The Orioles are headed to the playoffs — and the rise of the O’s has just begun
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
DURING THE SECOND game of the 2023 MLB season, on a cloudy 56-degree day at Fenway Park, the Baltimore Orioles were looking to start the campaign with their second straight win, after barely holding on for a teeth-clenching victory on Opening Day in which they nearly blew a 10-4 lead. The Orioles led 8-7 with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the ninth. Masataka Yoshida lofted a routine fly ball to left fielder Ryan McKenna, a can of corn in Little League, in high school and certainly in the major leagues.
McKenna dropped the ball.
Adam Duvall followed with a walk-off home run off Felix Bautista.
When the Boston Red Sox won the next day, the early verdict was in: The Orioles were 1-2, had allowed 27 runs and, just as everyone had predicted, didn’t have nearly enough pitching and were destined to finish near the bottom of the tough American League East.
The Orioles have been so methodically consistent all season and now that they’ve clinched a playoff spot while on their way to 100 wins — a mark the franchise last achieved in 1980, by the way — it’s easy to forget that not much was expected from them in March. Though they were surprise winners of 83 games in 2022, the consensus was clear: That wasn’t going to happen again. ESPN forecasted 74 wins. FanGraphs projected 76. None of ESPN’s 28 voters picked the Orioles to win the division — or even to get in as a wild card.
Mea culpa.
The Orioles are leading the best division in baseball, though the Tampa Bay Rays are close on their heels. They’re not that far behind the Atlanta Braves for the best overall record. They are, most definitely, World Series contenders — and they’re going to be in this position for the foreseeable future thanks to general manager Mike Elias’ rebuild that has a chance to rival what Theo Epstein did with the Chicago Cubs and Jeff Luhnow — Elias’ mentor — did with the Houston Astros.
That muffed fly ball has long since been forgotten.
YOU CAN TRACE the Orioles’ turnaround to the first pick of the 2019 MLB draft. Under GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, the Orioles had made the playoffs three times from 2012 to 2016, but the fall from those years was rapid and painful: In 2018, the Orioles finished 47-115, becoming just the fifth team since 1900 to lose 115 games. Duquette and Showalter were let go and Elias came to Baltimore from Houston, where he had been the Astros’ scouting director and then assistant GM.
There is always some luck involved when trying to rebuild an organization and the Orioles had the good fortune of having their terrible season at the right time. Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman was the clear No. 1 talent in the 2019 draft class, one of the most accomplished hitters in NCAA history and a top defensive catcher to boot. The first pick in baseball isn’t always a sure superstar, but everything on Rutschman’s resume pointed to a sure thing.
The pandemic’s impact on minor league baseball delayed Rutschman’s arrival to the Orioles, but things immediately turned around after he was called up in May 2022. The Orioles were 16-24 when Rutschman debuted, then went 60-47 in games he started the rest of the way and 87-51 so far in 2023. They’re an incredible 114-69 when he starts at catcher. The oft-made comparison to Buster Posey is apt. Rutschman may not be a 30-homer slugger, just as Posey never was, but like Posey he gets on base, plays great defense and is that all-important stabilizing personality on the field and in the clubhouse. He may not have the highest WAR on the 2023 Orioles, but there’s no doubt he’s the heart of the team.
While Rutschman was the obvious No. 1 overall pick, the Orioles also hit a home run with the first pick of the second round: high school shortstop Gunnar Henderson. A late riser from Alabama, draft analysts had Henderson potentially going in the first round because of a broad base of skills, but he had faced weak high school competition and most scouts saw him ending up at third base.
Despite COVID wiping out his 2020 season, Henderson soared through the minors and reached Baltimore late last season at just 21 years old. He got off to a slow start, hitting .189 in April and .213 in May, but he has been one of the best hitters in the majors the past four months, slashing .286/.331/.551 with 20 home runs since the beginning of June. Henderson, who turned 22 in June, leads the team in WAR and his raw power is probably his best tool but like so many of the Orioles, he’s a baseball player, in the sense that he does everything well. Via Statcast’s baserunning value metric, Henderson is at plus-4 runs, tied for the major league lead with, among others, speedsters Corbin Carroll and Bobby Witt Jr.
