It feels like we know less about the college football landscape now than we did a month ago. Virginia is ranked, and Clemson very much isn’t. Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Texas A&M are unbeaten and ranked in the AP top six, and Texas, Alabama, Georgia and LSU are not. If you knew nothing about college football history and dove into this crazy world only this season, you would believe that Indiana, Texas Tech and Vanderbilt are three of the most elite programs in the country.

It’s into this murky world that we wade for Week 6. Last week boasted serious headliners that clarified the Big Ten’s hierarchy (Oregon over Penn State) and very much blurred the SEC’s (Bama over Georgia, Ole Miss over LSU). Week 6 doesn’t feature the same marquee matchups, but we still get Miami-Florida State, plus many games that are far bigger and better than we expected — Bama against unbeaten Vandy, Virginia against unbeaten Louisville, Texas Tech against unbeaten Houston, and Iowa State against a scorching Cincinnati.

Welcome to October. It’s hard to see where this season is taking us, but that makes the journey awfully fun. Here’s everything you need to follow in a surprising, mysterious Week 6.

All times Eastern.

Revenge time in Tuscaloosa?

No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Part of succeeding a legend is that we notice anytime you don’t live up to the legend’s standards. Granted, Kalen DeBoer has proven adept at continuing Nick Saban’s relative success against Kirby Smart’s Georgia, but DeBoer’s track record otherwise has some holes. He has already lost four games to unranked teams, as many as Saban lost in 17 years. Not great.

Saban was particularly good at putting upstarts in their place — think of Michigan State and Washington in the College Football Playoff. Or Missouri in the SEC championship game. Or Mississippi State every time the Bulldogs thought they were good. He was also good at revenge. His Crimson Tide bopped Tim Tebow’s Florida in 2009 and beat LSU by three TDs when they got a second shot at the Tigers in the 2011 BCS Championship Game. They lost to Auburn four times but won the following year by an average of 25 points.

You might remember what happened the last time Alabama played Vanderbilt.

play

Vanderbilt fans storm field after historic win over Alabama

Vanderbilt hangs on for its first-ever win over a No. 1 ranked team in a thrilling 40-35 victory over Alabama.

Vandy has to go to Tuscaloosa this time, which sets up a revenge opportunity. But the Commodores are much better this time. They’re 11th in SP+, and they’re scoring 49 points per game. Diego Pavia is third nationally in Total QBR (and maybe the second-best power conference quarterback to date), completing 75% of his passes and averaging nearly 7 yards per non-sack carry. Backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young are averaging 6.9 yards per carry, tight end Eli Stowers is catching everything and receiver Junior Sherrill has scored on five of his 17 receptions.

The Commodores are combining ruthless efficiency with above-average explosiveness.

Because Vandy has so thoroughly taken care of business through five games, Pavia hasn’t had to do as much — he had taken contact 108 times through five games last year (and battled wear-and-tear issues later in the season), but he’s at only 65 hits this year. If he needs to run more in the bigger games, he can probably handle it.

The Commodores’ defense isn’t amazing, but it’s also better than it was last season. Vandy plays decent run defense with great big-play prevention against the pass; safety CJ Heard is excellent, and linebackers Bryan Longwell and Khordae Sydnor swarm well.

Alabama remains an unfinished picture. The Crimson Tide’s defense looked downright unprepared in Week 1 against Florida State, but it has allowed only 11.7 points per game since. The Crimson Tide don’t create nearly enough negative plays, but they don’t give up big plays either, and safety Bray Hubbard keys a frustrating zone defense.

The offense has been the star of the show. Ty Simpson looked disheveled against Florida State, but he has been brilliant since, and the Tide are up to sixth in points per drive despite a below-average run game. They couldn’t quite close out Georgia after a brilliant first half, but Simpson is incredibly sharp, and the offensive line has shored up a lot of its Week 1 breakdowns.

After what happened in 2024, this game is symbolically huge. But it’s also just part of a huge stretch for both teams. Alabama just took down Georgia, but five of the Tide’s next six opponents rank 17th or better in SP+. At absolute worst, they’ll need to win four of six to keep their CFP hopes alive. Meanwhile, five of Vandy’s past seven opponents are also 17th or better. Without an obvious quality win yet, they’ll probably need to win five of seven. Now would be an apt time for Bama to throw its weight around and remind everyone who’s supposed to be the boss. But based solely on 2025 to date, the Commodores might yet be the Tide’s equal.

Current line: Bama -10.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.9

A high-stakes doubleheader in the ACC

Virginia’s upset of Florida State last week damaged the hype value of one ACC matchup but heightened another. FSU hosts unbeaten Miami on Saturday evening in desperate need of a turnaround win, but the winner of the afternoon’s Virginia-Louisville game — a matchup of the teams with the second- (Louisville) and fourth-best (Virginia) ACC title odds, per SP+ — will be positioned wonderfully, too.

