The past three World Series champions, the Atlanta Braves (+275, 2021 winner), Los Angeles Dodgers (+475, 2020 winner) and Houston Astros (+500, 2022 winner), are the top three in terms of title odds this October. They’re closely followed by the American League’s winningest team, the Baltimore Orioles (+650).
That said, each enters the postseason facing questions that might not have been present a few short weeks ago.
The Braves, considered the prohibitive favorites, have two key rotation members in Max Fried and Charlie Morton currently on the injured list.
The Dodgers, playing in their 11th straight October and winners of 10 division titles in that time, have a rotation fronted by 35-year-old Clayton Kershaw and with only one other active pitcher (Bobby Miller) who has made more than 12 starts for them.
The Astros squeaked into an AL West title on the regular season’s final day, but otherwise were a .500 team over the season’s final seven weeks.
The Orioles, meanwhile, learned on Saturday that closer Felix Bautista, a key cog in one of the game’s best bullpens, requires Tommy John surgery and will not be back to compete this postseason.
Short series, especially in the postseason’s early stages, can breed Cinderella stories. We saw it just last year with the Phillies’ charge into the World Series, and they might be a popular pick to do it again in 2023 (+1400 odds). The Brewers, behind their rotational top three (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta), might move the needle for bettors (+1800).
Who do our analysts pick to go all the way this October? Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell,Todd Zola and Tyler Fulghum share their picks.
Picks represent the analyst’s comfort with betting on the specified odds and does not imply bets they would make if odds weren’t considered. Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Wild-card round (best of 3)
Toronto Blue Jays (-114) vs. Minnesota Twins -105 Texas Rangers (+152) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-180) Arizona Diamondbacks (+160) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-190) Miami Marlins (+170) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
Cockcroft: Blue Jays (-114) and Rangers (+152): The Blue Jays might’ve opened as underdogs and transformed into slight favorites, but I still see value in them, with Kevin Gausman lined up to open that series and pretty good two-three men in Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt behind him. Additionally, the Blue Jays’ offense seems much more potent to me than its stat-sheet results indicated this year. Sure, the Twins have a solid one-two-three of their own in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray, but they also have a putrid October track record, and one that I think might again haunt them. The Twins have lost 15 consecutive postseason games — I do think that streak ends — and nine consecutive postseason series — I don’t think that gets snapped. Honorable mention goes to the Rangers, as the AL’s underdogs stand further out.
Karabell: Phillies (-200) and Brewers (-190) in the NL. Perhaps the odds are not so great, but I like the Phillies and Brewers to advance in the National League, and perhaps mirror what happened in the NL last season when the wild-card entrants knocked off teams with more wins to advance to the NL Championship Series. I will say that the odds on the Marlins are quite a bargain. They send lefties to the mound the first two games in Philly, and they could make things difficult for the home team, quickly.
Blue Jays (-114) in the AL: I want to pick the Twins because, let’s face it, the current players have nothing to do with the fact this franchise last won a playoff game when Eisenhower was president. (OK, it was 2004. Stop it.) The problem is several key hitters are injured (Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa), and even if they play this week, they might not be at full health. I take the Blue Jays, even though the odds aren’t so great for a road team, and the Rays in the AL.
Zola: Rays (-180) and Blue Jays (-114): The Rangers certainly played their way in with a strong September, but their first-half offense lived off an unsustainably high batting average with runners in scoring position. I’m also concerned injuries have stripped their rotation of ample quality arms and the bullpen is suspect. The Rays have as many injuries, but they have better bandages and are a team with a style to win in the playoffs. I was really hoping the Twins would be bigger underdogs as I think they could have pulled off the upset, but with the Blue Jays being the slight favorite, the odds flip in their favor. Toronto hasn’t played to its full capability all season, and there is no reason to think it’ll start now … well other than “on paper.” I’ll back “on paper.”
Fulghum: Blue Jays (-114) and Phillies (-200). Both of these picks in the Wild Card round come down to decided pitching advantages. For Toronto, Kevin Gausman is a true shut down ace with a dominant 31.1 K% this season. Minnesota’s lineup is not only not healthy, but also likes to swing and miss. If the Toronto bats live up to expectation based on name (looking at you George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), then they should be able to take this series.
