
MLB September predictions: Playoff races, MVP and Cy Young awards, and more surprises
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adminWelcome to September! We’re five months into Major League Baseball’s 2023 season, meaning it’s all coming down to the wire as the postseason quickly approaches.
Which of the current contenders will be headed to the playoffs come October? Which teams will have narrowly missed the cut? How will the division races shape up? Who will reach the Fall Classic? Who are the favorites to win the MVP and Cy Young awards? At the end of his historic season for the Los Angeles Angels, will Shohei Ohtani win his second MVP and finish with the most home runs in the majors? And what else may happen down the stretch?
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked a panel of 17 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond. We also asked a number of them to explain their answers — particularly those who went against the grain.
Below, you’ll find our picks for the postseason, major awards and more, including a few surprising answers and some bold predictions about what’s next.
Who will finish with the best record in baseball?
Atlanta Braves: 16
Baltimore Orioles: 1
You were the only voter to not pick the Braves. How do you think the Orioles will do it? It’s as much wishful thinking as anything, since this team has been so much fun all year, but unlike the Braves, the Orioles NEED these wins to secure their first American League East title since 2014. That year also happens to be the last time they entered September in first place, and they’ve already matched last year’s win total of 83. The Braves are absolutely a better baseball team, but with the way the schedule shakes out, we could be looking at some real Orioles magic at Camden Yards to close out 2023. — Clinton Yates
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the National League: the Braves or Dodgers?
Atlanta Braves: 17
Los Angeles Dodgers: 0
Not a single person picked the Dodgers. Why are the Braves the overwhelming favorite? The Braves are overwhelming favorites for the same reason Braves fans believe Ronald Acuna Jr. should be the overwhelming favorite for the NL MVP award: consistency. From the beginning of the season to now, they’ve been an exceptional baseball team, and as magnificent as the Dodgers’ 24-5 August may have been, the Braves went 21-8 and actually had a better run differential than Los Angeles. These are clearly the two best teams in the NL. They may well be the two best teams in baseball. But as much as the Dodgers have tried to take the mantle, the Braves have done nothing to give it up. — Jeff Passan
Will the New York Yankees finish with a losing record?
Yes: 16
No: 1
Everyone seems fairly certain the Yankees will finish under .500, but you think they’ll keep their 30-year streak of consecutive winning seasons alive. How come? Legendary manager Davey Johnson always advocated for having two to three rookies on every team because of the energy they bear, and in the Yankees’ case, you can immediately see this. The addition of Jasson Dominguez, Austin Wells and others gives them a fresh feel — and it’s not as if the Yankees are just a bad team. Aaron Judge might hit 40 homers in an injury-plagued season, Gerrit Cole is the Cy Young front-runner, and they have a strong bullpen. In 2016, they were a .500 team at the trade deadline — swapping Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller while turning to rookies like Judge and Gary Sanchez — and they finished well. I think they’ll do that this year. — Buster Olney
The 2023 AL and NL MVPs will be … ?
AL
Shohei Ohtani: 17
NL
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 9
Mookie Betts: 7
Freddie Freeman: 1
Ohtani was unanimous among our voters; what makes him a standout in the MVP race? The last thing Ohtani needed to win his second AL MVP was the sympathy vote, but here we are. The Angels’ bizarre season — just when you thought they couldn’t find a different way to disappoint and confound, they did — and Ohtani’s elbow injury have cast him in a Shakespearean light. He is by far the most valuable player in baseball, and along the way he has once and for all shredded the idea that a player’s worth is contingent on his team’s success. — Tim Keown
Why does Acuna deserve MVP? I’m a numbers guy, and while this MVP race has three amazing candidates, Acuna’s numbers are simply historic and impossible to overlook, and that’s beyond just being the first 30/60 player. He has started every single Braves game out of the leadoff spot, with these paces:
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147 runs: Other than Ted Williams in 1949 and Jeff Bagwell in 2000, this hasn’t been done since World War II.
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75 stolen bases: Other than Jose Reyes in 2007, this hasn’t been done since before the 1994 strike.
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219 hits: This hasn’t been done since Jose Altuve in 2014 and would be only the ninth instance this century.
