DURING THE SECOND game of the 2023 MLB season, on a cloudy 56-degree day at Fenway Park, the Baltimore Orioles were looking to start the campaign with their second straight win, after barely holding on for a teeth-clenching victory on Opening Day in which they nearly blew a 10-4 lead. The Orioles led 8-7 with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the ninth. Masataka Yoshida lofted a routine fly ball to left fielder Ryan McKenna, a can of corn in Little League, in high school and certainly in the major leagues.
When the Boston Red Sox won the next day, the early verdict was in: The Orioles were 1-2, had allowed 27 runs and, just as everyone had predicted, didn’t have nearly enough pitching and were destined to finish near the bottom of the tough American League East.
The Orioles have been so methodically consistent all season and now that they’ve clinched a playoff spot while on their way to 100 wins — a mark the franchise last achieved in 1980, by the way — it’s easy to forget that not much was expected from them in March. Though they were surprise winners of 83 games in 2022, the consensus was clear: That wasn’t going to happen again. ESPN forecasted 74 wins. FanGraphs projected 76. None of ESPN’s 28 voters picked the Orioles to win the division — or even to get in as a wild card.
Mea culpa.
The Orioles are leading the best division in baseball, though the Tampa Bay Rays are close on their heels. They’re not that far behind the Atlanta Braves for the best overall record. They are, most definitely, World Series contenders — and they’re going to be in this position for the foreseeable future thanks to general manager Mike Elias’ rebuild that has a chance to rival what Theo Epstein did with the Chicago Cubs and Jeff Luhnow — Elias’ mentor — did with the Houston Astros.
That muffed fly ball has long since been forgotten.
YOU CAN TRACE the Orioles’ turnaround to the first pick of the 2019 MLB draft. Under GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, the Orioles had made the playoffs three times from 2012 to 2016, but the fall from those years was rapid and painful: In 2018, the Orioles finished 47-115, becoming just the fifth team since 1900 to lose 115 games. Duquette and Showalter were let go and Elias came to Baltimore from Houston, where he had been the Astros’ scouting director and then assistant GM.
There is always some luck involved when trying to rebuild an organization and the Orioles had the good fortune of having their terrible season at the right time. Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman was the clear No. 1 talent in the 2019 draft class, one of the most accomplished hitters in NCAA history and a top defensive catcher to boot. The first pick in baseball isn’t always a sure superstar, but everything on Rutschman’s resume pointed to a sure thing.
The pandemic’s impact on minor league baseball delayed Rutschman’s arrival to the Orioles, but things immediately turned around after he was called up in May 2022. The Orioles were 16-24 when Rutschman debuted, then went 60-47 in games he started the rest of the way and 87-51 so far in 2023. They’re an incredible 114-69 when he starts at catcher. The oft-made comparison to Buster Posey is apt. Rutschman may not be a 30-homer slugger, just as Posey never was, but like Posey he gets on base, plays great defense and is that all-important stabilizing personality on the field and in the clubhouse. He may not have the highest WAR on the 2023 Orioles, but there’s no doubt he’s the heart of the team.
While Rutschman was the obvious No. 1 overall pick, the Orioles also hit a home run with the first pick of the second round: high school shortstop Gunnar Henderson. A late riser from Alabama, draft analysts had Henderson potentially going in the first round because of a broad base of skills, but he had faced weak high school competition and most scouts saw him ending up at third base.
Despite COVID wiping out his 2020 season, Henderson soared through the minors and reached Baltimore late last season at just 21 years old. He got off to a slow start, hitting .189 in April and .213 in May, but he has been one of the best hitters in the majors the past four months, slashing .286/.331/.551 with 20 home runs since the beginning of June. Henderson, who turned 22 in June, leads the team in WAR and his raw power is probably his best tool but like so many of the Orioles, he’s a baseball player, in the sense that he does everything well. Via Statcast’s baserunning value metric, Henderson is at plus-4 runs, tied for the major league lead with, among others, speedsters Corbin Carroll and Bobby Witt Jr.
Henderson’s baserunning is par for the course for the Orioles. Maybe it’s a cliché to say they don’t beat themselves or they do the little things well, but they don’t beat themselves and they do the little things well. They’re second behind only the Braves in baserunner advancement, taking the extra base — such as first to third on a single or second to home on double — 49% of the time (the Braves are at 50%). Only three teams have committed fewer errors, they’re top 10 in defensive runs saved and second in fewest stolen bases allowed. They’ve been terrific in one-run games, going 26-12 (and 10-6 in extra-inning games). They’re 10-3 against the Toronto Blue Jays and 8-5 against the Rays.