Henderson’s baserunning is par for the course for the Orioles. Maybe it’s a cliché to say they don’t beat themselves or they do the little things well, but they don’t beat themselves and they do the little things well. They’re second behind only the Braves in baserunner advancement, taking the extra base — such as first to third on a single or second to home on double — 49% of the time (the Braves are at 50%). Only three teams have committed fewer errors, they’re top 10 in defensive runs saved and second in fewest stolen bases allowed. They’ve been terrific in one-run games, going 26-12 (and 10-6 in extra-inning games). They’re 10-3 against the Toronto Blue Jays and 8-5 against the Rays.
When you’ve hit rock bottom the way the Orioles did in 2018, you have to hit on draft picks like Rutschman and Henderson, otherwise you’ll need a rebuild to your rebuild — see Tigers, Detroit; or Royals, Kansas City. As Travis Sawchik detailed in theScore in March, the Orioles like to preach something called “growth mindset,” a term first coined by Stanford psychologist Carol Dweck that suggests skills can be learned and improved. During the COVID shutdown, Orioles staffers even met with minor leaguers on Zoom to discuss Dweck’s book. Rutschman and Henderson both bought into the concept.
Of course, the power of a positive mindset isn’t necessarily unique to the age of analytics, but there’s no doubting the Orioles’ player development success under Elias. Indeed, players such as Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle were all already in the organization when Elias took over; the first three had all reached the majors but had yet to do much. Those four have flourished in recent seasons and produced over 10.5 combined WAR so far in 2023, providing the lineup depth alongside the two young stars (Ryan O’Hearn, purchased from the Royals in January, has been a pleasant surprise and is now the team’s cleanup hitter against right-handed pitchers).
On the pitching side, rookie Grayson Rodriguez was the team’s first-round pick in 2018, the final draft of the Duquette regime. The top-rated pitching prospect in the majors heading into 2023, Rodriguez had a rough start and was eventually sent back to the minors, but he returned after the All-Star break and has a 2.55 ERA over his past nine starts. Bautista was also in the organization since the Orioles signed him in 2016 after the Miami Marlins released him. It took the All-Star closer a long time before he emerged last season, and he was having an even more dominant season in 2023 before recently landing on the injured list with a sore elbow (that could sideline him the rest of the season, putting a damper on Baltimore’s World Series aspirations).
Rebuilding teams also need to make good on minor transactions that usually lead nowhere. Kyle Bradish, the team’s best starter, came over from the Los Angeles Angels as a minor leaguer in 2019 in the Dylan Bundy trade. Rookie setup man (and now closer) Yennier Cano was essentially a throw-in as part of last year’s Jorge Lopez trade with the Minnesota Twins. Starter Tyler Wells, who pitched well early in the season, was a Rule 5 pick in 2020 (also from the Twins). The Orioles signed Aaron Hicks in May after the New York Yankees released him; he was hitting .188 but has flourished in Baltimore with a .296/.385/.475 slash line. Smart and lucky is a good combination.
AFTER THE ORIOLES improved from 52-110 in 2021 to 83-79 last season — the ninth-biggest year-to-year improvement in MLB history — Baltimore fans expected, or at least hoped, that Elias would address the rotation. The Orioles had ranked 23rd in the majors in ERA, 26th in strikeout rate and 25th in FanGraphs WAR — not exactly a playoff-caliber rotation. The big moves were anticlimactic: The team signed veteran innings eater Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10 million contract and acquired Cole Irvin from the A’s. Thus, the less-than-stellar projections.