Acuna is also pacing for 37 homers, and while we all talk about the Luis Arraez-Freddie Freeman prospective batting title race, Acuna is very much also in that mix. It’ll be tough for voters to ignore those statistical accomplishments. — Tristan Cockcroft
Acuna was the longtime favorite to win MVP. Why do you think Betts can overtake him? I’ll say this off the top: I wouldn’t have any qualms with anybody voting for Acuna. It’s that close. And I don’t think WAR should ever be the end-all, be-all, regardless of the version. But Betts’ 7.8 WAR at the start of September was a good bit higher than Acuna’s 6.7 WAR. Acuna has been dinged mostly by his defense, but few would make the case that he is actually a liability on defense. In fact, most would consider him a dynamic right fielder, regardless of what the metrics show.
Acuna gets the edge in baserunning, a product of him reaching the ridiculous 60-steal milestone before the end of August, but Betts has been a valuable baserunner in his own right. Offensively, of course, it’s really close too. But to me, Betts’ ability to also play both second base and shortstop — and play it well, I might add — gives him a slight edge in a head-to-head matchup that often makes it feel as if we’re splitting hairs. His versatility has also allowed the Dodgers to put together a much better lineup against right-handed pitching. — Alden Gonzalez
The Cy Youngs will go to … ?
AL
Gerrit Cole: 13
Kevin Gausman: 3
Luis Castillo: 1
NL
Spencer Strider: 6
Blake Snell: 5
Justin Steele: 4
Zac Gallen: 2
What makes you think Gausman can beat out Cole for the award? In a bit of a down AL Cy Young race, I have Gausman with a slight lead over Cole. Gausman leads the AL in strikeouts, has an identical walk rate to Cole and has made just two fewer starts. If the Jays can get into the playoffs with strong performances from Gausman while the Yankees fade into a tumultuous offseason, I think Gausman will win the award. — Kiley McDaniel
There doesn’t seem to be a clear consensus for an AL favorite, with Strider, Snell and Steele all vying for Cy Young. Make the case for Steele. Like MVP, there has to be an element of team value to the Cy Young award. That’s where Steele enters. The Cubs would be a second tier squad without him, and there’s no debating it. He’s the only pitcher on the Cubs who qualifies for the ERA title — injuries, ineffectiveness and youth have plagued the rest of the rotation — and he’s been that stalwart every playoff contender needs. The only time he failed to pitch at least five innings this season is around the time he went on the injured list back in early June. It was a short stint as he picked up where he left off, going 9-1 with a 2.72 ERA since that minor elbow ailment. Since June, the team has gone 13-1 with him on the mound.
As for league-wide numbers, Steele’s 2.69 ERA ranks second in the NL behind Snell, who’s on a losing team. Steele also ranks first in ERA+ and fewest home runs given up per nine innings pitched at a measly 0.7. He’s given up just 11 long balls all season. His first All-Star appearance should be followed by a Cy Young award. — Jesse Rogers
Why is Strider your pick for the NL? Wins and strikeouts aren’t everything, but when someone these days actually approaches 20 of the former and 300 of the latter — and for baseball’s best team — we notice. Strider won’t win the ERA title, but it’s not like anyone has a Bob Gibson-1968 ERA, either. I go with Strider. — Eric Karabell
The 2023 World Series matchup will be … ?
AL
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 3
Texas Rangers: 3
Minnesota Twins: 1
Toronto Blue Jays: 1
Tampa Bay Rays: 1
NL
Atlanta Braves: 12
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3
Philadelphia Phillies: 1
Milwaukee Brewers: 1
You have the Astros winning the division, but the Mariners making the World Series. Explain how Seattle gets there. This is all based on fatigue and history. Recent history shows that it’s hard to get to three straight World Series and even harder to repeat, but that doesn’t mean Houston will go down easily. The Astros have pushed hard of late to get into a position to win the AL West, but eventually those pitching injuries and mileage they’ve put on their bodies over the last few years will catch up to them.