No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State (7:30 p.m., ABC)

In some ways, you could say that Florida State was flying a little too high. The Seminoles had been nearly perfect in 2025, manhandling Alabama and humiliating two buy-game opponents (East Texas A&M and Kent State), and they were due a bad break or two. The defense hadn’t faced a tough and efficient run game like Virginia’s (including Alabama’s), and the offense had faced barely a down of adversity. Regression ran its course in Charlottesville last Friday night, when FSU lost an early fumble, gave up an acrobatic red zone interception and saw a juggling overtime touchdown catch go incomplete by millimeters. Stuff happens.

Even in the playoff era, though, a “stuff happens” loss can wipe out your margin for error. Thanks to early-season collapses from Clemson and Florida, Miami is the last SP+ top-40 opponent on FSU’s schedule, meaning this is likely the Seminoles’ last chance at another high-visibility win.

On paper, this one’s awfully even. Miami has its own solid, physical run game like Virginia’s, one with a bit better blocking but fewer yards after contact. The Hurricanes also have Carson Beck and a passing attack that rules third downs. It’s lacking explosiveness — Beck is averaging just 11.9 yards per completion — and therefore doesn’t generate loads of easy points. But it’s an efficient attack, and FSU’s defense has allowed a few more third-and-long conversions than is preferable.

With how well Notre Dame’s offense has played since, Miami’s Week 1 defensive performance against the Fighting Irish (24 points and 5.4 yards per play allowed) looks awfully impressive. But FSU’s offense has quite a bit to offer, even with the misfires against Virginia. The Seminoles rank first in points per drive and second in yards per play. Virginia hemmed in quarterback Tommy Castellanos and forced him to throw instead of making plays on the perimeter — it’s the key to keeping a lid on a Castellanos attack — but FSU still scored 35 points in regulation and averaged 6.4 yards per play. The ceiling is high even if teams defend the Noles correctly. Gavin Sawchuk and Ousmane Kromah average a combined 5.8 yards per carry with a 59% success rate, and Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy have combined for 24 catches and 514 yards. And this is still one of the best Net YAC teams in the country.

Considering Miami took down Florida in part due to physical running, whoever generates more success in this regard could have a huge advantage.

With tackle Rueben Bain Jr. at full force and getting help from disruptors such as linebacker Mohamed Toure and nickel back Keionte Scott, Miami’s defense might be even better than Bama’s. It will land some shots, but if FSU can hold Beck and the Canes to 24 or fewer points, you have to like the Seminoles’ chances.

Current line: Miami -4.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.1 | FPI projection: Miami by 3.9

No. 24 Virginia at Louisville (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)

What’s Virginia’s reward for winning a big game against an explosive Florida State offense? A big game against an explosive Louisville offense! Granted, Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss is more of an efficiency player, but wideout Chris Bell has big-play potential, and if or when the Louisville running back corps is healthy, look out. Isaac Brown and Duke Watson have battled injury, and they’ve combined for only 56 carries this year, but Brown is averaging 8.1 yards per carry (6.1 after contact!), and Watson averaged 8.9 in 2024.

Brown and Watson should be as close to full speed Saturday as they’ve been all year, and that’s good because Louisville has played against two SP+ top-50 defenses and averaged just 4.8 yards per play against them. The defense has improved a bit after slippage in recent years, thanks mostly to a pass rush led by star transfers Clev Lubin and Wesley Bailey, but for the Cardinals to live up to growing expectations, the run game will need to shift into gear.

Virginia, meanwhile, has already exceeded expectations. Obliterated them. Blown them to smithereens.

The transfer portal provides miracles for some teams each year and disaster for others, and it smiled on the Cavaliers with the potent additions of quarterback Chandler Morris, running back J’Mari Taylor, receivers Cam Ross and Jahmal Edrine and about 10 new rotation defenders, including star edge rushers Mitchell Melton and Daniel Rickert and nickel back Ja’son Prevard. The defense allows too many big plays and has allowed touchdowns on 80% of opponents’ red zone trips (125th nationally), and that was costly in a Week 2 loss to NC State. But the Hoos rule third downs on offense and defense, and that will take you pretty far. UVA has won more than eight games in a season just once in 17 years, but SP+ says there’s a 57% chance of at least a 9-3 finish. What a world.

Current line: Louisville -6.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 9.2 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.4

This week in the Big 12

Five weeks into the 2024 season, we thought we had a decent read on the Big 12. BYU and Iowa State were still unbeaten, and Kansas State and Utah were 4-1 and looking good. Per SP+, those four teams had about a two-in-three chance of winning the conference. Arizona was 3-1 and hoping to make a run. 3-2 Oklahoma State and 3-1 Arizona State had equal long shot odds.

But the conference had all sorts of surprises in store. Utah lost seven games in a row, and Kansas State lost three of four down the stretch. Arizona and OSU went a combined 1-14 the rest of the way, while Arizona State transformed into a top-10 caliber team in November and won the conference title.

We probably don’t know anything about this conference race yet, in other words, no matter how much it feels like we do. Texas Tech has looked spectacular in its first four games, and Iowa State, BYU, Utah and Arizona State are all positioned pretty well. But Week 6 sends the top two favorites on the road against upstarts and offers a few teams with early losses a chance to get right and stay in the race. We have some plot-twist opportunities for a conference that loves nothing more than delivering them.

