Are Dodgers done? Will Astros join Rangers in ALCS? Where every division series stands
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adminThe six remaining division series teams take the field on Wednesday, so it’s a perfect time to take stock of what we’ve seen so far — and where the 2023 MLB playoffs could go from here.
In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers are on the brink of elimination after the No. 6-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks defied odds by sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card round, then claiming the first two games against a Dodgers team making its 11th consecutive postseason appearance. The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, are locked in a 1-1 battle after Atlanta pulled off a thrilling comeback win in Game 2.
In the American League, the Minnesota Twins also could see their October run come to an end, as the Houston Astros look to ride the momentum from their dominant Game 3 victory all the way to their seventh straight AL Championship Series. The Baltimore Orioles became the first team eliminated from the division series on Tuesday night after being swept by the red-hot Texas Rangers.
What will Day 5 of the division series bring? ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney and David Schoenfield break down some of the biggest questions moving forward.
Key links: Everything you need to know | Full postseason schedule | Picks
Dodgers-Diamondbacks
Arizona leads 2-0
Are the Dodgers … done?
Doolittle: Done? No. They aren’t the favorites to win the series any longer, but that’s just the math that goes with needing to win three straight games. The math is less severe here than it is for other teams in the 0-2 hole, because whatever happens in the series, the Dodgers are the superior team in talent and experience. They just need to get a starter out of the first couple of innings. Lance Lynn can do that. Chase Field is no longer a homer-friendly park, and maybe that will play to Lynn’s fly ball tendencies, which have become even more extreme since he joined the Dodgers.
Olney: Nah. Their offense is too good. And even in defeat, they created a lot of opportunities. The Dodgers will be hard-pressed to come back from down 0-2 and win the World Series, but they will put runners on base against Brandon Pfaadt. They will have chances. This is a team that scored more runs than anybody but the Braves during the regular season. The Dodgers have more than a puncher’s chance.
Schoenfield: Well, as Earl Weaver famously said, “Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.” Unfortunately for the Dodgers, that starting pitcher is Lynn, who led the majors with 44 home runs allowed. Thanks to that powerful offense, he did go 7-2 in his 11 starts with the Dodgers. But manager Dave Roberts certainly will have a quick hook and rely heavily on his bullpen once again — and hope for a lot of runs scored. And if the Dodgers win one, they’re back in the series, even if they’ll have to beat Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in Games 4 and 5.
If the Diamondbacks do advance, what shot do you give them against the Phillies or Braves in the NLCS?
Doolittle: The Diamondbacks would be decided underdogs, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win. Moment by moment, they’ve won virtually every possible tipping-point situation they’ve encountered so far in October. The belief is there, and their bullpen is rolling. Nevertheless, the Phillies and Braves are better teams, and there is a sizable gap between them and the still-forming Diamondbacks. If you want to put a number on it, I’d give both the Phillies and Braves around a 65% shot at beating Arizona.
Olney: The Braves and Phillies are in a different universe right now than all of the other teams in the postseason. And with the exception of the experienced Astros, it’s hard to imagine anyone beating the Phillies-Braves winner.
Schoenfield: The Diamondbacks held a decent chance at beating L.A. in large part because the three potential off days (yes, it’s silly and stupid to have three off days in a five-game series) meant they could start Kelly and Gallen in four of the five games. In a seven-game NLCS, they’ll have to dig much deeper into their rotation, and that’s a big problem. They’ll be about as big of an underdog as we’ve ever seen in a championship series no matter which team they might play.
Phillies-Braves
Series tied 1-1
The Braves finally stole back some momentum at the end of Game 2. What do they need to do to keep it heading to a raucous Citizens Bank Park in Philly?
Doolittle: They need to forget about those momentum-building moments. They were amazing, producing the best action we’ve seen so far in the postseason. But in the end, all they did was square a series between two comparable teams — and the Phillies still left Atlanta having swiped home-field advantage in the series. That game is done. The Braves need their as-of-now-unnamed Game 3 starter to put up a couple of early zeros and build from there.