There are three ways to view the offseason:
(1) Elias saw the 2022 season as a bit of a fluke, viewed regression as likely and didn’t want to commit big money in free agency just yet, not until it was a sure thing the Orioles were serious contenders. Even though he had said in August 2022 that “our plan for the offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” this more conservative approach made some sense — even if Orioles fans wanted the club to go after Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon.
(2) Ownership didn’t provide the checkbook. Definitely possible, especially in light of John Angelos’ comments to the New York Times in August: “The hardest thing to do in sports is to be a small-market team in baseball and be competitive, because everything is stacked against you — everything,” he said. Angelos went on to elaborate: “Let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles. You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200 million, that player $150 million, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the [ticket] prices massively.” That doesn’t sound like an owner desiring big increases to the payroll — and blaming it on ticket prices.
(3) Elias was simply following the Astros’ blueprint he was once part of: Be cautious, trust your player development — and don’t overspend on big free agents. As the Astros rebuilt, they also had a surprise season, making the playoffs as a wild card in 2015. But that didn’t lead to an emptying of the coffers. When the Astros did need to make a big move, they did it via trades that brought in players with shorter long-term commitments than would have been required to sign a comparable free agent: Verlander in 2017, Gerrit Cole in 2018 and Zack Greinke in 2019. It helped that the Astros made three great trades in which the only significant major leaguer they traded away was Joe Musgrove.
So the Orioles played it safe — but it has worked out. The rotation is still the weakest part of the team, but it has improved to 16th in ERA, 14th in strikeout rate and 17th in FanGraphs WAR. Bradish has made a big leap and has allowed more than three runs just once in his past 16 starts. Rodriguez has lived up to the hype in the second half. Gibson and Dean Kremer have been reliable and not missed a start. The O’s also just got John Means back for his first start since April 2022. The one disappointment has been deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty, who has a 7.16 ERA in six starts with Baltimore.
THE BEST PART of all this, if you’re an Orioles fan: It’s just the beginning. The Orioles have more waves of talent coming. That 110-loss season in 2021 led to another first overall pick in the 2022 draft. Jackson Holliday and Dru Jones, both sons of major leaguers, were the consensus top two talents. The Orioles went with Holliday, not necessarily the slam-dunk choice, and the 19-year-old shortstop has emerged as the top prospect in the minors, rising from Low-A all the way to Triple-A in his first full professional season.
Colton Cowser, the fifth overall pick in 2021, has reached the majors (although he hit .115 in 61 at-bats). Heston Kjerstad, the second overall pick in 2020, had some initial health problems, but he raked in Triple-A and just got called up. Coby Mayo, a fourth rounder in 2020, is just 21, already in Triple-A and, with a .970 OPS, is having one of the best seasons of any minor leaguer. Infielder Jordan Westburg, the 30th overall pick in 2020, is in the majors and has contributed 1.4 WAR in 58 games. All these guys will be competing for playing time in 2024, along with shortstop Joey Ortiz and second baseman Connor Norby, both also raking at Triple-A Norfolk — and the O’s won’t have room for all of them.
Note that these are all position players. The Orioles followed the model that Epstein deployed with the Cubs: Focus on hitters with your early draft picks. Under Elias and scouting director Brad Ciolek, all seven of the team’s first-round picks have been position players. Eight of their nine second-round picks have been position players. It’s one thing to have a strategy, but it’s another to make the right selections and the Orioles have done that.
With so much talent and payroll flexibility, the Orioles can basically do anything they want this offseason. They can make their version of the Verlander or Cole trade. They can sign a couple of free agent pitchers (if ownership is willing to spend money) and let all the young position players battle each other for playing time. Heck, if Shohei Ohtani wants to play for a winner, he should consider heading to Baltimore.
Because there is no doubt that the Orioles are going to do a lot of winning in upcoming seasons. They’re in the playoffs for the first time since 2016 thanks to a perfectly executed rebuilding plan. I’d bet on them succeeding in the next phases of that plan.
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Mark Schlabach
OXFORD, Miss. — Before sunrise on Tuesday morning, barely a day after Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin set the college football world ablaze with reports that members of his family had visited Florida and LSU, he went to the one place he figured might cool things down — social media.