Philadelphia was one of the hottest teams in baseball the second half of the season mainly due to their offense finally starting to click. With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola providing two starts in this series, I like the Phillies chances of advancing to the NLDS.
World Series matchup predictions
American League champion: Houston (+200), Baltimore (+280), Tampa Bay (+500), Texas (+700), Minnesota (+800), Toronto (+800) National League champion: Atlanta (+115), Los Angeles (+225), Philadelphia (+675), Milwaukee (+900), Arizona (+1800), Miami (+1800)
Cockcroft:Philadelphia Phillies (+675) and Toronto Blue Jays (+800): The Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers (+950) and Blue Jays have appealing odds in a postseason that could be more of a toss-up than people think. I’ll take the Phillies, less of a “dark horse” this year than last but with a stronger roster this year than last, and the Blue Jays, for those odds. It’s a 1993 rematch, 30 years later! Joe Carter would be proud. (And Eric would not, of my making the reference.)
Karabell: Philadelphia Phillies (+675) and Tampa Bay Rays (+500): Shockingly, I happen to agree the Phillies have a shot to do what they did a season ago, because they have a solid one-two rotation punch and what looks like the better bullpen than Atlanta. Yes, the Braves hit home runs. They score runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. is awesome. Bryce Harper is pretty good, too. Not surprisingly, I like Philadelphia’s odds to represent the NL again. In the AL, I like the Rays. Tampa Bay is a deep team with plenty of its own power and a strong, matchup bullpen. How about a 2008 WS rematch?
Zola: Milwaukee Brewers (+900) and Toronto Blue Jays (+800): Most like to refer to the Brewers’ “Big Two.” Freddy Peralta begs to differ. Milwaukee’s front three can hang with anyone. Sure the Brewers’ hitting is pedestrian, but they have enough to score ample runs in playoff baseball, and the bullpen can get the job done. As mentioned previously, the Toronto roster has all the necessary parts; they just need to come together at the right time.
Cockcroft: Phillies (+1400): I picked the Braves to win on our baseball pages, but I really like the Phillies’ World Series odds — even more so than I do as simply National League champions. Many of the traits that took this team deep into October last year remain, and the aforementioned flaws that have cropped up for many of the popular contenders — this year’s Dodgers and Astros, for example, are not their 2022 models — make speculating on a midtier World Series pick (including the Rangers, Brewers or Blue Jays) potentially lucrative.
Karabell: The Phillies and Rays (+1200) stand out as bargains with their odds, as do the Brewers (+1800) and Blue Jays (+1800). Really, a wild-card team can win this World Series. Even the top teams are flawed in some way.
Fulghum: I get the appeal of the Phillies at +1400 based on what they did last postseason and how they closed out the final couple months this regular season, but now that the Astros were able to fall into a wild card bye and added Justin Verlander at the deadline, it seems like they’re primed for another deep run. If I was only making one bet in this market, I think it would be Houston at +500.
Zola: To be consistent, this should be one of the teams backed to make the World Series. If my narrative is the Blue Jays (+1800) come together in the postseason, they should be who I back to win the whole thing.
World Series MVP
Cockcroft: Michael Harris II (+3300). Here’s where you can get some good value on one of the Braves, my straight-up pick to win it all. Harris was a second-half dynamo, with .325/.356/.522 numbers in 71 games, earning himself higher lineup placement than his previous bottom-of-the-order position in the process. He’ll need to shake the memory of what was a forgettable 2022 division series showing (1-for-14, no extra-base hits, two strikeouts). Spencer Strider (+2200), the probable October staff ace, deserves an honorable mention.
Karabell: Well, if I’m going to stubbornly go with the Phillies, then the odds on 1B Bryce Harper (+5000) and SP Zack Wheeler (+7500) seem fitting. Harper had a great October last season, and Wheeler was hardly pleased when he was removed in the sixth inning of Game 6 with a lead, which turned into his loss. Revenge!
Zola: It appears my betting lean is on the Blue Jays, so let’s go all-in and back Bo Bichette at (+5000) for the World Series MVP. He does things with some flair and plays shortstop, which can help in a subjective vote, and that gives him the edge over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+7500).