Olney: They need to pick the right guy to open on the mound for them in Game 3 — and it’s not really about whether it’s a starter or a reliever. It’s about someone who can be calm in that wild atmosphere in Philadelphia. It’s incredible how many runs have been posted in the first inning in this postseason — 18% of all runs as compared to 12% in the regular season — and the Braves need to avoid giving up that big, crooked number in the first inning. They just need to make sure they get out of the gates nicely in Game 3.
Schoenfield: Get to Aaron Nola early, and force Phillies manager Rob Thomson to make some tough decisions with his bullpen. Nola had long ball issues this season, surrendering 32 in his 32 starts in the regular season — although he has been better down the stretch in that department, and he pitched seven scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins in the wild-card series. Nola was pretty solid against the Braves this season, allowing seven runs and three home runs across 18 innings in three starts. He had similar numbers last season and also allowed just one unearned run in beating Atlanta in the playoffs. So, the Braves haven’t exactly figured him out.
In a series full of stars, which one player will most decide which team moves on from here?
Doolittle: It’s going to be a reliever, right? That’s playoff baseball, circa 2023. Austin Riley‘s clutch homer came off Jeff Hoffman. And Hoffman has been terrific this season. But that was the biggest moment of the playoffs to that point, and it involved a guy who was released in spring training. So which reliever? Let’s say Craig Kimbrel. Despite Game 2, I’m still high on Thomson’s bullpen, but Kimbrel at the back is the guy I worry about most. I don’t know if it will be the Phillies or the Braves whom Kimbrel will boost, but he’ll be involved one way or another.
Olney: I mean, there’s no wrong pick, right? There are so many candidates — but I’ll be Captain Obvious and go with Bryce Harper. He is competing with Carlos Correa and Yordan Alvarez for The Guy Most Locked In this October.
Schoenfield: I think we’re going five games, so that would set up a Game 2 rematch between Zack Wheeler and Max Fried. (Oh, those off days.) I think Wheeler dominates again — except this time, Thomson doesn’t leave him in a couple of batters too long, and the Phillies’ bullpen hangs on.
Twins-Astros
Houston leads 2-1
How much has Houston’s playoff experience vs. Minnesota’s relative lack of it factored into the series?
Doolittle: I don’t really think experience has much to do with it in this case. The Astros as a group have a ton of postseason experience because they are talented, confident and completely unflappable. So they end up winning in the postseason every year. Those qualities represent who they have always been, not who they have become. The Twins are a good team, but they won 87 games in baseball’s worst division. They just weren’t on the same level as the Astros.
Olney: It’s not that the Twins are inexperienced. It’s just that the Astros are that good and have emerged from their regular-season slumber. It’s worth repeating: These Astros, trying to become the first team since the Yankees from 1998 to 2000 to win back-to-back titles, remind me a lot of those New York clubs in that they are much closer to their true selves once the postseason begins. The Astros need that playoff and World Series adrenaline, just as those Yankees’ teams started to need in it in 1999 and 2000. As former Yankees pitcher and current Astros broadcaster Mike Stanton said in a conversation recently, it’s human nature.
Schoenfield: I’m going with nonfactor. The Twins led the majors in strikeouts as a pitching staff; that was a good sign heading into the playoffs. But their hitters also led the majors in strikeouts; that was the bad sign. Sonny Gray also got rocked in Game 3, and he’s one of the Twins with postseason experience (including a good start against the Toronto Blue Jays in the wild-card round).
If the Astros go to a seventh straight ALCS, how impressive of a feat is that?
Doolittle: Tremendous. An all-timer. The counterpoint to their consistent October success is the Dodgers. L.A. does everything right and is so consistent you can write their name on the NL bracket in spring training and use ink to do it. The Dodgers have made some runs; they have won pennants and a title during this era. But they aren’t a constant like the Astros. You just should not be able to manifest your excellence in one short series after another as the Astros have done for so long now. Truly remarkable.