In a post on his X account, Kiffin encouraged everyone to “have the best Tuesday ever” and included a photo of a page from Brianna Wiest’s self-development book, “The Pivot Year: 365 Days to Become the Person You Truly Want to Be.”
“How do you know what to do next?” the passage said. “You ask yourself, honestly, what your 90-year-old self would advise you to do. What they would have wished you had done. You ask yourself, honestly, what you’ve sensed from the beginning. What you have ignored, what you have quieted and distracted yourself from.”
Wiest encouraged readers to make two lists, one of the positives and one of the negatives, and weigh them.
“And if there is one thing on the left that overpowers the dozen things on the right, then you trust that,” Wiest wrote. “You ask yourself what path will make you more of the person you are meant to be.”
That is the dilemma 50-year-old Kiffin is facing. He has two potential paths.
Stay at the university in the small Southern town with the small stadium (64,038) and small (but growing) trophy case that gave him a second chance in big-time college football when most others wouldn’t.
Or take a job at a bigger university with a bigger stadium in a bigger city that might provide him with a better opportunity to win an SEC title and national championship.
Who is Kiffin meant to be? The coach who has restored his once-sullied public image and seems genuinely happy living in the same small town as two of his children and his ex-wife? Or the coach whose ego won’t let him pass up an opportunity to coach in a stadium with more than 100,000 seats under the brightest lights and on the biggest stage, while potentially leaving another scorned fan base cursing his name after another ugly exit?
“With Lane, nothing is ever off the table, as you probably know,” a source familiar with the situation told ESPN on Tuesday. “I think that LSU is a real threat. There was so much smoke around Florida, but LSU is the one that really scares you.”
Not long ago, Kiffin was a coach with a checkered past who many athletic directors believed wasn’t worth the risk. Now, he’s the hottest commodity in this season’s coaching carousel after leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record and the No. 6 spot in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s latest rankings.
With one regular-season game left, against rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl in Starkville on Nov. 28 (noon ET, ABC), the Rebels are in line to make their first CFP appearance and possibly host a first-round game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Dec. 19 or 20.
“I’m going to say what I’ve done for six years, which is not talk about other jobs and that situation,” Kiffin said during Wednesday’s SEC teleconference. “I love it here and it’s been amazing. And we’re in the season that’s the greatest run in the history of Ole Miss at this point — never been at this point. So I think it’s really exciting, and so I’m just living in the moment that amazing.”
Kiffin has done it with a new quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss, who spent last season at Division II Ferris State in Michigan, and a transfer running back, Kewan Lacy, who leads the FBS with 19 rushing touchdowns. The Rebels are No. 2 in the SEC in total offense (493.8 yards) and passing yards (305.1) and third in scoring (37.2 points).
Indeed, these are heady times for a program that has won only one national championship, in 1960, in the 120-year history of the program. Ole Miss hasn’t captured an SEC title since legendary coach Johnny Vaught guided the team to a 7-1-2 record in 1963, and it hasn’t even played in the SEC championship game since its inception in 1992.
In an interview with “The Pat McAfee Show” on ESPN on Tuesday, Kiffin said he reminds his players that these are the best of times and to enjoy them.
“Hey, those good old days, you’re in them right now,” Kiffin said. “Someday, 10, 20 years from now, you’re going to be saying, ‘Man, remember that run we had at Ole Miss, and we had that Division II quarterback that would make all those plays, and the running back was leading the country in touchdowns, and there was a dog running around on the field and the players were dunking?’
“I said, ‘You’re in the good old days right now, so just have fun, enjoy it,’ and I think if you watch our team, you see them doing that.”
Will the good times last in Oxford, though?
On Sunday, Kiffin’s ex-wife, Layla; his son, Knox; and his brother Chris’ son visited Gainesville, Florida. Layla and other family members visited the LSU campus in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the next day.