No. 11 Texas Tech at Houston (7 p.m., ESPN)

Texas Tech has been genuinely awesome this season, walloping three bad teams as an elite team should and then physically manhandling Utah in Salt Lake City two weeks ago. They’ve been awesome at pretty much everything — they’re fifth in yards per play on offense and defense — and aside from a predilection for penalties and some injury-prone tendencies for quarterback Behren Morton, we don’t really know their weaknesses yet.

Houston’s a little bit easier to figure out. Defense: good. Offense: not so much. The Cougars are ninth in yards per play allowed and are very much in the best quadrant of this chart.

Willie Fritz lost defensive coordinator Shiel Wood to Tech, but the UH defense has been even better with replacement Austin Armstrong. But the Conner Weigman-led offense remains a work in progress. The Coogs go three-and-out nearly 39% of the time (124th), and that will probably be their downfall in this one. But if the defense sets up some easy scoring opportunities, this one quickly moves into “upset watch” territory.

Current line: Tech -10.5 (down from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Tech by 13.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0

No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati (noon, ESPN2)

If you combined Cincinnati’s offense with Houston’s defense, you’d have a potential top-10 team. Last Saturday’s 37-34 win at Kansas inserted the Bearcats into the Big 12 title conversation. We’ll see if the Bearcats have the defensive chops to remain a factor — their run defense is strong thanks in part to star tackle Dontay Corleone (who’s as questionable this week), but they’re 136th, last nationally, in completion rate allowed. But quarterback Brendan Sorsby is on a roll, and Cincy ranks first nationally in rushing success rate. Track meets could work out well for the Bearcats.

Iowa State is not a track meet team. The Cyclones have allowed more than 16 points just once in five games, but they’ve also topped 24 only twice. ISU runs a lot on first down but doesn’t get very far, so quarterback Rocco Becht has to convert a lot of third downs. He usually pulls it off, though, either with deep shots to Brett Eskildsen and Chase Sowell or passes to any of four tight ends.

The ISU defense is strong once again. The Cyclones rarely invade the backfield, but Domonique Orange occupies space up front (he’s listed as probable this week), and they tackle well, prevent big plays and pounce on mistakes. Sorsby hasn’t made many mistakes lately, though.

Current line: Cincy -1.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 3.2 | FPI projection: ISU by 0.3

Kansas State at Baylor (noon, ESPN+)

Kansas State suffered a three-week funk after losing to Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, but quarterback Avery Johnson just enjoyed, by far, his best game of the season, and RB Dylan Edwards is finally healthy. The Wildcats still have only one conference loss, but their next four games — at Baylor, TCU, at Kansas, Texas Tech — will require a sustained A-game. Sawyer Robertson and the prolific Bears also have one conference loss and could easily stay in the conversation with a strong performance.

Current line: Baylor -6.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.4 | FPI projection: Baylor by 2.6

Kansas at UCF (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)

UCF makes a lot of big plays but can’t keep a quarterback healthy and missed a solid upset opportunity with a poor performance at Kansas State last week. With last week’s defeat to Cincinnati, meanwhile, Kansas has dropped eight of its past nine one-score finishes since late 2023. Iowa State weathered a similar streak recently before flipping that script, and if KU does the same, it’s not too late to get into the race. It’s now or never, though.

Current line: Kansas -4.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 1.2 | FPI projection: Kansas by 1.5

A CFP eliminator of sorts

Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC)

Last week was great and terrible for Notre Dame. On one hand, the Fighting Irish looked spectacular in making Arkansas quit in a 56-13 road blowout. The offense is improving rapidly, and CJ Carr is quickly becoming one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. Meanwhile, despite injuries to star corner Leonard Moore and tackle Donovan Hinish, among others, the defense finally showed some life after a poor start to 2025. Notre Dame is the projected favorite in every remaining game.

On the other hand, the Irish’s potential CFP résumé, should they win out and get to 10-2, took a hit. USC’s loss to Illinois hurt their potential for a top-10 win, and four other upcoming opponents all lost. It will be difficult for the Irish to stand out in a pile of two-loss teams, even if they deliver blowouts.

The blowouts must continue regardless. And we’ll see how that goes against a Boise State team that has shifted nicely into gear. The running back trio of Sire Gaines, Dylan Riley and Malik Sherrod combined for 190 yards from scrimmage last week against Appalachian State, while Maddux Madsen threw for 321 yards and four touchdowns. The pass rush, led by Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Braxton Fely, delivered five sacks. The Mountain West has a growing number of potential contenders this season — UNLV, Fresno State, perhaps New Mexico or San Diego State — but the Broncos still lead the pack.

Under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame has been either ridiculously rude or ridiculously accommodating to aspirational Group of 5 opponents. The Irish fell 26-21 to Marshall in 2022 and, famously, 16-14 to Northern Illinois last year, but they also pummeled excellent Army and Navy teams last fall. Boise State has looked like Boise State since the demoralizing Week 1 dud against South Florida, and an upset here would push the Broncos back to the top of the pile in the Group of 5. Both of these teams have big-play capabilities, plus defenses that have been a little too willing to give up a chunk play or two. Let’s see if BSU can keep up with an increasingly ruthless Notre Dame attack.