Olney: In the recent PBS documentary about the franchise, former Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said Houston has a dynasty. I’m not sure about that; you need at least one more title to qualify, I think. But a seventh straight AL Championship Series would be remarkable because of the consistency required, and the Astros have been doing that through a ton of turnover, from Luhnow to a change in managers to losing George Springer and Correa.
Schoenfield: Given the nature of the modern MLB playoffs, with so many rounds and the inherent random nature of short series, it would be an unbelievably impressive accomplishment to get there seven years in a row. And given that four of those Astros squads won more than 100 games, this team is hardly the best of the group, but it keeps finding ways — first to make the playoffs, then to pull out the division title on the season’s final day and now perhaps to beat the Twins. I wouldn’t bet against the Astros.
Orioles-Rangers
Texas wins series 3-0
How do you see the Rangers faring in the ALCS?
Doolittle: This is so hard for me to wrap my head around. The Rangers look very much like a team for which the light has come on. But if they end up facing Houston — well, I was at those games in which they were outscored 39-10 over three days at Globe Life Field in early September. I don’t expect that kind of rout to happen again, but let’s just say I’ll like the Rangers’ chances a lot better if the Twins are able to come back against Houston in the other series.
Olney: If the Braves-Phillies are Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier, then the Rangers-Astros could be Marvin Hagler-Thomas Hearns. Two strong offensive teams from different parts of Texas, tons of experience on both sides — and the Rangers would be underdogs, because the Astros have a little better pitching, especially with Cristian Javier emerging. But Texas would be favorites against the Twins.
Schoenfield: It’s hard to believe this was the lineup that just over a week ago blew the division title in the final series of the season by losing three of four at the Seattle Mariners and getting shut out twice in the process. Corey Seager is absolutely locked in, rookie Evan Carter has been so hot that manager Bruce Bochy has moved him to fifth in the order and there is plenty of right-handed power with the likes of Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Josh Jung. The biggest key, however: After returning from an injury and struggling in September, Nathan Eovaldi has delivered back-to-back strong outings in the postseason. I’m still not completely sold on the bullpen, but I see it as a coin flip against the Astros and have the Rangers as favorites over the Twins too.
Despite sending three teams to the playoffs, the AL East didn’t manage a single victory in the postseason. Is the division overrated?
Doolittle: Sure. It always is. Now it’s not the worst division, by any stretch. That’s the AL Central or the NL Central, but it’s a Central of some sort. The AL East had four winning teams and a last-place team that won 78 games — and its members did occupy half the AL bracket. But when the East is good, we start seeing speculations about “best divisions ever” and such. It’s a good division, and the teams in it are not at fault for the hype-based expectations that surround some of its members.
Olney: I think the division is just down, in an outlier year. The Yankees were huge disappointments; the Boston Red Sox were who we thought they were; and the Blue Jays haven’t taken advantage of their window yet. I’d bet that with the maturation of the Orioles, a healthier Yankees team and a more determined Boston franchise, the division will quickly rebound.
Schoenfield: It’s playoff baseball. The first rule of playoff baseball: Don’t read too much into what happened. It was still the best division in the regular season: The only non-East AL team with a winning record against the East was the Rangers. Meanwhile, the AL East was 48 games over .500 against the AL Central, 18 games over .500 against the AL West and 22 games over .500 in interleague action. The Orioles, Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays just all stunk it up in October.
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Sports
‘There was no other option’: The story of Ohio State’s title run from preseason hype to crushing defeat to playoff champion
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2 hours agoon
January 21, 2025By
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Andrea Adelson, ESPN Senior WriterJan 20, 2025, 11:08 PM ET
Close- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
ATLANTA — Seven weeks and two days ago, Ohio State coach Ryan Day watched as Michigan planted its flag at midfield inside the Horseshoe, chaos ensuing: fans chanting “F— Ryan Day,” his players both fighting back and walking around dazed, the rival Wolverines celebrating.
Seven weeks and two days ago, what unfolded Monday night felt unimaginable: joy, celebration, triumph, Day right in the middle, the whole of Buckeye Nation now back in his corner.