Fulghum: Since I like the Astros, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker make a lot of sense at +1000, but Alex Bregman is sitting there at +3300. Don’t pass that up if you believe this team is capable of winning it all. Last year, Bregman slashed .294/.379/.568 in 13 postseason games. If he can replicate those numbers, he’ll be in the mix. He’s already got two rings and an All-Star Game MVP trophy at home so we know he’s capable of rising to the occasion.
Other appealing bets
Cockcroft: Devin Williams as postseason saves leader (+1000). The Brewers are sure to be a popular underdog choice this postseason, thanks to their aforementioned rotational top three, but what also makes them compelling on the pitching side is their closer, Williams. As the playoff team that averaged the second-fewest runs per game on offense but with the best ERA, the Brewers will need to win many close games to advance to the title. Williams could play a Mariano Rivera-in-his-heyday critical postseason role for the 2023 Brewers.
Karabell: I do not think the Phillies sweep the Marlins. In fact, with excellent LHP Jesus Luzardo on the mound, Miami’s Game 1 odds (+143) are sweet.
Zola: championship-winning league: National (-130): Yes, I know the Blue Jays are in the American League, but those calls were based on the respective team odds. In an either/or, American vs. National when the odds are relatively close, I’ll support the league with the stronger overall field, and that’s the Senior Circuit.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
GLENDALE, Ariz. — Sometime around mid-August last year, Mookie Betts convened with the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ coaches. He had taken stock of what transpired while he rehabbed a broken wrist, surveyed his team’s roster and accepted what had become plainly obvious: He needed to return to right field.
For the better part of five months, Betts had immersed himself in the painstaking task of learning shortstop in the midst of a major league season. It was a process that humbled him but also invigorated him, one he had desperately wanted to see through. On the day he gave it up, Chris Woodward, at that point an adviser who had intermittently helped guide Betts through the transition, sought him out. He shook Betts’ hand, told him how much he respected his efforts and thanked him for the work.
“Oh, it ain’t over yet,” Betts responded. “For now it’s over, but we’re going to win the World Series, and then I’m coming back.”
Woodward, now the Dodgers’ full-time first-base coach and infield instructor, recalled that conversation from the team’s spring training complex at Camelback Ranch last week and smiled while thinking about how those words had come to fruition. The Dodgers captured a championship last fall, then promptly determined that Betts, the perennial Gold Glove outfielder heading into his age-32 season, would be the every-day shortstop on one of the most talented baseball teams ever assembled.
From November to February, Betts visited high school and collegiate infields throughout the L.A. area on an almost daily basis in an effort to solidify the details of a transition he did not have time to truly prepare for last season.
Pedro Montero, one of the Dodgers’ video coordinators, placed an iPad onto a tripod and aimed its camera in Betts’ direction while he repeatedly pelted baseballs into the ground with a fungo bat, then sent Woodward the clips to review from his home in Arizona. The three spoke almost daily.
By the time Betts arrived in spring training, Woodward noticed a “night and day” difference from one year to the next. But he still acknowledges the difficulty of what Betts is undertaking, and he noted that meaningful games will ultimately serve as the truest arbiter.
The Dodgers have praised Betts for an act they described as unselfish, one that paved the way for both Teoscar Hernandez and Michael Conforto to join their corner outfield and thus strengthen their lineup. Betts himself has said his move to shortstop is a function of doing “what I feel like is best for the team.” But it’s also clear that shouldering that burden — and all the second-guessing and scrutiny that will accompany it — is something he wants.
He wants to be challenged. He wants to prove everybody wrong. He wants to bolster his legacy.
“Mookie wants to be the best player in baseball, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t want that,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “I think if you play shortstop, with his bat, that gives him a better chance.”
ONLY 21 PLAYERS since 1900 have registered 100 career games in right field and 100 career games at shortstop, according to ESPN Research. It’s a list compiled mostly of lifelong utility men. The only one among them who came close to following Betts’ path might have been Tony Womack, an every-day right fielder in his age-29 season and an every-day shortstop in the three years that followed. But Womack had logged plenty of professional shortstop experience before then.
