
Betting the MLB playoffs: wild card, World Series and MVP picks
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ESPN Betting Analysts
Oct 2, 2023, 05:28 PM ET
The 2023 MLB playoffs are here with the wild-card round beginning Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET. The American League best-of-three series will feature the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays, with the winner facing the Baltimore Orioles, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins playing for the right to square off with the defending champion Houston Astros in the division series. In the National League, the winner of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers series will play the Los Angeles Dodgers, while the Atlanta Braves await the winner of the showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins.
Are chalk plays the right move this October?
The past three World Series champions, the Atlanta Braves (+275, 2021 winner), Los Angeles Dodgers (+475, 2020 winner) and Houston Astros (+500, 2022 winner), are the top three in terms of title odds this October. They’re closely followed by the American League’s winningest team, the Baltimore Orioles (+650).
That said, each enters the postseason facing questions that might not have been present a few short weeks ago.
The Braves, considered the prohibitive favorites, have two key rotation members in Max Fried and Charlie Morton currently on the injured list.
The Dodgers, playing in their 11th straight October and winners of 10 division titles in that time, have a rotation fronted by 35-year-old Clayton Kershaw and with only one other active pitcher (Bobby Miller) who has made more than 12 starts for them.
The Astros squeaked into an AL West title on the regular season’s final day, but otherwise were a .500 team over the season’s final seven weeks.
The Orioles, meanwhile, learned on Saturday that closer Felix Bautista, a key cog in one of the game’s best bullpens, requires Tommy John surgery and will not be back to compete this postseason.
Short series, especially in the postseason’s early stages, can breed Cinderella stories. We saw it just last year with the Phillies’ charge into the World Series, and they might be a popular pick to do it again in 2023 (+1400 odds). The Brewers, behind their rotational top three (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta), might move the needle for bettors (+1800).
Who do our analysts pick to go all the way this October? Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell,Todd Zola and Tyler Fulghum share their picks.
Picks represent the analyst’s comfort with betting on the specified odds and does not imply bets they would make if odds weren’t considered. Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Wild-card round (best of 3)
Toronto Blue Jays (-114) vs. Minnesota Twins -105
Texas Rangers (+152) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+160) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-190)
Miami Marlins (+170) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
Cockcroft: Blue Jays (-114) and Rangers (+152): The Blue Jays might’ve opened as underdogs and transformed into slight favorites, but I still see value in them, with Kevin Gausman lined up to open that series and pretty good two-three men in Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt behind him. Additionally, the Blue Jays’ offense seems much more potent to me than its stat-sheet results indicated this year. Sure, the Twins have a solid one-two-three of their own in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray, but they also have a putrid October track record, and one that I think might again haunt them. The Twins have lost 15 consecutive postseason games — I do think that streak ends — and nine consecutive postseason series — I don’t think that gets snapped. Honorable mention goes to the Rangers, as the AL’s underdogs stand further out.
Karabell: Phillies (-200) and Brewers (-190) in the NL. Perhaps the odds are not so great, but I like the Phillies and Brewers to advance in the National League, and perhaps mirror what happened in the NL last season when the wild-card entrants knocked off teams with more wins to advance to the NL Championship Series. I will say that the odds on the Marlins are quite a bargain. They send lefties to the mound the first two games in Philly, and they could make things difficult for the home team, quickly.
Blue Jays (-114) in the AL: I want to pick the Twins because, let’s face it, the current players have nothing to do with the fact this franchise last won a playoff game when Eisenhower was president. (OK, it was 2004. Stop it.) The problem is several key hitters are injured (Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa), and even if they play this week, they might not be at full health. I take the Blue Jays, even though the odds aren’t so great for a road team, and the Rays in the AL.
Zola: Rays (-180) and Blue Jays (-114): The Rangers certainly played their way in with a strong September, but their first-half offense lived off an unsustainably high batting average with runners in scoring position. I’m also concerned injuries have stripped their rotation of ample quality arms and the bullpen is suspect. The Rays have as many injuries, but they have better bandages and are a team with a style to win in the playoffs. I was really hoping the Twins would be bigger underdogs as I think they could have pulled off the upset, but with the Blue Jays being the slight favorite, the odds flip in their favor. Toronto hasn’t played to its full capability all season, and there is no reason to think it’ll start now … well other than “on paper.” I’ll back “on paper.”