After that devastating loss to Michigan, the first expanded 12-team College Football Playoff delivered a chance at salvation. And the Buckeyes took advantage from the start, outscoring their four postseason opponents by a combined score of 145-75, culminating with a 34-23 victory over Notre Dame for the program’s seventh national championship.
“No great accomplishments are ever achieved without going through adversity,” Day said. “That’s just the truth.” No team has benefited from the College Football Playoff quite like the Buckeyes.
In 2014, they were ranked No. 4 in the inaugural four-team field, beating No. 1 Alabama, then No. 2 Oregon behind third-string quarterback Cardale Jones to hoist the first championship trophy of the CFP era.
This year, they were the No. 8 seed in the first 12-team field. The loss to Michigan — Ohio State’s fourth straight in the series — kept them out of the Big Ten title game. And in any previous season, it would have kept them out of the playoff. But thanks to playoff expansion, the Buckeyes made it when the bracket was revealed Dec. 8.
The future still looked bleak.
Speculation swirled around Day and whether his disgruntled fan base could accept another failure in a season built for a national championship run.
A team meeting after the Michigan loss got heated. Feelings were hashed out, grievances aired.
“There’s multiple ways that you can respond to adversity in life, and that adversity brought us closer as an entire group,” receiver Emeka Egbuka said. “We were able to lift each other up in that moment, and we’ve gotten stronger because of it.”
Michigan would be their catalyst.
TWELVE MONTHS AND 12 days ago, cornerback Denzel Burke made sure to watch the 2024 national championship game all the way to the end so he could see rival Michigan hold up the trophy following a 34-13 win over Washington. He had the game on his phone while at dinner with teammate Lathan Ransom and was so hurt, he had to walk into the bathroom to cool off.
There is no fun in losing to your rival; even less fun is watching your rival win the national championship. Michigan beat Ohio State and won it all last season, thanks in part to a veteran group that put off the NFL to return to school to try and win a championship.
Day wanted the same for the Buckeyes in 2024. To get the better of Michigan, Ohio State would have to be like Michigan. Well, at least in one way. With $20 million to spend in NIL, Ohio State went about convincing its top players to return to school, too. Defensive end Jack Sawyer, who grew up in nearby Pickerington, Ohio, as a huge Buckeyes fan, led the charge.
Within short order, he and seven others — defensive end JT Tuimoloau, tailback TreVeyon Henderson, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, defensive tackle Ty Hamilton, offensive lineman Donovan Jackson, Egbuka and Burke — put off the NFL to come back to school for one more year.
“It just kind of fueled our fire a little bit to come back and hoist the national championship trophy,” Burke said. “To be able to see them win it all like that, we wanted a piece of that.”
Player retention and development has been huge: The Buckeyes started 19 players who signed with the school and have combined for more than 520 starts. Many in the signing class of 2021, the foundation for this team, returned because they had contributed nothing to the trophy case inside the Woody Hayes Athletic Center and refused to let their careers end that way.
“This might be the biggest example of selflessness I have ever been a part of,” linebacker Cody Simon said. “So many guys had the opportunity to go first round, second round in the NFL draft. They all came back to play another year together.
“I commend all those guys who made a decision and all the guys who came in who were outside of our program because it takes a lot to get this all to work together.”
Day signed a top-tier recruiting class, including receiver Jeremiah Smith, and brought in key transfer portal acquisitions — quarterback Will Howard, safety Caleb Downs and running back Quinshon Judkins chief among them. Ohio State would enter 2024 as one of the most talented teams in the country. Expectations were clear from the start.
“At this time last year, which is crazy to think about, guys decided to come back and put their personal goals aside to achieve this goal,” Ransom said. “It’s pretty special. I hate when people say, ‘Win or bust,’ but we did everything to come back to win.”
Day knew he needed something to help his players best understand the journey on which they were about to embark. In their first preseason meeting last year, Day showed the team a picture of a lighthouse in the middle of a storm in the ocean. The lighthouse keeper, he told them, was counting on the lighthouse to be built with the right foundation to withstand the storm.
