Why Nick Saban and Alabama bottomed out at quarterback
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Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff Writer
Alabama receivers aren’t creating enough separation, the offensive line is allowing too much pressure in the backfield, getting a snap from center has turned into an adventure rather than a formality, the running game is inconsistent at best, players across the board are committing too many penalties and the offense as a whole doesn’t appear to have a sense of identity or direction.
Now Alabama finds itself outside the top 10 of The Associated Press’ poll for the first time in eight years. With the Crimson Tide absent from the playoff conversation, hope seems a long way off. Whether that remains true for the rest of the season is anyone’s guess.
And while it’s unfair to pin all the blame on the quarterbacks (see above), a critical eye has to start there. It’s the most important position on the field and the sharp decline has been startling. Alabama is a program that passed its QB baton from Jalen Hurts to Tua Tagovailoa to Mac Jones to Bryce Young. Depending on how you count Hurts’ time at Oklahoma, you’re talking about one or two Heisman Trophy winners and two Heisman finalists.
Coaches around the SEC last season said privately Young was covering up a lot of Alabama’s flaws, including the mediocre play on the line and at receiver that continues today, but no one thought to look further down the depth chart at what would be missing once he left. To go from four consecutive future NFL starting quarterbacks to the rotation of backups we saw Saturday against South Florida boggles the mind.
Jalen Milroe, Young’s former backup who began the season as the starter and was benched after throwing two interceptions in a loss to Texas, didn’t take a single snap in Tampa. Tyler Buchner, the late addition from Notre Dame, got the start and completed 5 of 14 passes for 34 yards before he was pulled. His replacement, redshirt freshman Ty Simpson, wasn’t much better, running for a 1-yard touchdown and completing 5 of 9 pass attempts for 73 yards.
Against an unranked opponent it was favored to beat by five touchdowns, against a team that had given up 41 points to Western Kentucky in the season opener, Alabama had to grind out a 17-3 win that ranked among the ugliest of coach Nick Saban’s 16-year tenure. Buchner and Simpson posted an 18.5 QBR in the game, the fourth lowest in 224 games under Saban and the lowest since 2009 against South Carolina.
Forget the five sacks, the 13 incompletions and that paltry QBR. Forget all those penalties that wiped points off the board. The video of a rain-soaked Saban leaving the field during a lightning delay told the story of a frustrating day.
Afterward, Saban was noncommittal about next steps.
But Monday, he seemed to have made up his mind.
“This is all I’m going to say about this,” Saban said. “Jalen really showed the leadership I was looking for in terms of supporting his teammates.”
Milroe, he added, “has earned the opportunity to be the quarterback.”
But if Milroe has another performance like the one against Texas — where he telegraphed his passes and threw a pair of back-breaking interceptions — will Saban stick with him? Saban craves consistency from his quarterbacks and values the ability to take care of the football seemingly above all else. Old school, he’s said on more than one occasion that if a drive ends in a kick, whether it’s a field goal or a punt, that’s fine by him.
So pay attention because the drama might not be over yet.
But before asking where Saban and Alabama go from here, you have to ask how they got here in the first place. How is it that no one was ready to replace Young after he left school as the No. 1 overall draft pick? How did it fall to Milroe, Buchner and Simpson? How did it get to the point that the break in case of emergency option — true freshman Dylan Lonergan — might have his number called before he’s ready?
The answer is complicated. Some sources close to the program say it’s as simple as the program’s good luck finally running out. The Hurts-Tagovailoa-Jones-Young run was unprecedented for a reason, they say. But other, more cynical sources, question the recruiting and development at the position the last two-plus years.
Milroe might not have been Alabama’s pick in the 2021 class had Drake Maye not decommitted in March 2020, opting instead to sign at North Carolina. Fast-forward to the end of last season and Alabama was back sniffing around Maye, according to multiple sources, in the event that he entered the transfer portal, which he didn’t.