Fulghum: Blue Jays (-114) and Phillies (-200). Both of these picks in the Wild Card round come down to decided pitching advantages. For Toronto, Kevin Gausman is a true shut down ace with a dominant 31.1 K% this season. Minnesota’s lineup is not only not healthy, but also likes to swing and miss. If the Toronto bats live up to expectation based on name (looking at you George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), then they should be able to take this series.
Philadelphia was one of the hottest teams in baseball the second half of the season mainly due to their offense finally starting to click. With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola providing two starts in this series, I like the Phillies chances of advancing to the NLDS.
World Series matchup predictions
American League champion: Houston (+200), Baltimore (+280), Tampa Bay (+500), Texas (+700), Minnesota (+800), Toronto (+800)
National League champion: Atlanta (+115), Los Angeles (+225), Philadelphia (+675), Milwaukee (+900), Arizona (+1800), Miami (+1800)
Cockcroft: Philadelphia Phillies (+675) and Toronto Blue Jays (+800): The Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers (+950) and Blue Jays have appealing odds in a postseason that could be more of a toss-up than people think. I’ll take the Phillies, less of a “dark horse” this year than last but with a stronger roster this year than last, and the Blue Jays, for those odds. It’s a 1993 rematch, 30 years later! Joe Carter would be proud. (And Eric would not, of my making the reference.)
Karabell: Philadelphia Phillies (+675) and Tampa Bay Rays (+500): Shockingly, I happen to agree the Phillies have a shot to do what they did a season ago, because they have a solid one-two rotation punch and what looks like the better bullpen than Atlanta. Yes, the Braves hit home runs. They score runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. is awesome. Bryce Harper is pretty good, too. Not surprisingly, I like Philadelphia’s odds to represent the NL again. In the AL, I like the Rays. Tampa Bay is a deep team with plenty of its own power and a strong, matchup bullpen. How about a 2008 WS rematch?
Zola: Milwaukee Brewers (+900) and Toronto Blue Jays (+800): Most like to refer to the Brewers’ “Big Two.” Freddy Peralta begs to differ. Milwaukee’s front three can hang with anyone. Sure the Brewers’ hitting is pedestrian, but they have enough to score ample runs in playoff baseball, and the bullpen can get the job done. As mentioned previously, the Toronto roster has all the necessary parts; they just need to come together at the right time.
World Series winner
Brave (+275), Dodgers (+475), Astros (+500), Orioles (+650), Rays (+1200), Phillies (+1400), Rangers (+1600), Brewers (+1800), Blue Jays (+1800), Twins (+2000), Diamondbacks (+3000), Marlins (+3300)
Cockcroft: Phillies (+1400): I picked the Braves to win on our baseball pages, but I really like the Phillies’ World Series odds — even more so than I do as simply National League champions. Many of the traits that took this team deep into October last year remain, and the aforementioned flaws that have cropped up for many of the popular contenders — this year’s Dodgers and Astros, for example, are not their 2022 models — make speculating on a midtier World Series pick (including the Rangers, Brewers or Blue Jays) potentially lucrative.
Karabell: The Phillies and Rays (+1200) stand out as bargains with their odds, as do the Brewers (+1800) and Blue Jays (+1800). Really, a wild-card team can win this World Series. Even the top teams are flawed in some way.
Fulghum: I get the appeal of the Phillies at +1400 based on what they did last postseason and how they closed out the final couple months this regular season, but now that the Astros were able to fall into a wild card bye and added Justin Verlander at the deadline, it seems like they’re primed for another deep run. If I was only making one bet in this market, I think it would be Houston at +500.
Zola: To be consistent, this should be one of the teams backed to make the World Series. If my narrative is the Blue Jays (+1800) come together in the postseason, they should be who I back to win the whole thing.