On McAfee’s show Tuesday, Kiffin denied that Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter issued an ultimatum for him to decide about his future.
“Yeah, that’s absolutely not true,” Kiffin said. “There’s been no ultimatum, anything like that at all. And so, I don’t know where that came from, like a lot of stuff that comes out there. Like I said, man, we’re having a blast. I love it here.”
0:44
Paul Finebaum: Lane Kiffin not stopping the Florida speculation
Paul Finebaum offers his take on whether Lane Kiffin wants to leave Ole Miss for Florida.
However, sources told ESPN that Carter is pressing Kiffin for clarity about his future by this coming weekend. Is Kiffin staying at Ole Miss or leaving for Florida or LSU?
Kiffin and Carter declined interviews for this story. An Ole Miss spokesperson told ESPN that Carter prefers for both men to focus on beating Mississippi State, which would secure the Rebels the second 11-win season in school history.
When Kiffin was asked Wednesday whether he was aware of any way he wouldn’t coach in next week’s Egg Bowl, he said, “Of course, I’m coaching. I mean, unless you guys know something [that] I don’t. Or I’m getting fired and I don’t know it.”
It’s unclear whether Carter will allow Kiffin to coach the Rebels in a potential CFP game if he decides to leave after the season. Former New York Giants head coach Joe Judge is in his first season as the Rebels’ quarterbacks coach and might be in position to serve as interim coach if Kiffin leaves.
Attorney Thomas Mars, whose clients have included many college coaches and athletic directors, reviewed Kiffin’s contract and found that, under its terms, “Ole Miss can ‘change or reassign [his] duties’ under certain circumstances, which include him ‘seeking or considering’ employment with another school without giving ‘prior written notice’ to the athletics director.”
If Kiffin or his representatives provided Ole Miss with prior written notice that he was talking to Florida and/or LSU, Mars didn’t see anything in the language of the contract that would legally prevent him from coaching in the CFP.
Kiffin’s list of positives for remaining at Ole Miss might be a lengthy one. After spending much of the early part of his career on the West Coast, as an assistant and head coach at USC and head coach of the Oakland Raiders, he has found an unlikely home in Oxford.
The slower pace has been good for him. He no longer drinks alcohol, doesn’t eat red meat or bread, and does hot yoga every morning at 6. In September, Kiffin told ESPN that he spends many Saturday nights eating pizza and watching college football games with his son, who is a sophomore quarterback at Oxford High School, and his friends.
“That’s what you do when you don’t drink,” Kiffin said.
His daughter Landry is a junior at Ole Miss. His younger daughter, Presley, is a freshman at USC and member of the Trojans’ volleyball team.
When Kiffin was asked Wednesday whether he’d be more hesitant to make a job change now that his kids are older, he said, “I do think that people with time change. And maybe when they’re younger, you make really fast decisions, which I’ve gone on record and said that before, in life [and] in situations. And I think as you get older and more mature and look at things differently, maybe you take longer to make the proper decision.”
Kiffin’s off-field behavior raised concerns for administrators during his previous coaching stops at Tennessee and Alabama, where he was an assistant coach under Nick Saban from 2014 to 2016.
He says he has found self-discipline at Ole Miss. He told ESPN that he even leaves his cellphone in his car most mornings.
“I just keep trying to come up with things to challenge discipline,” Kiffin said. “It started in training camp. I told my assistants, ‘You guys are just as bad as these kids. All you guys are addicted to your phones. I’m going to show you.'”
Kiffin might check his cellphone at lunch to make sure there’s not a family emergency or problem involving a player, but otherwise he doesn’t use it again until about 9 p.m.
“It’s awesome,” Kiffin said. “It’s amazing how much more productive you are. Like, until you do it, you don’t realize how much time you waste. And I’m not even a bad phone guy, as some people are.”
