics that feed into
his WAR calculation. Once we convert the runs to WAR, we can see where he ranks by percentile against other
big leaguers in that skill, and we convert that production into a valuation based on an $8 million per win
standard.
Those calculations help determine the baseline valuation Ohtani will carry into free agency.
Avg. Annual Value
$76m
Over the last 3 years
= 1 win = $8m
Risk & Potential for injury
Of course, a number that lofty is no guarantee. Ohtani famously missed the pitching part of the 2019 and
2020 seasons because of injury, including Tommy John surgery. There is an injury risk with his next deal —
and the history of long-term, high-value free agent contracts given to pitchers is dicey at best.
Since returning full time in 2021, though, Ohtani has ranked 10th in plate appearances and 31st in innings
pitched. That’s an unparalleled record of durability fueled by Ohtani’s legendary work ethic — but not even
he is immune to the risk.
Still, consider what would happen if Ohtani did have to stop pitching after this season. That’s a lot of
lost production, but his team would still end up with one of the five best hitters in baseball, someone any
organization would break the bank to pay in free agency. Also, don’t forget Ohtani is one of the fastest
players in the majors. If he were to cease pitching, he’d most likely pick up value on the bases, and he has
a proven track record in Japan as an outstanding defender.
In WAR calculations, he’d generate much more positional value than he does now, as strictly a designated
hitter.
The bottom line is that no contract at the level of what Ohtani is going to get is without risk. But the
floor of production for him is much higher than it is for other free agents, simply because of the unmatched
variety of skills with which Ohtani can contribute at an elite level.
Projecting Future Worth
So, even if Ohtani could do only one of the things he does well, his baseline values would make him worthy
of being one of the game’s highest-paid players. For now, at least, he does both. Together, they create a
baseline estimated valuation of $76 million for on-field production. With recent superstar contracts
reaching 10 years, even for players as old as Ohtani at 29, the numbers get mind-boggling: Over a 10-year
contract, assuming flat production, that’s $760 million. Over 12 years, it’s nearly a billion dollars.
projected value of $912m
using baseline estimation
extended over 12 years
Of course, that isn’t what Ohtani will realistically command in free agency. When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel
polled MLB executives about Ohtani’s
worth, the guesses were varied, and though a contract of a 10- to 12-year duration was a popular
choice, the per-season payouts would be considerably less than $76 million.
Aging curves are hit or miss, especially with an outlier like Ohtani. Considering Ohtani’s past
productivity, here is our take on how aging would affect his on-field production and, in turn, how you might
calculate his fair-market contract value. We used the baseline values shown above and “aged” Ohtani’s
production over an assumed 12-year deal.
Aging Adjustment
-$122.3m
Potential loss of value
Granted, there is more than a little optimism in these numbers. They assume Ohtani will remain a full-time
hitter and pitcher over the duration of his contract, and the standard curve suggests a smooth aging pattern
that almost certainly will not happen.
Nevertheless, if anyone can achieve a run of success of this sort, it is Ohtani. And if he were to play out
his career in this fashion, there would be a new consensus answer to this question: Who is the greatest
baseball player ever?
Free Agent Comparisons
Ohtani’s unique combination of traits makes him a unicorn in terms of historical free agent comparables.
Still, we can look at some deals that the most similar hitters and pitchers have signed in recent seasons.
calculating the low end
By matching each free agent since 2018 against Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, we can rank them
by similarity. The similarity scores are based on a weighted average of each player’s WAR over the three seasons
before free agency; the more recent seasons carry more weight.
By averaging out those deals and combining them, we can imagine what a hypothetical Ohtani contract could
look like. Adding the average contract for similar hitters — $162 million — and the average contract for
similar pitchers — $141.5 million — we get $303.5 million.
Most similar free agents
$303.5m
calculating the high end
However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of
past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max
deals on these lists — the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022
season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.
If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million — over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of
$56.7 million.
Priciest Peers
$624m
These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the
longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt
for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s
also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold
implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team
options and mutual options.
Where Could He Go?
There is a strong possibility that the numbers on whatever pact Ohtani ultimately signs will be unlike any
we’ve ever seen. The team that splurges will be paying not just for Ohtani’s hitting, pitching and running
but also his marketability — and there’s a good chance that team will be well rewarded. Ohtani is headed
for a record contract, which is appropriate for baseball’s most unique player, one who has already
transcended those old comparisons to Babe Ruth.
So where will Ohtani land? Based on a poll of MLB executives, agents and insiders conducted
earlier this year, and the latest buzz around baseball, here are six of his many potential suitors to
watch.