World Series MVP
Cockcroft: Michael Harris II (+3300). Here’s where you can get some good value on one of the Braves, my straight-up pick to win it all. Harris was a second-half dynamo, with .325/.356/.522 numbers in 71 games, earning himself higher lineup placement than his previous bottom-of-the-order position in the process. He’ll need to shake the memory of what was a forgettable 2022 division series showing (1-for-14, no extra-base hits, two strikeouts). Spencer Strider (+2200), the probable October staff ace, deserves an honorable mention.
Karabell: Well, if I’m going to stubbornly go with the Phillies, then the odds on 1B Bryce Harper (+5000) and SP Zack Wheeler (+7500) seem fitting. Harper had a great October last season, and Wheeler was hardly pleased when he was removed in the sixth inning of Game 6 with a lead, which turned into his loss. Revenge!
Zola: It appears my betting lean is on the Blue Jays, so let’s go all-in and back Bo Bichette at (+5000) for the World Series MVP. He does things with some flair and plays shortstop, which can help in a subjective vote, and that gives him the edge over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+7500).
Fulghum: Since I like the Astros, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker make a lot of sense at +1000, but Alex Bregman is sitting there at +3300. Don’t pass that up if you believe this team is capable of winning it all. Last year, Bregman slashed .294/.379/.568 in 13 postseason games. If he can replicate those numbers, he’ll be in the mix. He’s already got two rings and an All-Star Game MVP trophy at home so we know he’s capable of rising to the occasion.
Other appealing bets
Cockcroft: Devin Williams as postseason saves leader (+1000). The Brewers are sure to be a popular underdog choice this postseason, thanks to their aforementioned rotational top three, but what also makes them compelling on the pitching side is their closer, Williams. As the playoff team that averaged the second-fewest runs per game on offense but with the best ERA, the Brewers will need to win many close games to advance to the title. Williams could play a Mariano Rivera-in-his-heyday critical postseason role for the 2023 Brewers.
Karabell: I do not think the Phillies sweep the Marlins. In fact, with excellent LHP Jesus Luzardo on the mound, Miami’s Game 1 odds (+143) are sweet.
Zola: championship-winning league: National (-130): Yes, I know the Blue Jays are in the American League, but those calls were based on the respective team odds. In an either/or, American vs. National when the odds are relatively close, I’ll support the league with the stronger overall field, and that’s the Senior Circuit.
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Sports
Auburn’s Freeze ‘at peace’ with cancer diagnosis
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April 9, 2025By
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Chris LowApr 8, 2025, 08:53 PM ET
Close- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
AUBURN, Ala. — About three months after his second straight losing season at Auburn, Hugh Freeze found out in February that he had prostate cancer.
“At the time, the only thing you hear is that ‘C’ word,'” Freeze told ESPN on Tuesday.
Admittedly rattled, and more scared for his family than anything else, Freeze has since settled on a course of treatment, and after getting some encouraging news recently from doctors that his form of cancer was low aggressive, he has decided to wait until January and let doctors reexamine his situation instead of having surgery.
“I’m only 55. We’re a family of faith, and I just didn’t feel like it was time to rush into surgery,” Freeze said. “I’m at peace with it.”
The same goes for his football team as Freeze enters his third season on the Plains. He’s by no means content with the results the past two seasons — and neither is he naïve about the lack of patience within the realm of SEC football — but Freeze was outspoken when he arrived that it would take three full recruiting classes to get Auburn back into championship contention. His first two have both been top-10 classes nationally.
“I think it’s as settled as we’ve been as a program, the continuity of our staff, the pieces of our staff that we’ve added and what we’ve been able to do in building our roster in high school recruiting and in the portal,” Freeze said. “Now, we’ve got to go compete and win some more games, but I don’t feel any sense of panic.
“We’re on our way to getting where we want to be and where we should be.”
Auburn last had a winning season in 2020, when it was 6-5, and has won more than eight games only twice (2017 and 2019) since playing for the national championship in 2013. The Tigers finished 5-7 last season.
Freeze said the support and commitment from Auburn chancellor Christopher Roberts and athletic director John Cohen couldn’t be stronger, and in the world of name, image and likeness, Auburn is going all-in on locking in key players financially. The payroll for the 2025 roster will exceed $20 million.
One of the key acquisitions was quarterback Jackson Arnold, who transferred from Oklahoma. Arnold was ESPN’s No. 2-ranked dual-threat quarterback prospect in the 2023 signing class, but he was benched for part of last season after some early struggles.