On the field, Kiffin has built arguably the best SEC program outside of Alabama and Georgia, at least in terms of victories the past six seasons. The Rebels are 54-19 in his six seasons — only the Crimson Tide (66-12) and Bulldogs (70-8) have more wins in the SEC since the start of the 2020 season. In fact, the Rebels have the eighth-most wins among power-conference teams during that stretch.
If Kiffin were comparing the Rebels to Florida and LSU six years ago, it might have been an easy decision to leave. However, that might not be the case anymore.
Since the start of the 2020 season, the Gators are 36-37. With a 3-7 record so far this season, they will have their fourth losing campaign in the past six years. Urban Meyer led the Gators to national championships in 2006 and 2008, but they’ve cycled through four coaches since he left after the 2010 season. Florida fired Billy Napier on Oct. 19 after his teams went 22-23 in four seasons.
Layla Kiffin, who moved to Oxford earlier this year to be close to two of their three children, is familiar with Gainesville. Her father, John Reaves, was a star quarterback for the Gators from 1969 to 1971. He left as the NCAA’s leading career passer with 7,581 yards and an SEC-record 54 touchdowns. After playing 11 seasons in the NFL, Reaves was an assistant under Steve Spurrier from 1990 to 1994.
LSU has been better than Florida since the start of the 2020 season, with a 46-27 record. The Tigers have lost at least three games in each of the past six seasons after quarterback Joe Burrow led them to a 15-0 record and a national championship in 2019.
Tigers coach Ed Orgeron was fired less than two years later. His replacement, former Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly, was fired Oct. 26 after his teams compiled a 34-14 record in three-plus seasons.
There’s also the current political climate to consider at LSU. Days after Kelly was fired, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry criticized then-LSU athletic director Scott Woodward for agreeing to a 10-year, $95 million contract with Kelly that left LSU on the hook for a $54 million buyout. Woodward stepped down under pressure Oct. 30 and was replaced by longtime LSU athletics administrator Verge Ausberry.
On Nov. 10, Kelly’s attorneys sued LSU’s board of supervisors after the university purportedly notified Kelly that it was seeking to fire him “for cause” to avoid paying his full buyout.
“Crazy doesn’t scare Lane,” a source told ESPN. “That’s probably not going to scare him away.”
A former SEC coach, who hadn’t spoken to Kiffin about the situation, believed Florida and LSU were still better jobs than Ole Miss because of, among other factors, the other schools’ recruiting bases. Kiffin has relied heavily on the transfer portal in building his rosters in the past few seasons; the Rebels brought in 29 transfers this past season.
“It’s really hard to turn over your roster like that every year,” the coach said. “You must be almost perfect in your defensive evaluations, and that’s hard to do. You can’t keep doing it.”
At the very least, though, Ole Miss officials hope the on-field struggles at their SEC rivals will give them a chance to keep Kiffin beyond this season.
“I think he’s going, ‘Well, maybe I can be a national contender here, and they give me everything I want. They let me be me,'” a source familiar with the situation said. “I know that’s easy to say, but, you know, Lane’s not an easy guy. I think we’ve learned how to deal with him and how to manage him and let him be him, and I think he appreciates that. So, yeah, I don’t think we’re out of it by any means.”
If Kiffin leaves Ole Miss, it wouldn’t be the first messy departure in his coaching career. When he abruptly left Tennessee after only 14 months to return to USC as Pete Carroll’s replacement in January 2010, hundreds of students protested outside the football complex, burning a mattress and T-shirts bearing his name.
Kiffin lasted three-plus seasons with the Trojans and was infamously fired in the early-morning hours by athletic director Pat Haden at a private terminal at LAX after an ugly 62-41 loss at Arizona State in the fifth game of the 2013 season.
Then, after Kiffin spent three seasons rebuilding his career as Alabama’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Saban relieved him of his duties on Jan. 2, 2017, a week before the Crimson Tide were to play Clemson in the CFP National Championship. Steve Sarkisian called the plays in Alabama’s 35-31 loss, and Kiffin left to become the head coach at Florida Atlantic, which had hired him three weeks earlier.