When you’ve hit rock bottom the way the Orioles did in 2018, you have to hit on draft picks like Rutschman and Henderson, otherwise you’ll need a rebuild to your rebuild — see Tigers, Detroit; or Royals, Kansas City. As Travis Sawchik detailed in theScore in March, the Orioles like to preach something called “growth mindset,” a term first coined by Stanford psychologist Carol Dweck that suggests skills can be learned and improved. During the COVID shutdown, Orioles staffers even met with minor leaguers on Zoom to discuss Dweck’s book. Rutschman and Henderson both bought into the concept.
Of course, the power of a positive mindset isn’t necessarily unique to the age of analytics, but there’s no doubting the Orioles’ player development success under Elias. Indeed, players such as Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle were all already in the organization when Elias took over; the first three had all reached the majors but had yet to do much. Those four have flourished in recent seasons and produced over 10.5 combined WAR so far in 2023, providing the lineup depth alongside the two young stars (Ryan O’Hearn, purchased from the Royals in January, has been a pleasant surprise and is now the team’s cleanup hitter against right-handed pitchers).
On the pitching side, rookie Grayson Rodriguez was the team’s first-round pick in 2018, the final draft of the Duquette regime. The top-rated pitching prospect in the majors heading into 2023, Rodriguez had a rough start and was eventually sent back to the minors, but he returned after the All-Star break and has a 2.55 ERA over his past nine starts. Bautista was also in the organization since the Orioles signed him in 2016 after the Miami Marlins released him. It took the All-Star closer a long time before he emerged last season, and he was having an even more dominant season in 2023 before recently landing on the injured list with a sore elbow (that could sideline him the rest of the season, putting a damper on Baltimore’s World Series aspirations).
Rebuilding teams also need to make good on minor transactions that usually lead nowhere. Kyle Bradish, the team’s best starter, came over from the Los Angeles Angels as a minor leaguer in 2019 in the Dylan Bundy trade. Rookie setup man (and now closer) Yennier Cano was essentially a throw-in as part of last year’s Jorge Lopez trade with the Minnesota Twins. Starter Tyler Wells, who pitched well early in the season, was a Rule 5 pick in 2020 (also from the Twins). The Orioles signed Aaron Hicks in May after the New York Yankees released him; he was hitting .188 but has flourished in Baltimore with a .296/.385/.475 slash line. Smart and lucky is a good combination.
AFTER THE ORIOLES improved from 52-110 in 2021 to 83-79 last season — the ninth-biggest year-to-year improvement in MLB history — Baltimore fans expected, or at least hoped, that Elias would address the rotation. The Orioles had ranked 23rd in the majors in ERA, 26th in strikeout rate and 25th in FanGraphs WAR — not exactly a playoff-caliber rotation. The big moves were anticlimactic: The team signed veteran innings eater Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10 million contract and acquired Cole Irvin from the A’s. Thus, the less-than-stellar projections.
There are three ways to view the offseason:
(1) Elias saw the 2022 season as a bit of a fluke, viewed regression as likely and didn’t want to commit big money in free agency just yet, not until it was a sure thing the Orioles were serious contenders. Even though he had said in August 2022 that “our plan for the offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” this more conservative approach made some sense — even if Orioles fans wanted the club to go after Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon.
(2) Ownership didn’t provide the checkbook. Definitely possible, especially in light of John Angelos’ comments to the New York Times in August: “The hardest thing to do in sports is to be a small-market team in baseball and be competitive, because everything is stacked against you — everything,” he said. Angelos went on to elaborate: “Let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles. You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200 million, that player $150 million, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the [ticket] prices massively.” That doesn’t sound like an owner desiring big increases to the payroll — and blaming it on ticket prices.
(3) Elias was simply following the Astros’ blueprint he was once part of: Be cautious, trust your player development — and don’t overspend on big free agents. As the Astros rebuilt, they also had a surprise season, making the playoffs as a wild card in 2015. But that didn’t lead to an emptying of the coffers. When the Astros did need to make a big move, they did it via trades that brought in players with shorter long-term commitments than would have been required to sign a comparable free agent: Verlander in 2017, Gerrit Cole in 2018 and Zack Greinke in 2019. It helped that the Astros made three great trades in which the only significant major leaguer they traded away was Joe Musgrove.
So the Orioles played it safe — but it has worked out. The rotation is still the weakest part of the team, but it has improved to 16th in ERA, 14th in strikeout rate and 17th in FanGraphs WAR. Bradish has made a big leap and has allowed more than three runs just once in his past 16 starts. Rodriguez has lived up to the hype in the second half. Gibson and Dean Kremer have been reliable and not missed a start. The O’s also just got John Means back for his first start since April 2022. The one disappointment has been deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty, who has a 7.16 ERA in six starts with Baltimore.