“One hundred percent, I needed a reset,” Arnold said. “It was just time to move on. I needed to go to a place where I was going to put myself in a better position. I’m never going to say anything bad about OU or any of the people there, but it just wasn’t a fit. And as the season went on, maybe it was them losing confidence in me or whatever, but I never doubted that I could play at this level and win at this level.”
Arnold said it was especially important to him to play for an offensive-minded head coach and one with a history of coaching and developing quarterbacks. Freeze said he plans to call the majority of the plays this season (although new offensive coordinator Derrick Nix might call some), and Freeze said he will spend more time with the quarterbacks on the practice field this fall.
“[Quarterbacks coach] Kent Austin is great,” Freeze said. “From fundamentals and coverage recognition and all that, he’s better than I am, but I think it’s vital that they’re hearing my thoughts, and I just think this fall it would be even more vital that Jackson is hearing my thoughts.”
As spring practice winds down this week for Auburn, Arnold said his rapport with the receivers grows stronger every practice. And for Freeze, he said he has seen a “monumental difference” in the receivers, particularly with the addition of transfers Eric Singleton Jr. from Georgia Tech and Horatio Fields from Wake Forest.
“We’ve got more depth, and there’s a maturity factor, too,” Freeze said. “I know quarterbacks take the brunt of the deal, but there were times that [last year’s starter] Payton [Thorne] was ready to pull the trigger on something that should have been there and we didn’t run the right depth of a route or the right route.”
Cam Coleman, who averaged 16.2 yards per catch and had eight touchdown receptions a year ago as one of the more heralded true freshman receivers in the country, said his emphasis has been more consistency. He said the entire receiving corps has taken on a leadership role to push each other and hold each other accountable, which wasn’t necessarily the case a year ago.
“Every receiver brings something different to the table, and our identity is we’re going to catch anything and everything, by any means as possible,” Coleman said. “That’s no matter if we make the quarterback look good or the quarterback makes us look good. We’re going catch the ball and make things happen.”
Singleton’s speed should complement Coleman’s ability to win one-on-one battles down the field, and Malcolm Simmons is equally explosive. He returns for his sophomore season after catching 40 passes last season. The 6-3 Coleman said he’s up to 205 pounds.
“Good luck. That’s all I can tell anybody trying to cover him,” Singleton said of Coleman.
Arnold said his role is to come in and “play point guard” and that Freeze also likes his ability to extend plays. The Tigers struggled mightily to score last season. They finished 14th in the SEC in scoring offense (19.1 points per game) and were 13th in third-down conversions, while scoring just six rushing touchdowns in eight SEC games. But they did move the ball on offense and finished second in the league in yards per play (6.67 yards). Three of their seven losses last season were by a touchdown or less.
What plagued the Tigers were crippling turnovers, coming up empty on key third downs and not being able to finish drives — or even make field goals. They were 8-of-17 on field goal attempts in SEC play, but the good news is that regular kicker Alex McPherson is back after missing almost the entire past season a with gastrointestinal issues.
“We’re all in this together, and I know for a fact these coaches believe in me and they know I can do it, and in turn, I’ve been able to play a lot more,” Arnold said. “Mistakes are going to happen. No one’s going to be perfect, but my confidence is really high right now. I’m playing free and just being myself.”
Even with the cancer diagnosis, Freeze has also felt a sense of freedom. His players have seen it up close and personal.
“He’s out here every day, and it gives the whole team the sense that he cares, and that whatever he’s going through, he’s going to push through,” junior defensive end Keldric Faulk said. “It gives us the confidence to just ride behind him.
“The only difference I see is that he’s brought way more energy, and it’s contagious to the whole team.”
Freeze would tend to agree that his cancer diagnosis has helped him to narrow his focus, although life as an SEC head football coach tends to have that effect naturally.
“I don’t know. I think as much as anything it’s just been a reminder that every day is a gift, and man, I’m going to give my best to these kids, my family and our fans,” Freeze said. “That’s what I should be concerned about.”