By the time it became clear neither Milroe nor Simpson had separated themselves — after going through all of spring practice — Alabama was too late to find a top quarterback in the transfer portal. Sam Hartman had already gone to Notre Dame and Brennan Armstrong had already gone to NC State. The rest of the SEC had already cleaned up with Kentucky signing Devin Leary, who broke Philip Rivers’ single-season school record for touchdowns at NC State, and Ole Miss signing Spencer Sanders, an All Big-12 pick at Oklahoma State, and Walker Howard, a former five-star who spent his freshman year at LSU.
The rumor mill briefly connected Alabama and Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke in April; the speculation was so rampant that the Canes’ official X account posted a not-so-subtle message affirming Van Dyke’s commitment to the program. When the music stopped and the portal quit spinning, it was Buchner, who would have been Hartman’s backup, that became the best option remaining. And even then, Buchner was brought in not with the expectation that he’d be a slam-dunk starter but rather as someone who could compete and push Milroe and Simpson.
Maybe he did that. Maybe he didn’t. But Simpson started the season third on the depth chart for a reason and Milroe, despite being the starter the first two games, didn’t show noticeable improvement in his first real test against Texas. A former SEC coach said Milroe simply isn’t skilled enough in the short-to-intermediate passing game, which is what Alabama needs to keep defenses honest.
A Power 5 defensive coordinator said Milroe was essentially the same player he watched on film from a year ago: “Big play or nothing.” But in Milroe’s defense, he’s had to deal with a not insignificant amount of turnover during his time at Alabama. Former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — a wizard with the run-pass option — recruited him and left to become the head coach at Texas two weeks after he signed his letter of intent. Then, when the opportunity to start finally came this year, the O.C. who coached Milroe the last three seasons, Bill O’Brien, left to join the New England Patriots.
That’s not all. Alex Mortensen, the analyst and behind-the-scenes QB guru who spent nine seasons at Alabama, left in December to join the new staff at UAB. On Monday, Georgia coach Kirby Smart said of Mortensen, “He was at Alabama behind all the offenses — worked with Bill O’Brien, worked with Sark, was there when I was there. I have a lot of respect for Alex.”
Meanwhile, new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has pulled back some on the RPO game (down 3.1% from 2021-22, down 7.3% from 2019-20) that might suit Milroe’s skill set best.
“He’s in a tough spot, but I do think he’s talented,” Rees said of Milroe. “He throws a great deep ball, can create on his own. He just doesn’t have that ability to make the off-platform throws that Bryce Young did.”
Here’s the thing, though: Alabama doesn’t need any of its quarterbacks to be Bryce Young to have a more effective offense. At this point, it would take another Jake Coker — someone who can manage the game, take the occasional deep shot and limit bad plays. In fact, last week Saban compared the offense’s struggles to what the team went through in 2015 when Coker and Cooper Bateman competed for the starting job through the first three games of the season, including a heart-breaking loss to Ole Miss that prompted some in the media to speculate that Alabama’s dynasty was at its end. Coker won the job, the Tide ran the table and won the national championship.
But that optimistic narrative has one glaring plot hole: This team doesn’t appear to have another Derrick Henry to feed at running back. Henry set an SEC single-season record with 1,986 rushing yards in 2015 and won the Heisman.
With Saban reinserting Milroe into the starting lineup against Ole Miss on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS), will he use his speed to field a more run-heavy offense? It’s certainly possible. But can the offensive line support it? And will the receivers hold up their end of the bargain? And will the team stop shooting itself in the foot with penalties and unforced errors?
Picking a lane on offense is a good start to figuring things out, but it’s going to take a lot more than that for Alabama to get back on track and back in the playoff hunt.
Until then, the questions about who should start at quarterback will dominate the conversation and the doubts over the health of Saban’s dynasty won’t end.
Julian Sayin, the No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback and No. 3 overall prospect in next year’s class, has been committed to Alabama for nearly a year now and represents hope for the future. But he can’t get to Tuscaloosa soon enough.
Sports
Why no lead is safe, the Sam Bennett effect, and other Round 2 lessons of the Stanley Cup playoffs
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
Sixteen games have been played in the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. Some trends from Round 1 have continued. Others have not.