Los Angeles Angels
2023 Payroll: $221m
Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Payroll: $236m
San Francisco Giants
2023 Payroll: $196m
Seattle Mariners
2023 Payroll: $153m
New York Mets
2023 Payroll: $346m
Chicago Cubs
2023 Payroll: $189m
Los Angeles Angels: They kept Ohtani at the trade deadline with the hope of re-signing him, but
few free agents return to the same team.
Los Angeles Dodgers: They were quiet this past offseason for a reason. Imagine a big three of
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani.
San Francisco Giants: They pursued Judge last year, have lots of room to increase payroll and
need a franchise player.
Seattle Mariners: Reportedly the runners-up for Ohtani in 2018, their future looks brighter than
the Angels’. But will they offer enough?
New York Mets: After trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets need a pitcher. And a
DH. And they have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.
Chicago Cubs: They’re a big-market team that’s ready to win — they might be the sleeper team in
the Ohtani sweepstakes.
LOS ANGELES — Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto was placed on the 15-day injured list before Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Royals with tightness in the triceps of his pitching arm.
Manager Dave Roberts said Yamamoto, 25, would undergo testing Sunday to determine the severity of the injury and a recovery timeline.
“He’s a guy that we’re still trying to learn a lot about, and appreciate the fact that the most important time of the season is yet to come,” Roberts said. “His health is paramount. So for us to be proactive and put him on the IL seems like the smartest thing.”
Yamamoto, playing his first year in the majors after departing his native Japan and signing a record $325 million, 12-year contract, is 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA.
Yamamoto left Saturday’s loss to Kansas City after two innings. He said through an interpreter after the game that his scheduled start the previous Thursday against Texas had been pushed back because of the tightness.
He also said the tightness was gone for most of Saturday, but he started feeling it again when he was warming up before the game.
Yamamoto threw two-hit ball over seven innings at the New York Yankees on June 7. He tossed 106 pitches, the fourth straight time he had thrown more than 100.
Roberts said he has been mindful of Yamamoto’s pitch count, but also noted Yamamoto was used to throwing 120 pitches or more when he pitched in Japan.
With Bobby Miller returning to the rotation for Wednesday’s game at Colorado, the Dodgers will still have a five-man starting staff. Clayton Kershaw will also make his first rehab start this week.
Los Angeles’ rotation went into Sunday’s game with the majors’ seventh-lowest ERA at 3.49.
The Dodgers also placed right-hander Michael Grove on the IL with a right intercostal strain. Right-handers J.P. Feyereisen and Michael Petersen were called up from Triple-A Oklahoma City. To make room for Petersen on the 40-man roster, right-hander Joe Kelly was transferred to the 60-day IL.
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
BOSTON — New York Yankees top prospect Jasson Dominguez was placed on Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre’s injured list Sunday with a left side injury.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Dominguez suffered the injury on an “awkward” checked swing in his third plate appearance Saturday. He finished the at-bat, striking out looking, and played another inning in center field before he was removed from the game. He went 1-for-3 with a stolen base and two strikeouts.
“He’s getting testing today,” Boone said before the Yankees faced the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. “But it’s enough to put him on the IL right away at least. I’m sure we’ll have an idea — hopefully have an idea — with what exactly we got by tonight or [Monday].”
One of the more heralded prospects in recent years, Dominguez, nicknamed “The Martian,” made his major league debut last September before his 21st birthday. He played in eight games for the Yankees, batting .258 with four home runs, before tests revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. He returned to the field after surgery in mid-May on rehab assignment.
The rehab assignment ended Wednesday when the Yankees, who have a surplus of outfielders, activated Dominguez from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Dominguez slashed .389/.405/.609 in nine games in Triple-A before the injury.
Dominguez was in the outfield for Gerrit Cole‘s dominant rehab start Friday for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The question now is whether Cole’s next outing will be his season debut in New York this week.
The Yankees are choosing between having Cole and Cody Poteet start Wednesday against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium. The team has “TBA” listed for now.
“I think we’re just going to get through today and probably make it tonight or certainly [Monday],” Boone said.
Cole, 33, has made three rehab starts since returning to game action after being diagnosed with nerve irritation and edema in his right elbow in mid-March. On Friday, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner held the Rochester Red Wings to one unearned run on two hits over 4⅓ innings. He struck out 10, walked none and threw 68 pitches. In all, he has given up two runs (one earned) across 12⅓ innings in his rehab showings.
“We don’t have to make that final call right now,” Boone said. “He’s going to pitch, probably in that five- or six-day window coming off his last one. Let’s just not tie ourselves to something until really we have to.”
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