Current line: Irish -20.5 (up from -17.5) | SP+ projection: Irish by 13.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 18.8

Week 6 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Houston’s overtime win over Oregon State cost us a fourth win in five tries — how could you do that to us, Coogs? — but 3-for-5 is still pretty good.

Going 4-for-6 is even better, though. SP+ tells us there’s only a 55% chance that Nebraska (81% win probability against Michigan State), Illinois (85% over Purdue), Michigan (88% over Wisconsin) and Ohio State (90% over Minnesota) all win. It’s time to take down a Big Ten favorite.

Week 6 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

West Virginia at No. 23 BYU (10:30 p.m., ESPN). I’m sticking this one in the Playlist instead of the Big 12 section above because of the larger point spread. BYU overcame a poor performance to remain unbeaten against Colorado, and the Cougars could probably withstand another iffy game this weekend. But it feels like a race to get quarterback Bear Bachmeier — 48th in Total QBR, 51st in yards per dropback — ready for an epic run of high-stakes Big 12 games on the horizon.

Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 22.4 | FPI projection: BYU by 23.5

New Mexico at San José State (10 p.m., FS1). I’m not sure anyone in college football is having more fun than New Mexico.

You Know The Vibes™️#GoLobos pic.twitter.com/Ix1Nx8lPxZ

— New Mexico Football (@UNMLoboFB) September 27, 2025

The Lobos frustrated Michigan, stomped UCLA and beat rival New Mexico State for the Chile Roaster trophy. Now, with trips to San José and Boise in the next two weeks, we find out if this is a fun bowl push or a fun Mountain West title push.

Current line: SJSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNM by 1.0 | FPI projection: UNM by 0.9

Early Saturday

Clemson at North Carolina (noon, ESPN). One of the most noteworthy ACC games in the preseason — Dabo Swinney’s top-five Clemson versus Bill Belichick’s North Carolina! — still packs intrigue, but it’s mostly negative. Clemson has lost to all three of its power-conference opponents, and UNC has lost to two by a combined 82-23. Clemson likely has too much talent for the Heels, but, well, that hasn’t stopped the Tigers from playing like they have thus far.

Current line: Clemson -14.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 7.7 | FPI projection: Clemson by 8.3

No. 22 Illinois at Purdue (noon, BTN). Illinois responded well to its humiliation at Indiana two weeks ago, beating USC in a nailbiter in Champaign. Now comes a different kind of test. Purdue has a spry passing game and an aggressive (if spectacularly dysfunctional) defense, and if the Illini are caught looking ahead to next week’s Ohio State game, the Boilermakers could land some punches.

Current line: Illinois -9.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 16.7 | FPI projection: Illinois by 7.0

Kentucky at No. 12 Georgia (noon, ABC). Kentucky nearly beat Georgia last season before the wheels totally fell off in Lexington, but four games into 2025, the Wildcats still haven’t put the wheels back on. This is a get-right opportunity for Kirby Smart’s surprisingly mediocre (by their standards) Dawgs before Ole Miss visits in two weeks.

Current line: UGA -20.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 17.4 | FPI projection: UGA by 17.0

Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan (noon, Fox). Michigan is a week away from a huge trip to USC, but the Wolverines must first handle a Wisconsin team that has just continued to fall into further depths. Badgers quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. should finally be near full strength, which can’t hurt, but they have just been lifeless this year.

Current line: Michigan -17.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 18.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 15.8

Air Force at Navy (noon, CBS). Air Force might have found its next awesome option quarterback in sophomore Liam Szarka. Unfortunately, the Falcons’ defense has allowed at least 44 points against all three of its FBS opponents. Will that matter or will this become the typical battle of attrition that service-academy rivalry games frequently become?

Current line: Navy -12.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 18.7 | FPI projection: Navy by 13.2

Saturday afternoon

No. 9 Texas at Florida (3:30 p.m., ESPN). I wouldn’t have guessed this one would be relegated to the Playlist, but here we are. Florida’s defense is excellent and could absolutely frustrate Arch Manning & Co., but the Gators have scored 33 points in three games against FBS opponents, and Texas has the best defense in the country, per SP+. It’s hard to think of anything else mattering beyond that.

Current line: Texas -6.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 9.9 | FPI projection: Texas by 7.8

Washington at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). On Christmas Day in 1982, Washington’s Tim Cowan outdueled Maryland’s Boomer Esiason, throwing for 369 yards and three touchdowns — including the game winner with six seconds left — as the Huskies won a 21-20 Aloha Bowl thriller. I just listed the entire football history between these two new conference mates.

Current line: UW -6.5 | SP+ projection: Maryland by 1.6 | FPI projection: UW by 0.5

Michigan State at Nebraska (4 p.m., FS1). Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola have made nice strides this season, but only Raiola is getting help from his defense. Can Chiles, receiver Omari Kelly and the Spartans’ offense suck the Huskers into a track meet or is the NU pass defense — first nationally in yards per dropback — too much?

Current line: Nebraska -11.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.7 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 13.1

No. 7 Penn State at UCLA (3:30 p.m., CBS). Penn State should get back on track after last week’s frustrating loss to Oregon, but I’m highlighting this game primarily to point out that, per SP+, UCLA is a projected underdog of at least 16 points in every remaining game and has a 61% chance of finishing 0-12. It was easy to see this season perhaps not going well, but wow.