With multiple teams on the cusp of elimination, it’s time for another set of playoff takeaways, courtesy of NHL reporters Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton.
Jake Oettinger bolstering his case to be Team USA’s No. 1 goalie
Thatcher Demko. Connor Hellebuyck. Jake Oettinger. Jeremy Swayman. These appear to be the four leading names for who could play goal for the United States at the upcoming 4 Nations Face-Off in 2025, along with the Winter Olympics in 2026.
Having their pick of these goaltenders reinforces the belief that the U.S. is one of the front-runners to win both tournaments. Of course, one of them is expected to miss out, with teams usually taking three goalies. That’s a question that will likely get answered over time. But right now, Oettinger is using the 2024 playoffs to make a case to not only make the team but potentially get the nod in net.
Oettinger’s 24-save performance in the Dallas Stars‘ 5-1 win in Game 4 against the Colorado Avalanche means he is now 7-4 with a 2.12 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage this postseason. He has provided the sort of stability that has allowed the Stars to come within a game of reaching the Western Conference finals. And he did it while playing a proverbial SEC schedule, with the Stars facing the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights in the first round followed by the Avs, who won the Cup in 2022.
It’s possible that Demko, who has battled injuries the last few months, could return for the Vancouver Canucks if they can reach the conference finals. Hellebuyck, who is the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy, endured his most challenging postseason, with a GAA that was north of 5.00 and an .870 save percentage. As for Swayman, he’s posted a 2.28 GAA with a .920 save percentage, although the Boston Bruins‘ past three losses to the Florida Panthers have seen him surrender more than three goals per game since winning Game 1 of the series.
Other factors will go into the team selection (and lineup) process. But this postseason, Oettinger is providing the consistent high-level goaltending that Team USA will need in the upcoming best-on-best tournaments. — Clark
Bennett didn’t arrive until Game 3 of the Florida Panthers‘ series against the Boston Bruins, but suffice it to say, the man has made his mark. The Panthers forward has one goal, one assist, one controversial hit on Brad Marchand (that took the Bruins’ captain out of Game 4 with an upper-body injury) and one contentious scoring sequence under his belt already.
And the fans in Boston were happy to let Bennett have it whenever he touched the puck in Game 4.
Bennett is the latest example of a player becoming a playoff lightning rod. The question is: Will his antics galvanize the Bruins from here and help them overcome a 3-1 series deficit? Or is Bennett’s button-pushing going to give Florida further confidence to stay on top of its Atlantic Division rivals?
Game-changers in the playoffs aren’t always determined through the X’s and O’s, and Bennett has certainly spiced up the Florida-Boston matchup in unexpected ways. — Shilton
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Sam Bennett evens score with clutch power-play goal
Sam Bennett takes advantage on the power play and nets a huge goal for the Panthers to even the score against the Bruins.
Why can’t anyone in the West hold a lead?
One of the common threads in the Western Conference semifinal series is that no lead is safe. The Dallas Stars found that out in Game 1 when the Colorado Avalanche came back from a three-goal deficit to win in overtime. Game 2 saw the Stars build a 4-0 lead only to see the Avs score three before the Stars won 5-3. In Game 3, the Stars had a 1-0 lead until the Avs tied the game. The Stars scored again but were under threat before a pair of empty-net goals gave them a 4-1 lead.
The Edmonton Oilers had a two-goal lead in Game 1 before the Vancouver Canucks won 5-4. The Canucks had a pair of one-goal leads in Game 2 before the Oilers won it in overtime. Game 3 saw the Oilers jump out to a 1-0 lead before the Canucks scored three straight. Even then, the Oilers scored two of the game’s final three goals and made life hectic for the Canucks after they scored early in the third period before losing 4-3.
What is it about the Western Conference right now? Why is it that each of the four teams presents equal arguments for how it can charge out to a lead — and could lose it just as easily? One reason is that all four were rather strong at comebacks in the regular season. The Stars were 23-15-4 when their opponents scored first, while the Avalanche were 20-17-0 when their opponent got the first goal. As for the Oilers, they were 18-18-3 in those situations whereas the Canucks were 12-12-5.