Then he told the story of three bricklayers building St. Paul’s Cathedral, and the importance of each brick being laid the right way. He told the players that every day after practice, he would hand out a scarlet and gray brick to one player. It would be his job to build a foundation for what was to come. The bricks could not be placed randomly or haphazardly. Building that foundation had to be done the right way.
Every day as players walked out to practice, they had a view of the bricks being stacked. Every day on the way back into the locker room, they had a view of the bricks being stacked. Over 100 bricks are now stacked perfectly, forming a foundational wall. “That wall is built for anything — the fire that we went through, the perseverance that we have, and here we are now,” Burke said.
“Storms are going to come,” Day said. “How is the foundation built? Was it built on a true foundation of rock or of sand? We knew those storms were coming. We didn’t know when, but that was ultimately going to allow us to withstand those storms.”
THE BIGGEST STORM came Nov. 30. The Buckeyes entered their rivalry game against Michigan as a 20.5-point favorite, ranked No. 2 in the CFP and with massive matchup advantages up and down the depth chart.
The Wolverines lost nearly every key offensive player from their 2023 national championship team and were 6-5 under first-year coach Sherrone Moore. Two of their best players were injured for the Ohio State game.
Finally, the Ryan Day Redemption Arc would be written.
Then the game kicked off. Michigan dominated up front, handcuffing Ohio State from doing much. Inexplicably, the Buckeyes could not get the ball to Smith to make enough of a difference, and Ohio State was shut out in the second half at home for the first time in 13 years.
When the final seconds ticked off the clock, Michigan had won 13-10 in one of the biggest upsets in the history of the rivalry. As the Wolverines planted their flag at midfield, Sawyer came charging up, tearing the Michigan flag down. He could be heard on video screaming, “They’re not f—ing planting the flag again on our field, bro!”
Day stood there silently, seemingly in disbelief. Though he ranks No. 1 among active head coaches in win percentage, Day has been judged by one thing: his record against Michigan. Day has gone 47-1 against all other Big Ten opponents in his career. But what did he do against the Wolverines? To date, he is 1-4. As a result, Ohio State has not won a Big Ten title since the truncated 2020 COVID-19 season, a year in which the rivals did not play.
Vitriol was directed at both Day and his players in the immediate aftermath of this season’s Michigan loss, and sports talk focused on whether Day needed to win the national championship to save his job. Athletic director Ross Bjork tried to quell the speculation when he gave a vote of confidence to Day in December, telling 97.1 The Fan in Columbus, “The season’s not over. The book is not closed.”
In that same interview, Bjork asked his Ohio State fans not to sell their tickets to Tennessee fans for their first-round playoff game in Columbus.
“We knew that we could play better than what we presented,” guard Donovan Jackson said. “So having people tell us we’re trash, terrible, garbage, half of us should transfer, half of us should leave the state of Ohio. No, we know how good we are.”
IN THE FOUR-TEAM CFP era, Ohio State made five playoff appearances and finished ranked No. 5 or 6 three other times. In fact, the Buckeyes ranked in the top seven in every final CFP poll, including No. 7 last year at 11-1. That lone loss to Michigan precluded them from making the four-team field.
The loss to Michigan this year served a far different purpose.
“The new format has allowed our team to grow and build throughout the season, and as much as losses hurt, they really allow us as coaches and players to take a hard look at the issues and get them addressed,” Day said.
The team meeting after the Michigan game got loud and emotional. Fingers were pointed, mistakes were rehashed, but players and Day took accountability. In times of great adversity, either you fold under the pressure or you rise to greatness. Ohio State chose not to break.
“There was no other option for us,” Simon said. “You go from feeling sorry for yourself to now we’ve got to rewrite the history for this season and this team.”
Kickoff against the Vols came on a chilly night at the Shoe, three weeks removed from the Michigan loss. Nobody knew how the Buckeyes would respond.