Current line: PSU -25.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 32.5 | FPI projection: PSU by 20.2

Kent State at No. 5 Oklahoma (4 p.m., SECN). OK, yes, OU will win by a lot. But with John Mateer out because of injury, we’ll get a look at how backup Michael Hawkins Jr. runs the Ben Arbuckle offense and what kind of chance the Sooners might have against Texas next week.

Current line: OU -45.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 48.0 | FPI projection: OU by 46.3

Saturday evening

Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., SECN). Texas A&M nearly suffered a “stuff happens” loss last week, dominating Auburn statistically but winning by only 6, but the Aggies remain unbeaten and are projected favorites in the next three games. This one’s interesting, though. A&M makes and allows big plays, while Mississippi State, having already played in two down-to-the-wire finishes with more to come, makes and allows few.

Current line: A&M -14.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 4.9 | FPI projection: A&M by 9.0

Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., NBC). Ohio State faced one of the best offensive teams in the country (to date) last week at Washington and brushed the Huskies aside with relative ease. Now, the Buckeyes face one of the most reliably solid defenses in the country. Minnesota tackles well and generates loads of negative plays, which will provide Julian Sayin & Co. with a different type of test. I’m guessing they’ll ace this one too.

Current line: OSU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 20.7 | FPI projection: OSU by 23.1

Colorado at TCU (7:30 p.m., Fox). As with BYU, TCU is a Big 12 contender facing a theoretically easier challenge this year. Granted, all three of Colorado’s losses were by one score, and the Buffaloes could score an upset or two down the stretch (especially with more stable QB play). But TCU should control the line of scrimmage in this one and move to 4-1.

Current line: TCU -13.5 (down from -15.5) | SP+ projection: TCU by 12.4 | FPI projection: TCU by 9.0

UNLV at Wyoming (7 p.m., CBSSN). UNLV is unbeaten and has scored at least 30 points in every game; the Rebels’ defense, however, is dreadful, especially against the run. Wyoming backs Samuel Harris and Sam Scott are both strong yards-after-contact players, and the Cowboys might have a shot at making this one awkward for an ambitious conference rival.

Current line: UNLV -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 4.9 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.6

Late Saturday

Duke at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Washington-Maryland feels like the most geographically ridiculous conference game of the week, but this one isn’t much better. It’s a pretty big one, though, with the teams a combined 3-0 in ACC play. Duke’s offense (31st in points per drive) facing Cal’s defense (29th) could be appointment viewing. Cal’s offense (86th) against Duke’s defense (99th), not so much.

Current line: Duke -2.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 6.1 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.9

Nevada at Fresno State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Since a poor Week 0 performance against Kansas, Fresno State is unbeaten. Plus, the Bulldogs are projected underdogs in only one remaining game, meaning they’re Mountain West contenders until proven otherwise. Nevada doesn’t have much to offer, but the Wolf Pack have a randomly explosive run game with backs Herschel Turner and Caleb Ramseur.

Current line: Fresno -13.5 | SP+ projection: Fresno by 18.9 | FPI projection: Fresno by 14.7

Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

FCS: Yale at No. 8 Lehigh (noon, ESPN+). We’re looking at a ferocious Ivy League race among Harvard (fourth in FCS SP+), Yale (10th) and Dartmouth (18th) — one that has FCS playoff implications because the Ivy is sending a team now. But first, Yale gets a huge nonconference showdown with a Lehigh team that has won 11 of its past 12 games thanks, in part, to backs Luke Yoder and Jaden Green (combined: 207.2 rushing yards per game) and a ferocious and diverse pass rush.

SP+ projection: Lehigh by 1.8.

Division III: No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 10 Wisconsin-Whitewater (2 p.m., local streaming). It’s the first weekend of one of college football’s most exciting conference races: the WIAC, which has four of the top 11 teams in Division III, based on SP+. Two of them meet Saturday. Whitewater has dominated this series through most of the 2000s, but La Crosse, led by prolific quarterback Kyle Haas, has won the past two games.

SP+ projection: UWW by 6.4.

Division II: No. 9 UT Permian Basin at No. 5 Angelo State (7 p.m., FloCollege). Angelo State is unbeaten and averaging 39 points per game this season behind backs Cameron Dischler and Jayden Jones and a relentless, deep run game. UTPB? Also unbeaten and averaging 38.8 points per game thanks to quarterback Kanon Gibson and a prolific passing game. Track meet: likely.

SP+ projection: Angelo State by 7.6.

North Carolina coach Bill Belichick is turning to senior quarterback Max Johnson to start Saturday’s game against Clemson, a source told ESPN.

Gio Lopez, who opened the season as the starter, is a game-time decision because of a lower-body injury, but if he is available, he will serve as Johnson’s backup, the source said.

Johnson replaced the injured Lopez two weeks ago during a 34-9 loss to UCF. He also played during the season-opening blowout loss to TCU and has gone 20-for-30 for 170 yards with two touchdowns.

Those two games were his first action since suffering a catastrophic leg injury suffered in the 2024 opener at Minnesota.