“It’s certainly a mental boost and a pick-me-up if you believe in what your team’s doing and have firepower, which, I think, all the teams have firepower and can score,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. “You get something going your way, it’s snowballing going downhill and the other team is trying to survive for a little bit. If you can capitalize on a chance or two, it starts turning the tide.
“The belief gets stronger and stronger. … When you are playing from behind, you get to a certain part of the game where you have nothing to lose. You’re either going out with a loss or pushing to try and make it a win. I think it’s evenly matched teams, all desperate to try to survive and advance and lay it all on the line.” — Clark
Go big or go deep?
The New York Rangers–Carolina Hurricanes series is a fascinating look at how two great teams approached the trade deadline this season — with varied results.
Last season, the Rangers went all-in, acquiring Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko to (theoretically) give them a boost come playoff time. New York’s would-be stars never acted their part, and the Rangers made a first-round exit. This season, New York added depth in Alex Wennberg and Jack Roslovic so that its core could shine as is — and it’s working.
Meanwhile, Carolina followed the Rangers’ script from last season with the deadline blockbuster (hello, Jake Guentzel). But somehow, the Hurricanes’ ship plotting toward a Stanley Cup Final took on significant water in the second round.
Now, it’s not all due to one factor (or player). But this illustrates how it’s not always big swings that ultimately determine a team’s fate. Maybe it’s a mindset or mentality that comes with staying the course. New York essentially bet on itself to get the job done, and it’s working. Carolina gathered reinforcements, and that hasn’t paid off as quickly. And oddly enough, if anyone can relate, it’s the Rangers. — Shilton
Lingering questions on the Oilers’ goaltending
Stuart Skinner has become a topic of conversation for a second straight postseason. Last year, he was a rookie who was pulled four times, with three of those early exits coming in the second round. Fast forward to this postseason. In Game 3, he was pulled after two periods and now has a 4.63 goals-against average and a .790 save percentage in three games against the Canucks.
It left Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch with a decision ahead of Game 4. Does he return to Skinner? Does he turn to Calvin Pickard, who replaced Skinner in Game 3? Or does that all open the door for Jack Campbell? Even while trying to answer those questions, there’s another one facing the Oilers.
How will the decision facing Knoblauch this postseason impact the club going forward? Campbell is under contract for three more years at $5 million annually, while Skinner has two years left at $2.6 million annually. Pickard is a pending unrestricted free agent on a team that Cap Friendly projects will have a little less than $9 million in space in the offseason.
The past five years have watched the Oilers go from a team of promise with two generational talents in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid to one that carries championship expectations into each season. In that time, the Oilers’ front office has worked to address their needs, which have ranged from finding secondary scoring to strengthening a defense to getting the goaltenders they feel can help them win a title.
But with their current situation, what could next season look like for the Oilers in goal? Especially when they have 10 UFAs, seven of whom are forwards. And even that comes with the context that whatever they do this offseason could impact what happens in the summer of 2025, when Draisaitl could hit the open market. — Clark
Is Edmonton built to last?
There’s no doubt the Oilers can score. They’ve done plenty of it in the postseason. But is Edmonton designed to win over the long haul here?
Consider that the Oilers have tallied 33 goals total — but only 17 at even strength. That top-ranked power play has been a vital part of Edmonton’s success to date, and now it is experiencing what happens when it runs up against a sensational penalty kill like Vancouver’s. Pucks can stop finding twine as frequently on the man advantage. The Oilers are 4-for-8 on the power play through three games; the Canucks are nearly matching them, though, at 3-for-9. If the special teams battle becomes neutral ground, it’s fair to question whether the Oilers can get out of the second round based purely on their even-strength play.
McDavid has one 5-on-5 goal in the playoffs. Draisaitl has two. But each has 10 total points on the power play. Maybe there’s still a shift coming. That special teams mojo better start translating throughout the game for Edmonton, though. — Shilton
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