That’s where a new, emerging power will fill the void — and the Mariners are that team. They’re brimming with confidence after a post All-Star break surge. Combined with the experience gained making the playoffs last season, they’re poised to go further this time around. The key to it all comes on the mound. The Mariners feature three starters (Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert) in the top 10 in ERA in the AL. No other team can make that claim. Add their star players — like Julio Rodriguez — showing up in the second half in a dramatic way and Seattle’s OPS has jumped from 10th to second since the break. The ingredients are all there for a playoff run and an upset in the ALCS no matter who the M’s face. — Rogers
Most of our voters have the Braves making the World Series, but you chose the Phillies. Why? The Braves have the most clout. The Dodgers have the most star power. But the Phillies have the roster best equipped to win October baseball games with fewer deficiencies than either Atlanta or Los Angeles. Philadelphia sports a lineup that can generate runs with or without homering, a rotation that runs six reliable starters deep and a spitfire bullpen that is considerably deeper than it was a year ago. — Paul Hembekides
A Twins-Brewers World Series?! Explain yourself! I’m calling this the “Hot Chocolate” World Series and, yes, it is admittedly a very long shot. But given the unpredictable nature of this season in general, I’m going with an unlikely World Series matchup. (I’m also aware that the Twins have lost an unfathomable 18 consecutive postseason games going back to 2004. Using straight 50/50 odds for each game, the odds of the Twins losing 18 straight would be about 1 in 261,985. This just means: They. Are. Due.)
There are also analytic reasons to pick both teams: namely, starting pitching. The Twins’ starters are near the top of the majors in lowest OPS allowed and strikeout rate. Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez are an underrated 1-2 punch and Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda are both averaging more than 10 K’s per nine. The Twins also have a potentially dominant closer in flamethrowing Jhoan Duran and his 103-mph fastball. They’ll need another reliever or two to step up, but it’s a group that could be on a roll in October — they just need to win that first game.
The Brewers are also capable of a surprise — even upsetting the Braves. Their rotation is top five in lowest OPS allowed — and, remember, that’s with Brandon Woodruff missing most of the season. But he’s back now, Freddy Peralta is one of the hottest starters in the majors (1.71 ERA over his past seven starts with a .451 OPS allowed) and Corbin Burnes can wipe out any lineup on any given night. And they have a better bullpen than the Twins, led by closer Devin Williams and now featuring rookie Abner Uribe, who has averaged 99.5 mph with his fastball. — David Schoenfield
Who will finish with the most home runs in the majors?
Shohei Ohtani: 8
Matt Olson: 7
Pete Alonso: 1
Kyle Schwarber: 1
What makes you believe Ohtani will hit the most homers? The essence of the question for me is really “who is the better home run hitter right now?” given that the margin between Ohtani and Olson is so narrow. To me, Ohtani is the second-best home run hitter in the majors behind Judge, who is too far back to catch the leaders. So if Ohtani plays out the season, I think he’ll win it and, besides, if he’s not pitching, he’ll be able to focus on that kind of individual feat. The big, blinking caveat to this is that he’s injured. I’m sticking with him if he plays to the end of the season, but if he needs Tommy John surgery, it’s really hard to imagine he’ll wait another month to get that behind him. — Brad Doolittle
Olson is neck-and-neck with Ohtani. Why do you think he pulls ahead? This is less a bet for Olson being a superior home run hitter than it is a bet against Ohtani’s health and the pragmatic challenges it raises. Ohtani has a tear in his right UCL. We do not know the severity. What we do know is that it could necessitate Tommy John surgery, and if that is the ultimate outcome, the sooner Ohtani undergoes it, the better. Delaying until the end of September not only could prevent him from hitting to start the 2024 season but keep him from pitching until after Opening Day in 2025. Maybe Ohtani’s desire to hit 50 home runs or make a run at the Triple Crown will keep him going until the end, in which case Olson’s road is rough. But he’s going to play every day, and until we know the same of Ohtani, we’ll go with the sure(r) thing. — Passan
Who will be the wild-card teams in the NL?
Philadelphia Phillies: 17
Chicago Cubs: 16
San Francisco Giants: 8
Arizona Diamondbacks: 6
Cincinnati Reds: 2
Miami Marlins: 1
San Diego Padres: 1
The Phillies and Cubs were our most-picked teams. Why do they look like wild-card locks? In the Phillies’ case, it’s simple: They are loaded with accomplished veterans, and with Trea Turner and Bryce Harper heating up, they could be the biggest threat to the Braves’ NL preeminence. The Cubs seem to have two very solid traits — they generally catch the ball well, ranking in the top 10 in just about every advanced defensive metric, and they pitch effectively. And it’s always worth remembering that the wild-card races are never a battle of the best teams. The Cubs are a good team being chased by some slightly above average teams. They are hungry and won’t lose their edge. — Olney
Our voters were split between Arizona and San Francisco for the final spot, and you have both making it. What’s your reasoning? Just a hunch that the Giants and Diamondbacks will play a bit better than the Cubs in September. The Cubs will host these teams soon, and those series will be critical. It seems unlikely Marcus Stroman will be a factor. In addition, the Cubs have to close on the road with the Braves and Brewers. That may be a problem. — Karabell
How do you think the Reds secure a wild-card berth? The Reds play pressure baseball and they do so with sheer athleticism and spry youth. They remind me of the way the Guardians played during their playoff push in 2022 — with a certain innocence in being the youngest team and a mix of veteran confidence. In 2023, the numbers show that the Reds love to run: They’re first in MLB in stolen base attempts per game. Even when they get caught, they still force teams to be on their toes constantly. Pitchers, catchers, infielders and outfielders, beware! Even the opposing team’s designated hitter is stressed out watching these guys constantly run. (This is also a skill that could help knock off the Brewers, who give up hardly any baserunners.)