Through his first 12 years in professional baseball, Betts accumulated just 13 starts at shortstop, all of them in rookie ball and Low-A from 2011 to 2012. His path — as a no-doubt Hall of Famer and nine-time Gold Glove right fielder who will switch to possibly the sport’s most demanding position in his 30s — is largely without precedent. And yet the overwhelming sense around the Dodgers is that if anyone can pull it off, it’s him.
“Mookie’s different,” third baseman Max Muncy said. “I think this kind of challenge is really fun for him. I think he just really enjoys it. He’s had to put in a lot of hard work — a lot of work that people haven’t seen — but I just think he’s such a different guy when it comes to the challenge of it that he’s really enjoying it. When you look at how he approaches it, he’s having so much fun trying to get as good as he can be. There’s not really any question in anyone’s mind here that he’s going to be a very good defensive shortstop.”
Betts entered the 2024 season as the primary second baseman, a position to which he had long sought a return, but transitioned to shortstop on March 8, 12 days before the Dodgers would open their season from South Korea, after throwing issues began to plague Gavin Lux. Almost every day for the next three months, Betts put himself through a rigorous pregame routine alongside teammate Miguel Rojas and third-base coach Dino Ebel in an effort to survive at the position.
The metrics were unfavorable, scouts were generally unimpressed and traditional statistics painted an unflattering picture — all of which was to be expected. Simply put, Betts did not have the reps. He hadn’t spent significant time at shortstop since he was a teenager at Overton High School in Nashville, Tennessee. He was attempting to cram years of experience through every level of professional baseball into the space allotted to him before each game, a task that proved impossible.
Betts committed nine errors during his time at shortstop, eight of them the result of errant throws. He often lacked the proper footwork to put himself in the best position to throw accurately across the diamond, but the Dodgers were impressed by how quickly he seemed to grasp other aspects of the position that seemed more difficult for others — pre-pitch timing, range, completion of difficult plays.
Shortly after the Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees to win their first full-season championship since 1988, Betts sat down with Dodgers coaches and executives and expressed his belief that, if given the proper time, he would figure it out. And so it was.
“If Mook really wants to do something, he’s going to do everything he can to be an elite, elite shortstop,” Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said. “I’m not going to bet against that guy.”
THE FIRST TASK was determining what type of shortstop Betts would be. Woodward consulted with Ryan Goins, the current Los Angeles Angels infield coach who is one of Betts’ best friends. The two agreed that he should play “downhill,” attacking the baseball, making more one-handed plays and throwing largely on the run, a style that fit better for a transitioning outfielder.
During a prior stint on the Dodgers’ coaching staff, Woodward — the former Texas Rangers manager who rejoined the Dodgers staff after Los Angeles’ previous first-base coach, Clayton McCullough, became the Miami Marlins‘ manager in the offseason — implemented the same style with Corey Seager, who was widely deemed too tall to remain a shortstop.
“He doesn’t love the old-school, right-left, two-hands, make-sure-you-get-in-front-of-the-ball type of thing,” Woodward said of Betts. “It doesn’t make sense to him. And I don’t coach that way. I want them to be athletic, like the best athlete they can possibly be, so that way they can use their lower half, get into their legs, get proper direction through the baseball to line to first. And that’s what Mookie’s really good at.”
Dodger Stadium underwent a major renovation of its clubhouse space over the offseason, making the field unusable and turning Montero and Betts into nomads. From the second week of November through the first week of February, the two trained at Crespi Carmelite High School near Betts’ home in Encino, California, then Sierra Canyon, Los Angeles Valley College and, finally, Loyola High.
For a handful of days around New Year’s, Betts flew to Austin, Texas, to get tutelage from Troy Tulowitzki, the five-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove Award winner whose mechanics Betts was drawn to. In early January, when wildfires spread through the L.A. area, Betts flew to Glendale, Arizona, to train with Woodward in person.
Mostly, though, it was Montero as the eyes and ears on the ground and Woodward as the adviser from afar. Their sessions normally lasted about two hours in the morning, evolving from three days a week to five and continually ramping up in intensity. The goal for the first two months was to hone the footwork skills required to make a variety of different throws, but also to give Betts plenty of reps on every ground ball imaginable.