Lopez has completed 42 of 67 passes for 430 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions for the 2-2 Tar Heels.

The 2025 MLB playoffs are rolling along!

After the wild-card round ended with a trio of Game 3s, the division series matchups are set with all four Game 1s starting Saturday.

Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Is this the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally get to the Fall Classic? Will the Philadelphia Phillies make another deep run after a strong regular season?

MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all — or go home early — and a name to watch for on all 12 World Series hopefuls.

Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.

Series outlooks | Schedule | Bracket | ESPN BET

Jump to a team:
TOR | SEA | NYY | DET
MIL | PHI | LAD | CHC

American League

No. 1 seed | 94-68 | AL East champs

ALDS opponent: Yankees (47.4% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.0% | ESPN BET Odds: +750

Team temperature: 91°

Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out, and they field as cleanly as any team in the postseason field. Toronto has scuffled lately, yes, and the culprit is a punchless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the game’s best units in runs scored as well as wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to mash their way past teams. They’ll need good pitching, and while there isn’t a clear ace or lockdown bullpen piece, they have droves of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence isn’t accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is quite the excellent predictor of success. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At age 35, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach by focusing more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate stable anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, hitting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and winning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season centered around putting the ball in play and not striking out while still featuring some power. But that pop vanished down the stretch before turning it on the final weekend. Their struggles correspond with Bo Bichette going on the injured list with a sprained knee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who hasn’t been cleared to begin running. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will hold a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July and August, pretty good in the other months, and on the whole, has allowed way too many home runs and absorbed way too many blown saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will rest largely on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Three true outcomes baseball got you down? Tune in to some Blue Jays baseball to fulfill all of your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play in 81.7% of its plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an AL team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — Doolittle

No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs

ALDS opponent: Tigers (51.6% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +550

Team temperature: 88°

Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is replete with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven shutout frames. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they’ve got the Big Dumper. Regardless of his might this year, Cal Raleigh himself can’t carry an entire team, which is why it’s nice to have Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup, too. And as long as Bryan Woo remains healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo might be the best in the postseason. Finish off with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Munoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodriguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the more obvious choice, but after his historic power season, it’s possible teams will pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the final two-plus months and bats after Raleigh in the lineup. Throw in some spectacular center-field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since … well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … Woo’s injury is a real issue. The All-Star, who exited his start on Sept. 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and he’s responded well from treatment, but Woo will go into the postseason without having pitched in a game in over two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA over 30 starts. He is critical to their World Series chances. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers. And in 2025, he cemented that by making his first All-Star team, the high point of a regular season in which he won 15 games, posted a 2.94 ERA, compiled 186⅔ innings and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that didn’t find itself until recently. Woo exited his last start with pectoral tightness. The hope is he’ll be good to go for the playoffs. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Behold the historic firsts … or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run ticker rolls back to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he’ll still attract plenty of attention, that number zero looms large over the Mariners’ franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the ALCS, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland — possible obstacles this year as well. — Doolittle

No. 4 seed | 94-68 | AL wild card

Wild-card result: Defeated Red Sox in three games

Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (52.6% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +475

Team temperature: 115°

Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that’s not going to be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement it with a lineup of hitters who, even taking out Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would rank seventh in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around him. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have one of the game’s best starting pairs, and their relief pitching is showing good signs over the past week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting homers, they’ll be tough to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular-season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 over his past three postseasons across 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he’s certainly due for a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … relievers don’t perform to their track records. The names in New York’s bullpen pop: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. All four have been successful closers at the major league level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since adding Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half proved its floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their last road game of the regular season, collecting four hits, including the 10th-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will find himself in it often in October, whether he’s at first base or behind the plate. This lineup seems deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power.” — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Well, let’s face it, you root for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them around. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally goes off in October, it’s just good, solid baseball history that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — Doolittle

No. 6 seed | 87-75 | AL wild card

Wild-card result: Defeated Guardians in three games

ALDS opponent: Mariners (48.4% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 7.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +1200

Team temperature: 57°

Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the AL. Recent travails notwithstanding, this is a good baseball team, and even with a number of pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth — and in manager A.J. Hinch the acumen — to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball the past two seasons and one hell of an assignment for the Mariners if they have to face him twice in a five-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the slugging of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson shows up, find top-level form from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too long not knowing the feeling. –– Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the past 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels have won the award in the past 20 postseasons. So maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and the strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some big home runs. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t carry its weight. Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, recorded a 2.42 ERA in four September starts. And yet the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was still a bloated 4.84. That helps explain the team’s near-monumental collapse, though the offense and bullpen didn’t help matters. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, did not pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their ALDS roster. It marked his first season back from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never truly felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with help from a solid enough September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly blowing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters are going to have to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to prove he can. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the nosediving Tigers, who squeaked into the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only AL contender in a late-season free fall. Detroit’s .291 September winning percentage doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented reversal.. Only 10 eventual champs have sported a last-month winning percentage under .500. The worst was the .414 mark (12-17) of the 2006 Cardinals — who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — Doolittle

National League

No. 1 seed | 97-65 | NL Central champs

NLDS opponent: Cubs (56.2% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +750