Add to the mix that Hunter Greene is back, and before he went down, he was quietly starting to figure it out. In his last four starts before being placed on the IL in June, he allowed 13 hits and struck out 31 batters in 23⅓ innings for a 2.37 ERA. Love this team’s talent. So fun to watch. — Doug Glanville
Will the Orioles or Rays win the AL East?
Baltimore Orioles: 14
Tampa Bay Rays: 3
Why are the Orioles the favorite to win the division? The Rays are charging, and the team they are pursuing, Baltimore, lost dominant closer Felix Bautista, which is why the Orioles are going to hold on and win the AL East. They are young, hungry and well built, with the truest of grit. There’s no other explanation for how they can be where they are only two years after finishing 39 games out of fourth place. The Orioles are different. They don’t give a damn and were kicked around for so long that now, they just defy the odds. They will clinch the East at Oriole Park on the final day of the season against Boston. Gunnar Henderson will provide the walk-off. — Tim Kurkjian
Yet, you picked the Rays. What makes you think they can do it? It’s probably not cool to predict that anything negative might happen to the Orioles this season. They’re baseball’s darlings, but they’re going to find the final month of the season to be a grim slog to a wild-card spot. This is all new to the O’s, and the Rays have a stick-to-the-plan consistency that will win out in the end. It’s almost cultish how the Rays can ignore everything outside their own room and assemble a roster that conforms to the plan. Baltimore is putting together its own identity, one that should win multiple AL East titles, but that run starts next year. — Keown
Who will finish at the bottom of the NL East: the Mets or Nationals?
New York Mets: 12
Washington Nationals: 5
What makes you think Washington will fall back into the cellar? The Nats and Mets are in a virtual tie right now for last place in the NL East and I think the Nats will end up with that title. In short, Washington’s team right now is one of the worst in baseball — second worst, in fact, according to FanGraphs. When they’re starting in almost the same place, I’ll bet on the more talented Mets playing a bit better. — McDaniel
Who will win the AL West: the Astros, Rangers or Mariners?
Houston Astros: 10
Seattle Mariners: 4
Texas Rangers: 3
The Mariners currently sit atop the division, but you and our voters still think the Astros will take the title. How come? We sports journalists have short memories, but they aren’t that short. The Astros have been in the ALCS six straight seasons, which is a truly remarkable accomplishment. Obviously that streak will end eventually, perhaps even a few weeks from now. But at this point, it would be foolish to pick against them unless they have obviously deteriorated into a lesser team. Perhaps there were some early signs of fraying this season, but now Houston seems positioned just right and is even getting healthier the closer we get to October. The Astros have to give us a reason to pick against them — massive injuries, obvious widespread aging-out of core players, a division foe who has gotten too far ahead of them. None of those things are true right now. — Doolittle
Yet, you stuck with Seattle. Why? Because I’m a completely biased Seattle native who grew up going to games in the Kingdome? Or because they’ve been the hottest team in the AL? You choose! Technically, I’m predicting the Mariners, Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays all enter the final day of the season with the same record. I’m going with a Seattle win over Texas at home while the Astros and Blue Jays also win, eliminating the Rangers. Since Seattle has already clinched the season series over Houston, that gives the Mariners the AL West title. — Schoenfield
Before struggling in August, Texas spent most of the season leading the division. What makes you think they can still win it? The Rangers finished August with 10 losses in 13 games, but their inconsistencies actually date back even further than that. They went 40-38 from the start of June to the end of August, nowhere near as dominant as they were in April and May. Still, they still had a plus-42 run differential. And I still think they’re slightly more talented than the Astros and Mariners, the latter of which was a .500 team through its first 100 games. The Rangers’ lineup is deep and will be even deeper when Josh Jung returns. Their rotation is really good and will be even better when Nathan Eovaldi rejoins it. Their bullpen, well, it’s a problem. But nobody in the AL is perfect. The Rangers are the least imperfect. I have them winning the pennant. — Gonzalez
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