When January came, Betts began to carve out a detailed, efficient routine that would keep him from overworking when the games began. It accounted for every situation, included backup scenarios for uncontrollable events — when it rained, when there wasn’t enough time, when pregame batting practice stretched too long — and was designed to help Betts hold up. What was once hundreds of ground balls was pared down to somewhere in the neighborhood of 35, but everything was accounted for.
LAST YEAR, BETTS’ throws were especially difficult for Freddie Freeman to catch at first base, often cutting or sailing or darting. But when Freeman joined Betts in spring training, he noticed crisp throws that consistently arrived with backspin and almost always hit the designated target. Betts was doing a better job of getting his legs under him on batted balls hit in a multitude of directions. Also, Rojas said, he “found his slot.”
“Technically, talking about playing shortstop, finding your slot is very important because you’re throwing the ball from a different position than when you throw it from right field,” Rojas explained. “You’re not throwing the ball from way over the top or on the bottom. So he’s finding a slot that is going to work for him. He’s understanding now that you need a slot to throw the ball to first base, you need a slot to throw the ball to second base, you need a slot to throw the ball home and from the side.”
Dodgers super-utility player Enrique Hernandez has noticed a “more loose” Betts at shortstop this spring. Roberts said Betts is “two grades better” than he was last year, before a sprained left wrist placed him on the injured list on June 17 and prematurely ended his first attempt. Before reporting to spring training, Betts described himself as “a completely new person over there.”
“But we’ll see,” he added.
The games will be the real test. At that point, Woodward said, it’ll largely come down to trusting the work he has put in over the past four months. Betts is famously hard on himself, and so Woodward has made it a point to remind him that, as long as his process is sound, imperfection is acceptable.
“This is dirt,” Woodward will often tell him. “This isn’t perfect.”
The Dodgers certainly don’t need Betts to be their shortstop. If it doesn’t work out, he can easily slide back to second base. Rojas, the superior defender whose offensive production prompted Betts’ return to right field last season, can fill in on at least a part-time basis. So can Tommy Edman, who at this point will probably split his time between center field and second base, and so might Hyeseong Kim, the 26-year-old middle infielder who was signed out of South Korea this offseason.
But it’s clear Betts wants to give it another shot.
As Roberts acknowledged, “He certainly felt he had unfinished business.”
PHOENIX — Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Blake Perkins is expected to miss the first month of the season after fracturing his right shin during batting practice.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy revealed the severity of Perkins’ injury before their Cactus League opener Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds.
“They’re estimating another three to four weeks to heal and a ramp-up of four to six weeks,” Murphy said. “So you’re probably looking at May.”
Perkins, 28, batted .240 with a .316 on-base percentage, six homers, 43 RBIs and 23 steals in 121 games last season. He also was a National League Gold Glove finalist at center field.
“Perkins is a big part of our team,” Murphy said. “The chemistry of the team, the whole thing, Perk’s huge. He’s one of the most loved guys on the club, and he’s a great defender, coming into his own as an offensive player. Yeah, it’s going to hurt us.”
Murphy also said right-handed pitcher J.B. Bukauskas has what appears to be a serious lat injury and is debating whether to undergo surgery. Bukauskas had a 1.50 ERA in six relief appearances last year but missed much of the season with a lat issue.
ALTUS, Okla. — Eddie Fisher, the right-hander whose 15-year major league career included an All-Star selection for the Chicago White Sox and a World Series title with Baltimore, has died. He was 88.
The Lowell-Tims Funeral Home & Crematory in Altus says Fisher died Monday after a brief illness.
Born July 16, 1936, in Shreveport, Louisiana, Fisher made his big league debut in 1959 for the San Francisco Giants. He later played for the White Sox and Orioles, as well as Cleveland, California and St. Louis.
Primarily a reliever over the course of his career, Fisher was an All-Star in 1965, when he went 15-7 with a 2.40 ERA and made what was then an American League record of 82 appearances. He was with the Orioles the following year when they won the World Series.