The nation got its answer two minutes and 14 seconds into the game. Then four minutes later. Then five minutes after that. By the time the first quarter ended, Ohio State had a 21-0 lead as it overwhelmed what had been one of the best defenses in the country, while completely stymying Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava and his high-powered offense.
Day said after the 42-17 win, “You could tell from the jump that they had a look in their eyes that they were going to win this game.”
Next up: a rematch with No. 1 Oregon in the CFP quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl. The undefeated Big Ten champion Ducks handed the Buckeyes their first defeat back in October, after Howard lost track of the game clock while trying to drive for a game-winning score, running with four seconds left and sliding as time ran out in the 32-31 loss.
There would be no need for late-game heroics this time around. Once again, Ohio State bulldozed its way to a massive lead, going up 34-0 before winning 41-21. After two rounds, the Buckeyes had harnessed all their talent and potential and were playing like the “championship or bust team” many envisioned when the season began.
There was more to come. Before the semifinal against Texas at the Cotton Bowl, Day had a simple message for his team: “To leave a legacy, become your own legend.”
With the game on the line in the fourth quarter, leave it to the player who dreamed about winning an Ohio State national title as a little boy throwing a football in his backyard with his dad, to do just that.
Sawyer strip-sacked Quinn Ewers on fourth-and-goal from the 8 with 2:13 left, then returned the fumble 83 yards to put the game out of reach and give the Buckeyes a 28-14 win.
The image of Day standing silently next to a riled-up Sawyer after the Michigan game was replaced with the image of Day unclipping his headset and jumping into a giant bear hug from Sawyer on the sideline screaming, “YEAHHHHHHHHHHHH!” A hug so powerful, it appeared to break a camera the CFP had placed on Sawyer after the play.
“The resiliency of this team, from a month ago, it’s been incredible,” Sawyer said afterward. “I love Columbus. I love the state of Ohio. I love Ohio State football. I’m so fortunate to be playing in the national championship my last year here.”
Just like the semifinal, the national championship game needed a fourth-quarter play to seal the win. This time, it was Smith and his 57-yard reception with 2:29 left that ended any Notre Dame comeback hopes.
Ohio State trailed for the first time in this CFP after the Fighting Irish opened the game with a clock-busting drive that nearly lasted 10 minutes and ended with a Riley Leonard touchdown run.
Then the Buckeyes showed off their wealth of depth and talent during a critical portion of the game — the rest of the first half and start of the second — pulling ahead and proving right those who chose them in the preseason to bring home another national championship. Their offensive line opened up huge holes for Henderson and Judkins while allowing virtually no one to come near Howard. The Notre Dame defense was flummoxed — alternating between man and zone — unable to answer for Judkins nor for a mobile Howard, who was all too eager to take off when the running lanes opened. Ohio State converted all six of its third-down attempts in the first half, and Howard opened the game with 13 straight completions — a record for most completions to start a national championship game.
The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-7 lead after their first series of the third quarter and then held on against an inspired Notre Dame effort. Afterward, a raucous Ohio State crowd chanted Ryan Day’s name as he walked off the field.
They may not be able to call themselves Big Ten champions. They may not have a win over That Team Up North.
But the Buckeyes have something to celebrate that is theirs, and only theirs: the national championship.
Sports
UT, OSU open as betting favorites to win ’26 CFP
Published
3 hours agoon
January 21, 2025By
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David Purdum, ESPN Staff WriterJan 20, 2025, 11:20 PM ET
Close- Joined ESPN in 2014
- Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008
The top two favorites to win next season’s College Football Playoff will square off in Week 1, when Ohio State hosts Texas on Aug. 30.
The Longhorns and the defending-champion Buckeyes enter the offseason as the favorites to win the 2025-26 College Football Playoff at sportsbooks. Texas, which is poised to begin the Arch Manning era, opened as the national title favorite at +450 at ESPN BET, followed by the Buckeyes (+500) and Georgia (+600). Ohio State is the favorite at other sportsbooks, but those three teams top the early odds across the betting market.