Team temperature: 67°

Why they can win the World Series: They’ve been the best team in baseball over six months. In the modern game, that takes a blend of depth, player development and fidelity to an ethos that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, unstack it and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play — disciplined and smart and fully bought-in — is an enviable brand of baseball. They’re a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, sure. But really fun because they bully without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in today’s game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There’s always the chance that a consistently winning team never makes the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ over 111 (and two more over 100), the NL-best 164 steals, the glovework that’s among the best in MLB by every publicly available defensive metric — it makes sense. They’re the best for a reason. So why would that change? — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Brice Turang is no longer just a slick-fielding second baseman with speed. He has added power this season, especially in the second half — during which he’s slugged over .500. He hits righties and lefties, does a good job of not chasing out of the zone and can pound fastballs. Oh, and he hit .364 with runners in scoring position. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … their lack of power catches up with them. Runs are often scarce in October when teams maximize deploying their best pitchers. And while manufacturing them by any means necessary is the goal, hitting home runs is an indicator of October success. The only team to finish outside the top nine in home runs for a season and reach the World Series over the past five years was the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers, meanwhile, finished this season tied for 21st in home runs with Christian Yelich’s 29 leading the way. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: The hype that surrounded Jacob Misiorowski at midseason, prompting a surprising All-Star appearance despite fewer than 30 career major league innings, has since faded. In nine starts since then, his ERA is 5.45. He’s no longer good enough to crack the Brewers’ postseason rotation. Not yet, anyway. The team, though, is considering using him out of the bullpen, and that’s when things could get really interesting. Misiorowski captivated the nation because he possessed some of the sport’s most devastating stuff despite taking on the workload of a starting pitcher. Out of the bullpen, that triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would certainly play, especially in October. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: The Brewers are one of the three teams in this year’s field — along with the Mariners and Padres — hunting for their first title. But this was the best regular season in Milwaukee’s history, and for the first time since 1982, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with the best record in MLB. Intangibly, this is perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing team to watch, featuring flashy defenders, a number of high-volume base stealers and a lot of balls in play. In other words, the reasons to watch and root for the Brew Crew are many. It would be much harder to identify reasons you would not want to root for them. — Doolittle

No. 2 seed | 96-66 | NL East champs

NLDS opponent: Dodgers (49.8% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +475

Team temperature: 90°

Why they can win the World Series: Kyle Schwarber is made for October, and he will hold court, along with Bryce Harper, Cristopher Sanchez, Jhoan Duran and the rest of the cavalcade, in front of the most raucous crowd in baseball at Citizens Bank Park. Those are the featured players, but the Phillies’ run could hinge on their four starters’ capacity to go deep into games. The bullpen is top-heavy, and the top is good, but if they aren’t scared off by the third time through the order like so many others, the Phillies can ride their rotation far. Schwarber and Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances and are two of the best playoff performers of their generation. If the Phillies can hit some timely home runs — eight others on the roster reached double-digit homers — their case, already perhaps the most compelling in baseball, gets that much stronger. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: We have two logical choices here: Schwarber and Harper. Both have been outstanding in the playoffs. Schwarber has a .906 OPS and 21 home runs in 69 games, and Harper has a 1.016 OPS and 17 home runs in 53 games. Schwarber, of course, had a monster regular season. Let’s go with Harper, though. He knows how to lock in for October better than any other active hitter, and with time possibly running out on this aging Phillies team, it might be now or never for Harper to win a World Series. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … Trea Turner doesn’t quickly find his rhythm. Turner was placed on the injured list because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain Sept. 8. He was activated Friday and played in Sunday’s season finale. The Phillies’ offense hummed without Turner behind Schwarber’s continued dominance of opposing pitchers, but October is a different beast, and Turner is an elite talent who could change Philadelphia’s playoff fortunes. The shortstop won the NL batting title, led the league with 179 hits and stole 36 bases. A healthy Turner adds another dimension. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Jhoan Duran got a taste of postseason baseball with the Twins in 2023, but he has never experienced it quite like at “The Bank,” with his walkout song blaring through what is widely considered the loudest, most boisterous ballpark this time of year. The Phillies’ front office beat out a bevy of suitors for Duran at the trade deadline, and he has been everything the team could have imagined, locking down the back end of a leaky bullpen and looking very much like the final player of a title quest. Soon, the ninth inning will come, and “El Incomprendido” will play. Philly will be ready. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Tired of the bullpen parade? The Phillies are your team. Philadelphia far and away paced the majors in innings from starters. It wasn’t just volume either, as Philly logged baseball’s third-best rotation ERA (3.57). And it wasn’t because the Phillies preached pitch to contact: Philadelphia led all of baseball in strikeout rate from starting pitchers, and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Sure, the loss of Zack Wheeler is a bummer, but the Sanchez-led rotation remains the foundation of the Phillies and their greatest hopes to traverse the bullpen-heavy staffs of the rest of the bracket en route to the World Series. — Doolittle

No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL West champs

Wild-card result: Defeated Reds in two games

NLDS opponent: Phillies (50.2 chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +375