How will things turn out in Oxford? No one knows — at least not yet.
“If there’s one thing about Lane,” a source told ESPN, “it’s that you never know what he’s going to do until he does it.”
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Dan Wetzel
Lane Kiffin will always regret it if he quits on his Ole Miss team.
He’ll always have remorse if he decides to go take another job — Florida or LSU — right on the verge of leading a likely 11-1 Rebels team into the College Football Playoff. He’ll never live down the fact he turned his back on a locker room ready to fight with him for a national title — all for the perceived greener grass of Gainesville or Baton Rouge.
What kind of coach would do that?
This has nothing to do with what job offers more advantages or money or proximity to talent. It has nothing to do with the long term.
Timing is everything in life. Sometimes for the positive, sometimes not. That’s how it works. Adults deal with it.
Kiffin may be free to walk from the Rebels, but everyone else is free to judge him if he does.
If he does, that judgment won’t be positive.
Kiffin, 50, knows drama and setbacks. USC fired him at an airport. Nick Saban bounced him as an Alabama assistant just days before a national title game, convinced he was too focused on his next job as the coach at Florida Atlantic. Al Davis dumped him from the Oakland Raiders and declared he had been “conned” into hiring him in the first place.
Kiffin also knows he has rebuilt his reputation, especially of late in Oxford. A better coach. A better father. A better person. When not discussing football, he talks about how balanced, sober and happy his life has become.
“The whole good old days … I’m in them right now,” Kiffin said Saturday after defeating, coincidentally, Florida. “I just think people don’t realize when they’re in them. And then they get older and they say, ‘Remember that it was great back then?’ You know, I’m just fortunate to be in them.”
Ole Miss is 10-1 heading into next week’s season finale against Mississippi State. The Rebels are primed to host a first-round playoff game, which would arguably be the biggest sporting event in the history of the state. That alone is a seminal moment for a school that has granted its coach every wish it could.
His success has made him a coveted coaching candidate, with two big-time programs seemingly willing to do anything to get him — including ignoring the fact that they are hiring a guy who would walk out on the eve of the postseason.
In a perfect world, this decision would take place after the Ole Miss season. That isn’t how the calendar works, though. UF and LSU need a coach. Returning talent needs to be convinced to stay. Recruits need to be identified.
The high school signing period begins on Dec. 3. The transfer portal opens on Jan. 2.
Ole Miss’ first-round playoff game would occur on Dec. 19 or 20. Win, as Ole Miss would be favored to do, and the quarterfinals are on New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day.
For Kiffin, it’s either stay or go. There is no time to do both. Pledge your allegiance to Ole Miss or walk out and start anew. The former might cost him an opportunity that he always wanted. The latter, however, would define him.
The coach who quit on a playoff team? It’s unthinkable.
Kiffin isn’t saying much, other than general comments about how happy he is at Ole Miss.
“We’re having a blast,” Kiffin said Tuesday on “The Pat McAfee Show.” Adding, “I love it here.”
That said, members of Kiffin’s family — including ex-wife Layla and son Knox, a high school sophomore — visited Gainesville and Baton Rouge in recent days, ESPN and others reported. Kiffin says Ole Miss hasn’t given him an ultimatum timeline, but there is no time like the present to make a decision.
Kiffin should stay and see the season out; attempt to win, try to reach the Final Four or beyond, make the memories, and forge the deep bonds that coaching is supposed to be about.
This has nothing to do with the quality of the opportunity at LSU or Florida. Both schools offer immense resources, commitment and potential. Both sit in talent-rich states. Both have advantages that Ole Miss can’t match, although here in the NIL/portal/revenue share era, the gap has closed.
In different circumstances, he could go; maybe he even should go.
Not in these circumstances, though. Not at this time. Not with a team this good, at a school this supportive, in a season this magical.
Certainly not without causing everyone to wonder if Al Davis was right all along.
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