Oregon and Penn State, each at +750, round out the teams with odds shorter than 10-1 in ESPN BET’s opening numbers.
Ohio State held off Notre Dame in Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship game, capping a dominant postseason run. The Fighting Irish opened at +1500 to win next season’s title at ESPN BET.
Manning is expected to be the Longhorns’ starting quarterback with Quinn Ewers declaring for the NFL draft. FanDuel has Manning as the second favorite to win next season’s Heisman Trophy, behind LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
The transfer portal has added to the challenges sportsbooks face when creating odds to win the following season’s national championship.
“We will take our power ratings for 2025 and make the proper adjustments to account for recruiting, returning production and transfer portal changes,” said Joey Feazel, a trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “It is a challenging process at times, but year after year, we are getting better at it.”
The preseason betting favorite to capture the national championship has not won it since Alabama in 2017.
Sports
Ohio State puts away Notre Dame for CFP crown
Published
3 hours agoon
January 21, 2025By
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior WriterJan 20, 2025, 11:20 PM ET
Close- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
ATLANTA — Maybe Ohio State football fans will like coach Ryan Day now.
Fifty-one days after suffering the worst loss of his career, Day guided the No. 8 Buckeyes to their first national championship in 10 years with a 34-23 victory over No. 7 Notre Dame in the CFP National Championship presented by AT&T on Monday night.
The Buckeyes led the Irish 31-7 midway through the third quarter, but the Irish kept fighting and pulled to within one score and a two-point conversion with just more than four minutes remaining.
Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard threw a 34-yard touchdown pass to Jaden Greathouse with 3:03 left in the third and tossed a two-point play to tailback Jeremiyah Love to make it 31-15. Then, after a late defensive stop, Leonard found Greathouse again for a 30-yard touchdown and Beaux Collins converted the two-point attempt to pull the Irish within 31-23 with 4:15 left.
The Buckeyes finally put the Irish away for good when quarterback Will Howard threw a deep ball to freshman Jeremiah Smith, who beat cornerback Christian Gray for a 56-yard gain to the Irish 10. That led to Jayden Fielding‘s 33-yard field goal that put the Buckeyes up 11 with 26 seconds left.
The victory was redemption for Day, whose team fell to rival Michigan, the so-called “School Up North,” for the fourth straight time in a stunning 13-10 defeat at home on Nov. 30. That loss, in which the Buckeyes were 21-point favorites, knocked them out of the Big Ten championship game.
But the defeat didn’t eliminate Ohio State from the first 12-team CFP, and the Buckeyes took down No. 9 Tennessee in the first round, No. 1 Oregon in the quarterfinals and No. 5 Texas in the semifinals before beating the Fighting Irish in their 16th game of the season.
“I say all the time to our players, the first time you got on a bike you didn’t just ride the bike, you fell down, and how quickly did you learn from falling down to get back on the bike to learn to ride a bike?” Day said. “Well, it’s like that in life. You learn from going through difficult times like that.”
That was what made Monday night so special for Day and everyone around him.
“I think he’s done a great job, and I think he understands the weight of what this job is,” Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly said this week. “That comes with the territory. He’s shown who he is, and I think he’s done an unbelievable job in that situation.”
Ohio State’s players said Day accepted some of the blame for coming up short against Michigan again. But the shocking defeat might have been exactly what the Buckeyes needed in order to capture the seventh national title in program history.
“We had to address all the issues we had on the team,” Buckeyes defensive tackle Tyleik Williams said. “Everybody spoke up and just fixed those problems that we had. The leadership on this team is like I’ve never seen. That wouldn’t have happened a couple years ago.”
With a 70-10 record, Day now has the second-best winning percentage (87.5%) among coaches with at least 80 FBS games. Only Walter Camp, who coached at Stanford and Yale in the late 1800s, had a better winning percentage (90.7%).
And with Michigan having claimed the last four-team CFP following the 2023 season, the Big Ten captured consecutive national titles for the first time since 1940-42, when Minnesota won back-to-back titles and Ohio State added a third.