In the American League …
Aaron Boone will be fired before the playoffs start. — Matt Marrone
The Mariners, Rangers, Astros and Blue Jays all enter the final day of the season with the same record — four teams for three spots. Seattle beats Texas and the Astros and Blue Jays both win, so the Rangers miss the playoffs (Mariners win the division since they won the season series over the Astros). — Schoenfield
The Rays lose their first playoff series after winning the AL East. — McDaniel
In the National League …
San Diego will finish with a winning record. — Hembekides
I’ll do you one better. The Padres will make the playoffs. — Gonzalez
The Phillies will be the wild-card entrant with the best chance to win the World Series. — Olney
The Reds and Marlins enter the final series of the season tied for the last wild-card spot in the NL. Miami sweeps the Pittsburgh Pirates while Cincinnati only wins two of three against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Marlins make the playoffs in a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003. — Liz Finny
There will be a three-way tie between the Giants, Reds and Diamondbacks for the final wild-card spot in the NL. — Kurkjian
As for individual players …
Freddie Freeman wins the batting title in the NL. — Karabell
Not only will Freeman win the NL batting title, he’ll also break Joe Medwick’s NL doubles record (64). — Doolittle
Actually, Freeman is going to win the triple slash crown, leading in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. — Cockcroft
Edwin Diaz returns — and he runs onto the field while playing a trumpet! — Glanville
Pete Alonso will hit 50 home runs. — Rogers
Justin Steele will continue his unlikely journey from obscurity (0-6 with 5.59 ERA in Double-A in 2019) to stardom by leading the Cubs to a wild-card spot. — Keown
Oakland Athletics center fielder Esteury Ruiz will catch Acuna in stolen bases. — Yates
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Sports
2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?
Published
9 hours agoon
July 13, 2025By
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The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
Sports
Royals P Lorenzen (illness) scratched from start
Published
10 hours agoon
July 12, 2025By
admin
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Field Level Media
Jul 12, 2025, 02:39 PM ET
Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Lorenzen was scratched from Saturday’s start due to an illness.
Left-hander Angel Zerpa replaced Lorenzen for the game against the visiting New York Mets.
Lorenzen, 33, is 5-8 with a 4.61 ERA through 18 starts this season.
Zerpa, 25, is 3-1 with a 3.89 ERA in 40 appearances out of the bullpen this season. His last start was in August 2023.
Sports
Red Sox P Dobbins (ACL) out remainder of season
Published
10 hours agoon
July 12, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Jul 12, 2025, 01:05 PM ET
BOSTON — Red Sox right-hander Hunter Dobbins said on Saturday that he knew his season was probably over when he felt a familiar sensation in his knee.
He was right. Dobbins was diagnosed with a torn anterior cruciate ligament, his second ACL tear in his right knee.
“Yeah. I’ve torn my ACL in this knee before, and it was the same feeling,” he said, standing in the middle of Boston’s clubhouse with a red sleeve on his right leg. “Kind of some denial went into it, tried to go through that warmup pitch, felt the same sensation again, so, at that point, I knew what it was.”
Dobbins tore the same ACL playing high school football.
Covering first base in the second inning of Boston’s 5-4 walk-off win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night, 25-year-old Dobbins stepped awkwardly and limped after recording an out by making a catch on a throw from first baseman Abraham Toro.
Dobbins took one warmup toss before manager Alex Cora stopped him from attempting any more.
“Tough,” Cora said before the Red Sox faced the Rays. “He put himself on the map, right, did a good job for us. When it happened, I thought something minor. Talking to him, he felt it right away. He’s been through that before.”
Dobbins said he found out about Boston’s dramatic win while being examined.
“I was actually in the MRI machine and they were giving me score updates in between each one,” he said. “Right after the last one they said, ‘I think you’d like to hear this, you just won by a walk-off.’ That was pretty cool to hear the guys picked me up.”
The Red Sox placed him on the 15-day injured list Saturday and recalled right-hander Richard Fitts.
“In my head I have Opening Day next year kind of circled,” Dobbins said. “Whether or not that’s realistic, I don’t know, but that’s my goal.”
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