THE BEST PART of all this, if you’re an Orioles fan: It’s just the beginning. The Orioles have more waves of talent coming. That 110-loss season in 2021 led to another first overall pick in the 2022 draft. Jackson Holliday and Dru Jones, both sons of major leaguers, were the consensus top two talents. The Orioles went with Holliday, not necessarily the slam-dunk choice, and the 19-year-old shortstop has emerged as the top prospect in the minors, rising from Low-A all the way to Triple-A in his first full professional season.
Colton Cowser, the fifth overall pick in 2021, has reached the majors (although he hit .115 in 61 at-bats). Heston Kjerstad, the second overall pick in 2020, had some initial health problems, but he raked in Triple-A and just got called up. Coby Mayo, a fourth rounder in 2020, is just 21, already in Triple-A and, with a .970 OPS, is having one of the best seasons of any minor leaguer. Infielder Jordan Westburg, the 30th overall pick in 2020, is in the majors and has contributed 1.4 WAR in 58 games. All these guys will be competing for playing time in 2024, along with shortstop Joey Ortiz and second baseman Connor Norby, both also raking at Triple-A Norfolk — and the O’s won’t have room for all of them.
Note that these are all position players. The Orioles followed the model that Epstein deployed with the Cubs: Focus on hitters with your early draft picks. Under Elias and scouting director Brad Ciolek, all seven of the team’s first-round picks have been position players. Eight of their nine second-round picks have been position players. It’s one thing to have a strategy, but it’s another to make the right selections and the Orioles have done that.
With so much talent and payroll flexibility, the Orioles can basically do anything they want this offseason. They can make their version of the Verlander or Cole trade. They can sign a couple of free agent pitchers (if ownership is willing to spend money) and let all the young position players battle each other for playing time. Heck, if Shohei Ohtani wants to play for a winner, he should consider heading to Baltimore.
Because there is no doubt that the Orioles are going to do a lot of winning in upcoming seasons. They’re in the playoffs for the first time since 2016 thanks to a perfectly executed rebuilding plan. I’d bet on them succeeding in the next phases of that plan.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — A blunder that typifies the current state of the New York Yankees, who find themselves in the midst of their second six-game losing streak in three weeks, happened in front of 41,401 fans at Citi Field on Saturday, and almost nobody noticed.
The Yankees were jogging off the field after securing the third out of the fourth inning of their 12-6 loss to the Mets when shortstop Anthony Volpe, as is standard for teams across baseball at the end of innings, threw the ball to right fielder Aaron Judge as he crossed into the infield from right field.
Only Judge wasn’t looking, and the ball nailed him in the head, knocking his sunglasses off and leaving a small cut near his right eye. The wound required a bandage to stop the bleeding, but Judge stayed in the game.
“Confusion,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “I didn’t know what happened initially. [It just] felt like something happened. Of course I was a little concerned.”
Avoiding an injury to the best player in baseball was on the Yankees’ very short list of positives in another sloppy, draining defeat to their crosstown rivals. With the loss, the Yankees, who held a three-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East standings entering June 30, find themselves tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for second place three games behind the Blue Jays heading into Sunday’s Subway Series finale.
The nosedive has been fueled by messy defense and a depleted pitching staff that has encountered a wall.
“It’s been a terrible week,” said Boone, who before the game announced starter Clarke Schmidt will likely undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.
For the second straight day, the Mets capitalized on mistakes and cracked timely home runs. After slugging three homers in Friday’s series opener, the Mets hit three more Saturday — a grand slam in the first inning from Brandon Nimmo to take a 4-0 lead and two home runs from Pete Alonso to widen the gap.
Nimmo’s blast — his second grand slam in four days — came after Yankees left fielder Jasson Dominguez misplayed a ball hit by the Mets’ leadoff hitter in the first inning. On Friday, he misread Nimmo’s line drive and watched it sail over his head for a double. On Saturday, he was slow to react to Starling Marte’s flyball in the left-center field gap and braked without catching or stopping it, allowing Marte to advance to second for a double. Yankees starter Carlos Rodon then walked two batters to load the bases for Nimmo, who yanked a mistake, a 1-2 slider over the wall.
“That slider probably needs to be down,” said Rodon, who allowed seven runs (six earned) over five innings. “A lot of misses today and they punished them.”
Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s throwing woes at third base — a position the Yankees have asked him to play to accommodate DJ LeMahieu at second base — continued in the second inning when he fielded Tyrone Taylor’s groundball and sailed a toss over first baseman Cody Bellinger’s head. Taylor was given second base and scored moments later on Marte’s RBI single.
The Yankees were charged with their second error in the Mets’ four-run seventh inning when center fielder Trent Grisham charged Francisco Lindor’s single up the middle and had it bounce off the heel of his glove.
The mistake allowed a run to score from second base without a throw, extending the Mets lead back to three runs after the Yankees had chipped their deficit, and allowed a heads-up Lindor to advance to second base. Lindor later scored on Alonso’s second home run, a three-run blast off left-hander Jayvien Sandridge in the pitcher’s major league debut.
“Just got to play better,” Judge said. “That’s what it comes down to. It’s fundamentals. Making a routine play, routine. It’s just the little things. That’s what it kind of comes down to. But every good team goes through a couple bumps in the road.”
This six-game losing skid has looked very different from the Yankees’ first. That rough patch, consisting of losses to the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels, was propelled by offensive troubles. The Yankees scored six runs in the six games and gave up just 16. This time, run prevention is the issue; the Yankees have scored 34 runs and surrendered 54 in four games against the Blue Jays in Toronto and two in Queens.
“The offense is starting to swing the bat, put some runs on the board,” Boone said. “The pitching, which has kind of carried us a lot this season, has really, really struggled this week. We haven’t caught the ball as well as I think we should.
“So, look, when you live it and you’re going through it, it sucks, it hurts. But you got to be able to handle it. You got to be able to deal with it. You got to be able to weather it and come out of this and grow.”
Bobby Jenks, a two-time All-Star pitcher for the Chicago White Sox who was on the roster when the franchise won the 2005 World Series, died Friday in Sintra, Portugal, the team announced.
Jenks, 44, who had been diagnosed with adenocarcinoma, a form of stomach cancer, this year, spent six seasons with the White Sox from 2005 to 2010 and also played for the Boston Red Sox in 2011. The reliever finished his major league career with a 16-20 record, 3.53 ERA and 173 saves.
“We have lost an iconic member of the White Sox family today,” White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said in a statement. “None of us will ever forget that ninth inning of Game 4 in Houston, all that Bobby did for the 2005 World Series champions and for the entire Sox organization during his time in Chicago. He and his family knew cancer would be his toughest battle, and he will be missed as a husband, father, friend and teammate. He will forever hold a special place in all our hearts.”
After Jenks moved to Portugal last year, he was diagnosed with a deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. That eventually spread into blood clots in his lungs, prompting further testing. He was later diagnosed with adenocarcinoma and began undergoing radiation.
In February, as Jenks was being treated for the illness, the White Sox posted “We stand with you, Bobby” on Instagram, adding in the post that the club was “thinking of Bobby as he is being treated.”
In 2005, as the White Sox ended an 88-year drought en route to the World Series title, Jenks appeared in six postseason games. Chicago went 11-1 in the playoffs, and he earned saves in series-clinching wins in Game 3 of the ALDS at Boston, and Game 4 of the World Series against the Houston Astros.
In 2006, Jenks saved 41 games, and the following year, he posted 40 saves. He also retired 41 consecutive batters in 2007, matching a record for a reliever.
“You play for the love of the game, the joy of it,” Jenks said in his last interview with SoxTV last year. “It’s what I love to do. I [was] playing to be a world champion, and that’s what I wanted to do from the time I picked up a baseball.”
A native of Mission Hills, California, Jenks appeared in 19 games for the Red Sox and was originally drafted by the then-Anaheim Angels in the fifth round of the 2000 draft.
Jenks is survived by his wife, Eleni Tzitzivacos, their two children, Zeno and Kate, and his four children from a prior marriage, Cuma, Nolan, Rylan and Jackson.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — The New York Yankees, digging for options to bolster their infield, have signed third baseman Jeimer Candelario to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the affiliate announced Saturday.
Candelario, 31, was released by the Cincinnati Reds on June 23, halfway through a three-year, $45 million contract he signed before the start of last season. The decision was made after Candelario posted a .707 OPS in 2024 and batted .113 with a .410 OPS in 22 games for the Reds before going on the injured list in April with a back injury.
The performance was poor enough for Cincinnati to cut him in a move that Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall described as a sunk cost.
For the Yankees, signing Candelario is a low-cost flier on a player who recorded an .807 OPS just two seasons ago as they seek to find a third baseman to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second base, his natural position.
Candelario is the second veteran infielder the Yankees have signed to a minor league contract in the past three days; they agreed to terms with Nicky Lopez on Thursday.