Monday’s game also was redemption for Howard, the Kansas State transfer who struggled in his first start against Michigan. Against Notre Dame, Howard completed 17 of 21 passes for 231 yards with two touchdown passes, while running 16 times for 57 yards.
Quinshon Judkins, an Ole Miss transfer, ran 11 times for 100 yards with three total touchdowns. Smith caught five passes for 88 yards with one score.
Leonard led the Irish with 255 yards on 22-for-31 passing with two touchdowns. Greathouse caught six passes for 128 yards with two scores.
This one was especially satisfying for the Big Ten because it came in the SEC’s backyard. The SEC was left out of the CFP title game for the second straight season, which hadn’t happened since 2004-05.
Notre Dame, which was trying to capture its first national championship since 1988, had its 13-game winning streak snapped. It was Ohio State’s seventh straight victory against the Irish.
After falling behind 7-0 on the game’s opening drive, Ohio State quickly answered with a touchdown of its own and never took its foot off the gas. On the Buckeyes’ first possession, TreVeyon Henderson ran for 19 yards to move the ball to the Notre Dame 40. Then Judkins ran for 15 after catching a screen pass from Howard.
On second-and-5 at the 8, Smith went into motion toward Howard. But then Smith stopped and ran back to the right. When Notre Dame’s secondary blew the coverage, Smith caught a pass in the flat and easily ran into the end zone to tie the score at 7-all with 14:10 left in the first half.
It was the first opening-drive touchdown the Notre Dame defense had allowed since a 49-7 win against Stanford at home on Oct. 12.
After two penalties backed the Irish up and forced them to punt on their next possession, Ohio State needed just two plays to move across the 50. Howard scrambled for 11 yards on third-and-5 at the Notre Dame 43. He ran for three more on third-and-2 at the 12. On the next play, Judkins stiff-armed linebacker Jaiden Ausberry to the ground and scored on a 9-yard run to make it 14-7 with 6:15 remaining.
Things unraveled for the Irish on their next possession. On third-and-5 at their 30, tight end Mitchell Evans went into motion. Center Pat Coogan‘s snap to Leonard hit Evans, who recovered the fumble at the Irish 26, forcing another punt.
The Buckeyes took over at their 20 with just under five minutes to play in the half. Howard delivered big on two third-and-7 plays. At the OSU 23, he threw a 19-yard pass to Brandon Inniss. At the OSU 45, he completed a 20-yarder to the sliding Carnell Tate.
On second-and-4 at the Notre Dame 6, Howard found Judkins, who was all alone in the end zone for another touchdown to make it 21-7 with 27 seconds to go in the half.
The Buckeyes had possession to start the second half, and they didn’t need long to score again. On the second play, Judkins burst through the line and ran past linebacker Jack Kiser. Cornerback Leonard Moore finally pulled down Judkins after a 70-yard gain to the Irish 5. Judkins scored his third touchdown of the game on a 1-yard run three plays later to give Ohio State a 28-7 lead.
The Irish failed to pull off a fake punt at their 33 on their next possession, leading to Fielding’s 46-yard field goal that made it 31-7.
Notre Dame’s first possession of the game couldn’t have been scripted any better. The Irish picked up six first downs over the first 9 minutes, 45 seconds, with Leonard running for four and throwing for two more.
When the Buckeyes stopped Leonard on third-and-1 at the Ohio State 45 with about 11 minutes to go in the quarter, coach Marcus Freeman left his offense on the field. Leonard ran three yards and a first down. On third-and-3 from the OSU 7, Ohio State pulled Leonard down for a 2-yard gain. The Irish went again on fourth-and-1, and Leonard lowered his shoulder and ran for 4 yards.
Leonard ran into the end untouched on the next play, giving the Fighting Irish a 7-0 lead with 5:15 to go in the first.
Unfortunately, that was about as good as it would get for Notre Dame’s offense in the first half. The Irish went three-and-out on their next two drives and gained just 18 yards the rest of the half.
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