Team temperature: 113°

Why they can win the World Series: They did it last year and pretty much everyone who contributed to that team is back — plus a few more. This time, they’ve got to get through the wild-card series, which is no fun, but their starting pitching depth is truly daunting. No matter how they deploy Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, any permutation works. The bullpen is … a work in progress. But if you’re seeking a functional relief corps on the fly, there are worse places to start than with a group of 10 who have thrown out of the bullpen this month, seven at 95-plus (including Roki Sasaki), with Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw likewise at the ready. As for the hitters: Ohtani will win his second straight NL MVP, Mookie Betts is right again, Freddie Freeman in October is automatic and even if Will Smith is out, what the Dodgers manage better than anyone is depth, and despite the disappointment of the regular season, there exists this truth: If every team plays its best, the Dodgers are better than all of them. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: How about Freeman in a repeat performance? Hey, Corey Seager won in 2020 and 2023 (for two different teams), although no player has won MVP in back-to-back World Series. Freeman has played 11 World Series games — and reached via a hit in all 11 with an OPS of 1.171. He never lets the moment get too big, and another big World Series would cement his status as one of the all-time great clutch postseason performers. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the bullpen sinks this behemoth. Six different Dodgers relievers finished September with an ERA north of 5.00. Their team bullpen ERA for the month that ranked 26th in baseball. Only three teams blew more saves. Tanner Scott‘s first season in Los Angeles was a colossal disappointment. Kirby Yates, their other major free agent bullpen addition, landed on the injured list again during the final week of the regular season. Brock Stewart, the only reliever acquired at the trade deadline, pitched in four games before going on the IL. As a result, the Dodgers will supplement the bullpen with starters; Kershaw, Sasaki and Sheehan all figure to play significant relief roles in October. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Baseball fans were delighted to see Ohtani grace the postseason stage last October, but that was only half of him. This year, Ohtani will be fully unlocked. He’ll pitch — in Game 1 of the division series against the Phillies — and he’ll hit, with few, if any, limitations. The Dodgers were very careful in how they handled Ohtani’s pitching return, all with the thought of making sure he was at his best going into October. That goal was accomplished. Ohtani has once again proven he can be as dominant on the mound as he is in the batter’s box. Now, he’ll show it when it really counts. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: You like dynasties? Another Dodgers title would further cement L.A.’s dominance over the rest of baseball. The Dodgers looked far more vulnerable than predicted during the season, and their struggles continued into the latter stages of the regular season. But Ohtani will unleash his two-way act in the playoffs for the first time, Betts has turned around his down season, and everyone wants to send Kershaw into retirement on a high note. Dynasties are dynasties because they win even when their plans haven’t unfolded exactly as they foresaw. — Doolittle

No. 4 seed | 92-70 | NL wild card

Wild-card result: Defeated Padres in three games

NLDS opponent: Brewers (43.8% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +800

Team temperature: 87°

Why they can win the World Series: They’re a magnificent defensive team, they’ve got Kyle Tucker back to charge an offense that has been a bottom-quarter run-scoring team in the second half, and Daniel Palencia has also returned with his velocity. Maybe their flashes of excellence when they were healthy get rekindled. The Cubs might not be as talented as the NL elite, but their lineup is filled with hitters willing to take walks and not striking out exorbitantly. That kind of approach — and home run hitting — win in October, and the Cubs have both. Keep the steady performances from Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller to lengthen the bullpen and hope for a mid-postseason return by Cade Horton, who would immediately make their chances that much better. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Ian Happ. Tucker has battled multiple injuries in the second half, including a calf injury that sidelined him most of September. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dropped off significantly in the second half. Seiya Suzuki has likewise slumped. Happ is the overlooked member of the Cubs’ lineup, but he’s a switch-hitter with power, he gets on base, controls his strikeouts reasonably well, has hit well in the second half and usually bats second or third, giving him plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the late injuries pushed them off track. The Cubs’ best every-day player (Tucker), top starting pitcher (Horton) and closer (Palencia) dealt with injuries down the stretch. Though Tucker (calf) and Palencia (shoulder) returned from the injured list during the regular season’s final week, Horton was pulled from his start last Tuesday because of back tightnesss and placed on the injured list Saturday because of a rib fracture, the team announced. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Here’s one thing we know about the Cubs going into these playoffs: they’re going to have to score runs, especially with Horton out for at least the first round. Kyle Tucker missed most of September and Pete Crow-Armstrong had the majors’ lowest OPS among qualified hitters after the start of August, which only heightens the pressure on someone like Michael Busch. There’s plenty of reason for hope. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately, but Busch, 27, has been at his best over these last couple weeks and led the team with 34 home runs this season. He’ll be at the top of the lineup against righties and his production will be critical. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: An eight-year title drought is small potatoes in Chicago, but 2016 is starting to feel like a long time ago. This version of the Cubs, led by first-title-seeker Craig Counsell, has a chance to carve out its place in the hearts of North Side fans with a deep run this October. When the Cubs have been at their best, they’ve featured an electric offense led by Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and current fan favorite (P-C-A! P-C-A!) Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Tucker headed for free agency, this might be the Cubs’ best shot at matching their 2016 heights with this group. — Doolittle