Sports
Northwestern working to settle hazing lawsuits
Published
5 hours agoon
April 9, 2025By
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Adam RittenbergApr 8, 2025, 10:53 AM ET
Close- College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Northwestern is finalizing settlements with former athletes who filed hazing-related lawsuits against the university and former coach Pat Fitzgerald, whose $130 million wrongful termination lawsuit against the school is set to go to trial in November.
In a motion filed last week, requesting a continuation of the trial date in Fitzgerald’s claim, Northwestern stated it recently began mediation with the athletes that resulted in an undisclosed settlement currently being finalized. Northwestern said athlete plaintiffs “will be witnesses in the ongoing litigation” involving Fitzgerald.
“While the terms of the provisional settlement are confidential, we intend to continue to work through the remaining outstanding issues to finalize a settlement that will hopefully allow both sides to move forward in a positive way,” attorneys Patrick Salvi and Parker Stinar, who are representing some of the former football players, said in a statement.
Fitzgerald’s attorneys on Tuesday said Northwestern’s motion for continuation was denied, and that the trial date for his case remains set for Nov. 3. They have repeatedly requested earlier trial dates so that Fitzgerald, fired in July 2023 for cause, can return to coaching college football.
“Coach Fitzgerald committed no wrongdoing,” Fitzgerald’s attorneys Dan Webb and Matthew Carter said in a statement. “Despite extensive written and testimonial discovery, there remains no evidence to show or suggest that Coach Fitzgerald was aware of any hazing at Northwestern. The discovery has thus confirmed what Northwestern said through President Michael Schill both before and after Coach Fitzgerald’s termination: that there is no evidence that Coach Fitzgerald was aware of any hazing.”
Dozens of former athletes filed hazing-related lawsuits against Northwestern and Fitzgerald in 2023 and 2024. They cited sexualized acts and other troubling rituals that occurred during Northwestern’s preseason training camp and at other times.
In last week’s filing, Northwestern said that after repeated requests, attorneys representing the athletes responded Jan. 29, noting that 81 athletes had relevant information. Northwestern said it had conducted six depositions and has 33 more scheduled, and has identified 40 former athletes to be witnesses in its defense against Fitzgerald’s claim, as well as non-plaintiffs “identified as having information related to the hazing and other conduct in the football program during Fitzgerald’s tenure.”
The school requested the continuation so it could finish depositions with athletes and depositions or document requests with approximately 70 “third-party” individuals identified as having relevant information, including many who live outside of Illinois.
Northwestern fired Fitzgerald three days after announcing a two-week offseason suspension for the coach, following the completion of a university-commissioned investigation into allegations of hazing from a sole football player in late 2022. The investigation found that hazing had occurred in the program but that there was no evidence Fitzgerald knew about what had happened.
The player went public with his allegations to The Daily Northwestern and then ESPN, and Schill ultimately fired Fitzgerald amid significant backlash. Fitzgerald had led the program since 2006 as is Northwestern’s all-time winningest coach and a two-time national defensive player of the year at linebacker.
Fitzgerald filed his lawsuit in October 2023, claiming that Northwestern violated a verbal contract by firing him for cause, after agreeing to the suspension following the conclusion of its own investigation. He also claimed Northwestern and Schill violated his written contract. He’s seeking $68 million that remained on his contract, which ran through 2030, as well as future earnings losses of approximately $62 million. Fitzgerald has been a volunteer assistant for his son’s high school team but has not re-entered college coaching.
“Coach Fitzgerald has proven himself a staunch advocate of student well-being, including consistently emphasizing a zero-tolerance policy on hazing,” Webb and Carter’s statement reads. “He implemented and maintained some of the strongest anti-hazing programs and policies in collegiate sports.”
They added that every Northwestern player signed a hazing policy form before being allowed to practice, and that his actions to prevent hazing were “fully integrated” into the program.
“He continues to assert that Northwestern illegally terminated his employment, violated an oral contract, and defamed him, causing significant damage to his sterling reputation,” the attorney statement reads.
Former Northwestern offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian also sued the school for defamation and spreading false information in the wake of the hazing scandal. Bajakian’s case has been consolidated with Fitzgerald’s and also could go to trial. Bajakian spent the 2024 season at Utah and is currently offensive coordinator at Massachusetts.
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